Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Doubtful That Stocks Will Post Gains for 2015

Stocks took a nosedive into the close, with the three major indices closing at the lows of the session.

More than likely, traders are taking whatever they've made and walking away, as there is only one more day left to buy, sell or hold in 2015.

Crude got hit again and should test the December lows once January commences and the realization that global GDP is going to come in at under two percent or thereabouts for the year. As mentioned earlier, US fourth quarter GDP - which will be first estimated nearing the end of January - will have to measure in the range of 2.8%, which will be a real stretch, as holiday sales have not been very robust and housing - as evidenced again by pending home sales in November, came in at -0.9%, well below already tame estimates of a gain of 0.5%.

Crude Oil closed at 36.65, down 3.22%; Gold and silver were ambushed once more by the global cartel and the ten-year note finished just about where it did yesterday,yielding 2.30%, a pretty good jump of 7-8 pips from the close on Monday.

Natural Gas ended at 2.22, off 6.41%, after a big run-up based upon projections of a colder January for the Northeast via a European model. NOAA's three-month forecast for January-March remains unchanged, showing a warmer than normal winter for much of the Northeast and Midwest. So much for the rapid rise off generational lows. Like oil, there's an absolute glut of Nat Gas, a positive boost for consumers. Storage facilities in the Northeast are near record capacities.

If history is any guide, consumers will continue paying down debt if oil, automotive fuel and natural gas continue to trade at lowered levels. Wall Street may like like the idea, but Main Street is relishing the break from a near-decade of high prices.

Outside of the insanity that is the NASDAQ, a loser close on the S&P will send 2015 investors home flat or losers on the annum. The Dow looks to have no chance to finish in the black for the year.

Here are closing prices at the end of 2014:
S&P: 2,058.90
Dow: 17,823.07
NASDAQ: 4,736.05

Wednesday's closing prices:
S&P 500: 2,063.36, -15.00 (0.72%)
Dow, 17,603.87: -117.11 (0.66%)
NASDAQ, 5,065.85: -42.09 (0.82%)

It's not looking very pretty and January appears to be setting up for a dramatic sell-off.

Tomorrow: Money Daily's Forecasts for 2016

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