Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Government About to Shut Down; Somebody Turn Out the Lights

Even in advance of what looks like an almost sure government shutdown, the greed of Wall Street shines through. Stocks must go up. I have no words to properly express the absolute lunacy into which the entire world has been thrust by the banking/political elite.

Dow 12,426.75, +32.85 (0.27%)
NASDAQ 2,799.82, +8.63 (0.31%)
S&P 500 1,335.54, +2.91 (0.22%)
NYSE Composite 8,508.23, +19.84 (0.23%)


Advancers finished well ahead of declining issues, 3778-2714. On the NASDAQ, there were 211 new highs and 21 new lows, a ratio of 10:1. On the NYSE, that ratio was 33:1, with 301 new highs and 9 (nine) new lows. These are extremes, and, like all extremes, unsustainable under normal circumstances, which currently are not. Also normally unsustainable is a rising stock market on abysmally-low volume, as has been the case for well over two years.

NASDAQ Volume 1,982,290,875
NYSE Volume 4,404,181,000


If there's a breaking point, oil will find it. WTI crude lifted today another 49 cents, to another new 2 1/2 year high, at $108.83. The average cost of a gallon of gas in the United States is now $3.71. Alaska, Hawaii and California are already averaging over $4.00 per gallon for unleaded regular.

The precious metals became even more precious. Gold gained another $6.00, to reach another record high of $1,458.50. Silver was up 20 cents, to $39.39. Both metals were qouted considerably higher during the day before some profit-taking. In the event of a government shut-down, expect the metals to rocket even higher. A prolonged shutdown, of two weeks or longer, should produce fireworks the likes of which financial markets have never seen. Gold would likely gain $200-300, and silver would easily surpass $45 in short order.

On the flip side, the stock market might crash, making the implausible, reality, plus the added benefit of having the politicians as convenient scapegoats.

Nothing could be more predictable from the scum of Wall Street and Washington.

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Markets Struggle Through Late-Session Sell-Off; Metals Soar

Disappointed that government leaders met and failed to reach agreement on a compromise plan that would keep the government from shutting down later this week, investors mostly headed for the hills late in the day.

With the North Africa, Middle East and Japan worries already weighing on the markets, the idea that the federal government would shut down at the end of the week seemed to be the last straw. President Obama met with House Republican leader John Boehner and Senate majority leader Harry Reid, but failed to reach any meaningful understanding on the proposed spending bill making its way through congress.

The politicians are squabbling over whether to cut anywhere from $35 to $61 billion dollars from the remaining 2011 budget, with the fiscal year ending in September. It's all become just bad theater, with both parties' leaders posturing and waving their arms about like crazed lunatics. In the end, the cuts will matter little, since the money will be re-appropriated in the next or an upcoming session and all of it is borrowed anyway.

Besides the amounts differing by so little, the amount of "cuts" is laughable, at well less than 1% of total federal outlays, which totaled more than $4 trillion in the 2010-11 budget.

Still, investors worry that the money spigot from Washington may be cut off in some unfathomable way that could affect them, though prospects for anything changing very much - even in the case of a shutdown - are slim.

Another worry is that the government exceeds the debt ceiling, which some contend has already been breached, so that the government would not have funds available to service their debt, sending interest rates soaring and confidence - what little of that is left - in the United States plummeting.

As such, stocks retreated in unison in the afternoon after racking up decent morning gains, the major indices finishing in split fashion.

Dow 12,393.90, -6.13 (0.05%)
NASDAQ 2,791.19, +2.00 (0.07%)
S&P 500 1,332.63, -0.24 (0.02%)
NYSE Composite 8,488.39, +5.98 (0.07%)


Gainers beat losers by a narrow margin, 3456-3000. On the NASDAQ, there were 203 new highs and 34 new lows, while the NYSE saw 284 stocks reach new highs and only 14 make new lows. Volume was materially better than Monday's dreadfully slow session.

NASDAQ Volume 1,967,010,125
NYSE Volume 4,186,267,250


The real story of the day came from the commodity pits. While WTI Crude futures slipped slightly, down 13 cents, to $108.34, gold powered ahead $19.50, to a new, all-time closing high of $1,452.50. Silver was also on the buying list, adding 69 cents, to $39.18, the highest price since 1980.

What the gold and silver physical markets (if you're in an EFT, you'll likely never actually see or touch the silver or gold your shares represent) are telling us is that the level of fear and distrust has risen to feverish levels. Beyond $4/gallon gas and a nuclear holocaust in Japan, the threat of a major credit and/or liquidity crisis has once again reared its ugly head, this time in the threatened shutdown of the US federal government.

Whether the politicians are merely toying with the emotions of the American people or serious about failing to resolve their budgetary differences, the world is watching and most don't like what they see.

Expect more turbulence in days to come unless the government situation is resolved prudently and in all due haste. MAybe then somebody can take a look at those Japanese reactors which threaten to kill everybody with radioactive isotopes unless a solution is found, like entombment.

Monday, April 4, 2011

No Volume, No Follow-through After Jobs Data

With the markets closing Friday in a state of ebullience and optimism, the Monday morning hangover was worse than expected.

Stocks got out of the gate well, with the averages hitting their highs of the day early on, but there was no catalyst and thus, no enthusiasm for either buying or selling, though tech stocks suffered more than most.

Stocks drifted in listless fashion on what will almost certainly turn out to be one of the five lowest trading volume sessions of the year thus far. Appetite for risk has been muted by world events, the least of which being the continuing saga of the nuclear reactors melting down at Fukushima Daiichi facility in Japan.

High levels of radiation have been found hither and fro, even in the United States, where air and water readings were above safe levels in communities from the West coast all the way east to Pennsylvania.

As for Japan itself, the situation appears even more out of control, as both the government and TEPCO, the utility company responsible for the failures, have run out of viable options for containment. If not for the "fear factor" the mainstream media would be full of horror stories, but the prevailing wisdom is not to alarm the populace over what looks to be already as bad as or worse than the disaster of Chernobyl, 25 years ago, a man-made calamity now estimated to have caused over a million deaths and multiple times that number in birth defects, miscarriages, and diseases.

With Japan's nuclear woes - where the "dead zone" is expected to eventually be 30 to 40 miles in all directions from the plant - the general mood of the people is a thinly-disguised panic and a heightened level of distrust of authorities. Said distrust is with good cause. The officials handling the situation are either incompetent, stupid, afraid or a combination of all three, and have yet to reassure the Japanese people of anything, other than the situation remains a catastrophe with potential to become even worse.

High gas prices have also put a damper on the proceedings worldwide, with both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hitting 33-month highs on the day. Continued unrest in the oil-rich Middle East and North African countries - Libya, Bahrain, Kuwait, Yemen and now Ivory Coast - haven't helped slow down the oil rally and the onset of $4/gallon gas in the US.

So, little surprise that nothing is moving in the world of high finance.

Dow 12,400.03, +23.31 (0.19%)
NASDAQ 2,789.19, -0.41 (0.01%)
S&P 500 1,332.87, +0.46 (0.03%)
NYSE Composite 8,482.41, +13.07 (0.15%)


The level of disdain could be clearly seen in market internals. Advancing issues narrowly bettered decliners on the day, 3006-2630, though NASDAQ new highs soared against new lows, 222-30, while on the NYSE, the bias was the same, with new highs beating new lows, 259-15. As mentioned earlier, volume was extremely light.

NASDAQ Volume 1,679,897,000
NYSE Volume 3,273,874,500


WTI crude futures hit $108.47, a gain of 53 cents, the highest level since June of 2008. Prices above $4.00 per gallon for regular unleaded have been reported in New York, Chicago and various California locales.

Gold inched closer to all-time highs, gaining $4.10, to $1,433.00, while silver exploded to 31-year highs, ending the NY session on the COMEX at $38.49, on a gain of 76 cents (2%).

The stark comparisons between the economic climate today and that of 2008 could not be clearer. High oil and gas prices, a stagnating stock market close to multi-year highs nearing the end of a long bull run, ramping foreclosures and falling real estate values, and political uncertainty carry all the trademarks which eventually led to the great unwinding in Fall 2008.

Three years hence, after trillions of dollars in stimulus, the very same banks that caused the calamity before are still leveraged to the hilt, hiding liabilities off the books and still in denial over their true, illiquid conditions.

For mood to change so impressively from good to bad over the weekend is stunning. Americans and the world at large should be prepared for another round of asset-crushing deflation once the Fed decides to stop printing dollars into existence come June.

Friday, April 1, 2011

Perception Trumps Reality: Stocks Buoyed by Jobs Data

Like it or not, most of the people who watch these kinds of numbers generally accept what the BLS calls "data" as being somewhere close to the truth. Regardless of opinions on the birth-death metric, various seasonal adjustments and the entire methodology which leaves out discouraged workers, March non-farm payroll provided a boost to markets prior to the bell, posting a monthly jobs gain of 216,000.

Broken down, the private sector showed a gain of 230,000 jobs, while the public sector - government - shed 14,000 in March. That ticked the unemployment rate down to 8.8% and marked the first time in five years that private employers added more than 200,000 net new jobs.

In the widest general terms possible, it was rousing good news for the US economy and the stock market, whether the robust numbers are true or not. Stocks galloped out of the gate, gave much of their gains back in the afternoon and finished on an uptick.

Dow 12,376.72, +56.99 (0.46%)
NASDAQ 2,789.60, +8.53 (0.31%)
S&P 500 1,332.41, +6.58 (0.50%)
NYSE Composite 8,469.34, +64.36 (0.77%)


Advancing issues led decliners by a solid margin, 4204-2339. NASDAQ showed 249 new highs and 29 new lows. The same spread was in effect on the NYSE, with 382 new highs and 12 new lows, even more an extreme spread than yesterday's already overbought situation. Volume was slightly better than the low, low numbers posted all week.

NASDAQ Volume 2,057,080,375
NYSE Volume 4,220,516,000


The bad news of the day came from the commodity space, where crude oil hit another 2 1/2 year high, closing at $107.94, up $1.22 on the day. With equities soaring and the outlook for extending the Fed's QE program past June dying on the vine, precious metals took an untimely hit, with gold dropping $11.00, to $1,428.90, and silver falling in tandem, down 16 cents, at $37.73.

As the second quarter starts out on a positive note, investors appear pleased with recent gains, unemployment actually appears to be on the wane and the governors of Federal Reserve are taking bows and praise for how they've handled the as-yet-unresolved financial crisis.

With the caveat that the financial media might be spinning everything a bit more positively than most would dare, America seems not ready to fall into the ocean of debt below it, nor does the congress have gained much in the way of fiscal restraint, though signs of progress have been noted, especially in the House of Representatives.

There's still enormous problems which have yet to be sorted out, but only the robustness of the American economy can be credited with having withstood shocks equally from the financial, natural and political spheres.

While this space has been generally devoted to the darker sides of the economic debate for quite some time, Mr. and Mrs. Average American don't read Fed minutes, track commodity prices or even understand what a credit default swap is. Rather, the bulwark of American enterprise wants only to go to work, receive a fair pay rate and raise their families.

It is a fact that Americans still maintain the highest standard of living on the planet and despite its detractors, maintains a safe, livable environment for even the poorest of its citizens. The world revolves around the US dollar, love it, hate it or loathe it, and it probably will for some time. There are many problems still needing correction, but for today at least, the dark clouds of the past few years seem to be parting and the sunshine of economic freedom is shining through.

Maybe the words of Peter Benenson, the English lawyer and founder of Amnesty International, are appropriate for today: "It is better to light a candle than curse the darkness."

Kicked Off Zero Hedge for Interposing Perception with Reality

Following the release of today's non-farm payroll for March (+216,000), the level of insanity at the usually-nutty-anyways Zero Hedge blog went over the edge as the site's operators simply could not stomach the idea that maybe the government can fudge statistics enough to "match the policy" (a term made popular during the Iraq War) with seven posts covering all angles on the NFP data.

Naturally, being that Zero Hedge is a hangout of gold bugs, canned food hoarders, survivalists, anarchists and iconoclasts of every stripe, the perception that 216,000 new jobs were created in March could not go unchallenged, so every attempt was made to discredit the government figures.

I applaud the efforts of Zero Hedge. They usually are pretty good at picking up on the daily failures and fabrications of the military industrial complex, and no doubt, CNBC and the shills for limitless stock buying (Perma-bulls) offer up an endless stream of material for their usual antiestablishment agenda.

But, I was surprised that upon posting some comments that drifted from the company line (government evil, bankers evil, Fed evil, gold and silver good), trying to rile up the assembled loonies, that my posting privileges had been summarily denied, my username deleted. When trying to post comments, I was met, not with a login prompt, but with this:
The username Fearless Rick has not been activated or is blocked.

Now, I've been booted from message boards before, most notably on eBay, for disagreeing with policy, but getting kicked off Zero Hedge is another story altogether, because of what they are supposed to represent: an alternative view, a departure from the norm, a counterbalance to the mainstream media.

I normally like the site, generally get good ideas from their articles (mostly reprints or excerpts of stories posted elsewhere on the web) and post my own comments often. Being banned from posting there really gave me pause, though.

A couple of comments by me not in the general spirit... here's two:

Where's Harry Wanger! He's kicked the crap out of most of our resident geniuses by picking stocks using the tried-and-true "throw darts" method.

Wall Street is laughing its ass off at ZH. Time to get back to work, serfs!

and
Over: 7 articles related to NFP. Number of typos in headlines: 2. TD needs to add +1 to the NFP data by hiring a proofreader.

Now, where's that CogDis guy? Zero Hedge readers are suffering from CD by not believing that government can create statistics to "match the policy." Now where did we hear that term before?

That little bit of taunting was, I suppose, too much criticism to accept by the mongolian editorial board at Zero Hedge. One must not bite the hand that handles the daily propaganda feed. The politburo cannot be criticized and in no way can their secrets be exposed. One must drink the Kool-aid, no matter how distasteful the flavor.

I broke the unwritten rules. C'est la vie. Que sera, sera. I was banned.

The episode gave me pause to reflect upon exactly what Zero Hedge - modeled after the fictional movie Fight Club - actually represents. Capitalism would be a good start. After all, the site actively solicits donations in addition to running the maximum allotment of Google AdSense ads on their page(s).

They are no more anti-capitalist than the Wall Street Journal or the United Way in that regard. They need money to operate, just like the rest of us.

But banning from comment those who disagree or at times are critical - like me - effectively negates all of their very own Fight Club creed and substantially reduces their level of credibility to that of outright hypocrisy.

Maybe I missed something in the movie, something about the need to follow orders and obey, obey, OBEY! I'll have to watch Fight Club again, I guess, and search for more hidden meaning.

Or maybe Tyler Durden can enlighten me.

Somehow, I doubt that, because prosperity, whether imagined or real, is anathema to the Zero Hedge business model.

Fight Club should rename itself Punk Club.