Call it what you like: rigged, played, insider trading, manipulated, contrived; when markets are not allowed to be free from intervention by governments or massive money managers, you get what amounts to basically nothing, stagnation, atrophy.
Read it and wonder. No explanation is sufficient nor necessary.
Dow 13,165.19, -10.45 (0.08%)
NASDAQ 3,018.64, +7.39 (0.25%)
S&P 500 1,402.80, +0.58 (0.04%)
NYSE Composite 8,025.00, +6.77 (0.08%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,677,765,625
NYSE Volume 3,089,631. 750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3077-2454
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 204-41
WTI crude oil: 93.36, +0.01
Gold: 1,620.20, +4.20
Silver: 28.10, -0.02
Thursday, August 9, 2012
Wednesday, August 8, 2012
Why Bother? Stocks Are Volatile and May Be Overpriced
With nearly two trillion dollars having been shifted out of stock funds into bond funds and elsewhere over the past four years, wealth managers and their clients might look at today's results and question whether stocks are worth even bothering with at all.
Besides volatility and inherently high risk that stocks present, there are also event risks, especially within the framework of recent politics, the European debt crisis and the so-called fiscal cliff which continues to approach without resolution from either the president or the current do-nothing congress.
What's amazing about the current state of US markets is how wonderfully they engage in self-levitation, despite crumbling profitability and dubious upgrades. Now 41 months into the cyclical bull market, the risk/reward scenario for anyone thinking about taking the plunge into stocks offers a mixed bag, at best, and questionable fundamentals at worst.
Take, for example, the two stocks of the day. McDonald's (MCD) had some horrendous numbers for the month of July, missing their targets, with a special nod to Europe, where sales and revenue were far below the mark. The stock was damaged by the news, though not badly, losing 1.48, to 87.53, on the day, though the multiple of 14 has some analysts worried about a global slowdown which would affect even such a stellar performer.
Priceline (PCLN), a momentum stock par excellence was a bit of a different story, losing 117.48 points (17.28%), to 562.32 today, after citing Europe as the main cause for revising its third quarter estimates lower.
Similar stories have rolled through the investment landscape with regularity over the past six months. The business climate has grown more challenging than ever with so much uncertainty about the future, both in the US and in Europe. It's difficult for companies to meet expectations for revenue and profit in such an unstable environment.
Many have already thrown in the towel on stocks and, at these levels, many more may see cashing out before the fall as a viable plan. The macro picture is still cloudy and murky, fraught with dangers, some of which are largely unseen. The bull market may be nearing the end of its course, making stocks less attractive for long-term investors.
Dow 13,175.64, +7.04 (0.05%)
Nasdaq 3,011.25, -4.61 (0.15%)
S&P 500 1,402.22, +0.87 (0.06%)
NYSE Composite 8,018.24, +0.53 (0.01%)
NYSE Volume 3,227,711,500
Nasdaq Volume 1,881,049,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2535-2886
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 208-51
WTI crude oil: 93.35, -0.32
Gold: 1,616.00, +3.20
Silver: 28.08, -0.01
Besides volatility and inherently high risk that stocks present, there are also event risks, especially within the framework of recent politics, the European debt crisis and the so-called fiscal cliff which continues to approach without resolution from either the president or the current do-nothing congress.
What's amazing about the current state of US markets is how wonderfully they engage in self-levitation, despite crumbling profitability and dubious upgrades. Now 41 months into the cyclical bull market, the risk/reward scenario for anyone thinking about taking the plunge into stocks offers a mixed bag, at best, and questionable fundamentals at worst.
Take, for example, the two stocks of the day. McDonald's (MCD) had some horrendous numbers for the month of July, missing their targets, with a special nod to Europe, where sales and revenue were far below the mark. The stock was damaged by the news, though not badly, losing 1.48, to 87.53, on the day, though the multiple of 14 has some analysts worried about a global slowdown which would affect even such a stellar performer.
Priceline (PCLN), a momentum stock par excellence was a bit of a different story, losing 117.48 points (17.28%), to 562.32 today, after citing Europe as the main cause for revising its third quarter estimates lower.
Similar stories have rolled through the investment landscape with regularity over the past six months. The business climate has grown more challenging than ever with so much uncertainty about the future, both in the US and in Europe. It's difficult for companies to meet expectations for revenue and profit in such an unstable environment.
Many have already thrown in the towel on stocks and, at these levels, many more may see cashing out before the fall as a viable plan. The macro picture is still cloudy and murky, fraught with dangers, some of which are largely unseen. The bull market may be nearing the end of its course, making stocks less attractive for long-term investors.
Dow 13,175.64, +7.04 (0.05%)
Nasdaq 3,011.25, -4.61 (0.15%)
S&P 500 1,402.22, +0.87 (0.06%)
NYSE Composite 8,018.24, +0.53 (0.01%)
NYSE Volume 3,227,711,500
Nasdaq Volume 1,881,049,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2535-2886
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 208-51
WTI crude oil: 93.35, -0.32
Gold: 1,616.00, +3.20
Silver: 28.08, -0.01
Tuesday, August 7, 2012
Stocks Tread Slightly Higher Amid Quiet News Flow
With news flow at a low point, given Europe and America's traditional vacation seasons, the Olympics in London and the generally-implied blackout of any stories that may paint the current economic picture as anything other than manageable or rosy, stocks were free to rise unfettered over the past two days, though Tuesday's gains were of a larger magnitude than Monday's.
Any stock market gains in the short term serve only the interests of the status quo and their loyalist followers and useful idiots in the furtherance of fiat folly. There are divided camps forming globally, set in their ideals and aspirations over the future of the money, investment and capital formation, which has lately been forming at two extremes: one being that of the very, very rich (and for them, capital formation means only money in their hands) and the other at the extreme fringe edges in black markets, very small business enterprises (micro), alternate currencies and sustainable local economies.
Those on the high end of the income ladder believe they hold all advantage. After all, theirs is the accepted means of conveyance: large, faceless, unaccountable corporations operating on massive scale with tax codes and regulations written to advance their cause and hinder all competition. They also have the blessing of governments, ease of entry into markets and access to nearly unlimited capital.
Playing by their own rules, corporations, as quasi-branches of elite banking and political machines, have every practical advantage over start-up entrepreneurs and small business, excepting some crucial, psychological ones, such as new ideas with appeal to the general public, community awareness and high levels of personalized customer service, often face-to-face and local.
As the debt de-leveraging process continues - over what now appears to be a very long course of possibly eight to twelve years, beginning with the mid-summer of 2008 - corporations on national and global scale will find customer tastes that are slowly changing and evolving, shifting to a preference for smaller and exceedingly local enterprises.
While the corporatists play their numbers games, squeezing out every last drop of revenue and profit from a dwindling supply of discretionary money, they are the few, and the hunted, while the risk-takers outside of the traditional business cycle swell in number and gain strength through diversity, ingenuity and spirit.
In a macro sense, on the surface all seems to be business as usual, though once the facades are peeled away, truths unearthed, hearts and minds changed, there is revealed a noisy war on multiple fronts being waged by rebellious forces of sound money and financial freedom.
It's a process, and it proceeds slowly, quietly in the background, but it is proceeding nonetheless.
Dow 13,168.22, +50.71 (0.39%)
NASDAQ 3,015.86, +25.95 (0.87%)
S&P 500 1,401.34, +7.11 (0.51%)
NYSE Composite 8,023.49, +59.39 (0.75%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,856,287,375.00
NYSE Volume 3,494,027,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3589-1960
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 292-47
WTI crude oil: 93.67, +1.47
Gold: 1,612.80, -3.40
Silver: 28.09, +0.22
Any stock market gains in the short term serve only the interests of the status quo and their loyalist followers and useful idiots in the furtherance of fiat folly. There are divided camps forming globally, set in their ideals and aspirations over the future of the money, investment and capital formation, which has lately been forming at two extremes: one being that of the very, very rich (and for them, capital formation means only money in their hands) and the other at the extreme fringe edges in black markets, very small business enterprises (micro), alternate currencies and sustainable local economies.
Those on the high end of the income ladder believe they hold all advantage. After all, theirs is the accepted means of conveyance: large, faceless, unaccountable corporations operating on massive scale with tax codes and regulations written to advance their cause and hinder all competition. They also have the blessing of governments, ease of entry into markets and access to nearly unlimited capital.
Playing by their own rules, corporations, as quasi-branches of elite banking and political machines, have every practical advantage over start-up entrepreneurs and small business, excepting some crucial, psychological ones, such as new ideas with appeal to the general public, community awareness and high levels of personalized customer service, often face-to-face and local.
As the debt de-leveraging process continues - over what now appears to be a very long course of possibly eight to twelve years, beginning with the mid-summer of 2008 - corporations on national and global scale will find customer tastes that are slowly changing and evolving, shifting to a preference for smaller and exceedingly local enterprises.
While the corporatists play their numbers games, squeezing out every last drop of revenue and profit from a dwindling supply of discretionary money, they are the few, and the hunted, while the risk-takers outside of the traditional business cycle swell in number and gain strength through diversity, ingenuity and spirit.
In a macro sense, on the surface all seems to be business as usual, though once the facades are peeled away, truths unearthed, hearts and minds changed, there is revealed a noisy war on multiple fronts being waged by rebellious forces of sound money and financial freedom.
It's a process, and it proceeds slowly, quietly in the background, but it is proceeding nonetheless.
Dow 13,168.22, +50.71 (0.39%)
NASDAQ 3,015.86, +25.95 (0.87%)
S&P 500 1,401.34, +7.11 (0.51%)
NYSE Composite 8,023.49, +59.39 (0.75%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,856,287,375.00
NYSE Volume 3,494,027,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3589-1960
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 292-47
WTI crude oil: 93.67, +1.47
Gold: 1,612.80, -3.40
Silver: 28.09, +0.22
Friday, August 3, 2012
Markets Soar on NFP Data; End Week with Paltry Gains
Bernanke didn't deliver. Draghi promised much, but fell fell well short in the court of public opinion.
The BLS, however, with its July non-farm payroll report, hit a home run, reporting an increase of 163,000 net new jobs, well beyond average expectations of 85,000, which was good enough for the investariat to send stocks screaming higher as the week closed out with a winning session after four straight losers.
Friday's gains were enough to just about cover the losses for the week, even though volume was the lowest of the five days and the official unemployment rate ticked up to 8.3%. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrials added 20 points and some change, the S&P gained five, while the NASDAQ picked up nine points.
The NYSE Composite index added 27 points, making the week as a whole much ado about nothing in particular.
Noting that the BLS figures are highly suspect and likely politically-contrived, the prior month's figure of an 80,000 gain was revised to 64,000, casting a bit of a pall on the madness of numbers. Investors (using the term lightly) didn't care, sending stocks near three-month highs.
Naturally, most of the gains were made in the opening minutes of trading, closing out profits to all but the privileged few HFTs and insider, bankster types who always seem to be the most profitable in the market.
Once the initial burst of activity had concluded, the market drifted the rest of the session in a very tight range. For instance, the Dow, after 9:45 am EDT, didn't move in either direction by more than 30 points. This is exactly the kind of frightened trading one would assume in a headline-driven, mostly-artificial market.
The week's activity leaves open some very poignant questions. Since last week's two-day burst was derived from hope for relief from the Fed and ECB in the form of more easing of monetary policy or, in the ECB's case, a more robust lending facility with which to bail out failing banks and sovereigns, why then would a positive reading on employment send stocks higher after both the Fed and ECB disappointed?
Apparently, Wall Street gets it either way. Poor economic conditions produce lax monetary policy (and stock gains), but job growth seemingly blunts the argument for more easing, while showing that the economy is on the road to recovery. A win for Wall Street either way, though long-time market observers might view such duplicity with a dollop of disdain.
Chartists may wish to point out the Dow's double top pattern, though still at levels below the year's highs made in the first week of May. The other major indices display similar patterns, with the broadest measures, the NASDAQ and NYSE Composite, showing many trading gaps along the road higher.
It goes without saying that the current market environment is highly reactive and immediate, especially to the upside. Valuations, which, of course, everybody gives the short shrift these days, are fairly rich, especially with corporate profits mostly down from a year ago and many companies missing revenue targets in the second quarter.
Being the end of the week, and payday or some kind of day for the masters of the universe, the pattern has recently been to end with a loud bang, followed by celebrations at favored watering holes or house parties in the Hamptons.
It's the middle of summer and the rich have to play, after all.
Dow 13,096.17, +217.29 (1.69%)
NASDAQ 2,967.90, +58.13 (2.00%)
S&P 500 1,390.99, +25.99 (1.90%)
NYSE Composite 7,935.35, +169.75 (2.19%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,696,452,375
NYSE Volume 3,499,269,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4479-1107
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 286-70
WTI crude oil: 91.40, +4.27
Gold: 1,609.30, +18.60
Silver: 27.80, +0.81
The BLS, however, with its July non-farm payroll report, hit a home run, reporting an increase of 163,000 net new jobs, well beyond average expectations of 85,000, which was good enough for the investariat to send stocks screaming higher as the week closed out with a winning session after four straight losers.
Friday's gains were enough to just about cover the losses for the week, even though volume was the lowest of the five days and the official unemployment rate ticked up to 8.3%. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrials added 20 points and some change, the S&P gained five, while the NASDAQ picked up nine points.
The NYSE Composite index added 27 points, making the week as a whole much ado about nothing in particular.
Noting that the BLS figures are highly suspect and likely politically-contrived, the prior month's figure of an 80,000 gain was revised to 64,000, casting a bit of a pall on the madness of numbers. Investors (using the term lightly) didn't care, sending stocks near three-month highs.
Naturally, most of the gains were made in the opening minutes of trading, closing out profits to all but the privileged few HFTs and insider, bankster types who always seem to be the most profitable in the market.
Once the initial burst of activity had concluded, the market drifted the rest of the session in a very tight range. For instance, the Dow, after 9:45 am EDT, didn't move in either direction by more than 30 points. This is exactly the kind of frightened trading one would assume in a headline-driven, mostly-artificial market.
The week's activity leaves open some very poignant questions. Since last week's two-day burst was derived from hope for relief from the Fed and ECB in the form of more easing of monetary policy or, in the ECB's case, a more robust lending facility with which to bail out failing banks and sovereigns, why then would a positive reading on employment send stocks higher after both the Fed and ECB disappointed?
Apparently, Wall Street gets it either way. Poor economic conditions produce lax monetary policy (and stock gains), but job growth seemingly blunts the argument for more easing, while showing that the economy is on the road to recovery. A win for Wall Street either way, though long-time market observers might view such duplicity with a dollop of disdain.
Chartists may wish to point out the Dow's double top pattern, though still at levels below the year's highs made in the first week of May. The other major indices display similar patterns, with the broadest measures, the NASDAQ and NYSE Composite, showing many trading gaps along the road higher.
It goes without saying that the current market environment is highly reactive and immediate, especially to the upside. Valuations, which, of course, everybody gives the short shrift these days, are fairly rich, especially with corporate profits mostly down from a year ago and many companies missing revenue targets in the second quarter.
Being the end of the week, and payday or some kind of day for the masters of the universe, the pattern has recently been to end with a loud bang, followed by celebrations at favored watering holes or house parties in the Hamptons.
It's the middle of summer and the rich have to play, after all.
Dow 13,096.17, +217.29 (1.69%)
NASDAQ 2,967.90, +58.13 (2.00%)
S&P 500 1,390.99, +25.99 (1.90%)
NYSE Composite 7,935.35, +169.75 (2.19%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,696,452,375
NYSE Volume 3,499,269,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4479-1107
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 286-70
WTI crude oil: 91.40, +4.27
Gold: 1,609.30, +18.60
Silver: 27.80, +0.81
Thursday, August 2, 2012
ECB's Draghi Offers No Solution to European Debt Crisis; Markets Tank
After last week's explosive rallies - based entirely upon notions that Fed Chiaman, Ben Bernanke, and ECB president, Mario Draghi, were committed to fixing their ailing economies, this week's reality show fell flat on its face on both continents.
On Wednesday, when the Fed announced the usual no change in federal funds rates, it also added no stimulus for the US economy or even language that would lead investors to believe that another round of QE was son to follow.
Today's speech following the no-event in Brussels, in which the ECB kept interest rates pegged at 0.75%, Draghi's rhetoric could not have been less encouraging, especially after the strong words he uttered just days ago, saying that the ECB would employ all of its tools to keep the Euro strong and the Eurozone of 17 countries that use the common currency, intact.
The lack of follow-through by the two central bankers proved once more that monetary policy is stuck in a morass of debt and delusion, and also, that whatever measures they might employ now or in the future will have little effect upon the general economy.
Essentially, the policies currently in place - near-zero interest rates, massive bond-buying schemes and general criminality amongst the banking crowd - will continue without change or revision, and, thus, will do nothing to disengage the European and US economies from the slow-to-no-growth regimen they have been anchored in for the past three to four years.
With stock players taking their cues from the big-talkers, shares in European indices were smashed down hard, with declines across nearly all the major exchanges of 1.5 - 2.5 percent.
In the US, the losses were lighter, but beginning to accumulate, as fears arise over the size of the jobs number due out Friday morning.
The markets now have become conditioned to reacting immediately to rumors and headlines, a condition not conducive to profitable investing, the general pattern being dead markets when there is little of substance in the news, and wild swings whenever a central banker opens his or her mouth. Ironically, when central bankers do speak, what they say has little actual bearing on the economy, though they and the stock pickers and players like to think it does.
Capital markets have, for some time, been in an overpriced consolidation phase, with confidence waning even among professionals. The retail investor has all but abandoned stocks as a reliable instrument for sound investment, as the entire rigged affair has become too driven by insiders with specific knowledge and too risky for such small returns.
Both the Fed and ECB have managed to paint themselves into their own corners, with seemingly no escape route. All that matters is to keep markets in a manner that makes them look like they're functioning as normal.
While that plan is barely working, the rest of the planet plays dutifully along, waiting for some kind of dramatic event that will alter the investing landscape. Unfortunately for the waiters and current investors, such events usually tend to be of the negative variety.
The continued can-kicking by the authorities hasn't done the trick to this point, so it's folly to believe that even more stimulative efforts by central banks will offer any kind of relief. The trouble with this kick-the-can-down-the-road style of monetary policy is that the road eventually ends and with it, so too the power to create debt out of thin air and pass it along to the taxpayers.
That happens to be about the only glimmer of hope in this sordid chapter of Keynesian economics: that the system itself will eventually fail, prompting a return to sound money and economic principles that do not rely on debt.
Dow 12,878.88, -92.18 (0.71%)
NASDAQ 2,909.77. -10.44 (0.36%)
S&P 500 1,365.00, -10.14 (0.74%)
NYSE Composite 7,765.60, -75.75 (0.97%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,832,069,000
NYSE Volume 4,139,315.750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2176-3350
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 130-157
WTI crude oil: 87.13, -1.78
Gold: 1,590.70, -16.60
Silver: 27.00, -0.54
On Wednesday, when the Fed announced the usual no change in federal funds rates, it also added no stimulus for the US economy or even language that would lead investors to believe that another round of QE was son to follow.
Today's speech following the no-event in Brussels, in which the ECB kept interest rates pegged at 0.75%, Draghi's rhetoric could not have been less encouraging, especially after the strong words he uttered just days ago, saying that the ECB would employ all of its tools to keep the Euro strong and the Eurozone of 17 countries that use the common currency, intact.
The lack of follow-through by the two central bankers proved once more that monetary policy is stuck in a morass of debt and delusion, and also, that whatever measures they might employ now or in the future will have little effect upon the general economy.
Essentially, the policies currently in place - near-zero interest rates, massive bond-buying schemes and general criminality amongst the banking crowd - will continue without change or revision, and, thus, will do nothing to disengage the European and US economies from the slow-to-no-growth regimen they have been anchored in for the past three to four years.
With stock players taking their cues from the big-talkers, shares in European indices were smashed down hard, with declines across nearly all the major exchanges of 1.5 - 2.5 percent.
In the US, the losses were lighter, but beginning to accumulate, as fears arise over the size of the jobs number due out Friday morning.
The markets now have become conditioned to reacting immediately to rumors and headlines, a condition not conducive to profitable investing, the general pattern being dead markets when there is little of substance in the news, and wild swings whenever a central banker opens his or her mouth. Ironically, when central bankers do speak, what they say has little actual bearing on the economy, though they and the stock pickers and players like to think it does.
Capital markets have, for some time, been in an overpriced consolidation phase, with confidence waning even among professionals. The retail investor has all but abandoned stocks as a reliable instrument for sound investment, as the entire rigged affair has become too driven by insiders with specific knowledge and too risky for such small returns.
Both the Fed and ECB have managed to paint themselves into their own corners, with seemingly no escape route. All that matters is to keep markets in a manner that makes them look like they're functioning as normal.
While that plan is barely working, the rest of the planet plays dutifully along, waiting for some kind of dramatic event that will alter the investing landscape. Unfortunately for the waiters and current investors, such events usually tend to be of the negative variety.
The continued can-kicking by the authorities hasn't done the trick to this point, so it's folly to believe that even more stimulative efforts by central banks will offer any kind of relief. The trouble with this kick-the-can-down-the-road style of monetary policy is that the road eventually ends and with it, so too the power to create debt out of thin air and pass it along to the taxpayers.
That happens to be about the only glimmer of hope in this sordid chapter of Keynesian economics: that the system itself will eventually fail, prompting a return to sound money and economic principles that do not rely on debt.
Dow 12,878.88, -92.18 (0.71%)
NASDAQ 2,909.77. -10.44 (0.36%)
S&P 500 1,365.00, -10.14 (0.74%)
NYSE Composite 7,765.60, -75.75 (0.97%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,832,069,000
NYSE Volume 4,139,315.750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2176-3350
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 130-157
WTI crude oil: 87.13, -1.78
Gold: 1,590.70, -16.60
Silver: 27.00, -0.54
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
