Weekend Wrap: End Of Quarter Fade Troubling at Half-Year Mark

Stocks were flying higher early on Friday, the final trading session of the second quarter, but, late in the day, waves of selling sent all of the major indices well off their highs by the close.

While the selling did not sent the averages into negative ground, sentiment the past two weeks has not been satisfying to investors, neither those with longer term aspirations nor for the speculative excesses in the short and day-trading regime.

The S&P and NASDAQ closed out the quarter with better success than the Dow, though the 30 industrial stocks comprising the Dow Jones Industrial Average continue to lead the market in the US and to a large extent are a barometer for business globally.

Thus, the Dow ended the month of June with a 144-point loss, and the quarter with a squeamish advance of 158.97 (April, +50.81; May +252.59), less than one percent.

At the year's midpoint, the Dow is down just over one percent. The S&P 500 is up better than two percent, while the NASDAQ is sporting a 9% gain, well into bubble territory.

2018 is turning out to be less and less impressive with each passing day. The search for yield is an everyday affair under current conditions, leaving little room for error. Investors are finding out rather suddenly that small mistakes are becoming more frequent, leading to steeper general losses. The trading environment is not for the faint of heart; cash is becoming more attractive, especially with the dollar resilient against many major foreign currencies.

Bloomberg’s Michael Regan noted Friday that global market caps have lost about $10 trillion since peaking in late January.

Bonds continue to fluctuate in narrow ranges, though consistently flattening the yield curve, with both short and long durations taking turns at lower yields. The 30-year bond ended the quarter at 2.98%, the 10-year note held at 2.85%, the five, 2.73%, and the 2-year, 2.52%.

Oil spiked in the final days of the month, just in time for the largest holiday travel week of summer.

The vix remains elevated with precious metals largely in the dumps. The most significant development for the upcoming, holiday-shortened week is Friday's non-farm payroll report for June. The expected number is +198,000 net new jobs for the month. It may be academic if the report comes close to consensus. A miss would surely be met with a negative reaction

With six months in the books, the second half kicks off on a very nervous note.

Dow Jones Industrial Average June Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
6/1/18	24,635.21	+219.37	+219.37
6/4/18	24,813.69	+178.48	+397.85
6/5/18	24,799.98	-13.71	+384.14
6/6/18	25,146.39	+346.41	+730.55
6/7/18	25,241.41	+95.02	+825.57
6/8/18	25,316.53	+75.12	+900.69
6/11/18	25,322.31	+5.78	+906.47
6/12/18	25,320.73	-1.58	+904.89
6/13/18	25,201.20	-119.53	+785.36
6/14/18	25,175.31	-25.89	+759.47
6/15/18	25,090.48	-84.83	+674.64
6/18/18	24,987.47	-103.01	+571.63
6/19/18	24,700.21	-287.26	+284.37
6/20/18	24,657.80	-42.41	+241.96
6/21/18	24,461.70	-196.10	+45.86
6/22/18	24,580.89	+119.19	+165.05
6/25/18	24,252.80	-328.09	-163.04
6/26/18	24,283.11	+30.31	-132.73
6/27/18	24,117.59	-165.52	-298.25
6/28/18	24,216.05	+98.46	-199.79
6/29/18	24,271.41	+55.36	-144.43

At the Close, Friday, June 29, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,271.41, +55.36 (+0.23%)
NASDAQ: 7,510.30, +6.62 (+0.09%)
S&P 500: 2,718.37, +2.06 (+0.08%)
NYSE Composite: 12,504.25, +28.27 (+0.23%)

For the Week:
Dow: -309.48 (-1.26%)
NASDAQ: -182.51 (-2.37%)
S&P 500: -36.51 (-1.33%)
NYSE Composite: -135.32 (-1.07%)

Weekend Wrap: May Ends Dull, Jobs Data Sends Stocks Higher 1st of June

The see-sawing of the markets continued for another week ending in bifurcated manner, with the Dow and NYSE Composite suffering losses while the S&P and NASDAQ posted gains.

In particular, the Dow has seen 12 weeks with positive results, versus 10 weeks of losses, resulting in a relatively flat index, down a mere 84.01 points since the 2017 year-end close (December 29) of 24.719.22, the gains all made in January, when the Dow topped out at 26,616.71 on January 26. The losses were mostly confined to the correction in February and another poor showing in March. April and May both were positive for the Dow, though those small gains still leave the index nearly 2000 points below the all-time high.

Two stocks - Boeing (BA) and Apple (AAPL) have kept the Dow from sliding back into correction territory. Since April 30, Apple gained 15%, Boing added 23 points, or about seven percent, though both stocks have basically flatlined since mid-month.

On the holiday-shortened week, the Dow recorded losses on Tuesday and Thursday (May 31), and gains on Wednesday and Friday (June 1), the latter upswing largely attributable to the better-than-expected June non-farm payroll release, getting the new month off to a flying start.

As has been evident since the February and March selloffs, this has become a trader's market, with individual stocks and sectors favored over pure index plays. All of the major averages have gravitated around their respective 50 and 200-day moving averages, the divergences seldom taking any of them far above or below those critical lines of support and/or resistance.

With summer coming on fast, volume continues to wither away, with select stocks getting the bulk of the trading action. Bullish deniers of the Dow Theory change from April will be hard-pressed to make much of a case for buying stocks during the hot weather, as the Dow's all-time high fades farther and farther away.

Dow Jones Industrial Average June Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
6/1/18	24,635.21	+219.37	+219.37

At the Close, Friday, June 1, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,635.21, +219.37 (+0.90%)
NASDAQ: 7,554.33, +112.21 (+1.51%)
S&P 500: 2,734.62, +29.35 (+1.08%)
NYSE Composite: 12,620.83, +93.69 (+0.75%)

For the Week:
Dow: -117.48 (-0.48%)
NASDAQ: +120.48 (+1.62%)
S&P 500: +13.29 (+0.49%)
NYSE Composite: -14.12 (-0.11%)

To Start June, Stocks Soar Without Reason; Dow, NASDAQ Set New Marks; NFP Disappoints

Just because...

At The Close, 5/1/17:
Dow: 21,144.18, +135.53 (0.65%)
NASDAQ: 6,246.83, +48.31 (0.78%)
S&P 500: 2,430.06, +18.26 (0.76%)
NYSE Composite: 11,699.79, +101.76 (0.88%)

Updating, at approximately 9:00 am ET:

May Non-farm Payroll data disappointed, coming in well below expectations of 185,000 net new jobs, at 138,000.

April was revised lower, to 174,000. The May figure is the second-lowest since November 2016, and is the sixth month of the last eight that job creation was less than 200,000, dating back to October, 2016.

Is this showing the real nature of the US economy? That job creation is still stagnant or slowing, with the economy remaining in favor of large corporations with significant barriers to entry by smaller firms.

This is the turret of the US economy. The myriad of regulations and laws, engineered and gamed by lobbyists for major firms, favor big business at the detriment to small business and entrepreneurism. The rules, regulations, licenses, and filing requirements for business favors larger firms because they - due to their vast monetary advantages - can pay the onerous fees, lawyers, accountants and compliance costs without much of a dent to their bottom line.

Smaller firms lack the financial resources to deal with the myriad of federal, state and local laws, finding themselves at such a disadvantage that many people considering starting up their own business, do not, once they research the complications of tax laws and other regulations. Thus, the number of self-employed people in the USA is lower today than it was in 1990.

That figure is depressing because there are 72 million more Americans now than there were in 1990. Worse yet, according to Michael Snyder's Economic Collapse blog:

...the percentage of “new entrepreneurs and business owners” declined by a staggering 53 percent between 1977 and 2010.

So, while Wall Street funds the well-heeled huge corporations, Main Street and small town America is still stuck in the depression that began in 2007 (some say 2000) and has not ended, despite the "recovery" meme from the past eight years.

If working for some gigantic global corporation at slave wages and having 40% of your paycheck stolen from you in the form of taxes and contributions is any American's idea of freedom, growth, or prosperity, one wonders what a recession or depression really looks like.

Americans could have and should have destroyed the corporate-government partnership back in the sixties, but, after the youth revolution was crushed by the military-industrial complex, the Baby Boomer generation blindly went along their merry way, co-opted into the system. Now they are all retiring, wondering if the $500,000 or $1 million they've squirreled away over the years will last them the rest of their lives.

Meanwhile, the country they were born into and suckled upon no longer resembles the one of their youth. They will leave to future generations a small shadow of a once-great nation, Donald Trump or no Donald Trump. Sadly, to this point, the evidence points to the president favoring big business over small. Perhaps that is just perception, or maybe it's too soon to judge him on the small business front, because, after all, he was - long ago - a small business - and has dealt with many small business owners in the past.

There may yet be hope for small business in America, but the rules favoring big business are choking it down.

Stocks Finish Red As Global Economic Data Exhibits Slowdown

News out of Japan, Europe and the US put a negative spin on markets to open the week.

After the Dow closed exactly at 17,500 on Friday, there was fear that a further decline below the level - which had held for more than two months (March 17 was the last time the Dow closed under 17,500) - might trigger a more precipitous decline.

However, with bad news all around, traders figured that the Fed would have enough sense to pause on a rate hike at their June meeting.

Japan experienced deep declines in both imports and exports to major trading partners such as the USA and China. It was the seventh consecutive monthly decline in exports from Japan.

Europe's Manufacturing PMI was below estimates; the US had similar results, with the lowest Markit Manufacturing PMI (50.5) since the financial crisis in 2009.

Stock traders put on a stern face, keeping the major averages in the green most of the day, but stocks slumped in he final hour of trading, with all three majors losing ground.

Now, it appears that not only is the Federal reserve intent on raising rates sooner rather than later, but it is also becoming crystal clear that the general global economy is ailing as well and may be approaching recessionary levels.

This is not exactly how the masters of the universe wanted to start the week, though they have nobody except themselves to blame for whatever erosion of the global economy and their precious stock certificates occurs in coming months.

Stormy Monday:
S&P 500: 2,048.04, -4.28 (0.21%)
Dow: 17,492.93, -8.01 (0.05%)
NASDAQ: 4,765.78, -3.78 (0.08%)

Crude Oil 48.12 -0.60% Gold 1,249.50 -0.27% EUR/USD 1.1222 +0.03% 10-Yr Bond 1.84 -0.59% Corn 397.75 +0.82% Copper 2.06 +0.02% Silver 16.41 -0.77% Natural Gas 2.06 +0.05% Russell 2000 1,111.37 -0.08% VIX 15.82 +4.08% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4484 -0.16% USD/JPY 109.2430 -0.81%