Saturday, November 24, 2018

WEEKEND WRAP: Black Friday or Blue Friday? Oil Down 34%, S&P, NASDAQ, NYSE In Correction

The beatings will continue until morale improves.

While the exact origin of the above phrase is clouded, it certainly applies to the current stock trading regimen that has sent world markets spinning downward and US stocks to levels comparable to nearly a year ago.

The sad situation for stocks continued even into the holiday season, when the traditionally upbeat and optimistic Black Friday half-day session turned into a savage selloff that lasted right through to the 1:00 pm ET close.

Following a brief respite on Wednesday that saw the Dow end down less than one point, and the Thanksgiving Day holiday, investors took their cues from overseas markets, which were sold off on Thursday, extending the dour moods in Europe and the Pacific Rim. Friday's trading in foreign markets was mixed, though the outlier was Brazil, where the Bovespa lost 1,247.21 points (-1.43%), confirming the theme of a global, rolling, slow-motion crash in equity values.

According to respected sources (ZeroHedge and ETF Daily News), the Dow suffered its worst Black Friday loss since 2010 and the S&P saw its worst performance for the day after Thanksgiving since the mid-1930s.

While the Dow has not yet caught down to its deepest depths of 2018, it is approaching the 2018 bottom from March 23 (23,533.20), promoting the idea that the worst of this round o selling is not quite over.

Friday's session concluded another in a series of poor performances for stocks, nearly equalling the declines seen in the week of October 8-12, sending all of the major indices below their respective 50, 200, and 40-week moving averages.

While shoppers in the US were out buying electronics, toys, appliances, clothes, and assorted trinkets, Wall Street traders were selling off assets, not an encouraging start to the holiday season. All of the major averages ended the week below where they started 2018. Without a significant Santa Claus rally, 2018 looks to be one of the worst for traders since 2008, when the S&P 500 lost 38.49%. Since then, only twice - in 2011 and 2015 - has the S&P closed lower than the close from the previous year. Currently, the S&P is down less than two percent on the year.

Friday's losses sent there S&P 500 into correction territory, ending down 10.17% from the September 20 all-time high (2930.75). The NASDAQ sank further into correction, and is approaching an outright bear market. The NASDAQ is down 14,44% from its August 29 high (8109.69).

On October 3rd, the Dow Industrials closed at an all-time high of 26,828.39. On Friday, it closed down 9.48% from that level.

The NYSE Composite, which peaked on January 25 at 13,637.02, is down 11.74%, and the Dow Jones Transportation Index is down 10.39 since closing at 11,570.84 on September 14.

Finally, the big loser for the week - which will eventually be a boon to consumers - was oil, which was once again crushed, as WTI crude lost more than seven percent, to $50.42/barrel. On October 3rd, coincidentally the game day the Dow peaked, WTI crude sold for $76.41 per barrel. That's a decline of 34.02% in just over seven weeks. Now, that's a crash.

Dow Jones Industrial Average November Scorecard:

Date Close Gain/Loss Cum. G/L
11/1/18 25,380.74 +264.98 +264.98
11/2/18 25,270.83 -109.91 +155.07
11/5/18 25,461.70 +190.87 +345.94
11/6/18 25,635.01 +173.31 +519.25
11/7/18 26,180.30 +545.29 +1064.54
11/8/18 26,191.22 +10.92 +1075.46
11/9/18 25,989.30 -201.92 +873.54
11/12/18 25,387.18 -602.12 +271.42
11/13/18 25,286.49 -100.69 +170.27
11/14/18 25,080.50 -205.99 -35.72
11/15/18 25,289.27 +208.77 +173.05
11/16/18 25,413.22 +123.95 +297.00
11/19/18 25,017.44 -395.78 -98.78
11/20/18 24,465.64 -551.80 -650.58
11/21/18 24,464.69 -0.95 -651.53
11/23/18 24,285.95 -178.74 -830.27

At the Close, Friday, November 23, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,285.95, -178.74 (-0.73%)
NASDAQ: 6,938.98, -33.27 (-0.48%)
S&P 500: 2,632.56, -17.37 (-0.66%)
NYSE Composite: 12,036.24, -87.10 (-0.72%)

For the Week:
Dow: -1,127.27 (-4.44%)
NASDAQ: -308.89 (-4.26%)
S&P 500: -103.71 (-3.79%)
NYSE Composite: -364.04 (-2.94%)

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