Showing posts with label Donald Trump. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Donald Trump. Show all posts

Monday, November 7, 2016

President Hillary? Is The Fix In Or The Ultimate Fake-Out?

Considering the volatile take-off of markets world-wide today - a day after FBI Director James Comey gave Hillary Clinton the get out of jail free card by informing congress and the world that nothing new was found in the 650,000 emails on a computer shared by Clinton personal aide Huma Abedin and Anthony Weiner, it would appear that the status quo has convinced itself that all is well, that Hillary will win (by hook or crook) and that Donald Trump will not upset the establishment apple cart and "drain the swamp."

Though the swamp dearly needs a good drainage, the market reaction (Dow up over 300 points; NASDAQ up more than 100) from the establishment shows just how embedded the insiders, politicians and media are and just how deeply they despise the voice of the electorate.

This election season has been an object lesson in totalitarianism, underhanded politics, lies, and corruption.

We've got one day to find out whether the world has ended (Hillary wins) or the citizens of the United States of America still has a voice (Trump wins). From the purely superficial appearances, it would come as no surprise if the election was once again (see 2000 and 2004) stolen by the establishment authors of both parties.

Many of us with functioning minds are keeping our fingers crossed and hoping for a Trump victory. Though the Donald has his flaws, the media has managed to paint a truly ugly portrait of the man, all the while ignoring the obvious illegal activities of Hillary Clinton.

God save us.

Wednesday, November 2, 2016

Dow Closes Below 18,000, S&P Under 2100, Trendiing Lower; Fed Null

Stocks took the usual FOMC do-nothing antics in stride but sold off late in the day, with the Dow Jones Industrials finishing below 18,000 and the S&P 500 under 2100.

For the S&P, it was the first close below 2100 since early July, leaving the broad index up just five percent on the year, floating just above its 200-day moving average.

Cause for such grief in stocks is likely tied to the presidential election, now less than a week away, and the continuing surge of Donald J. Trump in the polls as more and more dirt is coming up from under the Hillary Clinton rug.

Investors are worried that their fair-haired, lying, cheating, scandal-ridden candidate will not make it to the finish line ahead of Trump, whom the media and Clinton camp have tried in vain to paint as misogynist, racist, rapacious, in bed with Russia, and other flights of fantasy.

As sad as the media bias and misrepresentation has been, what is potentially more disturbing is how poorly the media and Democrats think of the American public as gullible, malleable and utterly useful only to the ends of the elite.

As was stated more than three weeks ago right here in Money Daily, it now appears that Trump is going to win the election in a backlash landslide.

And stocks don't like it. Too bad.

Hump Day or Trump Day?
17,960.60, -76.50 (-0.42%)

NASDAQ
5,105.57, -48.01 (-0.93%)

S&P 500
2,097.95, -13.77 (-0.65%)

NYSE COMPOSITE
10,349.57, -64.48 (-0.62%)

Trouble In Paradise As Trump Presidency Looms

Normally, stocks are flat - as they were Monday - in anticipation of an FOMC rate policy meeting.

This time is different.

Stocks took a turn for the worse on Tuesday, with the major averages dipping more than 1/2 percent all around. The cause: the truly frightening possibility of a Donald Trump presidency, signifying a change from the crony capitalism of the past 30 years to a more measured, honest, workable structure favoring small business instead of major corporations erecting barriers to business through their henchmen in the US congress and various state assemblies.

That Trump could win the White House - disappointing the supporters of Hillary Clinton and the status quo - is a very disturbing development for Wall Street insiders who have counted on special favors, underhanded practices, and a compliant government to rack up big profits and fleece taxpayers and the investing public, all at the same time.

People who say that a Trump win would cause a market crash may be right, and it's just the medicine this sick globalized economy would need to mend itself. Trump is for a level playing field, lower taxes for individuals and corporations, tariffs as opposed to "free" trade, tighter border control, and fewer regulations.

While those proposals generally sound positive for US business, the devil is in the details. Policy leads reality and Trump's policies would likely put fire to the feet of fat-cat corporate types, ending the corruption and control frauds that plague business and government alike.

Yesterday's drop on the markets was not a one-time event and it also had nothing at all to do with the Fed and their FOMC meeting, which wraps up 2:00 pm ET Wednesday. As has been the case for the past ten months, the Fed will huff and puff and then do nothing. It's obviously too close to the election for the Fed to do anything that might upset the apple cart.

With a Trump presidency now a real, emerging possibility (since Clinton has finally been exposed as corrupt, incompetent, and dishonest) there may be more of these daily dips, especially if the media is forced to tell the truth about the economy and investments.

Time will tell. It's a week to the election and Trump is surging. Like it or not, stocks may take a dive and the economy will probably fall into a recession, all of which will be net positive for America. A good draining of the swamps in Washington and Wall Street is long overdue.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,037.10, -105.32 (-0.58%)

NASDAQ
5,153.58, -35.56 (-0.69%)

S&P 500
2,111.72, -14.43 (-0.68%)

NYSE Composite
10,414.05, -67.84 (-0.65%)

Saturday, October 29, 2016

Stocks Finish Week On Negative Note, Leans Toward Trump

As Fridays go, especially one in which the government reported 2.9% GDP growth, this one was particularly dull.

Perhaps the news that the FBI informed members of congress that they'd discovered new evidence (on former rep Anthony Weiner's phone, of all places) that gave rise to reopening the investigation of Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server while secretary of state, her ties with the Clinton Foundation, pay for play, etc.

Investors are already nervous heading into the election on November 8, but news like what was released on Friday - abundant in speculation and short on details - has to make one consider running for the hills, or at least the nearest bug-out location.

Maybe it's nothing, but people with money invested always prefer calm to confusion, and the past six months (some say eight years) have been hard to figure.

Consequently, on Friday, stocks were up, then down, then unchanged, finally finishing with a small decline.

For the week, the Dow was the only major index to offer a gain, though a mere .05%. That makes sense, as, compared to the other indices, the Dow is considered the safest, comprised of 30 strong, dividend-yielding companies. The others were down on the week and for the third time in the past four, the NASDAQ - unsurprisingly, the most volatile - took the largest percentage loss, at -1.28%.

Correcting a slight but relevant detail in a previous post, it was stated that Friday was the final trading day of October. The calendar says otherwise, with Monday being the 31st and the key date by which to measure the stock market's ability to predict the presidential election. Being correct 82% of the tie since 1944, the S&P 500 would have to rally more than two percent on Monday for the prediction to call the election for Hillary Clinton.

If the S&P closes below 2,173.60 on Monday, the market predicts the next president will be Donald J. Trump.

Friday's Foibles:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,161.19, -8.49 (-0.05%)

NASDAQ
5,190.10, -25.87 (-0.50%)

S&P 500
2,126.41, -6.63 (-0.31%)

NYSE Composite
10,479.78, -23.28 (-0.22%)

Week ended 10/28

Dow: +15.48 (0.09%)
S&P 500: -14.75 (-0.69%)
NASDAQ: -67.30 (-1.28%)
NYSE Composite: -95.26 (-0.90%)

Friday, October 28, 2016

Special: Fighting Fraud Starts With Skepticism Of Statistics Like GDP

Stocks sold off slightly on Thursday, but, over the past few days and weeks, the real money has been moving in bonds, which - in the case of the US and Germany, at least - are sporting yields at or near multi-year highs.

The cause is mostly FUD, the arcane acronym invented on the internet standing for Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt. When bond traders get riffed, the world should take note, but, since we are preconditioned to focus our collective attention on stocks, most people don't realize where money is moving and why until it's too late. Interest rates rise, money tightens and flows into bonds because they are considered more stable and safer than stocks. Businesses and consumers face higher lending costs, the economy stalls, stocks decline. The process takes many months, often years, before the eventual recession occurs. Fortunes are made and lost, mostly made by savvy bond specialists and lost by individuals and stock investors.

It's a royal screw job on the middle and upper-middle class (or what's left of it) by monetary authorities and governments that have been skimming off the top through inflation, deflation, fractional reserve banking, taxes, fees, and penalties. If you feel like you've been screwed by either banks or the government (village, city, county, state, or federal), it's because you have been... often overtly, but more often, quietly, covertly, under the cover of "we're doing what's best for you," or increased spending, deficit spending, capital "improvements" or budget windfalls to schools, tunnels, roads, bridges, fire departments, special tax districts, et cetera ad nauseum.

It's why people are voting for Trump. No kidding. American voting-age citizens fall today grossly into two broad categories: 1) Working people or retired on fixed income, getting nowhere fast, watching their incomes stagnate since 1999, paying more for everything from health care to property taxes to cell phone or internet service to utilities; 2) Welfare, SSI disability or other entitlement recipients, government employees who care not a whit that everything is going to hell in a handbasket because they either a) get a rent subsidy, food stamps, and other goodies no matter what, for doing nothing, or, b) are a government employee getting an automatic annual raise regardless of their job performance or the economic condition of the country.

In between or outside these two mega-groups are the upper-upper crust of one-percenters who make their money off interest on investments and the swath of social security and pension retirees who have maxed out on the system. That large last group vectors in and out of the working class spectrum to a large degree and some are being largely disenfranchised in the same ways that the middle class has been, especially since 2001, when interest rates began tanking and savings no longer provided a great enough return to outpace inflation.

Older folks will remember better days, when banks paid 5% interest on savings. Forget that. It's gone. Just like the social security fund, which faces default and bankruptcy within 15 years, our best days are behind us. Baby boomers will be the last generation to get ahold of the golden ring of social security. Generations X and Y will get less and millennials will likely get little to nothing. The system broke in the 80s, under Ronald Reagan (sorry, conservatives, but that's the truth), and it's just gotten worse as banking regulations were eased (Clinton and congress conspired to eviscerate Glass-Steagall leading to the global collapse) and every president since Carter has stolen from the social security fund to pay general obligations.

What's multiple times worse is that not only has the federal government stolen from the future, but they've managed to run up enormous deficits nearly every year and add to the debt at an exponential rate.

Here at Money Daily we don't expect everyone to understand economics, but we do strive to encourage people to exercise a little common sense and have basic math skills. Since what the government does with money (spend more than they take in), it doesn't take a Ph.D. in anything to discern that if you did the same, your financial condition would deteriorate, slowly at first, then all at once, sending you and yours to the poor house.

So, the government does better? How do they perform this magic? Lies and deception, mostly, through the issuance of bonds, sold to the Fed, parceled out to primary dealers and sold again to investors of all stripes. The Fed then prints more money, which is spent throughout the economy. Banks used to multiply the money supply via fractional reserve lending but they don't do much of that anymore. They use accounting tricks, balance sheets nobody can comprehend and investments form the ordinary to the arcane (CDOs, for instance) rather than functioning under some form of fiscal discipline. It's all too easy for the government and the banking system to defraud everyone. They've been doing it for centuries. It gets reset from time to time, but the same powers that were become the powers that be. It's history, if you know where to find it.

So, to the point: Just moments ago, the Deptartment of Commerce reported its first estimate of third quarter GDP, coming in at a robust 2.9%, more than double the second quarter's stumbling 1.4%, all smoke and mirrors designed to elect Hillary Clinton as president, keep the status quo firmly entrenched, and continue your existence as a docile, dumb serf. When the numbers are revised in a month, and again another month later, and again in two years, the number will be much lower, but, by that time the elections will be long over, the winners will be still partying, and you will be getting screwed, again, and again, and again.

Just wait until October's job numbers come out next Friday, the final, big lie prior to the elections. It should be awesome, but it will still be a lie.

If you aren't gardening, putting up solar panels, repairing an old car rather than buying a new one, scrimping and saving, buying gold and silver now, worry not, you soon will be.

Thursday's Tumble
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,169.68, -29.65 (-0.16%)

NASDAQ Composite
5,215.97, -34.29 (-0.65%)

S&P 500
2,133.04, -6.39 (-0.30%)

NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)
10,503.06, -25.13 (-0.24%)

Thursday, October 27, 2016

In Run-Up To Election, Markets Remain Shaky

As outlined in yesterday's post, US stock indices have been down since the beginning of August, presaging to the positive for the challenger party in the presidential election race.

While the outcome of a Trump victory is far from certain, what is clear is that traders and speculators are taking note of the fragile condition of the US and global economies, both of which have been side-stepping into the future since the crash of 2008-09.

Markets function largely on faith and hope, despair and confusion, greed and fear, and there seems to be ample supplies of all emotions all around. Puzzling analysts is how exactly a Clinton presidency would benefit markets, if only to keep the controlling interests in charge for another four years.

That may not be the best of circumstances, as Mr. Trump points out, because the global condition is quite completely on edge politically and likely over the edge financially. Nation-states are overburdened in debt, which has found its way back to the minions, a cause for unrest and potentially explosive social events.

With all that in the marco view, US companies, in the midst of third quarter earnings season, are, as has been the case for the past three years, struggling to find profits and any reason to be upbeat for the remainder of 2016 and into 2017.

There seems to be a dull thud re-occurring in the offices of CFOs and CEOs, that being the repeating sound of falling EPS and missed revenue figures, a double whammy for investors, though not many have fled the market as of this writing.

Thursday represents perhaps the biggest day of earnings season. Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon.com (AMZN), LinkedIn (LNKD) and Baidu (BIDU) are among companies set to report after the bell. Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Bristol-Meyers Squibb (BMY), Ford (F) and UPS (UPS) all report prior to the opening bell.

These results and some economic data (durable goods, pending home sales) will shape the day's trading. With just two days left in October, there's a slim chance that markets could rally back to positive for the past three months, which would be a good omen for the Hillary camp, but it is unlikely to happen unless some major news breaks that would spur a buying panic. It's happened before, but expect more oddities prior to election day next week.

Wednesday's Final Score:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,199.33, +30.06 (0.17%)

NASDAQ
5,250.27, -33.13 (-0.63%)

S&P 500
2,139.43, -3.73 (-0.17%)

NYSE Composite
10,528.19, -22.00 (-0.21%)

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Stocks Predict The Next President Should Be Trump

Wall Street people pride themselves largely upon their particular abilities, especially those who use other people's money (OPM) to wager, gamble, or speculate on investments.

They brag, they boast, some of them actually tell the truth from time to time about their overall performance in the markets, whether their specialty be in stocks, bonds, commodities, or currencies.

Claims by some that they have peculiar, timely, or otherwise savvy insights into the future - akin to soothsayers, fortune tellers and gypsy tarot card readers - are, as time goes by, either validated or proven worthless. A spotty track record is by no means a cause for shame or contrition. Rather, these various prognosticators continue to spew pablum, intending to coerce a generally ill-informed public that their positions are the ones that matter.

As the time until the general election dwindles to under two weeks, one thing the Wall Street elite have not - by and large - weighed in upon is the result of the presidential sweepstakes. That's probably for good reason. Like 95% of the general public, they aren't convinced of an outcome either in favor of Mr. Trump or Mrs. Clinton, but, few have expressed their sentiments on what will happen after either is elected.

While there are those who say that the stock market will take a hit if Donald Trump is the next president, few, if any, figure that a Clinton win would be bad for investors. Oddly enough, almost nobody is saying the stock market will roar whichever candidate wins.

That's a perspective that is based largely on stock market returns and historical fact. According to this CNN story, since 1944, the direction of the stock market between August 1 and October 31 has correctly predicted the outcome of the election a stunning 82% of the time.

The metric is startlingly simple. If the market is up during the three months prior to the election, the incumbent party wins. If the market is down, the challenger is swept into office.

As of this writing, that measure favors Donald J. Trump, the challenger, but only slightly. On July 29, the final trading day prior to August 1, the S&P 500 stood at 2,173.60. It closed on Tuesday at 2143.16, about 1 1/2 percent off during the span.

There are three trading days left in the predicted period. It's possible that a strong rally could lift the averages back above the August 1 level, though it is beginning to appear more gloomy for Mrs. Clinton, the more the media bashes Trump and ignores the continuous, outrageous, potentially criminal behavior of the former First Lady and Secretary of State.

With the markets set to open in about a half hour, futures are lower. If this trend continues, get ready for a Trump presidency and the ascendancy of a moralistic, populist, business-first new regime in Washington.

Change at the top and across the political spectrum would likely be a boon to the majority of working Americans. After all, they're the ones that really matter, right?

Tuesday Trauma:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,169.27, -53.76 (-0.30%)

NASDAQ
5,283.40, -26.43 (-0.50%)

S&P 500
2,143.16, -8.17 (-0.38%)

NYSE Composite
10,550.19, -41.12 (-0.39%)

Monday, October 10, 2016

Fearless Rick Predicts: Trump To Win In Landslide Victory

Dispensing with the usual market noise and fury, today let’s look at the political spectrum, in particular, the presidential race.

In the aftermath of the leaked Trump video, the further Wikileaks of Hillary Clinton’s speeches to the Wall Street elite, and Sunday night’s debate, a common theme has emerged. The Democrats have, as usual, nothing more than empty rhetoric and the politics of personal destruction.

Republican candidate Trump has been dealt a bag of lies, dirty tricks, one-sided media reportage and bias, inaccurate, dubious polling data, slurs, baits, and typical trash talk, but he has not folded, not has he bent to the pressure in the least.

While Donald Trump may not be the ideal Republican candidate, he is largely better than his Democrat rival, Hillary Clinton, whose over 30 years of public service have yielded no tangible, positive results for the majority of Americans.

Trump is correct in pointing out that the Democrats - for whom the African-American populace slavishly vote for in every election, be it local, state or national in scale - have done nothing to enhance the ling conditions of the black community. The same goes for nearly every other minority. The Democrats are full of promises and negligent on deliverance. It is the same tactic trotted out year after year, in election after election. Democrats preach equality and tolerance, but demonstrate neither.

It’s time for Americans to see through the Democrat party as nothing more than socialism on steroids. Every problem is solved by more policies, more spending, higher taxes, greater regulation. The majority of taxpaying people in this country (and even tax-avoiders) are - or should be - fed up with the dictates and policies promulgated by the left and they should be energized enough to put an end to it next month, when millions will make their voices heard through their votes.

There are no sure things in life, but if ever there was a moment for a complete convulsion in the fabric of American life, it is now. Eight years of Obama’s socialism has led to this moment. Mr. Trump has prevailed over all his Republican rivals, many of whom - as much a part of the elite status quo as the Democrats - have withdrawn their support or never supported the nominee at all.

Hillary Clinton is another empty suit. Donald Trump is a businessman who has had great success and celebrity over the years. The Democrats have tried in vain to denigrate and demonize him precisely because they are afraid of losing the election and increasingly desperate.

If the truth be known, most of the polls are so wickedly biased toward the Democrats (see this story by Sharyl Attkisson for more) they cannot be believed. This race is not even close. More and more people are being swayed by the power of Trump’s persuasion for a greater America, for a return to traditional values, for supporting the constitution, lowering taxes, eliminating regulations and improving the quality of life for the middle class.

There should be no doubt when the buttons are pushed or levers pulled. Donald Trump will win the presidential election in an absolute, stunning landslide on a scale of Ronald Reagan’s victory in 1980.

The only caveat - and it is a serious one - is if the election is rigged and stolen outright by the Democrats or the powers that be. Both sides have done it and there is a very good chance that if Clinton is seen as losing midday on November 8, all bets are off, all votes will be nullified electronically or by other means. It’s a real threat, but, otherwise, Donald Trump will win convincingly.

Monday's Markets:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,329.04, +88.55 (0.49%)

NASDAQ
5,328.67, +36.27 (0.69%)

S&P 500
2,163.66, +9.92 (0.46%)

NYSE Composite
10,682.71, +55.79 (0.53%)

Monday, October 3, 2016

Stocks Start Fourth Quarter With Losses

Whether or not this blue Monday proves to be ominous for equity investors in the newly-birthed quarter will be proven out over the coming weeks and months, but the roller coaster ride the major indices have taken the past few months have proven only that the market is confused, somewhat directionless, and hopelessly overvalued.

Just a little push in the downward direction could spell doom for stocks, but hopes are high for Hillary in the election and a continuation of the crony capitalism that spells M-O-N-E-Y for Wall Street.

So rigged is the game in the canyons of lower Manhattan that most CEOs, professional fund managers and just about anybody with any skin in the game in down with Clinton and more of the same, despite the fact that Mr. Trump is a born and bred New Yorker, a businessman and a hard-driving deal-maker.

The system is so collapsed, it is fast approaching a condition that puts it in need of serious surgery rather than simple triage.

Considering the up-and-down cycle of what passes for markets in America, today's little dip into the red probably will amount to nothing, and that's a non-cynical point of view.

Welcome to the fourth quarter.

Monday's Miss:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,253.85, -54.30 (-0.30%)

NASDAQ
5,300.87, -11.13 (-0.21%)

S&P 500
2,161.20, -7.07 (-0.33%)

NYSE Composite
10,689.47, -32.27 (-0.30%)

Monday, September 26, 2016

Stocks Slide Again; Is Market Anticipating A Trump Victory Or Government Shutdown?

Stocks fell for the second straight session, extending losses from Friday to open the new week.

Causes for the two-day selling spree are questionable, but Monday's New Home Sales release by the Commerce Department may be a good place to start. After surging in July, new home sales fell 7.6% nationally, following a July surge.

Perhaps even more troubling is that the median price of a new home sold in August was down 3.1% from July and down 5.3% from a year earlier.

That's a real problem because the home-selling business has been anything but brisk, though price increases were a good sign for the Federal Reserve, which is dying to find any hint of inflation (they love it; consumers hate it). Thus, if new homes are selling at a discount from the year earlier, one could probably safely assume that existing homes are seeing price pressure to the downside as well.

Extrapolating from what is normally regarded as the biggest single purchase in a person's life, the cost of a home (or rent) going lower is going to put the brakes on inflation in a very large way, perhaps in a way that many people looking to sell are not going to appreciate. Recall that the last housing bust was a scant eight years ago. There are still underwater homeowners in various stages of despair, though the numbers have eased significantly over the years.

A downturn in housing prices, while great for new buyers, are overall anathema for the economy. How that squares with Wall Street's ongoing love-hate affair with the Fed and the call for higher interest rates is as yet unknown, but, after last week's stall on raising rates there's the distinct possibility that the Fed has called the market's bluff for the final time.

A FOMC meeting is sceduled for the first week in November, just prior to the election, so there's almost zero probability that the Fed would raise rates at that point, upsetting not just the market but the political class as well. That leaves December as the last chance for the Fed to raise rates, and looking back at their last December hike (a market disaster), there's some thinking that the almighty Fed may not want to repeat that particular episode.

One other potentiality for the sudden downturn in stocks is that inside money is looking seriously at a Donald Trump victory in November. Tonight's first debate (of three) between the Donald and Hillary Clinton may be a watershed moment in US political history. The most recent polls have the two candidates nearly even, as Mr. Trump has eviscerated Clinton's large post-convention lead, especially in some key battleground states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

Why large investors may be nervous about a Trump victory is the gnawing, belly-aching suspicion that Trump may be good for small business but bad for big business. His platform is not well-formed, but, he has used the words "crony capitalism" to his populist advantage. It's code for "no more business as usual" which means many of the larger firms (think S&P 500) that have benefited from decades of competition-crushing regulations and legislation may be looking at a more level playing field which puts small businesses on a better footing, something with which they have no relevant experience. That opens up new possibilities that favor smaller competitors taking market share from larger ones, to the ultimate detriment of the US stock market, but probably to the betterment of the overall economy.

Not withstanding any other reasons to fear a Trump presidency, the elitists on Wall Street and in the nation's capitol simply do not know what to expect. That's why they're the status quo and Donald Trump spells big danger.

Another rationale for a market downturn is the continuing drama over keeping the federal government operating past this coming Friday. The president and congress are doing their usual dance of death surrounding a continuing resolution rater than an actual budget to avoid a government shutdown and the Friday deadline is looming large.

Lastly, this being the last week of September, maybe the marketeers are gearing up for an October to remember, as has occurred on numerous occasions in the past. Market crashes and corrections always seem to pop up in the harvest month, and this one offers even more uncertainty than usual.

Blue Monday:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,094.83, -166.62 (-0.91%)

NASDAQ
5,257.49, -48.26 (-0.91%)

S&P 500
2,146.10, -18.59 (-0.86%)

NYSE Composite
10,624.88, -93.11 (-0.87%)

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Volatility Returns As Stocks Retrace Friday's Losses

Writing just after noon on Tuesday, stocks seem to be in a certain funk over the future of not just corporate earnings, but the direction of the Federal Reserve and the outcome of the 2016 presidential race.

On the latter, Hillary Clinton's continued lying (even about her health, which is in terrible condition) may be costing her the election, to say nothing of the idea that many people who may have held their noses and voted for the Democrat status quo choice over the maverick Trump, may be changing their minds given that Hillary may not be able to effectively serve as president, yet alone make it to the finish line in the election process come November.

While Trump has held his tongue over Hillary's health issues, he continues to gain in the polls and in popularity with the American people. With the election less than two months away, any more gaffes by Clinton could prove fatal to her presidential aspirations, which, in the long run, would likely be a good thing for the American public.

Wall Street doesn't apparently appreciate the way things are going, though with Hillary losing ground, there's even less chance that the FOMC will announce a rate hike at their meeting next week. Trump's bashing of Janet Yellen earlier is also weighing on markets, and while the stock market may not like the way he's talking, as usual, he's speaking the unblemished truth: stocks are overpriced due to Fed meddling.

Is this how it all ends, with a Trump presidency and a wholesale cleansing of the sick economic policy apparatus?

We can only hope.

After Monday's dead-cat rally, stocks have given back all of those gains by midday, and then some. Get ready for a rocky ride this afternoon and more days of heightened volatility to come as the election takes precedence over all other economic and political events.

Thursday, September 1, 2016

FOMC Focus: Will Stocks Change Direction After Labor Day?

Today's headline offers a provocative suggestion, though the simple answer to the question is a flat-out "NO," simply because the overtly political Federal Reserve will not - under an circumstances - raise interest rates in September.

That is almost so widely accepted within the financial community as to make it nearly a fact, a fait accompli, a gospel truth.

There are any number of reasons why the FOMC will not raise the federal funds rate even one basis point at their upcoming meeting on September 20 and 21, not the least of which is the assumption that such a rash move would derail the presidential bid by the status quo candidate, the fair-haired-soon-to-be-liar-in-chief, Hillary Clinton.

Naturally, that's a one-sided argument which has nothing to do with economics, but the Fed has other issues behind their upcoming decision to stand pat on rates for the foreseeable future.

Among these issues are the ongoing candidacy of Mr. Donald J. Trump, who is seen as anathema to anything and everything establishment, and that means the Fed itself. A Trump victory in November would almost certainly foment much in the way of chaos, including a pre-emptive attack from the Fed itself, sensing an almost perfect opening to raise rates and crash the market, maybe even do away with the entire post-Bretton Woods arrangement via a wholesale financial collapse.

That might be fun, but the projections fro the US economy going forward are not, have not been for some time and will not be. That's the main reason the Fed is stuck at the near-zero bound, because not only the US economy, but that of almost all developed nations are not growing. Rather, they are growling with intense citizen upset, declining labor utilization rates and a demographic wall that current policies can and will never scale.

The Fed is boxed in, as are all central banks. They can't do anything except buy up more overpriced assets even though that effort has failed to produce their highly-anticipated inflation and associated growth. One might say that all the central bank coddling of the system has produced is a massive over-supply of everything and a deflationary vortex that challenges their Keynesian orthodoxy.

The Fed - unless Hillary Clinton is elected president, and even that's no clincher - is toast.

Thursday's Results:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,419.30, +18.42 (0.10)

NASDAQ
5,227.21, 13.99 (0.27%)

S&P 500
2,170.86, -0.09 (0.00%)
^NYA

NYSE Composite
10,771.91, +7.16 (0.07%)

Wednesday, August 3, 2016

Dow Ends 7-Day Losing Streak, But Who's Watching The Transports And NYSE Composite?

Markets can seem exuberant, sometimes, even over-exuberant, as has lately been the case, without reason.

The current environment is one of those times by which market movements cannot be rationally explained, or as the Maestro himself - former Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan - so aptly put it, the markets seem to be suffering from irrational exuberance.

This needs to be pointed out in the current context of manipulation and high-stakes politics between the Nah! Brexit vote and the very real threat that Donald Trump might somehow wrangle himself into the Oval Office come November... to the absolute terror of the elite status quo, including everyone from Warren Buffet to Mark Cuban to Janet Yellen and just about every member of congress and Wall Street hedge fund slickster.

Money Daily has recently been pointing out that the any positive developments by Mr. Trump are and have been met with scurrying, rat-like selling of shares on the equity markets by those with very thin, lizard-like skins, probably your average congressional insider and self-important hedge fund managers.

On the other side of the coin, there's the relentless marauding of the Fed, the central bank which is prohibited from buying or selling of equities (unlike the Bank of Japan, which is now a top 10 holder of 90% of the stocks listed on the NIKKEI 225), but which has ample resources by which to funnel money into stocks via proxies such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, and Merrill Lynch, the investment arm of Bank of America, or even the Bank of Japan, which, having run out of luck in the Nikkei, is probably more than willing to buy US stocks.

It's a safe bet that the Fed and their cronies halted and reversed the post-Brexit decline, sending the Dow and S&P 500 to all-time highs via options trading and positions on the VIX, the volatility index, widely parlayed by those in the hedging business.

In fact, days before the Brexit vote, heads of the Swiss, Canadian, US and Japanese central banks were already in collusion to overcome any nasty "turbulence" in the markets, as openly reported by none other than Bloomberg.

So, it shouldn't come as any stretch of the imagination that the same types who distort presidential polls and have the mainstream media wrapped around their little fingers should also keep stocks artificially high as long as it appears that Hillary Clinton will be elected president come November 8.

Once stocks got to extreme levels, a bell went off in the heads of the big traders, telling them to take profits, resulting in a seven-day sell-off (otherwise known as consolidation), culminating in Tuesday's near-100-point decline on the Dow.

Wednesday, the Dow just barely hung on for a small gain, as did the other indices, however, the recent highs achieved by the Dow can be seen as absolute phonies, when referenced to the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA), which sold-off and rebounded like other indexes post-Brexit, but did not attain new all-time highs (for the record, neither did the NASDAQ, nor the NYSE Composite, the broadest index of US stocks).

The Transports had a good run of it, topping out at 8048.09, but were 100 points shy of the all-time record, set back in April, 2015, at 8149.00.

The same is true on the NYSE Composite (NYA), which topped out recently at 10815.43, a far cry from May 2015, when the index stood proudly at 11254.87.

Taking away from this divergence in major markets is the idea that central banks and their friends can only influence so much. They often (make that, ALWAYS) leave bits and pieces of evidence of foul play scattered about. 100 or so points on the Transportation Average and over 400 points on the Composite shows just how sloppy and misguided their adventures into manipulation of not just stocks, but perceptions, have become.

Everybody watches the Dow and S&P. The transports and composite indices, not so much, or so they believe.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,355.00, +41.23 (0.23%)

NASDAQ
5,159.74, +22.00 (0.43%)

S&P 500
2,163.79, +6.76 (0.31%)

NYSE Composite
10,695.14, +34.01 (0.32%)

Thursday, July 28, 2016

As Hope For Hillary Fades, So Will Prices of Stocks

Another listless day was had on the equity exchanges, as stocks slipped in early (rigged) trading, then magically gained ground all day, with the Dow ending in the red while the NASDAQ and S&P posted incremental gains.

Oil continued to slip further away from recent, month-ago highs of $50 per barrel, closing in NY just above $41/barrel, roughly a 20% decline in a very short time. Drivers should begin to see the effects at the gas pump, as soon as higher-priced inventories are extinguished. Expect gas prices to fall back to levels seen in early Spring. Many areas in the Midwest and South are already seeing prices below $2.00 per gallon, a level seen as a panacea for economy.

The highest prices in the country are undeniably in the West, especially California, where high taxes and regulations push the price of fuel far beyond its production and profit price. Once again, we have our beneficent government to thank for wasting our money.

Winding down tonight is the Democratic National Convention, where Hillary Clinton will accept her party's nomination for president of the United States, along with running mate Tim Kaine, whose speech on Wednesday night is being criticized as being dull and boring.

More and more, it appears that the national mood is not pleasant, a boon to the campaign of Republican Donald Trump, who advocates for change.

Expect more slippage in stock prices as the elite begins to realize that their days in power may truly be numbered. Clinton is a miserable candidate, and, while Trump is no darling of the right, he is at least forthright and hopeful.

Clinton isn't getting any bump in the polls through the convention, which is usually the case. That's a bad omen for the status quo and the left.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,456.35, -15.82 (-0.09%)

NASDAQ
5,154.98, +15.17 (0.30%)

S&P 500
2,170.06, +3.48 (0.16%)

NYSE Composite
10,744.16, +4.40 (0.04%)

Monday, July 25, 2016

Monday Blues: Stocks Fall; Is It The Trump, Clinton, Sanders or Putin Effect?

Over the weekend, the political climate became highly charged with the release of thousands of emails from the servers of the Democratic National Committee courtesy of Wikileaks and, as some presume, the assistance of Russian operatives. The propaganda nailing Russia as the bad guy was already underway as of the Sunday news shows. It's very likely to be completely spurious.

The leaked emails revealed a concerted effort to swing the primary vote toward the favored candidate, Hillary Clinton, and away from upstart radical, Bernie Sanders. To say the least, the emails were scandalous and disgusting, revealing just how deeply ingrained the status quo has become, and the lengths to which they will plumb in order to have public opinion bend to their will.

Suffering the most from the fallout was DNC chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who was forced to announce her resignation as chair on Saturday. Ms. Schultz announced that she would gavel in the convention on Monday and gavel it out on Thursday.

Those plans fell completely apart on Monday as first, Ms. Schultz was shouted down as she attempted to address the Florida delegation, ironically, people from her own state. After being unceremoniously whisked from the stage, Ms. Schultz announced that she will not be associated with the convention in any way.

In two words: she's fired.

As has been mentioned on this blog in the past and as recently as the prior post which wrapped up last week, once the powers that be begin getting a whiff of a Donald Trump victory in November's presidential election, stocks will fall, leaving the Donald a mess not unlike what greeted Barack Obama in 2008.

So it is, when central banks and oligarchical politicians believe they can control not only markets, but the lives of the people investing in them.

The modern equivalent of torches and pitchforks are cellphone videos and anti-establishment signs.

Peace. It's a foreign concept in this period and the madness is swelling.

Monday's Politically-Charged Changes:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,493.06, -77.79 (-0.42%)

NASDAQ
5,097.63, -2.53 (-0.05%)

S&P 500
2,168.48, -6.55 (-0.30%)

NYSE Composite
10,752.43, -52.61 (-0.49%)

July 18-22: Stocks Level Out After Massive Gains

The huge run-up in stock prices appears to be running out of steam, or buyers, or both.

Since bottoming out post-Brexit, major US indices have ramped higher by nearly ten percent over just the past four weeks. The Dow, for instance, has gained over 1500 points while powering to new high after new high.

The most recent week, however, was the weakest in the last four, with the possible exception of the NASDAQ, which was up more than double its rivals in percentage terms.

This is not to say that the recent rally is over. Far from it, there is no sign of exhaustion in the ranks of central banks, especially the Fed, which will be pulling out all the stops to keep the narrative of an "improving economy" rolling through the week, highlighted by the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.

Following the Philly love-fest for Hillary Clinton (never mind the various email and other scandals surrounding the candidate and the rest of the Dems... they will be swept under the rug), the Fed will continue to pour money into stocks through their appointed agents right up until the election.

Setting up what could be one of the easiest buying opportunities in recent memory (though as memory serves, the past eight years haven't been too difficult for stock traders), stocks or index funds could be a very safe place over the coming three months.

A Trump victory in November would probably derail both the giddy narrative and the actual stock market rally, as the status quo would then find themselves on the defensive, with the White House in the hands of a non-politician, non-elitist, populist campaigner. Should Clinton capture the presidency, a slow decline might be the more likely scenario, as the wheels of industry continue their slow grind into mediocrity.

With so much uncertainty, investors have been seen hoarding hard assets. Paid-up real estate, precious metals, machinery and tools of trades can still be had at reasonable levels, and they should not lose much value over the longer term. In fact, they should appreciate quite nicely no matter what happens after November.

For The Week:
Dow: +54.30 (+0.2(%)
S&P 500: +13.29 (+0.61)
NASDAQ: +70.57 (+1.40)

Friday:
NASDAQ Composite
5,100.16, +26.26 (0.52%)

Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,570.85, +53.62 (0.29%)

S&P 500
2,175.03, +9.86 (0.46%)

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Too Much Drama: Brexit/Bremain And US Presidential Elections Are Sideshows To Be Ignored

Kids love drama. That's why they put on little shows for their friends, parents, grandparents, other siblings. They are also expert at throwing tantrums and acting out to get their own ways on things they like and/or don't like, or want to or don't want to do.

Typically, kids don't like certain foods (think vegetables), going to bed early or being cooped up in a classroom for 6-7 hours a day from the time they're six until seventeen or eighteen. If kids decide to go on to college, they may actually find themselves in classrooms until they're 21, 22 or even longer should they decide to attend graduate school, become a lawyer, doctor, or pursue a doctorate in any field of endeavor.

Of the three things kids don't like, it can be readily assumed that at least two of them are actually good for them, even after they cease being kids. For instance, vegetables (especially the non-GMO varieties) are proven to be good for overall health, vitality and longevity. Getting a good night's sleep is also a very healthy, albeit numb in the main, activity.

Going to school for a significant percentage of one's formative years is questionable. A solid education is admirable and achievable, though what constitutes such in public schools may not exactly fit the billing. Thus, the love of and use of drama to achieve ends is largely unjustified in the case of the wants (not needs) of people under the age of 20, i.e., kids.

Expanding this concept - that drama is unjustifiable - into adult life and interaction with mass media, might be useful in assessing current events, particularly the upcoming vote or referendum (tomorrow, Thursday, June 23) on whether Great Britain sh
ould remain or leave the European Union (otherwise known as Brexit or Bremain, depending upon one's point of view) and the drawn out affair that has become a nearly two-year ritual in choosing a president in the United States.

In terms of both events, the media time allotted to examining, reporting, tweeting, broadcasting, dissecting, analyzing, and otherwise trying to understand the issues has been, in a word, excessive.

In other words, the media, obsessed with having to fill countless hours of broadcast time (radio, TV, internet) and print space (newspapers, magazines, internet) has committed the undeniable sin of "too much drama." The British and American people have been overwhelmed with "news" on the impact of the British referendum and the American election.

Both events will take place in the span of one day, yet the time allocated to it by the media exceeds that period by orders of magnitude.

Like kids, the media clamors for attention, trying to convince the public (and maybe even themselves) of the overall importance of these events. Truth is, neither will matter that much to the normal functioning of an average adult life. Whether Britain remains in the EU or not will not have dramatic impact on one's individual day-to-day activities, nor will the choice of Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton for Americans.

Mainstream media would rather have you and I and everyone else in the world glued to their TVs and radios and internet sites and newspapers non-stop, forever and ever, no matter how trivial or important the current crop of stories, analyses, and perceptions.

Most adults (and kids, too) have a routine in their lives which goes something like this: get up, clean up, work, eat, relax, sleep. In between those major activities - and it is possibly an amazing discovery that roughly a third of that time is devoted to sleeping, and maybe another third to working - people do everything else, including, in no particular order, having sex, voting, playing, raising kids, tending a garden, pursuing a hobby, reading, listening to or viewing things other than what the mainstream media spouts effusively, and a plethora of other mundane activities.

The point is that the elections fall into this diffuse area occupied in the large by "everything else." Brexit and the presidential elections barely even register on the life radar in terms of importance, meaning that whatever way it goes, individuals (aka, people) will go about their lives in largely the same way as before the "monumental" voting.

That the media devotes so much time, effort and money to events which are, in general terms, non-eventful, uncovers the abject failure of life in the information age. If you're in your 60s, for instance, you've lived through the administrations of as many as 12 presidents (Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Clinton, George W. Bush, Obama) and are now on the cusp for a 13th. Whether the choice is Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will, in the long route of history, be conspicuously inconsequential.

From that timely perspective, each and every one of these presidents has done a fair job of keeping the American public somewhat safe, secure and happy, protected the constitution to varying degrees, and also kept the American public in check, or, kept the general population from violent rebellion. On that final point, we're probably a bit more civilized these days, choosing to simply ignore the government as much as possible than openly rebelling against it. That kind of stuff generally gets one killed, maimed, or jailed, none of which are desirable outcomes.

As for the Brits, Money Daily doesn't have much interaction with our former colonial masters, but England seems to be a somewhat genteel and fair place to live. The current living residents of England will cast their votes tomorrow, but the effects will be barely noticeable, likely for decades. People will adjust and adapt.

While Brits and Yanks alike are concerned about the deterioration of their civil liberties - a theme common to the Brexit/Bremain vote and the US presidential election - it seems a slow, drawn-out process and also one to which one can adjust. Just like eating your vegetables and getting a good night's sleep are desirable and contribute to a better life, ignoring elections and votes and avoiding government at all levels is probably the most prudent behavior.

And prudence, from Aristotle to Aquinas to Pascal, is a vastly more desirable human trait than relying on personal drama to achieve one's desires.

+++++++++++ +++++++++++

Today in the markets, perhaps taking an unattributable cue from the above essay, there wasn't much in the way of panic, fear, greed, avarice, sloth, joy, or any other emotion. Equity markets were fairly flat, owing to the unforgivable media rhetoric surrounding tomorrow's Brexit/Bremain referendum having wrung out every possible trading scheme or maneuver.

Panic? Thy Name is Brexit:
S&P 500: 2,085.45, -3.45 (0.17%)
Dow: 17,780.83, -48.90 (0.27%)
NASDAQ: 4,833.32, -10.44 (0.22%)

Crude Oil 48.95 +0.20% Gold 1,269.10 -0.27% EUR/USD 1.1294 +0.41% 10-Yr Bond 1.69 -0.71% Corn 395.00 -0.32% Copper 2.13 +0.78% Silver 17.28 -0.23% Natural Gas 2.91 -2.70% Russell 2000 1,148.97 -0.42% VIX 21.22 +14.83% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4691 +0.15% USD/JPY 104.4400 -0.32%

Thursday, May 26, 2016

Flat Is Good Says Yahoo! Finance, Which Should Know



"Why a flat day is good for the markets"
screams the headline on Yahoo! Finance at the close of trading on Thursday.

Of course closing flat is good. Up is good, down is good, flat is good. Darn, the markets are even good when they're closed.

It's all about the narrative, with the financial media desperately trying to keep convincing an ever-shrinking number of "home-gamers" (trtaders with their own individual accounts), 401k holders, and other interested parties that the economy - and the stock market in particular - have never been better, or at least to convince themselves that they are convincing somebody.

It's a complete crock.

The global economy is, and has been, on its knees since the fall of 2008. Everything after that is a facade, made possible by trillions of dollars spent by the Federal Reserve and matching amounts of yen, yuan, euros and rupees by corresponding central banks, stock buybacks, income sheet fraud, mark-to-fantasy accounting, high valuations and the lack of any real price discovery mechanism.

It's a sham.

Central bankers are idiots who have walled themselves off from the general population and can't seem to find their way out of the boxed-in condition they've created for themselves.

So, we have Trump and Sanders (forget Clinton, she's a has-been, and a poor candidate who cannot win in a general election) vying to be the most powerful man in the world (don't tell Mario Draghi or Janet Yellen, though), an economy that can't produce nominal growth of more then two percent, stupid wars, uncontrollable mass migration, and a host of other problems.

But, a flat day is all good, all the time. Glad Yahoo Got the memo. They've been flat (or down) for a long time. Love ya some Marissa Mayer (Yahoo CEO). She's cute. She's smart. She's blonde. She's... no, don't go there.

She's an idiot, a poser, a fraud. Just take a look at Yahoo's performance since she became CEO. Courtiers to the company are looking at a take-under sometime late this year or early next. The $35-ish share price is a bit rich for their tastes. Something more like $18-24 may be more like it.

Flat Is In... Again!
S&P 500: 2,090.10, -0.44 (0.02%)
Dow: 17,828.29, -23.22 (0.13%)
NASDAQ: 4,901.77, +6.88 (0.14%)

Crude Oil 49.33 -0.46% Gold 1,220.00 -0.31% EUR/USD 1.1193 +0.31% 10-Yr Bond 1.82 -2.51% Corn 407.75 +0.74% Copper 2.10 -0.05% Silver 16.34 +0.52% Natural Gas 2.15 -1.51% Russell 2000 1,140.39 -0.06% VIX 13.67 -1.65% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4665 -0.25% USD/JPY 109.7650 -0.39%

Wednesday, March 16, 2016

FOMC Leaves Rates Unchanged, Turns More Dovish; Wedbush: Stocks Crash If Trump Wins

Stock junkies got their fix on Wall Street today, as the FOMC not only kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 1/4 to 1/2%, but reversed course on their planned four rate hikes in 2016, reducing the outlook to two, which, in the nuanced parlance that can only come from crony central bankers, means one more rate hike in 2016, likely not until September, at the earliest.

Talking heads from the various analyst camps spoke of a potential June hike, though, judging from the Fed's past actions, later, rather than sooner, would be the more likely timing. With US general elections coming in November, the Fed - no longer an altruistic entity, but a purely political one - a September rate cut would produce maximum chaos, which is surely the ongoing plan.

Not to put too cynical a spin on it, but the Federal Reserve has become completely politicized under Janet Yellen, with plenty of assistance and guidance by the mother hens which dominate policy from the White House. Employing high-sounding verbiage and the trappings and aura of majesty, the Fed has managed to hypnotize global markets and US citizens with their incredible blend of experimental policy and garbled, mangled language.

What the Fed has accomplished is nothing more than a furtherance of the ongoing wealth transfer from the distressed middle and lower classes to the uber-wealthy, while shutting out innovation, creativity and entrepreneurial spirit.

In essence, they are the ultimate destroyer of the American economy via globalist intentions and actions.

With their latest salvo of lick-spittle jawboning, they perpetuate the counterfeit of the US dollar and the fraud on savers which began in earnest with the financial collapse in 2008-09.

Stock promoters couldn't be happier, sending the major indices to their highest points since early January. With no impediments standing between them and median price-earnings ratios approaching pre-1929 levels, stocks are poised to completely erase the losses incurred through the first six weeks of the year.

With today's close, the Dow and S&P are within one strong day of getting even for the annum; the NASDAQ has a little more work to do.

December 31, 2015 closing prices:
Dow: 17,425.03
S&P: 2,043.94
NASDAQ: 5,007.41

Today's Fed-jacking:
S&P 500: 2,027.22, +11.29 (0.56%)
Dow: 17,325.76, +74.23 (0.43%)
NASDAQ: 4,763.97, +35.30 (0.75%)

Crude Oil 38.49 +5.92% Gold 1,264.00 +2.68% EUR/USD 1.1227 +1.08% 10-Yr Bond 1.9380 -1.07% Corn 368.25 -0.07% Copper 2.25 +0.94% Silver 15.64 +2.48% Natural Gas 1.87 +0.97% Russell 2000 1,074.51 +0.74% VIX 14.99 -10.99% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4269 +0.79% USD/JPY 112.5475 -0.53%

In what has to be the #1 hit piece on Donald Trump from the Wall Street crony capitalists - via Yahoo! and CNBC, Wedbush's director of equity sales, Ian Winer (shouldn't that be I'm a Whiner?) says stocks will crash 50% if Trump is elected president.

Here's a link to the article and video (and some easy comments), and if you just want the video, go here!

CNBC, the #1 financial bull--it network, doesn't want to mention that stocks should fall 50% anyhow, and the entire economy will be gutted if Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders wins the election.

https://screen.yahoo.com/trump-catastrophic-stocks-wedbush-214000793.html

One of the better comments, by commentator takebreathandthink:

It's true, the markets will crash 50%. Also, the seas will turn to blood, meteors will rain down from the heavens, swarms of locusts will kill all of the crops in the world, every volcano will erupt, earthquakes will rip apart the continents, and the first born of everyone in the world will die (thank God I'm the youngest in my family).

Inquiring minds want to know why Mr. Winer didn't call for a 60% or 80% crash. After all, if you're going to trash someone, why go just halfway?

Vote Trump. Wall Street hates him.

Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Stars Align for Markets Amid Super Tuesday March Madness

While the Dems and Reps fight in various primaries for the right to represent as a party leader of the USA, US equity markets calmly said adieu at the opening bell and never gave a backward glance.

Tuesday's advance was one of the top three of the year, pushing off from the 50-day moving average on the Dow, which may well have been the anointed starting point for this leg of the extended rally. The close today was at the best level in nearly two months, something of a needed salve for banged-up bulls.

While there was little in the way of encouraging news for stocks to sound off so vociferously, there was certainly no absence of chart-wise subjectivism from which to spark.

As for a relationship to Donald Trump's or Hillary Clinton's seemingly unstoppable rise to become the nominee of their respective parties, there is probably none, though wiser people have made dumber bets that Hillary will be the eventual next president and further take out the case that she will be good for the economy. That happens to be the confirmed thinking of the status quo, which sees more Clinton-esque policies as somehow good for Wall Street (note: big hitters on the street have given heartily to her campaign and to the Clinton Foundation, whereas Mr. Trump has been largely self-funded).

Even bonds were in alignment with the general mood, the 10-year note closing at a multi-week high of 1.83%.

S&P 500: 1,978.35, +46.12 (2.39%)
Dow: 16,865.08, +348.58 (2.11%)
NASDAQ: 4,689.60, +131.65 (2.89%)

Crude Oil 34.39 +1.90% Gold 1,236.60 +0.18% EUR/USD 1.0871 -0.12% 10-Yr Bond 1.83 +5.40% Corn 356.00 -0.28% Copper 2.15 +0.63% Silver 14.92 +0.01% Natural Gas 1.74 +1.46% Russell 2000 1,054.49 +1.99% VIX 17.70 -13.87% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.3950 +0.17% USD/JPY 113.9270 +1.32%