As 2016 Winds Down With Stocks Up, What's In Store For 2017?

Recently, Americans and observes worldwide have been subjected to overreaction by lawmakers and media types over the "Russian hacking" of the recently-resolved US presidential elections and the possibility that certain electors in the electoral collage would bolt from the Trump camp in enough numbers to deny Donald Trump the needed 270 votes to certify him as America's 45th president.

As of 4:30 pm ET Monday, the electoral college did its job, giving Trump 306 votes, confirming his November victory and assuring the American public that all politics would proceed normally (we believe) for the foreseeable future.

Additionally, the over-hyped media and intelligence frenzy was revealed to have been yet another case of sour grapes and/or fake news fomented by the losers in the Democrat party and what appears to be rogue elements of the intelligence community. The good news is that Mr. Trump, once inaugurated on January 20, will be able to remove such rogue elements via his appointees to the CIA, FBI and other agencies. The bad news is that the sore loser Democrats and their media whores will remain, and they will likely continue to harass and object every effort Trump makes to "make America great again."

While almost nobody can reasonably oppose efforts to improve conditions for Americans, the Democrats will couch their objections in the most mealy-mouthed manners, with references to diversity, unfairness and vague commentaries on power and elitism.

Fortunately, the investor class has ignored most of the political squabbling and has moved on to increasing its wealth, with stocks up tremendously since election day. The bond markets have expressed acceptance of the Fed's minuscule rate hike of last week and have stabilized. Everything seems in place for a nice, year-end Santa Claus rally which will take the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the mythical 20,000 plateau.

The question to be asked at this juncture is, will the markets remain ebullient and bubbly into the New Year? With stocks hovering at or near all-time highs, and the bull run which began in 2009 extending into a ninth year, the answer should be obvious. Markets do not work one way (up) and corrections and bear markets often occur at what seems to be the most inopportune moments. With investor sentiment bullish to the extreme, the probability of a major correction in the first quarter of 2017 should be quite high, unless one adheres to the well-founded theory that the Fed has backstopped equity markets for years and will continue to do so. Doing otherwise, so the conventional wisdom tells, would be catastrophic, as though fair and open markets are inherently evil.

They are not, and it may be nigh on the eve of major changes in fiscal and monetary policy. On the fiscal side, Mr. Trump - a businessman with many years experience in all matters financial - the message is clear: he will do what it takes to get America on a path to prosperity for all levels of income, not just the crony capitalists and heavily financialized major corporations, but for individuals up and down the income ladder.

As for the Fed, one's guess is as good as another, but the genii inside the Fed seem intent on raising interest rates gradually in order to keep the US economy from overheating. As usual, they will be late to the party, but perhaps they can salve their damaged egos by reducing their bloated balance sheet in 2017 and leaving the number of interest rate hikes below three, ending the year around one percent, which, while traditionally absurdly low, would count as a major accomplishment since the Great Financial Crisis of the recent past.

Geopolitical events may overtake the Fed's view, however, as Japan and the Eurozone are well upon the road to financial ruin, and a crisis in either market (plus China) may cause extreme disruption to an orderly return to what is commonly referred to as "normalization."

A new administration hell-bent on returning America to greatness and leveling the playing field in international trade set against a backdrop of unelected financial and political operatives worldwide should make for an interesting, exciting, volatile year ahead.

As 2016 winds down, 2017 should present unique and various opportunities in all markets, requiring astute evaluation of not just balance sheets and P/E ratios, but insight into the political influence which has been and will continue to be exerted upon trade and commerce, globally.

At the Close: 12/19/2016
Dow: 19,883.06, +39.65 (0.20%)
NASDAQ: 5,457.44, +20.28 (0.37%)
S&P 500: 2,262.53, +4.46 (0.20%)
NYSE Composite: 11,128.54, +3.32 (0.03%)

Interest Rates Likely To Be Hiked Wednesday; For Now, Markets Don't Care

Remember how any time the Fed even hinted that they were going to raise interest rates (the fed funds rate, to be exact) the market would throw a hissy fit and drop 3-5% in a matter of days?

Well, that's ancient history, it appears, as the Dow smashes its way toward 20,000 with yet another all-time high, despite the Fed nearly certain to raise the Fed funds rate tomorrow (Wednesday, 2:00 pm).

For now, markets are completely out of control and have been since the election of one Donald J. Trump as president of the United States. If anybody believes his pledge to "make America great again," it sure seems like wizened traders on Wall Street do.

Hang tight. It's almost time to make a major move on silver and/or gold. The logic and reasoning for the buy will be explained right here at Money Daily in tomorrow's post-FOMC post.

Tuesday, Dec. 13, at the Closing Bell:
Dow: 19,911.21, +114.78 (0.58%)
NYSE Composite: 11,236.75, +59.47 (0.53%)
NASDAQ: 5,463.83, +51.29 (0.95%)
S&P 500: 2,271.72, +14.76 (0.65%)

Stocks Continue Surging Into Year-End; Fed Rate Hike Baked In, Unsubstantial

He said, "Call the doctor. I think I'm gonna crash."
"The doctor say he's comin', but you gotta pay him cash."
They went rushin' down that freeway,
messed around and got lost
They didn't care they were just dyin' to get off
--Life in the Fast Lane, Eagles, 1976

Stocks careened higher on Friday, finishing off a week that saw increased investor buying virtually across the board. It was the best week for stocks, especially on the Dow, since the week immediately following the US elections, an odd scenario for analysts and talking media heads who predicted turmoil and collapse if anybody but Hillary Clinton was elected president.

Since the election of Donald Trump, we now know that what emerges from the mouths of Wall Street psychopaths and media slaves is usually incorrect, politically driven and nine times out of ten wrong. What we still don't understand is why the same people are relied upon for their opinions, having been proven completely wrong over and over again, the best examples of this kind of nepotistic following being seen regularly on the financial networks, Bloomberg, Fox, and notoriously, CNBC, which has its own designated cheerleader, Jim Cramer.

How could all of these pundits and overpaid professionals have gotten it so wrong? Easy. The chances of stocks advancing or declining is almost always a 50/50 proposition, but, anybody reading the tea leaves from leftover elections would have known that a Republican president following a lame duck incumbent makes for a major bull market (that's made up, but it's probably true anyhow, and, in the age of "fake news" all one needs is a headline and story, right?).

Maybe people with money think Donald Trump's various positions on trade, immigration, wages, borders and culture will usher in another gilded age of American exceptionalism. For the most part, anybody with half a brain still in working order would welcome such a change. More than likely, following the initial post-election stock surge the rest of the advances have been driven largely by herd behavior.

It should be widely accepted, though it isn't, that stocks are valued extremely high, but the right thing is that bonds have been collapsing over the past five weeks, at the same time stocks have been rising. That's not your run-of-the-mill pair trade, but it is imaginative. As bonds fall, yields rise, making them more attractive as safety plays. In the meantime, with interest rates largely remaining at bargain basement levels, stocks have continued to be the investment de jour.

If there's a cloudy lining inside the silver cloud of stocks, it's that a correction is long overdue. However, bears and shorts have been saying that for the better part of the past four years and it hasn't happened. Instead, we happen to be in the midst of a massive valuation expansion. Whether or not individual stocks are good or bad investments presently does not seem to matter. There's an explosion of cash coming into the market, the same cash that was being hoarded pre-election. Once that money is exploited and exposed, the intensity of the rally should subside, but probably not until the calendar turn to 2017, the attractiveness and continual pimping of the "Santa Claus Rally" expected to be the main driver over the remaining weeks of 2016.

So, if a crash is coming, January's your huckleberry, or, right after the Fed raises the federal funds rate next week, which has evolved from a possibility to a near-certainty. The Fed and their one quarter of one percent hike in overnight lending is more a canard than a reality. Only the monumentally stupid or disconnected will suffer on a small rate increase. It's so tiny that almost nobody will notice. Certainly, it's not the kind of event that will cause a run, a panic, a rout, so the best action for next week is probably inaction.

Crashes and sudden downturns in the market normally come from out of the blue, caused by forces to which nobody (or only a select, ridiculed few) had been paying attention. If there's going to be a turn, the most likely causes are going to come from Japan or China or Europe, possibly even Brazil or another major portion of Latin America. More likely is that after Mr. Trump is inaugurated, US markets stabilize and places such as those mentioned above suffer. Such is the way of the world. There will be winners and losers. If America is going to be "great again" other countries are going to be not so great. The market is economics in motion and the chances for a crash in America are minimal over the short term. Longer term, dependent on too many factors to delineate here, corrections and crashes are bound to occur. The truth of the matter, is that the usually-wrong analysis from Wall Street is actually right on this account: if your time horizon is 20 or more years, crashes and corrections are buying opportunities and nothing more. The world won't end tomorrow or the next day, or the next month or the next year.

Thus, the outlook for stocks remains fairly solid, albeit a bit on the high side right now. Since the election, the Dow is more than 1400 points higher, a gain of nearly eight percent. That's a pretty healthy gain for five weeks and something that should be taken into account whatever investment decision one is making or about to make.

Friday's Closing Quotes:
Dow: 19,756.85, +142.04 (0.72%)
S&P 500: 2,259.53. +13.34 (0.59%)
NASDAQ: 5,444.50, +27.14 (0.50%)
NYSE Composite: 11,191.79, +41.83 (0.38%)

For the Week Ending 12/09/16:
Dow: +586.43 (+3.06%)
S&P 500: +67.58 (+3.08%)
NASDAQ: +188.85 (+3.59%)
NYSE Composite: +353.21 (+3.26%)

No Shortage Of Stupidity In The New USA

While many Americans are happy or relieved that the incoming president is going to be one Donald J.Trump rather than a Hillary R. Clinton, the level of stupidity and derision following the November 8 election cannot be underestimated nor easily dismissed.

Within hours of the election results being boomed around the world and drummed into the heads of the mainstream media (TV) pundits and nitwits, protests sprang forth in some large cities.The usual suspects were the main venues for these particular acts of organized convulsion. Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, Portland, Philadelphia and New York City - all bastions of sanctuary for liberal mind-numbness and “gimme” passions - were singed with the callous chanting and protesting of the election results. Ostensibly, the protesters were recruited, rounded up and bussed into the streets by the monied interest of George Soros, the criminal billionaire who has helped fund the destruction of Europe and was intent on bringing the philosophical wrecking ball to the United States.

Additionally, spontaneous demonstrations of grief, loathing, fear, and discontent erupted upon college campuses, those former institutions learning which have devolved into self-pitying, protected safe spaces for all manner of moronic manifestations.

These protests and demonstrations lasted about a week and died a slow, painful death, the adherents of liberal ideology apparently content to wreak havoc for a little while, collect their pay and slide back into the slimy holes from which they came.

Of course, their positions atop the “we’re all gonna die” narrative were quickly taken up by far more qualified idiots in the television and newspaper media and their lap-dog, sound-horn political hacks, who commandeered the airwaves with threats to undo or, at least, minimize the Trump victory, making various noises and guttural moaning about the rights of illegal immigrants, women, minorities and whatever other simple-minded antithetical nonsense they could foist upon the not-so-unsuspecting viewing and reading public.

Andrew Cuomo, governor of New York, issued a proclamation and a new law (heaped upon the hundreds of other laws which are not enforceable and cannot and will not be enforced) guaranteeing that any illegal threatened with deportation by the federal government will have his or her or its legal bills attended to by the overtly generous and sublimely stupid state of New York.

Mayors across the country insisted that their little fiefdoms would remain sanctuary cities, in direct conflict with the laws of the federal government. Legislation was introduced in the congress to abolish the electoral college. And finally, the left, left, left hop-skip march of the Green Party - which is nothing more than an unofficial subsidiary of the now-defunct and discredited Democrat party - sauntered into the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, promising a full investigation and recount of the vote that went narrowly to Trump and bumped him over the electoral college hump.

And then, Hillary’s people chimed in, on queue, just in time for the Sunday political talk shows, saying snidely that they owed it to the people who voted for Hillary (note: no respect for those who voted for the actual winner, Trump) to ensure that the vote tally was accurate.

But, the public had been heard. Trump had won and the millions who voted for him and the millions who quietly supported him refused to listen, refused to be deterred, refused to be fooled again. No, governor Cuomo, we’re not paying our taxes so that you can appear the savior of the downtrodden at our expense. No, Hillary, your vote recount won’t amount to anything. No, George Soros. Go back to Hungary, you cretin.


It seemed that some sanity had finally emerged, until I ran across this little oddity on a Facebook page. The person upon whose page it was posted (and whose face I have conveniently erased at left) went to a Catholic grammar school, a Catholic high school and eventually went to work in the Human Resources department of a public school district. For the record, there's really no position more loathsome than one in Human Resources, aka HR. It's about as low on the job totem pole one can smoke and doing this kind of work for a public school system is like smoking dirt through a straw pipe. Anyhow, this is why the education system should be scrapped: because people like this are hauling down enormous salaries and pensions while inflicting the youth under their care to ill-informed, nonsensical, downright bad advice.

This woman is no more a Muslim than I am a green-eyed Martian. She was brought up in a middle class American home, schooled privately during her formative years and had all the privilege and pampering that suburban life for young, white girls offered. Apparently, college and a lifetime of servitude to a corrupt, derelict education system which favors mediocrity over success, conformity over individuality, and the dishonesty of the diversity chorus over actual learning, turned a normal American woman into a screeching, tongue-twisted, limpid half-wit with no more original thinking than the average 30-second TV commercial. And the woman next to her in the photo (whose face I also have blotted out... to protect the guilty, as it is) is likely thinking of how she’ll cut out the heart of this insipid infidel when the time is ripe.

Such is the level of stupidity in America.

H. L. Mencken, who coined the phrase, “Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public,” is having convulsions in his grave.

While we’re on the subject of stupid, let’s look at solar technology. I recently had the opportunity to state my concerns and throw out some ideas about solar power on a local radio show (this part is for you, Bob).

Western states, especially those blessed with abundant sunshine, have built enormous solar farms which feed electricity into the grid and eventually into people’s homes. Some such plans have recently come to the attention to our local mob boss or governor, who wishes to have the state of New York take lands (probably under eminent domain) and turn them over to giant utility corporations in order to bring the solar energy collective to New York.

This is a canard designed to fool stupid people, of which there is no shortage in New York or anywhere else in this country. New York’s taxpayers are not as gullible or deep-pocketed as our countrymen out West. We’re tired of paying taxes and then paying again for subsidies to giant corporations. My advice on this radio show was for people to construct their own off-the-grid solar systems, at least partially offsetting the costs of centrally-distributed power.

Here’s how it goes. In most of New York, utility companies are allowed to assess a “customer charge,” a monthly stipend to the utility for the individual privilege of being a customer. There’s nothing more to it. It’s just an additional cost on your bill, sanctioned by our genius legislators, amounting to roughly $35 a month.

Considering that you’re going to stay on the gird for a number of years, that $35 a month becomes $420 a year and eventually, $4200 in ten years. Yes, $4200 just to be a sheep being sheared by the power company. If you took just that $4200 could easily purchase eight 250-watt solar panels at a cost of roughly $250 each (so, there’s $2000). An inverter, a voltage regulator, and a bank of four deep cycle batteries (which last 5-7 years, so they would have to be replaced at some point) should cost about $600-700. The solar panels have a useful life of twenty years, so, do the math (I know, it’s hard) and you’ll see how far ahead you could be.

Such a system can produce two kilowatts (that’s 2000 watts, son) of energy per hour on a sunny day. On average, upstate New Yorkers get about five hours of sun per day. On average. That’s important, because the sun doesn’t always shine (though modern solar panels can get some power from moonlight - it’s a modern marvel of technology). So, this setup will, on average, produce 10 kilowatt hours per day, or 300 Kwh per month. The average household uses somewhere between 400 and 800, but, being stupid, we waste a lot of that energy. Conservation (which is a derivative of conserve, just like conservative politics) is an important element in the quest to be not stupid, otherwise known as “smart.”

And because the sun doesn’t always shine, that’s why you’ll want four deep cycle batteries. They store the power you’re not using when the sun is shining. If the sun doesn’t shine for a few days, your batteries should have enough power to get you through, and then, when the sun shines again, they’ll recharge and store more power.

Thus, for the money most people are spending on just being a customer of a utility in New York, they could have their own electricity supplied from rooftop or ground  installed solar panels and still have money to spare. About $1500 over ten years. That’s not even taking into account the money these same people will be spending on electricity from the grid.

My advice is to forget the tax credits, the subsidies and tying into the grid. Construct your own solar system and keep it off the grid. The utilities don’t pay you nearly what they’re charging you for energy that you contribute back to the grid. Give the state of New York, the Public Service Commission, and the big utility company a robust middle finger, every month, month after month after month.

For those of you intimidated by electricity or solar technology or, for that matter, any technology, try it out for much less than the $2700 example cited above. Go to Harbor Freight and find the coupon or the monthly ad for the 45-watt solar panel kit. It should run between $129 and $179. It comes with all the wires, a voltage regulator, a couple of 12-volt lights (very cool), and instructions. You’ll also need at least one battery and an inverter (this turns DC electricity into AC). Those can be purchased at the same store. Anything from 400 watts to 1000 watts should work just fine.

The process is pretty simple and straightforward. A friend and I set this up and had power in under 20 minutes. It’s a plug-and-play system that probably any 15-year-old could set up and power up in the back yard. Use it in your garage, on your back porch or patio, for your camper, or for your shed. It’s fun, educational and a good first step before venturing into full-blown, off-the-grid freedom.

Oh, you say you need heat? Look into wood stoves, propane-powered or gas-powered generators and open up that little, collectivist mind for a bit.

Stupidity is one commodity that is free in America. That doesn’t mean you have to take the samples offered.

Media Lied, Trump Won, Markets Soared

How did the media get it so wrong?

That was outlined a month before the election, right here on Money Daily and confirmed when Donald Trump won the presidential election on November 8.

The simple truth is that the media was lying, about Clinton, about Trump, about the polls, about, well, just about everything, and the public caught onto the scam and ran the other way.

Good thing, but it's not over.

One other thing the media was widely disparaging was Trump's effect on the markets. Sorry to say, they had it all wrong again. Since election day, the S&P has gained 65 points, the Dow is up a whopping 650 points, the NASDAQ ahead by 188 points and the NYSE Composite has added 306 points.

Recall how the American public was being told by the TV media and national newspaper corps (should be corpse) that a Trump victory would leave the market in shambles and possibly send the economy spiraling into a recession.

The only thing going down the drain is the quality, reliability and honesty of news reportage in America, if that's at all possible. Prior to the election, the mainstream media had already sunk so low it was going to be difficult to get down any further into the stink-hole of bias and fear-mongering, but, by almost openly supporting Hillary Clinton, they not only demolished themselves, but their candidate with it.

The markets are doing just fine, thank you. All of the news anchors on NBC, CBS, ABC, FOX, CNN and anyone we may have missed, should be summarily fired. There's a job for which Trump is ideally suited: firing incompetent cheaters.

Short trading day Friday. See you after the holiday weekend.

--FR

At The Close, Wednesday, November 23:
Dow: 19,083.18, +59.31 (0.31%)
S&P 500: 2,204.72, +1.78 (0.08%)
NASDAQ: 5,380.68, -5.67 (-0.11%)
NYSE Composite: 10,835.90, 15.72 (0.15%)

Trump Wins, America Wins, Fearless Rick Takes A Victory Lap

November has, thus far, been an amazing month.

The Cubs won the World Series for the first time since 1904, Donald Trump won the election for president, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average registered a new all time high.

Fearless Rick outside Trump rally this Spring

In the meantime, as an aftermath to the historic, transformative election win for Donald Trump, a businessman, a TV idol, not a politician, students and other dissatisfied people are protesting the result of the democratic voting process.

To some, the protests may appear preposterous, pompous, self-indulgent, or just plain stupid. But, this is what America is all about: freedom of speech, freedom of expression, freedom to say and do whatever one pleases, so long as those words or actions don’t impinge upon those of others. It’s a thin, blurry line upon which we traverse with free speech and free assembly, but it is there, and, to a large extent, it is going to be respected.

Truthfully, the number of people protesting the election result is ridiculously small in comparison to the number of people who voted for Mr. Trump or Mrs. Clinton, so, to a large extent, the protests should be easy to ignore. The more one ponders the wisdom of protesting the result of an election, the more absurd the proposition becomes. The election was the result of months and months of free expression by the candidates, their surrogates, supporters, detractors, and the media. The time for marching and shouting was before the election, not after it. With any luck, that concept will sink in to the kids on the streets and college campuses and they’ll slink back to their jobs, classrooms, or parents’ basements and life will go on as usual.

Protests against the president prior to his inauguration, are likely to be ineffective. Maybe that hasn’t gotten through to George Soros and his ilk, who almost surely have funded and promoted these most idiotic of events.

But that’s not the point of this message. The point is to remind readers that the editor of this blog, Fearless Rick, himself called the election result correctly a month prior to it, calling for a Trump landslide, the result of millions of fed up Americans taking back their nation. Honestly, it was more of a hope than an educated prediction, but, as the pollsters and number crunchers themselves have admitted, they blew it. They didn’t see the millions of Americans who felt disenfranchised and disrespected by the likes of liberal goons promoting gay rights and LGBTQ liberties, who lost jobs because the government made moving industries out of America a profitable decision, who pay taxes for schools that don’t teach, elected officials and bureaucrats who don’t represent them, a media that mocks and ridicules them for being old-fashioned, out-of-step, or even selfish.

The backbone of America was awakened by a man who refused to toe the line of political correctness, who stood against open borders, who stood for the working men and women of this country, the middle class, the downtrodden, the forgotten. Donald Trump was a lightning rod for the pissed off, angry folks in the country who had seen enough of their rights stripped away and were afraid the choice of Hillary Clinton as the next president would have brought upon an epochal eventuality wherein the few remaining rights would be stripped in time.

They were probably right. Democrats and liberals alike have worked tirelessly to limit the second amendment, to nullify free speech, flout the immigration laws, disrespect the rule of law, and gradually, slowly, but incessantly, turn all of America into a totalitarian welfare state of chaos and complete government control. That was not the America most of those who voted for Mr. Trump wanted. Many of the Trump voters were older, who remembered a time when America was a safer place, a freer place, a happier place, and they wanted it back.

In electing Donald Trump as the nation’s 45th president, they may have taken the first step toward a restoration of the America, a return to morality, to honesty, to civility, to economic and true social justice. Making America great again, to borrow from Trump’s slogan, is not going to occur overnight, or even in the four years Mr. Trump will serve as president. It’s going to take a while to unwind all the bad legislation and trade deals and economic imbalances that were the result of crony capitalism. And Mr. Trump is not going to be able to do it alone. He is going to need not just the House of Representatives and the Senate but also the voices of those who voted for him and support his ideals. Winning the election was just the beginning. The left and their compliant media lapdogs are not about to go away and hide. They are going to fight back, lash out and tear at the fabric of society.

They will fail, and they will fail miserably because their vision of America, complete with free college educations, fifty million people on welfare, twenty trillion dollars of debt, overpaid government employees, and a severe lack of good, fulfilling, well-paying jobs, is not America at all. It is a liberal, dysfunctional, diseased obsession and fantasy.

The America represented by the people who put Donald Trump in office is an America of hard work and good pay, of duty to God, country and family, of fearlessness in the face of adversity, of helping neighbors and those less fortunate, of friendliness, honesty and humility. The America which will be refreshed is one of opportunity, freedom and justice for all.

It’s hard to believe that anybody in their right mind would protest that.

Go Figure: Trump Is A Winner And So Are Stocks

Editor's Note: I've been itching to write a post-mortem on the election for the past two days, but Wednesday was spent mostly recovering from the victory celebration which went late into Tuesday night and today the weather here in upstate New York is a breathtaking thing of beauty for mid-November with temperatures in the low 60s. Thus, I'm itching to get outside and enjoy the fresh air my little slice of America. I'll take my bows and victory lap for a month ago having predicted Trump's victory another time, likely at some point over the weekend.

There are more than a few points I wish to make and I am not yet over the elation of having gotten my country back to focus on penning a reasonably good essay, though I intend to in due time.

--Fearless Rick

Being just two days hence, the historic win in the presidential election by Donald J. Trump is still fresh in the mind, but already there are signs that the script has not yet been written for this chapter in American history.

Stocks, especially the Dow Jones Industrial Average, will close at record highs today should current prices be maintained or closely held.

The public had been led to believe that a victory for the Donald (can we still call him that once he's sworn in?) would be a death knell for stocks, but apparently, wall Street types see it somewhat differently, especially since not only did a Republican take control of the presidency, but the house and senate remained firmly in control of the GOP.

As strange as it may seem, Wall Street could actually believe in what Mr. Trump has been preaching and the last two days of trading may well be proof of that. Stranger yet is gold being down and silver up. Could the historic deviation from the gold/silver ratio we've witnessed over the past 30 years be starting to unwind? The best advice offered is one made a few months ago in Money Daily: buy solar panels (preferably American made).

Dow Closes Below 18,000, S&P Under 2100, Trendiing Lower; Fed Null

Stocks took the usual FOMC do-nothing antics in stride but sold off late in the day, with the Dow Jones Industrials finishing below 18,000 and the S&P 500 under 2100.

For the S&P, it was the first close below 2100 since early July, leaving the broad index up just five percent on the year, floating just above its 200-day moving average.

Cause for such grief in stocks is likely tied to the presidential election, now less than a week away, and the continuing surge of Donald J. Trump in the polls as more and more dirt is coming up from under the Hillary Clinton rug.

Investors are worried that their fair-haired, lying, cheating, scandal-ridden candidate will not make it to the finish line ahead of Trump, whom the media and Clinton camp have tried in vain to paint as misogynist, racist, rapacious, in bed with Russia, and other flights of fantasy.

As sad as the media bias and misrepresentation has been, what is potentially more disturbing is how poorly the media and Democrats think of the American public as gullible, malleable and utterly useful only to the ends of the elite.

As was stated more than three weeks ago right here in Money Daily, it now appears that Trump is going to win the election in a backlash landslide.

And stocks don't like it. Too bad.

Hump Day or Trump Day?
17,960.60, -76.50 (-0.42%)

NASDAQ
5,105.57, -48.01 (-0.93%)

S&P 500
2,097.95, -13.77 (-0.65%)

NYSE COMPOSITE
10,349.57, -64.48 (-0.62%)

Trouble In Paradise As Trump Presidency Looms

Normally, stocks are flat - as they were Monday - in anticipation of an FOMC rate policy meeting.

This time is different.

Stocks took a turn for the worse on Tuesday, with the major averages dipping more than 1/2 percent all around. The cause: the truly frightening possibility of a Donald Trump presidency, signifying a change from the crony capitalism of the past 30 years to a more measured, honest, workable structure favoring small business instead of major corporations erecting barriers to business through their henchmen in the US congress and various state assemblies.

That Trump could win the White House - disappointing the supporters of Hillary Clinton and the status quo - is a very disturbing development for Wall Street insiders who have counted on special favors, underhanded practices, and a compliant government to rack up big profits and fleece taxpayers and the investing public, all at the same time.

People who say that a Trump win would cause a market crash may be right, and it's just the medicine this sick globalized economy would need to mend itself. Trump is for a level playing field, lower taxes for individuals and corporations, tariffs as opposed to "free" trade, tighter border control, and fewer regulations.

While those proposals generally sound positive for US business, the devil is in the details. Policy leads reality and Trump's policies would likely put fire to the feet of fat-cat corporate types, ending the corruption and control frauds that plague business and government alike.

Yesterday's drop on the markets was not a one-time event and it also had nothing at all to do with the Fed and their FOMC meeting, which wraps up 2:00 pm ET Wednesday. As has been the case for the past ten months, the Fed will huff and puff and then do nothing. It's obviously too close to the election for the Fed to do anything that might upset the apple cart.

With a Trump presidency now a real, emerging possibility (since Clinton has finally been exposed as corrupt, incompetent, and dishonest) there may be more of these daily dips, especially if the media is forced to tell the truth about the economy and investments.

Time will tell. It's a week to the election and Trump is surging. Like it or not, stocks may take a dive and the economy will probably fall into a recession, all of which will be net positive for America. A good draining of the swamps in Washington and Wall Street is long overdue.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,037.10, -105.32 (-0.58%)

NASDAQ
5,153.58, -35.56 (-0.69%)

S&P 500
2,111.72, -14.43 (-0.68%)

NYSE Composite
10,414.05, -67.84 (-0.65%)

Stocks Finish Week On Negative Note, Leans Toward Trump

As Fridays go, especially one in which the government reported 2.9% GDP growth, this one was particularly dull.

Perhaps the news that the FBI informed members of congress that they'd discovered new evidence (on former rep Anthony Weiner's phone, of all places) that gave rise to reopening the investigation of Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server while secretary of state, her ties with the Clinton Foundation, pay for play, etc.

Investors are already nervous heading into the election on November 8, but news like what was released on Friday - abundant in speculation and short on details - has to make one consider running for the hills, or at least the nearest bug-out location.

Maybe it's nothing, but people with money invested always prefer calm to confusion, and the past six months (some say eight years) have been hard to figure.

Consequently, on Friday, stocks were up, then down, then unchanged, finally finishing with a small decline.

For the week, the Dow was the only major index to offer a gain, though a mere .05%. That makes sense, as, compared to the other indices, the Dow is considered the safest, comprised of 30 strong, dividend-yielding companies. The others were down on the week and for the third time in the past four, the NASDAQ - unsurprisingly, the most volatile - took the largest percentage loss, at -1.28%.

Correcting a slight but relevant detail in a previous post, it was stated that Friday was the final trading day of October. The calendar says otherwise, with Monday being the 31st and the key date by which to measure the stock market's ability to predict the presidential election. Being correct 82% of the tie since 1944, the S&P 500 would have to rally more than two percent on Monday for the prediction to call the election for Hillary Clinton.

If the S&P closes below 2,173.60 on Monday, the market predicts the next president will be Donald J. Trump.

Friday's Foibles:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,161.19, -8.49 (-0.05%)

NASDAQ
5,190.10, -25.87 (-0.50%)

S&P 500
2,126.41, -6.63 (-0.31%)

NYSE Composite
10,479.78, -23.28 (-0.22%)

Week ended 10/28
Dow: +15.48 (0.09%)
S&P 500: -14.75 (-0.69%)
NASDAQ: -67.30 (-1.28%)
NYSE Composite: -95.26 (-0.90%)

In Run-Up To Election, Markets Remain Shaky

As outlined in yesterday's post, US stock indices have been down since the beginning of August, presaging to the positive for the challenger party in the presidential election race.

While the outcome of a Trump victory is far from certain, what is clear is that traders and speculators are taking note of the fragile condition of the US and global economies, both of which have been side-stepping into the future since the crash of 2008-09.

Markets function largely on faith and hope, despair and confusion, greed and fear, and there seems to be ample supplies of all emotions all around. Puzzling analysts is how exactly a Clinton presidency would benefit markets, if only to keep the controlling interests in charge for another four years.

That may not be the best of circumstances, as Mr. Trump points out, because the global condition is quite completely on edge politically and likely over the edge financially. Nation-states are overburdened in debt, which has found its way back to the minions, a cause for unrest and potentially explosive social events.

With all that in the marco view, US companies, in the midst of third quarter earnings season, are, as has been the case for the past three years, struggling to find profits and any reason to be upbeat for the remainder of 2016 and into 2017.

There seems to be a dull thud re-occurring in the offices of CFOs and CEOs, that being the repeating sound of falling EPS and missed revenue figures, a double whammy for investors, though not many have fled the market as of this writing.

Thursday represents perhaps the biggest day of earnings season. Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon.com (AMZN), LinkedIn (LNKD) and Baidu (BIDU) are among companies set to report after the bell. Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Bristol-Meyers Squibb (BMY), Ford (F) and UPS (UPS) all report prior to the opening bell.

These results and some economic data (durable goods, pending home sales) will shape the day's trading. With just two days left in October, there's a slim chance that markets could rally back to positive for the past three months, which would be a good omen for the Hillary camp, but it is unlikely to happen unless some major news breaks that would spur a buying panic. It's happened before, but expect more oddities prior to election day next week.

Wednesday's Final Score:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,199.33, +30.06 (0.17%)

NASDAQ
5,250.27, -33.13 (-0.63%)

S&P 500
2,139.43, -3.73 (-0.17%)

NYSE Composite
10,528.19, -22.00 (-0.21%)

Stocks Predict The Next President Should Be Trump

Wall Street people pride themselves largely upon their particular abilities, especially those who use other people's money (OPM) to wager, gamble, or speculate on investments.

They brag, they boast, some of them actually tell the truth from time to time about their overall performance in the markets, whether their specialty be in stocks, bonds, commodities, or currencies.

Claims by some that they have peculiar, timely, or otherwise savvy insights into the future - akin to soothsayers, fortune tellers and gypsy tarot card readers - are, as time goes by, either validated or proven worthless. A spotty track record is by no means a cause for shame or contrition. Rather, these various prognosticators continue to spew pablum, intending to coerce a generally ill-informed public that their positions are the ones that matter.

As the time until the general election dwindles to under two weeks, one thing the Wall Street elite have not - by and large - weighed in upon is the result of the presidential sweepstakes. That's probably for good reason. Like 95% of the general public, they aren't convinced of an outcome either in favor of Mr. Trump or Mrs. Clinton, but, few have expressed their sentiments on what will happen after either is elected.

While there are those who say that the stock market will take a hit if Donald Trump is the next president, few, if any, figure that a Clinton win would be bad for investors. Oddly enough, almost nobody is saying the stock market will roar whichever candidate wins.

That's a perspective that is based largely on stock market returns and historical fact. According to this CNN story, since 1944, the direction of the stock market between August 1 and October 31 has correctly predicted the outcome of the election a stunning 82% of the time.

The metric is startlingly simple. If the market is up during the three months prior to the election, the incumbent party wins. If the market is down, the challenger is swept into office.

As of this writing, that measure favors Donald J. Trump, the challenger, but only slightly. On July 29, the final trading day prior to August 1, the S&P 500 stood at 2,173.60. It closed on Tuesday at 2143.16, about 1 1/2 percent off during the span.

There are three trading days left in the predicted period. It's possible that a strong rally could lift the averages back above the August 1 level, though it is beginning to appear more gloomy for Mrs. Clinton, the more the media bashes Trump and ignores the continuous, outrageous, potentially criminal behavior of the former First Lady and Secretary of State.

With the markets set to open in about a half hour, futures are lower. If this trend continues, get ready for a Trump presidency and the ascendancy of a moralistic, populist, business-first new regime in Washington.

Change at the top and across the political spectrum would likely be a boon to the majority of working Americans. After all, they're the ones that really matter, right?

Tuesday Trauma:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,169.27, -53.76 (-0.30%)

NASDAQ
5,283.40, -26.43 (-0.50%)

S&P 500
2,143.16, -8.17 (-0.38%)

NYSE Composite
10,550.19, -41.12 (-0.39%)

Presidential Debate Past; Stocks Return To Normal

With the results of Monday night's presidential debate clearly a mainstream victory for Hillary Clinton (according to the mainstream media, naturally), investors got the "all clear" Tuesday morning and immediately set about erasing the previous day's losses to a large extent.

There was nothing of note in the way of financial news, so the political news would have to suffice, and it apparently did.

With nothing now standing in the way of a Hillary Clinton victory in the November election, the smug Wall Street crowd felt good enough to boost stock prices for the average investor, despite Donald Trump's warning that the Fed was blowing bubbles and playing politics. Maybe the election doesn't matter that much.

All's well.

Tuesday's Shuffle
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,228.30, +133.47 (0.74%)

NASDAQ
5,305.71, +48.22 (0.92%)

S&P 500
2,159.93, +13.83 (0.64%)

NYSE Composite
10,657.18, +32.30 (0.30%)

Stocks Slide Again; Is Market Anticipating A Trump Victory Or Government Shutdown?

Stocks fell for the second straight session, extending losses from Friday to open the new week.

Causes for the two-day selling spree are questionable, but Monday's New Home Sales release by the Commerce Department may be a good place to start. After surging in July, new home sales fell 7.6% nationally, following a July surge.

Perhaps even more troubling is that the median price of a new home sold in August was down 3.1% from July and down 5.3% from a year earlier.

That's a real problem because the home-selling business has been anything but brisk, though price increases were a good sign for the Federal Reserve, which is dying to find any hint of inflation (they love it; consumers hate it). Thus, if new homes are selling at a discount from the year earlier, one could probably safely assume that existing homes are seeing price pressure to the downside as well.

Extrapolating from what is normally regarded as the biggest single purchase in a person's life, the cost of a home (or rent) going lower is going to put the brakes on inflation in a very large way, perhaps in a way that many people looking to sell are not going to appreciate. Recall that the last housing bust was a scant eight years ago. There are still underwater homeowners in various stages of despair, though the numbers have eased significantly over the years.

A downturn in housing prices, while great for new buyers, are overall anathema for the economy. How that squares with Wall Street's ongoing love-hate affair with the Fed and the call for higher interest rates is as yet unknown, but, after last week's stall on raising rates there's the distinct possibility that the Fed has called the market's bluff for the final time.

A FOMC meeting is sceduled for the first week in November, just prior to the election, so there's almost zero probability that the Fed would raise rates at that point, upsetting not just the market but the political class as well. That leaves December as the last chance for the Fed to raise rates, and looking back at their last December hike (a market disaster), there's some thinking that the almighty Fed may not want to repeat that particular episode.

One other potentiality for the sudden downturn in stocks is that inside money is looking seriously at a Donald Trump victory in November. Tonight's first debate (of three) between the Donald and Hillary Clinton may be a watershed moment in US political history. The most recent polls have the two candidates nearly even, as Mr. Trump has eviscerated Clinton's large post-convention lead, especially in some key battleground states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

Why large investors may be nervous about a Trump victory is the gnawing, belly-aching suspicion that Trump may be good for small business but bad for big business. His platform is not well-formed, but, he has used the words "crony capitalism" to his populist advantage. It's code for "no more business as usual" which means many of the larger firms (think S&P 500) that have benefited from decades of competition-crushing regulations and legislation may be looking at a more level playing field which puts small businesses on a better footing, something with which they have no relevant experience. That opens up new possibilities that favor smaller competitors taking market share from larger ones, to the ultimate detriment of the US stock market, but probably to the betterment of the overall economy.

Not withstanding any other reasons to fear a Trump presidency, the elitists on Wall Street and in the nation's capitol simply do not know what to expect. That's why they're the status quo and Donald Trump spells big danger.

Another rationale for a market downturn is the continuing drama over keeping the federal government operating past this coming Friday. The president and congress are doing their usual dance of death surrounding a continuing resolution rater than an actual budget to avoid a government shutdown and the Friday deadline is looming large.

Lastly, this being the last week of September, maybe the marketeers are gearing up for an October to remember, as has occurred on numerous occasions in the past. Market crashes and corrections always seem to pop up in the harvest month, and this one offers even more uncertainty than usual.

Blue Monday:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,094.83, -166.62 (-0.91%)

NASDAQ
5,257.49, -48.26 (-0.91%)

S&P 500
2,146.10, -18.59 (-0.86%)

NYSE Composite
10,624.88, -93.11 (-0.87%)

Fed Holds, Market Stuck; Donald Trump A Viable Alternative

The stage is set for the presidential election and the Fed will try its best to not influence it (that is, unless Hillary Clinton is losing).

At its most recent meeting - which ended this past Wednesday with the usual "no change" announcement - the FOMC decided that there wasn't enough positive economic data to support raising rates, despite record low unemployment according to official sources.

Thise in the know understand that the Fed cannot and will not (the next meeting is scheduled for November 1-2) raise interest rates prior to the election (November 8) because any increase, such as the lonesome one of 0.25% back in December of last year, would cause a market panic and sharp selloff of stocks.

The condition is asinine, akin to preparing a race horse for racing and then continually scratching the nag before the event.

Members of the Fed continue to jawbone about raising rates, which keeps their fragile authority intact. The truth is that they lost control back in 2008, and have done nothing to retain or repair the confidence of the populace, though, due to normalcy bias, everybody keeps using fiat money and going along for the zero interest rate ride for the time being.

These policies cannot last forever, thus it may become fashionable and even predictable to vote for Donald Trump in the upcoming election. Trump is a change agent, one feared in the halls of congress, statehouses and even in the conference rooms of the Fed's Eccles building.

Stocks are overpriced because there is no alternative for many large investors, and that's a danger.

So, get ready for a rocky road ahead. The first presidential debate is Monday, and that event could change the dynamics for November and the immediate future.

Stay tuned and stay liquid.

Friday's Closing Prices:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,261.45, -131.01 (-0.71%)

NASDAQ
5,305.75, -33.78 (-0.63%)

S&P 500
2,164.69, -12.49 (-0.57%)

NYSE Composite
10,717.99, -75.67 (-0.70%)

The week:
Dow: +137.65 (0.76%)
NASDAQ: +61.18 (1.17%)
S&P 500: +25.53 (1.19%)
NYSE Composite: +185.72 (1.76)

Volatility Returns As Stocks Retrace Friday's Losses

Writing just after noon on Tuesday, stocks seem to be in a certain funk over the future of not just corporate earnings, but the direction of the Federal Reserve and the outcome of the 2016 presidential race.

On the latter, Hillary Clinton's continued lying (even about her health, which is in terrible condition) may be costing her the election, to say nothing of the idea that many people who may have held their noses and voted for the Democrat status quo choice over the maverick Trump, may be changing their minds given that Hillary may not be able to effectively serve as president, yet alone make it to the finish line in the election process come November.

While Trump has held his tongue over Hillary's health issues, he continues to gain in the polls and in popularity with the American people. With the election less than two months away, any more gaffes by Clinton could prove fatal to her presidential aspirations, which, in the long run, would likely be a good thing for the American public.

Wall Street doesn't apparently appreciate the way things are going, though with Hillary losing ground, there's even less chance that the FOMC will announce a rate hike at their meeting next week. Trump's bashing of Janet Yellen earlier is also weighing on markets, and while the stock market may not like the way he's talking, as usual, he's speaking the unblemished truth: stocks are overpriced due to Fed meddling.

Is this how it all ends, with a Trump presidency and a wholesale cleansing of the sick economic policy apparatus?

We can only hope.

After Monday's dead-cat rally, stocks have given back all of those gains by midday, and then some. Get ready for a rocky ride this afternoon and more days of heightened volatility to come as the election takes precedence over all other economic and political events.

FOMC Focus: Will Stocks Change Direction After Labor Day?

Today's headline offers a provocative suggestion, though the simple answer to the question is a flat-out "NO," simply because the overtly political Federal Reserve will not - under an circumstances - raise interest rates in September.

That is almost so widely accepted within the financial community as to make it nearly a fact, a fait accompli, a gospel truth.

There are any number of reasons why the FOMC will not raise the federal funds rate even one basis point at their upcoming meeting on September 20 and 21, not the least of which is the assumption that such a rash move would derail the presidential bid by the status quo candidate, the fair-haired-soon-to-be-liar-in-chief, Hillary Clinton.

Naturally, that's a one-sided argument which has nothing to do with economics, but the Fed has other issues behind their upcoming decision to stand pat on rates for the foreseeable future.

Among these issues are the ongoing candidacy of Mr. Donald J. Trump, who is seen as anathema to anything and everything establishment, and that means the Fed itself. A Trump victory in November would almost certainly foment much in the way of chaos, including a pre-emptive attack from the Fed itself, sensing an almost perfect opening to raise rates and crash the market, maybe even do away with the entire post-Bretton Woods arrangement via a wholesale financial collapse.

That might be fun, but the projections fro the US economy going forward are not, have not been for some time and will not be. That's the main reason the Fed is stuck at the near-zero bound, because not only the US economy, but that of almost all developed nations are not growing. Rather, they are growling with intense citizen upset, declining labor utilization rates and a demographic wall that current policies can and will never scale.

The Fed is boxed in, as are all central banks. They can't do anything except buy up more overpriced assets even though that effort has failed to produce their highly-anticipated inflation and associated growth. One might say that all the central bank coddling of the system has produced is a massive over-supply of everything and a deflationary vortex that challenges their Keynesian orthodoxy.

The Fed - unless Hillary Clinton is elected president, and even that's no clincher - is toast.

Thursday's Results:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,419.30, +18.42 (0.10)

NASDAQ
5,227.21, 13.99 (0.27%)

S&P 500
2,170.86, -0.09 (0.00%)
^NYA

NYSE Composite
10,771.91, +7.16 (0.07%)

Monday Blues: Stocks Fall; Is It The Trump, Clinton, Sanders or Putin Effect?

Over the weekend, the political climate became highly charged with the release of thousands of emails from the servers of the Democratic National Committee courtesy of Wikileaks and, as some presume, the assistance of Russian operatives. The propaganda nailing Russia as the bad guy was already underway as of the Sunday news shows. It's very likely to be completely spurious.

The leaked emails revealed a concerted effort to swing the primary vote toward the favored candidate, Hillary Clinton, and away from upstart radical, Bernie Sanders. To say the least, the emails were scandalous and disgusting, revealing just how deeply ingrained the status quo has become, and the lengths to which they will plumb in order to have public opinion bend to their will.

Suffering the most from the fallout was DNC chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who was forced to announce her resignation as chair on Saturday. Ms. Schultz announced that she would gavel in the convention on Monday and gavel it out on Thursday.

Those plans fell completely apart on Monday as first, Ms. Schultz was shouted down as she attempted to address the Florida delegation, ironically, people from her own state. After being unceremoniously whisked from the stage, Ms. Schultz announced that she will not be associated with the convention in any way.

In two words: she's fired.

As has been mentioned on this blog in the past and as recently as the prior post which wrapped up last week, once the powers that be begin getting a whiff of a Donald Trump victory in November's presidential election, stocks will fall, leaving the Donald a mess not unlike what greeted Barack Obama in 2008.

So it is, when central banks and oligarchical politicians believe they can control not only markets, but the lives of the people investing in them.

The modern equivalent of torches and pitchforks are cellphone videos and anti-establishment signs.

Peace. It's a foreign concept in this period and the madness is swelling.

Monday's Politically-Charged Changes:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,493.06, -77.79 (-0.42%)

NASDAQ
5,097.63, -2.53 (-0.05%)

S&P 500
2,168.48, -6.55 (-0.30%)

NYSE Composite
10,752.43, -52.61 (-0.49%)

Too Much Drama: Brexit/Bremain And US Presidential Elections Are Sideshows To Be Ignored

Kids love drama. That's why they put on little shows for their friends, parents, grandparents, other siblings. They are also expert at throwing tantrums and acting out to get their own ways on things they like and/or don't like, or want to or don't want to do.

Typically, kids don't like certain foods (think vegetables), going to bed early or being cooped up in a classroom for 6-7 hours a day from the time they're six until seventeen or eighteen. If kids decide to go on to college, they may actually find themselves in classrooms until they're 21, 22 or even longer should they decide to attend graduate school, become a lawyer, doctor, or pursue a doctorate in any field of endeavor.

Of the three things kids don't like, it can be readily assumed that at least two of them are actually good for them, even after they cease being kids. For instance, vegetables (especially the non-GMO varieties) are proven to be good for overall health, vitality and longevity. Getting a good night's sleep is also a very healthy, albeit numb in the main, activity.

Going to school for a significant percentage of one's formative years is questionable. A solid education is admirable and achievable, though what constitutes such in public schools may not exactly fit the billing. Thus, the love of and use of drama to achieve ends is largely unjustified in the case of the wants (not needs) of people under the age of 20, i.e., kids.

Expanding this concept - that drama is unjustifiable - into adult life and interaction with mass media, might be useful in assessing current events, particularly the upcoming vote or referendum (tomorrow, Thursday, June 23) on whether Great Britain sh
ould remain or leave the European Union (otherwise known as Brexit or Bremain, depending upon one's point of view) and the drawn out affair that has become a nearly two-year ritual in choosing a president in the United States.

In terms of both events, the media time allotted to examining, reporting, tweeting, broadcasting, dissecting, analyzing, and otherwise trying to understand the issues has been, in a word, excessive.

In other words, the media, obsessed with having to fill countless hours of broadcast time (radio, TV, internet) and print space (newspapers, magazines, internet) has committed the undeniable sin of "too much drama." The British and American people have been overwhelmed with "news" on the impact of the British referendum and the American election.

Both events will take place in the span of one day, yet the time allocated to it by the media exceeds that period by orders of magnitude.

Like kids, the media clamors for attention, trying to convince the public (and maybe even themselves) of the overall importance of these events. Truth is, neither will matter that much to the normal functioning of an average adult life. Whether Britain remains in the EU or not will not have dramatic impact on one's individual day-to-day activities, nor will the choice of Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton for Americans.

Mainstream media would rather have you and I and everyone else in the world glued to their TVs and radios and internet sites and newspapers non-stop, forever and ever, no matter how trivial or important the current crop of stories, analyses, and perceptions.

Most adults (and kids, too) have a routine in their lives which goes something like this: get up, clean up, work, eat, relax, sleep. In between those major activities - and it is possibly an amazing discovery that roughly a third of that time is devoted to sleeping, and maybe another third to working - people do everything else, including, in no particular order, having sex, voting, playing, raising kids, tending a garden, pursuing a hobby, reading, listening to or viewing things other than what the mainstream media spouts effusively, and a plethora of other mundane activities.

The point is that the elections fall into this diffuse area occupied in the large by "everything else." Brexit and the presidential elections barely even register on the life radar in terms of importance, meaning that whatever way it goes, individuals (aka, people) will go about their lives in largely the same way as before the "monumental" voting.

That the media devotes so much time, effort and money to events which are, in general terms, non-eventful, uncovers the abject failure of life in the information age. If you're in your 60s, for instance, you've lived through the administrations of as many as 12 presidents (Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Clinton, George W. Bush, Obama) and are now on the cusp for a 13th. Whether the choice is Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will, in the long route of history, be conspicuously inconsequential.

From that timely perspective, each and every one of these presidents has done a fair job of keeping the American public somewhat safe, secure and happy, protected the constitution to varying degrees, and also kept the American public in check, or, kept the general population from violent rebellion. On that final point, we're probably a bit more civilized these days, choosing to simply ignore the government as much as possible than openly rebelling against it. That kind of stuff generally gets one killed, maimed, or jailed, none of which are desirable outcomes.

As for the Brits, Money Daily doesn't have much interaction with our former colonial masters, but England seems to be a somewhat genteel and fair place to live. The current living residents of England will cast their votes tomorrow, but the effects will be barely noticeable, likely for decades. People will adjust and adapt.

While Brits and Yanks alike are concerned about the deterioration of their civil liberties - a theme common to the Brexit/Bremain vote and the US presidential election - it seems a slow, drawn-out process and also one to which one can adjust. Just like eating your vegetables and getting a good night's sleep are desirable and contribute to a better life, ignoring elections and votes and avoiding government at all levels is probably the most prudent behavior.

And prudence, from Aristotle to Aquinas to Pascal, is a vastly more desirable human trait than relying on personal drama to achieve one's desires.

+++++++++++ +++++++++++

Today in the markets, perhaps taking an unattributable cue from the above essay, there wasn't much in the way of panic, fear, greed, avarice, sloth, joy, or any other emotion. Equity markets were fairly flat, owing to the unforgivable media rhetoric surrounding tomorrow's Brexit/Bremain referendum having wrung out every possible trading scheme or maneuver.

Panic? Thy Name is Brexit:
S&P 500: 2,085.45, -3.45 (0.17%)
Dow: 17,780.83, -48.90 (0.27%)
NASDAQ: 4,833.32, -10.44 (0.22%)

Crude Oil 48.95 +0.20% Gold 1,269.10 -0.27% EUR/USD 1.1294 +0.41% 10-Yr Bond 1.69 -0.71% Corn 395.00 -0.32% Copper 2.13 +0.78% Silver 17.28 -0.23% Natural Gas 2.91 -2.70% Russell 2000 1,148.97 -0.42% VIX 21.22 +14.83% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4691 +0.15% USD/JPY 104.4400 -0.32%

FOMC Leaves Rates Unchanged, Turns More Dovish; Wedbush: Stocks Crash If Trump Wins

Stock junkies got their fix on Wall Street today, as the FOMC not only kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 1/4 to 1/2%, but reversed course on their planned four rate hikes in 2016, reducing the outlook to two, which, in the nuanced parlance that can only come from crony central bankers, means one more rate hike in 2016, likely not until September, at the earliest.

Talking heads from the various analyst camps spoke of a potential June hike, though, judging from the Fed's past actions, later, rather than sooner, would be the more likely timing. With US general elections coming in November, the Fed - no longer an altruistic entity, but a purely political one - a September rate cut would produce maximum chaos, which is surely the ongoing plan.

Not to put too cynical a spin on it, but the Federal Reserve has become completely politicized under Janet Yellen, with plenty of assistance and guidance by the mother hens which dominate policy from the White House. Employing high-sounding verbiage and the trappings and aura of majesty, the Fed has managed to hypnotize global markets and US citizens with their incredible blend of experimental policy and garbled, mangled language.

What the Fed has accomplished is nothing more than a furtherance of the ongoing wealth transfer from the distressed middle and lower classes to the uber-wealthy, while shutting out innovation, creativity and entrepreneurial spirit.

In essence, they are the ultimate destroyer of the American economy via globalist intentions and actions.

With their latest salvo of lick-spittle jawboning, they perpetuate the counterfeit of the US dollar and the fraud on savers which began in earnest with the financial collapse in 2008-09.

Stock promoters couldn't be happier, sending the major indices to their highest points since early January. With no impediments standing between them and median price-earnings ratios approaching pre-1929 levels, stocks are poised to completely erase the losses incurred through the first six weeks of the year.

With today's close, the Dow and S&P are within one strong day of getting even for the annum; the NASDAQ has a little more work to do.

December 31, 2015 closing prices:
Dow: 17,425.03
S&P: 2,043.94
NASDAQ: 5,007.41

Today's Fed-jacking:
S&P 500: 2,027.22, +11.29 (0.56%)
Dow: 17,325.76, +74.23 (0.43%)
NASDAQ: 4,763.97, +35.30 (0.75%)

Crude Oil 38.49 +5.92% Gold 1,264.00 +2.68% EUR/USD 1.1227 +1.08% 10-Yr Bond 1.9380 -1.07% Corn 368.25 -0.07% Copper 2.25 +0.94% Silver 15.64 +2.48% Natural Gas 1.87 +0.97% Russell 2000 1,074.51 +0.74% VIX 14.99 -10.99% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4269 +0.79% USD/JPY 112.5475 -0.53%

In what has to be the #1 hit piece on Donald Trump from the Wall Street crony capitalists - via Yahoo! and CNBC, Wedbush's director of equity sales, Ian Winer (shouldn't that be I'm a Whiner?) says stocks will crash 50% if Trump is elected president.

Here's a link to the article and video (and some easy comments), and if you just want the video, go here!

CNBC, the #1 financial bull--it network, doesn't want to mention that stocks should fall 50% anyhow, and the entire economy will be gutted if Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders wins the election.

https://screen.yahoo.com/trump-catastrophic-stocks-wedbush-214000793.html

One of the better comments, by commentator takebreathandthink:

It's true, the markets will crash 50%. Also, the seas will turn to blood, meteors will rain down from the heavens, swarms of locusts will kill all of the crops in the world, every volcano will erupt, earthquakes will rip apart the continents, and the first born of everyone in the world will die (thank God I'm the youngest in my family).

Inquiring minds want to know why Mr. Winer didn't call for a 60% or 80% crash. After all, if you're going to trash someone, why go just halfway?

Vote Trump. Wall Street hates him.