Stocks Split As NASDAQ Soars; Jobs Report Disappoints

Stocks shrugged off a slow start on Thursday after Wednesday's sluggish session and finished split for the second straight day, with the NASDAQ and S&P posting gains while the Dow and NYSE Composite were held to small losses.

With the US congress mostly out of town for the month and earnings season winding down, the market is prone to swings in either direction at the slightest rumor or data dump.

The Dow has fallen back into the trading range that was prevalent after the February and March drop-off, while the NASDAQ gravitates near recent record closes.

The big news for Friday is the July non-farm payroll report from the BLS. Analysts were expecting 191,000 new jobs per the data, but had to settle for 157,000, well below the estimate. The unemployment rate fell one tenth of a percent to 3.9%.

Released at 8:30 am EDT, the jobs report comes as a disappointment for the bullish case. Stock futures had been strong and trending higher until the release, but fell sharply leading into the opening bell.

Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
8/1/18	25,333.82	-81.37	-81.37
8/2/18	25,326.16	-7.66	-89.03

At the Close, Thursday, August 2, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,326.16, -7.66 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 7,802.69, +95.40 (+1.24%)
S&P 500: 2,827.22, +13.86 (+0.49%)
NYSE Composite: 12,898.07, -4.32 (-0.03%)

Weekend Wrap: Stocks Celebrate The 4th With Solid Gains

Stocks bubbled up after the BLS reported June job gains of 213,000 in the non-farm payroll report, though the official unemployment rate rose to four percent as more people entered the workforce.

The increase, being more than the expected 195,000, was a positive spur to trading instincts and helped end one of the better weeks of the year, with all four major indices posting gains for the day and the week.

Fears of an extended trade war with China were put aside for the time being. With the nation basking in the glow of an Independence Day week, only one down day was recorded, that being Tuesday's shortened session, which seemed more an adjustment to price levels rather than a trend-starting event.

Earnings reports for the second quarter will soon be the talk of the town and with that narrative taking precedence, there's a very good chance that stocks may see some solid support for the rest of the month.

The Dow is already ahead for July, despite still being more than 2000 points from the January all-time highs. With trading volumes down, it won't take much tome markets and the mood has shifted to a summery, feeling-good groove.

Bonds being moribund, stocks will bear some near term interest. The longer term still appears shaky or shady on a fundamental basis.

Dow Jones Industrial Average July Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
7/2/18	24,307.18	+35.77	+35.77
7/3/18	24,174.82	-132.36	-96.59
7/5/18	24,345.44	+181.92	+85.33
7/6/18	24,456.48	+99.74	+185.07

At the Close, Friday, July 6, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,456.48, +99.74 (+0.41%)
NASDAQ: 7,688.39, +101.96 (+1.34%)
S&P 500: 2,759.82, +23.21 (+0.85%)
NYSE Composite: 12,664.88, +79.67 (+0.63%)

For the Week:
Dow: +185.07 (+0.76%)
NASDAQ: +178.08 (+2.37%)
S&P 500: +41.45 (+1.52%)
NYSE Composite: +160.63 (+1.28%)

Weekend Wrap: May Ends Dull, Jobs Data Sends Stocks Higher 1st of June

The see-sawing of the markets continued for another week ending in bifurcated manner, with the Dow and NYSE Composite suffering losses while the S&P and NASDAQ posted gains.

In particular, the Dow has seen 12 weeks with positive results, versus 10 weeks of losses, resulting in a relatively flat index, down a mere 84.01 points since the 2017 year-end close (December 29) of 24.719.22, the gains all made in January, when the Dow topped out at 26,616.71 on January 26. The losses were mostly confined to the correction in February and another poor showing in March. April and May both were positive for the Dow, though those small gains still leave the index nearly 2000 points below the all-time high.

Two stocks - Boeing (BA) and Apple (AAPL) have kept the Dow from sliding back into correction territory. Since April 30, Apple gained 15%, Boing added 23 points, or about seven percent, though both stocks have basically flatlined since mid-month.

On the holiday-shortened week, the Dow recorded losses on Tuesday and Thursday (May 31), and gains on Wednesday and Friday (June 1), the latter upswing largely attributable to the better-than-expected June non-farm payroll release, getting the new month off to a flying start.

As has been evident since the February and March selloffs, this has become a trader's market, with individual stocks and sectors favored over pure index plays. All of the major averages have gravitated around their respective 50 and 200-day moving averages, the divergences seldom taking any of them far above or below those critical lines of support and/or resistance.

With summer coming on fast, volume continues to wither away, with select stocks getting the bulk of the trading action. Bullish deniers of the Dow Theory change from April will be hard-pressed to make much of a case for buying stocks during the hot weather, as the Dow's all-time high fades farther and farther away.

Dow Jones Industrial Average June Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
6/1/18	24,635.21	+219.37	+219.37

At the Close, Friday, June 1, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,635.21, +219.37 (+0.90%)
NASDAQ: 7,554.33, +112.21 (+1.51%)
S&P 500: 2,734.62, +29.35 (+1.08%)
NYSE Composite: 12,620.83, +93.69 (+0.75%)

For the Week:
Dow: -117.48 (-0.48%)
NASDAQ: +120.48 (+1.62%)
S&P 500: +13.29 (+0.49%)
NYSE Composite: -14.12 (-0.11%)

Going Nowhere Fast: Stock Churning a Wall Street Tool; Buy the Dip, Sell the Rip

Denial is NOT a river in Egypt, but, those who wish to traverse their world wearing blinders, colored glasses or even virtual reality goggles have been observed in the general vicinity of Wall and Broad Streets in lower Manhattan and their numbers are growing.

Stocks staged a strong dead cat bounce rally after three straight days of losses, the largest being Tuesday's nearly 400-point loss on the Dow Industrials that had the world shaking on stories of disunity and anti-EU behavior coming out of Italy.

Of course, in the United States, Italy, despite being the world's ninth largest economy (hard to imagine that) is taken as something of an outlier, as in "not our problem," so stocks were sent skyward by idle speculators, offsetting the mechanical smart money distribution that has been a feature of the markets since late January.

Just in case the recovery narrative is not taken seriously, the stock jockeys still have plenty of equities to alternatively pump, dump or hold, depending on the circumstance of the day. The bulls are attempting to extend the long bull market to ten years when in fact it ended - almost to the day - at nine years and one month, on April 9, 2018.

Since then, the Dow (and largely the other major averages) have travelled in a pretty tight range. On April 9, the Dow closed at 23,979.10, going as low since then to 23,924.98 (May 2) and as high as 25,013.29 (May 21). That 1088 point range (roughly 4%) has persisted for some seven weeks and shows no sign of breaking out anytime soon.

With May looking like a good bet to produce positive returns in the range of 300-650 points (Thursday is the final trading day of the month), the players in this Broadway-stlyed farce should be patting each others backs vigorously for a job well done, the losses of February and March now overshadowed by the plus signs for April and May.

All the bad stuff - like Wednesday's lowered first quarter GDP estimate to 2.2% from 2.3% or the weak ADP payroll report (178,000 May jobs) is, according to the churning crowd, behind us and it's roses and unicorns from here to eternity.

Naturally, anyone with a handful of functioning brain cells knows that the government and media are conspiring to deliver all manner of propaganda - from Russian collusion and election interference to "tight" employment conditions when 93 million Americans do not work for a living - so any mention of good times should probably not be taken too seriously.

The truth is somewhere in between what the government and media spoon-feed and wha tone sees and hears with one's own eyes and ears. The economy isn't great, nor is it about to collapse, though, admittedly, it's been 10 years since the last recession, so "bad times" are pretty much overdue. Unless one is conditioned to a Pavlovian reaction to headlines, such as the algorithms that drive market activity are, seeing the markets bouncing in a tight range should be cause for at least some caution, especially since that range is well below the last market high (26,616.71, Jan. 26).

The last trading day of the month shouldn't be anything notable as far as volatility is concerned, unless May's non-farm payroll numbers (due out Friday, June 1) are not pleasant and leaked. Even then, the rangebound Dow will remain.

And the deniers of a bear market will still be in denial.

Dow Jones Industrial Average May Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
5/1/18	24,099.05	-64.10	-64.10
5/2/18	23,924.98	-174.07	-238.17
5/3/18	23,930.15	+5.17	-233.00
5/4/18	24,262.51	+332.36	+99.36
5/7/18	24,357.32	+94.81	+194.17
5/8/18	24,360.21	+2.89	+197.06
5/9/18	24,542.54	+182.33	+379.39
5/10/18	24,739.53	+196.99	+576.38
5/11/18	24,831.17	+91.64	+668.02
5/14/18	24,899.41	+68.24	+736.26
5/15/18	24,706.41	-193.00	+543.26
5/16/18	24,768.93	+62.52	+605.78
5/17/18	24,713.98	-54.95	+550.73
5/18/18	24,715.09	+1.11	+551.84
5/21/18	25,013.29	+298.20	+850.04
5/22/18	24,834.41	-178.88	+671.16
5/23/18	24,886.81	+52.40	+723.56
5/24/18	24,811.76	-75.05	+648.51
5/25/18	24,753.09	-58.67	+589.84
5/29/18	24,361.45	-391.64	+198.20
5/30/18	24,667.78	+306.33	+504.53

At the Close, Wednesday, May 30, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,667.78, +306.33 (+1.26%)
NASDAQ: 7,462.45, +65.86 (+0.89%)
S&P 500: 2,724.01, +34.15 (+1.27%)
NYSE Composite: 12,625.87, +183.18 (+1.47%)

Trade War Madness Continues As Non-Farm Payrolls Slip

Stocks gained again on Thursday as fears of a widespread trade war between the United States and China eased a bit, though the rhetoric has become thicker and more belligerent as the saga unfolds.

The escalation of tariff-building between the world's two largest economies appears to be evolving into a major spat, keeping traders on Wall Street jumping, though not out of windows, yet.

Whatever is going down, it's going to continue and no amount of speculation is going to ease the volatility in stocks.

Traders' fears will not be assuaged on Friday morning by the non-farm payroll report for March, which showed job gains of only 103,000, far below estimates of 185,000.

Dow Jones Industrial Average April Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
4/2/18	23,644.19	-458.92	-458.92
4/3/18	24,033.36	+389.17	-69.75
4/4/18	24,264.30	+230.94	+161.19
4/5/18	24,505.22	+240.92	+402.11

At the Close, Thursday, April 5, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,505.22, +240.92 (+0.99%)
NASDAQ: 7,076.55, +34.44 (+0.49%)
S&P 500: 2,662.84, +18.15 (+0.69%)
NYSE Composite: 12,571.94, +105.49 (+0.85%)

Friday's Moonshot Sends Stocks to Positive for March, Year-to-Date

After losing nearly 500 points the first two trading days of March, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded to positive for the month - and the year - with gains every day excepting Wednesday, when the Dow shed another 82 points. However, the big days occurred on Monday, with a gain of 336 points, and Friday, when the Dow and other major averages put the dismal days of February and March mostly behind them, as the industrials skyrocketed 440 points.

Amazingly, all of this optimism came in spite of endless growling over President Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs and synchronized shouting - from the halls of congress and the canyons of lower Manhattan - about an impending trade war.

Friday's burst higher was credited largely to the impressive February non-farm payroll report, which was a blockbuster, showing 313,000 new jobs created and a 4.1% unemployment rate in the shortest and coldest month of the year, numbers nobody could claim as anything other than positive, the mere hint of good news now capable of sending the stock market back to dizzying, overvalued heights.

Indeed, the NASDAQ closed at an all-time high, though the other indices still have a way to go to exceed the marks set on January 26, though another week like this one, with gains of more than 2.8% on each of the individual indices, would smash the old records on the S&P 500, and get the Dow and NYSE Composite within spitting distance.

How likely that is to happen is a matter of some conjecture, as the FOMC meets March 20 and 21, and is expected to raise the federal funds rate another 25 basis points. This is seen as a headwind to continued expansion, but, with seven days to trade up to the release of the new "policy," the day-trading demons of the financial world will have plenty of time to ramp up and then deflate, choosing either to sell the news or buy into the continuing expansion narrative, even as the bull market passed the nine-year mark on Friday.

There's been no absence of volatility or fluctuation to start off 2018, with massive gains in January, huge losses in February, and possibly an evening out in March. To those who believe the bull is weary, standing on only two legs, the word is "so what," with the punditry claiming - rightly so - that bear markets only last, on average, 12-14 months. What they do not want to discuss is the depth of those bear markets, nor the time taken to get back the losses incurred.

The past two bears, in 2000-2001 and 2007-2009, are good cases in point, using the Dow as the barometer, even though, in the case of the 2000 crash, it was the NASDAQ that collapsed more than anything, which could again be the case should history repeat.

On December 1, 1999, the Dow closed at 11,497.12, and bottomed at 7,591.93 on September 1, 2002, making the duration of the bear market a full 34 months, or nearly three years. It wasn't until September of 2006 that the index surpassed the old high (11,679.07), a period of nearly seven years from peak to peak, a period which seemed like eternity for some. Of course, the bull had been underway since the bottom in '02, and finally apexed in October of '07, blowing through 14,000 before beginning to pull back. (For the record, it took the NASDAQ 13 years to exceed it's pre-crash 2000 highs.)

The ensuing collapse fell just short of catastrophic calamity, as the housing market went bust, along with its many derivative trades, taking all of corporate America down for the count, with the Dow closing at 6,547.05 on March 9, 2009, a date which could arguably be called the end of the '07-09 bear market (16 months) and the beginning of the Fed-inspired bull run to the present, now 114 months old, the second-longest expansion in market history, with gains from the bottom to the recent peak quadrupling the investment, truly an inspiring, incredible, nearly inexplicable accomplishment.

The average of the last two bear markets supplies a possible scenario. If the bear market began in February (which we humans will only know at some later date), the bear would run through March of 2020, or 25 months, the average length of the last two bear markets. It's at least worth consideration, because two years of losses might actually be enough time to clear the decks of much of the excess debt and mal-investment (and there's been lots of it) of the past nine years. Anything longer would be mostly unbearable, not only to Wall Street, but to the average Jane and Joe Americans, who have suffered enough at the start of this century. Likewise, anything shorter would look like another band-aid for the corrupt banking and political system of cronyism and back-handedness toward the taxpaying public.

The mammoth gains over the past nine years are exactly why one should give pause and contemplation to the continuance of the bull market. In market terms, one would be buying at the highs if one would plunge in today, and why would anybody who saw $100,000 turn into $400,000, or a million into four million, even consider adding to positions?

Perhaps the view that President Trump will single-handedly usher in a era of increased prosperity and profit with his blustering "Make America Great Again" push can partially explain any euphoria surrounding the currency of the stock market and it's possible that he might be on the right track, even though he faces many hurdles and obstacles, not the least of which stem from his own party, people in his own administration, opponents on the Democrat side of the aisle and skeptics on Wall Street.

But, it's been proven time and again, Wall Street will play along with Washington if it serves their interest, which is, succinctly, more profits, and higher stock prices. This pits the speculators, gamblers, and traders of the world against the entrenched government "deep state," which cannot stomach Mr. Trump and is prepared to do anything within its power to besmirch and/or impeach him, including sending the stock market into a tailspin, making fundamental analysis of stocks, bonds, and just about any other investment vehicle, not only an exercise in economics, but in politics, as well.

Economic data has shown a mixed, slightly positive picture; politicians are hell=bent on discrediting the president, and, behind it all, an ocean of debt created by the Fed and their cohort central banks needs to be unwound, brought under control, and eventually retired, an exercise only the Fed has recently begun, with the ECB and Bank of Japan too to follow. The wild card is China, where the PBOC has created literal cities built on nothing but debt and speculation.

All that makes for one tricky trade.

Dow Jones Industrial Average March Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
3/1/18	24,608.98	-420.22	-420.22
3/2/18	24,538.06	-70.92	-491.14
3/5/18	24,874.76	+336.70	-154.44
3/6/18	24,884.12	+9.36	-145.08
3/7/18	24,801.36	-82.76	-227.84
3/8/18	24,895.21	+93.85	-133.99
3/9/18	25,335.74	+440.53	+306.54

At the Close, Friday, March 9, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,335.74, +440.53 (+1.77%)
NASDAQ: 7,560.81, +132.86 (+1.79%)
S&P 500: 2,786.57, +47.60 (+1.74%)
NYSE Composite: 12,918.82, +173.81 (+1.36%)

For the Week:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: +797.68 (+3.25%)
NASDAQ: +302.94 (+4.17%)
S&P 500: +95.32 (+3.54%)
NYSE Composite: +360.83 (+2.87%)

Stocks Steady As Trump Softens Steel, Aluminum Tariffs

As seen through the eyes of Wall Street computer algorithms, President Trump's 25% tariff on steel imports and 10% on aluminum aren't so bad after all.

Stocks ended the day in the green, but it was a bumpy ride getting there, with most of the gains coming in the final half-hour of trading, during and after Trump's announcement.

In realistic analysis, Thursday's trading amounted to less than nothing, focused so heavily upon the tariff issue, as if that were all that mattered. Tomorrow's non-farm payroll report for January, released at 8:30 am, prior to the opening bell, will likely impact markets more decidedly.

Stocks, with the Dow Jones Average in particular, have made essentially no progress since February 14, when it closed at 24,893.49. There's still a mountain to climb to get back to all-time highs from January 26 (26,616.71). The Dow remains in the red for March.

Elsewhere, oil closed just a hair above $60/barrel, at $60.33, a multi-week low, gold was down to $1322.50 per ounce, while silver held steady at $16.50 the ounce. Bonds continued to hold firm, with the 10-year-note finishing with a yield of 2.87%.

Dow Jones Industrial Average March Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
3/1/18	24,608.98	-420.22	-420.22
3/2/18	24,538.06	-70.92	-491.14
3/5/18	24,874.76	+336.70	-154.44
3/6/18	24,884.12	+9.36	-145.08
3/7/18	24,801.36	-82.76	-227.84
3/8/18	24,895.21	+93.85	-133.99

At the Close, Thursday, March 8, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,895.21, +93.85 (+0.38%)
NASDAQ: 7,427.95, +31.30 (+0.42%)
S&P 500: 2,738.97, +12.17 (+0.45%)
NYSE Composite: 12,745.01, +38.00 (+0.30%)

Markets Turn Ugly As Bond Yields Soar in Ground Hog Day Massacre

Even as January's non-farm payroll report painted a rosy employment picture, adding 200,000 jobs for the month, the 10-year note crested over the 2.80% level on Friday, sending stocks into as vicious tailspin in a mid-winter crash.

The nearly 666-point decline on the Dow was the sixth largest one-day point drop in market history, though in percentage terms was the mildest of the top ten, all of which have occurred in the 21st century.

The fact that all of the major point losses happened since 2000 is made obvious by the enormity of the index, still standing at more then 25,000, an epochal figure in market terms. Notably, the Dow Jones Industrial Average first passed the 10,000 mark in 1999, amid the notorious dotcom boom, prior to the dotcom bust, which took a full three-and-a-half years to fully play out.

Friday's drop was the largest since a 634.76-point loss on August 8, 2011 which sent the blue chips down 5.55%, to 10,809.85. Noting the relative percentage puniness of the Ground Hog Day Massacre, it may be wise to expect larger point and percentage losses in the near to mid-range future (three months to one year).

While it may be simplistic to point to the gaudy valuations placed on equities in the current market dynamic, it is nonetheless a significant factor in the current shaky environment and as good a reason to sell out of stocks as any, though the other major catalyst - rising bond yields - provides a more granular perspective.

The long end of the Treasury yield curve was extended on Friday as the 30-year bond smashed through the psychological 3.00% barrier, signaling to long-term investors that the aging bull market in stocks (and bonds) may be coming to a quick conclusion.

Bull and bear markets do not begin nor end in vacuums, which is why this most recent pullback should be regarded as a change of tone in market functioning. Nothing gos on forever, and empirical data suggests that while stocks have enjoyed salad days for years, the general economy and the welfare of millions of Americans has been less than a full meal.

It's easy to look at macro data and conclude that all is well and central banks have the markets and global economies under control, but sometimes one needs to look around and actually see the mountains of debt, stock buybacks, and central bank meddling which have fueled the gigantic recovery and historic stock gains.

Money is undoubtably becoming tighter and the labor market - according to government figures - is straining at full employment, but wages gains have not nearly kept pace with either inflation or taxes for at least the past 15 years. A breaking point is coming, wherein multi-national corporate behemoths are going to have to sacrifice the massive salaries bestowed upon top executives in exchange for pay increases for Mr. and Mrs. America.

With the Federal Reserve ready to hike the federal funds rate another 25 basis points at their upcoming March FOMC rate policy meeting, the world's central bank seeks to create a buffer against an almost certain recession, one which they, by their own reckless actions, will have caused.

If stock declines continue through February, expect the Fed to pause on their quest to raise rates and unload debt at the same time. The outward absurdity of their position is dangerous to the welfare of not only business entities, but individuals and governments as well.

What may have been the most telling circumstance from Friday's demolition of all asset classes, gold and silver also took precipitous drops, action which harkens back to the tumultuous days of the fall of 2008, when precious metals were slammed along with stocks. Notably, it was the metals which recovered first, but under the current conditions of mad money mindlessness, the shiny stuff may be suppressed even further, simply because central banks don't appreciate competition for their various fake currencies by real money.

The era of easy money is ending.

Real assets will endure.

At the Close, Friday, February 2, 2018:
Dow: 25,520.96, -665.75 (-2.54%)
NASDAQ: 7,240.95, -144.92 (-1.96%)
S&P 500: 2,762.13, -59.85 (-2.12%)
NYSE Composite: 13,085.35, -296.62 (-2.22%)

For the Week:
Dow: -1095.75 (-4.12)
NASDAQ: -264.83 (-3.53%)
S&P 500: -110.74 (-3.85%)
NYSE Composite: -551.67 (-4.05%)

Stocks Soar Through January; Big Week Upcoming

Stocks staged their best cumulative effort of the new year, as January equity returns continued to explode through the final full week of trading in the United States.

Making the gains all the more impressive is the fact that the month has seen only 18 out of a possible 20 trading days, due to the New Year and MLK holidays falling on Mondays. Three more sessions to start the new week will conclude January trading.

Stocks have been the major story of the year thus far, along with the continued decline of the US dollar against other major currencies, especially the Yen, Euro and British Pound.

President Donald J. Trump returned from Davos over the weekend, preparing for his first State of the Unions address to congress on Tuesday night.

Also of note this week is the FOMC policy rate meeting of the Federal Reserve. While the Fed is not expected to raise key interest rates at this meeting, there's general impetus for a planned rate hike at the March meeting. The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, January 30 and 31. The March meeting is March 20-21.

The week concludes with the January Non-farm Payroll release by the BLS on Friday, Feb. 2. The data release includes publication changes related to the annual sample review and the conversion to NAICS 2017.. Expectations will be high, given the explosive nature of the stock market and recent touting of strong economic growth by President Trump.

At the Close, Friday, January 26, 2018:
Dow: 26,616.71, +223.92 (+0.85%)
NASDAQ: 7,505.77, +94.61 (+1.28%)
S&P 500: 2,872.87, +33.62 (+1.18%)
NYSE Composite: 13,637.02, +124.36 (+0.92%)

For the Week:
Dow: +544.99 (+2.09%)
NASDAQ: +169.39 (+2.31%)
S&P 500: +62.57 (+2.23%)
NYSE Composite: +252.56 (+1.89%)

Huge Miss on December Non-Farm Payrolls Won't Trigger Sell the News Event

Stocks ripped higher on Thursday on pure hope and fumes, in anticipation of Friday's BLS release of December non-farm payroll data.

As mentioned in yesterday's post, the market has set itself up for a "sell the news" event, having already bought the rumor in the form of an incredible 250,000 December private jobs gain from ADP.

Being a case of which numbers should be trusted, investors will probably accept the BLS, being that it is the "official" number, despite the wild swings, methodology and revisions for which the data set is so famous.

On Friday morning, the BLS announced a gain of a mere 148,000 net new jobs in December, on expectations of 190,000, the lowest print since July 2017. [full release here]

The unemployment rate remained moored at 4.1%, a rather humorous figure, given that the BLS counts part-time jobs and working more than one day a week as a "job."

As of this writing, roughly 15 minutes prior to the market open, stock futures are higher, but well off the levels seen earlier this morning.

The expectation for stocks to sell off throughout the session, given that valuations have been stretched to unsustainable levels, will likely not materialize since prognosis is as much the stuff of smoke and mirrors as the algo-driven market itself.

At the Close, Thursday, January 4, 2018:
Dow: 25,075.13, +152.45 (+0.61%)
NASDAQ: 7,077.91, +12.38 (+0.18%)
S&P 500: 2,723.99, +10.93 (+0.40%)
NYSE Composite: 13,028.46, +71.18 (+0.55%)

Caution Thrown To (Bitter Cold) Wind, As Investors Ignore Tech and Weather Threats

Across the board gains were the order de jour on the second day of trading in the new year.

As on Tuesday, the NASDAQ outpaced the other major averages, continuing its meteoric rise beyond the 7,000 mark with tech stocks leading the way despite an admission from Intel (INTC) that their chips have a serious flaw, affecting nearly all chips made by the company over the past ten years.

The world's largest chipmaker was not immediately taken to the woodshed and whipped, though shares of the company were down more than three percent and are off another one-and-a-half percent in pre-market trading on Thursday.

Rival chipmaker, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), was the main beneficiary of the Intel news, its stock advancing more than five percent on the day, though it appeared that AMD chips are also vulnerable, though not to the same extent nor by the same exploits as Intel chips.

While the immediate impact may be slim, the long-term repercussions of this revelation may be significant. The world's major chip manufacturers may be facing a black swan event once hackers devise attacks that could legitimately effect computers and servers worldwide, for years.

Traders were not on the defensive, however, as the lure of early gains overwhelmed any concerns for troubles ahead, such as the massive snowstorm and bitter cold that is expected to affect most of the Northeast in days ahead. The storm - being called a Bomb Cyclone - is primarily focused off the Eastern coast of mainland North America, though New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts were making preparations for a major winter weather event which has already bettered Southern cities such as Charleston, SC, and Savannah, GA.

The apparent complacency of equity speculators is somewhat confounding, given the potential for severe disruptions from weather and technology in coming days.

On the other end of the asset spectrum, precious metals responded to a slight rise in the dollar index, blunting a strong run for gold and silver over the past three weeks, though the selling seemed to be transitory, with the metals recovering early on Thursday morning as the dollar fell to fresh lows (91.933).

On Thursday morning, prior to the opening bell on Wall Street, ADP private payroll data for December showed a massive 250,000 job gain for the final month of 2017. While the AMD numbers are preliminary and subject to revision, they are sending a strong signal in advance of Friday's BLS non-farm payroll dataset for December.

With caution being thrown largely to the (bitterly cold) wind, Friday and/or Monday could be a day of "selling the news," or, as has been the case for the past nine years, the stock market rally will not be impeded by facts nor insinuations of negativity.

At the Close, Wednesday, January 3, 2018:
Dow: 24,922.68, +98.67 (+0.40%)
NASDAQ: 7,065.53, +58.63 (+0.84%)
S&P 500: 2,713.06, +17.25 (+0.64%)
NYSE Composite: 12,957.28, +54.55 (+0.42%)

Stocks Bid as Congress Avoids Government Shutdown; NFP Grows by 228,000

On Thursday, with the House and Senate agreeing to keep the federal government open for business via a two-week continuing resolution, investors took that relief as reason to rally stocks, erasing some of the losses of the previous week.

As Friday morning advanced toward the opening bell, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released their most recent data on employment in the November non-farm payroll (NFP) report.

Coming in better-than-expected, the department reported an increase of 228,000 net new jobs in the month of November, adding more evidence that the economy, under the guidance of President Donald J. Trump, continues to expand. The unemployment rate remained at decades-low, 4.1%.

Futures pointed to a strong positive open for Friday's week-ending session.

At the Close, Thursday, December 7, 2017:
Dow: 24,211.48, +70.57 (+0.29%)
NASDAQ: 6,812.84, +36.47 (+0.54%)
S&P 500: 2,636.98, +7.71 (+0.29%)
NYSE Composite: 12,568.98, +36.55 (+0.29%)

Stocks Continue to Stall While Crypto Goes Wild; Silver Down for 2017

Stocks continued to plan through the early days of December, giving up early gains to close mixed to down on the day.

Overnight, Bitcoin careened through $13,000, $14,000, and $15,000 per coin to set all-time highs in an unprecedented move.

While the cryptocurrencies may have Wall Street and central banks on the ropes, it hasn't presented the chief manipulators of precious metals from pounding down gold and silver, the latter of which dropped below $16 per ounce, leaving it down for the year.

Bonds were bid, dropping yields, though the curve remained stubbornly flat. With the FOMC meeting less than a week ahead, declining bond yields may give the Fed reason to pause on their planned federal funds rate increase.

Meanwhile, Washington, DC is working out an emergency continuing resolution, designed to keep the government running for at least a few more weeks.

Amid all the political and monetary madness, stocks remain resilient, though the recent lag may be a sign that gains for the year may be already locked in to many portfolios.

Other than Bitcoin, which has entered either a bubble or mania stage, and precious metals, which are a screaming buy, there doesn't seem to be much to tantalize the usual stock purchasers. Valuations have been stretched, and, with Novemebr non-farm payroll data due out Friday morning, Thursday is setting up to be another day of divestiture and consolidation.

At the Close, Wednesday, December 6, 2017:
Dow: 24,140.91, -39.73 (-0.16%)
NASDAQ: 6,776.38, +14.16 (+0.21%)
S&P 500: 2,629.27, -0.30 (-0.01%)
NYSE Composite: 12,532.43, -34.73 (-0.28%)

Payroll Loss Means Nothing As Stocks Recover to Close Friday Flat

Weekend Wrap: Even a horrible September jobs report couldn't slow down the runaway freight train that is the US stock market.

After the BLS reported on Friday a net loss of 33,000 jobs in the month, stocks were lower for most of the session, though investors shrugged off the data as the result of hurricane that hit Texas and Florida and continued to buy as the afternoon wore towards the closing bell.

The late-day surge left the markets mostly flat for the session, with the NASDAQ the only major index to post a gain.

For the week, however, stocks put in one of their best performances of the year, led by the Dow Industrials, which ramped up 1.65%. The laggard was the broad-based NYSE Composite, which posted a gain of just under one percent.

The non-farm payroll report for September was the first since 2010 to show a loss in employment. Despite the three-month average declining sharply to 91,000 from 172,000, stocks were still the place to be.

As stated previously here at Money Daily many times, there is nothing to impede stocks from careening higher for what looks to be the remainder of 2017. with the Fed on hold until December conceding rate increases, and the Bank of Japan and the ECB buying stocks with both fists, passive investors need do nothing besides sitting back and waiting for their quarterly statements.

Making money has never been so easy.

At the Close, Friday, October 6, 2017:
Dow: 22,773.67, -1.72 (-0.01%)
NASDAQ: 6,590.18, +4.82 (+0.07%)
S&P 500: 2,549.33, -2.74 (-0.11%)
NYSE Composite: 12,317.69, -21.24 (-0.17%)

For the Week:
Dow: +368.58 (+1.65%)
NASDAQ: +94.22 (+1.45%)
S&P 500: +29.97 (+1.15%)
NYSE Composite: +108.53 (+0.89%)

With September Non-Farm Payroll Data On Deck, Stocks Post Record Highs

Even though ADP reported the weakest jobs numbers in 11 months Wednesday, investors shrugged off the data and limped higher, with all major indices closing at fresh all-time highs.

ADP private employment figures for September showed a gain of 135,000 jobs, with the most damage done to firms with less than 20 employees, which registered a loss of 11,000 jobs. The firm, which tracks private payrolls, was quick to point out that hurricanes Harvey and Irma accounted for 50-60,000 fewer jobs created, noting that many mom-and-pop-like outfits were forced to close during and after the disasters that covered much of Florida and the Houston metropolitan area.

Without doing the requisite math, October's figures are likely to be higher by an order of magnitude, unless Mother Nature unleashes more of her wrath on America's southern states.

The data which ADP provides usually presages the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Non-farm Payroll release, due out on Friday, October 6.

Wall Street will likely remain unfazed with a low NFP number, taking the easy way out by blaming storms and natural disasters for the poor showing.

Life goes on, new jobs or not.

At the Close, Wednesday, October 4, 2017:
Dow: 22,661.64, +19.97 (+0.09%)
NASDAQ: 6,534.63, +2.91 (+0.04%)
S&P 500: 2,537.74, +3.16 (+0.12%)
NYSE Composite: 12,304.67, +1.79 (+0.01%)

Bonds Don't Lie As Risk Rears Ugly Head At Stocks

Sooner or later, all good things come to an end, and it appears that the 101 month bull run in US equities is just about over.

All things considered, from global uncertainty (think North Korea, and immigration, currently) to underfunded pensions (about half of the states' public retirement funds) to the upcoming debate over the debt ceiling and nothing looks really positive about the American economy, the same one that has limped along at less than three percent annual growth for almost nine years.

Last Friday's miss on the non-farm payroll data certainly didn't help matters on Monday as once-giddy speculators were morose and confused, many seeking the safety of bonds.

While a somewhat ugly day for stocks, bonds were bid with gusto, the 10-year note getting so much action it hit its lowest yield since two days after Trump's election, crashing to 2.06%, on what turned out to be the best day for bond bulls since Brexit (June, 2016). It's fairly obvious by now that the benchmark 10-year will be yielding below two percent soon, the level it was occupying prior to the surprise presidential election of Donald J. Trump.

In an odd way, stock pickers may have an opening or two. Since bond yields are horrible, stocks, though vastly overvalued, may be worthwhile investments for those willing to take the risk. On the other hand, there may not be many stocks which are able to perform well through a prolonged recession, possible debt defaults around the world and a demographic nightmare that makes all other metrics pale by comparison.

Spoken of before in this space, the demographic dilemma cannot be understated. All of the developed nations are aging, starting with Japan and Germany, and older people simply do not spend as much or with as much frequency as younger folks. Aging populations are settled in their ways, move slowly (if at all) and are very conscious of their spending habits, many of them on fixed incomes.

That said, inflation is virtually impossible, pricing power for companies difficult if at all attainable. All that's left is financial engineering, cooking the books and keeping the creditors in the dark or off the doorstep.

Even the mighty Dow Industrials slipped again, for the ninth time in the last 20 sessions. The popular index is down more than 500 points over that span.

Precious metals also had a solid day, again, continuing the trend begun mid-August.

Stocks have crossed the rubicon.

At the Close, 9/5/17:
Dow: 21,753.31, -234.25 (-1.07%)
NASDAQ: 6,375.57, -59.76 (-0.93%)
S&P 500 2,457.85, -18.70 (-0.76%)
NYSE Composite: 11,827.15, -90.93 (-0.76%)

Was September 1st a Market Reality Check? Gold Hits One-Year High

On Friday, after it was announced that August non-farm payrolls had increased by a less-than-expected 156,000, stock futures ramped higher heading into the opening bell on Wall Street.

Stocks did indeed gain, on the twisted hope that a soft labor market would chill Fed ambitions to raise interest rates and/or begin to wind down their massive, $4 trillion balance sheet when the FOMC meets September 12 and 13.

Those were the thoughts of traders in the morning, but, when the NASDAQ fell briefly into the red mid-morning, sentiment seemed to take on a more sober tone, as the reality of a stuttering recovery over the past eight years - fueled primarily by massive infusions of freshly-created cash by central banks and historically-low interest rates - might actually be - rather than good news - bad news.

All of the major indices finished with gains, but they were hardly of the kind that one could take comfort in as the long Labor Day weekend commenced.

Rather, the afternoon session was mild, largely belonging to fixed assets, as precious metals traded briskly. Gold went into the weekend trading at a one-year high, $1320.40 the ounce, silver, while it didn't make any historic high marks, gains 16 cents, ending at $17.50, a mid-point range advantageous to speculation on both sides of the trade.

The 10-year note firmed up at a 2.15% yield and crude oil, in the aftermath of hurricane Harvey, regained its footing, trading higher in the afternoon to $47.35 per barrel.

Was this a wake-up call for equity traders and general market participants?

Doubtful. But, it is somewhat instructive to take into account that the second-longest bull market in history has been built on promises, fallacies, distortions, and the conjuring of more than $14 trillion worldwide.

Bull markets all end. And this one, 101 months old, is more likely to end sooner than later.

At the Close, 9/1/17:
Dow: 21,987.56, +39.46 (+0.18%)
NASDAQ: 6,435.33, +6.67 (+0.10%)
S&P 500: 2,476.55, +4.90 (+0.20%)
NYSE Composite: 11,918.08, +42.39 (+0.36%)

For the Week:
Dow: +173.89 (+0.80%)
NASDAQ: +169.69 (+2.71%)
S&P 500: +35.50 (+1.37%)
NYSE Composite: +106.05 (+0.90%)

Great News! August Jobs Numbers Miss; Stocks Aim For Moon Shot

Bad news is still good news on Wall Street.

According to the impeccable source of all financial excitement, Yahoo! News,

The August jobs report is out and it’s a miss.

The U.S. economy added 156,000 nonfarm payrolls in August while the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, according to the latest figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Economists were looking nonfarm payrolls to grow by 180,000 in August while the unemployment rate was expected to hold steady at 4.3% near a post-crisis low. The BLS noted in its report that Hurricane Harvey had “no [discernible] effect” on the employment data for August.

Wage growth was also a disappointment, with average hourly earnings rising 0.1% over the prior month and 2.5% over last year. Earnings were expected to rise 0.2% over the prior month and 2.6% over the prior year. A rise in wages is seen by economists as portending an uptick in inflation, which has disappointed this year.

The rest of the story is here.

After ten years of the most tepid "recovery" on record, and despite $14 trillion of magic money creation by the central banks of the developed countries (adding in China, it's more like $18 trillion), poor employment data is still greeted with smiles by stock jockeys, because it means the economy is not really recovering and the Fed and other globalist central banks cannot realistically raise interest rates.

That means the punch bowl will be refilled with easy credit and the bubbly stock market can advance to every higher levels of insanity.

Forget that the average P/E of S&P 500 stocks is four standard deviations above the norm, that government pension shortfalls threaten the retirement of millions of aging Americans. Forget that wages have been stagnant for 17 years running. Just buy more stocks and everything will turn out just fine.

It's madness. Nothing, absolutely nothing will change until the day comes when it all changes at once. But that day may still be years away because the central banks and government number crunchers will see to it that the veil is never removed from the eyes of ordinary people who will be taxed and regulated into the ether.

There are no jobs. Party on!

At the Close, 8/31/17:
Dow: 21,948.10, +55.67 (+0.25%)
NASDAQ: 6,428.66, +60.35 (+0.95%)
S&P 500: 2,471.65, +14.06 (+0.57%)
NYSE Composite: 11,875.69, +70.62 (+0.60%)

Indices Split Again, Dow Only Gainer; NFP Shows 209,000 July Jobs

The rally fizzled badly on Thursday, but the market may get a boost from strong jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which showed non-farm payrolls increasing by 209,000 in the month of July.

All the major index futures are showing plus signs prior to the opening bell on Wall Street. The official unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, matching the 16-year low set back in May.

With all this good news on the employment front, there seems to be nothing capable of holding back another rally on Wall Street to close out the week.

If all of this seems to be a trifle boring, it's because the Dow has now posted gains in each of the last eight sessions, rising from 21,500 to over 22,000 over that short span.

The other indices don't appear to share the enthusiasm for the Dow. The NASDAQ in particular has been down five of the last six sessions.

Perhaps this is just money moving from speculative tech stocks into solid dividend-paying stocks on the Dow, although Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Intel (INTC) are all components of the 30 Dow Jones Industrials.

At the Close, 8/3/17:
Dow: 22,026.10, +9.86 (0.04%)
NASDAQ: 6,340.34, -22.30 (-0.35%)
S&P 500: 2,472.16, -5.41 (-0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 11,956.52, -22.85 (-0.19%)

Dow Set To Rise Over 22,000; ADP Report Shows 178,000 July Jobs

For a change, all of the major indices moved in the same direction on the day. While the Dow set a new closing all-time high, it fell short of the 22,000 milestone, though the NYSE Composite squeaked by the 12,000 mark by a mere 0.02 points.

With earnings news continuing to come out in fairly rosy fashion, the latest from Apple (AAPL), reporting better-than-expected iPhone sales, revenue and earnings per share.

As August rolls along, there appear to be few impediments to further gains in stocks. Earnings reports will begin to slow to a trickle, but there is no FOMC meeting this month, and congress is likely to take at least two weeks off after wasting the first two weeks of the month posturing and posing over health care and/or tax reform.

It's unlikely that congress will accomplish anything of import, as their record of accomplishments since Donald Trump became president is shallow and thin.

Of some significance is Friday's release of July non-farm payroll numbers. Wednesday morning, ADP released their proprietary payroll data for the month, showing 178,000 new private sector jobs created in July. Expectations were for 185,000, after June disappointed with just 158,000 jobs created.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes its data on the first Friday of the month, at 8:30 am ET.

Whether the jobs data is good or bad may be immaterial, as the market has a tendency to take either without much pause. Just about everybody knows the economy is stuck in low gear, with the Fed and other central banks' backing and active in the markets.

22,000 on the Dow is a no-brainer. Unless war is launched against North Korea or some other great geo-political development occurs, nothing significant is likely to happen until congress reconvenes in September and attempts to craft a budget and hurdle the debt ceiling.

If there's ever been a time to break out the "all clear" foghorn, this could be it.

Still, it's advisable to keep close stops on positions because surprises routinely occur when complacency is high.

At the Close, 8/1/17:
Dow: 21,963.92, +72.80 (0.33%)
NASDAQ: 6,362.94, +14.81 (0.23%)
S&P 500: 2,476.35, +6.05 (0.24%)
NYSE Composite: 12,000.02, +32.35 (0.27%)