Equity traders and other market participants are probably happy this week is over.
Finishing up with the worst volume of the week - a week that witnessed the slowest level of trading activity in ten years - indices finished with a split decision once again.
Eschewing with the normal banter that would accompany a normal trading session, since today's was anything but normal, let's just move on to 2011. Beginning Monday, January 3, this column will feature predictions for 2011, as most of the mainstream predictors have fallen into the Kool-Aid drinking bullish category, we will offer some contrarian views.
Dow 11,577.51, +7.80 (0.07%)
NASDAQ 2,652.87, -10.11 (0.38%)
S&P 500 1,257.64, -0.24 (0.02%)
NYSE Composite 7,964.02, +12.11 (0.15%)
Advancing issues and decliners were almost evenly split, with gainers taking a narrow edge, 3257-3189. There were 86 new highs on the NASDAQ, to just 8 new lows. New highs on the NYSE numbered 104, while only 4 issues touched new lows.
NASDAQ Volume 959,300,187.50
NYSE Volume 2,148,760,500
The short-term shake-out in crude oil futures didn't even make it until the end of the year, with speculation taking the front-end contract up $1.54, to $91.38, something of a portentous final trade leading into the new year.
Gold finished with a nice gain to close out the year, up $17.50 on the continuous contract, to $1421.60, just ten dollars from its all-time high. Silver turned in the best performance of the year, a gain of 45 cents today sending it to $30.91, its highest point since 1980, and good for a gain of 83.7% on the year.
Gold and silver have been recommended so often here that it hardly needs repeating, but all prospects appear ripe for continued flight, away from fiat money and paper securities and directly into commodities and hard assets. Silver's massive run-up in 2010 might only be a precursor for a long, durable rally that will take the second precious metal to unimagined heights in 2011 and beyond.
Silver's rally, having started later than that of gold, may have more juice for steadfast holders and even new buyers. It is shaping up to be the century of silver. With sovereign fiat paper money stressed around the globe, even small, casual investors are making their way into the precious ore that seems ready for another monster run in coming months.
Farewell, 2010. Happy New Year!
Friday, December 31, 2010
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Data Ignored as Stocks Take a Rare Step Back
Another exceedingly dull session marked the penultimate trading day of the year, but, unlike the tree previous days, all indices finished in the red, showing marginal losses.
Initial unemployment claims came in at a seasonally-adjusted rate of 388,000, beating expectations (418,000), but the data set is marred by the non-seasonally-adjusted number, which came in at a whopping 521,834. Obviously, the BLS is doing a bang-up job at keeping the truth about the employment condition in America almost out of view.
Elsewhere, Chicago PMI surged To 68.6 on expectations Of 62.5, the highest since July 1988, another badly skewed statistic from the government's statistical fantasy factory.
If one were to believe these two reports (are you getting the idea that we don't?), the take-away would be that very few people were laid off following the holiday shopping season and our manufacturing base is vibrant and growing. The truth of the situation is that jobs are being shed as quickly as number-crunchers can adjust their bottom lines on excessively hyped same-store sales figures and the PMI is being fueled largely by cost inflation.
So, with one more dreary day ahead in the lowest volume week in ten years, traders, pundits, analysts and economists can hardly wait to put 2010, the year of the little lie, finally to rest. Without a doubt, 2011 will be better known as the year of the bigger lie.
Dow 11,569.71, -15.67 (0.14%)
NASDAQ 2,662.98, -3.95 (0.15%)
S&P 500 1,257.88, -1.90 (0.15%)
NYSE Composite 7,951.91, -9.57 (0.12%)
Declining issues edge advancers, 3282-3152, while NASDAQ cheered 152 new highs and jeered 17 new lows. The pattern was the same for the NYSE, with 149 new highs and just 8 new lows.
NASDAQ Volume 1,036,465,812.50
NYSE Volume 2,292,664,000
Crude oil finally took off some of the froth, dipping $1.28, to finish just below the $90 mark, at $89.84. Gold eased $7.60, to $1404.40, while silver also slowed, down 13 cents, to $30.47.
Initial unemployment claims came in at a seasonally-adjusted rate of 388,000, beating expectations (418,000), but the data set is marred by the non-seasonally-adjusted number, which came in at a whopping 521,834. Obviously, the BLS is doing a bang-up job at keeping the truth about the employment condition in America almost out of view.
Elsewhere, Chicago PMI surged To 68.6 on expectations Of 62.5, the highest since July 1988, another badly skewed statistic from the government's statistical fantasy factory.
If one were to believe these two reports (are you getting the idea that we don't?), the take-away would be that very few people were laid off following the holiday shopping season and our manufacturing base is vibrant and growing. The truth of the situation is that jobs are being shed as quickly as number-crunchers can adjust their bottom lines on excessively hyped same-store sales figures and the PMI is being fueled largely by cost inflation.
So, with one more dreary day ahead in the lowest volume week in ten years, traders, pundits, analysts and economists can hardly wait to put 2010, the year of the little lie, finally to rest. Without a doubt, 2011 will be better known as the year of the bigger lie.
Dow 11,569.71, -15.67 (0.14%)
NASDAQ 2,662.98, -3.95 (0.15%)
S&P 500 1,257.88, -1.90 (0.15%)
NYSE Composite 7,951.91, -9.57 (0.12%)
Declining issues edge advancers, 3282-3152, while NASDAQ cheered 152 new highs and jeered 17 new lows. The pattern was the same for the NYSE, with 149 new highs and just 8 new lows.
NASDAQ Volume 1,036,465,812.50
NYSE Volume 2,292,664,000
Crude oil finally took off some of the froth, dipping $1.28, to finish just below the $90 mark, at $89.84. Gold eased $7.60, to $1404.40, while silver also slowed, down 13 cents, to $30.47.
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
How High is Up? Stocks Continue Relentless Rise
It's absolutely amazing to anyone who's followed the markets for the past twenty years or more, how this current rally, based entirely on free money flowing from the Federal Reserve to the Primary Dealers, continues to defy the gravitational pull of low volume.
Just like the first two days of the week, Wednesday was full of nothing but hot air and the pretentious attitude that the US and the rest of the planet are in some kind of economic recovery and not being lifted by fumes, happy talk and a lack of market participants. This week should stand the test of time as the lowest volume week of at least the past 10 years.
Those few remaining players - the Primary Dealers, select hedge funds and some high-wealth individuals - managed to wring out even more gains as the Fed delivered the final POMO of the year, a mere $5.4 billion, though an amount adequate enough to lift this listless market significantly.
Dow 11,585.38, +9.84 (0.09%)
NASDAQ 2,666.93, +4.05 (0.15%)
S&P 500 1,259.78, +1.27 (0.10%)
NYSE Composite 7,961.48, +29.81 (0.38%)
Advancing issues swamped decliners, 3991-2544. NASDAQ new highs were at 120, with 15 stocks hitting new lows. On the NYSE, there were 189 new highs and just 16 new lows.
NASDAQ Volume 1,079,771,000
NYSE Volume 2,318,948,250
Commodities continued their path higher as well, as gold added another $4.70, to $1410.90 at this time, and silver gained 29 cents, eclipsing its previous 30-year high (Dec. 7, $30.50), now trading for $30.58 per ounce.
Crude oil for February delivery, the front-end contract on the NYMEX, took a 37-cent haircut, but is still dangerously high, at $91.12 per barrel.
We'll get unemployment claims before the opening bell on Thursday and no other data on Friday, the final trading day (and final day, period) of 2010, putting to rest a very painfully-slow post-holiday series of sessions.
One final note for the day. There's a duopoly that is just begging to be resolved. Short interest is at record lows while margin debt is at its highest level since the collapse of Lehman Bros. in 2008. Those two data sets cannot exist side-by-side for long without something breaking out somewhere.
Just like the first two days of the week, Wednesday was full of nothing but hot air and the pretentious attitude that the US and the rest of the planet are in some kind of economic recovery and not being lifted by fumes, happy talk and a lack of market participants. This week should stand the test of time as the lowest volume week of at least the past 10 years.
Those few remaining players - the Primary Dealers, select hedge funds and some high-wealth individuals - managed to wring out even more gains as the Fed delivered the final POMO of the year, a mere $5.4 billion, though an amount adequate enough to lift this listless market significantly.
Dow 11,585.38, +9.84 (0.09%)
NASDAQ 2,666.93, +4.05 (0.15%)
S&P 500 1,259.78, +1.27 (0.10%)
NYSE Composite 7,961.48, +29.81 (0.38%)
Advancing issues swamped decliners, 3991-2544. NASDAQ new highs were at 120, with 15 stocks hitting new lows. On the NYSE, there were 189 new highs and just 16 new lows.
NASDAQ Volume 1,079,771,000
NYSE Volume 2,318,948,250
Commodities continued their path higher as well, as gold added another $4.70, to $1410.90 at this time, and silver gained 29 cents, eclipsing its previous 30-year high (Dec. 7, $30.50), now trading for $30.58 per ounce.
Crude oil for February delivery, the front-end contract on the NYMEX, took a 37-cent haircut, but is still dangerously high, at $91.12 per barrel.
We'll get unemployment claims before the opening bell on Thursday and no other data on Friday, the final trading day (and final day, period) of 2010, putting to rest a very painfully-slow post-holiday series of sessions.
One final note for the day. There's a duopoly that is just begging to be resolved. Short interest is at record lows while margin debt is at its highest level since the collapse of Lehman Bros. in 2008. Those two data sets cannot exist side-by-side for long without something breaking out somewhere.
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