Stocks Down Sharply Before Mystery Buyers Catch Falling Knife

The Dow was down 335 point early in the day, but some investors who apparently know more than anybody else stepped in and cut those losses by nearly 200 points by the close of trading.

Let that sink in for a moment.

Who are these savvy speculators? Why did they choose to buy this particular dip at this moment in time. Surely there have been better buying opportunities in the recent past.

Central banks run the markets and can ruin the markets at their own whim.

Keep that in mind always, but especially on days when losses are trimmed inter-day.

Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
8/1/18	25,333.82	-81.37	-81.37
8/2/18	25,326.16	-7.66	-89.03
8/3/18	25,462.58	+136.42	+55.05
8/6/18	25,502.18	+39.60	+94.65
8/7/18	25,628.91	+126.73	+221.38
8/8/18	25,583.75	-45.16	+176.22
8/9/18	25,509.23	-74.52	+101.70
8/10/18	25,313.14	-196.09	-94.39
8/13/18	25,187.70	-125.44	-219.83
8/14/18	25,299.92	+112.22	-107.61
8/15/18	25,162.41	-137.51	-245.12

At the Close, Wednesday, August 15, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,162.41, -137.51 (-0.54%)
NASDAQ: 7,774.12, -96.78 (-1.23%)
S&P 500: 2,818.37, -21.59 (-0.76%)
NYSE Composite: 12,723.09, -112.22 (-0.87%)

Stocks Post Gains As Turkey Currency Crisis Moves Off Front Page

Stocks rebounded sharply on Tuesday, ending a series of lower closes which saw the Dow drop four straight sessions.

Gains were made in response to the Turkey story moving off page one and onto the list of disturbing problems in the global economy. For what it's worth, thanks to the widespread use of computer algorithms, 21st century stock markets have become more a kind of knee-jerk referendum on current financial and political news, as opposed to the 20th century model with discounted future earnings.

Thus, measurements such as p/e ratios are shunned in favor of more momentum-style observations and manipulations and old models for valuations are routinely disregarded as old hat. In conjunction with the dominant 24-hour news cycle, trading in robust markets such as are available in the US and other developed countries has become a day-to-day operation for many of the greater brokerages.

No longer content with 10-20% annual returns, the proliferation of options, futures, ETFs and other market-distorting, derivative opportunities offer potential for hedging, pair trades, and a myriad of other exotic strategies, schemes, and systems.

Thus, when a currency fails, such as happened in Venezuela and is currently underway in Turkey, markets are prone to react with immediacy before returning to the status quo.

That's the story with today's gains, though the larger issue remains unresolved. The markets have had their say and now move on to the next big thing. This manner of shoulder-shrugging complacency is what makes markets more and more fragile, as, with each big event that has an initial response but no resolution, the underlying morass of problematic financial issues piles higher and higher.

Since the financial crisis of 2008-09, markets have increasingly operated inside a vacuum, fitted with appropriate blinders to geo-political changes and financial disruptions. It's assumed that central banks, which now control almost all of global finance, can handle any issues that may pop up, either with massive buying, interest rate adjusting, or soothing words from the top-most chiefs.

It's an odd way to make a buck, but that's the norm, for now.

Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
8/1/18	25,333.82	-81.37	-81.37
8/2/18	25,326.16	-7.66	-89.03
8/3/18	25,462.58	+136.42	+55.05
8/6/18	25,502.18	+39.60	+94.65
8/7/18	25,628.91	+126.73	+221.38
8/8/18	25,583.75	-45.16	+176.22
8/9/18	25,509.23	-74.52	+101.70
8/10/18	25,313.14	-196.09	-94.39
8/13/18	25,187.70	-125.44	-219.83
8/14/18	25,299.92	+112.22	-107.61

At the Close, Tuesday, August 14, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,299.92, +112.22 (+0.45%)
NASDAQ: 7,870.89, +51.19 (+0.65%)
S&P 500: 2,839.96, +18.03 (+0.64%)
NYSE Composite: 12,835.31, +71.65 (+0.56%)

Weekend Wrap: Friday's Pathetic Finish Prelude To Sell The News Fireworks

Stocks ended the week in a rather disturbing manner, with all the major indices limping home nearly unchanged for the day. That such a disappointment would occur on what's normally an options expiration day (it was), the lack of interest and volatility can be seen as a sign that either a) everybody who is anybody is on vacation, or, b) the market has reached saturation levels and is about to make a short term reversal.

None of the four averages followed at Money Daily closed more than one tenth of one percent from the previous day's finish. Trading was akin to a grandparent's canasta tournament. Nothing was risked. Nothing was lost. Nothing was gained.

Friday's trading can also be seen as an thumbnail sketch for the week. Within narrow ranges, the majors all finished up the week not far from where they had begun. It was simply one of the dullest weeks of trading in recent memory.

As expressed in Thursday's post, "Crossroads," there appears to be a stopping point for everything, especially the Dow Industrials at the level of 25,000- 25,300. The Dow was weakened materially in February, and, despite glowing employment and unemployment figures, plus an expected second quarter GDP estimate of over four percent to be made public this coming week (8:30 am EDT, Friday) the industrial average has yet to re-approach the previous all-time high (26,616.71, January 23, 2018).

With such a well-telegraphed number expected, a 4% GDP for the second quarter is likely already well-baked into most portfolio cakes, thus it may be wise to sit out this particular glowing government data headline release.

That the new high event continues to fade into memory without the Dow making a significant rally attempt tells a great deal about current market conditions. It signals that there is something seriously damaged in the economy, and it's probably not confined to the United States, since the central banks have acted as first-movers and lenders of last resort since 2008-09.

Change is afoot, and with change there are usually winners and a good share of casualties along the way. A major shakeout in the market is long overdue, despite the united forces of central banks forestalling such a watershed event. This has been the overriding theme of the past decade. While it may not end this week or next, it will end, and the result will be a general decline of 30-50 percent in major stock indices.

Otherwise, all the math in the world can be throw out the nearest window.

In the meantime, trade cautiously with an eye on fundamentals, which eventually will guide the way.

Dow Jones Industrial Average July Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
7/2/18	24,307.18	+35.77	+35.77
7/3/18	24,174.82	-132.36	-96.59
7/5/18	24,345.44	+181.92	+85.33
7/6/18	24,456.48	+99.74	+185.07
7/9/18	24,776.59	+320.11	+505.18
7/10/18	24,919.66	+143.07	+648.25
7/11/18	24,700.45	-219.21	+429.04
7/12/18	24,924.89	+224.44	+653.48
7/13/18	25,019.41	+94.52	+748.00
7/16/18	25,064.36	+44.95	+792.95
7/17/18	25,119.89	+55.53	+848.48
7/18/18	25,199.29	+79.40	+927.88
7/19/18	25,064.50	-134.79	+793.09
7/20/18	25,058.12	-6.38	+786.71

At the Close, Friday, July 20, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,058.12, -6.38 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 7,820.20, -5.10 (-0.07%)
S&P 500: 2,801.83, -2.66 (-0.09%)
NYSE Composite: 12,789.91, +3.43 (+0.03%)

For the Week:
Dow: +38.71 (+0.15%)
NASDAQ: -5.78 (-0.07%)
S&P 500: +0.52 (+0.02%)
NYSE Composite: +20.41 (+0.16%)

Worst Dead Cat Bounce Ever As Stocks Struggle For Gains

Usually, after stocks have suffered a significant setback - as occurred Monday - on the following day traders look for what's known as a "dead cat bounce."

The term comes from the idea that even a dead cat dropped from a great height would at least bounce to some degree, the analogy to the downward trend of stocks from the previous day and the subsequent "bounce" on the morrow.

Today's dead cat bounce was more like a dead cat rollover, as stocks barely budged from the lower levels set in place on Monday. The Dow was up by as much as 130 points, but sellers took the reins again late in the session, knocking 100 points off the Dow while similar percentage moves were witnessed on the various other indices.

What this indicates is that there's no confidence in stocks presently, mainly because they are still, for the most part, wildly overvalued, and the conditions for another gigantic waterfall event are evident in the market.

Stability is what the market craves, and there is none to be found. Traders are pushing buttons almost at random, buying this or that, holding for seconds or maybe minutes, and unloading for instant, albeit tiny, profits. There are a multitude of evils circulating through markets presently. From the still-evolving trade war to the Fed's insistence on raising interest rtes in the face of stubbornly docile global economic backdrop to buyback-fueled phony earnings reports (due out over the next four to five weeks), all of the elements are in place for a full-on panic.

With assistance from central banks and their foolhardy schemes to keep stocks elevated, stocks are in a fragile, utterly resistible state of affairs. Everybody is holding some; nobody wants to admit defeat by selling, but little by little the perverse undesirability of stock certificates is beginning to emerge. Everybody wants a way out, and the only way out is to sell, and to sell quickly, but quietly, which is an impossible task.

This cat didn't bounce much at all and the only thing holding the stock market together is the willingness of traders of large positions to not cause a panic. Eventually, there will be no choice but to sell, everything, at once, because there simply aren't any buy-the-dip morons left in the casino.

It appears that luck has run out of the gambling hall and it's chasing a dead cat down Wall Street.

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
6/1/18	24,635.21	+219.37	+219.37
6/4/18	24,813.69	+178.48	+397.85
6/5/18	24,799.98	-13.71	+384.14
6/6/18	25,146.39	+346.41	+730.55
6/7/18	25,241.41	+95.02	+825.57
6/8/18	25,316.53	+75.12	+900.69
6/11/18	25,322.31	+5.78	+906.47
6/12/18	25,320.73	-1.58	+904.89
6/13/18	25,201.20	-119.53	+785.36
6/14/18	25,175.31	-25.89	+759.47
6/15/18	25,090.48	-84.83	+674.64
6/18/18	24,987.47	-103.01	+571.63
6/19/18	24,700.21	-287.26	+284.37
6/20/18	24,657.80	-42.41	+241.96
6/21/18	24,461.70	-196.10	+45.86
6/22/18	24,580.89	+119.19	+165.05
6/25/18	24,252.80	-328.09	-163.04
6/26/18	24,283.11	+30.31	-132.73

At the Close, Tuesday, June 26 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,283.11, +30.31 (+0.12%)
NASDAQ: 7,561.63, +29.62 (+0.39%)
S&P 500: 2,723.06, +5.99 (+0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 12,509.72, +28.12 (+0.23%)

Stocks Crash Post-Fed Rate Hikes, But The Media Will Still Falsely Blame President Trump

Here are just a few of the headline items for the week that ended with two disastrous days after the FOMC policy rate decision to raise the federal funds rate to 1.50-1.75%, the sixth rate hike in the last 27 months and probably the one largest policy mistake in the history of the Federal Reserve System, an unconstitutional private banking system that has wreaked havoc on not only the economy of the United States of America, but of the entire planet.

Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 426 points, closing out the week at it's lowest level since November 22, 2017. The Dow is off nearly 1500 points for the month of March, a worse decline than that of February. In just the past week, the Dow has shed some 1410 points, a 5.67% drop.

The S&P 500 fell 5.9% on the week, the biggest drop in more than two years.

The NASDAQ 100 plunged 7.3% in the week, the most since August 2015. All of the major averages are negative for the year, except for the NASDAQ.

Scapegoating the tariffs put forward by President Trump has been the sport of the week on the likes of CNN, NBC, CBS, ABC. Surely, the Sunday talk shows will be hooting and hollering over what bad judgement the president has shown, when, in fact, it is the Federal Reserve's radical policies over the past ten years that have caused major distortions on Wall Street, a false sense of security in stocks as sound investments, impoverishment of many retirees who were denied any meaningful interest income on their savings due to the Fed's zero interest rate policy that prevailed from 2008 though 2015.

Meanwhile, the Fed, in a position to cause much further damage to the economy by raising rates while the nation is heavily indebted, has done just so, and has not backed off from its planned position to unwind its bloated balance sheet, and actually increase its sales of securities in the second half of 2008.

While the tariffs President Trump has put forward are certain to cause some disruption in some segments of the economy, they are not, on their own merit, the ultimate cause for a stock market collapse, such as is occurring presently.

There can be no other culprit than the Federal Reserve for the recent stock market volatility and massive outflows from stocks. Their policies have been the guiding force before, during and after the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-09, so there should be no doubting that their policies are still guiding investment decisions.

The entire global economic structure is currently under assault by coordinated central bank intervention, ongoing massive stock and bond buying and selling beyond their charters, and the continuing issuance of debt as fiat money on a global basis.

From the US federal government to individual citizens, the signs of financial stress are at breaking points. The federal government, already "officially" $21 trillion in debt, on Friday passed an omnibus spending bill of $1.3 trillion, causing further debt issuance and higher debt servicing costs thanks to the Fed's rate increases.

Corporations, which have binged on stock buybacks since 2009 and most recently increased their level of indebtedness and slothful management with the recent repatriation of an estimated $2 trillion based on the tax reform enacted by congress and singed into law by the president recently.

Individuals are more indebted than ever before, with credit card and student debt at all-time highs, variable rate mortgages increasingly difficult to service while incomes have barely budged for the past 20 years.

Additionally, the tax burden on some of the wealthiest Americans, with incomes over $100,000 per year, is upwards of 50%, enslaving these people to endless payments for governments (local, state, and federal) that have displayed absolutely no fiscal restraint.

Continued declines in the stock market are going to impact pension funds throughout the world, both pubic and private. Most public pension funds are massively underfunded, and heavily invested in stocks. A severe downturn - which has just begun - will bankrupt these entities, causing them to renew on promises made to workers.

A heavily-concentrated media will assure the public that the stock market collapse is entirely the fault of one man, President Donald J. Trump, while the true criminals of extortion and debt slavery are the central banks and their private, unconstitutional banking system, which has been favored and kept afloat by a supine congress.

Dow Jones Industrial Average March Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
3/1/18	24,608.98	-420.22	-420.22
3/2/18	24,538.06	-70.92	-491.14
3/5/18	24,874.76	+336.70	-154.44
3/6/18	24,884.12	+9.36	-145.08
3/7/18	24,801.36	-82.76	-227.84
3/8/18	24,895.21	+93.85	-133.99
3/9/18	25,335.74	+440.53	+306.54
3/12/18	25,178.61	-157.13	+149.41
3/13/18	25,007.03,	-171.58	-22.17
3/14/18	24,758.12	-248.91	-271.08
3/15/18	24,873.66	+115.54	-155.54
3/16/18	24,946.51	+72.85	-82.69
3/19/18	24,610.91	-335.60	-418.29
3/20/18	24,727.27	+116.36	-301.93
3/21/18	24,682.31	-44.96	-346.89
3/22/18	23,957.89	-724.42	-1071.31
3/22/18	23,533.20	-424.69	-1496.00

At the Close, Friday, March 23, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 23,533.20, -424.69 (-1.77%)
NASDAQ: 6,992.67, -174.01 (-2.43%)
S&P 500: 2,588.26, -55.43 (-2.10%)
NYSE Composite: 12,177.70, -199.69 (-1.61%)

For the Week:
Dow: -1413.31 (-5.67%)
NASDAQ: -489.32 (-6.54%)
S&P 500: -163.75 (-5.95%)
NYSE Composite: -606.68 (-4.75%)

Is The Global Economy About To Roll Over?

Recent pullbacks in stocks, and, more importantly, their inability to recover, is a sure sign that trouble lies directly ahead for the global elite chieftains of central banks which have dominated economics since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008.

The central banks are not the only culprits when it comes to how poorly economies of countries are engaged, elected and unelected officials in government need at least a share of the blame. Both parties promote endless debt in a finite world, a construct which cannot endue without obvious pitfalls and the troublesome realities of mathematics.

Central banks issue currency as debt. Politicians tax and spend money they don't have. Between the two, the only profiteers are those large enough to engage and/or endanger the system, i.e., very, very rich people and large banking interests, otherwise known as commercial banks, investment banks, insurance companies and ultra-large, multi-national, monopolistic corporations like McDonald's, Wal-Mart, Google, Facebook, the six big oil companies.

Nothing against big companies and very, very rich people, except that they've benefitted from a very, very unlevel playing field of economics which takes - by way of interest, taxes, and various fees - from the common and remits to the oligarchical controllers of said economies.

This world is ending because of inertia and entropy. Individuals and small business cannot keep up with rising taxes, inflating prices the result of increasing interest rates. Credit has skyrocketed near all-time highs in America, and the wallets of those individuals tasked with repayment are thin - as thin as they've been since 1999, the last time incomes kept pace with inflation or the meanderings and maneuverings of the central banks and governments.

The stock market is not a cause of wealth or decline. It is a symptom, and it is breaking down.

It's only a matter of time before the symptom of excessive valuation falls prey to the reality of diminishing returns.

Dow Jones Industrial Average March Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
3/1/18	24,608.98	-420.22	-420.22
3/2/18	24,538.06	-70.92	-491.14
3/5/18	24,874.76	+336.70	-154.44
3/6/18	24,884.12	+9.36	-145.08
3/7/18	24,801.36	-82.76	-227.84

At The Close, Wednesday, March 7, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,801.36, -82.76 (-0.33%)
NASDAQ: 7,396.65, +24.64 (+0.33%)
S&P 500: 2,726.80, -1.32 (-0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 12,707.01, -13.76 (-0.11%)

Despite Relatively Hot CPI, Stocks Rip Higher

What's that old saying?

It's something like... "don't wish too hard, you may get what you want."

Well, it applies to the Fed, ECB, BoJ and other central banks, which have been screaming for higher inflation ever since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-09.

On Wednesday, they got some of the "good" news. The CPI for January came in with a gain of 0.54 month-over-month, the biggest increase since January of 2017. Being that both January of this and last year were the high points for CPI, it might be a statistical anomaly, though that thought seemingly hasn't crossed the minds of any economic reporters.

Higher consumer prices in January, however, didn’t substantially alter the overall picture on inflation. The increase in the CPI over the past 12 months remained unchanged at 2.1%.

After stripping out volatile gas and food, the more closely followed core rate of inflation rose 0.3% last month. The 12-month rate of core inflation was also flat at 1.8%.

So, once stock players digested the news, which was released an hour prior to the opening bell, futures nosedived, stocks opened deep in the red, but, within an hour, it was off to the races, despite interest rates - especially the 10-year-note - rising sharply.

The 10-year-note popped over 2.9% yield, while gold and silver - traditional inflation hedges - soared throughout the day.

Seems nobody really knows what will happen, though many profess to have deep inner knowledge of how economics actually works.

Maybe we're all just being played for fools.

Pull my finger...

Dow Jones Industrial Average February Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
2/1/18	26,186.71	+37.32	+37.32
2/2/18	25,520.96	-665.75	-628.43
2/5/18	24,345.75	-1,175.21	-1,803.64
2/6/18	24,912.77	+567.02	-1,236.62
2/7/18	24,893.35	-19.42	-1,256.04
2/8/18	23,860.46	-1,032.89	-2288.93
2/9/18	24,190.90	+330.44	-1958.49
2/12/18	24,601.27	+410.37	-1548.12
2/13/18	24,640.45	+39.18	-1508.94
2/14/18	24,893.49	+253.04	-1255.90

At the Close, Wednesday, February 14, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,893.49, +253.04 (+1.03%)
NASDAQ: 7,143.62, +130.10 (+1.86%)
S&P 500: 2,698.63, +35.69 (+1.34%)
NYSE Composite: 12,746.72, +172.35 (+1.37%)

Markets Turn Ugly As Bond Yields Soar in Ground Hog Day Massacre

Even as January's non-farm payroll report painted a rosy employment picture, adding 200,000 jobs for the month, the 10-year note crested over the 2.80% level on Friday, sending stocks into as vicious tailspin in a mid-winter crash.

The nearly 666-point decline on the Dow was the sixth largest one-day point drop in market history, though in percentage terms was the mildest of the top ten, all of which have occurred in the 21st century.

The fact that all of the major point losses happened since 2000 is made obvious by the enormity of the index, still standing at more then 25,000, an epochal figure in market terms. Notably, the Dow Jones Industrial Average first passed the 10,000 mark in 1999, amid the notorious dotcom boom, prior to the dotcom bust, which took a full three-and-a-half years to fully play out.

Friday's drop was the largest since a 634.76-point loss on August 8, 2011 which sent the blue chips down 5.55%, to 10,809.85. Noting the relative percentage puniness of the Ground Hog Day Massacre, it may be wise to expect larger point and percentage losses in the near to mid-range future (three months to one year).

While it may be simplistic to point to the gaudy valuations placed on equities in the current market dynamic, it is nonetheless a significant factor in the current shaky environment and as good a reason to sell out of stocks as any, though the other major catalyst - rising bond yields - provides a more granular perspective.

The long end of the Treasury yield curve was extended on Friday as the 30-year bond smashed through the psychological 3.00% barrier, signaling to long-term investors that the aging bull market in stocks (and bonds) may be coming to a quick conclusion.

Bull and bear markets do not begin nor end in vacuums, which is why this most recent pullback should be regarded as a change of tone in market functioning. Nothing gos on forever, and empirical data suggests that while stocks have enjoyed salad days for years, the general economy and the welfare of millions of Americans has been less than a full meal.

It's easy to look at macro data and conclude that all is well and central banks have the markets and global economies under control, but sometimes one needs to look around and actually see the mountains of debt, stock buybacks, and central bank meddling which have fueled the gigantic recovery and historic stock gains.

Money is undoubtably becoming tighter and the labor market - according to government figures - is straining at full employment, but wages gains have not nearly kept pace with either inflation or taxes for at least the past 15 years. A breaking point is coming, wherein multi-national corporate behemoths are going to have to sacrifice the massive salaries bestowed upon top executives in exchange for pay increases for Mr. and Mrs. America.

With the Federal Reserve ready to hike the federal funds rate another 25 basis points at their upcoming March FOMC rate policy meeting, the world's central bank seeks to create a buffer against an almost certain recession, one which they, by their own reckless actions, will have caused.

If stock declines continue through February, expect the Fed to pause on their quest to raise rates and unload debt at the same time. The outward absurdity of their position is dangerous to the welfare of not only business entities, but individuals and governments as well.

What may have been the most telling circumstance from Friday's demolition of all asset classes, gold and silver also took precipitous drops, action which harkens back to the tumultuous days of the fall of 2008, when precious metals were slammed along with stocks. Notably, it was the metals which recovered first, but under the current conditions of mad money mindlessness, the shiny stuff may be suppressed even further, simply because central banks don't appreciate competition for their various fake currencies by real money.

The era of easy money is ending.

Real assets will endure.

At the Close, Friday, February 2, 2018:
Dow: 25,520.96, -665.75 (-2.54%)
NASDAQ: 7,240.95, -144.92 (-1.96%)
S&P 500: 2,762.13, -59.85 (-2.12%)
NYSE Composite: 13,085.35, -296.62 (-2.22%)

For the Week:
Dow: -1095.75 (-4.12)
NASDAQ: -264.83 (-3.53%)
S&P 500: -110.74 (-3.85%)
NYSE Composite: -551.67 (-4.05%)

Tail Wags Dog: Fed 'Beige Book' Provides Rationale for Dollar Buying

Wall Street professionals wiped off all the poop from yesterday's 300+ price collapse on the DJIA and set about to bidding up risky assets to even riskier levels, sending the Dow and other averages soaring to new all-time closing highs.

Making matters even more preposterous, sinister, or outlandish was the reading of the Fed's Beige Book at 2:00 pm ET, which sent the US Dollar index off three-year lows to near the highs of the day at 4:00 pm ET, the closing bell on Wall Street.

If there's a soul left on the planet that hasn't bowed to the power of the Federal Reserve and its host of central bank and commercial cronies, then that person is simply out-of-touch.

Silver and gold have wallowed near multi-year bottoms for four long years while stocks have gone absolutely ballistic. Paper promises are worth much, much more than solid gold or silver in today's phony funny money world.

It's almost enough to make one give up writing on the subject (pondered here nearly every damn day).

Today's gains on the Dow Industrials were the largest since the election of November 8, 2016.

At the Close, Wednesday, January 17, 2018:
Dow: 26,115.65, +322.79 (+1.25%)
NASDAQ: 7,298.28, +74.59 (+1.03%)
S&P 500: 2,802.56, +26.14 (+0.94%)
NYSE Composite: 13,352.39, +105.53 (+0.80%)

Central Banks Have Complete Control Over Global Economies, Governments

US stock indices had their best showing of the new year on Thursday, with all the averages reaching new all-time highs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is higher by 875 points in just the first eight sessions of 2018. That is extraordinary. It is so extraordinary that, at that pace - of a little more than 100 points per day - the Dow average would nearly double in value this year.

The gain would be over 20,000 points, putting the Dow Jones average somewhere in the range of 45,000 by year's end. In percentage terms, it would be up 80%. Anybody who has over 100,000 invested in stocks and is making less than $80,000 this year might as well take the year off. Why work when your money is doing so much of the heavy lifting?

Of course, that's a speculation. The Dow won't gain 80% this year, or will it?

Is the economy that good? Are US companies making that much money, that they are severely undervalued today?

Or, are central banks intervening in stock markets with money created out of thin air?

For answers, or, at least, hints, to the answers, see yesterday's post, or, any of the posts from the past eight or nine years which have tags or labels "central banks", "central bankers", or, "Federal Reserve."

At the Close, Thursday, January 11, 2018:
Dow: 25,574.73, +205.60 (+0.81%)
NASDAQ: 7,211.78, +58.21 (+0.81%)
S&P 500: 2,767.56, +19.33 (+0.70%)
NYSE Composite: 13,210.77, +104.17 (+0.79%)

If 2017 Was Good, 2018 Should Be Better

Anybody who owns stocks or has a portfolio in a retirement fund, 401k or other equity-style investments is well aware of just how good 2017 was.

All indications are that 2018 will be just as good, and probably better.

There's a number of reasons for this prognosis.

First, it's more than apparent that global stock markets are now completely under the purview of the global elite central banks, and that this central banks are actively buying stocks, boosting the underlying asset prices in the process.

Second, after that, nothing really matters, since central banks can create money out of the ether, at will, any time, for any purpose. Economics has been flipped upon its head. Price discovery has been delegated to a function of the central banks, i.e, they set the prices. No fundamental analysis is needed, nor will it be valid.

Since the goal of central banks is to keep their money ponzi schemes intact via their various currencies - pound, dollar, euro, yen, yuan - and the stock markets are primary vehicles, there exists almost zero chance of stocks losing value over even the short term. A longer-term decline would be unthinkable as it would destroy the fiat money that central banks employ in their quest to continue their global finance monopoly.

Knowing all of that, there's no reason anybody should invest in anything other than stocks, or, for added assurance, an index fund which tracks the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ, or all three, weighted, or otherwise.

Stocks will never go down again, at least not for any extended period of time.

Just Buy The Dips.

At the Close, Monday, January 8, 2018:
Dow: 25,283.00, -12.87 (-0.05%)
NASDAQ: 7,157.39, +20.83 (+0.29%)
S&P 500: 2,747.71, +4.56 (+0.17%)
NYSE Composite: 13,114.35, +11.12 (+0.08%)

Stocks Still on Pause as Year Winds Down

The Dow Industrials, NASDAQ, and the S&P 500 each closed lower for the fourth time in the past five sessions.

In normal times, this kind of market action would be characterized as "distribution," a code-word for institutional selling, and maybe that's exactly what it is. As the Fed and other central banks have flooded markets with liquidity, the past nine years have been anything but normal, however, so these past few days could be better explained as "turning off the computers" as stocks have reached an exhaustion level.

It's also the week between Christmas and New Year, a time for friends, family, and a generally-accepted laid-back attitude toward work. Anybody who has worked for a living knows the value of down time, and that's probably what this little pause is all about. There's no need to delve further into the ether, trying to discern a pattern or conjure up an explanation. That would be just the kind of imaginative speculation that leads to bad investment decisions.

While the market has yet to make any meaningful moves to the downside, this little spat of sluggishness is probably nothing more than the result of non-chalance than anything else.

When stocks take a deep dive of more than two percent over a number of sessions, or technical levels are violated, only then may more analysis be deemed advisable. For now, it's better to have a hot toddy or two, relax with friends and family and let the markets sort themselves out over the final three days of trading, reeling from what was previously a torrid pace.

At the Close, Tuesday, December 26, 2017:
Dow: 24,746.21, -7.85 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 6,936.25, -23.71 (-0.34%)
S&P 500: 2,680.50, -2.84 (-0.11%)
NYSE Composite: 12,808.90, +11.46 (+0.09%)

More of the Same: Stocks Start Week With Gains; Even Doug Noland Doesn't Know How It Ends

Nothing new about this, except that it's beginning to become obvious to everybody that the relentless ramping of stocks by central banks and their cohorts in the commercial banking sector (think Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citibank, Morgan Stanley) cannot continue uninterrupted.

On the other hand, it's been going on for a lot longer than anyone could have possibly expected...

The big questions are:

1. When does it end?
2. How does it end?

At this point, nobody in the financial world even has a clue, including people as bright and provocative as Doug Noland, who has been authoring the Credit Bubble Bulletin since the late 90s.

His recent interview podcast by Chris Martenson of Peak Prosperity is incredibly prescient and offers insights into the global credit bubble that cannot be found anywhere else.

It is highly recommended listening.

At the Close, Monday, December 11, 2017:
Dow: 24,386.03, +56.87 (+0.23%)
NASDAQ: 6,875.08, +35.00 (+0.51%)
S&P 500: 2,659.99, +8.49 (+0.32%)
NYSE Composite: 12,668.21, +25.15 (+0.20%)

Stocks Continue to Stall While Crypto Goes Wild; Silver Down for 2017

Stocks continued to plan through the early days of December, giving up early gains to close mixed to down on the day.

Overnight, Bitcoin careened through $13,000, $14,000, and $15,000 per coin to set all-time highs in an unprecedented move.

While the cryptocurrencies may have Wall Street and central banks on the ropes, it hasn't presented the chief manipulators of precious metals from pounding down gold and silver, the latter of which dropped below $16 per ounce, leaving it down for the year.

Bonds were bid, dropping yields, though the curve remained stubbornly flat. With the FOMC meeting less than a week ahead, declining bond yields may give the Fed reason to pause on their planned federal funds rate increase.

Meanwhile, Washington, DC is working out an emergency continuing resolution, designed to keep the government running for at least a few more weeks.

Amid all the political and monetary madness, stocks remain resilient, though the recent lag may be a sign that gains for the year may be already locked in to many portfolios.

Other than Bitcoin, which has entered either a bubble or mania stage, and precious metals, which are a screaming buy, there doesn't seem to be much to tantalize the usual stock purchasers. Valuations have been stretched, and, with Novemebr non-farm payroll data due out Friday morning, Thursday is setting up to be another day of divestiture and consolidation.

At the Close, Wednesday, December 6, 2017:
Dow: 24,140.91, -39.73 (-0.16%)
NASDAQ: 6,776.38, +14.16 (+0.21%)
S&P 500: 2,629.27, -0.30 (-0.01%)
NYSE Composite: 12,532.43, -34.73 (-0.28%)

Why Nobody Can Short This Market

Central banks control the money supply. They can print infinite amounts of dollars, euros, yen or other currencies.

Actually, they don't even have to print the money, they just push buttons on their magic computers and viola! new money.

The money gets circulated to their stockholders, large international banks. The banks invest in the stock market, sending stocks - any stock they choose, or all of them - higher.

That's why, as evidenced by today's out-of-nowhere rally, nobody can short this market.

It's easy money, mostly for the richest of the rich, and, if one is savvy enough and holds long enough without wavering, for everybody.

At the Close, Tuesday, November 21, 2017:
Dow: 23,590.83, +160.50 (+0.69%)
NASDAQ: 6,862.48, +71.76 (+1.06%)
S&P 500: 2,599.03, +16.89 (+0.65%)
NYSE Composite: 12,385.89, +65.11 (+0.53%)

Stocks Ignore Political Risks, China Regulations; Glint App Takes Gold Digital

Early morning in Europe and the Western Hemisphere were looking downright dreary to open the week's financial escapades, until buyers (central banks) emerged from the shadows (crypts), quickly erasing concerns over China's new rules to crimp the burgeoning shadow banking uprising and the failure of German Chancellor Angela Merkel to form a coalition government.

While futures were down sharply - especially on the European news - they were quickly corrected. China's markets quickly went from negative, staging a day-long rally, while European bourses were mostly positive and US stocks rallied sharply from the opening bell.

However, the euphoria flagged in the US as the session wore on, with stocks finishing off their highs of the day. Still, the results were much more cheerful than what might have happened if markets and investors were left alone, barring the blatant interventionism that seems to pervade trading in all markets.

The new paradigm is such that stocks cannot fail, but only go higher, valuations be damned, while gold and silver are routinely taken out to the woodshed for a weekly beating, such as occurred this morning, prior to the opening bell on Wall Street and throughout the day.

The setup isn't all so new at all. Since 2012, gold and silver have been mercilessly suppressed, to the point at which some staunch supporters are rethinking their love for shiny metals. This is exactly what central bankers wish, that wealth protectors give up and resign themselves to the fiat money regimen, but it is also precisely the time - if one is guided by sound investment stratagems - to begin loading up on what most would be shunning.

In that regard, London-based Glint launched a mobile app today that sets gold sailing into the digital age, offering Glintpay as a means by which to hold gold in a Swiss-based vault with the ability to spend one's holdings via a complementary MasterCard.

The app, which is available for download through the Apple App Store, works on iPhones and iPads using Apple's iOS operating system and is promising to provide quick and easy debit access to gold and a host of other currencies, with millions of locations worldwide accepting MasterCard.

How well the start-up will fare is an open question, but it does raise an interesting alternative to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which have witnessed monumental growth over the past six months and continue to raise eyebrows in the conventional banking universe.

The world is at a crossroads in terms of currencies. Trust in the debt-slavery central bank system continues to wane in various places as the rise of cryptos offers a glimpse of a possible future and precious metal devotees cling to long-held beliefs in money that is backed by physical assets.

Currency events are historically long-winded affairs, taking years or decades in which to sort themselves out. The ongoing forays between fiat, crypto, and physical seems to have gained some momentum today.

Investors with an eye on the global financial landscape would be wise to hold some of each, allocating more toward the digital and physical as events warrant as old systems are dying and may have been dealt an unrecoverable blow during the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-09.

At the Close, Monday, November 20, 2017:
Dow: 23,430.33, +72.09 (+0.31%)
NASDAQ: 6,790.71, +7.92 (+0.12%)
S&P 500: 2,582.14, +3.29 (+0.13%)
NYSE Composite: 12,320.77, +17.88 (+0.15%)

Stocks Hit Roadblock as House Tax Plan Falters in Senate

With Rand Paul absent due to injury, senators John McCain and Ted Cruz already announced no votes, the much-ballyhooed house-Trump tax plan looks to be dead on arrival and investors are not pleased.

Tuesday's action in the markets were punctuated by a pronounced leveling of the yield curve, with 2-10 and 5-30 spreads plumbing new lows.

Just in case the bickering in Washington continues towards implosion - a highly likely event horizon - with Democrats aligning with no-vote Republicans, forward looking people will next look to the upcoming December deadline for the debt ceiling and an anticipated increase to the federal funds rate by the Fed's FOMC.

That's putting pressure on stocks as the market opens Wednesday, though the declines are far from substantial. Also of note is crude oil's decline off recent three-year highs, while precious metals continue to the upside, a split in the commodity complex.

President Trump continues his extensive Pacific tour, in China for the time being, as news flow should slow to a crawl as the week closes in on Friday. With stocks fluctuating, it may be time to seek out undervalued equities, if any are to be found. Stocks remain wildly overpriced with backing by central banks preventing any potential cascading declines.

At the Close, Tuesday, November 7, 2017:
Dow: 23,557.23, +8.81 (+0.04%)
NASDAQ: 6,767.78, -18.65 (-0.27%)
S&P 500: 2,590.64, -0.49 (-0.02%)
NYSE Composite: 12,371.25, -29.68 (-0.24%)

Don't Count on a Market Correction in this Environment

For a change, stocks took a little dip to open the week, but it was certainly nothing by which anybody was rattled or otherwise deterred from buying ever more expensive stocks.

Since the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2009, the favorite acronym of traders has been BTD, otherwise known as Buy The Dip, which is exactly what is to be expected when markets open on Tuesday.

Almost without fail - actually, fully without fail - US equity indices, since March of 2009, have never fallen much more than a few percentage points before ramping back to new all-time highs. While there have been occasions in which the dip in stocks has persisted over a period of weeks or months, there has been no failure to recover in recent years.

Anybody invested on more than a casual basis is aware that central bank largesse and stock buybacks have been the primary drivers of stock market prosperity, and even with the Federal Reserve beginning to engage in the process of unwinding its balance sheet - selling off much of its horde of $4.5 million in bonds and other sketchy assets - there seems to be little to scare investors away from he equity bandwagon.

It's largely a controlled environment, nothing like the heydays of the 50s and 60s, when America was a growing concern and didn't need monetary boosts to fuel investment markets. Today's markets and investors are completely synthetic, consisting mainly of larger brokerages and funds of all types, from sovereign wealth types to hedges to mutuals to pensions. The general public and governments are so heavily invested in stocks that a collapse in markets would likely trigger catastrophic consequences to all parties. Private individuals would be harmed by pension promises unable to be met, while the large funds would face liquidation, bankruptcy or dissolution. Governments, likewise would be under attack for making pledges to the populace that could not be manifested over time, such as social security and other entitlements.

It is for those reasons, and the overall interconnectedness and fragility of markets that corrections do not occur. People in power would be without and instead of order, there would be chaos, and that is something that central bankers and their cohorts in the government realm simply cannot stomach.

At the Close, Monday, October 23, 2017:
Dow: 23,273.96, -54.67 (-0.23%)
NASDAQ: 6,586.83, -42.23 (-0.64%)
S&P 500: 2,564.98, -10.23 (-0.40%)
NYSE Composite: 12,384.42, -46.10 (-0.37%)

Stocks Post Gains As August Winds Down; Nomi Print On Central Bank Collusion

Investors put their money down as the major indices posted small gains heading into the end of the month. The NASDAQ was, in particular, on fire, posting the largest increase on the day, a more then one percent rise.

Non-farm payroll data for August will be released Friday morning in advance of the three-day Labor Day weekend, so that should color the final two days of the week, the last day of August and the first day of September.

As mentioned in prior posts, there's nothing stopping stocks from posting gains until congress comes back in September to begin debates on the debt ceiling, tax reform (that's funny, they always talk about tax reform and the tax code just keeps getting larger), and the federal budget (another fat boy).

To get an idea of just how far afield the world's central bankers have gone in trying to maintain a broken global financial system, Nomi Prins puts perfect spin on the topic, in her latest blog post, A Decade of G7 Central Bank Collusion... and Counting.

At the Close, 8/30/17:
Dow: 21,892.43, +27.06 (+0.12%)
NASDAQ: 6,368.31, +66.42 (+1.05%)
S&P 500: 2,457.59, +11.29 (+0.46%)
NYSE Composite: 11,805.07, +13.19 (+0.11%)

Stocks, Gold, Silver, Bonds Ominously Reverse Course

As noted in the previous post, stocks were poised - via lower futures pricing - for a major downdraft on Tuesday, but, oddly enough, or, thanks to the good folks at the PPT, that never actually occurred to any great extent.

Instead, stocks did indeed start the session lower, but quickly reversed course and ended mostly on the upside. Additionally, the dollar dropped then popped on the widely-watched dollar index, crushing the gains in gold, silver and bonds, with the 10-year note ending at 2.14% yield.

It's amusing to see such theatrics carried out by those mostly "in charge" of global finance, i.e., the central bankers and government operatives in the Treasury Department, SEC and State. It's going to get more amusing, if that's what one wants to call outright market manipulation via direct, clandestine equity purchases, once congress comes back from vacation following the long Labor Day holiday.

One obvious feature of late has been the decline of the dollar over the past six months. It's been steady and in a bear market since July, but yesterday's rapid descent was apparently too much, too soon.

At the Close, Tuesday, August 28, 2017:
Dow: 21,865.37, +56.97 (+0.26%)
NASDAQ: 6,301.89, +18.87 (+0.30%)
S&P 500: 2,446.30, +2.06 (+0.08%)
NYSE Composite: 11,791.88, -8.34 (-0.07%)