Banks Profit From Coronavirus; Governments Equivocate; Fed Keeping Stocks Afloat

Since there is too much information being thrown around on the coronavirus crisis, here are some of the top headlines:

Stocks rallied again after another 4.4 million people filed for unemployment relief, but the gains were wiped out when the World Health Organization (WHO) leaked a report that suggested trials on Gilead Science's (GILD) treatment drug, remdesivir, were not going well. Gilead finished down 4.2%, and the entire US stock market complex finished the day essentially unchanged.

Thursday, as the House pushed through $484 billion in round two of the bailout loan program for small businesses, Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase and other big banks raked in $10 billion in fees for processing the first round of small business PPP loans. As they usually do, the federal government made sure to take care of their major campaign donors. One burning question: since Ruth Cris is returning the $10 million loan they received, is JP Morgan Chase returning the $100,000 fee they "earned" for processing the loan?

Then there's this video that shows Fox News reporter John Roberts and New York Times photographer Doug Mills in the White House coronavirus press briefing room this past Tuesday caught on a hot mic. The two discuss the fatality rate of the virus, with Roberts saying it's between 0.1 and 0.3 percent, and Mills responding that it's in line with the ordinary flu. Some news outlets are characterizing the video as misleading, suggesting the two are joking. Judge for yourself.

According to a study by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) which highlighted Thursday's White House press briefing, warm weather, sunlight, and low humidity could have mitigating effects on coronavirus. This theory has been bandied about since the early days of the pandemic, and there's been no substantial evidence to claim that normal summer weather will slow down the spread of the virus or kill it completely, though most flu viruses are negatively affected by warmer weather.

The best evidence is likely anecdotal, as countries with warm climates in the Southern Hemisphere and near the equator have actually been less-severely affected by COVID-19 than more northern countries like the United States, Russia, most of Europe and Canada. For instance, Australia, which first began reporting cases of the virus in February (similar to Northern Hemisphere's July), has had 6,674 reported cases, but only 78 deaths. Malaysia, whose capitol, Kuala Lumpur is situated 350 km or 217 miles from the equator, has reported 5,691 cases but only 96 deaths. This suggests that while the spread may be slowed somewhat, the virility, or severity, of the virus may be diminished. Time will tell, especially in the US and Europe, as warmer weather approaches and states and countries begin reopening their economies.

Since April 7, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the index of 30 leading US companies, has traded in a very thin range between 22,634 and 24,232, a mere 1,598 points in an extremely volatile market. The COBE Volatility Index, or VIX, which tracks volatility, has been below 39 just two times since March 5. Normally, the VIX holds between 10 and 18 with great regularity. Anything above 20 is considered to be edging toward extreme and readings over 40, which have been common during the coronavirus campaign, are rare. On March 18, the VIX registered a reading of 85.47, exceeded only by a high mark of 89.53, on October 24, 2008, at the height of the Great Financial Crisis.

Managing to keep the Dow in such a tight range can only be due to the Fed's massive inputs of cash to primary dealers via various funding vehicles created during the coronavirus crisis. Trillions of dollars have flowed to banks, who routinely put that currency to work buying stocks and keeping blue chip equities in a fairly well-defined pattern. Stocks go up, they go down, they go back up. The Fed is in control of what used to be a free, fair market. Freedom and fairness in publicly-traded stocks hasn't existed for quite some time. Now they are virtually extinct entities.

What most of the headlines and alternative media narrative suggests is that the global public is being used, abused and largely misinformed. Governments in developed nations are employing the virus and public lockdowns as cover for the failed global fiat currency economic system that will have to be replaced shortly, within six months to three years, depending on how long those in power can keep people from overthrowing the entrenched oligarchs, kleptocrats, cronies, and assorted liars and thieves in government, business, and the media.

When the new world currency is announced, it will likely be all digital (blockchain technology) because paper and coin currency is "dirty" and "may carry viruses." At least that would seem to fit the accepted game plan that's being etched out on an ongoing basis. It will be up to individuals - not governments - to either accept or reject new currencies offered by the same people who destroyed the old system or opt for alternatives like gold, silver, bitcoin, and the tried and true efficacies of bartering goods and services.

There may indeed be more than one global currency: one for international trade and governments, and one for everyday commerce by the people. Whatever occurs, the next few years are likely to be convulsive and disruptive to what most people consider normal.

At the Close, Thursday, April 23, 2020:
Dow: 23,515.26, +39.44 (+0.17%)
NASDAQ: 8,494.75, -0.63 (-0.01%)
S&P 500: 2,797.80, -1.51 (-0.05%)
NYSE: 10,916.67, +8.11 (+0.07%)

Stocks Rocket Higher on Hopes COVID-19 Threat Has Peaked; Gold Silver Remain in Short Supply with Hefty Premiums

According to Wall Street, the COVID-19 coronavirus crisis is all but over.

Stocks were being bought as if there weren't going to be any more available on Monday, as news spread that the coronavirus outbreak may have peaked in New York, which has been the epicenter of the crisis. Of the 367,758 confirmed cases in the United States, 130,689 are in New York state, mainly in the most populous part, New York City.

The state of New York accounts for 35% of the total cases in the US.

4,758 of those have resulted in death, a full 44% of the entire US death toll of 10,831.

What triggered the giddiness in the markets was the number of confirmed cases in New York falling for three straight days, though the 8,000+ increase from April 5 to April 6 was still a very large number.

There's no need for analysis of how the stock algorithms took the headlines. The 7.73% gain on the Dow Jones Industrial Average is proof enough that investors (or, at least the algos that guide the trades) believe the worst of the crisis is past.

This could be a case of some whistling past the graveyard, however, as the aftereffects from a near-nationwide lockdown and closure of many businesses have yet to be felt. The promised $1200 checks for most Americans haven't even begun to be distributed, which is causing more than a little consternation in many households which have been forced to work from home.

Along with kids out of school and assorted other odd conditions of voluntary confinement, millions of ordinary Americans have put up with the condition for over three weeks and are finding that states which did not impose "stay-at-home" recommendations have some of the lowest reported case numbers in the country.

Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, Oklahoma, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming are the eight remaining states without statewide orders after South Carolina's governor, Henry McMaster, ordered all residents of the state to remain at home except for visits with family members or essential outings to get groceries, medicine or exercise, to help slow the spread of the coronavirus on Monday.

South Carolina has 2,232 recorded cases of the virus, comparable to neighboring states North Carolina (2,870), Georgia (7,558), and Tennessee (3,802), all of which have had stay-at-home or similar orders in place for weeks.

Wyoming, with 210 cases documented, is the least-affected in the lower 48 states (Alaska, 191), and has issued only local ordinances. North Dakota (225) and South Dakota (288) are the next-lowest states. Neither of the Dakotas have any restrictive orders in place. The data suggests that the virus, while easily transmitted, is not gaining much traction in places that are sparsely populated and mostly rural. It remains to be seen whether these states will eventually see a huge outbreak from the virus. Only time will tell on that account.

For the majority of people outside of city centers, the virus has proven to be an annoyance, exacerbated by public officials wishing to appear concerned and active in fighting the spread.

With a death toll not even having approached the usual count from ordinary flu (about 40,000 in a typical season), there's growing pressure on the White House and governors to lift some restrictions and get people back to work. According to recent timelines, the country as a whole is within two weeks of the peak, if not already having reached that point.

With more than 10 million having already applied for unemployment insurance over the past two weeks, it's a near certainty that the number will ratchet higher when new claims numbers are released this Thursday.

The White House - which originally was considering a death toll of two million - has lowered its estimate on the number of deaths to 100,000 to 200,000 as the pandemic takes its toll. If the final tally comes in under the low of 100,000, there will likely be widespread criticism of the government effort, which may have saved some lives but crippled the economy, almost certain to enter a recession.

On the day, oil, after blistering gains last week, settled down, pricing around $26.40 per barrel for WTI crude. The price peaked Friday at $28.86.

The big move in stocks helped stall the rally in treasuries, though not significantly. The benchmark 10-year note moved five basis points, as yield increased from 0.62% to 0.67%.

Gold rallied throughout the day, ending at $1660.70 in New York, while silver also caught a bid, rising from $14.40 to $15.01 on the spot market. Prices for physical metal at the biggest dealers remains well above those quoted prices and delivery - due to a shortage - can take as many as 30 to 45 days. Many dealers report sold out inventories of the most popular coins and bars.

The US Mint is offering 2020 one ounce proof Silver Eagles for $64.50 and 2020 one ounce gold proof Eagles at $2,275. Ebay remains the most reliable source for coins and bars with fast delivery times (one to three days, typically).

At the Close, Monday, April 6, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 22,679.99, +1,627.46 (+7.73%)
NASDAQ: 7,913.24, +540.15 (+7.33%)
S&P 500: 2,663.68, +175.03 (+7.03%)
NYSE: 10,515.24, +634.61 (+6.42%)

Euro a Bit Higher; Stocks Barely Respond as Sinking Feeling Persists

After the first week of trading turned out to be one big cork pop on January 3rd - when the Dow soared 180 points, mostly at the open - and a slow melt lower, the first Monday of the new year was more evidence of just how sick, tired and moribund global markets have become. It's as though everybody is just waiting for the other shoe to drop, that some seismic implosion - most likely in Europe - is about to send stocks into a prolonged tailspin that ends in repudiation of sovereign debt and another huge blow to the fiat-based banking system.

Evidence exists that all is not well in Euroland, while pundits here in America point to the only positive metric they can see, higher corporate profits, though even there, signs are beginning to emerge that the record profits from 2011 are as fleeting as the passage of a few moments in time.

Estimates for 4th quarter corporate earnings have been slashed, and the number of pre-announcements from companies is at a three-year high, harkening back to the dismal days of early 2009, when there was nothing anybody or any company could do to halt the continuing downturn.

Even today's rather slow-moving market was full of tepid trading, highlighted by fractional moves in the averages, suggesting that nothing short of a complete overhaul of Europe's finances - and maybe even our own - can provide the kind of stimulus needed to restore investor confidence, which has waned severely since the middle of last year.

Even the bold joint pronouncement today by France's Nicolas Sarkozy and Germany's Angela Merkel failed to inspire any confidence. The two leaders set a timetable of March 1 for Euro-zone leaders to detail a plan of stricter budgetary restraint among member nations. Of course, critics and skeptics claim to have heard that song before. In the original agreement, a nation's current deficit was not supposed to exceed 3%. Any claims that sovereign states will clean up their balance sheets and act responsibly is met with jeers and, soon, tears.

America met a seminal moment in its own history today, as the nation's debt equalled its GDP, putting the world's powerhouse economy on a level approaching that of Italy, Greece or Portugal.

For its part, the White House appears ready to jettison all the bad residential loans held at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by turning them over to investors in bulk, with an eye toward turning over two million foreclosed and now-delinquent homes into rental properties, overseen by a hand-picked, large, well-capitalized property management firms.

The plan was first introduced by the Federal Reserve last week, though our friend Jim Willie, aka, the Golden Jackass, has been predicting such a move for the past two years, with deleterious effects abundant. The problems, from even a casual point of view, range from traditional homeowners being shut out of owning affordable housing and being forced to rent at increasingly-expensive rates, to the potential of default on property taxes should one of these "well-financed" firms going bust. It's almost the sub-prime crisis in reverse and is a radical departure from the American dream of home-ownership.

The property managers will likely receive sweet-heart deals from the government, slashing the prices to be paid on the homes instead of offering principal write-downs to strapped homeowners or new, qualified applicants because banks have been steadfastly denying mortgages and credit to even the most risk averse individuals and families.

We are quickly heading into a bleak, black hole of socialism, wherein the next shoe to drop won't be a ballet slipper but rather the boot of the storm trooper landing squarely on the necks of millions of tax-and-debt slaves, while the rich get bailouts and the poor get handouts.

Fairness is a word that seems to have permanently departed the American scene. Economic ugliness and despair approaches at breakneck speed all in the name of keeping up appearances.

After the closing bell, Alcoa (AA) kicked off earnings season with a disappointing, yet fitting, loss of three cents per share.

Dow 12,392.69, +32.77 (0.27%)
NASDAQ 2,676.56, +2.34 (0.09%)
S&P 500 1,280.70, +2.89 (0.23%)
NYSE Composite 7,583.76, +26.08 (0.35%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,777,449,250
NYSE Volume 3,248,196,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3385-2189
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 170-62
WTI crude oil: 101.31, -0.25
Gold: 1,608.10, -8.70
Silver: 28.78, +0.10