Showing posts with label AMZN. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AMZN. Show all posts

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Unemployment Up, Durable Orders Slip, But Markets Stable

Just in case anybody thinks that Bernanke's QE2 program isn't working perfectly (in other words, shoveling billions of dollars to the nation's largest banks), a quick recap of today's headlines and the resultant market moves should suffice to argue that US stock markets have permanently divorced themselves from reality.

Initial jobless claims came in at 454,000 in the most recent week. The market was looking for 400,000. Oops! The official reason for the rise from last week's reported 403,000, and the highest number since October was snow. OK, we're officially not buying that.

Durable orders for December declined by 2.5%. Analysts were expecting a gain of 1.5%. After all, Christmas falls in December, and everybody got a Lexus, right?

As tensions mount in Egypt in advance of tomorrow's largest protest to date - led by former IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei - the US State Department has advised president Hosni Mubarak to remain calm, though the days of the strongman leader seem to be numbered. In the aftermath of the Tunesian revolution, Algeria and Yemen, along with Egypt, appear to be on the brink of revolt.

Apparently, this spate of less-than-encouraging news was insufficient for equity investors to seek investments with less risk. Maybe they - or the computers controlling the trading - are standing pat, awaiting the first announcement of 4th quarter GDP tomorrow at 8:30 am. The official estimate is that the US economy grew at a 3.8% annualized rate, after the third quarter came in at 2.6%. Those hoping for a strong GDP number may wish to recall that residential real estate nearly ground to a halt in the 4th quarter, due to the fruadclosure scandal and that's not a big positive. The number ought to be interesting, just to see how far the government will go to convince everyone that the recovery is real and continuing, when the facts say the recession never actually ended and the only place in the country feeling particularly good about things in in lower Manhattan.

Dow 11,989.83, +4.39 (0.04%)
NASDAQ 2,755.28, +15.78 (0.58%)
S&P 500 1,299.54, +2.91 (0.22%)
NYSE Composite 8,207.06, +13.42 (0.16%)


Major indices were all marginally higher on the day, though the psychological barriers at Dow 12,000 and S&P 1300 remained difficult to breach. Both indices briefly advanced into the beyond, but generally flatlined below those levels for the bulk of the session. Internals suggest an unconvinced market sentiment, with 3454 stocks advancing and 2964 declining.

There were 159 new highs and 14 new lows on the NASDAQ, while on the NYSE new highs led new lows, 252-9. Volume was slight, as usual.

NASDAQ Volume 2,033,972,000
NYSE Volume 4,773,436,000


Commodities were mostly beaten down, as NYMEX crude dipped another $1.69, continuing the recent trend, to $85.64. Gold also remained under pressure, dropping another $14.60, to $1,318.40, back to October, 2010 levels. Silver dropped 10 cents, to $27.03, well off the December highs of $31.

The disconnect between the markets and reality is palpable. The wheels came off a long time ago, but the sputtering US economy has yet to be reflected by the Fed-fueled stock markets. Something's got to give, and when it does, it should be big.

After hours, Amazon (AMZN) released 4th quarter earnings and investors were not amused, sending the stock down to 166.74 a loss of 17.71 (-9.60%) at 5:00 pm EDT.

Monday, December 21, 2009

Deals, Upgrades Boost Stocks; NASDAQ Breaks Out

Led by news that Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) will buy retail health products firm Chattem (CHTT) for $1.9 billion and upgrades of key Dow components Intel (INTC) and Alcoa (AA) helped stocks kick off the short Christmas week with a bang.

Stocks soared right off the opening bell and held onto most of their gains through a somewhat listless session, though there was plenty of M&A news to keep participants interested. Besides Alcoa surging nearly 8% at the close, merger mania seems to have overtaken the health care sector, as pharma firms flush with cash seek to expand into the consumer market.

With the US senate voting to suspend debate on the health care bill, the major drug companies seem confident they have wrung the very best deal they could out of their congressional puppets. Many firms in the sector have been up sharply in recent days, including Dow components Merck (MRK) and Pfizer (PFE), considering the reform measure to be nothing more than bluster and Democratic party PR, void of substantive change. Thus, big pharma and health care providers will continue their rapacious plundering of the American people well into the next presidential cycle without a hitch.

Since US politics has been and continues to be largely held hostage by Wall Street, the pharmaceutical companies got whatever they wanted from a compliant Congress, meaning no real reform and no tax changes. It all adds up to business as usual for American medicine - the public pays, and if it can't, taxpayers foot the bill.

Dow 10,414.14, +85.25 (0.83%)
Nasdaq 2,237.66, +25.97 (1.17%)
S&P 500 1,114.05, +11.58 (1.05%)
NYSE Composite 7,147.15, +60.96 (0.86%)


Simple indicators affirmed the upside bias, suggesting further price appreciation for equities as advancing issues trumped decliners, 4503-2061, and new highs beat new lows, 499-94. Even though the dollar was higher against foreign currencies, stocks managed healthy gains, with all ten sectors advancing. Volume was slightly lower than normal, due to the closeness of the holidays, but not so poor as to suggest that traders were completely disinterested.

As the Dow and S&P were churning over ground already harvested, the NASDAQ broke out to new highs, as financial services and technology led the index higher. Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) all posted strong gains.

NYSE Volume 4,531,713,500
Nasdaq Volume 1,837,347,875


The commodity complex was buffeted by the rising greenback. Oil slipped 89 cents, to $72.47. Gold fell dramatically, below the psychological $1100 level, down $15.50, to $1,096.00, in a continuation of the pull-back from all-time highs. Silver responded in like fashion, losing 28 cents, to $17.04.

With just three more days remaining in the shortened week (plus, Thursday will be a half-session), Tuesday's trade is likely to be more tempered as the third and final GDP estimate for the 3rd quarter is released at 8:30 am and existing home sales data for November will be announced at 10:00 am. At the same time on Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) will release new home sales figures for November.

Friday, October 23, 2009

Economy Worries Overshadow Tech Titans

Stocks slid badly on Friday, marring an otherwise upbeat earnings week by ending marginally lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which crashed through the 10,000 mark on Monday, and closed at the high point for 2008, wavered back and forth all week, finally capitulating on Friday, finishing 24 points in the red for the week. Other averages reacted in similar manner, with the NASDAQ losing just more than two points and the S&P 500 dropping 8 points. The NYSE Composite, the broadest measure, was down by 68 points for the 5 days.

Investor skepticism over the health of the economy dimmed the outstanding results from Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT), both of which blew away analyst estimates when reporting 3rd quarter results. Amazon was by far the biggest winner, gaining 25 points, to 118.49, an historic high for the stock, and a one-day gain of nearly 27% for the world's largest internet retailer. Volume on the stock was 9 times the average daily.

Unfortunately, market participants were taking hard-fought gains in other companies amid speculation that the recovery may not be as robust as previously assumed. Underscoring the market sentiment was the massive downside slide on the Dow Jones Transportation Index (^DJT), which slid 137.73 points, a decline of 3.5%.

The major issue upon which many are dwelling is still unemployment, or the lack of new job creation, and the government's abject refusal to offer programs which would stimulate job creation. The halls of congress and the White House have been focused on a partisan health care debate, no doubt a matter of great importance, but paling by comparison to the general welfare of the American people and their need for steady, solid employment.

Talk of a "jobless recovery" has begun to circulate, though even the most ardent proponents of fiscal stimulus have to admit that a recovery without new jobs is really not a recovery at all. There is also growing impatience with the federal government on their handling of the financial crisis and various "socialist" policies, not the least of which is capping executive pay via proclamation from their "pay czar" Kenneth R. Feinberg, who this week proposed 50-90% pay cuts for executives whose companies received TARP funds and have yet to repay.

If there has been one culprit responsible for any slowness in the nascent recovery, the finger can be pointed directly at he White House and congress, whose plodding pace and partisan bickering have been a detriment, rather than a benefit, to the public welfare. With the huge federal government out of the way, the American people and American businesspeople could surely forge a new way forward, but threats of pay cuts and excessive taxation are killing the attitude of everyone from Main Street to Wall Street and from Skid Row to Beverly Hills.

Then again, stocks have been rocketing skyward for some time now, and the market seems to have run considerably out of steam. even though roughly half the companies in the S&P 500 have already reported, the indices haven't budged out of a range from 9950 to 10,100 for more than a week.

Dow 9,972.18, -109.13 (1.08%)
NASDAQ 2,154.47, -10.82 (0.50%)
S&P 500 1,079.60, -13.31 (1.22%)
NYSE Composite 7,066.80, -116.11 (1.62%)


Simple indicators offer a snapshot of the depth and breadth of Friday's decline. Losers hammered winners, 4881-1566, a better than 3-1 ratio, the worst in some time. New highs were 356, to just 54 new lows. Volume was roughly in line with the pace set Tuesday through Thursday.

NYSE Volume 5,506,861,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,476,571,750


Commodity prices continued to retreat from mid-week highs. Oil slipped 69 cents, to $80.50. Gold was off $2.20, to $1,056.40, but silver bucked the trend, gaining 18 cents, to $17.72.

More companies report next week in what will be the busiest week for earnings reports. It's also a busy week for economic reports, highlighted by Thursday's preliminary release of 3rd quarter GDP, which will be a market mover.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Amazon Blows Away Estimates After Huge Up Day

Markets were mixed early, but a day-long rally, helped along by earnings results from key Dow components including AT&T (T), McDonald's (MCD) and others, pushed stocks back near recent highs after yesterday's late-day sell-off.

After the bell, online retailer Amazon (AMZN) blew away estimates for the quarter, posting earnings of 45 cents per share on $199 million profit, far ahead of estimates of 33 cents per share and well ahead of the prior year's 3rd quarter of 27 cents and $118 million in profits.

On a day which witnessed the largest number of S&P companies reporting to date, stocks flew higher and prospects on the back of Amazon's earnings look especially juicy for technology companies. Microsoft, the undisputed world's leader in personal computer operating systems, reports before the bell on Friday.

Dow 10,081.31, +131.95 (1.33%)
Nasdaq 2,165.29, +14.56 (0.68%)
S&P 500 1,092.91, +11.51 (1.06%)
NYSE Composite 7,182.91, +75.70 (1.07%)


Advancing issues, which were beaten down earlier in the day, handily beat decliners, 4142-2301. There were 263 new highs and 43 new lows, both numbers negatively affected by the trading range of the past week, between 9500 and 10,100. Volume was in line with most active days over the past two weeks.

NYSE Volume 5,985,040,500
Nasdaq Volume 2,282,756,500


Commodities were held down after strong recent advances. Oil for December delivery fell 18 cents, to $81.19. Gold was clipped $5.90, to $1,058.60, while silver slid 28 cents, to $17.55.

More earnings are being released after hours and early on Friday. The markets are set to record yet another week of gains, though this week will be rather muted in comparison to others unless markets soar again on the final day of the week.

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Rigged Rally

Any doubt that the US stock markets have been, are being or can be manipulated was put to rest today at precisely 3:00 p.m. Eastern time. It was at that moment that the Dow Jones Industrials climbed an extraordinary 50+ points in just over one minute. There was no news, no report issued that would move the market, only the covert actions by groping, free market fondlers.

Briefing.com called the 3:00 jump a "technical trade," which is a good substitute for "we don't know," and the Fed's Beige Book was released at 2:00, not 3:00, but maybe it took a while to digest.

In any case, the final result was a healthy gain for the Dow, with the other indices tagging along.

Dow 13,784.50 +67.55; NASDAQ 2,648.17 +8.31; S&P 500 1,518.09 +7.05; NYSE Composite 9,930.36 +20.41

Other than the faux late-day rally, it was really a see-saw session with the markets initially buffeted by stellar earnings reports from Amazon (AMZN) and Boeing (BA), then battered by the National Association of Realtors' (NAR) existing Home Sales for June, which came in well below estimates, suggesting that, considering the current malaise in the housing market, those estimates might want to be a little less optimistic going forward.

It was the worst showing for housing in roughly 4 1/2 years, though that in itself should not have been much of a surprise.

Elsewhere, companies were churning out 2nd quarter earnings reports, and some actually weren't all bad.
  • Xerox (X) beat estimates by a penny, but was pounded lower by 1.10 (nearly 6%).

  • Colgate-Palmolive (CL): Excluding restructuring charges, net income in the most recent quarter was $457.5 million, or 84 cents per share. Analysts expected earnings per share of 84 cents.

  • ConocoPhillips (COP) posted income, excluding extraordinary items, of $4.8 billion, or $2.90 a share, compared with $5.2 billion, or $3.09 a share, during the second quarter of 2006. The results were well above the $2.68 analyst expectations.

  • Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX): On the acquisition of rival Phelps Dodge in March and increased metal pricing, net income after paying preferred dividends rose to $1.10 billion, or $2.62 per share, from $367 million, or $1.74 per share, a year ago. Revenue surged to $5.81 billion from $1.43 billion last year. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial were looking for profit of $2.71 per share on revenue of $5.27 billion.
  • GlaxoSmithKline (GSK): Pretax profit was flat at £1.896 billion -- compared with £1.897 billion a year earlier -- and was ahead of analysts' consensus expectations of £1.833 billion. Net profit rose to £1.36 billion from £1.34 billion a year earlier.

  • Apple (AAPL): (After the close) For fiscal 2007 third quarter ended June 30, 2007, posted revenue of $5.41 billion and net quarterly profit of $818 million, or $.92 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $4.37 billion and net quarterly profit of $472 million, or $.54 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter.

The story beyond the headline numbers was in stark contrast. Decliners beat advancing issues by a 3-2 ration, and new lows swamped the market, beating new highs by 630-134 (no, that's not a misprint).

Oil posted huge gains on the NY Mercantile Exchange, with crude up a massive $2.32 to $75.88. So, square those facts and numbers with a nearly 70-point rise on the Dow... really, try it.

Gold was hammered down $11 to $673.80, with silver losing 29 cents to close at $13.15.

More hijinks are in store for certain tomorrow, as new home sales figures for June are released and another 400+ companies roll out earnings reports.

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Bear Claws

How bad was it?

It was in the top five worst performances for the combined indices this year, and likely the third worst showing (at least for the Dow it was). What triggered the Tuesday tempest was poor showings by a multitude of companies reporting second quarter earnings, most notably, McDonald's (MCD) huge miss and a miss by DuPont (DD) prior to the market open and Texas Instrument's (TI) poor showing announced Monday after the close.

Dow 13,716.95 -226.47; NASDAQ 2,639.86 -50.72; S&P 500 1,511.04 -30.53; NYSE Composite 9,909.95 -211.63

Here are just some of the early headlines, which seemed to get worse as the trading session wore on.

IN PLAY: Corn Products reports 2Q07 results; beats by $0.09
DuPont reports flat 2Q earnings
Kimberly-Clark 2Q Profit Beats Outlook
Legg Mason profit climbs 22 percent
Lexmark net profit slips 16 percent
Northrop 2Q profit rises 7%
PepsiCo 2Q Profit Rises 13 Percent

While there were a smattering of positives, they were overwhelmed by more than just a few companies not meeting 2nd quarter estimates.

Declining issues crushed advancers by a 5-1 margin and new lows swamped new highs, 642-162.

Not even bonds, tame, with the 10-year note yielding 4.92%, or oil, down $1.33 to $73.56, could pick up the spirits on Wall Street. The continual unwinding of the sub-prime mortgage blow-up (now spreading into other credit areas) combined with the spate of earnings disappointments led to an all-out rush for the exits.

For those with weak stomachs, stop here, because I'm going to tell you why it's going to get worse the rest of the week.

First, more companies will be releasing earnings reports and some are certain to miss estimates. Investors are in a sour mood already, and they simply don't need any more reasons to sell. Later in the day, US Steel (X) reported a 25% dip in profits from the year ago period. Net income fell to $302 million, or $2.54 per diluted share, for the quarter, from $404 million, or $3.22 per share, during the same period last year. Analysts were looking for earnings of $2.35 per share on $4.05 billion in sales and the stock ended the day up 42 cents at 106.41.

After the close, Amazon (AMZN) booked solid profits. Earnings climbed to $78 million, or 19 cents per share, from $22 million, or 5 cents per share during the same period last year, soundly beating expectations of 16 cents per share.

Eli Lily (LLY) also reported after the close. Excluding charges, adjusted earnings totaled $978.7 million, or 90 cents per share. Analysts had expected 82 cents per share on that basis.

Tomorrow, in addition to the more than 300 companies reporting 2nd quarter earnings, the following report prior to the open:
Colgate-Palmolive (CL), ConocoPhillips (COP), DaimlerChrysler (DCX), Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Xerox (XRX)

After the close:
Apple (AAPL), Pulte Homes (PHM), Symantec (SYMC), Boeing (BA).

Additionally, Existing Home Sales for June will be out at 10:00 am. On Thursday, New Home Sales figures for June and on Friday, the preliminary 2nd quarter GDP estimate.

With those economic reports on the way, traders may have taken an early hiatus, expecting the worse. It's likely to not be as bad as the worst skeptics suspect, but don't look for a quick turnaround - at least not this week.