Showing posts with label MSFT. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MSFT. Show all posts

Monday, December 10, 2018

Seas of Red Ink; Global Collapse In Asset Pricing Underway; US Markets In Denial

Was Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), or Microsoft (MSFT) ever worth a trillion dollars?

All were, for a while, supposedly worth that high until the market considered the madness of such lofty valuations. Then, they were probably not.

A little quickie math is appropriate. For a company to be worth a trillion dollars, in rough terms, it would have to make a profit of $143 off every person on the planet (we're using 7 billion as an estimate) in a calendar year. Figuring a 15-year capitalization period, it's possible.

However, with the global median individual annual income at about $3000, it's unlikely. And for three companies to be worth that would mean every person on the planet, including babies and the elderly in nursing homes or hospices, would have to spend enough so that combined, Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft would net a profit of $429. So, for three companies to have that kind of valuation simultaneously is something right out of science fiction, because these people would have to spend about $2000 (figuring a rough profit margin of 20%) on products from just those three companies. Were this to happen, a third of the planet would die off because they spent most of their money on smartphones, software and trinkets from Amazon (with much lower profit margins, BYW), instead of food.

And what about all the other companies on the planet? From the corner store to multi-national corporations like General Motors, Nestle, Samsung, etc.? How much money do they extract from every person in the world with these three biggies crowding out everybody else? It simply doesn't add up.

That's why asset prices are collapsing. Companies, or rather, the stock prices representing shares of these companies are not worth what they're selling for, the big money knows it, and they're selling their shares to people less informed or desperate to make their investments pay off in the global rat race.

Let's face facts. US Stocks have more than tripled in value over the past 10 years. That doesn't make any sense. Were Americans suddenly three times as wealthy as they were 10 years ago? No. No. And Hell No.

Today, as stock prices tumbled around the world, US markets barely suffered a scraped knee and a paper cut. The NIKKEI was down 459 points, or, 2.12%. Japan's economy shrank by 2.5% in the third quarter.

Stock markets in Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, India, China, Indonesia, South Korea, Germany, France, England, Belgium, Italy, Greece, Spain, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, and Canada were all down between one and two-and-a-half percent, again, after weeks of declines. Many of these indices are in correction. Germany, South Korea, China, Japan, and others are in bear markets, down more than 20%. That's just a sampling. But the US carries on, though the Dow is less than 325 points away from correction territory. All the other US indices are in correction, down more than 10%.

Dow Industrials were down more than 500 points in the morning, but finished, magically (same as last Thursday) well off the lows, in fact, with a small gain. Magic! Denial! HFT Algorithms! Programmed Trading! Central Bank Intervention! It's only temporary.

US stocks have performed better than the rest of the world, so far, but they are trending in the same direction - lower. Brokers and dealers on Wall Street are living in a La-la Land that would put Hollywood to shame. Many in the financial sphere are in deep denial. They don't believe the US economy can contract, that stocks can be re-priced lower, down 20, 30 or 40 percent or more. It has happened in the past, many times, and it will happen again. It is happening right now.

But, but, but, we can't have a stock market crash during the Christmas season, can we? Maybe stocks will not exactly crash this month, but the performance has been - on a day-to-day basis - underwhelming. Winter is coming (Dec. 20).

According to Dow Theory, the Dow Jones Transportation Index confirmed the primary trend change - from bullish to bearish - that the Dow Jones Industrial Average signaled on November 23. That's the second time this year Dow Theory confirmed a primary trend change. The last was through March (Industrials signaled) and April (Transports confirmed), but stocks bounced back quickly through the spring and summer. By autumn, the bloom was off the rose, however, and the false rally began to unwind, and it continues to unwind.

And, with that, today's musical selection, "Turn, Turn, Turn," released October 1, 1965, written by Pete Seeger, performed by the Byrds.



Dow Jones Industrial Average December Scorecard:

Date Close Gain/Loss Cum. G/L
12/3/18 25,826.43 +287.97 +287.97
12/4/18 25,027.07 -799.36 -511.39
12/6/18 24,947.67 -79.40 -590.79
12/7/18 24,388.95 -558.72 -1149.51
12/10/18 24,423.26 +34.31 -1115.20

At the Close, Monday, December 10, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,423.26, +34.31 (+0.14%)
NASDAQ: 7,020.52, +51.27 (+0.74%)
S&P 500: 2,637.72, +4.64 (+0.18%)
NYSE Composite: 11,889.29, -52.64 (-0.44%)

Monday, June 12, 2017

What Happened Friday? A Shaky Trend Is Developing

Strangely enough, the skyrocketing NASDAQ took a serve turn for the worse on Friday, dropping a massive 113 points at the same time the Dow was setting a new record with an 89-point gain and the NYSE Composite tacked on 65 points.

What drove the NASDAQ to its knees on Friday were the stocks known as FAANGs - Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google - taking hits to their massively-overvalued share prices.

Here's the ugly reality
Facebook (FB) -5.11 (-3.30%); Apple (AAPL) -6.01 (-3.88%); Amazon (AMZN) -31.96 (-3.16%); Netflix (NFLX) -7.85 (-4.73%); Alphabet (parent of Google) (GOOG) -33.58 (-3.41%).

One-day, three-to-five-percent declines in any equity is usually a big deal. Having all of these institutionally-widely held stocks take a nosedive like that on a single day is a large, red, flashing warning sign that something is fundamentally wrong with the market, the economy, maybe even the world.

These shares weren't dumped all at once because somebody was taking profits. Volume was three times normal. Everybody was booking gains, and probably with good reason. The price/earning ratios for these tech darlings are unsustainable. Netflix leads the way with a P/E of 204, followed by Amazon, at 184, according to Yahoo Finance. Google seems modest by comparison, at 32. Facebook is 38, and Apple looks downright cheap with a P/E around 17.

So, only two of these stocks are wickedly overpriced, using standard metrics, but they all suffer some similar characteristics: They are all tech companies, based on the West coast, run by billionaire founders (excepting Apple, though Tim Cook was surely an heir apparent to Steve Jobs). The only other company that comes to mind with these characteristics is Microsoft (MSFT). The company founded by Bill Gates took a pretty good hit on Friday, down 1.63 (-2.27%).

Does this suggest that the "big one" is about to shake out the left coast, battering California from LA to San Jose with aftershocks up the coast to Seattle? And just how would anybody know that? OK, that theory falls into the category of tin-foil hat conspiracy theory, but, if Cali shakes, rattles and rolls someday soon, Money Daily will take credit for calling it (that's a joke, son).

Outside of Friday's tumult, general economic data has not been encouraging. First quarter GDP was 1.2% (second estimate), which is pretty close to stall speed. The US - and largely the global - economy has been anything but robust since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008-09. Captains of finance at places like the World Bank, the Fed, ECB, and elsewhere have been touting "recovery" for eight years, wherein none, in fact, has occurred, unless one peers only at stock charts all day. While stocks have soared on easy money accommodation, he same cannot be said of Main Street's outlook. Retail stores are closing everywhere in America, small business has already been dumped into the trash bin of history, and new company creation has hit a 27-year low. Additionally, the Fed is hell-bent on raising rates for the second time this year when the FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week.

What's troubling about the fall of the FAANGs is that these companies have largely benefitted off the backs of consumers, monopolizing markets and cannibalizing profits to the C-suite executives. Now, the largest shareholders - pension, mutual, and hedge funds - may be taking their money elsewhere, either to cash, bonds, or, maybe just to more stolid, established, dividend-paying stocks. It's tough to know, groupthink among the elites being difficult to gauge or define.

Whatever the case, with the smallish losses on the Dow and S&P earlier in the week followed by a fallout in the most speculative stocks establishes a trend, which, for now, we can only identify as "shaky."

With most stocks and indices hovering near all-time highs, shaky is not a word one would normally associate with risk-taking. The time to run is when the avalanche is first seen at the top of the mountain, not when it barrels into the lodge.

At the Close, 6/9/17:
Dow: 21,271.97, +89.44 (0.42%)
NASDAQ 6,207.92, -113.85 (-1.80%)
S&P 500 2,431.77, -2.02 (-0.08%)
NYSE Composite: 11,744.73, +65.78 (0.56%)

For the Week:
Dow: +65.68 (0.31%)
NASDAQ: -97.88 (-1.55%)
S&P 500: -7.30 (-0.30%)
NYSE Composite: +26.03 (0.22%)

Friday, January 15, 2016

Stocks Slammed Globally, S&P Under 1900; Dow Drops Below 16,000

Wall Street is, at last, getting the just desserts from seven years of Fed policies that have funneled trillions of dollars into the hands of the wealthiest people in the country.

The kicker is that the American public, the 65-70% that still works for a living, are going to get the worst of it.

Today's carnage in US equity markets was not an isolated event by any means. It began years ago, but, in its most current manifestation, the collapse began in China last night, when the SSE fell nearly 5% in its last session of the week.

The contagious selling fever spilled over into European markets, with the DAX, CAC-40, and FTSE-100 ending the day down by 2.54%, 2.38% and 1.93%, respectively.

Prior to markets opening in the US, however, there was a spate of poor economic data released.

Retail sales for December came in at -0.1. PPI went negative (deflation) in December, at -0.2%. Empire Manufacturing (a gauge for economic activity in the NY Fed district, collapsed from a reading of -6.2 in December, to a ghastly -19.4 in January.

Industrial Production fell 0.4%. Capacity Utilization slumped to 76.5%.

Then came the news from Wal-Mart that they would be closing 269 stores this year, with 154 of them in the United States. The full list of Wal-Mart store closings can be seen here.

By the time markets actually opened at 9:30 am ET, futures were showing the Dow down by more than 350 points and the indices all fell off a cliff at the sound of the opening bell.

By midday, the Dow was down more than 500 points, the NASDAQ had shed close to 150, and the S&P was sporting losses of more than 50 points.

While today's crashing stock indices were certainly bloody, they weren't even close to the 10 worst one-day Dow declines of all time, so all is not lost.

As the session wore on, the signs of a failing economy - both here in the US and globally - were everywhere. The 10-year note fell briefly below 2.00%. With 1/2 hour left to go, declining issues were leading advancers roughly 6:1. Intel (INTC) was down nine percent. Citigroup (C) was posting a 6% loss; Microsoft (MSFT) was clinging to a four percent downside. Bank of America (BAC), which was pushing 17 two weeks ago, sliced through 15 and was trading in the range of 14.40, down 4.0% on the day.

With more companies reporting Q4 and annual earnings next week, the action this week and today might just be an appetizer for what's about to come, and that might be a recession, collapsing corporate earnings, liquidations, bankruptcies and the wholesale destruction of pension funds - heavily invested in equities - nationwide.

For its part, the Fed trotted out William Dudley, president of the NY Fed and vice chairman of the FOMc, who noted that negative rates could be considered in light of the recent market volatility. His tongue-lapping of the markets didn't seem to carry much weight. Investors were only interested in getting out and limiting the damage prior to the long weekend.

The day's closing prices:
S&P 500: 1,880.28, -41.56 (2.16%)
Dow: 15,988.08, -390.97 (2.39%)
NASDAQ: 4,488.42, -126.59 (2.74%)


Crude Oil 29.67 -4.90% Gold 1,088.90 +1.43% EUR/USD 1.0920 +0.53% 10-Yr Bond 2.03 -3.10% Corn 362.50 +1.26% Copper 1.95 -1.57% Silver 13.90 +1.14% Natural Gas 2.10 -1.73% Russell 2000 1,005.44 -1.97% VIX 27.70 +15.66% BATS 1000 20,066.91 -1.99% GBP/USD 1.4255 -1.13% USD/JPY 117.0050 -0.97%

For the week:
S&P: -41.76 (-2.17)
Dow: -358.71 (-2.19)
NASDAQ: -155.21 (-3.34)

Friday, August 30, 2013

Stocks End Worst Month Since May 2012; Odds on Syria Strike; Despite Kerry Rhetoric, Still no Proof

We end the month of August on an oddly-down note, since Secretary of State John Kerry made an impassioned speech about the need to punish the Assad regime in Syria for alleged chemical strikes against its own people, but still did not offer any substantive proof that those loyal to the embattled president of Syria were responsible for the attacks.

Odd, it was, that stocks did not rally in patriotic fervor over going to war, insofar as any action the president may take against Syria is entirely without authorization from congress and decidedly unconstitutional. But, in the politics of the new American dictatorship under president Obama, such trifles as the War Powers Act and the constitution - to say nothing of the American public's 91% disapproval of any action being taken against Syria - count for nil when the stakes are so politically high.

Thus, we present the odds for the timing of missile strikes - "tailored" ones, using the president's own vernacular:
Friday (prior to 12:00 pm EDT): 7-5
Saturday: even
Sunday: 4-1
Monday: 7-1
No strike: 40-1

Stocks ended the most brutal month since May of 2012, spurred to the downside first, by talk of tapering by the Fed and general fear, second, by talk of military action from the Obama administration. The time for talk being essentially over, it is expected that Damascus will be in flames shortly, the Fed will nip about $10-15 billion off its monthly bond-buying binge by the end of September and stocks will continue their trajectory to the downside.

On the day, the Russell 2000 and Dow Transports were mashed fairly substantially, and, despite some fierce tape-painting in the final five minutes of trading (about 40 Dow points), stocks finished the week with their third loss in the past five sessions.

For the week - in which the Dow closed lower for the fourth straight week (first time this year) - the Dow Industrials were down 200.20 points, the NASDAQ shed 67.92 and the S&P 500 was nipped for 30.53 points, a pretty severe decline.

Microsoft (MSFT) was the only Dow component to finish positive for the month.

Now we await the weekend's entertainment: College Football and Bombing Syria.

What could be better?

Dow 14,810.31, -30.64 (0.21%)
NASDAQ 3,589.87, -30.43 (0.84%)
S&P 500 1,632.97, -5.20 (0.32%)
NYSE Composite 9,270.70, -45.12 (0.48%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,229,340,500
NYSE Volume 3,001,316,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1822-4668
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 55-73
WTI crude oil: 107.65, -1.15
Gold: 1,396.10, -16.80
Silver: 23.46, -0.627

Friday, October 19, 2012

Reality Catching Up to Wall Street on Earnings Misses, Fears

Around June, this author told a particularly self-absorbed, furtive individual that there would be a market "event" shortly before the presidential election, designed to offer the impression that the economy, under president Obama, was failing in multitudinous ways, designed to usher in Mitt Romney as the next occupant of the White House.

Until today, that prediction seemed somewhat unreasonable, as stocks have risen sharply during the summer months, but, as third quarter earnings - in addition to various warnings from the likes of the IMF and World Bank - are proving, the US and global economies are far from what anyone would consider healthy.

Today's sharp sell-off was the product of many misses and warnings by huge multi-national companies that either missed earnings and/or revenue estimates or issued warnings for the months ahead.

Among those companies that fell short of Wall Street's lowered estimates after Thursday's close and prior to Friday's open were McDonald's (MCD), Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG), high-flying Chipolte Mexican Grill (CMG), and General Electric (GE). The misses came behind similar poor showings from Intel (hit a 52-week low today) and IBM, earlier in the week and proved quite a few sell-side analysts correct in predicting that this quarter would be very rough from an earnings perspective.

Truth be told, even those companies beating earnings estimates are not beating by much, with some exceptions, and are generally hitting targets that are lower than the previous years numbers, which, as the market is a continuous-discounting mechanism, means stocks are going in reverse, with earnings falling, not growing.

That alone should explain today's deep, across-the-board, declines, but also brings into question the entire philosophy behind central bank easing and money printing on a global scale. Sure enough, easy money has propped up banks and companies and a multitude of stocks and indices, but the end result of funny fiat money always reverts to a point at which currencies become worthless and derivative instruments, such as stocks, and, further out, bonds, lose value and we could be nearing the conclusion of the failed stimulative experiment that's fixed nothing since the crash of 2008.

Speaking of crashes, today's drop pales by comparison to what occurred 25 years ago to the day, the well-known stock market crash of 1987, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 23%. It was a seminal market event that will probably (hopefully) never be repeated, as there are supposedly more safeguards and triggers - to say nothing of the PPT - to prevent such a disastrous one-day event.

That is not to say that markets, stocks and indices cannot fall hard over periods of time, though it is far too soon to call today's action the beginning of such a a downward spiral. However, with tech stocks and industrials feeling the heat from investors in an earnings season that has been short on enthusiasm and long on fear, the coming weeks, especially with the November elections as a backdrop, could produce some calamities such as have already been seen in individual stocks, many of which were grossly overvalued and highly speculative, Chipolte and Apple come immediately to mind.

Checking the charts, it's useful to point out that the Dow and S&P broke through their 50-day moving averages and closed just about right on them, a position last seen a week ago, before Monday and Tuesday's "savior" rallies pushed equities back to something of a triple top, which has now broken down in a dramatic reversal. Today's declines on the two indices were the worst since mid-June. Shortly thereafter, both indices progressed above their 50-day MA, but have now returned to the roost, setting up a very unsettling weekend and a potential breakdown on Monday or further on during the week.

As for the NASDAQ, today's worst percentage loser, that index has been screaming red for a month, having busted through its 50-day MA eight sessions ago. Any further deterioration in the beloved NAZ could trigger a serious correction, as it is already down 7% in the past month.

Looking ahead to next week, earnings reports are due out on some big names, such as Cattepillar (CAT), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Yahoo (YHOO) and Texas Instruments (TXN) on Monday; 3M (MMM), Coach (COH), Facebook (FB) and United Parcel Service (UPS) on Tuesday; and, on Wednesday, Boeing (BA), Eli Lilly (LLY), General Dynamics (GD), Lockheed Martin (LMT) and O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY).

Those mentioned above are but a smattering of companies reporting, in what will be the busiest week of earnings season. CNBC and Bloomberg will be looking for rays of hope, while investors may have a more wary eye toward more companies missing on earnings and revenue.

One economic data point worth noting was existing home sales for September, falling 1.7% to an annual run rate of 4.75 million, well below most estimates.

Until then, the long weekend waiting game, and, on Monday night, the final presidential debate, followed on Wednesday another FOMC rate policy decision, which will probably be nothing more than a formality.

Naturally, there will be the usual can-kicking and posturing from Europe, which still cannot come up with plans for either Greece or Spain, which may or may not be part of the plan to hold off the bad news until after our elections. One can hardly wait.

That is all... for now.

Dow 13,343.51, -205.43 (1.52%)
NASDAQ 3,005.62, -67.25 (2.19%)
S&P 500 1,433.19, -24.15 (1.66%)
NYSE Composite 8,324.14, -118.68 (1.41%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,194,602,500.00
NYSE Volume 3,851,036,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1168-4339
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 166-117
WTI crude oil: 90.05, -2.05
Gold: 1,724.00, -20.70
Silver: 32.10, -0.771

Friday, October 23, 2009

Economy Worries Overshadow Tech Titans

Stocks slid badly on Friday, marring an otherwise upbeat earnings week by ending marginally lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which crashed through the 10,000 mark on Monday, and closed at the high point for 2008, wavered back and forth all week, finally capitulating on Friday, finishing 24 points in the red for the week. Other averages reacted in similar manner, with the NASDAQ losing just more than two points and the S&P 500 dropping 8 points. The NYSE Composite, the broadest measure, was down by 68 points for the 5 days.

Investor skepticism over the health of the economy dimmed the outstanding results from Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT), both of which blew away analyst estimates when reporting 3rd quarter results. Amazon was by far the biggest winner, gaining 25 points, to 118.49, an historic high for the stock, and a one-day gain of nearly 27% for the world's largest internet retailer. Volume on the stock was 9 times the average daily.

Unfortunately, market participants were taking hard-fought gains in other companies amid speculation that the recovery may not be as robust as previously assumed. Underscoring the market sentiment was the massive downside slide on the Dow Jones Transportation Index (^DJT), which slid 137.73 points, a decline of 3.5%.

The major issue upon which many are dwelling is still unemployment, or the lack of new job creation, and the government's abject refusal to offer programs which would stimulate job creation. The halls of congress and the White House have been focused on a partisan health care debate, no doubt a matter of great importance, but paling by comparison to the general welfare of the American people and their need for steady, solid employment.

Talk of a "jobless recovery" has begun to circulate, though even the most ardent proponents of fiscal stimulus have to admit that a recovery without new jobs is really not a recovery at all. There is also growing impatience with the federal government on their handling of the financial crisis and various "socialist" policies, not the least of which is capping executive pay via proclamation from their "pay czar" Kenneth R. Feinberg, who this week proposed 50-90% pay cuts for executives whose companies received TARP funds and have yet to repay.

If there has been one culprit responsible for any slowness in the nascent recovery, the finger can be pointed directly at he White House and congress, whose plodding pace and partisan bickering have been a detriment, rather than a benefit, to the public welfare. With the huge federal government out of the way, the American people and American businesspeople could surely forge a new way forward, but threats of pay cuts and excessive taxation are killing the attitude of everyone from Main Street to Wall Street and from Skid Row to Beverly Hills.

Then again, stocks have been rocketing skyward for some time now, and the market seems to have run considerably out of steam. even though roughly half the companies in the S&P 500 have already reported, the indices haven't budged out of a range from 9950 to 10,100 for more than a week.

Dow 9,972.18, -109.13 (1.08%)
NASDAQ 2,154.47, -10.82 (0.50%)
S&P 500 1,079.60, -13.31 (1.22%)
NYSE Composite 7,066.80, -116.11 (1.62%)


Simple indicators offer a snapshot of the depth and breadth of Friday's decline. Losers hammered winners, 4881-1566, a better than 3-1 ratio, the worst in some time. New highs were 356, to just 54 new lows. Volume was roughly in line with the pace set Tuesday through Thursday.

NYSE Volume 5,506,861,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,476,571,750


Commodity prices continued to retreat from mid-week highs. Oil slipped 69 cents, to $80.50. Gold was off $2.20, to $1,056.40, but silver bucked the trend, gaining 18 cents, to $17.72.

More companies report next week in what will be the busiest week for earnings reports. It's also a busy week for economic reports, highlighted by Thursday's preliminary release of 3rd quarter GDP, which will be a market mover.

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Tech Drives Stocks Higher

While Tuesday's rally may have been all about perception over reality, Wednesday's massive move had everything to do with tech stocks.

Led by volume leaders Microsoft (MSFT), Cisco (CSCO) and Applied Materials (AMAT), the NASDAQ outperformed the other indices by a wide margin. The NASDAQ was up 2.32% at the close, followed by the Dow (+1.45%) and the S&P (+1.36). The broad-based NYSE Composite gained 1.21%.

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Stocks across the board were aided by consumer spending figures for January which were up 0.3% after losing ground in December, and while the gain is a plus, it's significance is minimal in the overall economic picture.

So too the current rally, which has put this week in stark contrast to the dismal performance of the prior one. Stocks bumped up against formidable resistance in the Dow 12,550 area and backed off going into the close.

Dow 12,552.24 +178.83; NASDAQ 2,373.93 +53.89; S&P 500 1,367.21 +18.35; NYSE Composite 9,073.48 +108.13

All of this sets up an interesting couple of days to close out the week. On Thursday, the only important economic news will be new unemployment claims, which will be released at 8:30 am. Friday, investors will be mulling over capacity utilization figures, net imports and exports, the NY Empire State Index and the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment reading.

Thursday could go either way, though breaking through the congestion and resistance could prove difficult. If stocks manage gains, the next level to overcome is in the 12,740 range, at the closing high of Feb 1st.

Advancing issues pounded decliners, 4419-1926, though new lows persisted in their long-standing (back to Oct. 31, 2007) advantage over new highs, 176-85. Expect that gap to decline if stocks stage another strong effort.

Oil gained 49 cents to $93.27 per barrel. Gold and silver were down and up marginally, respectively.

NYSE Volume 3,728,637,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,246,132,000

Friday, July 20, 2007

Google, Caterpillar Sink Dow

After the close on Thursday, Google - for the second time in its brief 2-year existence as a public company - missed analyst expectations and sold off wildly in after-hours trading. On the open, Google (GOOG) was down 36 1/2 points, at 511.90, from the previous day's close. The stock regained some of the loss during the trading day, closing at 520.12, for a loss of 28.47.

With Google still fresh in the rear-view mirror, Caterpillar released second quarter results prior to the open, sinking the general market. The company earned $823 million, or $1.24 per share, in the three months ended June 30, down from $1.05 billion, or $1.52 per share during the same period last year. Analysts had expected a profit of $1.49 a share on revenue of $11.12 billion. The miss was staggering and shares traded lower by 3.78, closing at 83.20.

Dow 13,851.08 -149.33; NASDAQ 2,687.60 -32.44; S&P 500 1,534.10 -18.98; NYSE Composite 10,072.93 -121.08

Damage was widespread, as declining issues outpaced advancers by a 7-2 margin. New lows retook the edge over new highs for the second time in the last three sessions, 368-228.

Other issues reporting on the day were:

  • Citigroup Inc. (C): Net income rose to $6.23 billion, or $1.24 per share, in the second quarter, from $5.27 billion, or $1.05 a share, in the same period a year earlier. Analysts had sought 1.13 per share, but, shares of the nation's largest bank still were down 40 cents on the day, closing at 50.73

  • Schlumberger (SLB): Amid the dour tones of the day, the oil services company posted net income for April-June of $1.26 billion, or $1.02 per share, compared with $856.9 million, or 69 cents per share, in the year-earlier period. Revenue rose to $5.64 billion from $4.69 billion a year earlier. Analysts had expected earnings per share of 95 cents on revenue of $5.53 billion. Shares rose 3.23 to 96.68.

  • Wachovia Corporation (WB): Net earnings increased 21.1% to $2.3 billion, or $1.22 per share, from $1.9 billion, or $1.17 per share in the year-earlier period. Those results were in line with analyst expectations of 1.22 per share. The stock, however, sold off sharply, finishing the session down 1.63, at 49.98


Microsoft (MSFT) was also in line with estimates, but was punished after a series of upside surprises. Shares of the software maker declined 0.35 to 31.16 on volume that was nearly double the average.

Oil dropped 35 cents to settle at $75.57. Gold rose another $6.60 to end at $684.70, while sister silver added 3 cents to $13.40. Friday was the culmination of the best week for the metals in at least 3 months.

Monday will witness more earnings reports with a number of heavyweights, including American Express (AXP), Halliburton (HAL), Merck (MRK), Schering-Plough (SGP) and Texas Instruments (TXN).

Results thus far have been less-than-inspiring, with a fair share of misses and few clear winners. The week will be important as the majority of US companies will have reported by Friday.

Economic indicators will also be in focus, with existing home sales at 10:00 a.m. on Wednesday, new home sales on Thursday and a preliminary reading on GDP for the 2nd quarter out prior to the market open on Friday. Analysts are expecting GDP to show a 3.2% gain. This, on the heels of first quarter's dismal 0.7% showing, may be a bit optimistic. Anything below 2.5% may signal further weakness and precipitous losses in stocks.