One would assume that a good jobs number on Friday would be good for stocks, but, as the economy goes, the Fed goes against it, with tightening via a raise in the federal funds rate almost a surety if the NFP number for February comes in strong, as suggested by Wednesday's ADP figure of 298,000 new jobs added in the month.
That's the backwardness of the stock market, fueled almost entirely by cheap credit and share repurchases (buybacks) over the past eight years. In fact, today marks the 8th anniversary of the market bottom in 2009, and its been nothing but accommodation by the Fed and happy talk from the press ever since.
Thus, stocks fell for the third straight session and fourth in five days, with the exception of the NASDAQ, where speculators have still not succumbed to the axe of profit-taking.
In a sign that the narrative may be unraveling, WTI crude oil fell sharply on Wednesday, closing under $50 a barrel for the first time since December after another survey showed massive gluts in crude and distillates. This should transfer into good news for drivers as the spring and summer driving months come into focus with lower prices at the pump.
Oil has experienced a glut of magnificent proportions over the past two years with demand down and supply at or near record levels. The price of +$50 has been fueled largely by speculation, as is everything else in the financial sector. With interest rates set to increase, perhaps the malinvestments and speculative frenzy can abate and true price discovery ensue.
At The Close, 3.8.17:
Dow: 20,855.73, -69.03 (-0.33%)
NASDAQ: 5,837.55, +3.62 (0.06%)
S&P 500: 2,362.98, -5.41 (-0.23%)
NYSE Composite: 11,448.21, -58.11 (-0.51%)
Showing posts with label employment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label employment. Show all posts
Thursday, March 9, 2017
Friday, March 3, 2017
Stock Markets Backtrack In Advance of February NFP Jobs Report
Editor's Note: Sincere apologies to readers for the incorrect posting this morning. February Non-farm payroll data will not be released until March 10, instead of the usual first Friday of the month. Money Daily reported below that the NFP data would be out TODAY, March 3, but that is not the case. We seriously regret the error.
Following Wednesday's massive upturn in markets on the heels of President Trump's speech, Thursday was a bit of a reality check for gamblers in the Wall Street Casino.
Smart one - and there were plenty of them - took their quick profits and are likely sitting in cash ahead of Friday's non-farm payroll report from the tarnished Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Since February is a short month, expectations for another bump in payrolls may very well be disappointed, to a degree not previously factored.
ADP reported fewer jobs created in the private sector for February than expected. The 139,000 American workers hired to private-sector payrolls in February was below economists' consensus forecast of 155,000. Additionally, ADP revised their January figure to 127,000 from 175,000. That's a mighty big decline which was overshadowed by Wednesday's shock and awe euphoria.
While the NFP does not exactly mirror ADP, it usually tracks pretty well, though the BLS is notorious for using metrics such as the business birth/death model to goose numbers toward the desired result.
Non-farm payroll data will be released Friday morning at 8:30 am ET. There may well be fireworks if the number falls short of the lowered-bar expectations of 157,000 net new jobs.
At The Close, 3.2.17:
Dow: 21,002.97, -112.58 (-0.53%)
NASDAQ: 5,861.22, -42.81 (-0.73%)
S&P 500: 2,381.92, -14.04 (-0.59%)
NYSE Composite: 11,575.91, -85.31 (-0.73%)
Following Wednesday's massive upturn in markets on the heels of President Trump's speech, Thursday was a bit of a reality check for gamblers in the Wall Street Casino.
Smart one - and there were plenty of them - took their quick profits and are likely sitting in cash ahead of Friday's non-farm payroll report from the tarnished Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Since February is a short month, expectations for another bump in payrolls may very well be disappointed, to a degree not previously factored.
ADP reported fewer jobs created in the private sector for February than expected. The 139,000 American workers hired to private-sector payrolls in February was below economists' consensus forecast of 155,000. Additionally, ADP revised their January figure to 127,000 from 175,000. That's a mighty big decline which was overshadowed by Wednesday's shock and awe euphoria.
While the NFP does not exactly mirror ADP, it usually tracks pretty well, though the BLS is notorious for using metrics such as the business birth/death model to goose numbers toward the desired result.
Non-farm payroll data will be released Friday morning at 8:30 am ET. There may well be fireworks if the number falls short of the lowered-bar expectations of 157,000 net new jobs.
At The Close, 3.2.17:
Dow: 21,002.97, -112.58 (-0.53%)
NASDAQ: 5,861.22, -42.81 (-0.73%)
S&P 500: 2,381.92, -14.04 (-0.59%)
NYSE Composite: 11,575.91, -85.31 (-0.73%)
Friday, October 28, 2016
Special: Fighting Fraud Starts With Skepticism Of Statistics Like GDP
Stocks sold off slightly on Thursday, but, over the past few days and weeks, the real money has been moving in bonds, which - in the case of the US and Germany, at least - are sporting yields at or near multi-year highs.
The cause is mostly FUD, the arcane acronym invented on the internet standing for Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt. When bond traders get riffed, the world should take note, but, since we are preconditioned to focus our collective attention on stocks, most people don't realize where money is moving and why until it's too late. Interest rates rise, money tightens and flows into bonds because they are considered more stable and safer than stocks. Businesses and consumers face higher lending costs, the economy stalls, stocks decline. The process takes many months, often years, before the eventual recession occurs. Fortunes are made and lost, mostly made by savvy bond specialists and lost by individuals and stock investors.
It's a royal screw job on the middle and upper-middle class (or what's left of it) by monetary authorities and governments that have been skimming off the top through inflation, deflation, fractional reserve banking, taxes, fees, and penalties. If you feel like you've been screwed by either banks or the government (village, city, county, state, or federal), it's because you have been... often overtly, but more often, quietly, covertly, under the cover of "we're doing what's best for you," or increased spending, deficit spending, capital "improvements" or budget windfalls to schools, tunnels, roads, bridges, fire departments, special tax districts, et cetera ad nauseum.
It's why people are voting for Trump. No kidding. American voting-age citizens fall today grossly into two broad categories: 1) Working people or retired on fixed income, getting nowhere fast, watching their incomes stagnate since 1999, paying more for everything from health care to property taxes to cell phone or internet service to utilities; 2) Welfare, SSI disability or other entitlement recipients, government employees who care not a whit that everything is going to hell in a handbasket because they either a) get a rent subsidy, food stamps, and other goodies no matter what, for doing nothing, or, b) are a government employee getting an automatic annual raise regardless of their job performance or the economic condition of the country.
In between or outside these two mega-groups are the upper-upper crust of one-percenters who make their money off interest on investments and the swath of social security and pension retirees who have maxed out on the system. That large last group vectors in and out of the working class spectrum to a large degree and some are being largely disenfranchised in the same ways that the middle class has been, especially since 2001, when interest rates began tanking and savings no longer provided a great enough return to outpace inflation.
Older folks will remember better days, when banks paid 5% interest on savings. Forget that. It's gone. Just like the social security fund, which faces default and bankruptcy within 15 years, our best days are behind us. Baby boomers will be the last generation to get ahold of the golden ring of social security. Generations X and Y will get less and millennials will likely get little to nothing. The system broke in the 80s, under Ronald Reagan (sorry, conservatives, but that's the truth), and it's just gotten worse as banking regulations were eased (Clinton and congress conspired to eviscerate Glass-Steagall leading to the global collapse) and every president since Carter has stolen from the social security fund to pay general obligations.
What's multiple times worse is that not only has the federal government stolen from the future, but they've managed to run up enormous deficits nearly every year and add to the debt at an exponential rate.
Here at Money Daily we don't expect everyone to understand economics, but we do strive to encourage people to exercise a little common sense and have basic math skills. Since what the government does with money (spend more than they take in), it doesn't take a Ph.D. in anything to discern that if you did the same, your financial condition would deteriorate, slowly at first, then all at once, sending you and yours to the poor house.
So, the government does better? How do they perform this magic? Lies and deception, mostly, through the issuance of bonds, sold to the Fed, parceled out to primary dealers and sold again to investors of all stripes. The Fed then prints more money, which is spent throughout the economy. Banks used to multiply the money supply via fractional reserve lending but they don't do much of that anymore. They use accounting tricks, balance sheets nobody can comprehend and investments form the ordinary to the arcane (CDOs, for instance) rather than functioning under some form of fiscal discipline. It's all too easy for the government and the banking system to defraud everyone. They've been doing it for centuries. It gets reset from time to time, but the same powers that were become the powers that be. It's history, if you know where to find it.
So, to the point: Just moments ago, the Deptartment of Commerce reported its first estimate of third quarter GDP, coming in at a robust 2.9%, more than double the second quarter's stumbling 1.4%, all smoke and mirrors designed to elect Hillary Clinton as president, keep the status quo firmly entrenched, and continue your existence as a docile, dumb serf. When the numbers are revised in a month, and again another month later, and again in two years, the number will be much lower, but, by that time the elections will be long over, the winners will be still partying, and you will be getting screwed, again, and again, and again.
Just wait until October's job numbers come out next Friday, the final, big lie prior to the elections. It should be awesome, but it will still be a lie.
If you aren't gardening, putting up solar panels, repairing an old car rather than buying a new one, scrimping and saving, buying gold and silver now, worry not, you soon will be.
Thursday's Tumble
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,169.68, -29.65 (-0.16%)
NASDAQ Composite
5,215.97, -34.29 (-0.65%)
S&P 500
2,133.04, -6.39 (-0.30%)
NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)
10,503.06, -25.13 (-0.24%)
The cause is mostly FUD, the arcane acronym invented on the internet standing for Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt. When bond traders get riffed, the world should take note, but, since we are preconditioned to focus our collective attention on stocks, most people don't realize where money is moving and why until it's too late. Interest rates rise, money tightens and flows into bonds because they are considered more stable and safer than stocks. Businesses and consumers face higher lending costs, the economy stalls, stocks decline. The process takes many months, often years, before the eventual recession occurs. Fortunes are made and lost, mostly made by savvy bond specialists and lost by individuals and stock investors.
It's a royal screw job on the middle and upper-middle class (or what's left of it) by monetary authorities and governments that have been skimming off the top through inflation, deflation, fractional reserve banking, taxes, fees, and penalties. If you feel like you've been screwed by either banks or the government (village, city, county, state, or federal), it's because you have been... often overtly, but more often, quietly, covertly, under the cover of "we're doing what's best for you," or increased spending, deficit spending, capital "improvements" or budget windfalls to schools, tunnels, roads, bridges, fire departments, special tax districts, et cetera ad nauseum.
It's why people are voting for Trump. No kidding. American voting-age citizens fall today grossly into two broad categories: 1) Working people or retired on fixed income, getting nowhere fast, watching their incomes stagnate since 1999, paying more for everything from health care to property taxes to cell phone or internet service to utilities; 2) Welfare, SSI disability or other entitlement recipients, government employees who care not a whit that everything is going to hell in a handbasket because they either a) get a rent subsidy, food stamps, and other goodies no matter what, for doing nothing, or, b) are a government employee getting an automatic annual raise regardless of their job performance or the economic condition of the country.
In between or outside these two mega-groups are the upper-upper crust of one-percenters who make their money off interest on investments and the swath of social security and pension retirees who have maxed out on the system. That large last group vectors in and out of the working class spectrum to a large degree and some are being largely disenfranchised in the same ways that the middle class has been, especially since 2001, when interest rates began tanking and savings no longer provided a great enough return to outpace inflation.
Older folks will remember better days, when banks paid 5% interest on savings. Forget that. It's gone. Just like the social security fund, which faces default and bankruptcy within 15 years, our best days are behind us. Baby boomers will be the last generation to get ahold of the golden ring of social security. Generations X and Y will get less and millennials will likely get little to nothing. The system broke in the 80s, under Ronald Reagan (sorry, conservatives, but that's the truth), and it's just gotten worse as banking regulations were eased (Clinton and congress conspired to eviscerate Glass-Steagall leading to the global collapse) and every president since Carter has stolen from the social security fund to pay general obligations.
What's multiple times worse is that not only has the federal government stolen from the future, but they've managed to run up enormous deficits nearly every year and add to the debt at an exponential rate.
Here at Money Daily we don't expect everyone to understand economics, but we do strive to encourage people to exercise a little common sense and have basic math skills. Since what the government does with money (spend more than they take in), it doesn't take a Ph.D. in anything to discern that if you did the same, your financial condition would deteriorate, slowly at first, then all at once, sending you and yours to the poor house.
So, the government does better? How do they perform this magic? Lies and deception, mostly, through the issuance of bonds, sold to the Fed, parceled out to primary dealers and sold again to investors of all stripes. The Fed then prints more money, which is spent throughout the economy. Banks used to multiply the money supply via fractional reserve lending but they don't do much of that anymore. They use accounting tricks, balance sheets nobody can comprehend and investments form the ordinary to the arcane (CDOs, for instance) rather than functioning under some form of fiscal discipline. It's all too easy for the government and the banking system to defraud everyone. They've been doing it for centuries. It gets reset from time to time, but the same powers that were become the powers that be. It's history, if you know where to find it.
So, to the point: Just moments ago, the Deptartment of Commerce reported its first estimate of third quarter GDP, coming in at a robust 2.9%, more than double the second quarter's stumbling 1.4%, all smoke and mirrors designed to elect Hillary Clinton as president, keep the status quo firmly entrenched, and continue your existence as a docile, dumb serf. When the numbers are revised in a month, and again another month later, and again in two years, the number will be much lower, but, by that time the elections will be long over, the winners will be still partying, and you will be getting screwed, again, and again, and again.
Just wait until October's job numbers come out next Friday, the final, big lie prior to the elections. It should be awesome, but it will still be a lie.
If you aren't gardening, putting up solar panels, repairing an old car rather than buying a new one, scrimping and saving, buying gold and silver now, worry not, you soon will be.
Thursday's Tumble
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,169.68, -29.65 (-0.16%)
NASDAQ Composite
5,215.97, -34.29 (-0.65%)
S&P 500
2,133.04, -6.39 (-0.30%)
NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)
10,503.06, -25.13 (-0.24%)
Saturday, September 3, 2016
August Jobs Report Disappoints, Traders Euphoric
The headline says what's so weird about markets in the central banking age: Bad news is good news.
In this instance, the August non-farm payroll report delivered only 151,000 net new jobs when expectations were for 180,000.
While it wasn't a huge miss, and, the BLS NFP report is one of the most conflated, untrustworthy, fragile and ultimately revisionist data points delivered to markets every month, it still holds water with the investing class.
The point taken here is that since there seems to be not enough jobs created to keep the economy humming along at anything more than a 1-1.5% growth rate, the Federal Reserve will not have any good reason to raise rates at their next meeting, in about two-and-a-half weeks.
Halelujah! The party continues.
Friday's Free-for-all:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,491.96, +72.66 (0.39%)
NASDAQ
5,249.90, +22.69 (0.43%)
S&P 500
2,179.98, +9.12 (0.42%)
NYSE Composite
10,856.92, +84.99 (0.79%)
For the Week:
Dow: +96.56 (+0.52%)
NASDAQ: +30.98 (+0.59%)
S&P 500: +10.94 (+0.50%)
NYSE Comp.: +107.59 (+1.00%)
In this instance, the August non-farm payroll report delivered only 151,000 net new jobs when expectations were for 180,000.
While it wasn't a huge miss, and, the BLS NFP report is one of the most conflated, untrustworthy, fragile and ultimately revisionist data points delivered to markets every month, it still holds water with the investing class.
The point taken here is that since there seems to be not enough jobs created to keep the economy humming along at anything more than a 1-1.5% growth rate, the Federal Reserve will not have any good reason to raise rates at their next meeting, in about two-and-a-half weeks.
Halelujah! The party continues.
Friday's Free-for-all:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,491.96, +72.66 (0.39%)
NASDAQ
5,249.90, +22.69 (0.43%)
S&P 500
2,179.98, +9.12 (0.42%)
NYSE Composite
10,856.92, +84.99 (0.79%)
For the Week:
Dow: +96.56 (+0.52%)
NASDAQ: +30.98 (+0.59%)
S&P 500: +10.94 (+0.50%)
NYSE Comp.: +107.59 (+1.00%)
Friday, August 5, 2016
Stocks Gallop Ahead On July Jobs Boost
While the consensus estimate was for July Non-Farm Payrolls to show a gain of 160,000, the BLS (aka Bureau of Lies and Salaciousness) blew away the number, showing the US economy grew by 255,000 jobs in the usually dolorous month of July. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.9%.
That number sent the dollar screeching higher and stocks rocketing back toward or beyond (S&P 500) all-time highs.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up more than one percent, along with the NASDAQ, no doubt buoyed by the sensational jobs report and the trouncing Hillary Clinton was giving to Donald Trump in the majority of the latest polls. The elite status quo has their agenda in hand; Wall Street obviously a willing partner.
All major averages finished with modest gains for the week (with the exception of the NYSE Composite), despite the idea that a better economy - one that, say, produces 250,000+ jobs per month - might give the Federal Reserve cause to raise rates. For now, however, good news is good news.
On The Day:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,543.53, +191.48 (1.04%)
NASDAQ
5,221.12, +54.87 (1.06%)
S&P 500
2,182.87, +18.62 (0.86%)
NYSE Composite
10,781.78, +75.74 (+0.71%)
For the Week:
Dow: +111.29, (+0.60%)
S&P 500: +9.27 (+0.43%)
NASDAQ: +58.99 (+1.14%)
NYA: -2.65 (-0.02)
That number sent the dollar screeching higher and stocks rocketing back toward or beyond (S&P 500) all-time highs.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up more than one percent, along with the NASDAQ, no doubt buoyed by the sensational jobs report and the trouncing Hillary Clinton was giving to Donald Trump in the majority of the latest polls. The elite status quo has their agenda in hand; Wall Street obviously a willing partner.
All major averages finished with modest gains for the week (with the exception of the NYSE Composite), despite the idea that a better economy - one that, say, produces 250,000+ jobs per month - might give the Federal Reserve cause to raise rates. For now, however, good news is good news.
On The Day:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,543.53, +191.48 (1.04%)
NASDAQ
5,221.12, +54.87 (1.06%)
S&P 500
2,182.87, +18.62 (0.86%)
NYSE Composite
10,781.78, +75.74 (+0.71%)
For the Week:
Dow: +111.29, (+0.60%)
S&P 500: +9.27 (+0.43%)
NASDAQ: +58.99 (+1.14%)
NYA: -2.65 (-0.02)
Wednesday, June 15, 2016
Fed Does Not Hike Rates, As Expected; Markets Dull
Not only has the Fed run out of inflation-and-recession-fighting tools and rhetoric, but the US central bank seems to be running out of mental acuity and moral purpose.
What they do possess is an abundance of political correctness and political policy, used to keep watchers of global economies on their toes and the general populace in a trance.
The FOMC did today what they have done for most of the past seven years: they kept the federal funds rate unchanged. Since December, 2008 the federal funds rate has remained at 0.00-0.25%, until a one-time hike in December of 2015, raised the rate to 0.25-0.50, where it remains.
Citing a troubling employment picture after May's non-farm payroll figures came in at just 38,000 jobs, the Fed decided to delay their threatened rate hike for the foreseeable future, or, at least until the next meeting, in July, at which time they will likely find another reason to keep rates at ridiculously low levels to enrich those at the top of the money tree while at the same time impoverishing and punishing savers.
The policies of the Federal Reserve and their fellow central bankers in other countries are pointless and harmful. Since the financial collapse of 2008-09, their mangled ideologies have done little to stimulate any economy of any country. What's worse, these policies have afforded spendthrift governments the world over to borrow trillions at absurdly low rates, enslaving their populations to onerous taxation, promises of pension which will eventually collapse, and a general overburden of rules, regulations, fees, and legislation.
At the same time, civil liberties are dying at a pace close to that of a once-promising middle class, thanks to the moral turpitude of the central banker cabal and the lap-dog behavior of national governments.
While Wall Street has variously loved and desired low interest rates for a long time, this era has seemingly run its course, as today's market reaction shows. No longer is Wall Street enamored of rates close to zero; banks can't make much money on any spread, and debt over-saturation is a risk which few, if any, honest bankers wish to address.
The Fed (in)action and the slumbering reaction are signs that the age of ZIRP is at an end, and the sooner it ends, the better, but nobody is holding his or her breath waiting for central bankers to admit their mistakes and return to more normal, productive interest rates.
The Rise and Fall of Everything in One Day:
S&P 500: 2,071.50, -3.82 (0.18%)
Dow: 17,640.17, -34.65 (0.20%)
NASDAQ: 4,834.93, -8.62 (0.18%)
Chart for ^IXIC
Crude Oil 47.50 -2.06% Gold 1,295.80 +0.58% EUR/USD 1.1265 +0.04% 10-Yr Bond 1.60 -0.93% Corn 430.75 -1.32% Copper 2.09 0.00% Silver 17.56 +0.30% Natural Gas 2.87 -0.97% Russell 2000 1,149.30 +0.13% VIX 20.14 -1.76% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4196 0.00% USD/JPY 105.8460 -0.14%
What they do possess is an abundance of political correctness and political policy, used to keep watchers of global economies on their toes and the general populace in a trance.
The FOMC did today what they have done for most of the past seven years: they kept the federal funds rate unchanged. Since December, 2008 the federal funds rate has remained at 0.00-0.25%, until a one-time hike in December of 2015, raised the rate to 0.25-0.50, where it remains.
Citing a troubling employment picture after May's non-farm payroll figures came in at just 38,000 jobs, the Fed decided to delay their threatened rate hike for the foreseeable future, or, at least until the next meeting, in July, at which time they will likely find another reason to keep rates at ridiculously low levels to enrich those at the top of the money tree while at the same time impoverishing and punishing savers.
The policies of the Federal Reserve and their fellow central bankers in other countries are pointless and harmful. Since the financial collapse of 2008-09, their mangled ideologies have done little to stimulate any economy of any country. What's worse, these policies have afforded spendthrift governments the world over to borrow trillions at absurdly low rates, enslaving their populations to onerous taxation, promises of pension which will eventually collapse, and a general overburden of rules, regulations, fees, and legislation.
At the same time, civil liberties are dying at a pace close to that of a once-promising middle class, thanks to the moral turpitude of the central banker cabal and the lap-dog behavior of national governments.
While Wall Street has variously loved and desired low interest rates for a long time, this era has seemingly run its course, as today's market reaction shows. No longer is Wall Street enamored of rates close to zero; banks can't make much money on any spread, and debt over-saturation is a risk which few, if any, honest bankers wish to address.
The Fed (in)action and the slumbering reaction are signs that the age of ZIRP is at an end, and the sooner it ends, the better, but nobody is holding his or her breath waiting for central bankers to admit their mistakes and return to more normal, productive interest rates.
The Rise and Fall of Everything in One Day:
S&P 500: 2,071.50, -3.82 (0.18%)
Dow: 17,640.17, -34.65 (0.20%)
NASDAQ: 4,834.93, -8.62 (0.18%)
Chart for ^IXIC
Crude Oil 47.50 -2.06% Gold 1,295.80 +0.58% EUR/USD 1.1265 +0.04% 10-Yr Bond 1.60 -0.93% Corn 430.75 -1.32% Copper 2.09 0.00% Silver 17.56 +0.30% Natural Gas 2.87 -0.97% Russell 2000 1,149.30 +0.13% VIX 20.14 -1.76% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4196 0.00% USD/JPY 105.8460 -0.14%
Saturday, June 4, 2016
Weak Jobs Number; Worst In Six Years Rattles Market
At the end of the day, the weakest jobs number since 2010 didn't deter stock traders much, though the damage was more severe earlier in the session, another carbon copy of the previous two, with a deep drop at the open, followed by relentless pumping towards the positive.
While Friday's effort left much to be desired, it has now become all-too-obvious that there is no such thing as a fair and open market in US stocks, especially in the face of negative economic data. The federal government and agents of the Fed are adamant about painting a rosy picture of the economy, even though the metrics - especially manufacturing and non-farm payrolls this week - are using a strikingly different palette.
The 38,000 new jobs created in May, as reported by the BLS, was miles below the consensus estimate of 164,000 and gives the Fed much more thinking material as concerns a rate hike, which now appears to be off the table for June, at the very least.
What the number suggests is that despite all the howls from the president, his advisors and others on TV, the economy is in a precarious state, not one in which overheating is even a remote possibility. This would be no time to raise interest rates.
While stocks held their own during a tumultuous week, Friday saw gold and silver rally back, perhaps an indication that all is really not well in the kingdom of Obama.
On The Week:
Dow: -66.16, (-0.37%)
S&P 500: +0.07 (0.00)
NASDAQ: +9.01 (+0.18)
For the Day:
S&P 500: 2,099.13, -6.13 (0.29%)
Dow: 17,807.06, -31.50 (0.18%)
NASDAQ: 4,942.52, -28.85 (0.58%)
Crude Oil 48.90 -0.55% Gold 1,246.50 +2.80% EUR/USD 1.1366 0.00% 10-Yr Bond 1.70 -5.91% Corn 418.25 +0.72% Copper 2.12 +2.42% Silver 16.44 +2.59% Natural Gas 2.76 -0.54% Russell 2000 1,164.14 -0.55% VIX 13.47 -1.17% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4515 0.00% USD/JPY 106.5450 0.00%
While Friday's effort left much to be desired, it has now become all-too-obvious that there is no such thing as a fair and open market in US stocks, especially in the face of negative economic data. The federal government and agents of the Fed are adamant about painting a rosy picture of the economy, even though the metrics - especially manufacturing and non-farm payrolls this week - are using a strikingly different palette.
The 38,000 new jobs created in May, as reported by the BLS, was miles below the consensus estimate of 164,000 and gives the Fed much more thinking material as concerns a rate hike, which now appears to be off the table for June, at the very least.
What the number suggests is that despite all the howls from the president, his advisors and others on TV, the economy is in a precarious state, not one in which overheating is even a remote possibility. This would be no time to raise interest rates.
While stocks held their own during a tumultuous week, Friday saw gold and silver rally back, perhaps an indication that all is really not well in the kingdom of Obama.
On The Week:
Dow: -66.16, (-0.37%)
S&P 500: +0.07 (0.00)
NASDAQ: +9.01 (+0.18)
For the Day:
S&P 500: 2,099.13, -6.13 (0.29%)
Dow: 17,807.06, -31.50 (0.18%)
NASDAQ: 4,942.52, -28.85 (0.58%)
Crude Oil 48.90 -0.55% Gold 1,246.50 +2.80% EUR/USD 1.1366 0.00% 10-Yr Bond 1.70 -5.91% Corn 418.25 +0.72% Copper 2.12 +2.42% Silver 16.44 +2.59% Natural Gas 2.76 -0.54% Russell 2000 1,164.14 -0.55% VIX 13.47 -1.17% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4515 0.00% USD/JPY 106.5450 0.00%
Thursday, May 5, 2016
Stocks Pop, Drop, End Flat Before Jobs Friday
It is probably the dumbest thing going in the markets - besides, perhaps, waiting on FOMC decisions - but the monthly "Jobs Friday" fiasco is upon us once again, as breathless investors await one more dicey number form the government.
Prior to the market open on Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its April Non-Farm Payroll figure, and by that traders will have access to vital information needed to access the health of the economy and trade stocks.
except for the fact that the numbers are largely a joke, have been proven to be such, and are not of importance to anybody in particular. They offer a rather fuzzy view of the employment conditions in the United States, if one is even inclined to believe them.
So, stocks went up, came down and finished just about where they started the day, with the Dow up, the S&P and NASDAQ ever so slightly to the downside.
Idiots On Parade:
S&P 500: 2,050.63, -0.49 (0.02%)
Dow: 17,660.71, +9.45 (0.05%)
NASDAQ: 4,717.09, -8.55 (0.18%)
Crude Oil 44.51 +1.67% Gold 1,279.60 +0.41% EUR/USD 1.1403 0.00% 10-Yr Bond 1.75 -2.07% Corn 373.75 -0.80% Copper 2.14 -1.92% Silver 17.38 +0.43% Natural Gas 2.08 -2.80% Russell 2000 1,107.95 -0.47% VIX 15.91 -0.87% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4485 +0.02% USD/JPY 107.2700 -0.01%
A note on the blatant unfairness within the judicial system:
Prior to the market open on Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its April Non-Farm Payroll figure, and by that traders will have access to vital information needed to access the health of the economy and trade stocks.
except for the fact that the numbers are largely a joke, have been proven to be such, and are not of importance to anybody in particular. They offer a rather fuzzy view of the employment conditions in the United States, if one is even inclined to believe them.
So, stocks went up, came down and finished just about where they started the day, with the Dow up, the S&P and NASDAQ ever so slightly to the downside.
Idiots On Parade:
S&P 500: 2,050.63, -0.49 (0.02%)
Dow: 17,660.71, +9.45 (0.05%)
NASDAQ: 4,717.09, -8.55 (0.18%)
Crude Oil 44.51 +1.67% Gold 1,279.60 +0.41% EUR/USD 1.1403 0.00% 10-Yr Bond 1.75 -2.07% Corn 373.75 -0.80% Copper 2.14 -1.92% Silver 17.38 +0.43% Natural Gas 2.08 -2.80% Russell 2000 1,107.95 -0.47% VIX 15.91 -0.87% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4485 +0.02% USD/JPY 107.2700 -0.01%
A note on the blatant unfairness within the judicial system:
The Arbitration Association of America, which handles the majority of arbitration cases, charges $200 for an initial filing fee, not counting fees incurred by consumers who hire attorneys. The CFPB argues that fees like this have a cooling effect on potential claimants. Over the two-year period between 2010 and 2011, the CFPB found only 25 cases were filed by consumers with claims for under $1,000. For every dollar claimed, consumers won an average of 12% of the original claim in relief. Only 9% of consumers who took on financial institutions received any relief at all. In contrast, 93% of claims filed against consumers by financial institutions came out in the institution’s favor.
Wednesday, March 2, 2016
Market Steady Ahead of NFP; ADP Reports Jobs Creation Strong
The snapback rally in stocks off the January lows cannot be understated, nor can it be stopped. There are simply not enough reasons to not own stocks, being that commodities have been decimated, bonds are beyond the reach or intellect of ordinary investors, and the fact that most of the investment advisors and fund managers of the world are reaching for yield, putting stocks first, to the detriment of everything and anything else.
But, today was a day for repositioning, after ADP got the party started by reporting that private employers added 214,000 jobs in February. [Full report here]
Stocks initially had the blues, trading in the red for most of the morning, until European markets closed, then quickly erasing all losses, hugging the UNCH line for the remainder of the session.
While stocks were lacking in volatility and volume, commodities got a bit of a boost, with oil, gold and silver headed handily higher.
It was a lackluster session due to uncertainty about next week's FOMC meeting, one which the Fed could conceivably raise interest rates, though analysts have largely dismissed that possibility.
The interim rally in stocks has, since the middle of February, clawed back more than two-thirds of the losses incurred during the six-week decline from the start of January to the middle of February. Nothing seems to be able to send stocks back to their 2016 lows, though getting back to all-time highs would be something of a surprise, considering the slow growth rates of economies around the world, and especially in developed nations.
There's a week left before the FOMC meeting, at which point sentiment may take a turn to the negative, though, if the Fed continues to keep rates at their abnormally low rates, the party crowd on Wall Street is likely to break out the champagne, hats, and favors, bidding up equities beyond reasonable valuations (some say they already have).
This is just normal churn, but no time to either stake out new positions nor panic. The markets seem content - like the US economy - to muddle along, delivering unsensational profits in a low-inflation, low-growth environment.
Friday's non-farm payroll report - as meaningless and unprovable as their spurious numbers might be - may provide some idea of sentiment going forward, but, at this point, the Fed is holding the most volatile hand of all the players, and they're not likely to bluff or fold. In typical Fed fashion, they'll be more likely to check, rather than raise the ante or call the hands.
Wednesday's Sleeper:
S&P 500: 1,986.45, +8.10 (0.41%)
DOW: 16,899.32, +34.24 (0.20%)
NASDAQ: 4,703.42, +13.83 (0.29%)
Crude Oil 34.65 +0.73% Gold 1,241.70 +0.89% EUR/USD 1.0867 -0.01% 10-Yr Bond 1.8480 +0.76% Corn 355.75 +0.07% Copper 2.19 +2.21% Silver 15.01 +1.69% Natural Gas 1.67 -4.13% Russell 2000 1,065.67 +1.06% VIX 17.12 -3.28% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4079 +0.91% USD/JPY 113.38
But, today was a day for repositioning, after ADP got the party started by reporting that private employers added 214,000 jobs in February. [Full report here]
Stocks initially had the blues, trading in the red for most of the morning, until European markets closed, then quickly erasing all losses, hugging the UNCH line for the remainder of the session.
While stocks were lacking in volatility and volume, commodities got a bit of a boost, with oil, gold and silver headed handily higher.
It was a lackluster session due to uncertainty about next week's FOMC meeting, one which the Fed could conceivably raise interest rates, though analysts have largely dismissed that possibility.
The interim rally in stocks has, since the middle of February, clawed back more than two-thirds of the losses incurred during the six-week decline from the start of January to the middle of February. Nothing seems to be able to send stocks back to their 2016 lows, though getting back to all-time highs would be something of a surprise, considering the slow growth rates of economies around the world, and especially in developed nations.
There's a week left before the FOMC meeting, at which point sentiment may take a turn to the negative, though, if the Fed continues to keep rates at their abnormally low rates, the party crowd on Wall Street is likely to break out the champagne, hats, and favors, bidding up equities beyond reasonable valuations (some say they already have).
This is just normal churn, but no time to either stake out new positions nor panic. The markets seem content - like the US economy - to muddle along, delivering unsensational profits in a low-inflation, low-growth environment.
Friday's non-farm payroll report - as meaningless and unprovable as their spurious numbers might be - may provide some idea of sentiment going forward, but, at this point, the Fed is holding the most volatile hand of all the players, and they're not likely to bluff or fold. In typical Fed fashion, they'll be more likely to check, rather than raise the ante or call the hands.
Wednesday's Sleeper:
S&P 500: 1,986.45, +8.10 (0.41%)
DOW: 16,899.32, +34.24 (0.20%)
NASDAQ: 4,703.42, +13.83 (0.29%)
Crude Oil 34.65 +0.73% Gold 1,241.70 +0.89% EUR/USD 1.0867 -0.01% 10-Yr Bond 1.8480 +0.76% Corn 355.75 +0.07% Copper 2.19 +2.21% Silver 15.01 +1.69% Natural Gas 1.67 -4.13% Russell 2000 1,065.67 +1.06% VIX 17.12 -3.28% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4079 +0.91% USD/JPY 113.38
Monday, April 6, 2015
Exceedingly Poor Jobs Data Sends Stocks Soaring (the new normal)
Sometimes, it's just all too predictable.
When I saw the March jobs number on Friday, and the futures plunging, because, you know, 135,000 net new jobs in the US was about half of what was expected from the goal-seeking BLS.
Revisions to January and February cast an even more dismal pallor over the market, which, gratefully, was closed on Friday.
By Monday morning, stock futures were still in the doldrums and the Dow opened to an immediate loss of over 100 points, but the decline was soon to be erased by the "bad news is good news" crowd and voices from the Fed singing in united, dovish tones, to the tune of ZIRP 4 EVA.
Yep, like I had thought on Friday, a winning day for stocks. Meanwhile the US economy collapses like a house of cards in a wind storm.
Is there no end to this nightmare of a centrally-planned global economy? (Please, don't answer that.)
Dow 17,880.85, +117.61 (0.66%)
S&P 500 2,080.62, +13.66 (0.66%)
NASDAQ 4,917.32, +30.38 (0.62%)
When I saw the March jobs number on Friday, and the futures plunging, because, you know, 135,000 net new jobs in the US was about half of what was expected from the goal-seeking BLS.
Revisions to January and February cast an even more dismal pallor over the market, which, gratefully, was closed on Friday.
By Monday morning, stock futures were still in the doldrums and the Dow opened to an immediate loss of over 100 points, but the decline was soon to be erased by the "bad news is good news" crowd and voices from the Fed singing in united, dovish tones, to the tune of ZIRP 4 EVA.
Yep, like I had thought on Friday, a winning day for stocks. Meanwhile the US economy collapses like a house of cards in a wind storm.
Is there no end to this nightmare of a centrally-planned global economy? (Please, don't answer that.)
Dow 17,880.85, +117.61 (0.66%)
S&P 500 2,080.62, +13.66 (0.66%)
NASDAQ 4,917.32, +30.38 (0.62%)
Wednesday, April 1, 2015
April's Fools: Stocks Continue Slide
As noted yesterday, something is not quite right about the US equity markets, and, whatever it is, it's starting to get the attention of the investor class, or, at least the computer algos that make the trades for the investor class.
Stocks continued the slide begun on Tuesday, which already sent the Dow Industrials to negative on the year and is threateneing to do the same for the NASDAQ and S&P 500.
Main among culprits leading to displeasure with stocks is the disconnect between the real economy and the Wall Street economy. In the real economy, people have to make choices, every day, hour by hour, minute by minute, and those choices, magnified by the 300+ million Americans become what are known as statistics. These statistics are not, and have not, jibed with the "recovery" mantra so popular with the government and Wall Street crowd, the one which claims everybody is working and nobody is hurting, when in fact, major segments of the population are suffering from the strains of a controlled and contrived economy that favors only a small slice of very wealthy individuals.
By age group, it goes something like this: teens and college-age individuals can't find decent jobs in many places, and, while college students, generally, as a group, are not working, teens and those in their early 20s are finding the pickings pretty slim and opportunity for advancement a challenge. Wages are low, the work is monotonous or dreary, the bosses are boot-licking jack-asses and the fringe benefits are - in general terms - nil, as in, NONE.
College students, once they graduate, if they are fortunate enough to find gainful employment, are often up to their ears in student loan debt, the average being $27,000 for a four-year degree. Many are not finding work that pays well enough to pay off the loans, rent an apartment and live like a normal human, so many of these twenty-somethings are habitating in parents' basements, smoking herb and playing video games in between their postings on insta-chat or twitter-face or whatever the app du jour happens to be.
Then there are those who used to be known as middle class, the folks in their 30s, 40s and early 50s, with or without kids at home or away or actually grown, drowned in debt from auto loans, living in underwater homes they cannot sell, and denied any upward mobility because they are linked to the national ball-and-chain known as a credit score. Some are doing OK, but the hours are long, the taxes never stop and keep going higher, and maintaining an outward appearance of peace and civility is becoming harder and harder.
Following after them are the soon-to-be-retired baby boomers, who hope that the stock market doesn't crash, who long to be soon done with working seemingly forever for less then they're worth, who are told to spend rather than save, and who don't see the point of saving since interest rates are so low, it's simply not worth the effort. Every day, something else annoys them a little bit. A higher price for a staple item, or, what's even more common, less of the same item for the same price. Or a new tax, a new law, some absurd thing like "freedom of religion" or "anti-this-or-that" legislation.
Seniors, those above and beyond the age of 65, are trying to hang on, if at all, with social security and a medical plan they neither appreciate nor understand. Co-pays keep rising, the quality of care declines. Their savings are stuck in neutral, thanks to the Fed's wisdom of keeping interest rates at zero for the past seven years. They're slowly bleeding to death from places they didn't know they had.
Amidst all of the age groups are sub-groups, like small business owners, buried under government paperwork and besiged by regulations and onerous taxes, and, what's become known as the FSA (Free S--t Army), the legions of welfare and disability sufferers who live beneath the general strata of society, seeking nothing more than a monthly rent check, food stamps, an Obamaphone and free health care. Those, and a flat-screen TV covers the extent of their pretty-much worthless lives.
Of course, we have the useful idiots who work for government and its myriad levels: teachers, police, paper-shufflers or all kinds, getting fat on the public expense account, oblivious to the plight of their fellow citizens in the real world economy. These types retire after 20 or 30 years of wasteful spending of taxpayer money, just to waste even more with their lavish pensions.
Striding atop all of these folks are the politicians and financiers of Washington and Wall Street, and state capitols and in municipal government positions.
And they're no longer laughing. At least some of them aren't. They know, that but for the grace of these hordes of individuals suffering under tax slavery and monetary repression, they and their ilk would be hung, burned or somehow disenfranchised. They can only hope to keep the game going another day, another week, another year, another election, because when it ends, they have no skills by which they could fend for themselves. They would be set adrift into a seas of unhappiness and misery, like the rest of the population.
If they're not worried, they should be, because this system is ripping and tearing at the seams, because it is unsustainable. There's only so much fraud and so much money out of thin air that can cover up the obvious defects.
But, give the oligarchs, politicians and financial whiz-kids their due. They've kept the system alive longer than anyone could have expected them to, all the time since March of 2009. Six years is not a long time, but 10 is, and 15 is longer, and there's little doubt there will be changes - for which we all are mutually unprepared - to come.
Dow 17,698.18, -77.94 (-0.44%)
S&P 500 2,059.69, -8.20 (-0.40%)
NASDAQ 4,880.23, -20.66 (-0.42%)
Stocks continued the slide begun on Tuesday, which already sent the Dow Industrials to negative on the year and is threateneing to do the same for the NASDAQ and S&P 500.
Main among culprits leading to displeasure with stocks is the disconnect between the real economy and the Wall Street economy. In the real economy, people have to make choices, every day, hour by hour, minute by minute, and those choices, magnified by the 300+ million Americans become what are known as statistics. These statistics are not, and have not, jibed with the "recovery" mantra so popular with the government and Wall Street crowd, the one which claims everybody is working and nobody is hurting, when in fact, major segments of the population are suffering from the strains of a controlled and contrived economy that favors only a small slice of very wealthy individuals.
By age group, it goes something like this: teens and college-age individuals can't find decent jobs in many places, and, while college students, generally, as a group, are not working, teens and those in their early 20s are finding the pickings pretty slim and opportunity for advancement a challenge. Wages are low, the work is monotonous or dreary, the bosses are boot-licking jack-asses and the fringe benefits are - in general terms - nil, as in, NONE.
College students, once they graduate, if they are fortunate enough to find gainful employment, are often up to their ears in student loan debt, the average being $27,000 for a four-year degree. Many are not finding work that pays well enough to pay off the loans, rent an apartment and live like a normal human, so many of these twenty-somethings are habitating in parents' basements, smoking herb and playing video games in between their postings on insta-chat or twitter-face or whatever the app du jour happens to be.
Then there are those who used to be known as middle class, the folks in their 30s, 40s and early 50s, with or without kids at home or away or actually grown, drowned in debt from auto loans, living in underwater homes they cannot sell, and denied any upward mobility because they are linked to the national ball-and-chain known as a credit score. Some are doing OK, but the hours are long, the taxes never stop and keep going higher, and maintaining an outward appearance of peace and civility is becoming harder and harder.
Following after them are the soon-to-be-retired baby boomers, who hope that the stock market doesn't crash, who long to be soon done with working seemingly forever for less then they're worth, who are told to spend rather than save, and who don't see the point of saving since interest rates are so low, it's simply not worth the effort. Every day, something else annoys them a little bit. A higher price for a staple item, or, what's even more common, less of the same item for the same price. Or a new tax, a new law, some absurd thing like "freedom of religion" or "anti-this-or-that" legislation.
Seniors, those above and beyond the age of 65, are trying to hang on, if at all, with social security and a medical plan they neither appreciate nor understand. Co-pays keep rising, the quality of care declines. Their savings are stuck in neutral, thanks to the Fed's wisdom of keeping interest rates at zero for the past seven years. They're slowly bleeding to death from places they didn't know they had.
Amidst all of the age groups are sub-groups, like small business owners, buried under government paperwork and besiged by regulations and onerous taxes, and, what's become known as the FSA (Free S--t Army), the legions of welfare and disability sufferers who live beneath the general strata of society, seeking nothing more than a monthly rent check, food stamps, an Obamaphone and free health care. Those, and a flat-screen TV covers the extent of their pretty-much worthless lives.
Of course, we have the useful idiots who work for government and its myriad levels: teachers, police, paper-shufflers or all kinds, getting fat on the public expense account, oblivious to the plight of their fellow citizens in the real world economy. These types retire after 20 or 30 years of wasteful spending of taxpayer money, just to waste even more with their lavish pensions.
Striding atop all of these folks are the politicians and financiers of Washington and Wall Street, and state capitols and in municipal government positions.
And they're no longer laughing. At least some of them aren't. They know, that but for the grace of these hordes of individuals suffering under tax slavery and monetary repression, they and their ilk would be hung, burned or somehow disenfranchised. They can only hope to keep the game going another day, another week, another year, another election, because when it ends, they have no skills by which they could fend for themselves. They would be set adrift into a seas of unhappiness and misery, like the rest of the population.
If they're not worried, they should be, because this system is ripping and tearing at the seams, because it is unsustainable. There's only so much fraud and so much money out of thin air that can cover up the obvious defects.
But, give the oligarchs, politicians and financial whiz-kids their due. They've kept the system alive longer than anyone could have expected them to, all the time since March of 2009. Six years is not a long time, but 10 is, and 15 is longer, and there's little doubt there will be changes - for which we all are mutually unprepared - to come.
Dow 17,698.18, -77.94 (-0.44%)
S&P 500 2,059.69, -8.20 (-0.40%)
NASDAQ 4,880.23, -20.66 (-0.42%)
Wednesday, February 5, 2014
Stocks Flat to Lower After Disappointing ADP Employment Report
Stocks could not extend Tuesday's relief rally after hearing the ADP January Employment Report, which assumed US private sector job growth of 175,000, when estimates were for 185,000.
Note the use of the word "assumes" in the foregoing paragraph, because ADP does not rely upon hard data, but extrapolates and models from sampling, thus their estimates are often far afield from reality, as displayed clearly last month, when the private firm called 238,000 job growth (revised down to 227,000) and two days later, the BLS offered 74,000 in their monthly non-farm payroll data series.
Who's right and who's wrong is not the question. The question is who can be trusted, and clearly, with the goal-sought nature of economic data reports in the "Fed era" of economics in which we currently reside, the answer is, nobody.
Anecdotal and real-life experience may be more instructive than government or private data releases at this juncture, and, by most accounts, in most areas of the United States, there are few hirings and the jobs offered are either part-time or menial or both. The job market is definitely not what one could in any way, shape or form, call robust.
Stocks took a bumpy ride - mostly on the downside - to get to generally unchanged on the day. Being that the ADP numbers have long been deemed untrustworthy, most speculators are attempting to hang in the market until Friday, when the BLS releases January jobs numbers, which, if the weather is any guide, figure to be uninspiring.
The good news came in the form of gold and silver gains on the day, though, as has been noted, cannot be met with much enthusiasm, since the precious metals have been largely range-bound for the past three months and show no signs of breaking out. Still, those investing in hard assets have to be sleeping better than their counterparts in equities, since they can at least claim some degree of stability during the past six weeks of general market declines.
Reporting after the bell was Twitter (TWTR), showing a gain of two cents (ex-items) for the fourth quarter, against estimates of a two cent loss. User growth was around eight million for the quarter, below estimates, which sent the stock down 10-15% in after-hours trading. Regarding Twitter's valuation of 57-58 dollars per share, assuming they make ten cents in all of 2014, puts their price-earnings ration somewhere in the ionosphere, around 570-580. They don't call it speculation for nothing, folks.
Despite the small losses in the headline numbers, internals were rather nasty. The A-D line was nearly 2-1 in favor of losers and new 52-week lows were triple the number of new highs, an indicator which is trending very negatively.
Bonds sold off, sending the 10-year note to 2.67% yield, and the 3-month and 6-month bills matched up at at yield of 0.06, not an encouraging trend either, as, if they invert, history tells us conclusively that recessions follow, and a recession is not anything the economy can withstand right now.
DOW 15,440.23, -5.01 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ 4,011.55, -19.97 (-0.50%)
S&P 1,751.64, -3.56 (-0.20%)
10-Yr Note 100.67, -0.33 (-0.33%) Yield: 2.67
NASDAQ VOLUME 1.96 Bil
NYSE Volume 3.97 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2065-3617
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 51-154
WTI crude oil: 97.38, +0.19
Gold: 1,256.90, +5.70
Silver: 19.80, +0.383
Corn: 443.25, +1.50
Note the use of the word "assumes" in the foregoing paragraph, because ADP does not rely upon hard data, but extrapolates and models from sampling, thus their estimates are often far afield from reality, as displayed clearly last month, when the private firm called 238,000 job growth (revised down to 227,000) and two days later, the BLS offered 74,000 in their monthly non-farm payroll data series.
Who's right and who's wrong is not the question. The question is who can be trusted, and clearly, with the goal-sought nature of economic data reports in the "Fed era" of economics in which we currently reside, the answer is, nobody.
Anecdotal and real-life experience may be more instructive than government or private data releases at this juncture, and, by most accounts, in most areas of the United States, there are few hirings and the jobs offered are either part-time or menial or both. The job market is definitely not what one could in any way, shape or form, call robust.
Stocks took a bumpy ride - mostly on the downside - to get to generally unchanged on the day. Being that the ADP numbers have long been deemed untrustworthy, most speculators are attempting to hang in the market until Friday, when the BLS releases January jobs numbers, which, if the weather is any guide, figure to be uninspiring.
The good news came in the form of gold and silver gains on the day, though, as has been noted, cannot be met with much enthusiasm, since the precious metals have been largely range-bound for the past three months and show no signs of breaking out. Still, those investing in hard assets have to be sleeping better than their counterparts in equities, since they can at least claim some degree of stability during the past six weeks of general market declines.
Reporting after the bell was Twitter (TWTR), showing a gain of two cents (ex-items) for the fourth quarter, against estimates of a two cent loss. User growth was around eight million for the quarter, below estimates, which sent the stock down 10-15% in after-hours trading. Regarding Twitter's valuation of 57-58 dollars per share, assuming they make ten cents in all of 2014, puts their price-earnings ration somewhere in the ionosphere, around 570-580. They don't call it speculation for nothing, folks.
Despite the small losses in the headline numbers, internals were rather nasty. The A-D line was nearly 2-1 in favor of losers and new 52-week lows were triple the number of new highs, an indicator which is trending very negatively.
Bonds sold off, sending the 10-year note to 2.67% yield, and the 3-month and 6-month bills matched up at at yield of 0.06, not an encouraging trend either, as, if they invert, history tells us conclusively that recessions follow, and a recession is not anything the economy can withstand right now.
DOW 15,440.23, -5.01 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ 4,011.55, -19.97 (-0.50%)
S&P 1,751.64, -3.56 (-0.20%)
10-Yr Note 100.67, -0.33 (-0.33%) Yield: 2.67
NASDAQ VOLUME 1.96 Bil
NYSE Volume 3.97 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2065-3617
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 51-154
WTI crude oil: 97.38, +0.19
Gold: 1,256.90, +5.70
Silver: 19.80, +0.383
Corn: 443.25, +1.50
Tuesday, July 2, 2013
Turn-Around Tuesday: Stocks Gain Early, Finish Red
There isn't really much to this stock story. The Bulls and Bears went to the wall today and guess what?
The Bears won.
It's a holiday-shortened week, loaded with economic data, not the least of which are tomorrow's ADP June employment report and Friday's BLS Non-Farm payroll issue. Turmoil in Egypt is causing consternation and earnings releases are right around the corner.
For the short-timers, the payroll data is paramount, but the trend keeps biasing to the downside. It's mid-summer, stocks are expected to report weaker earnings, all the while the US dollar is gaining against almost all other currencies as the cleanest shirt in the laundry bin.
Lots of headwinds and most astute players have already established positions. The only matter may be how far down stocks must dive to flush out the more-hardened holders.
Even though tomorrow is a short session, closing at 1:00 pm EDT, there should be fireworks ahead. Keep a close eye on the 14,850 level on the Dow as key support.
Dow 14,932.41, -42.55 (0.28%)
NASDAQ 3,433.40, -1.09 (0.03%)
S&P 500 1,614.08, -0.88 (0.05%)
NYSE Composite 9,144.59, -23.30 (0.25%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,645,609,250
NYSE Volume 3,621,029,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2778-3734
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 301-48
WTI crude oil: 99.60, +1.61
Gold: 1,243.40, -12.30
Silver: 19.31, -0.269
The Bears won.
It's a holiday-shortened week, loaded with economic data, not the least of which are tomorrow's ADP June employment report and Friday's BLS Non-Farm payroll issue. Turmoil in Egypt is causing consternation and earnings releases are right around the corner.
For the short-timers, the payroll data is paramount, but the trend keeps biasing to the downside. It's mid-summer, stocks are expected to report weaker earnings, all the while the US dollar is gaining against almost all other currencies as the cleanest shirt in the laundry bin.
Lots of headwinds and most astute players have already established positions. The only matter may be how far down stocks must dive to flush out the more-hardened holders.
Even though tomorrow is a short session, closing at 1:00 pm EDT, there should be fireworks ahead. Keep a close eye on the 14,850 level on the Dow as key support.
Dow 14,932.41, -42.55 (0.28%)
NASDAQ 3,433.40, -1.09 (0.03%)
S&P 500 1,614.08, -0.88 (0.05%)
NYSE Composite 9,144.59, -23.30 (0.25%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,645,609,250
NYSE Volume 3,621,029,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2778-3734
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 301-48
WTI crude oil: 99.60, +1.61
Gold: 1,243.40, -12.30
Silver: 19.31, -0.269
Friday, May 3, 2013
Non-Farm Payrolls for April Send Markets Screaming Higher
When the BLS posted the non-farm payroll data for April at 165,000 - well beyond even the most optimistic guesses (average 145,000) - it was just what the Wall Street syndicate needed to push the S&P over 1600 - a new all-time high - and send everyone home for the weekend a winner.
Never mind that the numbers are mostly a fabrication of modeling, birth-death adjustments, include part-time employees and that the average workweek fell by 0.1%, effectively eliminating most of the gain, or that the March figure was 50% off and raised to a new level, it worked wonders for the market, soullessly searching for any kind of news, good, bad or inconsequential.
Whether one believes these numbers are meaningful, truthful or indicative of anything, doesn't really matter. It's simply more fodder for the one-percenters with which to feed their insatiable greed.
Welcome to the new world dis-order. Enjoy the Kentucky Derby and the weekend. At least we believe the horse races to be honest gambling venues.
Dow 14,973.96, +142.38 (0.96%)
NASDAQ 3,378.63, +38.01 (1.14%)
S&P 500 1,614.42, +16.83 (1.05%)
NYSE Composite 9,340.37, +93.64 (1.01%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,671,711,875
NYSE Volume 3,914,186,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4734-1747
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 758-33 (beyond extreme: ridiculous)
WTI crude oil: 95.61, +1.62
Gold: 1,464.20, -3.40
Silver: 24.01, +0.184
Never mind that the numbers are mostly a fabrication of modeling, birth-death adjustments, include part-time employees and that the average workweek fell by 0.1%, effectively eliminating most of the gain, or that the March figure was 50% off and raised to a new level, it worked wonders for the market, soullessly searching for any kind of news, good, bad or inconsequential.
Whether one believes these numbers are meaningful, truthful or indicative of anything, doesn't really matter. It's simply more fodder for the one-percenters with which to feed their insatiable greed.
Welcome to the new world dis-order. Enjoy the Kentucky Derby and the weekend. At least we believe the horse races to be honest gambling venues.
Dow 14,973.96, +142.38 (0.96%)
NASDAQ 3,378.63, +38.01 (1.14%)
S&P 500 1,614.42, +16.83 (1.05%)
NYSE Composite 9,340.37, +93.64 (1.01%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,671,711,875
NYSE Volume 3,914,186,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4734-1747
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 758-33 (beyond extreme: ridiculous)
WTI crude oil: 95.61, +1.62
Gold: 1,464.20, -3.40
Silver: 24.01, +0.184
Friday, September 7, 2012
August Non-Farm Payrolls Miss Flatlines Stocks
The US economy showed another sign of sluggishness, as August Non-farm Payrolls rose less than expected, gaining 96,000 net new jobs for the month, well below consensus estimates of 125,000.
Additionally, June and July data sets were revised downward by a combined 41,000. June payrolls were just 45,000, while the number in July was revised down to 141,000.
The official jobless rate fell from 8.3% to 8.1%, as labor force participation fell to its lowest level in decades, at 63.5%.
The poor showing for the labor market was seen as a blow to president Obama's re-election bid, and also as cause for the Fed supplying more stimulus when the FOMC meets next week.
Volume more or less returned to the doldrums, following the massive ramp-up Thursday, following the unveiling of the ECB's new bond purchase program.
Stocks tended to just meander around the flat line, with the odd exception of the NYSE Composite, which gapped up at the open and stayed in a tight range all session long.
It's somewhat a sad commentary on markets that they are so well-coordinated in response to news, specifically that this or that central bank is making money easier for bankers to borrow at little to no interest, all the while the general public scratching out a living without any mechanism for saving.
Outward appearances may be deceiving. This kind of controlled economics seldom works out well in the long run.
Precious metals may be telling the markets something. Gold and silver soared again today and are at multi-month highs, generally a sign that economic or geopolitical conditions are strained and risk assets not to be trusted, though one could hardly suspect that anything evil may come the way for stocks, as well as they have performed this year.
Dow 13,306.64, +14.64(0.11%)
Nasdaq 3,136.42, +0.61(0.02%)
S&P 500 1,437.92, +5.80(0.40%)
NYSE Composite 8,233.98, +73.42(0.90%)
NYSE Volume 3,627,325,750
Nasdaq Volume 1,694,756,120
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3490-1997
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 449-40 (extreme)
WTI crude oil: 96.42, +0.89
Gold: 1,740.50, +34.90
Silver: 33.69, +1.02
Additionally, June and July data sets were revised downward by a combined 41,000. June payrolls were just 45,000, while the number in July was revised down to 141,000.
The official jobless rate fell from 8.3% to 8.1%, as labor force participation fell to its lowest level in decades, at 63.5%.
The poor showing for the labor market was seen as a blow to president Obama's re-election bid, and also as cause for the Fed supplying more stimulus when the FOMC meets next week.
Volume more or less returned to the doldrums, following the massive ramp-up Thursday, following the unveiling of the ECB's new bond purchase program.
Stocks tended to just meander around the flat line, with the odd exception of the NYSE Composite, which gapped up at the open and stayed in a tight range all session long.
It's somewhat a sad commentary on markets that they are so well-coordinated in response to news, specifically that this or that central bank is making money easier for bankers to borrow at little to no interest, all the while the general public scratching out a living without any mechanism for saving.
Outward appearances may be deceiving. This kind of controlled economics seldom works out well in the long run.
Precious metals may be telling the markets something. Gold and silver soared again today and are at multi-month highs, generally a sign that economic or geopolitical conditions are strained and risk assets not to be trusted, though one could hardly suspect that anything evil may come the way for stocks, as well as they have performed this year.
Dow 13,306.64, +14.64(0.11%)
Nasdaq 3,136.42, +0.61(0.02%)
S&P 500 1,437.92, +5.80(0.40%)
NYSE Composite 8,233.98, +73.42(0.90%)
NYSE Volume 3,627,325,750
Nasdaq Volume 1,694,756,120
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3490-1997
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 449-40 (extreme)
WTI crude oil: 96.42, +0.89
Gold: 1,740.50, +34.90
Silver: 33.69, +1.02
Friday, May 4, 2012
Payroll Number Slams Stocks to the Deck
Yesterday in this space, it was suggested that the immediate future for stocks was all tied to today's non-farm payroll number from the BLS, and, as the ADP figure from Wednesday foretold, the results were lower than expectations and on the whole, put a serious dent in the "road to recovery" theory.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said 115,000 net new jobs were created in April, and the unemployment rate dipped to 8.1%, though the reason for the decline in unemployment were that more people ran to the end of their unemployment benefits and others left the workforce entirely. The US workforce participation rate shrank to 63.6% of the adult population, the lowest since 1981.
While the 115,000 new jobs are barely enough to keep pace with a growing workforce in normal times, in the abnormality of today, people are not entering the labor force, but leaving it, putting a very large question mark at the end of any discussion regarding jobs in the United State. It is obvious from this report and others before it that the country's businesses are simply not creating enough jobs to get back to anything even close to full employment. The reasons behind the non-hiring conditions are manifold, but are centered on lack of demand in a sluggish economy wracked by over-regulation and conflicting visions of the near future by legislators who have sat upon their hands and watched the economy deteriorate.
Stocks took a beating right at the start and continued their downward trajectory throughout the morning, finally bottoming out around the lunch hour. The remainder of the session was spent wringing hands, with no noticeable movement in either direction, as the major averages settled into a support range.
A variety of analysts took differing views on the NFP number, most making he point that this April number was a kind of "payback" for the strong numbers in January and February. However, those gains were - in a large part - due to accounting tinkering at the BLS with seasonal adjustments heading the suspect list of fudge-makers.
Governments shed 15,000 jobs, so the private sector growth was 130,000, which, after all, is still a gain, but the underlying trends of many marginally-employed people and those dropping out of the workforce remain problematic over the long haul. The 115,000 was well below consensus estimates for 162,000. whatever ways one wishes to spin it or slice it, a miss is still a miss and investors took note along with short term profits.
The results speak for themselves and put the country's economic future more or less on hold until the May numbers are released. That's a long time for uncertainty to fester and other events to take the situation to even worse levels. While a good portion of the labor condition is being led by political considerations, most of it is the pure stuff of economics textbooks. Slack demand and stagnancy, even in an era of absurdly low interest rates, makes hiring decisions problematic and possibly shelved for a future date. The decay of confidence at all levels of the business community continues to feed upon itself in a very non-virtuous loop, the most egregious effects being felt in the small and start-up areas, where most new jobs are created.
Analysts and pundits can make up all the excuses and white lies they like, but the numbers speak for themselves and they are not pretty.
Notably, new lows exceeded new highs for the first time in over a month, losing stocks were widespread, outnumbering winners by a 7:2 ratio. Oil took a severe downturn for the second straight day, closing below $99 per barrel for the first time since February. The $4.05 decline was the largest of 2012. Gas at the retail pump remains stubbornly high, despite recent pull-backs.
Gold and silver rebounded from recent declines, more in sympathy with unstable global economic conditions than any other factor.
Dow 13,038.27, -168.32 (1.27%)
NASDAQ 2,956.34, -67.96 (2.25%)
S&P 500 1,369.10, -22.47 (1.61%)
NYSE Composite 7,933.29, -116.59 (1.45%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,937,374,375
NYSE Volume 3,924,361,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1268-4345
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 88-140
WTI crude oil: 98.49, -4.05
Gold: 1,645.20, 10.40
Silver: 30.43, +0.42
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said 115,000 net new jobs were created in April, and the unemployment rate dipped to 8.1%, though the reason for the decline in unemployment were that more people ran to the end of their unemployment benefits and others left the workforce entirely. The US workforce participation rate shrank to 63.6% of the adult population, the lowest since 1981.
While the 115,000 new jobs are barely enough to keep pace with a growing workforce in normal times, in the abnormality of today, people are not entering the labor force, but leaving it, putting a very large question mark at the end of any discussion regarding jobs in the United State. It is obvious from this report and others before it that the country's businesses are simply not creating enough jobs to get back to anything even close to full employment. The reasons behind the non-hiring conditions are manifold, but are centered on lack of demand in a sluggish economy wracked by over-regulation and conflicting visions of the near future by legislators who have sat upon their hands and watched the economy deteriorate.
Stocks took a beating right at the start and continued their downward trajectory throughout the morning, finally bottoming out around the lunch hour. The remainder of the session was spent wringing hands, with no noticeable movement in either direction, as the major averages settled into a support range.
A variety of analysts took differing views on the NFP number, most making he point that this April number was a kind of "payback" for the strong numbers in January and February. However, those gains were - in a large part - due to accounting tinkering at the BLS with seasonal adjustments heading the suspect list of fudge-makers.
Governments shed 15,000 jobs, so the private sector growth was 130,000, which, after all, is still a gain, but the underlying trends of many marginally-employed people and those dropping out of the workforce remain problematic over the long haul. The 115,000 was well below consensus estimates for 162,000. whatever ways one wishes to spin it or slice it, a miss is still a miss and investors took note along with short term profits.
The results speak for themselves and put the country's economic future more or less on hold until the May numbers are released. That's a long time for uncertainty to fester and other events to take the situation to even worse levels. While a good portion of the labor condition is being led by political considerations, most of it is the pure stuff of economics textbooks. Slack demand and stagnancy, even in an era of absurdly low interest rates, makes hiring decisions problematic and possibly shelved for a future date. The decay of confidence at all levels of the business community continues to feed upon itself in a very non-virtuous loop, the most egregious effects being felt in the small and start-up areas, where most new jobs are created.
Analysts and pundits can make up all the excuses and white lies they like, but the numbers speak for themselves and they are not pretty.
Notably, new lows exceeded new highs for the first time in over a month, losing stocks were widespread, outnumbering winners by a 7:2 ratio. Oil took a severe downturn for the second straight day, closing below $99 per barrel for the first time since February. The $4.05 decline was the largest of 2012. Gas at the retail pump remains stubbornly high, despite recent pull-backs.
Gold and silver rebounded from recent declines, more in sympathy with unstable global economic conditions than any other factor.
Dow 13,038.27, -168.32 (1.27%)
NASDAQ 2,956.34, -67.96 (2.25%)
S&P 500 1,369.10, -22.47 (1.61%)
NYSE Composite 7,933.29, -116.59 (1.45%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,937,374,375
NYSE Volume 3,924,361,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1268-4345
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 88-140
WTI crude oil: 98.49, -4.05
Gold: 1,645.20, 10.40
Silver: 30.43, +0.42
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
Bad Data Continues to Be Ignored by Equity Investors
In the continuing saga of the "recovery which refuses to jibe with reality," some data points delivered this morning shook things up for a while, though the declines were hardly notable.
Well before the opening bell, the monthly ADP Employment Report, which measure the change in private payrolls, came in well below expectations of 170,000, printing at a mediocre 119,000 for April. The survey, which serves as a precursor to the monthly BLS non-farm payroll report (due Friday) is forecasting a poor showing from the government's "official" report. As it is, the forecast for 162,000 net new jobs is just barely enough to keep pace with new entrants to the labor force (roughly 125,000), so any number below that on Friday will be a major blow to the proponents of sustained recovery.
Whether investors (or the machines actually doing 84% of the trades these days) will pay any heed is doubtful, though after April's sub-par showing, stocks put in their worst month in the past seven, so maybe somebody is paying attention to facts instead of relying on instinct and animal spirits.
At 10:00 am, March factory orders were announced at -1.5%, though expectations were for worse data, -1.8%, so this actually could have been seen as a win for equity participants (or their muppet clients).
Adding to the absurdity of economic data, another official figure showed oil stockpiles increasing by 2.840 million barrels, after last week's rise of 3.978 million. That data took oil prices lower by a mere 94 cents, though the price of a barrel of light, sweet crude continues to hover near 12-month highs, despite continuing slack demand. Chalk it up to corporate greed, excessive speculation and a Washington crowd that simply cannot afford to upset one of its main donor groups by actually clamping down on absurdly high prices at the pump.
In effect, the lower and middle classes of Americans now pay an additional tax in the form of these higher fuel prices, all the while oil drilling and recovery continues to be robust in North America. Perhaps the biggest insult to the American people is that oil currently being drilled in North Dakota and elsewhere in the states will more than likely be shipped abroad, where the oil cartel can fetch even higher prices.
So much for all the talk of energy independence and security. The empty suits in the nation's capitol don't deserve even a single vote in this November's elections, though a large number of Americans, stuck in their narrow world of cognitive dissonance with a healthy dose of normalcy bias, still believe in the two-party lie and will cast their votes for the lesser evil this fall, as if their individual votes actually counted (Hint: since 2000 they haven't.).
Days like today are tough on financial reporters, especially those who toe the official media line that all is well and things are getting better, when the evidence - and most public opinion polls - clearly displays the opposite. For those of us who like our facts served cold without garnishments, the temptation to break things or convulse in a spasm of disbelief is hardly bearable.
Come Friday, when the April non-farm reveals a bit more of the truth (though one can count on the BLS and their various fudging mechanisms to completely distort any data they can), perhaps the markets will begin to reflect what's really going in America: the complete and utter annihilation of the middle class and the remaining civil rights that haven't already been denied or abused by an oligarch government that's been off the rails for more than a decade.
Maybe, some day, when fewer than half the registered voters show up in the fall, the ruling class will get a hint that their reigns of power are not derived from the electorate, though it's doubtful they will even care.
Dow 13,268.57, -10.75 (0.08%)
NASDAQ 3,059.85, +9.41 (0.31%)
S&P 500 1,402.31, -3.51 (0.25%)
NYSE Composite 8,124.32, -39.71 (0.49%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,832,346,375
NYSE Volume 3,784,334,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2707-2890
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 187-66
WTI crude oil: 105.22, -0.94
Gold: 1,654.00, -8.40
Silver: 30.64, -0.29
Well before the opening bell, the monthly ADP Employment Report, which measure the change in private payrolls, came in well below expectations of 170,000, printing at a mediocre 119,000 for April. The survey, which serves as a precursor to the monthly BLS non-farm payroll report (due Friday) is forecasting a poor showing from the government's "official" report. As it is, the forecast for 162,000 net new jobs is just barely enough to keep pace with new entrants to the labor force (roughly 125,000), so any number below that on Friday will be a major blow to the proponents of sustained recovery.
Whether investors (or the machines actually doing 84% of the trades these days) will pay any heed is doubtful, though after April's sub-par showing, stocks put in their worst month in the past seven, so maybe somebody is paying attention to facts instead of relying on instinct and animal spirits.
At 10:00 am, March factory orders were announced at -1.5%, though expectations were for worse data, -1.8%, so this actually could have been seen as a win for equity participants (or their muppet clients).
Adding to the absurdity of economic data, another official figure showed oil stockpiles increasing by 2.840 million barrels, after last week's rise of 3.978 million. That data took oil prices lower by a mere 94 cents, though the price of a barrel of light, sweet crude continues to hover near 12-month highs, despite continuing slack demand. Chalk it up to corporate greed, excessive speculation and a Washington crowd that simply cannot afford to upset one of its main donor groups by actually clamping down on absurdly high prices at the pump.
In effect, the lower and middle classes of Americans now pay an additional tax in the form of these higher fuel prices, all the while oil drilling and recovery continues to be robust in North America. Perhaps the biggest insult to the American people is that oil currently being drilled in North Dakota and elsewhere in the states will more than likely be shipped abroad, where the oil cartel can fetch even higher prices.
So much for all the talk of energy independence and security. The empty suits in the nation's capitol don't deserve even a single vote in this November's elections, though a large number of Americans, stuck in their narrow world of cognitive dissonance with a healthy dose of normalcy bias, still believe in the two-party lie and will cast their votes for the lesser evil this fall, as if their individual votes actually counted (Hint: since 2000 they haven't.).
Days like today are tough on financial reporters, especially those who toe the official media line that all is well and things are getting better, when the evidence - and most public opinion polls - clearly displays the opposite. For those of us who like our facts served cold without garnishments, the temptation to break things or convulse in a spasm of disbelief is hardly bearable.
Come Friday, when the April non-farm reveals a bit more of the truth (though one can count on the BLS and their various fudging mechanisms to completely distort any data they can), perhaps the markets will begin to reflect what's really going in America: the complete and utter annihilation of the middle class and the remaining civil rights that haven't already been denied or abused by an oligarch government that's been off the rails for more than a decade.
Maybe, some day, when fewer than half the registered voters show up in the fall, the ruling class will get a hint that their reigns of power are not derived from the electorate, though it's doubtful they will even care.
Dow 13,268.57, -10.75 (0.08%)
NASDAQ 3,059.85, +9.41 (0.31%)
S&P 500 1,402.31, -3.51 (0.25%)
NYSE Composite 8,124.32, -39.71 (0.49%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,832,346,375
NYSE Volume 3,784,334,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2707-2890
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 187-66
WTI crude oil: 105.22, -0.94
Gold: 1,654.00, -8.40
Silver: 30.64, -0.29
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
Who Goosed the Stock Market? The PPT Did, That's Who
The more one endeavors to make sense of the movements of the major equity indices, the more one becomes convinced that there is major manipulation going on behind the scenes and today was just another prime example to throw into the conspiracy hopper.
While the Dow gained 78 points today, all of the gains were produced in roughly a one hour period, from 10:30 am to 11:30 am ET, on extremely light volume. The Dow moved from barely unchanged (12,760) to a gain of nearly eighty points (12,340), which just so happened to be roughly where it closed.
Did Greece's private debt holders agree to a deal at that hour? No.
Did ADP report a gain of 216,000 net private job gains for February. Sorry, that happened at 8:15 am, and the response was pretty muted.
So... let's see. Low volume (if today wasn't the lowest volume of the year, it was certainly close), stocks sliding back near unchanged right after a major selloff the previous session... like the calvary riding to the rescue in a cliche old time Western movie, the PPT - otherwise known as the Plunge Protection Team and officially known as the President's Working Group on Financial Markets has been hard at work ever since 1988, keeping US stock indices safe from free-falling collapses and lately, from even slight declines that might make the markets appear to be as weak as they really are and boosting stock prices when the trading activity all but dries up.
While Joe and Jane Sixpack reads just the headlines and understands nothing except, "honey, our retirement pension fund is up again!" out in the real world its endless money printing and insider stock manipulations that keep the American Dream alive and well.
It's become so blatant and obvious that it is rarely commented upon by even the most suspicious bloggers and underground financial writers. The mainstream press never mentions that the PPT has offices right in New York's financial district - the easier to send orders flying into the fray - or that said offices are owned by the NY Fed.
So, forget everything you just read and move along. You are not supposed to think, analyze or ask any questions. There's nothing to see here, or at least nothing you're supposed to see. In ten seconds your computer will automatically destroy this posting, and your brain will be wiped clean of the heretical commentary presented.
9...8...7...6...
Dow 12,837.33, +78.18 (0.61%)
NASDAQ 2,935.69, +25.37 (0.87%)
S&P 500 1,352.63, +9.27 (0.69%)
NYSE Composite 7,979.83, +59.69 (0.75%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,560,044,000
NYSE Volume 3,515,704,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4287-1316
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 93-43
WTI crude oil: 106.16, +1.46
Gold: 1,683.90, +11.80
Silver: 33.58, +0.80
While the Dow gained 78 points today, all of the gains were produced in roughly a one hour period, from 10:30 am to 11:30 am ET, on extremely light volume. The Dow moved from barely unchanged (12,760) to a gain of nearly eighty points (12,340), which just so happened to be roughly where it closed.
Did Greece's private debt holders agree to a deal at that hour? No.
Did ADP report a gain of 216,000 net private job gains for February. Sorry, that happened at 8:15 am, and the response was pretty muted.
So... let's see. Low volume (if today wasn't the lowest volume of the year, it was certainly close), stocks sliding back near unchanged right after a major selloff the previous session... like the calvary riding to the rescue in a cliche old time Western movie, the PPT - otherwise known as the Plunge Protection Team and officially known as the President's Working Group on Financial Markets has been hard at work ever since 1988, keeping US stock indices safe from free-falling collapses and lately, from even slight declines that might make the markets appear to be as weak as they really are and boosting stock prices when the trading activity all but dries up.
While Joe and Jane Sixpack reads just the headlines and understands nothing except, "honey, our retirement pension fund is up again!" out in the real world its endless money printing and insider stock manipulations that keep the American Dream alive and well.
It's become so blatant and obvious that it is rarely commented upon by even the most suspicious bloggers and underground financial writers. The mainstream press never mentions that the PPT has offices right in New York's financial district - the easier to send orders flying into the fray - or that said offices are owned by the NY Fed.
So, forget everything you just read and move along. You are not supposed to think, analyze or ask any questions. There's nothing to see here, or at least nothing you're supposed to see. In ten seconds your computer will automatically destroy this posting, and your brain will be wiped clean of the heretical commentary presented.
9...8...7...6...
Dow 12,837.33, +78.18 (0.61%)
NASDAQ 2,935.69, +25.37 (0.87%)
S&P 500 1,352.63, +9.27 (0.69%)
NYSE Composite 7,979.83, +59.69 (0.75%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,560,044,000
NYSE Volume 3,515,704,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4287-1316
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 93-43
WTI crude oil: 106.16, +1.46
Gold: 1,683.90, +11.80
Silver: 33.58, +0.80
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Santa (Ben Bernanke) Arrives Early in Europe; Gold, Silver Surge
Stocks worldwide were up sharply Wednesday on the news that the Federal Reserve, in conjunction with the Central Banks of Canada, England, Japan, Switzerland and the European Central Bank (ECB) agreed to lower the pricing on the existing temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements by 50 basis points.
It was an early Christmas gift that sparked a speculative rally and kept Europe from unraveling, again.
What we've repeatedly heard is that the current calamities of the Euro-zone are nothing like those encountered on American soil in 2008.
The plain fact that banks in Europe are under dire stress and in need of liquidity not only reprises 2008, but adds a crescendo affect that's akin to adding the NY Philharmonic, the Ohio State marching band and the Mormon Tabernacle Choir to the efforts of the Boston Pops.
Stresses on European banks, especially those in France, Belgium and Italy, have been exacerbating on a near-daily basis, with the potential for global contagion even greater than when Lehman Bros. was allowed to flail and fail.
Thus, as some unknown Europe-based bank was about to go under - rumors say $265 million in overnight borrowings from the ECB was the tip-off - the global elitist Central Bankers conspired to lift liquidity by lowering the borrowing rates on US Dollar swap arrangements by 50 basis points (1/2 percent).
Magically, not only was the global Ponzi financial system saved for the day, week or month, but the added benefit of having global equity markets spike 3-4% higher came along as an intended consequence. Yes, the globalists know what they're doing. Too bad for them that it doesn't work long term, as we know so well from recent history, circa September, 2008.
Here's a post, by none other than some character calling himself John Galt, that has both the 2008 and current Federal Reserve press releases. The similarities are striking, but also magnificent was the 2008 aftermath, the worst financial crisis of the last 70 or so years, and the resultant crash of the equity markets.
So, Santa came to town (Europe) dressed as Ben Bernanke, with his trusty elf, Tim Geithner, in tow, passing off presents to the good (and bad) bankers across the continent. While this constitutes Christmas and a Santa Claus Rally about a month prematurely, what can Europe and the global economy expect when the holiday actually arrives on December 25, lumps of coal, or perhaps soaring gold and silver prices?
The actual timing of the eventual collapse is still unknown, though this desperation move seems to indicate that the global financial structure is crumbling faster than the "unseen hands" of the central banks can prop it up. A dive in equities may not coincide with Christmas - that would be a shame - but rather sometime in early 2012, likely in the first quarter and quite possibly in January as profits are taken early in the year on stocks pumped to unwieldy heights in December. The net results being a relatively weaker dollar and higher prices for just about anything one consumes or needs. When the crash comes, of course, the Euro will descend and the dollar will rise, though the effect is probably short-term, until the Easter Bunny fills up those empty bank liquidity baskets again.
As the adage implies, this massive liquidity gift may indeed have a silver lining, encrusted with much-higher-priced gold.
Prior to the Fed's announcement, the People's Bank of China cut bank reserve requirements for the first time in three years, by 0.5%, amid signs that the Chinese economy is slowing due to slack demand for China's exports, particularly from Europe.
After the announcement, with futures up dramatically, ADP released its November Employment Change results, showing the creation of 206,000 private sector jobs during the month. The private survey is a regular precursor to Friday's BLS non-farm payroll data.
Third quarter productivity was measured as up 2.3%, while unit labor costs fell 2.5% as companies hunker down, doing more with fewer employees.
Fifteen minutes into the trading session, Chicago PMI reported a big jump, from 58.4 in October to 62.6 in November. It was an unnecessary boost to a market which had already spiked higher at the open.
There was no fade in this one-day rally, coming conveniently on the last day of the month, traditionally the day reserved for "window dressing" by fund managers. Stocks were up monstrously on the open and continued along a high, flat line for the rest of the session, until a final short-covering episode in the final fifteen minutes pushed indices even higher.
Just speculating, but it had to be one of the best market moves of the year, if not the best. Volume was sufficient, though not overwhelming. The late-day surge may be indicating that even more easy money will flow from the Fed to the hampered Eurozone.
As to whether the moves in stocks are sustainable and the even more important question of whether or not Europe is "fixed," the answers will only be known at some future date. The most cogent commentaries on Europe suggest that today's coordinated central bank motivation only covers over a dire condition in the European banking sector and is nothing more than a liquidity band-aid on a solvency open gash. Europe's funding problems remain unresolved, though any mention of default or collapse has probably been delayed by a few weeks or a month.
And just in case you're worried about food shortages or another recession, the Obama administration and congress actually did accomplish something, recently having lifted the five-year-old ban on slaughtering horses in America. Not to worry, though. Americans won't be eating Little Red Pony or Trigger any time soon (we hope). The meat will likely be shipped to Japan or Europe. However, if this is a trend-setter, cans of Lassie, Rin Tin Tin or Boo Boo Kitty may be in supermarkets soon. Dog food and cat food may take on newer, twisted meanings.
Dow 12,045.68, +490.05 (4.24%)
NASDAQ 2,620.34, +104.83 (4.17%)
S&P 500 1,246.96, +51.77 (4.33%)
NYSE Composite 7,484.49, +334.78 (4.68%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,386,048,000
NYSE Volume 5,808,163,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4913-861
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 161-68 (this has rolled over)
WTI crude oil: 100.36. +0.56
Gold: 1,745.50, +32.10
Silver: 32.73, +0.88
It was an early Christmas gift that sparked a speculative rally and kept Europe from unraveling, again.
What we've repeatedly heard is that the current calamities of the Euro-zone are nothing like those encountered on American soil in 2008.
The plain fact that banks in Europe are under dire stress and in need of liquidity not only reprises 2008, but adds a crescendo affect that's akin to adding the NY Philharmonic, the Ohio State marching band and the Mormon Tabernacle Choir to the efforts of the Boston Pops.
Stresses on European banks, especially those in France, Belgium and Italy, have been exacerbating on a near-daily basis, with the potential for global contagion even greater than when Lehman Bros. was allowed to flail and fail.
Thus, as some unknown Europe-based bank was about to go under - rumors say $265 million in overnight borrowings from the ECB was the tip-off - the global elitist Central Bankers conspired to lift liquidity by lowering the borrowing rates on US Dollar swap arrangements by 50 basis points (1/2 percent).
Magically, not only was the global Ponzi financial system saved for the day, week or month, but the added benefit of having global equity markets spike 3-4% higher came along as an intended consequence. Yes, the globalists know what they're doing. Too bad for them that it doesn't work long term, as we know so well from recent history, circa September, 2008.
Here's a post, by none other than some character calling himself John Galt, that has both the 2008 and current Federal Reserve press releases. The similarities are striking, but also magnificent was the 2008 aftermath, the worst financial crisis of the last 70 or so years, and the resultant crash of the equity markets.
So, Santa came to town (Europe) dressed as Ben Bernanke, with his trusty elf, Tim Geithner, in tow, passing off presents to the good (and bad) bankers across the continent. While this constitutes Christmas and a Santa Claus Rally about a month prematurely, what can Europe and the global economy expect when the holiday actually arrives on December 25, lumps of coal, or perhaps soaring gold and silver prices?
The actual timing of the eventual collapse is still unknown, though this desperation move seems to indicate that the global financial structure is crumbling faster than the "unseen hands" of the central banks can prop it up. A dive in equities may not coincide with Christmas - that would be a shame - but rather sometime in early 2012, likely in the first quarter and quite possibly in January as profits are taken early in the year on stocks pumped to unwieldy heights in December. The net results being a relatively weaker dollar and higher prices for just about anything one consumes or needs. When the crash comes, of course, the Euro will descend and the dollar will rise, though the effect is probably short-term, until the Easter Bunny fills up those empty bank liquidity baskets again.
As the adage implies, this massive liquidity gift may indeed have a silver lining, encrusted with much-higher-priced gold.
Prior to the Fed's announcement, the People's Bank of China cut bank reserve requirements for the first time in three years, by 0.5%, amid signs that the Chinese economy is slowing due to slack demand for China's exports, particularly from Europe.
After the announcement, with futures up dramatically, ADP released its November Employment Change results, showing the creation of 206,000 private sector jobs during the month. The private survey is a regular precursor to Friday's BLS non-farm payroll data.
Third quarter productivity was measured as up 2.3%, while unit labor costs fell 2.5% as companies hunker down, doing more with fewer employees.
Fifteen minutes into the trading session, Chicago PMI reported a big jump, from 58.4 in October to 62.6 in November. It was an unnecessary boost to a market which had already spiked higher at the open.
There was no fade in this one-day rally, coming conveniently on the last day of the month, traditionally the day reserved for "window dressing" by fund managers. Stocks were up monstrously on the open and continued along a high, flat line for the rest of the session, until a final short-covering episode in the final fifteen minutes pushed indices even higher.
Just speculating, but it had to be one of the best market moves of the year, if not the best. Volume was sufficient, though not overwhelming. The late-day surge may be indicating that even more easy money will flow from the Fed to the hampered Eurozone.
As to whether the moves in stocks are sustainable and the even more important question of whether or not Europe is "fixed," the answers will only be known at some future date. The most cogent commentaries on Europe suggest that today's coordinated central bank motivation only covers over a dire condition in the European banking sector and is nothing more than a liquidity band-aid on a solvency open gash. Europe's funding problems remain unresolved, though any mention of default or collapse has probably been delayed by a few weeks or a month.
And just in case you're worried about food shortages or another recession, the Obama administration and congress actually did accomplish something, recently having lifted the five-year-old ban on slaughtering horses in America. Not to worry, though. Americans won't be eating Little Red Pony or Trigger any time soon (we hope). The meat will likely be shipped to Japan or Europe. However, if this is a trend-setter, cans of Lassie, Rin Tin Tin or Boo Boo Kitty may be in supermarkets soon. Dog food and cat food may take on newer, twisted meanings.
Dow 12,045.68, +490.05 (4.24%)
NASDAQ 2,620.34, +104.83 (4.17%)
S&P 500 1,246.96, +51.77 (4.33%)
NYSE Composite 7,484.49, +334.78 (4.68%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,386,048,000
NYSE Volume 5,808,163,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4913-861
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 161-68 (this has rolled over)
WTI crude oil: 100.36. +0.56
Gold: 1,745.50, +32.10
Silver: 32.73, +0.88
Friday, November 4, 2011
Stocks Drop Initially on Poor Employment Data, Recover Late; G20 Soothes Nerves
Friday was a fitting end of the week for stocks, a the BLS released some very sketchy employment data that sent investors initially to the sell windows, shedding stocks that have run up nicely over the past two sessions.
The week included two rather large down days followed by a pair of higher sessions and Friday's slight sell-off. The Labor Department reported that the US gained 80,000 jobs in its monthly non-farm payroll release, 104,000 of which came from the private sector, offset by 24,000 government job losses.
There were a number of revisions - all upward - to September and August data. September non-farm private payrolls, originally pegged at 137,000 job gains, was revised to 191,000. August, originally reported at a flat zero, was revised for a second time, adding in another 57,000 job gain, following last month's 47,000 upward revision, making August a much better month for employment - if one is inclined to believe government data, of which everyone is not - at a net jobs gain of 107,000.
Disappointing results at the outset sent stocks to their lows of the day in early trading, but as traders digested the data, found some reason for optimism, mostly in the revisions, and, though October's gains were not enough to keep pace with natural labor force growth (roughly 125,000 a month is needed), another positive month, on top of other positive economic data, was enough to erase those losses as the session wore on.
Catching up on other data releases, third quarter productivity increased by an estimated 3.1% after two consecutive quarterly declines.
Factory orders increased by 0.3% in October, on expectations of -0.5%, and the ISM services index inched lower, to 52.9, from 53.0 in September.
The official unemployment rate was pegged at 9.0, down from 9.1 in September, though most of the decline was due to job seekers falling off unemployment roles rather than finding new employment.
Another factor in the calculation of the overall strength or weakness of the US labor market comes in the form of the BLS' notorious birth/death adjustment, which measures the number of businesses closing and shedding jobs (death) and new business start-ups adding jobs (birth). According to this arcane, rather sloppy assessment, the BLS concludes that 103,000 more jobs were created in October by new businesses than were destroyed by business closures. In other words, almost all of the private sector job gains in October were statistically generated, which is why there is some doubt to the veracity and reliability of government statistics.
In Cannes, France, leaders of the G20 nations concluded a meeting without offering any new IMF funds to help Europe deal with its lengthy debt crisis. The fact that the member nations effectively told Europe to "fix it yourself" was less of a surprise than the IMF putting Italy under monitoring of its pension, privatization and labor reforms, long overdue.
That the leading economic powers of the world would defer to next year a decision on whether Europe needed additional help could be viewed as a positive development, especially after the referendum in Greece on that country's bailout money was effectively shut down on Thursday.
For the week, the Dow lost 248 points, the NASDAQ shed 51 points and the S&P dropped 32 points.
Dow 11,983.24, -61.23 (0.51%)
NASDAQ 2,686.15, -11.82 (0.44%)
S&P 500 1,253.23, -7.92 (0.63%)
NYSE Composite 7,552.23, -52.91 (0.70%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,959,105,000.00
NYSE Volume 3,947,110,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2093-2430
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 73-59
WTI crude oil: 94.43, +0.17
Gold: 1,756.10, -9.00
Silver: 34.08, -0.41
The week included two rather large down days followed by a pair of higher sessions and Friday's slight sell-off. The Labor Department reported that the US gained 80,000 jobs in its monthly non-farm payroll release, 104,000 of which came from the private sector, offset by 24,000 government job losses.
There were a number of revisions - all upward - to September and August data. September non-farm private payrolls, originally pegged at 137,000 job gains, was revised to 191,000. August, originally reported at a flat zero, was revised for a second time, adding in another 57,000 job gain, following last month's 47,000 upward revision, making August a much better month for employment - if one is inclined to believe government data, of which everyone is not - at a net jobs gain of 107,000.
Disappointing results at the outset sent stocks to their lows of the day in early trading, but as traders digested the data, found some reason for optimism, mostly in the revisions, and, though October's gains were not enough to keep pace with natural labor force growth (roughly 125,000 a month is needed), another positive month, on top of other positive economic data, was enough to erase those losses as the session wore on.
Catching up on other data releases, third quarter productivity increased by an estimated 3.1% after two consecutive quarterly declines.
Factory orders increased by 0.3% in October, on expectations of -0.5%, and the ISM services index inched lower, to 52.9, from 53.0 in September.
The official unemployment rate was pegged at 9.0, down from 9.1 in September, though most of the decline was due to job seekers falling off unemployment roles rather than finding new employment.
Another factor in the calculation of the overall strength or weakness of the US labor market comes in the form of the BLS' notorious birth/death adjustment, which measures the number of businesses closing and shedding jobs (death) and new business start-ups adding jobs (birth). According to this arcane, rather sloppy assessment, the BLS concludes that 103,000 more jobs were created in October by new businesses than were destroyed by business closures. In other words, almost all of the private sector job gains in October were statistically generated, which is why there is some doubt to the veracity and reliability of government statistics.
In Cannes, France, leaders of the G20 nations concluded a meeting without offering any new IMF funds to help Europe deal with its lengthy debt crisis. The fact that the member nations effectively told Europe to "fix it yourself" was less of a surprise than the IMF putting Italy under monitoring of its pension, privatization and labor reforms, long overdue.
That the leading economic powers of the world would defer to next year a decision on whether Europe needed additional help could be viewed as a positive development, especially after the referendum in Greece on that country's bailout money was effectively shut down on Thursday.
For the week, the Dow lost 248 points, the NASDAQ shed 51 points and the S&P dropped 32 points.
Dow 11,983.24, -61.23 (0.51%)
NASDAQ 2,686.15, -11.82 (0.44%)
S&P 500 1,253.23, -7.92 (0.63%)
NYSE Composite 7,552.23, -52.91 (0.70%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,959,105,000.00
NYSE Volume 3,947,110,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2093-2430
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 73-59
WTI crude oil: 94.43, +0.17
Gold: 1,756.10, -9.00
Silver: 34.08, -0.41
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