Tuesday, August 14, 2018

Stocks Post Gains As Turkey Currency Crisis Moves Off Front Page

Stocks rebounded sharply on Tuesday, ending a series of lower closes which saw the Dow drop four straight sessions.

Gains were made in response to the Turkey story moving off page one and onto the list of disturbing problems in the global economy. For what it's worth, thanks to the widespread use of computer algorithms, 21st century stock markets have become more a kind of knee-jerk referendum on current financial and political news, as opposed to the 20th century model with discounted future earnings.

Thus, measurements such as p/e ratios are shunned in favor of more momentum-style observations and manipulations and old models for valuations are routinely disregarded as old hat. In conjunction with the dominant 24-hour news cycle, trading in robust markets such as are available in the US and other developed countries has become a day-to-day operation for many of the greater brokerages.

No longer content with 10-20% annual returns, the proliferation of options, futures, ETFs and other market-distorting, derivative opportunities offer potential for hedging, pair trades, and a myriad of other exotic strategies, schemes, and systems.

Thus, when a currency fails, such as happened in Venezuela and is currently underway in Turkey, markets are prone to react with immediacy before returning to the status quo.

That's the story with today's gains, though the larger issue remains unresolved. The markets have had their say and now move on to the next big thing. This manner of shoulder-shrugging complacency is what makes markets more and more fragile, as, with each big event that has an initial response but no resolution, the underlying morass of problematic financial issues piles higher and higher.

Since the financial crisis of 2008-09, markets have increasingly operated inside a vacuum, fitted with appropriate blinders to geo-political changes and financial disruptions. It's assumed that central banks, which now control almost all of global finance, can handle any issues that may pop up, either with massive buying, interest rate adjusting, or soothing words from the top-most chiefs.

It's an odd way to make a buck, but that's the norm, for now.

Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:

Date Close Gain/Loss Cum. G/L
8/1/18 25,333.82 -81.37 -81.37
8/2/18 25,326.16 -7.66 -89.03
8/3/18 25,462.58 +136.42 +55.05
8/6/18 25,502.18 +39.60 +94.65
8/7/18 25,628.91 +126.73 +221.38
8/8/18 25,583.75 -45.16 +176.22
8/9/18 25,509.23 -74.52 +101.70
8/10/18 25,313.14 -196.09 -94.39
8/13/18 25,187.70 -125.44 -219.83
8/14/18 25,299.92 +112.22 -107.61

At the Close, Tuesday, August 14, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,299.92, +112.22 (+0.45%)
NASDAQ: 7,870.89, +51.19 (+0.65%)
S&P 500: 2,839.96, +18.03 (+0.64%)
NYSE Composite: 12,835.31, +71.65 (+0.56%)

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