Friday, October 4, 2013

Government Shutdown Day 4: Wal Street Puts on Happy Face

Why bother?

If Wall Street is going to bid up equities and sell off bonds, as it did today, when the government is at least partially shut down (and completely dysfunctional) then what is the point of even trying to explain all this nonsense.

Get your money (federal reserve notes: actually debt instruments) out of banks and into your own hands, buy some gold or silver if you haven't lately, gas up, buy lots of non-perishable food, get firewood ready, and hunker down.

The storm is coming and the elitists in finance and government don't want you to know about it.

After all, the CEOs of major banks were at the White House the other day and these banks are increasing the amount of cash in ATM machines, anticipating such a run, so you don't want to be shut out when the magic money machine runs out of cash, do you?

With the government intent upon remaining somewhat closed up, the debt ceiling approaching in a hurry and the morons on CNBC chanting, "this is a great buying opportunity," can a nationwide bank holiday be far behind?

One wonders whether PayPal will still work. In the meantime, we're taking the rest of the day off to polish our gold, silver and guns and, oh, yeah, withdraw all our money from the bank. Don't want to leave it all sitting there collecting dust over the weekend. Now, if it were collecting interest, maybe that would be different.

It's the American way, after all.

And, just in case you haven't been paying attention, today's trading volume was among the lowest of the year.

This just isn't good, folks.

Don't worry. Carry on.

Dow 15,072.58, +76.10 (0.51%)
Nasdaq 3,807.75, +33.41 (0.89%)
S&P 500 1,690.50, +11.84 (0.71%)
10-Yr Bond 2.65%, +0.05
NYSE Volume 2,793,792,500
Nasdaq Volume 1,518,519,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3738-1824
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 273-51
WTI crude oil: 103.84, +0.53
Gold: 1,309.90, -7.70
Silver: 21.75, -0.034

Thursday, October 3, 2013

Government Shutdown Day 3: Wall Street Still Doesn't Get It

As the federal government shutdown slid into its third day, evidence that people are beginning to get a little nervous over not only the continuing budget/continuing resolution/ObamaCare impasse, but also with the looming deadline on the debt ceiling, has begun to emerge.

Beginning with Warren Buffet's declaration this morning on CNBC, that the debt ceiling issue was nothing worrisome (meaning: he's really concerned and selling select shares of select companies), word around Wall Street and in Washington continued to forecast a longer and longer government shutdown, possibly extending through two weeks.

The problem is that the politicians have backed themselves into corners from which they cannot escape, especially the president, who steadfastly is sticking with his pledge that he won't negotiate over ObamaCare.

The Republicans and Democrats will not move from their well-staked-out positions, so America suffers.

Here's hoping that they forget how to start it back up again.

Consequently, stocks took a hit for the second straight session; bonds caught a bit of a bid.

Somewhat of a correction from yesterday's post, where Money Daily stated the government was losing $100 million a day for each day of the shutdown. Make that, more like $300,000. As for productivity, well, it's government work, so it's actually not productive at all.

Dow 14,996.48, -136.66 (0.90%)
Nasdaq 3,774.34, -40.68 (1.07%)
S&P 500 1,678.66, -15.21 (0.90%)
10-Yr Note 2.61%, -0.02
NYSE Volume 3,224,199,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,825,629,875
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1310-4257
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 217-63
WTI crude oil: 103.31, -0.79
Gold: 1,317.60, -3.10
Silver: 21.79, -0.111

Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Government Shutdown Day 2: A Little More of a Serious Mood

Yesterday, Money Daily closed its post with the thought that bad things happen when people are complacent.

Today, some of those bad things may have already begun and the complacency of yesterday has turned to concern, today.

Over the previous weekend and into Monday and Tuesday, conventional thinking (the kind that usually amounts to being dead, 100% incorrect) was that the shutdown would last a day or two. Today, there's a growing consensus that the US government shutdown will linger at least until the end of this week, probably through next week and quite possibly meld right into the debt ceiling deadline of October 17, as Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has pegged that date at which time the US will have to start picking and choosing which bills to pay, emergency measures exhausted.

It's estimated that the US economy is losing $100 million per day for each day the government shutdown - partial as it may be - continues. There's another school of thought that believes the number is higher and the cumulative effect will bring the total to much more damage than $100 million a day, as the prolonged furloughs of non-essential government employees drags on and uncertainty over the economy in general grows deeper, mistrust of the government extends and decision begin to be made with the thought of a govern-less world a possibility.

Businesses will become more and more reluctant to spend, individuals will be frightened (which is probably the intention of this entire charade, anyhow), systems will begin to break down and the fabric of society will unravel even further than it has over the last five years of crisis management.

It appears that the politicians are steadfast in their beliefs and unbudging, so this could get a bit more serious every day.

Hang on to cash, gold, silver, gasoline, extra stores of food, water and shelter.

Good luck. (There may be a bank holiday coming your way.)

Dow 15,133.14, -58.56 (0.39%)
Nasdaq 3,815.02, -2.96 (0.08%)
S&P 500 1,693.87, -1.13 (0.07%)
10-Yr Note 2.63%, -0.02
NYSE Volume 3,173,658,500
Nasdaq Volume 1,710,665,875
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2314-3232
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 280-55
WTI crude oil: 104.10, +2.06
Gold: 1,320.70, +34.60
Silver: 21.90, +0.722

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Government Shutdown Day One: Who Cares?

Believing that the federal government shutdown - which began at 12:00:01 EDT Tuesday - would have no ill effects on the economy in general or stocks in particular, investors piled into high-risk assets, with the NASDAQ marking one of its best daily gains of the year.

Alternatively and somewhat counter-intuitively, precious metals sold off dramatically, with gold and silver monkey-hammered back down in an effort by the controlling cartel of central bankers to assure the world that all was safe, despite the globe's biggest and most important economy beset by problems stemming from its politicians.

The overall tone from the pols in the nation's capital is so unambiguously passe as to create some doubt that the impasse over the continuing resolution and the poorly-executed launch of state-by-state health insurance marketplaces for ObamaCare are anything but passing glitches that will soon be amended, such as Wall Street would like to believe.

However, every day that the government is shut down creates less-favorable conditions for the continued success of the world's reserve currency, the US Dollar, which fell modestly, according to the Dollar Index (DXY). Confidence in the leadership in Washington has hit an all-time low, not just from the general population but in foreign capitals as well.

Theatrics aside, Republicans and Democrats appear very far apart ideologically, though the perception one gets from idea leaders in the media is that the shutdown will last only a very few days, which is somewhat hard to believe, considering that the two sides aren't even communicating with each other, everybody in Washington seemingly on an unexpected holiday.

This farce of politics and money will not end well for those in power. The American public has had just about enough from Washington politicians, whose hubris knows no bounds and who operate without any sense of decency, wishing only to score political points in order to cripple the opposition.

With any luck, the politicians will not find a way out of the morass of deceit and despair they have wrought. And now, the countdown to the upcoming debt ceiling deadline can begin. October 17, the day upon which the government will supposedly run out of money, is not far off.

When people become complacent, trouble usually comes looking.

Dow 15,191.70, +62.03 (0.41%)
Nasdaq 3,817.98, +46.50 (1.23%)
S&P 500 1,695.00, +13.45 (0.80%)
10-Yr Bond 2.65%, +0.03
NYSE Volume 3,181,675,250
Nasdaq Volume 1,749,596,125
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3998-1566
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 416-41
WTI crude oil: 102.04, -0.29
Gold: 1,286.10, -40.90
Silver: 21.18, -0.533

Front-running the Government Shutdown... from Behind

In keeping with the spirit of the day, the staff and writers of Money Daily took most of Monday off, but will be back with a better-than-bare-bones edition on Tuesday, probably.

Since the government shutdown of all "non-essential" services (and there you have it in a nutshell, if some government services are non-essential, why have them at all? A good place to start cutting.) is part farce and part fantasy, we shall endeavor to not overly satirize the proceedings.

Mail will still be delivered, planes will fly (and land, we hope), and welfare checks and food stamps will continue to supply the Free Sh-T Army.

Nothing much will change in any large way, unless the shutdown lasts for more than a few weeks and bumps up against the semi-artificial deadline set by Treasury Secretary Jack Lew of October 17, the date at which the government will run out of money and not be able to borrow more.

Then it may be time to break out the MREs and bottled water.

Monday's Results (pre-shutdown)
Dow 15,129.67, -128.57 (0.84%)
Nasdaq 3,771.48, -10.12 (0.27%)
S&P 500 1,681.55, -10.20 (0.60%)
10-Yr Bond 2.6150%, -0.0040
WTI crude oil: 102.33, -0.54
Gold: 1,327.00, -12.20
Silver: 21.71, -0.123