Monday, September 24, 2018

Weekend Wrap: Dow, S&P At Record Levels, Tech Shunned, Fed To Raise Rates

This was a banner week for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, ramping nearly 590 points - the most since late March - and eclipsing the old record high close from January 26 (26,616.71) and leaving it in the dust.

While the Dow and S&P set records, tech stocks didn't fare as well, closing down for the week as investors continued to shed shares of some of the more widely-held US companies, like Facebook (FB), Netflix (NFLX), Alphabet, nee Google (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), and Apple (AAPL).

The biggest losers were Amazon (-55.18, -2.80%) and Apple (-6.18, -2.76%) as traders recorded record volume on the AA's of the so-called FAANGs.

Bond yields spiked, with the 10-year note rising beyond the Maginot line of 3.00%, ending the week with a yield of 3.07%.

Precious metals continued to remain in the doldrums, with gold and silver still hovering just above three-year lows.

The week ahead should provide some volatility as the Fed's FOMC policy meeting convenes Tuesday and Wednesday, with a policy announcement set for Wednesday afternoon which is anticipated to raise the federal funds rate for the seventh consecutive quarter, to 2.00-2.25%.

Playing a dangerous game of chicken with the market, the Fed continues its attempt to pour cold water on the emerging strong economy and the even-stronger US dollar, which has smashed currencies in countries from Turkey to Argentina into financial chaos.

The Fed insists upon rate increases to slow the economy, though it's unclear that the US economy is expanding at anything approaching red-hot status. While second quarter GDP came in higher than expectations, at 4.2 percent annualized, the three prior readings, from the third and fourth quarters of 2017 and the 2018 first quarter were still cool, at 2.8%, 2.3%, and 2.2%, respectively.

GDP in the second quarter was the highest since the third quarter of 2014. More than a few analysts and economists have expressed fears of a second half downturn in GDP growth. Should their forecasts come to fruition it would be seen as a strike against the aggressive Fed rate-hiking and an appeal for them to stop before they crush the nascent American expansion.

After the Fed's policy announcement this week, the third estimate of GDP growth will be revealed on Thursday, September 27.

Dow Jones Industrial Average September Scorecard:

Date Close Gain/Loss Cum. G/L
9/4/18 25,952.48 -12.34 -12.34
9/5/18 25,974.99 +22.51 +10.17
9/6/18 25,995.87 +20.88 +31.05
9/7/18 25,916.54 -79.33 -48.28
9/10/18 25,857.07 -59.47 -107.75
9/11/18 25,971.06 +113.99 +6.24
9/12/18 25,998.92 +27.86 +34.10
9/13/18 26,145.99 +147.07 +181.17
9/14/18 26,154.67 +8.68 +189.85
9/17/18 26,062.12 -92.55 +97.30
9/18/18 26,246.96 +184.84 +282.14
9/19/18 26,405.76 +158.80 +440.94
9/20/18 26,656.98 +251.22 +692.16
9/21/18 26,743.50 +86.52 +778.68

At the Close, Friday, September 21, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 26,743.50, +86.52 (+0.32%)
NASDAQ: 7,986.96, -41.28 (-0.51%)
S&P 500: 2,929.67, -1.08 (-0.04%)
NYSE Composite: 13,236.44, +11.33 (+0.09%)

For the Week:
Dow: +588.83 (+2.25%)
NASDAQ: -23.09 (-0.29%)
S&P 500: +24.69 (+0.85%)
NYSE Composite: +185.92 (+1.42%)

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