The headline says all you need to know.
Stocks spent the entire day languishing in a narrow, negative range, on really ugly volume (it was, after all, a (half)holiday, Columbus Day), but pared early losses to finish marginally down, except for the NASDAQ, which was dragged down considerably by Apple (AAPL).
Other than the usual Monday blues, there was no economic data to report as traders await third quarter earnings reports, which will be kicked off by Alcoa (AA) Tuesday after the bell.
There's some noise coming from Europe, which may not be all good. The first meeting of the ESM was today, though the ministers spent most of the time arguing about just how big Europe's main bailout fund should be.
Here's a clue for them all: whatever you decide on, it will not be enough.
Dow 13,583.65, -26.50 (0.19%)
NASDAQ 3,112.35, -23.84 (0.76%)
S&P 500 1,455.88, -5.05 (0.35%)
NYSE Composite 8,358.86, -25.21 (0.30%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,173,675,250
NYSE Volume 2,305,869,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2020-3386
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 174-51
WTI crude oil: 89.33, -0.55
Gold: 1,775.70, -5.10
Silver: 34.02, -0.555
Monday, October 8, 2012
Friday, October 5, 2012
Reliability, Persistence and Consistency; NFP Number Disagreeable to All
Irony.
It slices to the heart like a butcher's knife through a sheave of pork... or chicken, appropriate, for the occasional sarcastic remark, refrained from by those with more sense than the norm.
Today's post, Reliability, Persistence and Consistency, was supposed to have been written yesterday. So much for prescience and the timeliness of a message not delivered.
As the matter may be, the trio go together well. While consistency may or may not inspire a reliable nature, so too persistence can be the godfather of both. In the end, the verbiage required for an adequate discussion of the value of virtuousness is far too great to be expensed on a Friday afternoon. Better to leave things unsaid than say them wrongly, even as the wrongs of others may force the hand into parody, mirth or an occasional lilting melodrama.
As for the markets, so much nothing about nothing much. The greatly-anticipated non-farm payroll report for September left much to be desired on both the bullish and bearish sides of the equation. The actual number of 114,000 net job gain was so close to all official and unofficial estimates as to be nothing more than a hiccup, though traders made the best of it, sending stocks rocketing at the open and trading them down throughout the session and into the close.
A great deal has been and will be made of the unemployment rate flopping to 7.8%. It's pure rubbish, concocted from flimsy data with maximum massage President Oblahblah will feel a s rush of relief. Since FDR, no president has won re-election with an official unemployment rate over 8.0 percent. It's a winning number for a second term. What utter nonsense, because, if the truth be known, the comparison to FDR is apt, so the chances are good that Obama could be re-elected with an unemployment rate of 10 or 15 percent, such is the economic condition of the nation.
May decimal point profits and losses were made by those who find day-trading a pleasurable occupation. For the rest of us, it didn't really matter, much like Wednesday night's Presidential Debate, an over-flouted fiasco of sound that greatly interfered with the finale of the baseball season, which, notably, was without great tension and tumult, except, of course, for fans of the Oakland Athletics. Somewhere, everywhere, lovers of the little guy were crying tears of joy for smallball.
The weekend beckons. Be not afraid nor tired from the pressures of the week just commenced. It is past, and the future always holds promise. Take a break. Reflect. Enjoy life rather than cursing your lot. The weekend will last but a short time. In the grand pantheon of history, your life matters little as well. Don't even think about it. Monday will come sooner than most of us will like.
Dow 13,610.15, +34.79(0.26%)
NASDAQ 3,136.19, -13.27 (0.42%)
S&P 500 1,460.93, -0.47 (0.03%)
NYSE Composite 8,384.07, +7.73(0.09%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,611,767,130
NYSE Volume 3,177,711,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2837-2618
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 468-40 (really)
WTI crude oil: 89.88, -1.83
Gold: 1,780.80, -15.70
Silver: 34.57, -0.529
It slices to the heart like a butcher's knife through a sheave of pork... or chicken, appropriate, for the occasional sarcastic remark, refrained from by those with more sense than the norm.
Today's post, Reliability, Persistence and Consistency, was supposed to have been written yesterday. So much for prescience and the timeliness of a message not delivered.
As the matter may be, the trio go together well. While consistency may or may not inspire a reliable nature, so too persistence can be the godfather of both. In the end, the verbiage required for an adequate discussion of the value of virtuousness is far too great to be expensed on a Friday afternoon. Better to leave things unsaid than say them wrongly, even as the wrongs of others may force the hand into parody, mirth or an occasional lilting melodrama.
As for the markets, so much nothing about nothing much. The greatly-anticipated non-farm payroll report for September left much to be desired on both the bullish and bearish sides of the equation. The actual number of 114,000 net job gain was so close to all official and unofficial estimates as to be nothing more than a hiccup, though traders made the best of it, sending stocks rocketing at the open and trading them down throughout the session and into the close.
A great deal has been and will be made of the unemployment rate flopping to 7.8%. It's pure rubbish, concocted from flimsy data with maximum massage President Oblahblah will feel a s rush of relief. Since FDR, no president has won re-election with an official unemployment rate over 8.0 percent. It's a winning number for a second term. What utter nonsense, because, if the truth be known, the comparison to FDR is apt, so the chances are good that Obama could be re-elected with an unemployment rate of 10 or 15 percent, such is the economic condition of the nation.
May decimal point profits and losses were made by those who find day-trading a pleasurable occupation. For the rest of us, it didn't really matter, much like Wednesday night's Presidential Debate, an over-flouted fiasco of sound that greatly interfered with the finale of the baseball season, which, notably, was without great tension and tumult, except, of course, for fans of the Oakland Athletics. Somewhere, everywhere, lovers of the little guy were crying tears of joy for smallball.
The weekend beckons. Be not afraid nor tired from the pressures of the week just commenced. It is past, and the future always holds promise. Take a break. Reflect. Enjoy life rather than cursing your lot. The weekend will last but a short time. In the grand pantheon of history, your life matters little as well. Don't even think about it. Monday will come sooner than most of us will like.
Dow 13,610.15, +34.79(0.26%)
NASDAQ 3,136.19, -13.27 (0.42%)
S&P 500 1,460.93, -0.47 (0.03%)
NYSE Composite 8,384.07, +7.73(0.09%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,611,767,130
NYSE Volume 3,177,711,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2837-2618
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 468-40 (really)
WTI crude oil: 89.88, -1.83
Gold: 1,780.80, -15.70
Silver: 34.57, -0.529
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
Like Emotions, Stocks Run the Full Gamut
There's good karma and bad karma, and there seems to be no shortage of either on Wall Street lately.
The best advice concerning the essence of bad karma is to quickly depart, a dictum taken to heart by investors with losing positions, of which there are currently some, though not an overwhelming number.
While the averages have done little of late to inspire either the bulls or the bears, individual stocks have been doing cartwheels and flips, like Kraft did today in a singular reprise of the flash crash (though to the upside), or like Hewlett-Packard to the downside.
Through it all, it's an emotional game played over emotionless bits of data and what used to be paper certificates. While it may be profitable to some, only those willing and able to suffer long periods of fallow may eventually come away with significant gains. Stocks, even though many Americans unwittingly own them through 401k or other investment vehicles, are a risky lot, not for the feint of heart.
Today's action was choppy, mostly positive, but moreso in the morning than in the afternoon, when the Dow slipped briefly into negative territory and the S&P, NASDAQ and NYSE Composite hit the lows of the day. As usual, low volume was prevalent, economic data uninspiring and stocks rebounded in the final hour.
It's like waiting for a hammer or second shoe to drop, the endless ticking, the tickling teases, the unending speculation running through the mind. What if? What, then?
The best news to millions of motorists was today's precipitous drop in the price of oil, which was surely bad news for certain speculators.
As in sports, or love, or simple competition, there are winners and there are losers. Unlike Nature, which makes choices based on long-standing natural dictums, the rules of stocks are man-made, and subject to frequent reconsideration, recalculation and remorse.
Nature gives to all, takes from one and gives to another. It's a zero-sum game through the pantheon of ages. Stocks are different. One must buy into risk and losses and gains go to those in the right positions.
Most of us, in our heart of hearts, would probably choose nature over stocks, but we're either too dumb, numb or indoctrinated to make such a wise, but simple choice.
Perhaps in another time, a different place, the crush of humanity would make the wise choice. For now, we have what we have, and it is not very pleasing.
Finally, for those having trouble finding full range of human emotions in these hectic, helter-skelter times, or just suffering an overload of the negative ones, this classic from Nat King Cole:
Dow 13,494.61, +12.25 (0.09%)
NASDAQ 3,135.23, +15.19 (0.49%)
S&P 500 1,450.99, +5.24 (0.36%)
NYSE Composite 8,297.50, +2.39 (0.03%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,683,303,875
NYSE Volume 3,486,346,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2643-2824
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 246-46
WTI crude oil: 88.14, -3.75
Gold: 1,779.80, +4.20
Silver: 34.69, +0.021
The best advice concerning the essence of bad karma is to quickly depart, a dictum taken to heart by investors with losing positions, of which there are currently some, though not an overwhelming number.
While the averages have done little of late to inspire either the bulls or the bears, individual stocks have been doing cartwheels and flips, like Kraft did today in a singular reprise of the flash crash (though to the upside), or like Hewlett-Packard to the downside.
Through it all, it's an emotional game played over emotionless bits of data and what used to be paper certificates. While it may be profitable to some, only those willing and able to suffer long periods of fallow may eventually come away with significant gains. Stocks, even though many Americans unwittingly own them through 401k or other investment vehicles, are a risky lot, not for the feint of heart.
Today's action was choppy, mostly positive, but moreso in the morning than in the afternoon, when the Dow slipped briefly into negative territory and the S&P, NASDAQ and NYSE Composite hit the lows of the day. As usual, low volume was prevalent, economic data uninspiring and stocks rebounded in the final hour.
It's like waiting for a hammer or second shoe to drop, the endless ticking, the tickling teases, the unending speculation running through the mind. What if? What, then?
The best news to millions of motorists was today's precipitous drop in the price of oil, which was surely bad news for certain speculators.
As in sports, or love, or simple competition, there are winners and there are losers. Unlike Nature, which makes choices based on long-standing natural dictums, the rules of stocks are man-made, and subject to frequent reconsideration, recalculation and remorse.
Nature gives to all, takes from one and gives to another. It's a zero-sum game through the pantheon of ages. Stocks are different. One must buy into risk and losses and gains go to those in the right positions.
Most of us, in our heart of hearts, would probably choose nature over stocks, but we're either too dumb, numb or indoctrinated to make such a wise, but simple choice.
Perhaps in another time, a different place, the crush of humanity would make the wise choice. For now, we have what we have, and it is not very pleasing.
Finally, for those having trouble finding full range of human emotions in these hectic, helter-skelter times, or just suffering an overload of the negative ones, this classic from Nat King Cole:
Dow 13,494.61, +12.25 (0.09%)
NASDAQ 3,135.23, +15.19 (0.49%)
S&P 500 1,450.99, +5.24 (0.36%)
NYSE Composite 8,297.50, +2.39 (0.03%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,683,303,875
NYSE Volume 3,486,346,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2643-2824
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 246-46
WTI crude oil: 88.14, -3.75
Gold: 1,779.80, +4.20
Silver: 34.69, +0.021
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
Moody Market Seeks Direction; Farm Notes: Keeping Good Faith
Wandering aimlessly through the session, US indices could not decide to rise or fall on Tuesday, ending the session in split fashion.
Gaining in the morning and finally relenting by midday, stocks hit their lows of the session between 2:00 and 3:00 pm EDT, but gathered momentum into the close, paring losses and, in most cases, turning slightly positive.
The Dow was the only index to suffer a loss, a sharp reversal from Monday, upon which the Industrials held the best percentage gain among the major indices.
Volume was fairly anemic, though that's nothing unusual, and while many are calling the recent moves a "stealth rally" the effects of monetary policy, particularly the Fed's recently-announced purchase of some $80 billion per month in MBS for an unspecified period (AKA QEternity) have been felt, possibly having been already priced into stocks, some of which continue to trade at nose-bleed levels, the past few weeks of have been anything other than a secret and almost certainly not a rally.
Since QEternity was announced as policy on September 13, the major indices have been substantially flat.
Of course, this being October and a presidential election year, all of this could change if the market suddenly finds a catalyst for a move in either direction. On the other hand, the market ostensibly controlled by a small number of "strong hands," listlessness and directionless trading could be continued through the election and beyond. As the brokerage commercials are quick to point out, stocks cary risk.
Farming Note: In the rural outliers where corn and chickens are more important than stocks and bonds, a person's word is generally regarded as oath, at least until it is found to be untrue.
It's not a good idea to make promises and plans with potential partners or acquaintances only to dummy up some feeble excuse whereby to break an agreement. Word spreads quickly in farm country about one's character and eventually, those whose word is found not to be trustworthy, soon find themselves cast away, a pariah of the community.
Besides being the golden rule to "do unto others as you would have them do unto you," not keeping good faith ruins friendships, destroys one's self-confidence and generally puts one at odds with Mother Nature herself, a condition reserved only for the truly wicked and those who would scheme against one's fellow man or woman in pursuit of one's own fortune.
Rain may fall when unwanted, drought may starve crops at other times, but only the fruitlessness of one's own hand can cause one's own demise. The harmed party or parties may seek lawful restitution if one's word is a written contract, though more often the result is that the harmed party finds a better deal with a competitor, and the perpetrator of deceit is brought down by guilt and shame.
Dow 13,482.36, -32.75 (0.24%)
NASDAQ 3,120.04, +6.51 (0.21%)
S&P 500 1,445.75, +1.26 (0.09%)
NYSE Compos... 8,295.11, +10.74 (0.13%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,617,743,250
NYSE Volume 3,275,690,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2859-2592
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 247-44
WTI crude oil: 91.89, -0.59
Gold: 1,775.60, -7.70
Silver: 34.67, -0.283
Gaining in the morning and finally relenting by midday, stocks hit their lows of the session between 2:00 and 3:00 pm EDT, but gathered momentum into the close, paring losses and, in most cases, turning slightly positive.
The Dow was the only index to suffer a loss, a sharp reversal from Monday, upon which the Industrials held the best percentage gain among the major indices.
Volume was fairly anemic, though that's nothing unusual, and while many are calling the recent moves a "stealth rally" the effects of monetary policy, particularly the Fed's recently-announced purchase of some $80 billion per month in MBS for an unspecified period (AKA QEternity) have been felt, possibly having been already priced into stocks, some of which continue to trade at nose-bleed levels, the past few weeks of have been anything other than a secret and almost certainly not a rally.
Since QEternity was announced as policy on September 13, the major indices have been substantially flat.
Of course, this being October and a presidential election year, all of this could change if the market suddenly finds a catalyst for a move in either direction. On the other hand, the market ostensibly controlled by a small number of "strong hands," listlessness and directionless trading could be continued through the election and beyond. As the brokerage commercials are quick to point out, stocks cary risk.
Farming Note: In the rural outliers where corn and chickens are more important than stocks and bonds, a person's word is generally regarded as oath, at least until it is found to be untrue.
It's not a good idea to make promises and plans with potential partners or acquaintances only to dummy up some feeble excuse whereby to break an agreement. Word spreads quickly in farm country about one's character and eventually, those whose word is found not to be trustworthy, soon find themselves cast away, a pariah of the community.
Besides being the golden rule to "do unto others as you would have them do unto you," not keeping good faith ruins friendships, destroys one's self-confidence and generally puts one at odds with Mother Nature herself, a condition reserved only for the truly wicked and those who would scheme against one's fellow man or woman in pursuit of one's own fortune.
Rain may fall when unwanted, drought may starve crops at other times, but only the fruitlessness of one's own hand can cause one's own demise. The harmed party or parties may seek lawful restitution if one's word is a written contract, though more often the result is that the harmed party finds a better deal with a competitor, and the perpetrator of deceit is brought down by guilt and shame.
Dow 13,482.36, -32.75 (0.24%)
NASDAQ 3,120.04, +6.51 (0.21%)
S&P 500 1,445.75, +1.26 (0.09%)
NYSE Compos... 8,295.11, +10.74 (0.13%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,617,743,250
NYSE Volume 3,275,690,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2859-2592
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 247-44
WTI crude oil: 91.89, -0.59
Gold: 1,775.60, -7.70
Silver: 34.67, -0.283
Monday, October 1, 2012
Stocks Open 4th Quarter with Squeamish Gains; Are Chestnuts Better as Investments?
First day of the quarter, so, considering all the rampant money-printing, stock had better show gains on the first day of the quarter, though, at the end of the day, the gains were marginal, except for the safety play on the Dow, which was the leading index by percentage.
Consider chestnuts. They never go up, but always fall from trees, encased in prickly husks to protect the fruits from predators, uninvited guests, birds and insects.
In our neck of the woods, chestnuts are ripe and ready for eating, falling from the trees like free gold from the sky. Makes one almost believe there's a God, or gods, watching over the planet.
Think about fruit and nut trees as opposed to stocks and bonds. They require little effort and return an annual dividend, which, unlike paper assets, can be eaten if need be. And, with age, the returns multiply.
Dow 13,515.11, +77.98(0.58%)
NASDAQ 3,113.53, +2.70 (0.09%)
S&P 500 1,444.49, +3.82(0.27%)
NYSE Composite 8,284.36, +33.36(0.40%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,761,352,630
NYSE Volume 3,478,999,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3280-2246
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 346-41
WTI crude oil: 92.48, +0.29
Gold: 1,783.30, +9.40
Silver: 34.95, +0.38
Consider chestnuts. They never go up, but always fall from trees, encased in prickly husks to protect the fruits from predators, uninvited guests, birds and insects.
In our neck of the woods, chestnuts are ripe and ready for eating, falling from the trees like free gold from the sky. Makes one almost believe there's a God, or gods, watching over the planet.
Think about fruit and nut trees as opposed to stocks and bonds. They require little effort and return an annual dividend, which, unlike paper assets, can be eaten if need be. And, with age, the returns multiply.
Dow 13,515.11, +77.98(0.58%)
NASDAQ 3,113.53, +2.70 (0.09%)
S&P 500 1,444.49, +3.82(0.27%)
NYSE Composite 8,284.36, +33.36(0.40%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,761,352,630
NYSE Volume 3,478,999,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3280-2246
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 346-41
WTI crude oil: 92.48, +0.29
Gold: 1,783.30, +9.40
Silver: 34.95, +0.38
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