Tuesday, May 23, 2017

Markets Continue Boom; Dow Up Third Straight Day

Remember that 372-point drop last week? All gone. Well, almost.

On Tuesday, May 16, the Dow Jone Industrial Average closed at 20,979.75. The following day, the close was 20,606.93.


After three straight days of gains, however, the Dow closed Monday at 20,894.83. So, another 85 points and last week's fallout will be all but forgotten, the band-aid removed, only a small scab remaining.

Don't fight it. Even though you know stocks are overvalued, TINA (There Is No Alternative) says, "Love me."

At The Close, 5/22/17:
Dow: 20,894.83, +89.99 (0.43%)
NASDAQ: 6,133.62, +49.92 (0.82%)
S&P 500: 2,394.02, +12.29 (0.52%)
NYSE Composite: 11,585.21, +42.52 (0.37%)

Monday, May 22, 2017

Despite Friday's Gains, Stocks Finish Week Lower; About To Get A Wedgie?

Major US equity indices finished the week strong, with solid gains across all, but the weekly view gives another picture, despite the NASDAQ diverging radically from the others.

Looking especially at the NYSE Composite, the broadest index available (also the one nobody ever mentions) a rising wedge pattern appears from a May (11,254.87) 2015 top, to a bottom (8937.99) in January 2016, to this week's close at 11,542.69. Though the overall gain from the bottom last January is massive - more than 2100 points), the overall increase from the top in 2015 is fewer than 300 points, a return of less than three percent over a two-year span.

Apparently, this is why no self-serving analyst or financial news commentator ever speaks of the "Comp" in glowing terms because it reveals the truth behind this runaway bull market: that it has been concentrated among a few select stocks, leaving the bulk of issues behind, in much the same manner as wealth is distributed among individuals. Most of the money goes to the top 5%, the rest lag behind.

None of the other indices present such a pattern. They are all higher by double digits over the same period. Thus, the market shows a heavy weight toward highly speculative tech stocks in the NASDAQ, dividend-payers in the DOW, and, naturally, the 500 largest US-based companies (S&P 500).

Breadth being a hidden issue, this central bank campaign of feeding the leaders should continue as we head into what are traditionally the weakest months of trading (i.e., sell in May and go away). Internal squabbling among the FOMC board members may address this issue as the approach to an expected rate hike increase in June quickens.

The Fed has more or less signaled three rate hikes this year, though this second of the proposed three may have to hold off until September, after second quarter GDP and earnings are revealed in the latter half of July and into August. May non-farm employment - which will be announced prior to the FOMC June meeting - will also have significant impact.

After two consecutive down weeks in the S&P, Comp., and Dow, the Fed, and the markets, can ill afford another week of losses, so close attention is warranted. This week may mark a true turning point, if there ever is one to be had.

At the Close, 5/19/17:
Dow: 20,804.84, +141.82 (0.69%)
NASDAQ: 6,083.70, +28.57 (0.47%)
S&P 500: 2,381.73 +16.01 (0.68%)
NYSE Composite: 11,542.69, +108.62 (0.95%)

For the Week:
Dow: -91.77 (-0.44%)
NASDAQ: -37.53 (-0.61%)
S&P 500: -9.17 (-0.38%)
NYSE Composite: -4.57 (-0.04)

Thursday, May 18, 2017

The Market as The Matrix; Most People Took The Blue Pill

In case you’re not sure just what a “dead cat bounce” is, imagine taking a dead cat up to the top of a three-story building and dropping it to the ground.

It will bounce, but not much. This is precisely what occurred in US stocks on Thursday, the market getting a reprieve after Wednesday’s bloodbath.

One can try mightily to dissect the various moving parts of the market and arrive at pure conjecture as to what is happening any given day, but these days, reality has become stranger than fiction by massive degrees, even in such hallowed enclaves as financial markets, supposedly not prone to manipulation, fakery, or thievery, but that’s exactly what is on the table.

To say that the Fed, in conjunction with other central banks and their commercial bank proxies, own the market is likely a basic truth. To think that once owned, these players would not mold the narrative and the movement to exactly their liking, is the essence of naivety.

Since 2000, the markets have been owned, even more so since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008-09. Based on fiat money and dictates from money printers, the stock markets are the complete tool of enslavement. Governments, pensions, retirement funds, school districts, and all other manner of group investment are tied to “the market,” controlled by the Fed to never stop climbing, lest the debt-slavery of the American public become known.

If markets collapse, so to the deep state system of inflation and skimming, so don’t count on anything changing soon, President Trump or no President Trump, which is exactly why the deep state and the current residents of congress so oppose Mr/ Trump’s every move. He’s a threat to their control of the system.

It’s right out of the film, “The Matrix.” Most people took the blue pill.

Here's a short clip of Laurence Fishburne (Morpheus) explaining the Matrix to Keanu Reeves (Neo).

At The Close, 5/18/17:
Dow: 20,663.02, +56.09 (0.27%)
NASDAQ: 6,055.13, +43.89 (0.73%)
S&P 500: 2,365.72, +8.69 (0.37%)
NYSE Composite: 11,434.06, +10.53 (0.09%)

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Wall Street Tumbles Most This Year; Treasuries, Gold Rally

Sure enough, being the contrary indicator for which Money Daily has become legendary, as soon as this blog issued the "all clear," circa the past two days - citing that the Fed has Wall Street's back - then the bottom falls completely out of the market.

While today's massive declines could be nothing more than a case of jitters over the Washington establishment's fixation on making President Trump's life a living hell, or, a simple matter of profit taking, there's some indication that both may be partially true.

As usual, with everything related to stocks and finance since roughly the year 2000, there's insufficient information upon which to make a decisive call. One day's worth of declines by no means indicates anything fundamentally wrong, and it's likely that this current bout of market indigestion will blow over with the next data release.

Moreover, given that the mainstream media is chock full of creeps, fabricators and liars, it wouldn't be beyond the pale for financial media to be right in the middle of the "fake news" mix. To the point, the headline on Yahoo Finance at today's market close screams, "Stocks tumble as Trump worries Wall Street," as if it's the President himself causing consternation among international financiers, when in fact, it is the news media itself promulgating questionable narratives surrounding the President and his administration.

Thus, there may be something more compelling afoot. Perhaps some of the more recent data releases haven't been particularly rosy, or maybe somebody deep inside the global financial establishment knows something of which the general public isn't keenly aware. That insiders would know more than the public is undeniably true; whether or not there's something big about to occur - and this was just cover for a deeper dive - is a matter of great conjecture.

On the surface, that doesn't seem to be the case. Tuesday's releases showed that capacity utilization and industrial production both beat expectations, but housing starts and building permits missed the mark. Wednesday's release of crude inventories (a drawdown) and mortgage applications (off by 4.1%) shouldn't have catalyzed the market into this kind of paroxysm.

What we do know is that the dollar index (97.456) fell again today (fifth straight decline) and has been below 100 for a full month. That's sent gold soaring (up nearly two percent today), with silver tagging along, though without as much gusto (+0.73%, 16.87/oz.). A falling dollar should be good for US companies, though that correlation hasn't always held true, because US imports in other countries' currencies would cost less.

We also know that today's losses were the worst of the year for the major indices and Treasuries were rallying, with the 10-year yield falling to 2.22% and the two-year moving down to 1.24%.

Thus, the crystal ball remains cloudy. Thursday's market action may be more telling. It's never too late to take a profit, nor is it ever too early to cut losses. Maybe Wall Street has come to its senses.

At the Close, 5/17/17:
Dow: 20,606.93, -372.82 (-1.78%)
NASDAQ: 6,011.24, -158.63 (-2.57%)
S&P 500: 2,357.03, -43.64 (-1.82%)
NYSE Composite: 11,423.54, -182.95 (-1.58%)

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Political Theater Weakening The Dollar; Silver, Gold Up

After setting new record all-time highs (again, and again, and again) yesterday, core investors in the S&P 500 took a back seat to the NASDAQ nutcases who pushed the index to another record close.

While this is beginning to be reminiscent of the 1999-2000 tech bubble and bust, we're still in the bubble stage, so hang on to whatever you're not trading. If you must, get some protection in cheap NASDAQ put options to protect your position.

In case you're not invested in stocks or are more interested in baseball, the NBA playoffs or the current political circus in Washington, a close eye on the dollar index might be a suggested tonic, which goes well with either gin or vodka.

Wiht the dollar index down, gold and silver registered nice gains on the day, but, as soon as the crooked dealers at the COMEX get wind of it, that will change. Gold and silver bugs keep hoping that the current fiat system implodes, which would likely enrich them, though that's an old conclusion not necessarily in order these days.

Taking close to a one percent hit on the day (could it possibly be because even Republicans are now openly in opposition to President Trump, along with the requisite fake outrage from Democrats?) the political climate in Washington is beginning to sour experienced traders and geo-political watchers, mostly because it doesn't take a break. The opposition to the current sitting president is outrageous and loud, and the fear is that something is going to break, if not the President's tweeting pattern, then maybe blood vessels on house minority leader Nancy Pelosi's forehead.

Then again, majority leader Paul Ryan's sound bites on the "Trump gave Russia top secret info" fake news has to make one wonder just what the deep state has on him. He looks like a square guy, but he acts like a Democrat, unless, of course, Trump pushes through a healthcare reform bill or something along those lines. Then he's all glad-handing and giddy. The guy has no political future, and, unless the press and the Democrats begin conducting themselves in more decorous manners, neither does the country.

At the Close, 5/16/17:
Dow: 20,979.75, -2.19 (-0.01%)
NASDAQ: 6,169.87, +20.20 (0.33%)
S&P 500: 2,400.67, -1.65 (-0.07%)
NYSE Composite: 11,606.49, -7.75 (-0.07%)