Believe it or not, we're 3/4 through the year and with that Wall Street staged a rally Friday just to keep with the notion that the economy is at least strong enough (and well enough supported by the Federal Reserve) to warrant the buying of stocks with which to dress up tha many portfolios managed by multi-billion dollar funds.
Friday's economic data included numbers on personal income (up 0.2%), personal spending (flat... oops), core PCE prices (up 0.2%), Chicago PMI (54.2, ahead of forecasts) and the University of Michigan survey on consumer sentiment (91.2).
All right, then, everybody's content, including the Fed, which did not raise rates and won't until Decemebr at the earliest, if at all.
In this sweet spot economy, it's a numbers game and a day-trader's paradise. There's really no serious investment going on, just reshuffling of the deck of S&P 500 stocks to own.
The week was essentially flat, marginally to the upside, as the major averages just bounced between winning and losing all week long.
As Country Joe and the Fish might have said, "Whoopie! We're all gonna die."
Friday's Flash:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,308.15, +164.70 (0.91%)
NASDAQ
5,312.00, +42.85 (0.81%)
S&P 500
2,168.27, +17.14 (0.80%)
NYSE Composite
10,721.74, +78.22 (0.73%)
For the Week ended September 30:
Dow: +46.70 (+0.26%)
NASDAQ: +6.25 (+0.12%)
S&P 500: +3.58 (+0.17%)
NYSE Composite: +3.75 (+0.03%)
Sunday, October 2, 2016
Thursday, September 29, 2016
Stocks Slip In Afternoon Trading; Where's The Window Dressing?
Stocks continued their up-and-down action on Thursday, posting one of the larger losses of the season, something that's becoming more and more commonplace as the election nears.
Perhaps investors and speculators are playing a game of chicken, day-trading on quick profits (a likely scenario), or perhaps more are coming to the realization that all is not well in the US or global economy and shocks such as experienced by the recent Brexit vote could contribute to more disorder.
The Commerce Department today announced the third and final estimate for second quarter GDP, a disappointing 1.4%, another reminder that the economy is not picking up any steam and may be stuck in a semi-permanent state of stagnation and denial, with outright deflation lurking at every turn.
The reality of the situation is that Americans seem fairly content with the way things are economically, at least on the surface. However, good-paying, long-lasting jobs and careers are harder and harder to come by and what used to be fixed costs, such as utility bills, property taxes, and other fees for services (think health care) continue to ratchet higher in cost on an annual basis.
Also of concern are diminishing corporate profits, which have been heading south for the better part of two years. It's simply more difficult in a tight economy to wring out better and higher EPS and bottom line profits.
Market analysis being a somewhat difficult and thankless task, those are at least some of the potential catalysts for today's declines on the major indices. Tomorrow being the final day of the month and the quarter, one should be looking for "window dressing," wherein fund managers buy up stocks seemingly in favor to add to the portfolio and prospectus. Oddly enough, we may be witnessing window shading instead, as fund managers shed stocks that are under-performing, currently about 65% of the market.
With only a few key stocks keeping the averages afloat, the time for a major pullback has probably long past, since the Fed continues to prop up the market with its easy money.
Thursday Tumble:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,143.45, -195.79 (-1.07%)
NASDAQ
5,269.15, -49.39 (-0.93%)
S&P 500
2,151.13, -20.24 (-0.93%)
NYSE Composite
10,643.48, -109.97 (-1.02%)
Perhaps investors and speculators are playing a game of chicken, day-trading on quick profits (a likely scenario), or perhaps more are coming to the realization that all is not well in the US or global economy and shocks such as experienced by the recent Brexit vote could contribute to more disorder.
The Commerce Department today announced the third and final estimate for second quarter GDP, a disappointing 1.4%, another reminder that the economy is not picking up any steam and may be stuck in a semi-permanent state of stagnation and denial, with outright deflation lurking at every turn.
The reality of the situation is that Americans seem fairly content with the way things are economically, at least on the surface. However, good-paying, long-lasting jobs and careers are harder and harder to come by and what used to be fixed costs, such as utility bills, property taxes, and other fees for services (think health care) continue to ratchet higher in cost on an annual basis.
Also of concern are diminishing corporate profits, which have been heading south for the better part of two years. It's simply more difficult in a tight economy to wring out better and higher EPS and bottom line profits.
Market analysis being a somewhat difficult and thankless task, those are at least some of the potential catalysts for today's declines on the major indices. Tomorrow being the final day of the month and the quarter, one should be looking for "window dressing," wherein fund managers buy up stocks seemingly in favor to add to the portfolio and prospectus. Oddly enough, we may be witnessing window shading instead, as fund managers shed stocks that are under-performing, currently about 65% of the market.
With only a few key stocks keeping the averages afloat, the time for a major pullback has probably long past, since the Fed continues to prop up the market with its easy money.
Thursday Tumble:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,143.45, -195.79 (-1.07%)
NASDAQ
5,269.15, -49.39 (-0.93%)
S&P 500
2,151.13, -20.24 (-0.93%)
NYSE Composite
10,643.48, -109.97 (-1.02%)
Tuesday, September 27, 2016
Presidential Debate Past; Stocks Return To Normal
With the results of Monday night's presidential debate clearly a mainstream victory for Hillary Clinton (according to the mainstream media, naturally), investors got the "all clear" Tuesday morning and immediately set about erasing the previous day's losses to a large extent.
There was nothing of note in the way of financial news, so the political news would have to suffice, and it apparently did.
With nothing now standing in the way of a Hillary Clinton victory in the November election, the smug Wall Street crowd felt good enough to boost stock prices for the average investor, despite Donald Trump's warning that the Fed was blowing bubbles and playing politics. Maybe the election doesn't matter that much.
All's well.
Tuesday's Shuffle
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,228.30, +133.47 (0.74%)
NASDAQ
5,305.71, +48.22 (0.92%)
S&P 500
2,159.93, +13.83 (0.64%)
NYSE Composite
10,657.18, +32.30 (0.30%)
There was nothing of note in the way of financial news, so the political news would have to suffice, and it apparently did.
With nothing now standing in the way of a Hillary Clinton victory in the November election, the smug Wall Street crowd felt good enough to boost stock prices for the average investor, despite Donald Trump's warning that the Fed was blowing bubbles and playing politics. Maybe the election doesn't matter that much.
All's well.
Tuesday's Shuffle
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,228.30, +133.47 (0.74%)
NASDAQ
5,305.71, +48.22 (0.92%)
S&P 500
2,159.93, +13.83 (0.64%)
NYSE Composite
10,657.18, +32.30 (0.30%)
Monday, September 26, 2016
Stocks Slide Again; Is Market Anticipating A Trump Victory Or Government Shutdown?
Stocks fell for the second straight session, extending losses from Friday to open the new week.
Causes for the two-day selling spree are questionable, but Monday's New Home Sales release by the Commerce Department may be a good place to start. After surging in July, new home sales fell 7.6% nationally, following a July surge.
Perhaps even more troubling is that the median price of a new home sold in August was down 3.1% from July and down 5.3% from a year earlier.
That's a real problem because the home-selling business has been anything but brisk, though price increases were a good sign for the Federal Reserve, which is dying to find any hint of inflation (they love it; consumers hate it). Thus, if new homes are selling at a discount from the year earlier, one could probably safely assume that existing homes are seeing price pressure to the downside as well.
Extrapolating from what is normally regarded as the biggest single purchase in a person's life, the cost of a home (or rent) going lower is going to put the brakes on inflation in a very large way, perhaps in a way that many people looking to sell are not going to appreciate. Recall that the last housing bust was a scant eight years ago. There are still underwater homeowners in various stages of despair, though the numbers have eased significantly over the years.
A downturn in housing prices, while great for new buyers, are overall anathema for the economy. How that squares with Wall Street's ongoing love-hate affair with the Fed and the call for higher interest rates is as yet unknown, but, after last week's stall on raising rates there's the distinct possibility that the Fed has called the market's bluff for the final time.
A FOMC meeting is sceduled for the first week in November, just prior to the election, so there's almost zero probability that the Fed would raise rates at that point, upsetting not just the market but the political class as well. That leaves December as the last chance for the Fed to raise rates, and looking back at their last December hike (a market disaster), there's some thinking that the almighty Fed may not want to repeat that particular episode.
One other potentiality for the sudden downturn in stocks is that inside money is looking seriously at a Donald Trump victory in November. Tonight's first debate (of three) between the Donald and Hillary Clinton may be a watershed moment in US political history. The most recent polls have the two candidates nearly even, as Mr. Trump has eviscerated Clinton's large post-convention lead, especially in some key battleground states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
Why large investors may be nervous about a Trump victory is the gnawing, belly-aching suspicion that Trump may be good for small business but bad for big business. His platform is not well-formed, but, he has used the words "crony capitalism" to his populist advantage. It's code for "no more business as usual" which means many of the larger firms (think S&P 500) that have benefited from decades of competition-crushing regulations and legislation may be looking at a more level playing field which puts small businesses on a better footing, something with which they have no relevant experience. That opens up new possibilities that favor smaller competitors taking market share from larger ones, to the ultimate detriment of the US stock market, but probably to the betterment of the overall economy.
Not withstanding any other reasons to fear a Trump presidency, the elitists on Wall Street and in the nation's capitol simply do not know what to expect. That's why they're the status quo and Donald Trump spells big danger.
Another rationale for a market downturn is the continuing drama over keeping the federal government operating past this coming Friday. The president and congress are doing their usual dance of death surrounding a continuing resolution rater than an actual budget to avoid a government shutdown and the Friday deadline is looming large.
Lastly, this being the last week of September, maybe the marketeers are gearing up for an October to remember, as has occurred on numerous occasions in the past. Market crashes and corrections always seem to pop up in the harvest month, and this one offers even more uncertainty than usual.
Blue Monday:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,094.83, -166.62 (-0.91%)
NASDAQ
5,257.49, -48.26 (-0.91%)
S&P 500
2,146.10, -18.59 (-0.86%)
NYSE Composite
10,624.88, -93.11 (-0.87%)
Causes for the two-day selling spree are questionable, but Monday's New Home Sales release by the Commerce Department may be a good place to start. After surging in July, new home sales fell 7.6% nationally, following a July surge.
Perhaps even more troubling is that the median price of a new home sold in August was down 3.1% from July and down 5.3% from a year earlier.
That's a real problem because the home-selling business has been anything but brisk, though price increases were a good sign for the Federal Reserve, which is dying to find any hint of inflation (they love it; consumers hate it). Thus, if new homes are selling at a discount from the year earlier, one could probably safely assume that existing homes are seeing price pressure to the downside as well.
Extrapolating from what is normally regarded as the biggest single purchase in a person's life, the cost of a home (or rent) going lower is going to put the brakes on inflation in a very large way, perhaps in a way that many people looking to sell are not going to appreciate. Recall that the last housing bust was a scant eight years ago. There are still underwater homeowners in various stages of despair, though the numbers have eased significantly over the years.
A downturn in housing prices, while great for new buyers, are overall anathema for the economy. How that squares with Wall Street's ongoing love-hate affair with the Fed and the call for higher interest rates is as yet unknown, but, after last week's stall on raising rates there's the distinct possibility that the Fed has called the market's bluff for the final time.
A FOMC meeting is sceduled for the first week in November, just prior to the election, so there's almost zero probability that the Fed would raise rates at that point, upsetting not just the market but the political class as well. That leaves December as the last chance for the Fed to raise rates, and looking back at their last December hike (a market disaster), there's some thinking that the almighty Fed may not want to repeat that particular episode.
One other potentiality for the sudden downturn in stocks is that inside money is looking seriously at a Donald Trump victory in November. Tonight's first debate (of three) between the Donald and Hillary Clinton may be a watershed moment in US political history. The most recent polls have the two candidates nearly even, as Mr. Trump has eviscerated Clinton's large post-convention lead, especially in some key battleground states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
Why large investors may be nervous about a Trump victory is the gnawing, belly-aching suspicion that Trump may be good for small business but bad for big business. His platform is not well-formed, but, he has used the words "crony capitalism" to his populist advantage. It's code for "no more business as usual" which means many of the larger firms (think S&P 500) that have benefited from decades of competition-crushing regulations and legislation may be looking at a more level playing field which puts small businesses on a better footing, something with which they have no relevant experience. That opens up new possibilities that favor smaller competitors taking market share from larger ones, to the ultimate detriment of the US stock market, but probably to the betterment of the overall economy.
Not withstanding any other reasons to fear a Trump presidency, the elitists on Wall Street and in the nation's capitol simply do not know what to expect. That's why they're the status quo and Donald Trump spells big danger.
Another rationale for a market downturn is the continuing drama over keeping the federal government operating past this coming Friday. The president and congress are doing their usual dance of death surrounding a continuing resolution rater than an actual budget to avoid a government shutdown and the Friday deadline is looming large.
Lastly, this being the last week of September, maybe the marketeers are gearing up for an October to remember, as has occurred on numerous occasions in the past. Market crashes and corrections always seem to pop up in the harvest month, and this one offers even more uncertainty than usual.
Blue Monday:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,094.83, -166.62 (-0.91%)
NASDAQ
5,257.49, -48.26 (-0.91%)
S&P 500
2,146.10, -18.59 (-0.86%)
NYSE Composite
10,624.88, -93.11 (-0.87%)
Saturday, September 24, 2016
Fed Holds, Market Stuck; Donald Trump A Viable Alternative
The stage is set for the presidential election and the Fed will try its best to not influence it (that is, unless Hillary Clinton is losing).
At its most recent meeting - which ended this past Wednesday with the usual "no change" announcement - the FOMC decided that there wasn't enough positive economic data to support raising rates, despite record low unemployment according to official sources.
Thise in the know understand that the Fed cannot and will not (the next meeting is scheduled for November 1-2) raise interest rates prior to the election (November 8) because any increase, such as the lonesome one of 0.25% back in December of last year, would cause a market panic and sharp selloff of stocks.
The condition is asinine, akin to preparing a race horse for racing and then continually scratching the nag before the event.
Members of the Fed continue to jawbone about raising rates, which keeps their fragile authority intact. The truth is that they lost control back in 2008, and have done nothing to retain or repair the confidence of the populace, though, due to normalcy bias, everybody keeps using fiat money and going along for the zero interest rate ride for the time being.
These policies cannot last forever, thus it may become fashionable and even predictable to vote for Donald Trump in the upcoming election. Trump is a change agent, one feared in the halls of congress, statehouses and even in the conference rooms of the Fed's Eccles building.
Stocks are overpriced because there is no alternative for many large investors, and that's a danger.
So, get ready for a rocky road ahead. The first presidential debate is Monday, and that event could change the dynamics for November and the immediate future.
Stay tuned and stay liquid.
Friday's Closing Prices:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,261.45, -131.01 (-0.71%)
NASDAQ
5,305.75, -33.78 (-0.63%)
S&P 500
2,164.69, -12.49 (-0.57%)
NYSE Composite
10,717.99, -75.67 (-0.70%)
The week:
Dow: +137.65 (0.76%)
NASDAQ: +61.18 (1.17%)
S&P 500: +25.53 (1.19%)
NYSE Composite: +185.72 (1.76)
At its most recent meeting - which ended this past Wednesday with the usual "no change" announcement - the FOMC decided that there wasn't enough positive economic data to support raising rates, despite record low unemployment according to official sources.
Thise in the know understand that the Fed cannot and will not (the next meeting is scheduled for November 1-2) raise interest rates prior to the election (November 8) because any increase, such as the lonesome one of 0.25% back in December of last year, would cause a market panic and sharp selloff of stocks.
The condition is asinine, akin to preparing a race horse for racing and then continually scratching the nag before the event.
Members of the Fed continue to jawbone about raising rates, which keeps their fragile authority intact. The truth is that they lost control back in 2008, and have done nothing to retain or repair the confidence of the populace, though, due to normalcy bias, everybody keeps using fiat money and going along for the zero interest rate ride for the time being.
These policies cannot last forever, thus it may become fashionable and even predictable to vote for Donald Trump in the upcoming election. Trump is a change agent, one feared in the halls of congress, statehouses and even in the conference rooms of the Fed's Eccles building.
Stocks are overpriced because there is no alternative for many large investors, and that's a danger.
So, get ready for a rocky road ahead. The first presidential debate is Monday, and that event could change the dynamics for November and the immediate future.
Stay tuned and stay liquid.
Friday's Closing Prices:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,261.45, -131.01 (-0.71%)
NASDAQ
5,305.75, -33.78 (-0.63%)
S&P 500
2,164.69, -12.49 (-0.57%)
NYSE Composite
10,717.99, -75.67 (-0.70%)
The week:
Dow: +137.65 (0.76%)
NASDAQ: +61.18 (1.17%)
S&P 500: +25.53 (1.19%)
NYSE Composite: +185.72 (1.76)
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