Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Dow Down 400+ Points Since QE2

Since the inception of the Fed's QE2 program, throwing billions of dollars at Primary Dealers in exchange for Treasuries - essentially monetizing the government's debt - stocks have suffered mightily, posting losses in 11 of the past 16 sessions and dropping a whopping 445 points since November 7.

Currently, the scapegoat is the dastardly Irish, who chose a most inopportune time for their banks to become wholly insolvent and in needs of rescue by the European Union. With debt contagion spreading across to the continent in rapid fashion, the Euro has declined against the greenback, taking the fun of a weak currency trade along with it. As the dollar has strengthened, US stocks have nose-dived, and the rout is clearly underway, whether Ben Bernanke wishes to admit it or not.

Action on the markets today was entirely below the 50-day moving average on the Dow, and ended, after a midday respite, to the downside for the third session in a row. Blaming the Irish may be good sport for Fed bankers, but problems in the Eurozone certainly don't bode well for the ailing US economy. The slow-motion train wreck of Western economies which began in 2007 with the sub--prime mortgage unwind, is, after a $20 trillion reprieve from 2008 to the present, set to gather momentum and careen off the tracks again.

What will eventually prove to be the US economic undoing is still debatable. An expose of Bank of America's immoral and despicable practices in the mortgage arena has been put on the table by Wikileaks' founder Julien Assange. Shares of the Charlotte, NC-based bank fell to a 2-year low, closing at 10.95, on fears of such an event.

Perhaps Ireland's Parliament will just say no to the bank bailout being shoved down their throats by the equally-corrupt European Union, which itself may be a forgotten relic of a failed experiment in a few year's time.

Closer to home, it appears that the lame-duck congress has its hands full in the dwindling time before they decide to do what they do best - go home and do nothing - tackling issues such as the Bush tax cuts and jobless benefits have seen little movement. Congress must also pass a continuing resolution to keep the government operating by December 4, which just happens to be this Friday.

Tomorrow, ADP releases its normal private sector employment report, this one for the month of November, as a precursor to the BLS non-farm payroll data on Friday, which could also sway markets. Consensus seems to be calling for the nation to have created 130-150,000 new jobs in the month. Any number less robust than that could set off investor alarms again.

For today, another $6 billion pumped from the Fed to Primary dealers did little to stem the tide of selling. Stocks rebounded off their morning lows, but suffered a setback in the final hour, all major indices finishing deep in red ink.

Dow 11,006.02, -46.47 (0.42%)
NASDAQ 2,498.23, -26.99 (1.07%)
S&P 500 1,180.55, -7.21 (0.61%)
NYSE Composite 7,430.94, -52.40 (0.70%)


Losses were widespread as losers outnumbered gainers, 4290-2137. New highs numbered 156, while new lows closed to gap, at 103. In an obvious sign of weakness, volume ramped up to numbers not seen since election day.

NASDAQ Volume 2,429,697,750
NYSE Volume 5,643,896,500


Oil took a solid hit, losing $1.62, to $84.11, though it remains at elevated levels. Gold was a star, shooting up $19.20, to $1,386.70 per ounce. Silver also posted a strong gain of 89 cents, to finish at $28.09 on the COMEX.

FUD (Fear, uncertainty and doubt) are on the rise again and the Fed seems powerless to do anything but print more money.

Monday, November 29, 2010

Day-Traders Paradise

Forget fundamentals.

There is no reason to even bother examining a stock's recent performance, p/e ratio, cash flow, balance sheet or any other metric which might have some impact on earnings or performance because the stock market in the USA is now run by computers, and computers don't care about stocks, they only care about momentum, price and volume.

Add to that the fact that these computers are programmed by PhD's who don't know squat about markets, and even less about individual stocks. After that, add in near-infinite liquidity (free money) courtesy of the Federal Reserve's QE2 program and you have the makings for one very dysfunctional investment landscape.

Therefore, mere humans, especially those trading from the comforts of home, are at a distinct disadvantage. Only the major brokerages and banks are allowed to reap huge profits, not mere mortals who suffer from emotion and are terribly slow compared to the market-busting super-computers employed by the big firms and the HFTs.

Today was a perfect example of the dysfunction prevalent throughout the securities complex. In the morning, amid fears of growing problems in Europe on the back of the Ireland bank-bailout, stocks suffered enormous losses, with the Dow dipping by as many as 162 points shortly after 10:00 am. Of course, that was before the Fed floated some $9 billion to their pals on Wall Street to stage a comeback.

The day-trading slobs, like Lloyd Blanfien, CEO of Goldman Sachs, surely made a killing, as they do every day, manipulating the markets to their own delight and profit, all the while hammering the small investor and mutual fund managers at the margins.

Dow 11,052.49, -39.51 (0.36%)
NASDAQ 2,525.22, -9.34 (0.37%)
S&P 500 1,187.76, -1.64 (0.14%)
NYSE Composite 7,483.34, -17.20 (0.23%)


By the final bell, things were still in the red, though only slightly. Losers beat winners by a margin of 3645-2787; 155 issues made new highs, 85 recorded new lows. Volume was as usual: pathetic, but that's what you get when only computers are playing. Someday - and we can only hope it is soon - the computers will be forced to prey upon each other.

NASDAQ Volume 1,693,482,250
NYSE Volume 4,207,444,500


Oil priced itself another $1.87 higher, to $85.73 a barrel. Gold bounded all over the place, last showing a gain of $3.20, at $1367.40. Silver added 43 cents, to $27.13.

Just for those who think they've got it rough, here's a touching story about a family who blew $14 million in ten years. A great read, if you dislike people with money who are simply morons.

And, in the latest pandering PR move from the White House, President Obama called for a two-year wage freeze for civilian federal employees. The timing of this is particularly amusing, since federal wages reached an all-time high in 2010. The proposal needs congressional approval, so we'll see if the Tea Partiers recently elected to congress have any bite. It should be noted that some of them ran on platforms that called for cutting federal pay by 7-10%.

Good luck with that.

The final piece of sobering news is how governments will readily use public trust money to ensure than wealthy bondholders don't suffer any losses. The case in point is Ireland's 85 billion Euro aid package, which will be funded in part from government pension reserves, to the tune of 17.5 billion Euros.

That's how it's going to play out here in America, too, folks. All you people thinking you're going to get a nice pension check every month better start learning the new math. Cut that check in half by 2015, if you're lucky. As for Social Security, the Ponzi scheme of the past century, one would be well-advised to not count on that at all.

Friday, November 26, 2010

Main Street's Black Friday Turns Blood Red on Wall Street

Mmmm, that's going to leave a mark...

In the continuing control fraud series of gap up/down opens, stocks took the predictable nosedive version today - predictable in that Wednesday's close was greatly to the upside.

With the Dow opening at around 11,100, about 85 points below the previous close, we have the now-well-known condition of trapped longs, who bought and held during Wednesday's uptick rally. In general terms, if you bought on Wednesday and sold on Friday, unhedged, you lost and are now puking up the remnants of your Thanksgiving dinner.

A wiser course of action might have been avoiding the stock markets altogether and making some illegal wagers on football games via the internet. At least you might have won, with the added bonus of the winnings being tax-free. Even had you lost your bets, you could mentally write off the sour investment as entertainment value.

Stocks skidded pretty badly, and, devoid of volume, had no inclination of reversing course, especially since it was a half-day and trading was even more scarce than normal. The run rate was even worse than some of the slowest days - and there have been many since the 2008 collapse - making Black Friday look like a blood-drip from the arteries of the Wall Street Scam money machinery.

Dow 11,092.00, -95.28 (0.85%)
NASDAQ 2,534.56, -8.56 (0.34%)
S&P 500 1,189.40, -8.95 (0.75%)
NYSE Composite 7,500.54, -78.72 (1.04%)


Declining issues dominated winners, 4054-2064. New highs:185; New lows: 51. Volume: fagetaboutit.

NASDAQ Volume 623,831,125
NYSE Volume 1,778,664,375


Oil finished unchanged, at $83.86 per barrel, keeping the price just high enough to extend the prices at the gas pumps for the remainder of the holiday weekend. Gold last printed at $1364.20, down $10.90 on the day, while silver kicked 89 cents lower, to $26.70. Those awaiting a reversion in silver may be seeing the beginning of a 50% pullback of the recent rally, which would put the lustrous metal at $23 and change. A 67% retracement would send it to about $21, at which point one would be highly inclined to begin accumulation for the next leg up, to $35 in the first half of 2011. Of course, a global deflation may take all technical data off the table, rendering all asset classes subject to major price reversals.

Speculation in land may be a viable alternative in the first half of 2011, though another round of descending prices should occur with a massive number of defaults and possible widespread bank failures.

Bank of America continues to be the stock to watch as far as real estate is concerned, as they have - through their 2007 purchase of Countrywide - the largest exposure in residential real estate of any of the major players. The stock hit all cherries today, closing at 11.11, remaining in the bottom of its recent range, and lower than the October 25 close, at the tail end of the "foreclosure crisis." Bank of American (BAC) is signaling what's ahead for homeowners, with already more than 25% of homes with mortgages "underwater," more pain to come, resulting in slower sales at lower prices for the truly most distressed of a growing mountain of distressed sellers.

2011 may turn out to be the year everything finally goes over the edge. Congress and the president haven't yet address the mortgage/banking fraud in any meaningful way, except to hand the banks more money with which to shore up their aching balance sheets and kick the fraud further down the road. Without a workable solution that includes 30-40% principal forgiveness - anathema to any blue-blooded banker - expect real estate prices to decline another 20-25% overall and the US economy to continue floundering like a beached whale.

While many believe we've avoided the dreaded "double-dip" recession scenario for this year, the next one may prove to be even more severe than the first, though even a minor recession leaves the Fed, White House and congress without any useful policy tools. The likely outcome would be to print more money, unless Tea Partiers in congress force the Fed's hand by denying any raise of the debt ceiling in early 2011. An unlikely outcome, but still potentially the best - though painful to the extreme - medicine.

2010 continues to grind towards its conclusion, with optimism bolstered by millions of shoppers on the busiest day of the year. If Christmas saves the retailers and wider stock market, there may be a significant overhang heading into the new year which could collapse stocks as earnings peak out with nowhere to go but down.

Lovely, isn't it?

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

The Greatest Scam on Earth Run by Tyrants, Thieves and Traitors

If one didn't know any better, one might come to the conclusion - after viewing market activity on the NYSE and NASDAQ for a few days - that the markets are somehow rigged to never give correct signals and to never follow the same pattern as the day before.

And so it is with our markets, constantly being churned by the big players who will use CNBC as their foil to gin up any kind of story that fits the desired narrative of the day. Yesterday, Ireland's bailout, a flare-up in tensions on the North-South Korea border and raids on hedge funds by the FBI (no, CNBC barely mentions that dirty bit of business), sent stocks down for the day, with the Dow surrendering 142 points.

Today, based solely on improved numbers from the greasy BLS stack of initial unemployment claims (407,000 for the week, a short week at that and sure to be revised higher as they do 90% of the time) stocks gapped up as though yesterday's event occurred in a vacuum or were never really a big deal after all. What gap ups or downs at the open do is trap traders in overnight positions. Only the deft day-trading sharpies at Merrill, Goldman Sachs, et. al., are able to slide seamlessly in and out of stocks without mishap. Individual investors have the deck stacked entirely against them, suffering from limited knowledge, and, as the FBI raids confirm, widespread use of illegal inside information.

Trading in US stocks has become such an open scam that it's laughable to even think of investing in any listed companies. The markets have become completely the province of sophisticated high-rollers who daily prey on the wealth of those invested in mutual funds, 401K plans or individual stocks.

No further proof is needed. It's so blatant and obvious, just compare the trading yesterday and today (scroll down for yesterday's final numbers), and you can see for yourself that the Wall Street mob is running a game more crooked than any three-card monty would ever aspire to be.

In case you're unconvinced, consider that "traders" today completely ignored a 28% drop in new home sales year-over-year and a 3.3% decline in durable goods orders from the previous month.

The closing numbers for the two days are virtually a mirror image with only the plus and minus signs the only differential. What was down yesterday was up today, and the same thing happens over and over and over, until, of course, the big money wants to take it all radically higher or lower and then they induce panic or a two month rally, like the one we just had, lasting from September through the end of October.

A recent government report implied that 20% of Americans are mentally ill, but the number of suckers stuck in retirement plans and mutual funds that are invested in stocks suggests that the number should be much higher, because one would have to be out of their mind to invest in what is nothing more than a rigged carnival game, complete with the same bells at the open and close that one would hear at a casino when the slot machines hit a jackpot.

Except in the case of Wall Street the jackpot is only for the privileged few.

Dow 11,187.28, +150.91 (1.37%)
NASDAQ 2,543.12, +48.17 (1.93%)
S&P 500 1,198.35, +17.62 (1.49%)
NYSE Composite 7,579.26, +108.49 (1.45%)


Advancing issues ramped up well beyond decliners, 5191-1273. New Highs topped new lows, 329-53. Volume was at its lowest level in weeks, which the absolute moronic explanation would be due to the impending holiday, though it really is only more evidence of fraud.

NASDAQ Volume 1,648,491,625
NYSE Volume 3,743,356,250


Another big surprise was the rise in the price of oil, which is tied to gasoline prices at the pump, which shot up $2.61, to $83.86, just before one of the busiest driving periods of the year. Again, big surprise.

Gold fell $3.90, to $1372.60. Silver added six cents, to finish at $27.57. One can clearly see more evidence of fraud on a day that the dollar is up sharply and oil sets off on its own. The normal relationship is for oil to lessen in price when the dollar strengthens and increase when the dollar falls. It's what we've come to expect, though one should suppose that with the now-permanently rigged markets, the only relationship that matters is the big money trying to take more from unprotected individuals.

The FBI raids are a unique feature of the completed control market. Those being raided are the low-hanging fruit. We're tantalized by Goldman Sachs being mentioned as part of the probe, though we know they are exempt. No truly big players will ever receive as much as a subpoena, as the government needs those guys to keep funding their illicit raiding and fining procedures.

And that's all it's about. The government isn't squeezing enough money out of ordinary taxpayers - that well's run dry - so they go after the low hanging fruit that is the hedge fund industry.

Will the fraud and abuse ever end? Absolutely, but the price paid will be either buckets of blood from patriots willing to stand against the oppressive, fascist government-finance coalition, or the lives and livelihoods of millions of Americans and their children and grandchildren, a longer, more devastating prospect.

One need not look for this writer in the bread lines or poverty camps. He'll gladly die for what's right than live a lie, without a future. The frauds must be exposed and the guilty tried, jailed and made to make restitution for the billions stolen from ordinary Americans. That day may never come, but if it does, it will be none too soon.

Be thankful for what we have today, but bear in mind that we are being denied much more, as long as we remain in the grip of tyrants, thieves and traitors.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Investor Pain Spreading Rapidly

Ireland's continuing crisis, more trouble ahead in the Eurozone, a skirmish on the Korean border and general unease led to the stock markets finally breaking in a definitive way to the downside.

Unlike yesterday's miracle, out-of-the-blue rally, there was no such respite or savior for stocks today as the realization that while many businesses are doing well, the general global economy continues to display weakness in slack demand, collapsing governments and seas of debt.

Dow 11,036.37, -142.21 (1.27%)
NASDAQ 2,494.95, -37.07 (1.46%)
S&P 500 1,180.73, -17.11 (1.43%)
NYSE Composite 7,470.77, -139.53 (1.83%)


Declining issues crushed advancers, 4960-1560, though it was much worse through much of the session. Combined NYSE and NASDAQ new highs were 92, edged by 93 new lows. Volume was a little better than previous sessions, though that's not necessarily good news as investors were selling en masse.

NASDAQ Volume 1,902,546,250
NYSE Volume 4,711,580,500


Oil closed down 49 cents, at $81.25. Gold surged $19.80, to $1,377.60 and silver added 11 cents, at $27.57.

The Fed released minutes of their most recent meeting (November 2-3), which revealed that there was a sizable split between factions for and against a second round of qualitative easing. It would appear that Chairman Ben Barnanke does not have the support he might desire in his mad dash to destroy the US currency.

Seven days into QE2, the markets have gone straight backwards and interest rates on 5-and-10-year Treasury bonds have spiked, though they have leveled off over the past few days. It's evident to anyone with half a brain that the US economy and the banking sector, in particular, are still suffering from the strains of near-collapse and the methods employed to contain the damage, which, to date, haven't worked.

If Ban Bernanke is hell-bent on throwing away $700-800 billion dollars, the taxpayers should not be on the hook for it, but try telling that to our do-nothing president, largely absent and presumably on mood-altering drugs Congress, insipid Treasury Secretary and invisible Attorney General.

They're not listening, so you should not be paying. Period.