What passes for equity markets in America since 2008 are nothing like the vibrant, progressive institutions prevalent through the halcyon days of the 1990s and prior. Today's casinos are run by big banks and their trick algos, destroying any kind of price discovery in their quest for never-ending profits on the backs of weak companies and even sillier analysts.
Take Amazon (AMZN), for instance. On a day after reporting a loss when they were expected to show a gain for the quarter, along with missing on the revenue side and issuing skeptical guidance, the stock erased early losses and ended the day with a tidy gain. So much for fundamental analysis, price-earnings and other metrics which used to be the norm in real, functioning markets.
Today's casino has no correlation trades except those blessed by upturned-nose analysts from top firms who piece together whatever data they can cherry-pick to make their cases. It's really turned into a situation where it's every man, woman and snooty banker for him/herself.
So it was that the Dow erased all of a 140-point loss incurred in the morning (with all but Merck in negative territory) to finish the day with a modest gain. The NASDAQ was even more extreme, whipping down 20 points in the morning only to gain it all back and turn positive shortly before 2:00 pm EDT and post a 0.22% uptick. There was, as is the usual case, no shaking news or market-moving event, other than that one of the biggest thieves on the planet, Steve Cohen and his firm, SAC Capital, have come under the probing eye of the SEC. Cohen will likely settle before he is even charged and the firm will be liquidated, the money going into the coffers of the federal government, which, of course, needs the money since tax revenues are down severely and the budget process is an absolute mess.
Nothing new on Wall Street this Friday. Just more of the rampant theft and manipulation that has become the trademark of our corrupt, greed-infested markets. That and the reliance of Ben Bernanke's Fed putting a floor under the market is about all one can trust these days.
Good grief. If I hear Maria Bartiromo say, "it looks like it wants to go positive," one more time, there may soon be a busted flat screen left out on my front lawn for the trash man. Today's move was a bad joke. Just look at the A-D line.
Enjoy your weekend in the Hamptons, you rich crooked bums, and don't forget to BTFD.
For the rest of you, more silver, gold, tools, machinery and farm land.
Dow 15,558.83, +3.22 (0.02%)
NASDAQ 3,613.16, +7.98 (0.22%)
S&P 500 1,691.65, +1.40 (0.08%)
NYSE Composite 9,620.42, -14.64 (0.15%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,666,886,250
NYSE Volume 2,991,769,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2758-3710
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 245-63
WTI crude oil: 104.68, -0.81
Gold: 1,321.50, -7.30
Silver: 19.80, -0.35
Showing posts with label Ben Bernanke. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ben Bernanke. Show all posts
Friday, July 26, 2013
Friday, July 12, 2013
Boffo Week for Stocks; Gas Prices on the Rise
For investors, a week nearly devoid of any actionable news resulted in one of the best weekly gains in stocks of the year.
On the week, stocks roared higher, much of the gains based on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's dovish comments on unemployment and the economy following the close of trading on Wednesday. Fed governor James Bullard - the most dovish of the flock of doves comprising the Fed governors - chimed in late Friday to add more fuel to the hot money rally.
The weekly gains:
Dow: +328.46 (2.17%)
S&P 500: +48.30 (2.96%)
NASDAQ: +120.70 (3.47%)
That's it in a nutshell. Just remember that nothing matters except the words coming out of Fed members' mouths.
On the downside, oil prices have spiked higher, consequently raising the price of fuel at the pump. According to AAA, gas prices nationally rose an average of 7 1/2 cents this week to $3.550 for unleaded regular, but the price pass-along to stations has only just begun. Drivers should brace for gas at $3.80 to over $4.00, depending on location, long before Labor Day.
Dow 15,464.30, +3.38(0.02%)
NASDAQ 3,600.08, +21.78(0.61%)
S&P 500 1,680.19, +5.17(0.31%)
NYSE Composite 9,493.20, -0.06 (0.00%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,487,364,375
NYSE Volume 3,132,032,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3295-3092
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 543-27
WTI crude oil: 105.95, +1.04
Gold: 1,277.60, -2.30
Silver: 19.79, -0.164
On the week, stocks roared higher, much of the gains based on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's dovish comments on unemployment and the economy following the close of trading on Wednesday. Fed governor James Bullard - the most dovish of the flock of doves comprising the Fed governors - chimed in late Friday to add more fuel to the hot money rally.
The weekly gains:
Dow: +328.46 (2.17%)
S&P 500: +48.30 (2.96%)
NASDAQ: +120.70 (3.47%)
That's it in a nutshell. Just remember that nothing matters except the words coming out of Fed members' mouths.
On the downside, oil prices have spiked higher, consequently raising the price of fuel at the pump. According to AAA, gas prices nationally rose an average of 7 1/2 cents this week to $3.550 for unleaded regular, but the price pass-along to stations has only just begun. Drivers should brace for gas at $3.80 to over $4.00, depending on location, long before Labor Day.
Dow 15,464.30, +3.38(0.02%)
NASDAQ 3,600.08, +21.78(0.61%)
S&P 500 1,680.19, +5.17(0.31%)
NYSE Composite 9,493.20, -0.06 (0.00%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,487,364,375
NYSE Volume 3,132,032,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3295-3092
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 543-27
WTI crude oil: 105.95, +1.04
Gold: 1,277.60, -2.30
Silver: 19.79, -0.164
Thursday, July 11, 2013
Dovish Bernanke Speaks, Market Goes Full Retard, to Record Highs
Free market and Austrian economists beware!
There is a dangerous monster afoot, who by merely speaking a few words can alter global markets to whatever whim he so desires.
On Wednesday, shortly after the market closed, this monster, this unsightly beast, one Benjamin Shalom (we kid you not) Bernanke, Chairman of the United States Federal Reserve Bank (an international cartel), spoke in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and intoned, in part, that the 7.6% unemployment rate "overstated" the health of the labor market.
Translated into Fed-speak - which is all that matters to equity markets these days - what he meant was that there was no need for investors to panic. The Federal reserve has every intention of keeping monetary policy incredibly loose, so that even if the Fed dials back its $85 billion-a-month bond purchasing program a little, they do not believe that the US or global economy is strong enough to survive without stimulative measures.
The result was a strong gap-up at the open on Thursday and an all-day party for Wall Street bulls with the S%P 500 and the Dow Industrials closing at all-time highs. Bears were once again crushed and the rookie Dow Theorists who surmised that the dip from a few weeks ago was a sure-fire reversal into a bear market (we here at MD did not confirm any such theoretical reversal, though indications were close) were once again proven not only wrong but absolutely clueless when it comes to Dow Theory.
Markets have now been completely voided of any validity to fundamental valuation. All that remains is intonations from the beast of the Fed and his minions, sending markets any which way they choose. These are markets distorted completely out of focus from reality, in 1984-esque fashion, where bad news (Bernanke is correct, 7.6% unemployment is, in itself, a gross distortion of reality - stripping out part-time, temporary and distressed and discouraged workers, unemployment is closer to 20%) is good because the Fed will continue to supply unlimited liquidity.
In the end, be it five days, five weeks, five months, five years or longer, the stimulus will save nothing. Sovereign economies will end in shambles (some, like Greece, Portugal, Cyprus and Ireland already are), but for now, all anybody with as much as half a brain left after all the brain-washing by the media and immoral rounds of bailouts, bail-ins, rescues and refinances can do is play along, go along or go one's own way, the latter of which is highly refreshing and the only proper course of action.
Five years into the global currency melt-down, carnage is everywhere, the rich are even richer, the middle class on the endangered species list and the bottom tier nothing more than debt slaves for life.
This is not your father's America. It is not even the America you grew up into, if you are more than 30 years of age. This is an abomination, a monstrosity of complexity, a leviathan more frightening than even Thomas Hobbes could have dreamt.
Happy sailing, oh rudderless ones!
Dow 15,460.92, +169.26 (1.11%)
NASDAQ 3,578.30, +57.55 (1.63%)
S&P 500 1,675.02, +22.40 (1.36%)
NYSE Composite 9,493.21, +152.52 (1.63%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,680,093,125
NYSE Volume 3,796,463,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 5246-1307
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 772-21 (abominal!)
WTI crude oil: 104.91, -1.61
Gold: 1,279.90, +32.50
Silver: 19.96, +0.791
There is a dangerous monster afoot, who by merely speaking a few words can alter global markets to whatever whim he so desires.
On Wednesday, shortly after the market closed, this monster, this unsightly beast, one Benjamin Shalom (we kid you not) Bernanke, Chairman of the United States Federal Reserve Bank (an international cartel), spoke in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and intoned, in part, that the 7.6% unemployment rate "overstated" the health of the labor market.
Translated into Fed-speak - which is all that matters to equity markets these days - what he meant was that there was no need for investors to panic. The Federal reserve has every intention of keeping monetary policy incredibly loose, so that even if the Fed dials back its $85 billion-a-month bond purchasing program a little, they do not believe that the US or global economy is strong enough to survive without stimulative measures.
The result was a strong gap-up at the open on Thursday and an all-day party for Wall Street bulls with the S%P 500 and the Dow Industrials closing at all-time highs. Bears were once again crushed and the rookie Dow Theorists who surmised that the dip from a few weeks ago was a sure-fire reversal into a bear market (we here at MD did not confirm any such theoretical reversal, though indications were close) were once again proven not only wrong but absolutely clueless when it comes to Dow Theory.
Markets have now been completely voided of any validity to fundamental valuation. All that remains is intonations from the beast of the Fed and his minions, sending markets any which way they choose. These are markets distorted completely out of focus from reality, in 1984-esque fashion, where bad news (Bernanke is correct, 7.6% unemployment is, in itself, a gross distortion of reality - stripping out part-time, temporary and distressed and discouraged workers, unemployment is closer to 20%) is good because the Fed will continue to supply unlimited liquidity.
In the end, be it five days, five weeks, five months, five years or longer, the stimulus will save nothing. Sovereign economies will end in shambles (some, like Greece, Portugal, Cyprus and Ireland already are), but for now, all anybody with as much as half a brain left after all the brain-washing by the media and immoral rounds of bailouts, bail-ins, rescues and refinances can do is play along, go along or go one's own way, the latter of which is highly refreshing and the only proper course of action.
Five years into the global currency melt-down, carnage is everywhere, the rich are even richer, the middle class on the endangered species list and the bottom tier nothing more than debt slaves for life.
This is not your father's America. It is not even the America you grew up into, if you are more than 30 years of age. This is an abomination, a monstrosity of complexity, a leviathan more frightening than even Thomas Hobbes could have dreamt.
Happy sailing, oh rudderless ones!
Dow 15,460.92, +169.26 (1.11%)
NASDAQ 3,578.30, +57.55 (1.63%)
S&P 500 1,675.02, +22.40 (1.36%)
NYSE Composite 9,493.21, +152.52 (1.63%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,680,093,125
NYSE Volume 3,796,463,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 5246-1307
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 772-21 (abominal!)
WTI crude oil: 104.91, -1.61
Gold: 1,279.90, +32.50
Silver: 19.96, +0.791
Tuesday, July 9, 2013
Thanks to Bernanke, Stocks Can Only Go Up
It was another completely uneventful day on Wall Street - no earnings news outside of Alcoa (trading at a 34 p/e, wow!), no economic data - so the computer algos were free to ramp stocks higher, and they did so.
A small dip around 10:30 am EDT gave the bears some hope, but that faded fast, and stocks resumed their levitation, hovering listlessly around the highs of the session right into the close.
At these levels of (dis)interest and lack of meaningful news flow, the Dow could conceivably gain 1200-1500 points per month for the remainder of the year. Since nobody seems to give a whit about fundamental valuations, unchecked, Dow 20,000 becomes a distinct possibility by the end of the year.
Seriously, that's how warped these markets are.
God bless you, Ben Bernanke. You've brought untold wealth and prosperity to almost seven percent of Americans, those being the already rich and already prosperous, while denying safe investments bearing standard interest to hard-working, middle and lower-class savers. You are a scion. The bankers you've bailed out and bankrolled with ZIRP and QE should kiss your naked feet and bedeck you in roses and lavender.
Dow 15,300.34, +75.65 (0.50%)
NASDAQ 3,504.26, +19.43 (0.56%)
S&P 500 1,652.32, +11.86 (0.72%)
NYSE Composite 9,341.40, +75.11 (0.81%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,588,836,625
NYSE Volume 3,460,031,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4438-1990
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 585-49
WTI crude oil: 103.53, +0.39
Gold: 1,245.90, +11.00
Silver: 19.14, 0.10
A small dip around 10:30 am EDT gave the bears some hope, but that faded fast, and stocks resumed their levitation, hovering listlessly around the highs of the session right into the close.
At these levels of (dis)interest and lack of meaningful news flow, the Dow could conceivably gain 1200-1500 points per month for the remainder of the year. Since nobody seems to give a whit about fundamental valuations, unchecked, Dow 20,000 becomes a distinct possibility by the end of the year.
Seriously, that's how warped these markets are.
God bless you, Ben Bernanke. You've brought untold wealth and prosperity to almost seven percent of Americans, those being the already rich and already prosperous, while denying safe investments bearing standard interest to hard-working, middle and lower-class savers. You are a scion. The bankers you've bailed out and bankrolled with ZIRP and QE should kiss your naked feet and bedeck you in roses and lavender.
Dow 15,300.34, +75.65 (0.50%)
NASDAQ 3,504.26, +19.43 (0.56%)
S&P 500 1,652.32, +11.86 (0.72%)
NYSE Composite 9,341.40, +75.11 (0.81%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,588,836,625
NYSE Volume 3,460,031,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4438-1990
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 585-49
WTI crude oil: 103.53, +0.39
Gold: 1,245.90, +11.00
Silver: 19.14, 0.10
Thursday, June 27, 2013
Stocks Higher for Third Straight Session; Dow Back Above 15,000; Gold Below $1200
After Ben Bernanke scared the entire investing universe last week, his captains - Fed governors from the various districts - have been talking it back, generally saying that the economy isn't strong enough to support even a tapering of QE, which comes as welcome news to the money-hoarders on Wall Street, who like nothing better than access to capital at close to zero percent with which to play about in their rigged lottery.
So much for ever having a balanced, unstructured, free market that isn't completely held hostage to central planning by the Federal Reserve Bank. With this kind of thinking predominant, it doesn't take much in the way of analytical skills or market knowledge to profit in equities, since, it is, as they say, "the only game in town," complete with the promise of higher returns than bonds and - with the Fed keeping the monetary spigot wide open - limited downside risk.
That's it. We're back to the Fed and big banks running the show, letting savers get slaughtered because the market will not be allowed to do what it normally would: take a pause, maybe a 10-15% correction, and wipe out the mal-investments.
All this means is that it will take a total collapse of the global economy (or at least a large share of it) to get markets back into what would have been considered "normal" just a few years ago.
Zero percent interest rates are not normal. Central banks purchasing every kind of asset - in quantity - that isn't tied down is not normal. The past five years since the crash in September-October of 2008 have been an aberration and when economies return to sound fiscal and monetary practices, the collapse will be colossal, sparing nobody.
Be prepared. There's a good reason for gold and silver to be selling off dramatically while equity prices soar. The fed and their cohort central bankers cannot stop the deflationary spiral their own policies have created. Continuing a non-discount of money over time is, in itself, the root of deflation, yet the Fed seems content to put their own feet forward into the abyss.
In a nutshell, the problem lies with their downward pressure on gold, which has been in backwardation for months. Gold is collateral, meaning it is at the root of the monetary system. By artificially pressuring it ever lower, demand increases, though, because of hoarding, supply eventually becomes non-existent, all other currencies become devoid of value, thus creating the Pandora's-box-like situation where the price of gold is near nothing, but none can be purchased for fiat because all faith has been lost in currencies built on sand, leading, quite logically, to barter, the most primitive, yet most reliable, form of trade.
This is precisely where the current policy-driven, over-sensitized, can't-take-a-paper-loss, unbalanced global economy is headed. It could take as little as a month or as long as 20 years for the entire system to unwind, which is the conundrum currently facing the peoples of the planet. When it does, those barren, rice-paddy farmers in Southeast Asia will be better off than paper billionaires with nothing but broken promises, McMansions and zero productive skills, because the farmers, at least, will be able to raise their own food and have something to eat.
An eye for an eye, or, more aptly, a plot of land for an ounce of gold.
Nice message for an upbeat stock market day, huh? Keep buying into the system of lies, greed, avarice and contempt for one's fellow man and see how far that gets you. When the Dow is at 20,000 or 30,000 or higher and gold is only $500 an ounce, Adam Smith's invisible hand will come clapping down on all the broken rules of economics and crush the fiat currencies flat.
Dow 15,024.49, +114.35 (0.77%)
NASDAQ 3,401.86, +25.64 (0.76%)
S&P 500 1,613.20, +9.94 (0.62%)
NYSE Composite 9,143.55, +76.28 (0.84%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,643,086,125
NYSE Volume 3,722,540,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 5311-1227
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 218-60
WTI crude oil: 97.05, +1.55
Gold: 1,198.20, -31.60
Silver: 18.42, -0.162
So much for ever having a balanced, unstructured, free market that isn't completely held hostage to central planning by the Federal Reserve Bank. With this kind of thinking predominant, it doesn't take much in the way of analytical skills or market knowledge to profit in equities, since, it is, as they say, "the only game in town," complete with the promise of higher returns than bonds and - with the Fed keeping the monetary spigot wide open - limited downside risk.
That's it. We're back to the Fed and big banks running the show, letting savers get slaughtered because the market will not be allowed to do what it normally would: take a pause, maybe a 10-15% correction, and wipe out the mal-investments.
All this means is that it will take a total collapse of the global economy (or at least a large share of it) to get markets back into what would have been considered "normal" just a few years ago.
Zero percent interest rates are not normal. Central banks purchasing every kind of asset - in quantity - that isn't tied down is not normal. The past five years since the crash in September-October of 2008 have been an aberration and when economies return to sound fiscal and monetary practices, the collapse will be colossal, sparing nobody.
Be prepared. There's a good reason for gold and silver to be selling off dramatically while equity prices soar. The fed and their cohort central bankers cannot stop the deflationary spiral their own policies have created. Continuing a non-discount of money over time is, in itself, the root of deflation, yet the Fed seems content to put their own feet forward into the abyss.
In a nutshell, the problem lies with their downward pressure on gold, which has been in backwardation for months. Gold is collateral, meaning it is at the root of the monetary system. By artificially pressuring it ever lower, demand increases, though, because of hoarding, supply eventually becomes non-existent, all other currencies become devoid of value, thus creating the Pandora's-box-like situation where the price of gold is near nothing, but none can be purchased for fiat because all faith has been lost in currencies built on sand, leading, quite logically, to barter, the most primitive, yet most reliable, form of trade.
This is precisely where the current policy-driven, over-sensitized, can't-take-a-paper-loss, unbalanced global economy is headed. It could take as little as a month or as long as 20 years for the entire system to unwind, which is the conundrum currently facing the peoples of the planet. When it does, those barren, rice-paddy farmers in Southeast Asia will be better off than paper billionaires with nothing but broken promises, McMansions and zero productive skills, because the farmers, at least, will be able to raise their own food and have something to eat.
An eye for an eye, or, more aptly, a plot of land for an ounce of gold.
Nice message for an upbeat stock market day, huh? Keep buying into the system of lies, greed, avarice and contempt for one's fellow man and see how far that gets you. When the Dow is at 20,000 or 30,000 or higher and gold is only $500 an ounce, Adam Smith's invisible hand will come clapping down on all the broken rules of economics and crush the fiat currencies flat.
Dow 15,024.49, +114.35 (0.77%)
NASDAQ 3,401.86, +25.64 (0.76%)
S&P 500 1,613.20, +9.94 (0.62%)
NYSE Composite 9,143.55, +76.28 (0.84%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,643,086,125
NYSE Volume 3,722,540,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 5311-1227
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 218-60
WTI crude oil: 97.05, +1.55
Gold: 1,198.20, -31.60
Silver: 18.42, -0.162
Wednesday, June 26, 2013
Stocks Higher Despite Slower Economy
Editor's Note: Due to a scheduling conflict, the normal posting of Money Daily will be delayed until about 8:30-9:00 pm EDT this evening.
Stocks are in the midst of a strong rally Wednesday afternoon, despite a sharp, downward revision to first quarter GDP - to 1.8% - from 2.4% reported a month ago by the Commerce Department.
That bit of discouraging news meant nothing to Wall Street stock pickers, who only see higher prices and speculative gains in the face of the downdraft from the past two weeks.
With the second quarter coming to a close this Friday and a new June employment report out next Friday, this appears to be a case of getting in while the getting is good. Gains may be short-lived, though the "bad news is good" crowd, who thinks that slower economic growth will forestall the slowing of asset purchases by Chairman Ben Bernanke and his merry gang of bond-buyers.
More to follow...
Update: Turned out to by a typical low-volume ramp with a huge gap at the open. Whether the fraudsters-in-chiefs can manufacture another 90 Dow points by Friday - to get that index back over the magic 15,000 mark - is still in doubt.
Anyone still bullish knows that chartists will take everyone to task if the market doesn't make new highs from here, so resolution on a primary trend should be played out within the next seven to ten trading days.
If this recent, minor downdraft turns out to be garden variety for the "Fed" era, it's up, up and away, but stocks will be valued for perfection. It is still difficult to see how the status quo can continue to maintain smug certainty about equity values in the long run.
Dow 14,910.14, +149.83 (1.02%)
NASDAQ 3,376.22, +28.34 (0.85%)
S&P 500 1,603.26, +15.23 (0.96%)
NYSE Composite 9,067.27, +78.00 (0.87%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,641,171,250
NYSE Volume 3,983,478,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4360-2148
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 160-100
WTI crude oil: 95.50, +0.18
Gold: 1,229.80, -43.30
Silver: 18.59, -0.939
Stocks are in the midst of a strong rally Wednesday afternoon, despite a sharp, downward revision to first quarter GDP - to 1.8% - from 2.4% reported a month ago by the Commerce Department.
That bit of discouraging news meant nothing to Wall Street stock pickers, who only see higher prices and speculative gains in the face of the downdraft from the past two weeks.
With the second quarter coming to a close this Friday and a new June employment report out next Friday, this appears to be a case of getting in while the getting is good. Gains may be short-lived, though the "bad news is good" crowd, who thinks that slower economic growth will forestall the slowing of asset purchases by Chairman Ben Bernanke and his merry gang of bond-buyers.
More to follow...
Update: Turned out to by a typical low-volume ramp with a huge gap at the open. Whether the fraudsters-in-chiefs can manufacture another 90 Dow points by Friday - to get that index back over the magic 15,000 mark - is still in doubt.
Anyone still bullish knows that chartists will take everyone to task if the market doesn't make new highs from here, so resolution on a primary trend should be played out within the next seven to ten trading days.
If this recent, minor downdraft turns out to be garden variety for the "Fed" era, it's up, up and away, but stocks will be valued for perfection. It is still difficult to see how the status quo can continue to maintain smug certainty about equity values in the long run.
Dow 14,910.14, +149.83 (1.02%)
NASDAQ 3,376.22, +28.34 (0.85%)
S&P 500 1,603.26, +15.23 (0.96%)
NYSE Composite 9,067.27, +78.00 (0.87%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,641,171,250
NYSE Volume 3,983,478,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4360-2148
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 160-100
WTI crude oil: 95.50, +0.18
Gold: 1,229.80, -43.30
Silver: 18.59, -0.939
Friday, June 21, 2013
Dead Cats Don't Bounce... Much; Stocks End Worst Week Since Obama Re-election
Hey, we're screwed.
Anybody buying stocks today must have had money to burn because the direction is definitely to the downside for the foreseeable future.
Interest rates kept creeping higher and stocks met what used to be support, now known as resistance. The S&P couldn't get past 1600 and the Dow failed repeatedly at 14,850, the previous intra-day low.
Stocks had their worst week since November 5-9, 2012, the week inclusive of the re-election for Bachus Obummer. It's not a coincidence. Thank you , thank you , thank you, Mr. Bernanke. Volume was even heavier than yesterday, likely the highest of the year. Love volatility or go home.
Watch closely the new highs vs. new lows, which have shifted to heavy overweight in new lows. This is not a drill. A bear market forecast could appear any time, since the Bull is already well past four years old.
In keeping with the spirit of hating stocks and loving arable land, tools, machinery, goldfish ponds and pre-1965 silver coins, here's Billy Preston, circa 1974 (ugh, a bad year, but check out the hair)...
Dow 14,799.40, +41.08 (0.28%)
NASDAQ 3,357.25, -7.39 (0.22%)
S&P 500 1,592.43, +4.24 (0.27%)
NYSE Composite 9,018.57, +22.60 (0.25%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,685,610,750
NYSE Volume 6,174,438,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3467-3076
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 80-343
WTI crude oil: 93.69, -1.45
Gold: 1,292.00, +5.80
Silver: 19.96, +0.136
Anybody buying stocks today must have had money to burn because the direction is definitely to the downside for the foreseeable future.
Interest rates kept creeping higher and stocks met what used to be support, now known as resistance. The S&P couldn't get past 1600 and the Dow failed repeatedly at 14,850, the previous intra-day low.
Stocks had their worst week since November 5-9, 2012, the week inclusive of the re-election for Bachus Obummer. It's not a coincidence. Thank you , thank you , thank you, Mr. Bernanke. Volume was even heavier than yesterday, likely the highest of the year. Love volatility or go home.
Watch closely the new highs vs. new lows, which have shifted to heavy overweight in new lows. This is not a drill. A bear market forecast could appear any time, since the Bull is already well past four years old.
In keeping with the spirit of hating stocks and loving arable land, tools, machinery, goldfish ponds and pre-1965 silver coins, here's Billy Preston, circa 1974 (ugh, a bad year, but check out the hair)...
Dow 14,799.40, +41.08 (0.28%)
NASDAQ 3,357.25, -7.39 (0.22%)
S&P 500 1,592.43, +4.24 (0.27%)
NYSE Composite 9,018.57, +22.60 (0.25%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,685,610,750
NYSE Volume 6,174,438,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3467-3076
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 80-343
WTI crude oil: 93.69, -1.45
Gold: 1,292.00, +5.80
Silver: 19.96, +0.136
Thursday, June 20, 2013
The Day After: Stocks take Biggest Losses of Year; Gold, Silver Smashed
There was no place to hide for investors of any stripe on the day after the Fed's dramatic announcement on Wednesday that it planned to reduce asset purchases later this year.
Stocks, bonds, and commodities were all priced lower, reflecting the possible reality that the world's economy would not be propped up indefinitely by the Federal reserve's money-printing schemes of quantitative easing (QE) and zero percent interest rate policy (ZIRP).
Following Wednesday afternoon's sharp selloff, Thursday quickly turned into a blood bath, with all of the major averages breaking through support at 50-day moving averages and precious metals dropping to levels not seen in roughly three years.
Godl was down nearly $100/ounce at 4:00 pm EDT, with traffic shifting from the Comex and Globex to Asian markets which are sure to feel the after-effects of the West's massive breakdown.
Despite the huge moves in equities, the major indices are still only down less than five percent from all-time closing highs made late in May, but the abruptness of the moves in all markets was an unexpected shock to portfolios everywhere.
The 10-year note hit a three-year high yield, but pulled back slightly to end the day at 2.39. The five-year also closed at multi-year highs of 1.26% and the 30-year bond finished at 3.48%, 33 basis points higher than a month ago.
Fallout from today's moves in the markets will be far-reaching and should be considered the beginning of a new paradigm, one in which interest rates will continue to rise as (and if) the economy continues to improve, a scenario not fully bought into by everyone. While housing has shown strength in recent months, higher interest rates can only slow the growth potential as home-buyers will be able to afford less for their money or may delay purchases altogether.
Gold and silver were especially hard hit, with gold finishing below the $1300 level and silver under $20 per ounce.
With no real economic data of note and earnings still two to three weeks away, the markets will have to find some kind of stabilizing catalyst in the final week of June or heading into the Independence Day holiday the first week of July, investors will find themselves truly independent... of profits, assets and good trading ideas.
Everybody knew this day of reckoning was coming, though few thought it would be so soon and appear with such ferocity. Trading volume was at the highest level of the year, significant in that tomorrow's quarterly options expirations may have been closed out earlier than most had planned, rendering tomorrow's triple-or-quadruple-witching day moot.
Advancing issues were dwarfed by decliners, which outpaced them 9-to-1. New lows exceeded new highs, 436-59.
The losses on major indices were the worst since November 7, 2012, the day after the re-election of Barack Obama. It's not just coincidence that stocks would take their biggest tumbles on the day after electing the worst president in American history (he's easily outdone GW Bush, already) and the day following the tactical blundering of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. We are a nation of sheep led by abject morons.
Dow 14,758.32, -353.87 (2.34%)
NASDAQ 3,364.64, -78.57 (2.28%)
S&P 500 1,588.19, -40.74 (2.50%)
NYSE Composite 8,996.35, -259.36 (2.80%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,961,153,875
NYSE Volume 5,276,584,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 685-5966
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 59-436
WTI crude oil: 94.94, -3.30
Gold: 1,278.00, -96.00
Silver: 19.56, -2.063
Stocks, bonds, and commodities were all priced lower, reflecting the possible reality that the world's economy would not be propped up indefinitely by the Federal reserve's money-printing schemes of quantitative easing (QE) and zero percent interest rate policy (ZIRP).
Following Wednesday afternoon's sharp selloff, Thursday quickly turned into a blood bath, with all of the major averages breaking through support at 50-day moving averages and precious metals dropping to levels not seen in roughly three years.
Godl was down nearly $100/ounce at 4:00 pm EDT, with traffic shifting from the Comex and Globex to Asian markets which are sure to feel the after-effects of the West's massive breakdown.
Despite the huge moves in equities, the major indices are still only down less than five percent from all-time closing highs made late in May, but the abruptness of the moves in all markets was an unexpected shock to portfolios everywhere.
The 10-year note hit a three-year high yield, but pulled back slightly to end the day at 2.39. The five-year also closed at multi-year highs of 1.26% and the 30-year bond finished at 3.48%, 33 basis points higher than a month ago.
Fallout from today's moves in the markets will be far-reaching and should be considered the beginning of a new paradigm, one in which interest rates will continue to rise as (and if) the economy continues to improve, a scenario not fully bought into by everyone. While housing has shown strength in recent months, higher interest rates can only slow the growth potential as home-buyers will be able to afford less for their money or may delay purchases altogether.
Gold and silver were especially hard hit, with gold finishing below the $1300 level and silver under $20 per ounce.
With no real economic data of note and earnings still two to three weeks away, the markets will have to find some kind of stabilizing catalyst in the final week of June or heading into the Independence Day holiday the first week of July, investors will find themselves truly independent... of profits, assets and good trading ideas.
Everybody knew this day of reckoning was coming, though few thought it would be so soon and appear with such ferocity. Trading volume was at the highest level of the year, significant in that tomorrow's quarterly options expirations may have been closed out earlier than most had planned, rendering tomorrow's triple-or-quadruple-witching day moot.
Advancing issues were dwarfed by decliners, which outpaced them 9-to-1. New lows exceeded new highs, 436-59.
The losses on major indices were the worst since November 7, 2012, the day after the re-election of Barack Obama. It's not just coincidence that stocks would take their biggest tumbles on the day after electing the worst president in American history (he's easily outdone GW Bush, already) and the day following the tactical blundering of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. We are a nation of sheep led by abject morons.
Dow 14,758.32, -353.87 (2.34%)
NASDAQ 3,364.64, -78.57 (2.28%)
S&P 500 1,588.19, -40.74 (2.50%)
NYSE Composite 8,996.35, -259.36 (2.80%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,961,153,875
NYSE Volume 5,276,584,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 685-5966
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 59-436
WTI crude oil: 94.94, -3.30
Gold: 1,278.00, -96.00
Silver: 19.56, -2.063
Wednesday, June 19, 2013
Fed Clarifies Position on Bond Purchases; Markets Hate It
The widely-anticipated June FOMC meeting was worth the wait, as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his merry bank of economic soothsayers proved once and for all that they haven't got a clue what they're doing and that the market controls their actions, not the other way around.
Key take-aways from the policy decision (unchanged) and Bernanke's press conference were that the Fed saw downside risks to the economy "diminished," and that asset purchases - given improved economic conditions (pipe dream) - the Fed would begin to unwind, or, taper, those purchases from the current monthly level of $85 billion a month by the end of this year and end them completely by the middle of 2014.
This, of course, will never happen, as economic conditions are not improving, and, even if they are, are not improving quickly enough to warrant removal of the Fed's substantial monetary stimulus.
Market reaction was a bit slow to coalesce, but when it finally got the drift of what Bernanke was saying, sold off hard, with both stocks and bonds going into the tank. The Dow suffered one of its worst days of the year, off more than 200 points, while bond yields rose to 14-month highs on the ten-year note, at 2.33% and two-year highs on the five (1.26%).
What Bernanke didn't say was almost as intriguing as what he did, refusing to comment on why he is not going to attend the annual summit at Jackson Hole, sponsored by the Kansas City Fed, or whether or not he had plans to retire when his term expires early next year, though it appears, especially after President Obama's off-the-cuff remarks to Charlie Rose two nights ago, that the Chairman's tenure is at an end.
Bernanke did make one other clarification of note, that the Fed would hold its mortgage-backed securities to maturity, rather than sell them into the secondary market. Again, what he didn't say may be notable, as the decision to hold to maturity may be predicated on these securities (some of which are toxic to some degree or another) may not have the value at which the Fed is holding, or, since the Fed is pretty much 60% or more of the entire MBS market, maybe there is no secondary market of value.
Overall, it was a constructive session on the markets, but one which, unfortunately for bulls, appears to be in furtherance of the downward trend in equities.
With today's selloff, the bias has returned to the sell side and it seems as if the smart money is getting out while the getting is good.
Dow 15,112.19, -206.04 (1.35%)
NASDAQ 3,443.20, -38.98 (1.12%)
S&P 500 1,628.93, -22.88 (1.39%)
NYSE Composite 9,255.71, -143.93 (1.53%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,698,203,375
NYSE Volume 4,021,718,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1357-5161
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 254-125
WTI crude oil: 97.97, -0.47
Gold: 1,350.20, -16.70
Silver: 21.25, -0.427
Key take-aways from the policy decision (unchanged) and Bernanke's press conference were that the Fed saw downside risks to the economy "diminished," and that asset purchases - given improved economic conditions (pipe dream) - the Fed would begin to unwind, or, taper, those purchases from the current monthly level of $85 billion a month by the end of this year and end them completely by the middle of 2014.
This, of course, will never happen, as economic conditions are not improving, and, even if they are, are not improving quickly enough to warrant removal of the Fed's substantial monetary stimulus.
Market reaction was a bit slow to coalesce, but when it finally got the drift of what Bernanke was saying, sold off hard, with both stocks and bonds going into the tank. The Dow suffered one of its worst days of the year, off more than 200 points, while bond yields rose to 14-month highs on the ten-year note, at 2.33% and two-year highs on the five (1.26%).
What Bernanke didn't say was almost as intriguing as what he did, refusing to comment on why he is not going to attend the annual summit at Jackson Hole, sponsored by the Kansas City Fed, or whether or not he had plans to retire when his term expires early next year, though it appears, especially after President Obama's off-the-cuff remarks to Charlie Rose two nights ago, that the Chairman's tenure is at an end.
Bernanke did make one other clarification of note, that the Fed would hold its mortgage-backed securities to maturity, rather than sell them into the secondary market. Again, what he didn't say may be notable, as the decision to hold to maturity may be predicated on these securities (some of which are toxic to some degree or another) may not have the value at which the Fed is holding, or, since the Fed is pretty much 60% or more of the entire MBS market, maybe there is no secondary market of value.
Overall, it was a constructive session on the markets, but one which, unfortunately for bulls, appears to be in furtherance of the downward trend in equities.
With today's selloff, the bias has returned to the sell side and it seems as if the smart money is getting out while the getting is good.
Dow 15,112.19, -206.04 (1.35%)
NASDAQ 3,443.20, -38.98 (1.12%)
S&P 500 1,628.93, -22.88 (1.39%)
NYSE Composite 9,255.71, -143.93 (1.53%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,698,203,375
NYSE Volume 4,021,718,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1357-5161
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 254-125
WTI crude oil: 97.97, -0.47
Gold: 1,350.20, -16.70
Silver: 21.25, -0.427
Tuesday, June 18, 2013
When Three Strikes Is a Home Run
In the game of baseball, there are rules, immutable and unchanging. Three outs per inning. A caught fly ball is an out. Three strikes and you're out.
The world of high finance, as demonstrated daily on the trading platforms, carries no such rules, other than simple casino-style paradigms. Make the right bet, at the right time, and you're a winner, after the various parties to the trade take their respective cuts, of course. The broker gets theirs, the government, another. It's more about timing and luck, especially these days, when nothing much matters other than the directionality of the various computer algos plying and playing the indices.
So it is that in stocks, you have situations like today, wherein three strikes equates to hitting a home run. Prior to the opening bell, three different sets of economic data were presented, and, against expectations, all were swings and misses, except maybe the seasonally-adjusted building permits, which could be weighed as a foul tip into the catcher's mitt, a strike by any other name.
First came the May CPI, up 0.1%, on expectation of a rise of 0.2%, well short of the Fed's annualized two percent inflation target. Strike one. Next up, housing starts, which banked 914K, well below expectations of 950K. Strike two. As mentioned above, building permits, which mean nothing other than somebody is planning to do something, like put up a fence or remodel a bathroom, were just under the expected annualized rate of 975K - at 974K. Strike three.
The market response was as expected, with deference and possibly blissful ignorance toward the headline numbers, straight up all day, a veritable home run, even as auto sales in Europe reached 20-year lows and an agent of our very own secret police, the NSA (No Such Agency, to wise guys) testified to congress that the wholly unconstitutional massive spying program that filters every American's phone calls, emails and internet activity, prevented the bombing of the NY Stock Exchange by some nefarious, insidious suspect known only as "the doctor" in 2008. The NSA says more than 50 terrorist plots were uncovered by their spy programs since 9/11/2001. Not even the best Hollywood script writers could have come up with a better narrative to deprive citizens of their fourth amendment rights. Those NSA guys hire only the best, you know.
Thus stocks ended the day close to all-time highs once again. The Dow Industrials are within spitting distance - less than 100 points - of the May 28 closing high of 15,409.39 as the Fed ponders what to do next, wrapping up their two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday. A policy decision is due out at 2:00 pm EDT, followed by a reading of the statement and press conference, by everybody's favorite "doctor," the dis-honorable Ben Bernanke, balding, bearded, wizened Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
With recent jawboning efforts pointing toward some tightening of Fed policy, the markets seem to be expecting no change in course for the every-easy Fed, and, while there's some nervousness over the wording of the statement, one might suspect that an even more important date - expiry of June options contracts on Friday - may be what's really driving the markets higher this week.
With baited breath we await the words offearless leader the Chairman. Can't wait.
Dow 15,318.23, +138.38 (0.91%)
NASDAQ 3,482.18, +30.05 (0.87%)
S&P 500 1,651.81, +12.77 (0.78%)
NYSE Composite 9,399.63, +61.74 (0.66%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,593,283,375
NYSE Volume 3,392,735,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4430-2051
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 327-76
WTI crude oil: 98.44, +0.67
Gold: 1,366.90, -16.20
Silver: 21.68, -0.081
The world of high finance, as demonstrated daily on the trading platforms, carries no such rules, other than simple casino-style paradigms. Make the right bet, at the right time, and you're a winner, after the various parties to the trade take their respective cuts, of course. The broker gets theirs, the government, another. It's more about timing and luck, especially these days, when nothing much matters other than the directionality of the various computer algos plying and playing the indices.
So it is that in stocks, you have situations like today, wherein three strikes equates to hitting a home run. Prior to the opening bell, three different sets of economic data were presented, and, against expectations, all were swings and misses, except maybe the seasonally-adjusted building permits, which could be weighed as a foul tip into the catcher's mitt, a strike by any other name.
First came the May CPI, up 0.1%, on expectation of a rise of 0.2%, well short of the Fed's annualized two percent inflation target. Strike one. Next up, housing starts, which banked 914K, well below expectations of 950K. Strike two. As mentioned above, building permits, which mean nothing other than somebody is planning to do something, like put up a fence or remodel a bathroom, were just under the expected annualized rate of 975K - at 974K. Strike three.
The market response was as expected, with deference and possibly blissful ignorance toward the headline numbers, straight up all day, a veritable home run, even as auto sales in Europe reached 20-year lows and an agent of our very own secret police, the NSA (No Such Agency, to wise guys) testified to congress that the wholly unconstitutional massive spying program that filters every American's phone calls, emails and internet activity, prevented the bombing of the NY Stock Exchange by some nefarious, insidious suspect known only as "the doctor" in 2008. The NSA says more than 50 terrorist plots were uncovered by their spy programs since 9/11/2001. Not even the best Hollywood script writers could have come up with a better narrative to deprive citizens of their fourth amendment rights. Those NSA guys hire only the best, you know.
Thus stocks ended the day close to all-time highs once again. The Dow Industrials are within spitting distance - less than 100 points - of the May 28 closing high of 15,409.39 as the Fed ponders what to do next, wrapping up their two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday. A policy decision is due out at 2:00 pm EDT, followed by a reading of the statement and press conference, by everybody's favorite "doctor," the dis-honorable Ben Bernanke, balding, bearded, wizened Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
With recent jawboning efforts pointing toward some tightening of Fed policy, the markets seem to be expecting no change in course for the every-easy Fed, and, while there's some nervousness over the wording of the statement, one might suspect that an even more important date - expiry of June options contracts on Friday - may be what's really driving the markets higher this week.
With baited breath we await the words of
Dow 15,318.23, +138.38 (0.91%)
NASDAQ 3,482.18, +30.05 (0.87%)
S&P 500 1,651.81, +12.77 (0.78%)
NYSE Composite 9,399.63, +61.74 (0.66%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,593,283,375
NYSE Volume 3,392,735,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4430-2051
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 327-76
WTI crude oil: 98.44, +0.67
Gold: 1,366.90, -16.20
Silver: 21.68, -0.081
Monday, June 3, 2013
Good News Is OK, but, Bad News is Awesome, Baby!
When the ISM Index posted a May reading of 49 today - showing contraction - there wasn't much reaction in the markets.
That release came at the same time - 10:00 am EDT - as the Construction Spending data, up 0.4%, though on expectations of a gain of 1.1%. For the general economy, neither data point would, could or should be considered good signs.
It took a while forinvestors speculators to figure it out, but, essentially, bad news for the general economy is really great news for stocks, because it suggests that the Federal Reserve, under the guidance of the spectacularly inept Ben Bernanke, will continue to goose stocks by supplying enormous amounts of stimulus via their bond-buying program without pausing, tapering or even considering slowing down at all.
When San Francisco Fed President John Williams said that tapering of the bond buying program could occur as early as this summer, he was shortly thereafter countered by Atlanta President James Lockhart who said the FOMC backs the stimulative measures.
After 2:00 pm EDT, the computers had it all figured out and sent stocks to the highs of the day into the close.
As long as the cheap (nearly free) money keeps flowing, the banks love it and will keep bidding up stocks to the sky and maybe beyond. One would tend to believe that in the event of a nuclear holocaust or the earth being hit by a giant-sized meteor, wiping out 90% of the global population, stocks would stage a rally that would make 16,000 on the Dow look like a spec in the rear-view mirror.
That's the twisted view that permeates the granite canyons of Wall Street, with no end in sight. For the bankers and their stock-trading units, the computer algos and the big bonuses, the Fed is the gift that just keeps on giving, depriving savers of any reasonable options and the worse the economy goes, the more money will be pumped into the global stock market Ponzi.
Too bad that gold and silver out-performed all of the major indices today, by a bunch. Besides that, the number of advancing issues just barely beat the decliners, and the new highs-new lows reading finally succumbed to the pressure and went negative for the first time in quite a while, a signal that should spook investors (how it affects computers is not well-known).
Whatever the case, it's all good, or bad, or, um, oh, forget it.
Dow 15,254.03, +138.46 (0.92%)
NASDAQ 3,465.37, +9.46 (0.27%)
S&P 500 1,640.42, +9.68 (0.59%)
NYSE Composite 9,356.14, +53.87 (0.58%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,965,356,375
NYSE Volume 4,495,515,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3409-3093
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 189-262
WTI crude oil: 93.45, +1.48
Gold: 1,411.90, +18.90
Silver: 22.72, +0.478
That release came at the same time - 10:00 am EDT - as the Construction Spending data, up 0.4%, though on expectations of a gain of 1.1%. For the general economy, neither data point would, could or should be considered good signs.
It took a while for
When San Francisco Fed President John Williams said that tapering of the bond buying program could occur as early as this summer, he was shortly thereafter countered by Atlanta President James Lockhart who said the FOMC backs the stimulative measures.
After 2:00 pm EDT, the computers had it all figured out and sent stocks to the highs of the day into the close.
As long as the cheap (nearly free) money keeps flowing, the banks love it and will keep bidding up stocks to the sky and maybe beyond. One would tend to believe that in the event of a nuclear holocaust or the earth being hit by a giant-sized meteor, wiping out 90% of the global population, stocks would stage a rally that would make 16,000 on the Dow look like a spec in the rear-view mirror.
That's the twisted view that permeates the granite canyons of Wall Street, with no end in sight. For the bankers and their stock-trading units, the computer algos and the big bonuses, the Fed is the gift that just keeps on giving, depriving savers of any reasonable options and the worse the economy goes, the more money will be pumped into the global stock market Ponzi.
Too bad that gold and silver out-performed all of the major indices today, by a bunch. Besides that, the number of advancing issues just barely beat the decliners, and the new highs-new lows reading finally succumbed to the pressure and went negative for the first time in quite a while, a signal that should spook investors (how it affects computers is not well-known).
Whatever the case, it's all good, or bad, or, um, oh, forget it.
Dow 15,254.03, +138.46 (0.92%)
NASDAQ 3,465.37, +9.46 (0.27%)
S&P 500 1,640.42, +9.68 (0.59%)
NYSE Composite 9,356.14, +53.87 (0.58%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,965,356,375
NYSE Volume 4,495,515,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3409-3093
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 189-262
WTI crude oil: 93.45, +1.48
Gold: 1,411.90, +18.90
Silver: 22.72, +0.478
Friday, May 31, 2013
Where's the Money? Sellers Swamp Market Late on Last Day of May
The only major index that finished up on the last day in May was the Nikkei, but, that index closed the month in negative territory - not by much - but that was a result the "unlimited" QE by the BOJ was supposed to make impossible.
Impossibility. It's a word tossed around until the impossible become possible, then probable, then actually happens. The Titanic sank. Buster Douglas beat Mike Tyson. Secretariat lost (I was there, at the whitney Stakes at Saratoga in 1973). Sometimes, the Yankees don't make the playoffs, let alone win the world series.
As impossible as it may seem for the Dow Industrials to reverse course in the final 2 1/2 weeks of May and lose all the momentum supplied by $85 billion a month in bond purchases by the Fed, it happened. Unlimited money printing, when al is said and done, may not be the panacea for free market capitalism. In fact, it may be just the opposite, and Mr. Market may finally have seen enough, though we probably won't know, at the earliest, until Friday of next week, when the June employment data is released in the BIS non-farm payroll figures.
If this is the beginning of the end for failed central bank policy-making, that may take longer to discern.
In any case, stocks meandered in the early going on Friday, before settling into selling mode at 2:00 pm EDT, and really accelerating in the final hour of trade. There doesn't need to be a reason, just a sentiment, which could be a reality: that the general world economy is slow at best, receding, at worst.
It could be technical, since the US indices were making new all-time highs on just about a daily basis until just about a week ago.
The culprit could be bonds, as the 10-year's spike to 2.18 intra-day had some investors and speculators re-examining the stocks versus bonds paradigm.
Or it could be Ben Bernanke, whose exit strategy from the relentless easy money will be to retire from the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve. We wish him... well, we're not going there.
In any case, stocks sold off to give the Dow and S&P back-to-back losing weeks for the first time this year, with possibly more to come. Volume on the day was quite robust, the A-D line was better than 4:1 losers over winners, and, no, the number of new 52-week lows did not exceed the new highs, but it was close.
To finish off what could be a watershed week, here's Dan Hicks and His Hot Licks performing part of today's title, "Where's the Money" from the 1972 album of the same name:
Dow 15,115.57, -208.96 (1.36%)
NASDAQ 3,455.91, -35.38 (1.01%)
S&P 500 1,630.74, -23.67 (1.43%)
NYSE Composite 9,302.27, -157.79 (1.67%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,879,071,500
NYSE Volume 4,366,197,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1358-5007
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 215-182
WTI crude oil: 91.97, -1.64
Gold: 1,392.60, -18.90
Silver: 22.24, -0.447
Impossibility. It's a word tossed around until the impossible become possible, then probable, then actually happens. The Titanic sank. Buster Douglas beat Mike Tyson. Secretariat lost (I was there, at the whitney Stakes at Saratoga in 1973). Sometimes, the Yankees don't make the playoffs, let alone win the world series.
As impossible as it may seem for the Dow Industrials to reverse course in the final 2 1/2 weeks of May and lose all the momentum supplied by $85 billion a month in bond purchases by the Fed, it happened. Unlimited money printing, when al is said and done, may not be the panacea for free market capitalism. In fact, it may be just the opposite, and Mr. Market may finally have seen enough, though we probably won't know, at the earliest, until Friday of next week, when the June employment data is released in the BIS non-farm payroll figures.
If this is the beginning of the end for failed central bank policy-making, that may take longer to discern.
In any case, stocks meandered in the early going on Friday, before settling into selling mode at 2:00 pm EDT, and really accelerating in the final hour of trade. There doesn't need to be a reason, just a sentiment, which could be a reality: that the general world economy is slow at best, receding, at worst.
It could be technical, since the US indices were making new all-time highs on just about a daily basis until just about a week ago.
The culprit could be bonds, as the 10-year's spike to 2.18 intra-day had some investors and speculators re-examining the stocks versus bonds paradigm.
Or it could be Ben Bernanke, whose exit strategy from the relentless easy money will be to retire from the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve. We wish him... well, we're not going there.
In any case, stocks sold off to give the Dow and S&P back-to-back losing weeks for the first time this year, with possibly more to come. Volume on the day was quite robust, the A-D line was better than 4:1 losers over winners, and, no, the number of new 52-week lows did not exceed the new highs, but it was close.
To finish off what could be a watershed week, here's Dan Hicks and His Hot Licks performing part of today's title, "Where's the Money" from the 1972 album of the same name:
Dow 15,115.57, -208.96 (1.36%)
NASDAQ 3,455.91, -35.38 (1.01%)
S&P 500 1,630.74, -23.67 (1.43%)
NYSE Composite 9,302.27, -157.79 (1.67%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,879,071,500
NYSE Volume 4,366,197,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1358-5007
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 215-182
WTI crude oil: 91.97, -1.64
Gold: 1,392.60, -18.90
Silver: 22.24, -0.447
Thursday, May 30, 2013
Global Equity-Ponzi Bubble Expands (except in Japan)
Apparently, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda just don't have the same financial panache as maybe Barack Obama and Fed head, Ben Bernanke.
If they did, their stock market - the Nikkei - would not have fallen five percent on Thursday, in a continuing downdraft in Japanese equities. Had they the skills of Bernanke, their stocks would have been up, like in the US, where the major averages shrugged off Wednesday's declines and rallied throughout the session.
Then again, maybe the Japanese have something up their sleeve, issuing new foreign exchange margin trading rules within the final hour of trading in New York, which prompted the markets - especially the Dow Industrials - to discard most of the gains on the day and cause the Dollar/Yen carry trade to slip into the red.
In today's economic landscape, controlled almost entirely by central banks, these kinds of things aren't supposed to happen. Stocks are always supposed to go up, the Yen must fall against the mighty US dollar (and all other currencies), bonds stabilize at historical low levels and unicorns puke up skittles and gold nuggets.
Maybe it's that last part - those gold nuggets - that have everybody nervous. Everyone knows that the spot, or paper, or futures gold price has nothing to do with the actual price of gold in physical terms and this disconnect, though held well below the surface purposely, because, in the words of the Great Bernanke, gold is not money and is something of an "ancient relic" in financial terms.
Well, that's just too bad, because gold has always been money, along with silver, and the price one pays for actual physical metal has become disjointed from all those other artificial prices, none of which entitles the holders of some precious scrip to actual, physical metal, and that's all that really counts in the end.
A promise to buy gold or silver or to have gold or silver or to receive gold or silver is not the same as actually holding it in one's possession.
In the long run, gold and silver will always be money. All the paper "equivalents" and substitutes will be about as worthless as... well, pieces of paper.
The wheels of the global Ponzi train to Zimbabwe are about to come off and the differences between that useless spot price and the real price of gold and silver are acting as the catalysts. When the markets finally collapse, which they - by mathematical certainty - must, fingers will be pointed everywhere: at the Fed, at the government, at the rich, at the poor, at Social Security, at China. But gold and silver will be blameless because, THEY ARE MONEY, and they will forever be money, despite Mr. Bernanke's views on the subject.
Dow 15,324.53, +21.73 (0.14%)
NASDAQ 3,491.30, +23.78 (0.69%)
S&P 500 1,654.41, +6.05 (0.37%)
NYSE Composite 9,460.05, +37.56 (0.40%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,746,768,625
NYSE Volume 3,812,669,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4070-2380
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 295-80
WTI crude oil: 93.61, +0.48
Gold: 1,411.50, +20.20
Silver: 22.69, +0.237
If they did, their stock market - the Nikkei - would not have fallen five percent on Thursday, in a continuing downdraft in Japanese equities. Had they the skills of Bernanke, their stocks would have been up, like in the US, where the major averages shrugged off Wednesday's declines and rallied throughout the session.
Then again, maybe the Japanese have something up their sleeve, issuing new foreign exchange margin trading rules within the final hour of trading in New York, which prompted the markets - especially the Dow Industrials - to discard most of the gains on the day and cause the Dollar/Yen carry trade to slip into the red.
In today's economic landscape, controlled almost entirely by central banks, these kinds of things aren't supposed to happen. Stocks are always supposed to go up, the Yen must fall against the mighty US dollar (and all other currencies), bonds stabilize at historical low levels and unicorns puke up skittles and gold nuggets.
Maybe it's that last part - those gold nuggets - that have everybody nervous. Everyone knows that the spot, or paper, or futures gold price has nothing to do with the actual price of gold in physical terms and this disconnect, though held well below the surface purposely, because, in the words of the Great Bernanke, gold is not money and is something of an "ancient relic" in financial terms.
Well, that's just too bad, because gold has always been money, along with silver, and the price one pays for actual physical metal has become disjointed from all those other artificial prices, none of which entitles the holders of some precious scrip to actual, physical metal, and that's all that really counts in the end.
A promise to buy gold or silver or to have gold or silver or to receive gold or silver is not the same as actually holding it in one's possession.
In the long run, gold and silver will always be money. All the paper "equivalents" and substitutes will be about as worthless as... well, pieces of paper.
The wheels of the global Ponzi train to Zimbabwe are about to come off and the differences between that useless spot price and the real price of gold and silver are acting as the catalysts. When the markets finally collapse, which they - by mathematical certainty - must, fingers will be pointed everywhere: at the Fed, at the government, at the rich, at the poor, at Social Security, at China. But gold and silver will be blameless because, THEY ARE MONEY, and they will forever be money, despite Mr. Bernanke's views on the subject.
Dow 15,324.53, +21.73 (0.14%)
NASDAQ 3,491.30, +23.78 (0.69%)
S&P 500 1,654.41, +6.05 (0.37%)
NYSE Composite 9,460.05, +37.56 (0.40%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,746,768,625
NYSE Volume 3,812,669,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4070-2380
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 295-80
WTI crude oil: 93.61, +0.48
Gold: 1,411.50, +20.20
Silver: 22.69, +0.237
Wednesday, May 22, 2013
Market Reverses Following Fed Minutes Release
The markets opened with ebullience after NY Fed President Bill Dudley's comments suggested that the Federal Reserve was not considering any major policy changes, with the Dow reaching the highs of the day - the Dow gaining 155 points - between 10:00 and 11:00 am EDT.
All of a sudden, when Fed Chairman, speaking before the congressional Joint Economic Committee, didn't absolutely rule out that the Fed could begin tapering bond purchases before Labor Day, stocks took an abrupt U-turn, but stabilized in positive territory.
Upon the release of minutes from the Fed's April policy meeting, however, things began to get ugly. The minutes revealed that some members of the FOMC thought they should be tapering - or easing - right away or as early as their June meeting, considering the effects of the program and how the economy seemed to have been improving.
That had a chilling effect on the trading floor, as volume picked up, and stock prices headed south in one of the most volatile sessions in some time - a full 276-point round-trip on the Dow industrials. The other major indices followed suit and actually recorded worse losses, on a percentage basis.
Today's key reversal was a triple-engulfing variety, eclipsing the highs and lows of the three previous sessions, and that, to chartists everywhere, screams of directional bias, in this case, to the downside.
Whether or not traditional chart theory will hold water in this artificial liquidity environment is anybody's guess, because stocks have shown recently an uncanny ability to disregard any kind of bad news, though this kind of news - that the Fed might be pulling back the punch bowl from the drunken, leveraged party that is Wall Street - is of a different nature altogether.
As far as bull and bear markets are concerned, we're still a far cry from calling a turn, though tomorrow, the bull's reign will be entering its 51st month and stocks have just exhibited the kind of explosive move to the upside that is indicative of final tops. The coming days, weeks and months will be critical if only to ascertain whether this move is a one-day event, the beginning of a short-term correction or the start of a bear market.
Key factors to consider in today's movement were volume - one of the highest of the year - the advance-decline line and how meaningfully traders will take the mixed messages from various Fed officials.
Another insight is how fruitless the markets have become, when the only pertinent news concerns whether or not the Fed will keep accommodating the broken banks and brokerages with historical low interest rates, which incidentally, shot higher today, the 10-year breaking through the 2.0% yield mark.
Even more important is whether the Fed is actually planning to take its foot off the gas soon or is blowing more hot air, i.e., jawboning the market.
Considering the relative performance of the US economy (sluggish at best) and the consequences of tightening policy even a little bit from this unprecedentedly-accommodative posture it might be best to take a wait-and-see attitude toward the markets in general. Rather than an abrupt, decisive move to the downside (though it could very well happen), some sideways movements in the markets would seem to make more sense, at least until there is clarity on Fed policy, along with a host of other potential market-moving issues.
Dow 15,307.17, -80.41 (0.52%)
NASDAQ 3,463.30, -38.82 (1.11%)
S&P 500 1,655.35, -13.81 (0.83%)
NYSE Composite 9,501.99, -96.28 (1.00%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,058,095,625
NYSE Volume 4,350,662,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1555-4990
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 753-35
WTI crude oil: 94.28, -1.90
Gold: 1,367.40, -10.20
Silver: 22.47, +0.017
All of a sudden, when Fed Chairman, speaking before the congressional Joint Economic Committee, didn't absolutely rule out that the Fed could begin tapering bond purchases before Labor Day, stocks took an abrupt U-turn, but stabilized in positive territory.
Upon the release of minutes from the Fed's April policy meeting, however, things began to get ugly. The minutes revealed that some members of the FOMC thought they should be tapering - or easing - right away or as early as their June meeting, considering the effects of the program and how the economy seemed to have been improving.
That had a chilling effect on the trading floor, as volume picked up, and stock prices headed south in one of the most volatile sessions in some time - a full 276-point round-trip on the Dow industrials. The other major indices followed suit and actually recorded worse losses, on a percentage basis.
Today's key reversal was a triple-engulfing variety, eclipsing the highs and lows of the three previous sessions, and that, to chartists everywhere, screams of directional bias, in this case, to the downside.
Whether or not traditional chart theory will hold water in this artificial liquidity environment is anybody's guess, because stocks have shown recently an uncanny ability to disregard any kind of bad news, though this kind of news - that the Fed might be pulling back the punch bowl from the drunken, leveraged party that is Wall Street - is of a different nature altogether.
As far as bull and bear markets are concerned, we're still a far cry from calling a turn, though tomorrow, the bull's reign will be entering its 51st month and stocks have just exhibited the kind of explosive move to the upside that is indicative of final tops. The coming days, weeks and months will be critical if only to ascertain whether this move is a one-day event, the beginning of a short-term correction or the start of a bear market.
Key factors to consider in today's movement were volume - one of the highest of the year - the advance-decline line and how meaningfully traders will take the mixed messages from various Fed officials.
Another insight is how fruitless the markets have become, when the only pertinent news concerns whether or not the Fed will keep accommodating the broken banks and brokerages with historical low interest rates, which incidentally, shot higher today, the 10-year breaking through the 2.0% yield mark.
Even more important is whether the Fed is actually planning to take its foot off the gas soon or is blowing more hot air, i.e., jawboning the market.
Considering the relative performance of the US economy (sluggish at best) and the consequences of tightening policy even a little bit from this unprecedentedly-accommodative posture it might be best to take a wait-and-see attitude toward the markets in general. Rather than an abrupt, decisive move to the downside (though it could very well happen), some sideways movements in the markets would seem to make more sense, at least until there is clarity on Fed policy, along with a host of other potential market-moving issues.
Dow 15,307.17, -80.41 (0.52%)
NASDAQ 3,463.30, -38.82 (1.11%)
S&P 500 1,655.35, -13.81 (0.83%)
NYSE Composite 9,501.99, -96.28 (1.00%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,058,095,625
NYSE Volume 4,350,662,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1555-4990
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 753-35
WTI crude oil: 94.28, -1.90
Gold: 1,367.40, -10.20
Silver: 22.47, +0.017
Thursday, May 9, 2013
Shockingly, Stocks Lose Ground
Well, that didn't take long.
Yesterday, in a pique of exasperation over levitating equity markets trading on Fed liquidity rather than fundamentals (it's only been this way for four years, as of today), I promised no further commentary until the markets posted a negative session.
And, presto, there it is, though, as down days are measured, this one wasn't much of anything.
The rationale behind not commenting was due to recent market activity, in a framework in which nearly all economic data has been sour or outright bad. Markets have come to ignore reality "on the ground," in favor of a more optimistic mindset. Beginning April 18, the Dow Industrials had posted gains 13 of the past 14 days, prior to today. Ignorance may be blissful, but making money off it seems somehow wrong.
At least the range was a little better than it has been. The Dow was down nearly sixty points at its nadir, and up about 41 at the peak, so the range was about 100 points, top to bottom, not exactly what one might call volatile, being less than one percent, but better than it has been, suggesting that maybe a few people are getting a little skittish about where this is all heading.
That place may be Nirvana to some, but from the looks of things on Main Street, USA, there is scarcely a resemblance to the unbridled euphoria that infects Wall Street every time they ring the opening bell. Traders have been - and likely will be - making money hand over fist on the upside, without having to bother checking fundamentals, scouring stocks for the best picks nor doing intensive research. Simply playing the indices have brought gains of great magnitude, and leveraging... well, it doesn't get much better than that.
Technicians may want to keep an eye on the Dow Transports (^DJT), as they confirmed the new highs yesterday, but took quite a tumble of some 72 points today (1.13%). While the transportation index may be back-loading the gains on the Industrials, it could also be front-running and telegraphing a decline.
But, of course, this is just one day, and we all know that tonight Ben Bernanke will crank up the printing press once again and tomorrow will be all roses, unicorns and skittles.
That may sound sarcastic, because it is.
Printing money with nothing to back it except empty promises always leads to economic catastrophe.
Every time, and this time is no different.
Dow 15,082.62, -22.50 (0.15%)
NASDAQ 3,409.17, -4.10 (0.12%)
S&P 500 1,626.67, -6.02 (0.37%)
NYSE Composite 9,401.05, -62.26 (0.66%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,746,976,625
NYSE Volume 3,482,779,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2358-4009
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 588-34
WTI crude oil: 96.39, -0.23
Gold: 1,468.60, -5.10
Silver: 23.91, -0.016
Yesterday, in a pique of exasperation over levitating equity markets trading on Fed liquidity rather than fundamentals (it's only been this way for four years, as of today), I promised no further commentary until the markets posted a negative session.
And, presto, there it is, though, as down days are measured, this one wasn't much of anything.
The rationale behind not commenting was due to recent market activity, in a framework in which nearly all economic data has been sour or outright bad. Markets have come to ignore reality "on the ground," in favor of a more optimistic mindset. Beginning April 18, the Dow Industrials had posted gains 13 of the past 14 days, prior to today. Ignorance may be blissful, but making money off it seems somehow wrong.
At least the range was a little better than it has been. The Dow was down nearly sixty points at its nadir, and up about 41 at the peak, so the range was about 100 points, top to bottom, not exactly what one might call volatile, being less than one percent, but better than it has been, suggesting that maybe a few people are getting a little skittish about where this is all heading.
That place may be Nirvana to some, but from the looks of things on Main Street, USA, there is scarcely a resemblance to the unbridled euphoria that infects Wall Street every time they ring the opening bell. Traders have been - and likely will be - making money hand over fist on the upside, without having to bother checking fundamentals, scouring stocks for the best picks nor doing intensive research. Simply playing the indices have brought gains of great magnitude, and leveraging... well, it doesn't get much better than that.
Technicians may want to keep an eye on the Dow Transports (^DJT), as they confirmed the new highs yesterday, but took quite a tumble of some 72 points today (1.13%). While the transportation index may be back-loading the gains on the Industrials, it could also be front-running and telegraphing a decline.
But, of course, this is just one day, and we all know that tonight Ben Bernanke will crank up the printing press once again and tomorrow will be all roses, unicorns and skittles.
That may sound sarcastic, because it is.
Printing money with nothing to back it except empty promises always leads to economic catastrophe.
Every time, and this time is no different.
Dow 15,082.62, -22.50 (0.15%)
NASDAQ 3,409.17, -4.10 (0.12%)
S&P 500 1,626.67, -6.02 (0.37%)
NYSE Composite 9,401.05, -62.26 (0.66%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,746,976,625
NYSE Volume 3,482,779,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2358-4009
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 588-34
WTI crude oil: 96.39, -0.23
Gold: 1,468.60, -5.10
Silver: 23.91, -0.016
Thursday, May 2, 2013
Markets Say 'Never Mind' about Wednesday's Declines
In a real-life parody of Gilda Radner's Saturday Night Live character, Emily Litella, stocks, commodities, everything simply took no heed of Wednesday's steep declines and said, "ever mind," as though they had been mistaken about the direction of the economy, the advisement from the Fed's FOMC, or something, and thus, virtually erased all of the bad from the day before.
Not to say that these markets are fickle, but there happens to be a very good explanation why all risk assets were hammered lower the previous session: no TOMO.
TOMO stands for Temporary Open Market Operations (as opposed to POMO, which are Permanent operations), the facility by which the Fed creates new money and promptly hands it over to the primary dealers, and, supposedly, other good friends of Uncle Ben Bernanke - he of the big heart - and the money is put to work goosing the prices of everything that isn't glued down, that being mostly stocks, but also, commodities.
In order to keep up with the game, the Fed has published a list of dates and amounts for the purchase of Treasuries, here. In may the Fed will purchase $44 billion worth of treasuries because they bought a billion too many last month ($46 billion) There is a separate list elsewhere on their site for Agency-backed securities purchases which amount to roughly $40 billion per month.
So, save those dates! Those are not days to go short the market, but they are certainly the ones you'll want to be long stocks, because the Fed is supplying the capital.
Sometimes, the reality is so stupid and obvious one has to just wonder how the whole system hasn't blown up already.
Dow 14,831.58, +130.63 (0.89%)
NASDAQ 3,340.62, +41.49 (1.26%)
S&P 500 1,597.59, +14.89 (0.94%)
NYSE Composite 9,246.72, +70.93 (0.77%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,715,556,375
NYSE Volume 3,686,534,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4856-1594
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 395-46
WTI crude oil: 93.99, +2.96
Gold: 1,467.60, +21.40
Silver: 23.83, +0.487
Not to say that these markets are fickle, but there happens to be a very good explanation why all risk assets were hammered lower the previous session: no TOMO.
TOMO stands for Temporary Open Market Operations (as opposed to POMO, which are Permanent operations), the facility by which the Fed creates new money and promptly hands it over to the primary dealers, and, supposedly, other good friends of Uncle Ben Bernanke - he of the big heart - and the money is put to work goosing the prices of everything that isn't glued down, that being mostly stocks, but also, commodities.
In order to keep up with the game, the Fed has published a list of dates and amounts for the purchase of Treasuries, here. In may the Fed will purchase $44 billion worth of treasuries because they bought a billion too many last month ($46 billion) There is a separate list elsewhere on their site for Agency-backed securities purchases which amount to roughly $40 billion per month.
So, save those dates! Those are not days to go short the market, but they are certainly the ones you'll want to be long stocks, because the Fed is supplying the capital.
Sometimes, the reality is so stupid and obvious one has to just wonder how the whole system hasn't blown up already.
Dow 14,831.58, +130.63 (0.89%)
NASDAQ 3,340.62, +41.49 (1.26%)
S&P 500 1,597.59, +14.89 (0.94%)
NYSE Composite 9,246.72, +70.93 (0.77%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,715,556,375
NYSE Volume 3,686,534,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4856-1594
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 395-46
WTI crude oil: 93.99, +2.96
Gold: 1,467.60, +21.40
Silver: 23.83, +0.487
Friday, April 26, 2013
Stocks End Week on Flat Note after 1Q GDP Miss
Stocks were in a general state of dizziness following the release of first quarter GDP, expected to come in at three percent (dreamers), but instead posted a disappointing 2.5%, most of it (2.24%) fueled by personal consumption expenditures (of which the majority was food, energy and clothing). Imports and Government were drags, showing declines of 0.9% and 0.8% respectively.
Those were offset by PCE, exports (0.4%), inventories (1.03%) and fixed investment (0.58%).
Noting that last number, thank Obamacare and general economic malaise for the lack of CapEx spending, which continues to disappoint and without which the USA will never escape the dregs of this low-growth environment. For the past ten quarters, GDP has grown at an annual rate of 1.9%. With inflation somewhere between two and four percent and the US population growth rate just a touch under one percent, the US economy is operating at stall speed.
With those numbers in tow, it was surprising that stocks did not decline sharply, but, as we know all too well, Wall Street believes that Bernanke has their back, to the tune of $85 billion in freshly minted cash every month.
Enjoy the weekend, because sooner or later, all the BS money-printing is going to bite the economy hard. We're doomed.
Dow 14,712.55, +11.75 (0.08%)
NASDAQ 3,279.26, -10.73 (0.33%)
S&P 500 1,582.24, -2.92 (0.18%)
NYSE Composite 9,169.89, -18.96 (0.21%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,599,216,625
NYSE Volume 3,436,212,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2495-3867
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 256-36
WTI crude oil: 93.00, -0.64
Gold: 1,453.60, -8.40
Silver: 23.76, -0.382
Those were offset by PCE, exports (0.4%), inventories (1.03%) and fixed investment (0.58%).
Noting that last number, thank Obamacare and general economic malaise for the lack of CapEx spending, which continues to disappoint and without which the USA will never escape the dregs of this low-growth environment. For the past ten quarters, GDP has grown at an annual rate of 1.9%. With inflation somewhere between two and four percent and the US population growth rate just a touch under one percent, the US economy is operating at stall speed.
With those numbers in tow, it was surprising that stocks did not decline sharply, but, as we know all too well, Wall Street believes that Bernanke has their back, to the tune of $85 billion in freshly minted cash every month.
Enjoy the weekend, because sooner or later, all the BS money-printing is going to bite the economy hard. We're doomed.
Dow 14,712.55, +11.75 (0.08%)
NASDAQ 3,279.26, -10.73 (0.33%)
S&P 500 1,582.24, -2.92 (0.18%)
NYSE Composite 9,169.89, -18.96 (0.21%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,599,216,625
NYSE Volume 3,436,212,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2495-3867
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 256-36
WTI crude oil: 93.00, -0.64
Gold: 1,453.60, -8.40
Silver: 23.76, -0.382
Wednesday, April 17, 2013
Wall Street is Becoming a Falling Stock Zone
Is anyone other than the Fed governors and CNBC hosts convinced that ZIRP and QE aren't exactly working?
For the second day out of the past three, stocks suffered severe, across-the-board losses, extending the pullback that began on Friday.
The worst performing index has been the NASDAQ, which has dropped nearly 100 points since the close on Thursday (1300.18).
Dow stocks, predominated by high-yielding, dividend-producing income companies - the creme de la creme - have fared better, though the index is still down 247 points and there are still two days remaining in the trading week.
While the recent moves may be described as a precursor of the time-honored tradition of "sell in May and stay away," the directionality is troubling, because the US is supposed to be in a recovery.
Not helping matters much are the oddities coming out of Boston in the aftermath of Monday's bomb strikes, and Washington, where packages containing ricin have been showing up with increasing frequency.
Larger issues loom in Europe, where data continues to deteriorate, even in Germany, thought to be the bastion of strength.
Corporate earnings have been less-than-encouraging as well. Today's numbers from Bank of America (BAC) were notably weak, spurring the drop at the opening bell.
Still, the losses have not reached even three percent, so it may well be too early to make a call that direction has changed, though, as has been pointed out repeatedly here and elsewhere, bull markets do not last forever, and this one is heading into its 50th month.
Key data this week has included a wicked drop in the Empire State manufacturing index, from 9.2 to 3.1, a negative reading (-0.2) on CPI for March and a drop-off in building permits, suggesting that the housing sector may not be quite as healthy as the pundits have been preaching.
Volume on the day was particularly heavy, a signal not lost on both bulls and bears; decliners outpaced advancing issues four-to-one; new lows, for the first time this year, superseded new highs, and by a rather large amount, another key metric.
After the bell, both American Express (AXP) and eBay (EBAY) missed gross revenue targets and just barely beat (each by a penny) the per share earnings forecasts.
Commodities continue to be beaten down as deflationary forces appear to be winning at the present time. Depending upon which side you butter your bread, that may be good or bad news.
There is good news in oil, which hit a multi-month low. If prices for crude continue to depress and remain so, it won't be long before driving Americans finally get a break at the gas pump.
Gold and silver continue to be on sale, though shortages in physical metal are widespread and premiums over spot prices are ranging anywhere from 16 to 35 percent. If that condition persists, forget the gold and silver ETFs, they will eventually break down as the backers are unable to deliver physical metal on contracts.
LATE BREAKING: Senate votes down gun control "compromise" measure. Long live the 2nd amendment!
and...
Europe's leading parliamentarian, Nigel Farage:
Dow 14,618.59, -138.19 (0.94%)
NASDAQ 3,204.67, -59.96 (1.84%)
S&P 500 1,552.01, -22.56 (1.43%)
NYSE Composite 8,955.47, -130.96 (1.44%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,889,783,125
NYSE Volume 4,579,846,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1382-5083
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 87-178 (this could be huge!)
WTI crude oil: 86.68, -2.04
Gold: 1,373.10, -14.30
Silver: 23.24, -0.383
For the second day out of the past three, stocks suffered severe, across-the-board losses, extending the pullback that began on Friday.
The worst performing index has been the NASDAQ, which has dropped nearly 100 points since the close on Thursday (1300.18).
Dow stocks, predominated by high-yielding, dividend-producing income companies - the creme de la creme - have fared better, though the index is still down 247 points and there are still two days remaining in the trading week.
While the recent moves may be described as a precursor of the time-honored tradition of "sell in May and stay away," the directionality is troubling, because the US is supposed to be in a recovery.
Not helping matters much are the oddities coming out of Boston in the aftermath of Monday's bomb strikes, and Washington, where packages containing ricin have been showing up with increasing frequency.
Larger issues loom in Europe, where data continues to deteriorate, even in Germany, thought to be the bastion of strength.
Corporate earnings have been less-than-encouraging as well. Today's numbers from Bank of America (BAC) were notably weak, spurring the drop at the opening bell.
Still, the losses have not reached even three percent, so it may well be too early to make a call that direction has changed, though, as has been pointed out repeatedly here and elsewhere, bull markets do not last forever, and this one is heading into its 50th month.
Key data this week has included a wicked drop in the Empire State manufacturing index, from 9.2 to 3.1, a negative reading (-0.2) on CPI for March and a drop-off in building permits, suggesting that the housing sector may not be quite as healthy as the pundits have been preaching.
Volume on the day was particularly heavy, a signal not lost on both bulls and bears; decliners outpaced advancing issues four-to-one; new lows, for the first time this year, superseded new highs, and by a rather large amount, another key metric.
After the bell, both American Express (AXP) and eBay (EBAY) missed gross revenue targets and just barely beat (each by a penny) the per share earnings forecasts.
Commodities continue to be beaten down as deflationary forces appear to be winning at the present time. Depending upon which side you butter your bread, that may be good or bad news.
There is good news in oil, which hit a multi-month low. If prices for crude continue to depress and remain so, it won't be long before driving Americans finally get a break at the gas pump.
Gold and silver continue to be on sale, though shortages in physical metal are widespread and premiums over spot prices are ranging anywhere from 16 to 35 percent. If that condition persists, forget the gold and silver ETFs, they will eventually break down as the backers are unable to deliver physical metal on contracts.
LATE BREAKING: Senate votes down gun control "compromise" measure. Long live the 2nd amendment!
and...
Europe's leading parliamentarian, Nigel Farage:
Dow 14,618.59, -138.19 (0.94%)
NASDAQ 3,204.67, -59.96 (1.84%)
S&P 500 1,552.01, -22.56 (1.43%)
NYSE Composite 8,955.47, -130.96 (1.44%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,889,783,125
NYSE Volume 4,579,846,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1382-5083
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 87-178 (this could be huge!)
WTI crude oil: 86.68, -2.04
Gold: 1,373.10, -14.30
Silver: 23.24, -0.383
Thursday, April 4, 2013
Money, Money Everywhere, But Not a Buck to Lend
The world is awash in liquidity, but nobody seems to have any money.
At least that is the case for the 90% of Americans - and probably 95% of the rest of the world - that don't have access to easy money from central banks around the world.
Consider today's action by the Bank of Japan's new finance minister Haruhiko Kuroda, pladging unprecedented monetary stimulus by doubling Japan's central bank balance sheet by the end of 2014 through outright purchases of government bonds, ranging anywhere from short term notes to the 40-year Japanese bond.
The move puts Japan on a par with the mad money printer, Ben Bernanke, and in the same camp as the ECB's Mario Draghi, who vowed last year to do anything possible to save the Euro.
Such policies, like the Fed's $85 billion monthly purchases of treasuries and MBS (near-worthless), would have been unheard of just ten years ago, but today they are accepted as matter-of-fact as the bank heads continue trying to prop up zombie banks that have been bankrupt since 2008 (1992 in Japan's case) and governments which made promises to their people in the form of health care and retirement benefits that are slowly but surely bankrupting their entire nations.
These policies are doomed to fail, as they inflate various economies, crushing the purchasing power of the average citizen to a point at which many are priced out of mere survival. Ergo, the 49 million Americans receiving food stamps, unprecedented numbers on disability or welfare, programs which strip away the dignity of the individual, making them wards of the state.
Governments worldwide cannot balance their budgets due to these absurd entitlement programs, yet common people go about their business like the legendary "Annie Hall," tripping through life, dismissing any pitfalls with a cheery "la-dee-da."
Wall Street and the markets in Japan, London and Europe are no different. Obvious economic headwinds, like today's massive miss on first time unemployment claims (385,000 on expectations of 345K) are simply shrugged off as investors have no other place to put money to work but in risky stocks, though the correct strategy in times of impending hyper-inflation would be to park in cash and tangible assets such as land, gold, silver and productive machinery, because today's prices will look like peanuts compared to what people will be paying once the inflation tiger is unleashed.
Thus far, central bankers have been lucky. Inflation hasn't been all that ferocious, though spikes in oil, gas, food and other commodities have already been notable. Keeping inflation in line has been the stagnant to negative growth of incomes. With less money, people simply can't afford to splurge, and if less money is chasing the same amount of goods, prices will remain relatively stable, though that certainly cannot be guaranteed with the incredible amount of liquidity being force-fed into the system.
Also aiding their efforts is the fact that most of the inflation has been in stocks, which are ridiculously priced. All this may be coming to an abrupt ending with first quarter earnings reports. Many companies are just barely making their estimates even though the bar continues to be lowered. At some point, investors will demand more, along the lines of 15% year-over-year earnings acceleration, higher dividends and better margins, all the things a healthy market economy would normally expect.
Earnings begin trickling out on Monday, but before that, Friday's non-farm payroll report for March needs to be presented, and, from the looks of the close today, nobody is really sweating that.
After the last three weeks of unemployment figures, however, maybe they should.
Dow 14,606.11, +55.76 (0.38%)
NASDAQ 3,224.98, +6.38 (0.20%)
S&P 500 1,559.98, +6.29 (0.40%)
NYSE Composite 9,027.83, +44.44 (0.49%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,470,237,625
NYSE Volume 3,566,827,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4003-2357
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 123-65
WTI crude oil: 93.26, -1.19
Gold: 1,552.40, -1.10
Silver: 26.77, -0.03
At least that is the case for the 90% of Americans - and probably 95% of the rest of the world - that don't have access to easy money from central banks around the world.
Consider today's action by the Bank of Japan's new finance minister Haruhiko Kuroda, pladging unprecedented monetary stimulus by doubling Japan's central bank balance sheet by the end of 2014 through outright purchases of government bonds, ranging anywhere from short term notes to the 40-year Japanese bond.
The move puts Japan on a par with the mad money printer, Ben Bernanke, and in the same camp as the ECB's Mario Draghi, who vowed last year to do anything possible to save the Euro.
Such policies, like the Fed's $85 billion monthly purchases of treasuries and MBS (near-worthless), would have been unheard of just ten years ago, but today they are accepted as matter-of-fact as the bank heads continue trying to prop up zombie banks that have been bankrupt since 2008 (1992 in Japan's case) and governments which made promises to their people in the form of health care and retirement benefits that are slowly but surely bankrupting their entire nations.
These policies are doomed to fail, as they inflate various economies, crushing the purchasing power of the average citizen to a point at which many are priced out of mere survival. Ergo, the 49 million Americans receiving food stamps, unprecedented numbers on disability or welfare, programs which strip away the dignity of the individual, making them wards of the state.
Governments worldwide cannot balance their budgets due to these absurd entitlement programs, yet common people go about their business like the legendary "Annie Hall," tripping through life, dismissing any pitfalls with a cheery "la-dee-da."
Wall Street and the markets in Japan, London and Europe are no different. Obvious economic headwinds, like today's massive miss on first time unemployment claims (385,000 on expectations of 345K) are simply shrugged off as investors have no other place to put money to work but in risky stocks, though the correct strategy in times of impending hyper-inflation would be to park in cash and tangible assets such as land, gold, silver and productive machinery, because today's prices will look like peanuts compared to what people will be paying once the inflation tiger is unleashed.
Thus far, central bankers have been lucky. Inflation hasn't been all that ferocious, though spikes in oil, gas, food and other commodities have already been notable. Keeping inflation in line has been the stagnant to negative growth of incomes. With less money, people simply can't afford to splurge, and if less money is chasing the same amount of goods, prices will remain relatively stable, though that certainly cannot be guaranteed with the incredible amount of liquidity being force-fed into the system.
Also aiding their efforts is the fact that most of the inflation has been in stocks, which are ridiculously priced. All this may be coming to an abrupt ending with first quarter earnings reports. Many companies are just barely making their estimates even though the bar continues to be lowered. At some point, investors will demand more, along the lines of 15% year-over-year earnings acceleration, higher dividends and better margins, all the things a healthy market economy would normally expect.
Earnings begin trickling out on Monday, but before that, Friday's non-farm payroll report for March needs to be presented, and, from the looks of the close today, nobody is really sweating that.
After the last three weeks of unemployment figures, however, maybe they should.
Dow 14,606.11, +55.76 (0.38%)
NASDAQ 3,224.98, +6.38 (0.20%)
S&P 500 1,559.98, +6.29 (0.40%)
NYSE Composite 9,027.83, +44.44 (0.49%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,470,237,625
NYSE Volume 3,566,827,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4003-2357
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 123-65
WTI crude oil: 93.26, -1.19
Gold: 1,552.40, -1.10
Silver: 26.77, -0.03
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
Dow Gains 9th Straight Day to Another Record High
For the first time since November, 1996, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen for nine sessions in a row, the last seven of which made new record closing highs.
Not that it matters at all to ordinary investors (whatever that term means today), but the referenced date was during one of the market's greatest bull runs of all time and just prior to the famous "irrational exuberance" speech then-chairman Alan Greenspan gave just a month later, warning that the markets were overheating.
The chances of current chairman Ben Bernanke saying something similar are essentially nil. There's a better chance that Mr. Bernanke would fan, rather than cool, the flames of capitalism in coming months. It's simply not in the cards for the Fed to change course any time soon.
Today's gains were slim, with a range and volume that were slimmer by comparison. The Dow traded in a 50-point span from top to bottom, and volume, which has been non-existent throughout the current rally, was decidedly dull.
For all the talk of recovery and new highs, this leg of the rally has been noticeably dull and unappreciated.
But, that's where we are, QE, ZIRP and all the jolly talk aside.
The main catalyst for today's gains was a surprising jump in consumer spending for February, up 1.1%, far ahead of projections and the best reading in five months.
But, judging by the tepid response, this rally seems to be nearly out of gas. Not to worry, however, as any setback in stocks will almost immediately be washed away by some new rally, likely due to massive injections of liquidity by the Federal Reserve.
While the current prices of stocks and levels of the major indices may be irrational, there's little exuberance to be found anywhere.
Dow 14,455.28, +5.22 (0.04%)
NASDAQ 3,245.12, +2.80 (0.09%)
S&P 500 1,554.52, +2.04 (0.13%)
NYSE Composite 9,057.00, +2.96 (0.03%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,552,400,375
NYSE Volume 3,327,864,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3538-2872
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 386-31
WTI crude oil: 92.52, -0.02
Gold: 1,588.40, -3.30
Silver: 28.96, -0.213
Not that it matters at all to ordinary investors (whatever that term means today), but the referenced date was during one of the market's greatest bull runs of all time and just prior to the famous "irrational exuberance" speech then-chairman Alan Greenspan gave just a month later, warning that the markets were overheating.
The chances of current chairman Ben Bernanke saying something similar are essentially nil. There's a better chance that Mr. Bernanke would fan, rather than cool, the flames of capitalism in coming months. It's simply not in the cards for the Fed to change course any time soon.
Today's gains were slim, with a range and volume that were slimmer by comparison. The Dow traded in a 50-point span from top to bottom, and volume, which has been non-existent throughout the current rally, was decidedly dull.
For all the talk of recovery and new highs, this leg of the rally has been noticeably dull and unappreciated.
But, that's where we are, QE, ZIRP and all the jolly talk aside.
The main catalyst for today's gains was a surprising jump in consumer spending for February, up 1.1%, far ahead of projections and the best reading in five months.
But, judging by the tepid response, this rally seems to be nearly out of gas. Not to worry, however, as any setback in stocks will almost immediately be washed away by some new rally, likely due to massive injections of liquidity by the Federal Reserve.
While the current prices of stocks and levels of the major indices may be irrational, there's little exuberance to be found anywhere.
Dow 14,455.28, +5.22 (0.04%)
NASDAQ 3,245.12, +2.80 (0.09%)
S&P 500 1,554.52, +2.04 (0.13%)
NYSE Composite 9,057.00, +2.96 (0.03%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,552,400,375
NYSE Volume 3,327,864,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3538-2872
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 386-31
WTI crude oil: 92.52, -0.02
Gold: 1,588.40, -3.30
Silver: 28.96, -0.213
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