Wednesday, April 11, 2018

Stocks Continue See-Saw Movement After Outrageously Mindless Fed Minutes

As mentioned yesterday, sharp one-day gains (Dow was up 428 points on Tuesday) should be discounted, since a clear sign of a bear market was issued by the Dow Transportation Index on Monday.

That should be the overriding theme with any and all sharp moves higher (+1.00% or more), or, in more pedestrian terms, we've moved from Buy The Dip to Sell The Rip because there is little confidence amongst traders at this juncture.

Since this is also the heart of earnings season, expect some individual stocks to outperform and those with influence may help carry the market higher. Consensus is for very strong first quarter earnings reports and there is little reason to believe that they won't be good, though probably not as good as many are hoping.

From today's activity, it's clear that there is no follow-though on commitments by traders as the major indices were uniformly in the red today. The Dow Industrials are now clinging to a mere 76-point gain for the month, barely out of correction territory, following a first quarter that was a loser. Prospects for a second quarter rebound in the stock market appear to be increasingly slim and built on false hope from an equally false narrative.

It's also quite evident that the Federal Reserve System presidents and FOMC governors are either blind, stupid, or deceitful, because in the minutes from the March meeting - released today - they were unanimous in their opinion that the economy was improving and that inflation was growing when the actual condition only mildly supports either viewpoint. Outside the rose-colored offices of the Eccles Building it's easy to see a squeezed middle class, cities that are beginning to look more like third-world sh--holes, complete with tent encampments, than the modern, urban paradise the Fed imagines.

Additionally, with individuals and families tapped out and heavily in debt, price pressure is almost nowhere to be found, except at the gas pump and the local, state, and federal tax offices.

The economy is made of mostly smoke and mirrors, built on mountains of debt.

Dow Jones Industrial Average April Scorecard:

Date Close Gain/Loss Cum. G/L
4/2/18 23,644.19 -458.92 -458.92
4/3/18 24,033.36 +389.17 -69.75
4/4/18 24,264.30 +230.94 +161.19
4/5/18 24,505.22 +240.92 +402.11
4/6/18 23,932.76 -572.46 -170.35
4/9/18 23,979.10 +46.34 -134.01
4/10/18 24,407.86 +428.76 +294.66
4/11/18 24,189.45 -218.55 +76.11

At the Close, Wednesday, April 11, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,189.45, -218.55 (-0.90%)
NASDAQ: 7,069.03, -25.27 (-0.36%)
S&P 500: 2,642.19, -14.68 (-0.55%)
NYSE Composite: 12,514.62, -51.35 (-0.41%)

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