Friday, September 28, 2012

Bad Data, No Problem! Changes and Explanations to Money Daily

In the bizarro-world equity market that prevails post-crash 2008, there's absolutely nothing better than a downward revision to GDP and a horrifying slump in durable orders to spark a one-off rally, and that's exactly what happened on Thursday, when the government (that sage group of geeks working on dilapidated, outdated computers, deciphering information through models long ago discredited and obsolete) decided (one assumes they don't actually crunch numbers, preferring to just "eyeball" the data) that GDP grew not at 1.7% in the second quarter, but actually at 1.3%.

Along with that dreadful assessment of the US economy came another report, this from another government geek gaggle (Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce), showing that durable orders for August fell 13.2% after registering a gain of 4.1% in July.

Notwithstanding that such reports are already ancient history by the time they reach the markets, such a decline - attributed mainly to Boeing, which saw orders fall from over 100 aircraft to one - would have sent markets into a dizzying tailspin in normal times. Being that these times are anything but normal, the insiders rigging the markets for maximum stupidity and ignorance deemed that a small rally was in order, damn the statistics and those annoying government numerological escapades into reality.

Obvious to anyone still in possession of sufficient grey matter between the ears t perform rudimentary cognitive analysis, this market is currently priced for boom times, not sad times, bad times or even moderately glad times, but poised to break out to new all-time highs in short order, presumably before the selection (Does anyone still believe that touch-screen voting computers with no paper trail actually record one's vote accurately?) of our new president, or, in the case that the current spendthrift-in-chief is chosen again, the same president (it's neater that way).

Well, sometimes markets are wrong. Not often, but in the case of blatant manipulation, dismissive of data and control by a select few, they can be way off, as, one might suspect, they are at the current time. How this disconnect with what suffices as reality on Main Street is rectified by Wall Street is for prognosticators and stuffy, beef-fed analysts. It is our contention that they are wrong, and will remain wrong until the Federal Reserve is as bankrupt financially as our congress is morally.

It may take some time, but the Fed's ZIRP and QEternity are certain to promote the progress toward complete insolvency with abundant zeal. Insisting on monetizing almost all government debt and sopping up underwater MBS at par when the true price (ah, price discovery, what a quaint concept) is something of the order of par-minus-some-large-percentage, the Fed is well along a course of self-destructive behavior that will be difficult, if even possible, to unwind.

Dislocations and distortions in just about all markets run rampant and it's only a matter of time before all hell breaks loose and the disjunction becomes a permanent plague on the global stage. Europe is no better, but they're holding the EU together with string and baling wire until, ostensibly, the US elections have passed. Then, they will be allowed to go into what most people would call a "haywire" phase which will make the protest and violent clashes of police and protesters this week look like a serene picnic by a lake.

It is not without some research and dedication to honest (though admittedly slanted) reportage and analysis that the writer/editor of this blog has come to the conclusion that no market can be trusted these days. It has long been suspected that elaborate schemes and rigging and excessive money-printing have delayed a complete unraveling, but now it is certain. Nothing is to be trusted. Not the words from a politician's lips, nor the babbling of baby-faced analysts suggesting that the S&P will exceed 1600 next year or other such pitiful pronouncements can be believed.

In truth, emerging black markets and underground or alternative economies are more trustworthy and honest, flourishing, as a matter of fact. When one trades an ounce of gold, silver or even weed for another tangible object, perhaps land or food, one can be fairly certain a fair deal has been had by both sides. Handshakes are preferred over contracts and disputes are settled the way our forefathers did, with understanding, tolerance and sometimes, force. Courts are the brunt of jukes, providing neither justice nor equitable decisions. Manned by small-minded, overpaid monarchs in robes, they exist as a facade today, a control fraud of the highest order. The judicial system in America has been broken for a long time. Now, when the general public must abide by an ever-changing and increasingly stifling code of behavior under the hubris of "law" and the elite abide only by what suits them, courts serve only those who submit to them, a number that lowers daily.

It is with this understanding of the mess that America has created for itself and congress and Wall Street perpetuate, that this writer has sought refuge in alternatives, especially in nature and farming. The differences are stark: when one looks for growth in equities, the patterns are iffy and distorted; when one grows a plant from seed, the bounty is straight and true. Stocks are high risk; botany is natural and risk is measured by the abundance or lack of sunlight, nutrients in the soil and avoidance of pestilence.

That's why some regular readers of this blog may have noticed a deviation from schedule over the past months, sometimes postings coming in very late (like this one) or not at all. It is because the author has been busy testing, cultivating and planning. Happily, it has all come together recently.

The transition from following crooked markets to reporting more and more on how Americans actually survive and prosper on their own will continue apace. Since the title of this blog is "Money Daily" an exploration of how one can be assured of one's daily "bread" - without "assistance" from brokers or online trading platforms and analytics - it seems appropriate to transition from reportage of the "official" economy to the real economy, the one that avoids taxation and interference as our forefathers would advise, the one that CNBC cannot and thus, does not, acknowledge. the one that forms the backbone of society and commerce.

You want "Money, Daily?" Buy a few chickens and sell the eggs. It's a start.

As of this writing, futures are tanking. Could the trend of stocks being up every Friday encounter a glitch, a crack in the fraud facade?

More on Monday.

Dow 13,485.97, +72.46(0.54%)
NASDAQ 3,136.60, +42.90(1.37%)
S&P 500 1,447.15, +13.83(0.96%)
NYSE Composite 8,303.74, 82.44 (1.06%)
ASDAQ Volume 1,473,257,750
NYSE Volume 2,766,946,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4033-1408
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 221-28

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