Cause and effect doesn't always work for markets, at least not in any recognizable fashion when it comes to the intricacies of the US stock exchanges.
There was little news to move markets on Wednesday, but, after a slow start, the speculators moved stocks up substantially on little else but positive momentum, caused by an absence of any overtly bad news, especially from Europe.
It's a little bit like whistling past the grave, these bouncy, out-of-the-blue rallies, because the US economy is pretty much stalled out, and corporate profits are slowing, as evidenced by lowered expectations this quarter.
Even though most companies are still beating their estimates, many have experienced quarter-to-quarter or year-over-year weakness and a slowing of their growth, which is not any good way to be investing for the long-term, but, most of the money being circulated through the markets is very, very short term.
Since money has to go somewhere and there's still plenty of it sloshing around, stocks still are the preferred vehicle of choice for the control crowd that moves markets and individual stocks. Bond yields are abysmally low, precious metals have stalled and commodities aren't for everyone, thus, stocks get bid up, especially two days before monthly options expiration.
Once this earnings season winds down - in another two weeks or so - the markets will be looking for a catalyst for their next move, though it's hard to see from where any positive one might emerge. Conditions in Europe are dire, China is slowing, and the US is pretty much running in place.
August could be pretty scary, though probably not as bad as last year, when the US bumped up against the debt ceiling and had its credit rating lowered. On the other hand, the rhetoric is already heating up in congress over raising the debt ceiling again. The IMF suggested the US raise the debt limit "soon" and House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer told Republicans he would like a vote in the House in the "very near term" on the debt ceiling, though Majority Leader John Boehner has suggested that the limit not be raised without offsetting budget cuts.
So, perhaps the coming months may be deja vu all over again.
Dow 12,908.70, +103.16 (0.81%)
NASDAQ 2,942.60, +32.56 (1.12%)
S&P 500 1,372.78, +9.11 (0.67%)
NYSE Composite 7,831.09, +36.32 (0.47%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,793,354,500.00
NYSE Volume 3,613,047,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3393-2128
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 346-62
WTI crude oil: 89.87, +0.65
Gold: 1,570.80, -18.70
Silver: 27.10, -0.22
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
Bernanke Frightens, Then Appeases Bankers; Markets Rip
Talk about the tail wagging the dog.
Today, in semi-annual testimony before congress, Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, did not give any hints to his banker/bankster friends that the Fed was planning any more easy money, i.e. quantitative easing (QE) events in the near future.
No hints of free money? Blasphemy! said the markets, as the indices fell from early strong gains to steep losses in a matter of minutes.
The Dow, which was up 40 points before Bernanke's written remarks were made available, fell to a loss of 82 points, with the other indices showing similar patterns.
But, during the question and answer period, the chairman began to make it clear that the Fed was indeed considering QE, albeit not quite as soon as the banking masters were expecting it, like in September, the timing nearly perfectly political for the election. Stocks reversed their losses, went positive and posted strong gains for the session.
Other than the words coming out of Bernanke's mouth, nothing else mattered today.
In the immortal words of the Mobambo Guru, "This investing stuff is easy. Wheeeeee!"
Dow 12,805.54, +78.33 (0.62%)
NASDAQ 2,910.04, +13.10 (0.45%)
S&P 500 1,363.67, +10.03 (0.74%)
NYSE Composite 7,792.15, +49.14 (0.63%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,722,949,375
NYSE Volume 3,239,712,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3436-2129
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 325-113
WTI crude oil: 89.22, +0.79
Gold: 1,589.50, -2.10
Silver: 27.32, -0.01
Today, in semi-annual testimony before congress, Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, did not give any hints to his banker/bankster friends that the Fed was planning any more easy money, i.e. quantitative easing (QE) events in the near future.
No hints of free money? Blasphemy! said the markets, as the indices fell from early strong gains to steep losses in a matter of minutes.
The Dow, which was up 40 points before Bernanke's written remarks were made available, fell to a loss of 82 points, with the other indices showing similar patterns.
But, during the question and answer period, the chairman began to make it clear that the Fed was indeed considering QE, albeit not quite as soon as the banking masters were expecting it, like in September, the timing nearly perfectly political for the election. Stocks reversed their losses, went positive and posted strong gains for the session.
Other than the words coming out of Bernanke's mouth, nothing else mattered today.
In the immortal words of the Mobambo Guru, "This investing stuff is easy. Wheeeeee!"
Dow 12,805.54, +78.33 (0.62%)
NASDAQ 2,910.04, +13.10 (0.45%)
S&P 500 1,363.67, +10.03 (0.74%)
NYSE Composite 7,792.15, +49.14 (0.63%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,722,949,375
NYSE Volume 3,239,712,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3436-2129
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 325-113
WTI crude oil: 89.22, +0.79
Gold: 1,589.50, -2.10
Silver: 27.32, -0.01
Monday, July 16, 2012
Markets Lower for Seventh Straight Monday in Sideways Trading
Get ready for a real roller coaster ride this week.
With Monday's declines marking the seventh straight Monday in which the market has sustained losses - an event which hasn't occurred since 2002 - the stage is set for more fun and games brought to you by the criminal syndicate that runs Wall Street, and, to some extent, your lives.
Citigroup (C) delivered a second quarter earnings beat prior to the open which failed to move futures off their declining dime, sending stocks straight downhill at the open, a not-unforeseen event, given Friday's massive melt-up.
And therein lies the crux of the market-is-rigged argument. If stocks are headed lower on Mondays, there isn't much analysis to do if you're running a big fund, or even a little one. Same might be true for Tuesday and Wednesday; you'll nibble a little maybe, but make your big move on Thursday, because Friday, as we all know all too well, is payday, and, thanks to concoctions like weekly options expiry and the usual third Friday of the month expiry (which happens to be this Friday), you can make money without break a sweat.
That seems to be the current game plan, since, after all, the world is heading to hell in a handbasket, so, savvy players will make the most of uncertainty, to say nothing of inside information and shared strategies.
Topping the news wires today were retail sales - down for the third straight month - and the IMF lowering its wildly optimistic global growth estimate for 2013 from 4.1% to 3.9%, though neither of those indicators seemed to touch off much sentiment other than bolstering the already overtly pessimistic.
Ben Bernanke appears before congress Tuesday and Wednesday, which might be newsworthy if he actually had any power over the markets (he doesn't), though many a hopeful banker will be listening in for any hints that the Fed may try more easing, a strategy which has worked well for speculators but come up snake eyes for the US and global economies.
A few weeks back, it was suggested here that stocks could be headed for a nighty downturn or a sideways/lower trade at best. So far, the sideways has been playing out, though the lower part of the formula seems to be headed off just about every Friday.
This week could be more of the same, with the aforementioned options expiration ending the week on a note the bankers love most, the sound of ringing cash registers.
Of course, this being the middle of summer, volume was nothing to speak of, though that's become somewhat the norm since the only players left are flesh-eating zombie bankers, flush with the Fed's newly-minted cash and nothing better to do with it than gamble it all away.
Dow 12,727.21, -49.88 (0.39%)
NASDAQ 2,896.94, -11.53 (0.40%)
S&P 500 1,353.64, -3.14 (0.23%)
NYSE Composite 7,743.06, -15.62 (0.20%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,438,632,500
NYSE Volume 2,883,821,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2271-3292
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 277-71
WTI crude oil: 88.43, +1.33
Gold: 1,591.60, -0.40
Silver: 27.32, -0.05
With Monday's declines marking the seventh straight Monday in which the market has sustained losses - an event which hasn't occurred since 2002 - the stage is set for more fun and games brought to you by the criminal syndicate that runs Wall Street, and, to some extent, your lives.
Citigroup (C) delivered a second quarter earnings beat prior to the open which failed to move futures off their declining dime, sending stocks straight downhill at the open, a not-unforeseen event, given Friday's massive melt-up.
And therein lies the crux of the market-is-rigged argument. If stocks are headed lower on Mondays, there isn't much analysis to do if you're running a big fund, or even a little one. Same might be true for Tuesday and Wednesday; you'll nibble a little maybe, but make your big move on Thursday, because Friday, as we all know all too well, is payday, and, thanks to concoctions like weekly options expiry and the usual third Friday of the month expiry (which happens to be this Friday), you can make money without break a sweat.
That seems to be the current game plan, since, after all, the world is heading to hell in a handbasket, so, savvy players will make the most of uncertainty, to say nothing of inside information and shared strategies.
Topping the news wires today were retail sales - down for the third straight month - and the IMF lowering its wildly optimistic global growth estimate for 2013 from 4.1% to 3.9%, though neither of those indicators seemed to touch off much sentiment other than bolstering the already overtly pessimistic.
Ben Bernanke appears before congress Tuesday and Wednesday, which might be newsworthy if he actually had any power over the markets (he doesn't), though many a hopeful banker will be listening in for any hints that the Fed may try more easing, a strategy which has worked well for speculators but come up snake eyes for the US and global economies.
A few weeks back, it was suggested here that stocks could be headed for a nighty downturn or a sideways/lower trade at best. So far, the sideways has been playing out, though the lower part of the formula seems to be headed off just about every Friday.
This week could be more of the same, with the aforementioned options expiration ending the week on a note the bankers love most, the sound of ringing cash registers.
Of course, this being the middle of summer, volume was nothing to speak of, though that's become somewhat the norm since the only players left are flesh-eating zombie bankers, flush with the Fed's newly-minted cash and nothing better to do with it than gamble it all away.
Dow 12,727.21, -49.88 (0.39%)
NASDAQ 2,896.94, -11.53 (0.40%)
S&P 500 1,353.64, -3.14 (0.23%)
NYSE Composite 7,743.06, -15.62 (0.20%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,438,632,500
NYSE Volume 2,883,821,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2271-3292
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 277-71
WTI crude oil: 88.43, +1.33
Gold: 1,591.60, -0.40
Silver: 27.32, -0.05
Friday, July 13, 2012
Financial Fraud Wins Again: JP Morgan Posts 2Q Gain; Markets Rocket Higher
Details? Why, Jamie Dimon gave you his own set of details of how the $4.4 billion lost on the "London Whale" CIO trade was easily balanced out with gains from other areas of the business.
Take a look (straight from their filing):
$4.4 billion pretax loss ($0.69 per share after-tax reduction in earnings) from CIO trading losses and...
$1.0 billion pretax benefit ($0.16 per share after-tax increase in earnings) from securities gains in CIO's investment securities portfolio in Corporate.
$2.1 billion pretax benefit ($0.33 per share after-tax increase in earnings) from reduced loan loss reserves, mostly mortgage and credit card.
$0.8 billion pretax gain ($0.12 per share after-tax increase in earnings) from debit valuation adjustments ("DVA") in the Investment Bank.
$0.5 billion pretax gain ($0.09 per share after-tax increase in earnings) reflecting expected full recovery on a Bear Stearns-related first-loss note in Corporate.
Add the gains up and they come to $4.4 billion. Ta-da! And that six-day losing streak? Fixed it for ya' all in one day.
Simple, really, when you can just lower your loan lass reserves and call that profit, to the tune of $2.1 billion.
Never mind that JP Morgan is restating its first quarter results due to mis-marking of CDS (a crime) and that much of the mis-marking was in the CIO office where the London Whale was busy exploding the balance sheet. But, but, but, during the conference call, CEO Jamie Dimon said it will have no impact on the bottom line. Magic!
JPMorgan's overall net income was $4.96 billion, or $1.21 a share, compared with $5.43 billion, or $1.27 a share, a year earlier. Results for both periods included special items (Why are you not surprised?). Analysts expected 76 cents per share, so, from a purely blind-eye to the past purview, it's a beat, and stock-pickers love that. Shares of JPM soared nearly six percent, up 2.03, to 36.07 per share.
Naturally, just as in the sub-prime, robo-sgning, Libor and other scandals, nobody will see the inside of a prison cell.
You can't make this stuff up unless you're a banker, in which case, you do it on a daily basis, or, more succinctly, a quarterly basis.
JP Morgan's books are so cooked, asbestos gloves are needed to open them. But, hey, wall Street and the rest of the investment crowd criminals loved it, boosting stocks for the first time in six days, effectively squeezing shorts to the tune of another 200+ point gain on the Dow.
Sound familiar? Friday is payday for the banking cartel; seemingly, they're on the two-week model, as today's fiasco comes exactly two weeks after the "Europe's fixed" sugar high rally.
And, just in case anybody's keeping track, volume today was absolutely anemic. So much for support for this, yet another, phony rally.
Everything is manipulated, from the price of oil to what you pay for green beans and everything else, from CDS to, yes, interest rates, from the 0.5% the banks pay to borrow from the Fed, to the 18% they charge you for your credit card. Nice business, isn't it. It's all fixed and you can't win. Only bankers win.
But it's all good, people. A raging stock market makes everybody happy, especially the members of the banking cartel, who live by other laws than ordinary citizens. They cannot go to jail, for anything, ever, and that's the truth.
Live with it.
Dow 12,777.09, +203.82 (1.62%)
NASDAQ 2,908.47, +42.28 (1.48%)
S&P 500 1,356.78, +22.02 (1.65%)
NYSE Composite 7,758.67, +120.02 (1.57%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,356,260,750
NYSE Volume 3,190,493,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3436-1185
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 341-52
WTI crude oil: 87.10, +1.02
Gold: 1,592.00, +26.70
Silver: 27.37, +0.21
Take a look (straight from their filing):
$4.4 billion pretax loss ($0.69 per share after-tax reduction in earnings) from CIO trading losses and...
$1.0 billion pretax benefit ($0.16 per share after-tax increase in earnings) from securities gains in CIO's investment securities portfolio in Corporate.
$2.1 billion pretax benefit ($0.33 per share after-tax increase in earnings) from reduced loan loss reserves, mostly mortgage and credit card.
$0.8 billion pretax gain ($0.12 per share after-tax increase in earnings) from debit valuation adjustments ("DVA") in the Investment Bank.
$0.5 billion pretax gain ($0.09 per share after-tax increase in earnings) reflecting expected full recovery on a Bear Stearns-related first-loss note in Corporate.
Add the gains up and they come to $4.4 billion. Ta-da! And that six-day losing streak? Fixed it for ya' all in one day.
Simple, really, when you can just lower your loan lass reserves and call that profit, to the tune of $2.1 billion.
Never mind that JP Morgan is restating its first quarter results due to mis-marking of CDS (a crime) and that much of the mis-marking was in the CIO office where the London Whale was busy exploding the balance sheet. But, but, but, during the conference call, CEO Jamie Dimon said it will have no impact on the bottom line. Magic!
JPMorgan's overall net income was $4.96 billion, or $1.21 a share, compared with $5.43 billion, or $1.27 a share, a year earlier. Results for both periods included special items (Why are you not surprised?). Analysts expected 76 cents per share, so, from a purely blind-eye to the past purview, it's a beat, and stock-pickers love that. Shares of JPM soared nearly six percent, up 2.03, to 36.07 per share.
Naturally, just as in the sub-prime, robo-sgning, Libor and other scandals, nobody will see the inside of a prison cell.
You can't make this stuff up unless you're a banker, in which case, you do it on a daily basis, or, more succinctly, a quarterly basis.
JP Morgan's books are so cooked, asbestos gloves are needed to open them. But, hey, wall Street and the rest of the investment crowd criminals loved it, boosting stocks for the first time in six days, effectively squeezing shorts to the tune of another 200+ point gain on the Dow.
Sound familiar? Friday is payday for the banking cartel; seemingly, they're on the two-week model, as today's fiasco comes exactly two weeks after the "Europe's fixed" sugar high rally.
And, just in case anybody's keeping track, volume today was absolutely anemic. So much for support for this, yet another, phony rally.
Everything is manipulated, from the price of oil to what you pay for green beans and everything else, from CDS to, yes, interest rates, from the 0.5% the banks pay to borrow from the Fed, to the 18% they charge you for your credit card. Nice business, isn't it. It's all fixed and you can't win. Only bankers win.
But it's all good, people. A raging stock market makes everybody happy, especially the members of the banking cartel, who live by other laws than ordinary citizens. They cannot go to jail, for anything, ever, and that's the truth.
Live with it.
Dow 12,777.09, +203.82 (1.62%)
NASDAQ 2,908.47, +42.28 (1.48%)
S&P 500 1,356.78, +22.02 (1.65%)
NYSE Composite 7,758.67, +120.02 (1.57%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,356,260,750
NYSE Volume 3,190,493,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3436-1185
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 341-52
WTI crude oil: 87.10, +1.02
Gold: 1,592.00, +26.70
Silver: 27.37, +0.21
Thursday, July 12, 2012
Dow, S&P Fall for Sixth Straight Session
As opposed to Wednesday's heavy news flow, there was almost nothing - other than company-specific earnings reports - by which to move markets on Thursday.
Inexplicably, even after initial unemployment claims came in at a nice, round, 350,000, a number that was the lowest in four years (as dubiously reported - but confirmed - by CNBC), stocks started the day at their lows, but proceeded to gain in fits and starts throughout the session, but ended dead in the water, the Dow and S&P posting their sixth consecutive days of losses.
What sufficed as information today was sparse, though yesterday's barrage of news was likely analyzed, scrutinized, digested, regurgitated and eventually ignored by the day-trading animaal spirits normally at the forefront of speculation.
It was a true buy the dip day, with plungers taking their best shots at stocks in the heart of what appears to be a rocky earnings season.
Expectations have been lowered to a point at which most companies can make their numbers for the second quarter, even though they'll be looking at sequential declines in many cases, so, that portends ill going through the next two to three weeks.
In the odd circumstance that one would be so carefree and risk-insensitive to take a dive into Wall Street's waters at this juncture, tight stops on the downside of any trade would be advisable as companies and analysts are set to unleash a rash of downgrades to individual companies and the general economy, covering the next six months.
With the presidential election less than four months ahead, congress will be even more dead-handed than usual, with no meaningful legislation - though lots and lots of posturing and posing - on the calendar. With crises and scandals popping up seemingly every other day, this is not an environment for the feint of heart, even though a good percentage of Americans have their retirements wound into the fabric of this unruly market through pensions or 401k plans.
The close of the week should prove challenging, as the day will be led off by none other than JP Morgan Chase (JPM), which releases its second quarter earnings report prior to the opening bell. At issue is not only the size of the loss from the "London Whale" trade, but whether or not golden boy, Jamie Dimon will have some of his ludicrous bonus clawed back. It should make for interesting theater, if nothing else.
Of particular note to technicians are the continuing beat by declining issues in the A-D line, and the slow but sure rise of new 52-week lows, which neared parity today and actually favored the new lows on the NASDAQ, 68-50. If the market is trending, it is surely making a case for heading south.
Dow 12,573.27, -31.26 (0.25%)
NASDAQ 2,866.19, -21.79 (0.75%)
S&P 500 1,334.76, -6.69 (0.50%)
NYSE Composite 7,638.72, -46.65 (0.61%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,689,227,375
NYSE Volume 3,636,806,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2139-3403
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 153-130
WTI crude oil: 86.08, +0.27
Gold: 1,565.30, -10.40
Silver: 27.16, +0.14
Inexplicably, even after initial unemployment claims came in at a nice, round, 350,000, a number that was the lowest in four years (as dubiously reported - but confirmed - by CNBC), stocks started the day at their lows, but proceeded to gain in fits and starts throughout the session, but ended dead in the water, the Dow and S&P posting their sixth consecutive days of losses.
What sufficed as information today was sparse, though yesterday's barrage of news was likely analyzed, scrutinized, digested, regurgitated and eventually ignored by the day-trading animaal spirits normally at the forefront of speculation.
It was a true buy the dip day, with plungers taking their best shots at stocks in the heart of what appears to be a rocky earnings season.
Expectations have been lowered to a point at which most companies can make their numbers for the second quarter, even though they'll be looking at sequential declines in many cases, so, that portends ill going through the next two to three weeks.
In the odd circumstance that one would be so carefree and risk-insensitive to take a dive into Wall Street's waters at this juncture, tight stops on the downside of any trade would be advisable as companies and analysts are set to unleash a rash of downgrades to individual companies and the general economy, covering the next six months.
With the presidential election less than four months ahead, congress will be even more dead-handed than usual, with no meaningful legislation - though lots and lots of posturing and posing - on the calendar. With crises and scandals popping up seemingly every other day, this is not an environment for the feint of heart, even though a good percentage of Americans have their retirements wound into the fabric of this unruly market through pensions or 401k plans.
The close of the week should prove challenging, as the day will be led off by none other than JP Morgan Chase (JPM), which releases its second quarter earnings report prior to the opening bell. At issue is not only the size of the loss from the "London Whale" trade, but whether or not golden boy, Jamie Dimon will have some of his ludicrous bonus clawed back. It should make for interesting theater, if nothing else.
Of particular note to technicians are the continuing beat by declining issues in the A-D line, and the slow but sure rise of new 52-week lows, which neared parity today and actually favored the new lows on the NASDAQ, 68-50. If the market is trending, it is surely making a case for heading south.
Dow 12,573.27, -31.26 (0.25%)
NASDAQ 2,866.19, -21.79 (0.75%)
S&P 500 1,334.76, -6.69 (0.50%)
NYSE Composite 7,638.72, -46.65 (0.61%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,689,227,375
NYSE Volume 3,636,806,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2139-3403
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 153-130
WTI crude oil: 86.08, +0.27
Gold: 1,565.30, -10.40
Silver: 27.16, +0.14
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