Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Washington Gets Back to Work (Kinda); Stocks Slump Despite (Kinda) Positive Data

Tuesday began with a flurry of good news.

First, over in Bizzarro-world(aka Europe), EU ministers were glad-handing and slapping each other's backs for another successful bailout of Greece (really, is this the third, fourth or fifth? Who's counting?), then, at 8:30 am ET, durable goods orders came in better than expected.

At 9:00 am ET, the September Case-Shiller Housing Index showed another in a series of positive gains for housing. Better yet, consumer confidence hit a four-and-a-half-year high, reported at 10:00 am ET.

So, why were the markets in such a sour mood, why did they end lower, and why were they not even lower than where they finished?

Ah, grasshopper, so many questions...

First, that somewhat refreshing zero print on durables was, in fact, pretty ugly, once one ventured to peek under the hood. As Zero Hedge reports, a continued collapse in durable goods new orders virtually guarantees that we're already in a recession, fiscal cliff or not (more on that canard later).

The Case-Shiller data, which showed the average price of a home purchase up by 3.6% nationally, has to be faded a little, only because housing is not stocks, and, even though home-buying is a relevant statistic, it matters little in the broader scheme of things, especially when the banks are keeping massive numbers of homes off the market in what's known as "foreclosure stuffing." Those in the know, really, really do know.

As far as the consumer confidence number, well, anybody who allows themselves to be branded a consumer for purposes of a survey can't be all that bright, after all.

In the case of the nth installment of the Greek bailout, there were scant details, the IMF hasn't signed off on it yet, the "deal" has to be approved by each member (17) country, so, the Euro sold off, anathema to US markets.

And then, about 2:30 pm ET, US lawmakers (that's a joke, son) emerged from talks over the fiscal cliff (that's not a pun, son) and did what everyone thought they'd do, since their track record is so plain and clear on this point: point fingers at the other side for not playing fairly.

Senate majority leader Harry Reid: "...little progress with Republicans..."

Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell: "...some difficulty turning off the campaign..."

Is it any surprise to anybody that working out a deal in DC was going to be a difficult, if not impossible, issue? After all, this whole "fiscal cliff" miasma started more than a year ago when the two sides failed to reach conciliatory postures on increasing the debt limit, and that puny increase of roughly $1.2 trillion is about to run out.

So, with no deal even remotely being discussed, the Titans of Wall Street started selling in earnest and continued selling into the close. They will probably still be selling when the opening bell rings on Wednesday and maybe even beyond that, because depending on Washington politicians to reach a concord on any matter of even insignificant importance is like getting cats and frogs to behave well together. It's just not going to happen.

Further, indispensable reading from the Wall Street Journal comes in the form of an editorial by Chris Cox and Bill Archer - respectively, former chairman of the House Republican Policy Committee and the Securities and Exchange Commission and former chairman of the House Ways & Means Committee - explaining why the fiscal cliff of $600 billion is merely a puff of smoke compared to the conflagration that is the real unfunded liabilities of Medicare and Social Security, refreshingly written in language even a protesting Wal-Mart worker could comprehend.

The saga continues to unfold tomorrow. Oh, by the way, so many people did their holiday shopping on Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Small Business Saturday and online on Cyber Monday this year, and, considering that since Turkey Day was so early this year that there's an extra week in the holiday shopping season, retail sales are going to be very slow for the one, two, three, four next weeks, until the last Saturday before Christmas (the 25th is a Tuesday), so, Happy Holidays! Free houses, Greek bailouts, durable goods and fiscal cliff-diving for everyone... including consumers!

Dow 12,878.13, -89.24 (0.69%)
Nasdaq 2,967.79, -8.99 (0.30%)
S&P 500 1,398.94, -7.35 (0.52%)
10-Yr Bond 1.65% -0.02
NYSE Volume 3,294,930,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,762,521,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2462-3041
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 154-40
WTI crude oil: 87.18, -0.56
Gold: 1,742.30, -7.30
Silver: 33.98, -0.156

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