Saturday, August 19, 2017

Stocks Close Week Trending Lower; Trouble Brewing

After Thursday's all-around rout, traders entered Friday's session with apprehension and doubt, pondering whether the recovery facade had finally been broken, exposing the wickedly overpriced nature of global equites, and especially US stocks.

After a sluggish start to trading, stocks eventually turned positive midday, but failed to keep an even keel as the major indices fell in unison for the second consecutive day, ending the week on an ominous note.

While Friday's losses were nothing compared to those from the day prior, they were, nevertheless, a continuation of the downdraft since last week's North Korea scare sent stocks well below their prior highs and, in the case of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, below their 50-day moving averages.

In addition to the uniformity of the declines, stocks spent their second straight week on the downside for only the fourth time since the election of Donald Trump as president.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which had been the leader in the gains for the year, finished just above its 50-dma, the signs of slowing clearly evident.

With earnings reports from the second quarter winding down, analysts and traders will be focused on economic data, which has been - for years - less than stellar. Also of concern is the Federal Reserve's stance on tightening credit and unwinding their massive balance sheet, at the same time congress and the president will be engaging in budget and debt ceiling wrangling, making for a September to remember.

Still not an absolute trend - stocks are generally down only 2-3% the past two weeks - there will eventually come a time when the long bull run since March, 2009 will come to an end, and it figures not be be pretty. Anyone with short-term views will be taken aback at any sign of decay in the financial system, though, for those old enough and wizened enough to understand past history and general economics, a general pullback will be nothing more than the ordinariness of the business cycle, this one interrupted by the machinations and experimental policies of the global central bank cartel, led the the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), and the People's Bank of China (PBOC), which together have stuffed more than $16 trillion onto their collective balance sheets.

Unwinding this massive spending spree without collateral damage will be a monumental task, even for those empowered to oversee the world's financial order.

Fireworks are coming. Stock up on adult beverages and snacks.

At the Close, Friday, August 18, 2017:
Dow: 21,674.51, -76.22 (-0.35%)
NASDAQ: 6,216.53, -5.39 (-0.09%)
S&P 500 2,425.55, -4.46 (-0.18%)
NYSE Composite: 11,699.83, -12.88 (-0.11%)

For the Week:
Dow: -183.81 (-0.84%)
NASDAQ: -40.03 (-0.64%)
S&P 500: -15.77 (-0.65%)
NYSE Composite: -63.38 (-0.54%)

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