Showing posts with label BLS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BLS. Show all posts

Sunday, July 10, 2016

SPX Near All-Time Highs On June Jobs Euphoria

On May 20, 2015, the S&P 500 index (SPX) reached an all-time intra-day high of 2,134.72. The following session, May 21, it set a closing record at 2,130.82.

This Friday, the S&P closed at 2,190.90, settling off the day's high of 2,131.71, so, no records were set in the first full trading week of July (when nobody's paying particular attention), but the major indices are now poised to run beyond their previous highs, set more than a year ago.

Thus, the banking and global finance cartel - which is in complete and unbreakable control of all "trading" markets - has waived any consideration that the third-longest equity bull market in the history of US stock markets was coming to an end.

Bears, those sadly depressed members of the pessimism society (this blog included) are never going to be satisfied it seems. Drops on the major indices of 10% or more (corrections) are not tolerated. 20% declines - bear markets by definition - are not open for discussion within the megalithic construct of global central bank monetarism.

Expect new all-time highs on the S&P promptly Monday morning, with the Dow soon to follow (all time highs of 18,351.36 intra-day and 18,312.39 closing, both on May 19, 2015). The NASDAQ has a bit further to travel, having made its all-time closing high of 5,153.97 on June 22, 2015, reaching its zenith two days later with an intra-day value of 5,164.36.

Whether these prices and averages are justified by fundamental measures of valuation is debatable. By many measures stocks are overpriced. The trading prices of some of the more popular stocks - especially those focused in the technology area (Facebook, Google, Amazon, Apple to name a few) - currently trade at nose-bleed valuations.

According to the financial press, what prompted the sudden jerk higher of US stock markets was Friday's non-farm payroll figures from June.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said non-farm payrolls rose to a seasonally adjusted 287K, from 11K in May, that figure revised lower, from 38K.

Analysts had expected U.S. non-farm payrolls to rise 175K last month, so the surprise factor was enormous. Muddying the waters beyond the mystifying May numbers as compared to June - the largest net gain in eight months, is that the BLS numbers are largely massaged, maneuvered, and mangled into whatever pretzel-logical outcome is desired at the moment.

In a word, the BLS numbers are untrustworthy.

David Rosenberg suggests that the month of June did not in fact show a massive gain, but employment actually declined by 119,000 during the month.

When the Household survey is put on the same comparable footing as the payroll series (the payroll and population-concept adjusted number), employment fell 119,000 in June — again calling into question the veracity of the actual payroll report — and is down 517,000 through this span. The six-month trend has dipped below the zero-line and this has happened but two other times during this seven-year expansion.

Here is another article (from February 2016) that breaks down the faulty, misleading methodology employed by the BLS.

David Stockman opines that the monthly BLS survey is mostly noise and needs to be veiwed over longer periods in order to offer convincing trends and that the May and June tallies, taken together, amount to nothing more than statistical numbness.

Effectively, the BLS survey figures move markets as the algos respond entirely to the headlines, which were out-of-the-park awesome in June. The details were more nuanced, but such does not have influence on stocks.

In any case, since, the Brexit vote, central banks and central planners have returned in force to control the narrative, which, in their view, must continue to be nothing but positive.

For an alternative view, look at the response of gold, silver and especially, government bonds, the 10-year note and 30-year bond in particular, both of which continued to make all-time lows this week.

For the week:
Dow: +197.37 (+1.10%)
S&P 500: +26.95 (+1.28%)
NASDAQ: +94.19 (+1.94%)

Friday's Fantasy:
S&P 500: 2,129.90, +32.00 (1.53%)
Dow: 18,146.74, +250.86 (1.40%)
NASDAQ: 4,956.76, +79.95 (1.64%)

Crude Oil 45.12 -0.04% Gold 1,367.40 +0.39% EUR/USD 1.1051 -0.09% 10-Yr Bond 1.37 -1.51% Corn 361.25 +3.66% Copper 2.12 +0.02% Silver 20.35 +2.58% Natural Gas 2.82 +1.44% Russell 2000 1,177.36 +2.40% VIX 13.20 -10.57% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.2952 +0.30% USD/JPY 100.4600 -0.27%

Saturday, June 4, 2016

Weak Jobs Number; Worst In Six Years Rattles Market

At the end of the day, the weakest jobs number since 2010 didn't deter stock traders much, though the damage was more severe earlier in the session, another carbon copy of the previous two, with a deep drop at the open, followed by relentless pumping towards the positive.

While Friday's effort left much to be desired, it has now become all-too-obvious that there is no such thing as a fair and open market in US stocks, especially in the face of negative economic data. The federal government and agents of the Fed are adamant about painting a rosy picture of the economy, even though the metrics - especially manufacturing and non-farm payrolls this week - are using a strikingly different palette.

The 38,000 new jobs created in May, as reported by the BLS, was miles below the consensus estimate of 164,000 and gives the Fed much more thinking material as concerns a rate hike, which now appears to be off the table for June, at the very least.

What the number suggests is that despite all the howls from the president, his advisors and others on TV, the economy is in a precarious state, not one in which overheating is even a remote possibility. This would be no time to raise interest rates.

While stocks held their own during a tumultuous week, Friday saw gold and silver rally back, perhaps an indication that all is really not well in the kingdom of Obama.

On The Week:
Dow: -66.16, (-0.37%)
S&P 500: +0.07 (0.00)
NASDAQ: +9.01 (+0.18)

For the Day:
S&P 500: 2,099.13, -6.13 (0.29%)
Dow: 17,807.06, -31.50 (0.18%)
NASDAQ: 4,942.52, -28.85 (0.58%)

Crude Oil 48.90 -0.55% Gold 1,246.50 +2.80% EUR/USD 1.1366 0.00% 10-Yr Bond 1.70 -5.91% Corn 418.25 +0.72% Copper 2.12 +2.42% Silver 16.44 +2.59% Natural Gas 2.76 -0.54% Russell 2000 1,164.14 -0.55% VIX 13.47 -1.17% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4515 0.00% USD/JPY 106.5450 0.00%

Thursday, May 5, 2016

Stocks Pop, Drop, End Flat Before Jobs Friday

It is probably the dumbest thing going in the markets - besides, perhaps, waiting on FOMC decisions - but the monthly "Jobs Friday" fiasco is upon us once again, as breathless investors await one more dicey number form the government.

Prior to the market open on Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its April Non-Farm Payroll figure, and by that traders will have access to vital information needed to access the health of the economy and trade stocks.

except for the fact that the numbers are largely a joke, have been proven to be such, and are not of importance to anybody in particular. They offer a rather fuzzy view of the employment conditions in the United States, if one is even inclined to believe them.

So, stocks went up, came down and finished just about where they started the day, with the Dow up, the S&P and NASDAQ ever so slightly to the downside.

Idiots On Parade:
S&P 500: 2,050.63, -0.49 (0.02%)
Dow: 17,660.71, +9.45 (0.05%)
NASDAQ: 4,717.09, -8.55 (0.18%)

Crude Oil 44.51 +1.67% Gold 1,279.60 +0.41% EUR/USD 1.1403 0.00% 10-Yr Bond 1.75 -2.07% Corn 373.75 -0.80% Copper 2.14 -1.92% Silver 17.38 +0.43% Natural Gas 2.08 -2.80% Russell 2000 1,107.95 -0.47% VIX 15.91 -0.87% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4485 +0.02% USD/JPY 107.2700 -0.01%

A note on the blatant unfairness within the judicial system:
The Arbitration Association of America, which handles the majority of arbitration cases, charges $200 for an initial filing fee, not counting fees incurred by consumers who hire attorneys. The CFPB argues that fees like this have a cooling effect on potential claimants. Over the two-year period between 2010 and 2011, the CFPB found only 25 cases were filed by consumers with claims for under $1,000. For every dollar claimed, consumers won an average of 12% of the original claim in relief. Only 9% of consumers who took on financial institutions received any relief at all. In contrast, 93% of claims filed against consumers by financial institutions came out in the institution’s favor.

Thursday, March 3, 2016

All Eyes on Non-Farm Payrolls, But ECB and FOMC Hold More Intrigue for Stocks

Following Wednesday's low-volume advances (lowest of the year), stocks followed a similar pattern in Thursday's trading regimen, slumping at the open, only to rise through the day and close modestly green.

While the talking heads on Bloomberg and CNBC are hyperventilating over the February non-farm payroll report due out tomorrow morning, the true market-moving events concern central banks and they don't occur until next week and the following, beginning with the ECB policy announcement on March 10, and the FOMC meeting March 15-16.

After ADP's February private sector number coming in at 214,000 Wednesday morning, the market is expecting something in that range from the BLS, with consensus just a shade below 200,000.

Whatever the number, it should weigh on any rate decision the Fed has planned or is considering. Another 25 basis point hike in the federal funds rate at this meeting has been largely discounted by the market, meaning, that if the Fed stands pat on rates, then it is tacit understanding that their goal of four more hikes by the end of the year is very much being scrapped.

There are simply too many negative forces pulling at the Fed for them to do another rate hike. Everything from the fragile US economy to the cratering Yuan and Chinese GDP growth to the nut-case presidential primaries are under consideration by the most politically-motivated central bank in the known universe.

That is to say nothing of the 1500-point hissy fit thrown by the DJIA after the most recent rate increase, in December of last year.

Stocks continue to keep to the script here, with the S&P within hailing distance of 2000, and the Dow closing in fast on 17,000. Both are admirable short-term goals, but they will hardly prove to be persistent. Stocks are becoming severely overbought and overvalued, and charts show all kinds of evidence that the bull run from 2009 has ended. Besides, there's growing fears of a recession looming, especially after the poor performance not only of the past two quarters, but of the general seven-year-long recovery.

The key level is 17,200 for the Dow, a point at which there is a significant patch of heavily-fortified resistance.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the February non-farm payroll report at 8:30 am ET, Friday.

S&P 500: 1,993.40, +6.95 (0.35%)
Dow: 16,943.90, +44.58 (0.26%)
NASDAQ: 4,707.42, +4.00 (0.09%)

Crude Oil 34.60 -0.17% Gold 1,262.10 +1.63% EUR/USD 1.0963 +0.89% 10-Yr Bond 1.83 -0.97% Corn 355.50 -0.21% Copper 2.21 +1.26% Silver 15.23 +1.38% Natural Gas 1.64 -2.09% Russell 2000 1,076.05 +0.97% VIX 16.70 -2.28% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4178 +0.71% USD/JPY 113.65

Saturday, February 27, 2016

Stocks Gain For Second Straight Week; Rally Should Continue to FOMC Meeting

Chalking up another week of gains, US equity markets are putting the disaster that was January in the rear view mirror and moving on. The week ending February 26 was the second consecutive week of gains for the three major indices, though this one was not as potent as the first, signaling that while the rally in stocks may continue for some time, its momentum almost certainly is on the wane.

Over the past two weeks, the indices have clawed back roughly half of the losses suffered in January and the first week of February, a significant advance. Chart-watchers will be looking at key levels on the Dow and, especially, the S&P, seeking exit points before the eventual next downturn.

For the Dow, the next critical level is in the range between 17,200 and 17,350, about a two percent gain from where the market closed on Friday. The S&P is eyeing the 1985 to 2015 level, where significant resistance resides, again, roughly two percent from the close on the 26th.

The NASDAQ, already bumping up against its 50-day moving average, may have already lost momentum, though a move through the 4,620 mark could convince bulls that there's more upside on the horizon. The NASDAQ was the big winner, percentage-wise, on the week, but it remains at the heart of skepticism, loaded with risky energy and tech stocks, which comprise a hefty share of its index.

If the NASDAQ rolls over, this mini-rally could end quickly. A resumption of already well-established bear market conditions could extend into the Spring. One way or another, it's difficult seeing stocks surpassing the points from which they opened the new year. There's still much more risk to the downside than there are opportunities for a continuation of any rally.

While the past two weeks may have been "buy the dip" conditions in an oversold market, the converse, "selling the rip" should become apparent by the end of next week or, if the market and its participants grow increasingly patient and/or greedy, after the FOMC meeting on March 15-16.

A move to the downside prior to the meeting would signal a growing unease concerning Fed policies, which, to this point, have been less-than-reassuring to bullish plungers. While there's not much conviction among Fed-watcvhers that another rate increase is forthcoming, the risk remains. Another 25 basis point hike in the Federal Funds rate would send stocks to a semi-permananet shower. That's why the Fed won't move at this meeting, and the market pretty much knows it, so stocks are free to rally and investors are also free to take short-term profits.

With options expiration - a triple witching event - coming quick on the heels of the FOMC meeting, things could get very interesting on the 16th and 17th, as Fed policy is unveiled and the bulls have another chance to slaughter the shorts.

Look for stocks to gyrate at current levels, without much in the way of conviction, this week and into the next. Of course, the BLS non-farm payroll report for February will be closely followed, even though it has cemented its status as the worst barometer of both labor conditions and the general economy. The massaged numbers from the BLS are so statistically insignificant that they may well become more of an asterisk than an important inflection point as time progresses and the bear market resurfaces.

For now, however, the bulls have found a sweet spot. The smart money will be getting out shortly, the smarter money will squeeze out even more gains, and, as usual, the unsuspecting buy-and-hold muppets will be mercilessly stabbed, slashed and burned at the top of the short-term rally. The last two weeks of March and the advent of Spring should convince even the most optimistic that stocks have nowhere to go but down.

For the Week:
S&P 500: +30.27 (1.58)
Dow: +247.98 (1.51)
NASDAQ: +86.04 (1.91)

Friday's Foibles:
S&P 500: 1,948.05, -3.65 (0.19%)
Dow: 16,639.97, -57.32 (0.34%)
NASDAQ: 4,590.47, +8.27 (0.18%)

Crude Oil 32.84 -0.70% Gold 1,223.00 -1.28% EUR/USD 1.0932 0.00% 10-Yr Bond 1.7620 +3.83% Corn 358.75 -0.49% Copper 2.12 +2.29% Silver 14.71 -3.22% Natural Gas 1.79 +0.11% Russell 2000 1,037.18 +0.54% VIX 19.81 +3.66% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.3872 +0.03% USD/JPY 113.9850 0.00%

Friday, February 5, 2016

Jobs Number Baffles Market, But, The Market Is Saying SELL, SELL, SELL

With a January jobs number that was well short of expectations, at 151,000, the reaction from Wall Street was truly a puzzler. One could have easily gone with the "bad news is good news" meme, because if the economy is deteriorating (hint: it is) and layoffs are rampant (they are), then the Fed may not be able to justify any more increases in the federal funds rate this year.

That would be undeniably good for stocks.

It wasn't.

All the major indices took a nosedive right out of the gate, correctly predicted by the futures trading, which collapsed as soon as the number came out, an hour prior to the open.

So, what were the market mavens reading into the garbled mess that was the January Non-farm payrolls report?

Perhaps they looked at the wage growth, which was impressive, up a solid 1/2 percent, an unusually large jump, but probably the result of new legislation in a number of states which mandated higher minimum wages, which were where all the new jobs are - at the low end.

Or, the market might have reacted to the 4.9% unemployment rate, an unbelievable number, and again, a sign of a strengthening economy, which gives the Fed some latitude in raising rates. In any case, the odds of a rate increase later this year jumped on the news, sending stocks down the drain.

What traders see in the numbers may be far removed from what the numbers actually revealed, and the numbers themselves may not be very believable. After all, who actually believes that of those 151,000 jobs created, 58,000 of them were in retail? Remember, this was January, when retailers are normally laying people off after the holiday season. And this was no normal January either. Big chains, from Wal-Mart to Macy's to Sears were closing stores and letting people go. So, just who was hiring all these retail employees?

Then there were the 47,000 jobs created in the food service industry. Really? McDonald's, Applebee's, et. al., were hiring in January? The report also included a manufacturing sector increase of 29,000 jobs, which runs contrary to the recent ISM and PMI manufacturing jobs outlooks.

Money Daily warned yesterday that the BLS is famous for convoluted schemes to concoct bad figures and massive revisions, making the initial releases almost comical, and this one certainly fit the bill.

November and December were revised in opposite directions. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised from +252,000 to +280,000, and the change for December was revised from +292,000 to
+262,000, for a net loss of 2,000.

We also noted that the number would not be influential to markets unless it was a big overshoot or a big miss. It was a big miss, with the consensus estimate at 190,000. Besides being down more than 100,000 from December - even after the revision - it's a massive miss, and one that the market apparently could not readily overlook.

Overall, the damage to equity markets was pretty severe. The NASDAQ closed at its lowest level since October, 2014, some 17 months hence.

For the week:
S&P 500: -60.19 (-3.10%)
Dow: -261.33 (-1.59%)
NASDAQ: -250.81 (-5.44%)

The day's rout:
S&P 500: 1,880.05, -35.40 (1.85%)
Dow: 16,204.97, -211.61 (1.29%)
NASDAQ: 4,363.14, -146.42 (3.25%)

Crude Oil 31.02 -2.21% Gold 1,173.70 +1.40% EUR/USD 1.1162 -0.34% 10-Yr Bond 1.85 -0.86% Corn 366.50 -0.54% Copper 2.09 -1.88% Silver 15.02 +1.14% Natural Gas 2.07 +4.72% Russell 2000 985.62 -2.87% VIX 23.38 +7.05% BATS 1000 20,306.40 -1.64% GBP/USD 1.4503 -0.50% USD/JPY 116.8300 -0.05%

Thursday, February 4, 2016

There Are Still Stock Buyers, But They're Few and They're Wrong

Stocks in the US staged a half-hearted rally on Thursday, with virtually no news - good, bad or otherwise - to support the move, so, as they say in whispered tones, the market is trading on vapors.

Tomorrow's expected 185-195,000 January NFP may not have as much significance as previous iterations of the market's most-massaged number. There are other issues pressuring stocks that are of more importance. Also, with unemployment - according to "official" sources - very tame, only a huge beat or a huge miss could be cause for stocks to respond going into the weekend.

The money would be on "big miss," as Challenger, Gray and Christmas, the firm that monitors job layoff announcements in the US (and is a fairly reliable source), saw a 218% jump in announced job cuts in January, as employers issued more than 75,000 pink slips during the month.

Those figures aren't likely to be well-represented in the BLS figures on Friday, as the Labor Department has, over the years, garnered quite a reputation for seasonal adjustments and massive post hoc revisions, due, in the main, to the convoluted manner in which they arrive at their contrived conclusions.

In other words, the January non-farm payroll figures should be faded, no matter what they announce at 8:30 am tomorrow.

Gold and silver continued to rally strongly on Thursday, with gold crossing the $1150 rubicon and silver streaking toward $15/ounce, which, by the way, is still the bargain of the century (buy low, sell high, remember?)

Part of the reason for the metals to be heading higher is the decline in the dollar, which is down 4% on the week against competing currencies.

With the Super Bowl just a few days off, traders may tread lightly on Friday, with more interested in covering the spread then covering their clients' losses.

With the tiny uptick today, there's evidence of some level of buying interest, though it seems pretty non-committal and sparse, likely due to the fact that the Dow is still a solid 2000 points from all-time highs and those were set in May, 2015, which happens to be nine months ago.

If it looks like a bear, smells like a bear, it just could be a bear. Most people don't taunt bears. People on Wall Street may appear brave, but there's surely no shortage of stupidity.

Today's hopeful mess:
S&P 500: 1,915.45, +2.92 (0.15%)
Dow: 16,416.58, +79.92 (0.49%)
NASDAQ: 4,509.56, +5.32 (0.12%)

Crude Oil 31.68 -1.86% Gold 1,156.30 +1.31% EUR/USD 1.1215 +1.16% 10-Yr Bond 1.8640 -0.90% Corn 369.00 -0.54% Copper 2.12 +1.26% Silver 14.90 +1.16% Natural Gas 1.97 -3.14% Russell 2000 1,014.79 +0.44% VIX 21.84 +0.88% BATS 1000 20,644.48 +0.45% GBP/USD 1.4589 +0.0041% USD/JPY 116.7550 -1.09%

Friday, January 8, 2016

It's Not China; Dow Dumps 1000 Points in First Week of 2016

Thursday night in the US - Friday morning in the People's Republic of China - all eyes were glued to the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE), to see whether Chinese authorities' plan to suspend their rules on circuit breakers - a fifteen minute pause on a 5% loss, and closing for the day should a 7% loss occur - would hold stocks up or allow massive dumping of overpriced equities.

Disappointing many who would relish the thought of a worldwide collapse of the global stock Ponzi scheme, Chinese traders showed great restraint and state-owned companies bought equities on a wholesale basis, averting a rout in the market by posting a gain of nearly two percent.

It didn't do much good to support the overwhelming narrative of the mainstream press in Europe and the United States, as shares across the continent fell by 1.5% on average across the largest bourses, and the FTSE 100 in Great Britain shedding 0.70%.

In the US, hopes were high when the BLS announced a non-farm payroll increase of 292,000 jobs for December, above even the most aggressive estimates.

The markets didn't care.

Stocks showed modest gains across the three major averages at the open, but the narrative - and the indices - failed to produce positive results. By the end of Friday's session, the S&P joined the Dow and NASDAQ in correction territory, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average showing one of the worst weekly performances of all time, mirroring the collapse in August by shedding over 1000 points.

It was a horrific start to the new year, with the major averages shedding more than 6% on the week, the Dow posting triple-digit losses on four of the five days, the NASDAQ dropping by more than 7%.

The results for the week were downright depressing, the worst weekly start to a new year in the history of US exchanges:

S&P 500: -121.94 (-5.97)
Dow: -1079.12 (-6.19)
NASDAQ: -363.78 (-7.26)


On the day:
S&P 500: 1,922.02, -21.07 (1.08%)
Dow: 16,346.18, -167.92 (1.02%)
NASDAQ: 4,643.63, -45.79 (0.98%)


Crude Oil 33.09 -0.54% Gold 1,102.30 -0.50% EUR/USD 1.0921 -0.01% 10-Yr Bond 2.13 -1.07% Corn 356.25 +0.92% Copper 2.02 -0.25% Silver 13.94 -2.82% Natural Gas 2.49 +4.53% Russell 2000 1,048.78 -1.48% VIX 26.08 +4.36% BATS 1000 20,550.58 -1.01% GBP/USD 1.4524 -0.69% USD/JPY 117.51 -0.12%
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Monday, April 6, 2015

Exceedingly Poor Jobs Data Sends Stocks Soaring (the new normal)

Sometimes, it's just all too predictable.

When I saw the March jobs number on Friday, and the futures plunging, because, you know, 135,000 net new jobs in the US was about half of what was expected from the goal-seeking BLS.

Revisions to January and February cast an even more dismal pallor over the market, which, gratefully, was closed on Friday.

By Monday morning, stock futures were still in the doldrums and the Dow opened to an immediate loss of over 100 points, but the decline was soon to be erased by the "bad news is good news" crowd and voices from the Fed singing in united, dovish tones, to the tune of ZIRP 4 EVA.

Yep, like I had thought on Friday, a winning day for stocks. Meanwhile the US economy collapses like a house of cards in a wind storm.

Is there no end to this nightmare of a centrally-planned global economy? (Please, don't answer that.)

Dow 17,880.85, +117.61 (0.66%)
S&P 500 2,080.62, +13.66 (0.66%)
NASDAQ 4,917.32, +30.38 (0.62%)

Friday, January 10, 2014

Recovery? BLS Reports Just 74,000 New Jobs in December

It's tough to wrap one's head around numbers like the BLS released prior to the opening bell Friday morning, but they reported a paltry 74,000 jobs created in December of last year, the lowest print in nearly three years and magnitudes lower than consensus estimates of 200,000.

The number was fabulously rejected by Moody's economist Mark Zandi, who, live on CNBC, said the number should be "thrown out." Oddly enough, Zandi helps create the monthly private payroll report by ADP, which reported 238,000 December jobs on Wednesday.

The markets didn't take Zandi's advice, especially the bond market, as the 10-year note ripped higher, the yield dropping to 2.88%, the lowest since mid-December. Stocks spent most of the week's final session in the red, before rallying slightly into the close. The NASDAQ and S&P finished with gains on the day, though the Dow was down once again, though only slightly.

For the week, the Dow lost 32.94 points, the S&P gained 11.00 points and the NASDAQ was ahead by 42.76 points, so, depending on one's perspective, the lack of new job creation in the US just doesn't seem important to the valuation of equities, a judgement nuanced by the fact that the labor force participation rate fell to its lowest level in 35 years, at 62.8%.

Because so many people dropped out of the work force, the unemployment rate magically dropped to 6.7%, the lowest since the onset of the recession, in October, 2008.

The numbers belie what's really happening in the real world. Jobs are just not being created with any kind of rapidity, at least not at the rate one would associate with a falling unemployment rate.

But, as the saying goes, it's "good enough for government work," which is always shabby and usually falls apart before long.

The facade promoted over the past five years by the government and the media, that we're in the midst of a recovery, just met a reality that competes with the accepted propagandized narrative.

Just a note: the huge jump in corn prices (up $20.75) was due to the January crop report, which showed corn stocks at just a shade under 14 million bushels. The rise in price was largely due to short covering. Prices are expected to stabilize near 415-435 cents per bushel over the near term.

DOW 16,437.05, -7.71 (-0.05%)
NASDAQ 4,174.66, +18.47 (+0.44%)
S&P 1,842.37, +4.24 (+0.23%)
10-Yr Note 98.86, +0.81 (+0.83%) Yield: 2.88%
NASDAQ Volume 2.01 Bil
NYSE Volume 3.31 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3708-1994
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 390-23
WTI crude oil: 92.72, +1.06
Gold: 1,246.90, +17.50
Silver: 20.22, 0.54
Corn: 432.75, +20.75

Wednesday, January 8, 2014

Stocks Down Again, Failing at Second 2014 Benchmark

Amid economic cross-currents, the major indices failed at the second benchmark for the year, that being the first five days of trading, which turned out to be negative and indicative of a sub-par performance for stocks throughout 2014. The first benchmark was also negative, as stocks were sharply lower on the first trading day of the new year.

After the banner year that was 2103, in which the indices were ahead by anywhere from 26-30%, a pullback is, however, more likely than not.

Putting numbers to the reality, here's the performance for the first five trading days of 2014:
Dow: -114 points
S&P: -11 points
NASDAQ: -11 points
NYSE: -79 points


While these figures aren't anything dramatic, they are negative, suggesting that investors are taking a very cautious approach to stocks even as financial data appears to point toward a strengthening of the general economy.

ADP reported that 238,000 jobs were created in December, ahead of forecasts and predictive of an equally-strong number from the BLS when they report Friday on December non-farm payrolls.

On the flip side, retail traffic for the just-ended holiday shopping season was down 14%, though sales were still ahead by 2.7%, and, just ater the bell, Macy's (M) reported same-store sales gains in the 3.6% range but announced that they would be laying off 2500 employees and closing five stores. Shares of the company were up sharply on the news in after-hours trading.

Overall, markets were down throughout most of the day, especially the Dow Jones Industrials, which suffered the most. The NASDAQ was higher through most of the session and hit the unchanged mark with just about 20 minutes left in the trading day, but returned to slightly positive territory at the close.

Tomorrow, the first earnings report will be come to the markets as Alcoa (AA), a former Dow component, reports full-year and fourth quarter results.

DOW 16,462.74, -68.20 (-0.41%)
NASDAQ 4,165.61, +12.43 (+0.30%)
S&P 1,837.49, -0.39 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Note 97.94, -0.17 (-0.18%) Yield: 2.99%
NASDAQ Volume 2.20 Bil
NYSE Volume 3.47 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2585-3071
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 336-29
WTI crude oil: 92.33, -1.34
Gold: 1,225.50, -4.10
Silver: 19.54 , -0.248
Corn: 417.00, -9.00

Friday, December 20, 2013

Big Week for Stocks Ends on High Volume, 4.1% GDP

If stocks needed a little more of a boost after the Fed's taper-lite effort earlier in the week, the BLS gave it to them early Friday morning, when it announced the final revision to third quarter GDP at a whopping 4.1%, which turned out to be a solid increase over the already rosy 2.8% first estimate and 3.6% second estimate.

Thus, all the indices turned in a solid performance for the week, among the best of the year. The Dow had its third-best week of the year, and it has been a year of outsize gains overall and generally superior performance for equities when compared to all other asset classes.

Maybe the general economy is not exactly where everyone would like it to be, but it appears to be close enough for Wall Street, as trading winds down to just six trading days remaining in 2013.

For the week, the Dow was a moon-shot, gaining 465.78 points for a 2.96% rise; the NASDAQ tacked on 103.77 (2.59%); the S&P added 42.99 points (2.42%).

Record highs at the close on Friday were recorded for the Dow, S&P, Dow Transports and the Russell 2000.

Due to quadruple witching in options and futures, NASDAQ and S&P rebalancing, and a Fed-infused dose of holiday cheer, volume hit its best level of the year.

Bonds were well-behaved, with the benchmark 10-year note finishing at a modest 2.91% yield.

Everything looked so good, even gold and silver caught some bids.

The old song says, "Santa Claus is Coming to Town," though it appears the jolly fat man made Wall Street an early destination.

DOW 16,221.14, +42.06 (+0.26%)
NASDAQ 4,104.74, +46.61 (+1.15%)
S&P 1,818.31, +8.71 (+0.48%)
10-Yr Note 98.65, +0.50 (+0.51%) Yield: 2.91%
NASDAQ Volume 2.93 Bil
NYSE Volume 4.90 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4247-1527
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 505-63
WTI crude oil: 99.32, +0.28
Gold: 1,203.70, +10.10
Silver: 19.45, +0.267
Corn: 433.25, +2.75

Friday, September 6, 2013

NFP Jobs Data Disappoints; Fed-Taper in Question; Liesman's Big Lie

Following an early-session smack-down and a subsequent rally, stocks came right back to terra firma at the close, ending the session essentially flat.

Non-farm payroll data and Middle east posturing were the main catalysts for the early decline, the rally had little catalyst othe than empty reassurances from the president, or Bomber-in-Chief, who, after Russian President Vladimir Putin said that his nation would support and defend Syria in the face of any attacks, promised, once again, that strikes against Syria would be measured and brief.

Mr. Obama speaks as if he's planning a family outing of some sort rather than an act of war against a sovereign nation and his posturing and promising is nauseating, misguided and insincere. While the congress dithers over whether to grant him authority - as it must under the War Powers Act - to bomb Syria, a nation that poses no imminent threat to US interests, the president continues to tiptoe toward conflict, one which is likely to inflame parties in an already-tense region.

Market reactions to the president and congress are equally superfluous and without much forethought. To date, the US has done nothing but threaten Syria. If it ever comes to actual bombing, then the market will make up its mind as to whether such actions have consequences for stocks and bonds.

The other contributing factor to today's rocky trade was the August Non-Farm Payroll report which showed the US gaining 169,000 new jobs, well below consensus, and revising June and July data lower. The BLS also advised that the labor force participation rate had fallen again, to 63.2%, a number not seen since 1978, thirty-five years ago.

This item in the BLS calculus continues to plunge, and many, including CNBC's Chief Economist, Steve Liesman, cite the aging baby-boomers retiring as the main culprit, though other economists disagree, and heartily so. The number usually thrown about is that 10,000 baby boomers are retiring every day, though, if that were true, there would be something on the order of 300,000 jobs available every month and the labor condition would be booming, but those numbers are not showing up in the NFP reports.

A few of the prominent factors contributing to the lower participation rate are: 1) the coming of Obamacare, which is prompting more and more employers to hire only part-time workers; 2) a reluctance by companies large and small to replace workers lost through attrition or layoffs due to uncertainty in the economy or outright slowdown; 3) the ease by which individuals can qualify for public relief programs such as unemployment insurance, welfare or disability and the generosity of those programs, and; 4) a thriving underground economy of self-employed or off-the-books workers who simply aren't part of the statistical sample. It's been long known that government statistics are wildly faulty and unreliable, and the labor stats simply don't account for the literally millions of Americans who are making ends meet by working around, though or otherwise outside the system, a system which sucks the lifeblood, via taxation and regulation, out of both employers and workers.

The government's statistics may be relied upon by Wall Street investors, but the logic and realism of their assumptions is faulty at best and downright improper at worst. Americans have always found means to an end, and, when the government - all all levels - exerts undue, stifling restrictions upon the citizenry, the people quietly move on without them. Beating back the government by hook or by crook is an American tradition and it will remain that way, so long as people in power feel the necessity to invade every aspect of a citizen's life.

Dow 14,922.50, -14.98 (0.10%)
NASDAQ 3,660.01, +1.23 (0.03%)
S&P 500 1,655.17, +0.09 (0.01%)
NYSE Composite 9,439.66, +19.31 (0.20%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,668,595,250
NYSE Volume 3,384,952,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3718-2834
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 206-54
WTI crude oil: 110.53, +2.16
Gold: 1,386.50, +13.50
Silver: 23.89, +0.636

Friday, July 5, 2013

Jobs Data Sends Stocks Screaming Higher; 10-Year at 1.71%

This was different.

For a change, good news - an increase of 195,000 jobs in June, according to the monthly BLS non-farm payroll survey - was good news.

Interest rates, on the other hand, took the matter more seriously, with the 10-year note bobbing up to 1.71%, a two-year high, that has some deep thinkers saying 30-year mortgages could reach six percent by the end of the year.

Other optimistic assessments of the economy include unicorns on roller skates and free houses for everyone.

The huge gains notwithstanding, volume was one of the lowest of they year, which, naturally, will be blamed on Friday being part of a four-day weekend. The markets will keep the gains, nonetheless.

Looks like we're off to the races again, with second quarter earnings beginning to trickle in next week, though most forecasters have lowered 2Q GDP estimates to under 1%.

The over-riding theme of the market is that this is a great economy, even if it isn't.

Crude oil is hitting multi-year highs; gold and silver are making multi-year lows.

That makes about as much sense as sending sixth grader to the store for whiskey and smokes.

American markets are the greatest show snow job on earth.

Dow 15,135.84, +147.29 (0.98%)
NASDAQ 3,479.38, +35.71 (1.04%)
S&P 500 1,631.89, +16.48 (1.02%)
NYSE Composite 9,214.17, +79.09 (0.87%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,205,887,125
NYSE Volume 2,960,337,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3937-2511
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 493-112
WTI crude oil: 103.22, +1.98
Gold: 1,212.70, -39.20
Silver: 18.74, -0.964

Friday, June 7, 2013

Stocks Pop on Jobs Data; Gold, Silver Smashed Again

Was there ever any doubt?

After a volatile week, stocks staged a huge run-up on Friday - the second-best advance for the Dow this year - after the non-farm payroll report from the BLS showed a gain in employment of 175,000 jobs for May.

The number, always an important one - or so we're led to believe - was really of the Goldilocks variety: not too hot to encourage tapering by the Fed, and not too cold to actually show weakness in the US economy. The BLS delivered a number that was "just right" and it was off to the races, right from the opening bell.

Stocks finished near the highs of the day, but for the week were less impressive. The Dow closed up 133 points for the week, but that was six points below Monday's close. The NASDAQ added 133 points, while the S&P was up 12. The 10-year note closed out at 2.17, a somewhat scary number, the highest in more than six months.

Whether the day's gains were due to the employment figures or the fact that it was a Friday - a day in which stocks have shown a great propensity to fly, with or without wings - is one for the theorists to argue.

The question is where do stocks go from here, as they are smack-dab in between all-time highs and a nasty little bottom from the middle of the week. In normal times, one would expect a retracement to re-test the lows, but these are anything but normal times.

Gold and silver were beaten down once again, this time, silver being the main target of the central banks, sending gold's shiny cousin to its worst closing level since September of 2010, though it needs to be pointed out that the spot price no longer correlates to the actual price of acquiring physical metal, that being currently around $28-30.

WTI crude oil continued its relentless ascent toward the $100/barrel mark.

The games continue.

Dow 15,248.12, +207.50 (1.38%)
NASDAQ 3,469.21, +45.16 (1.32%)
S&P 500 1,643.38, +20.82 (1.28%)
NYSE Composite 9,356.91, +96.41 (1.04%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,600,646,875
NYSE Volume 3,439,967,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4318-2217
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 204-41
WTI crude oil: 96.03, +1.27
Gold: 1,383.00, -32.80
Silver: 21.74, -0.964

Friday, December 7, 2012

Dow Gets Big Bump from BLS Jobs Data

Stocks got a boost from better-than-expected non-farm payroll data from the BLS, though the labor participation rate continued to slide. There were 146,000 net new jobs created in November, so no reason to blame Hurricane Sandy for anything. October's number was revised drastically lower, from 171K to 138K.

There was no movement on the fiscal cliff non-negotiations, which was supposed to be what Wall Street feared, though, as we've seen throughout the past 4+ years, anything pertaining to the economics of ordinary people or what happens on Main Street, simply gets brushed aside by Wall Street.

The NASDAQ was dragged down and the S&P weighted down by the continuing slide in shares of Apple (AAPL), a stock that is just plain broken after huge speculative plays over the past two years.

Whistling past the grave, indeed.

Dow 13,155.13, +81.09 (0.62%)
Nasdaq 2,978.04, -11.23 (0.38%)
S&P 500 1,418.07, +4.13 (0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 1.63% +0.05
NYSE Volume 3,086,974,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,612,160,125
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2797-2656
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 123-50
WTI crude oil: 85.93, -0.33
Gold: 1,705.50, +3.70
Silver: 33.13, +0.017

Friday, May 4, 2012

Payroll Number Slams Stocks to the Deck

Yesterday in this space, it was suggested that the immediate future for stocks was all tied to today's non-farm payroll number from the BLS, and, as the ADP figure from Wednesday foretold, the results were lower than expectations and on the whole, put a serious dent in the "road to recovery" theory.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said 115,000 net new jobs were created in April, and the unemployment rate dipped to 8.1%, though the reason for the decline in unemployment were that more people ran to the end of their unemployment benefits and others left the workforce entirely. The US workforce participation rate shrank to 63.6% of the adult population, the lowest since 1981.

While the 115,000 new jobs are barely enough to keep pace with a growing workforce in normal times, in the abnormality of today, people are not entering the labor force, but leaving it, putting a very large question mark at the end of any discussion regarding jobs in the United State. It is obvious from this report and others before it that the country's businesses are simply not creating enough jobs to get back to anything even close to full employment. The reasons behind the non-hiring conditions are manifold, but are centered on lack of demand in a sluggish economy wracked by over-regulation and conflicting visions of the near future by legislators who have sat upon their hands and watched the economy deteriorate.

Stocks took a beating right at the start and continued their downward trajectory throughout the morning, finally bottoming out around the lunch hour. The remainder of the session was spent wringing hands, with no noticeable movement in either direction, as the major averages settled into a support range.

A variety of analysts took differing views on the NFP number, most making he point that this April number was a kind of "payback" for the strong numbers in January and February. However, those gains were - in a large part - due to accounting tinkering at the BLS with seasonal adjustments heading the suspect list of fudge-makers.

Governments shed 15,000 jobs, so the private sector growth was 130,000, which, after all, is still a gain, but the underlying trends of many marginally-employed people and those dropping out of the workforce remain problematic over the long haul. The 115,000 was well below consensus estimates for 162,000. whatever ways one wishes to spin it or slice it, a miss is still a miss and investors took note along with short term profits.

The results speak for themselves and put the country's economic future more or less on hold until the May numbers are released. That's a long time for uncertainty to fester and other events to take the situation to even worse levels. While a good portion of the labor condition is being led by political considerations, most of it is the pure stuff of economics textbooks. Slack demand and stagnancy, even in an era of absurdly low interest rates, makes hiring decisions problematic and possibly shelved for a future date. The decay of confidence at all levels of the business community continues to feed upon itself in a very non-virtuous loop, the most egregious effects being felt in the small and start-up areas, where most new jobs are created.

Analysts and pundits can make up all the excuses and white lies they like, but the numbers speak for themselves and they are not pretty.

Notably, new lows exceeded new highs for the first time in over a month, losing stocks were widespread, outnumbering winners by a 7:2 ratio. Oil took a severe downturn for the second straight day, closing below $99 per barrel for the first time since February. The $4.05 decline was the largest of 2012. Gas at the retail pump remains stubbornly high, despite recent pull-backs.

Gold and silver rebounded from recent declines, more in sympathy with unstable global economic conditions than any other factor.

Dow 13,038.27, -168.32 (1.27%)
NASDAQ 2,956.34, -67.96 (2.25%)
S&P 500 1,369.10, -22.47 (1.61%)
NYSE Composite 7,933.29, -116.59 (1.45%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,937,374,375
NYSE Volume 3,924,361,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1268-4345
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 88-140
WTI crude oil: 98.49, -4.05
Gold: 1,645.20, 10.40
Silver: 30.43, +0.42

Monday, April 9, 2012

Economic Dark Clouds Forming in Aftermath of Non-Farm Payroll Miss

Even though US markets were closed on Friday, the BLS did release the monthly non-farm payroll data for March at its regularly-scheduled time, and the results were not pleasant to those of the bullish, "recovery" persuasion.

Non-farm payrolls for March showed an increase of 120,000 net new jobs on expectations of 205,000, a horrific miss that sent shock waves around the globe.

Far eastern markets were the first to react on Monday morning, with the majority sporting hefty losses. European markets were closed for Easter Monday, so their reaction will be registered on the morrow.

US market participants waited patiently until Monday morning to move on the news, though market futures provided a clear guide even as early as Friday morning, when Dow futures were down 120 points, almost exactly where the market eventually opened following the weekend.

As anticipated, the move downward was swift, right at the open, and markets drifted along the lower range until midday, when a hint of a rally materialized, though it was not materially significant and faded badly into the close.

Technical damage was evident. The advance decline ratio was substantially impaired, with decliners outpacing advancers by a 4:1 ratio and the new highs to new lows measure completely flipped over, marking the lowest number of new highs and the highest number of new lows in at least six months.

Those technical indicators should not be dismissed out of hand, as they could be presaging a violent reversal from the immediate highs of just a week ago. Entering an earnings season which is widely considered to come in weaker than those of the recent past, the stage is set for a serious short-term market correction at exactly the wrong time, as traditionalists and day-traders alike will be taking caution and pulling profits off the table at the earliest opportunity.

Late Spring and Summer have established historical precedents which indicate a long, slow slog approaching the fall and the boorish election season.

The rhetoric out of Washington and the bullying bullishness from Wall Street will only resound louder as earnings are released through the month of April and into early May. While pundits and perma-bulls are already calling this a temporary bounce, those same voices are calling for another round of QE from the magnanimous Federal Reserve. With a FOMC meeting just two weeks hence, rumors will be circulated on both sides of that argument, though the bulls will be caught in an untenable position, because, if the economy is actually doing well, then no further easing is necessary.

The cards are on the table and the Fed, it appears, has drawn a dead hand, as has the general economy and the Wall Street crowd. The result may well be an empty pot with nobody willing to make an opening bid.

Interestingly, about the only instrument that rose on the day was gold. Equity market volume was at levels heretofore unseen, even in this era of non-participation.

Dow 12,929.59, -130.55 (1.00%)
NASDAQ 3,047.08, -33.42 (1.08%)
S&P 500 1,382.20, -15.88 (1.14%)
NYSE Composite 7,992.32, -89.03 (1.10%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,369,666,125
NYSE Volume 3,142,976,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1110-4539
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 46-125
WTI crude oil: 102.46, -0.85
Gold: 1,643.90, +13.80
Silver: 31.52, -0.21

Friday, October 7, 2011

Wall Street is a Crooked, Rotten, Rigged Casino

Just to keep everybody on their toes, the criminals running the Wall Street Casino sold off stocks at the end of the day.

The only real news - if one can call data from the horribly inefficient BLS "real" - was the September non-farm payroll report, showing a gain of 103K for the month. August was revised upward, from zero to 57,000 new jobs. Yeah, sure.

There's so much noise in this market, let's just leave it there. Maybe it will die and rot away over the Columbus day weekend.

Have a nice weekend. Go, Cardinals!

Dow 11,103.12, -20.21 (0.18%)
NASDAQ 2,479.35, -27.47 (1.10%)
S&P 500 1,155.46, -9.51 (0.82%)
NYSE Composite 6,925.80, -71.84 (1.03%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,106,904,500
NYSE Volume 5,434,408,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1866-4649
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 19-89
WTI crude oil: 82.98, +0.39
Gold: 1638.60, -11.70
Silver: 31.10, -0.83

Friday, September 2, 2011

Stocks Slide on NFP ZERO JOB GROWTH; FHFA Sues Big Banks

The Markets

Once the August Non-Farm Payroll report was out, US equities were as good as done. The BLS reported - for the first time since February, 1945 - that no new jobs were created in the month. That's right. Zero. None. Squat.

Adding to the general jobs plight and blight in the US, July and June gains were revised lower. July was down to 85,000 from 117,000 previously reported and June figures showed that employers added just 20,000 jobs in June, not 46,000, for a net loss of 58,000 jobs from previously-believed figures.

Off of that kind of defining news on the economy, stocks dove at the open and stayed down all day long, finishing near their lows.

The other major market mover was news that the Federal Home Finance Agency (FHFA) - the agency tasked with overseeing the conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - was in the process of suing as many as 17 major banks over faulty underwriting on - you guessed it, didn't you? - soured mortgage backed securities (MBS). This news was breaking all day, though details were trickling in at the market's closing bell.

The banks being sued were Bank of America, Merrill Lynch (a subsidiary of BofA) for $22.4 Billion, Citigroup, Barklays, Nomura, among others.

Dow 11,240.26, -253.31 (2.20%)
NASDAQ 2,480.33, -65.71 (2.58%)
S&P 500 1,173.97, -30.45 (2.53%)
NYSE Composite 7,250.73, -192.73 (2.59%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,582,149,000
NYSE Volume 4,363,518,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ advance-decline: 1075-5448
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 20-147
NYMEX WTI crude oil futures: 86.45, -2.48
Gold: 1882.50, +57.10
Silver: 43.25, +1.75


The big winners on the day were the prudent and astute conservative investors holding gold and silver, both of which were boosted significantly as the fear of a looming recession rises and problems in Europe escalate over the second Greek bailout.

Basically, anybody who doesn't believe either a) we're already in a recession; b) the first recession never actually ended; or c) we're about to go into a recession, simply has not been paying attention, or, is paying attention to the globalist media's consistent pleadings that the economy is doing just fine.

With the nitwits in Washington more intent on getting re-elected than fixing real problems, the United States, and by inference, the rest of the world is sinking deeper and deeper into a global depression which likely won't be resolved without drastic measures (war, currency debasement, bank failures on a grandiose scale).

With that in mind, let's party the three-day weekend away with the following:

IDEA: Don't Google it, Bing it!

Most of us use Google for searches, but Bing is better. Not only does Bing offer more options, better video and image coverage, but they have a rewards program by which users can accumulate points and eventually redeem them for some nice items (it takes a while, but if you search a lot, they add up).

What does Google offer besides a lot of ads next to search results? Nothing.

Try Bing. It's better.