Dow, S&P 500 Close at New All-Time Highs; Disney Profit Rises, Will Add to Dow Surge; AMD Punished for High Capex

One thing that can be said about Wall Street: it loves a party.

Stocks were simply the rage on Tuesday, extending the across-the-board rally to four straight sessions, with the Dow and S&P posting record closing prices. The S&P made a decisive move forward, surpassing the June 2nd high of 7,609.78 without so much as making a pit stop in the 7,600 range, closing at 7,736.52. That certainly was a pretty loud cha-ching for SPY options players.

The beat goes on Wednesday after another Dow component, Disney (DIS), delivered an EPS surprise, reporting $2.06, well ahead of the estimated $1.85, while revenue of $25.25 billion came in just below expectations, at $25.41 billion. The profit boost sent shares of the entertainment monolith up 3.5 percent in pre-market trading.

After the close on Tuesday, these companies reported 2nd quarter results:
Advance Micro Devices (AMD) - top and bottom beat, but a 31% decline in gaming segment and high capex send shares down more than 7%
Opendoor (OPEN) - swing and a miss on EPS and revenue sending shares down 6% pre-market
Booking Holdings (BKNG) - top and bottom beat, record shareholder returns; stock up more than 6% prior to the bell

On Wednesday, before the open:
Shopify (SHOP) - solid beat, shares higher by 23% before the bell
Uber (UBER) - EPS beat, revenue miss, shares down 3%
Eli Lilly (LLY) - big wins on earnings and revenue, shares up 5%

Since the beginning of the rally last Thursday, here's the scorecard for the three majors, roughly:

Dow: +2480 points
S&P 500: +420 points
NASDAQ: +2200 points

Not bad for four days.

At the Close, Tuesday, August 4, 2026: Dow: 54,085.88, +907.47 (+1.71%) NASDAQ: 26,584.99, +671.10 (+2.59%) S&P 500: 7,736.52, +136.02 (+1.79%) NYSE Composite: 24,462.87, +207.34 (+0.85%)

Dow Makes New All-Time High; S&P Should Surpass Previous High Today; NASDAQ Lags, But May Soon Out-Perform; Hormuz Open? Oil Lower

Stocks powered higher on Monday, extending the rally to tree straight sessions in all of the majors, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record all-time closing high.

The Dow posted a gain of nearly 700 points, betting that already solid quarterly results would be matched or bettered by companies about to report. The Dow components that have already reported include JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Visa (V), Chevron (CVX), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Proctor & Gamble (PG), Boeing (BA), and Goldman Sachs (GS).

Queuing up for the Tuesday session, Merck (MRK), McDonald's (MCD), and Caterpillar (CAT) released second quarter results prior to the open.

Merck (MRK) reported a reported adjusted EPS of $0.00 (beating the estimated loss of -$0.257) and generated reported revenue of $16.61 billion, which surpassed the estimated $16.37 billion. The company's financial metrics were heavily impacted by a $5.7 billion one-time acquisition charge tied to Terns Pharmaceuticals, equivalent to a $2.31 per share hit that pulled down GAAP performance. Investors looked past lower guidance to send shares roughly one percent higher in pre-market trading.

McDonald's (MCD) reported Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $3.38, beating the estimated $3.321, while its reported revenue of $7.099 billion missed the estimated $7.126 billion. The stock was essentially flat prior to the opening bell.

Caterpillar (CAT) soared, beating top and bottom line estimates. Caterpillar reported a major beat for Q2 2026, delivering an adjusted EPS of $8.17 compared to the estimated $6.197, and generating revenue of $20.543 billion against expectations of approximately $19.199 billion. Following the blowout quarter, Caterpillar lifted its full-year 2026 revenue growth target to a mid-to-high-teens percentage range, up from its previous projection of low-double-digit growth. Caterpillar's stock was seen rising by as much as 12% in the pre-market.

At more then $800 per share, CAT is a heavyweight on the Dow and has sent Dow Futures soaring

After Monday's close, Palantir (PLTR) reported blowout earnings, sending shares up 15%, helping fuel a strong recovery on the NASDAQ.

At around 8:30 am ET, Dow futures are up 665 points, NASDAQ futures are ahead by 317, with S&P futures rising 26 points.

The S&P 500 is just nine points shy of a record closing high, which looks to be well withing range on Tuesday. The NASDAQ continues to lag, but, after a sharp selloff on fears of AI infrastructure overspending, bargain hunters are sure to step in and boost prices for hyperscalers like Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms and others. If current trends remain in place, the NASDAQ should surpass its own All-time high of 27,093.90 within weeks. It is roughly a 5% move.

Adding to the happy mood on Wall Street is the situation in the Middle East, with President Trump insisting that peace talks with Iran are moving forward, despite denials from the Iranians. In any case, the hostilities have diminished recently, with no major strikes by either side since last week. For its part, Iran continues negotiations with Oman and Qatar, seeking resolution to the logjam at the Strait of Hormuz.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bassent has chimed in, noting that a deal to open the strait to oil and other commercial traffic could come as early as tomorrow (or maybe today). How much of what the administration touts as progress is a matter of some conjecture. The administration has repeatedly talked "deal or no deal" over the past three months. The usual situation emanating from the proclamations and narrative-building is for negotiations to fail at the last minute, sending the region back to wartime positioning and oil spiking higher. Whether or not this is another head fake by Trump and his staff remains to be seen.

For now, markets have bought in, sending stocks higher, treasury yields and the price of oil lower.

Wall Street and the stock-trading Capitol Hill gang are on a roll.

At the Close, Monday, August 3, 2026:
Dow: 53,178.41, +693.38 (+1.32%)
NASDAQ: 25,913.90, +540.04 (+2.13%)
S&P 500: 7,600.50, +110.78 (+1.48%)
NYSE Composite: 24,255.53, +147.98 (+0.61%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Markets Lack Direction; Employment in Focus; Iran-U.S. Spat Continues; Gold, Silver Punished; Oil Higher

The past week was odd, to the point of being mostly inscrutable. After the FOMC reveal (no change) and press conference (no guidance) on Wednesday, stocks sold off like it was October 1929, but then staged an enormous rally Thursday, as if the events from the day before didn't even exist.

Hard to say, and even harder to prove, it appeared as if some people with large sums of money were playing games in deep pools, fooling the rest of the participants into making financial miscues. Both the downdraft on Wednesday and the upshot Thursday might as well be disregarded. They cancelled each other out.

Even with another one percent move higher on Friday, the NASDAQ remains moribund, down 6.35% from the June 2nd high (27,093.90). What looked on Thursday like an extended relief rally, might better be described as a "stick save, and a beauty", as the NASDAQ was less than 1/2 percent away from the "official" correction designation of down 10%. Can't have that.

The back-and-forth in the Middle East continues to the point of aggravation, the U.S. repeatedly saying a deal is close before resuming military actions against Iran. It's a monstrously bad situation that should not have happened in the first place, and, secondly, seems to be without any hope for a peaceful resolution. Thank the neocons and a completely corrupt congress and executive branch for yet another endless war.

Stocks

The major indices ended what was a two-week slide, led down by the NASDAQ, but there are few indications that this market is healthy. It's one of the more erratic structures of recent years, heavily politicized, highly mechanized, extremely overvalued, and without clear direction.

More big (and small) names will be reporting second quarter results this week, one of the busiest of the season, dominated by mid-week reports from Dow components:

Monday: (before open) Marriott International (MAR), Avista (AVA), Sportradar (SRAD); (after close) Palantir (PLTR), Vertex (VRTX), Snap Inc. (SNAP), Clorox (CLX)

Tuesday: (before open) Merck (MRK), Pfizer (PFE), McDonald's (MCD), Caterpillar (CAT), Wayfair (W); (after close) AMD (AMD), Opendoor (OPEN), Kratos (KTOS), Allegiant (ALGT), Booking Holdings (BKNG)

Wednesday: (before open) Shopify (SHOP), Uber (UBER), Eli Lilly (LLY), Walt Disney (DIS), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Riot (RIOT); (after close) Sandisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC), AppLovin (APP), Mercado Libre (MELI), Beyond Meat (BYND)

Thursday: (before open) Fiserve (FISV), Celsius ((CELH), Conoco Phillips (COP); (after close) AirBnB (ABNB), Red Cat (RCAT), Draft Kings (DKNG)

Friday: (before open) Wenday's (WEN), UnderArmour (UAA), Vistra Energy (VST)

Data releases include Monday's ISM Manufacturing PMI; Tuesday, Balance of Trade (Imports/Exports), Factory Orders, and JOLTS. Wednesday: ADP Employment Report for July, S&P PMI; Thursday: Jobless Claims, which leads into the big finale, Friday's July Non-Farm Payrolls from the BLS.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
06/26/2026	3.70	3.70	3.75	3.83	3.89	3.94	3.94
07/02/2026	3.70	3.73	3.81	3.82	3.91	3.98	3.96
07/10/2026	3.71	3.74	3.81	3.85	3.94	3.99	4.06
07/17/2026	3.73	3.75	3.80	3.85	3.91	3.96	4.01
07/24/2026	3.80	3.88	3.95	3.96	4.04	4.08	4.14
07/31/2026	3.78	3.80	3.85	3.83	3.92	3.98	4.08

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
06/26/2026	4.07	4.09	4.12	4.23	4.38	4.87	4.87
07/02/2026	4.14	4.16	4.23	4.35	4.49	4.99	4.98
07/10/2026	4.21	4.22	4.30	4.42	4.56	5.08	5.06
07/17/2026	4.18	4.21	4.28	4.40	4.55	5.07	5.06
07/24/2026	4.33	4.36	4.43	4.55	4.69	5.18	5.16
07/31/2026	4.28	4.34	4.45	4.59	4.75	5.28	5.27

Nobody wants long-dates treasuries, with the 10-year yield now topping 4.75% and 30-year bonds yielding 5.27%.

Spreads continue to blow out, with the full spectrum at its highest level of the year.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37
7/24: +36
7/31: +47

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133
7/24: +136
7/31: +149

Oil/Gas

August WTI crude futures closed out the week at $86.80, down from last week's closeout at $90.47 on the NY Mercantile Exchange, though still at the high end of the recent range. Military action in the Mideast region continues to drive oil prices higher. $100 oil is probably in the cards unless some kind of agreement between Iran, the U.S. and Israel is reached, so probably not very soon.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.07 last week and $4.07 this week, as the Middle East tinderbox exploded with military strikes throughout the region, the MOU between the U.S. and Iran completely shattered, fake talk of a deal continuing as the region devolves into a unmanageable quagmire.

Reserves have been substantially drained by major economies around the world to keep prices under control, but they have largely reached bottoms. With reserves exhausted, conditions are ripe for a return to $5 gas in the U.S., as the president completely disregards the welfare of U.S. citizens. Prices should reach near-record levels in coming weeks as there seems to be no path toward resolution other than annihilation. It continues to be a sorry state of affairs.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.66 (+0.03)
Washington: $5.13 (+0.03)
Indiana: $3.62 (+0.12)
Oklahoma: $3.64 (-0.10)
Mississippi: $3.63 (-0.01)
Florida: $3.80 (-0.15)
Illinois: $4.34 (+0.09)
Pennsylvania: $4.20 (-0.02)
New York: $4.19 (-0.01)
Maryland: $4.13 (-0.03)
Michigan: $4.36 (+0.15)
Texas (lowest): $3.56 (-0.12)
Georgia: $3.84 (-0.07)

On Sunday, April 2nd, there are twenty-four (24) states with average prices at or above $4.00, with 24 below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.45) and Alaska ($4.75), with two above $5 (California and Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past nine weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging below $4.00 ($3.64-3.91) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region a close second, prices ranging from $3.70 to $4.05. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest. Indiana ($3.62) lost its spot as the lowest, handing it over to Texas, as the moratorium on gasoline taxes in Indiana has expired.

Bitcoin

This week: $63,049.68
Last week: $64,633.18
2 weeks ago: $64,539.98
6 months ago: $78,766.63
One year ago: $113,730.60
Five years ago: $44,596.43

Bitcoin remained flat for the fourth straight week as the CLARITY act remains stalled in the Senate, the bandits in congress haven't fully endorsed the bill and it faces an uncertain future.

Bitcoin and crypto in general remain among the worst investments of 2026. Bitcoin is down 28% year-to-date.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 70.23; last week: 69.63

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 7/2: $4,187.30
Gold price 7/10: $4,128.90
Gold price 7/17: $4,023.00
Gold price 7/24: $4,055.70
Gold price 7/31: $4,098.60

Silver price 7/2: $62.81
Silver price 7/10: $60.30
Silver price 7/17: $56.22
Silver price 7/24: $58.49
Silver price 7/31: $57.78

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 7/2: $4,122.76
Gold 7/10: $4,119.70
Gold 7/17: $4,016.89
Gold 7/24: $4,052.00
Gold 7/31: $4,042.00

Silver 7/2: $60.93
Silver 7/10: $59.85
Silver 7/17: $55.91
Silver 7/24: $58.19
ilver: 7/31: $57.55

Holders and fans of real money were punished again last week.

The gold:silver ratio suggests silver may be a good play at these levels.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	55.00	70.00	63.95	64.80
1 oz silver bar:	64.81	73.47	68.02	67.64
1 oz gold coin:	4208.29	4450.00	4281.77	4275.96
1 oz gold bar:	4213.49	4346.74	4259.65	4248.49

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) took another hit, closing the week at $66.10, a downside move of $3.42 per troy ounce from the July 26 price of $69.52.

WEEKEND WRAP

Everything is a narrative these days. Anybody finding real value is either lucky, cognizant of inside information, or of genius intelligence.

At the Close, Friday, July 31, 2026:
Dow: 52,485.03, +276.97 (+0.53%)
NASDAQ: 25,373.85(+251.68), +251.68 (1.00%)
S&P 500: 7,489.72, +52.09 (+0.70%)
NYSE Composite: 24,107.55, -30.75 (-0.13%)

For the Week:
Dow: +537.78 (+1.04%)
NASDAQ: +398.03 (+1.59%)
S&P 500: +77.74 (+1.05%)
NYSE Composite: +116.65 (+0.49%)
Dow Transports: +1436.86 (6.39%)

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NASDAQ Ends Six-Session Losing Streak with Big Rally; Amazon Higher on Solid Quarter; Apple Spanked After Missing EPS Estimates

The NASDAQ ended a six-session losing streak Thursday, posting one of the best gains of the year, up 2.78% on the day. Following its lead, the Dow, S&P, and NYSE Composite added solid gains.

The rally was important, as the NASDAQ had touched correction level, down 9.78% from its most recent high. Still, the one-day rise doesn't erase the losses since June 2nd, down 7.28% over that span.

Whatever caused the sudden shift in sentiment may never be known, other than deep-pocketed interests wanting to keep the "all-good" narrative going.

After the bell on Thursday, Amazon (AMZN) reported strong second quarter results, investors overlooking their AI expense to reward the company with a 10% move higher into Friday's pre-market. Apple (AAPL) also reported Thursday, but delivered sub-par results, especially in their Chinese enterprise. Shares have been spanked seven to eight percent lower Friday morning.

Energy giants, ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) reported Friday morning. ExxonMobil beat on revenue, but fell short on EPS, leaving the stock down 1-2 percent heading toward the opening bell. Chevron did better, beating top and bottom. Shares are roughly two percent higher.

In the Middle East, conditions continue to tend toward continued escalation, with Iran reportedly hitting Kuwaiti bases overnight, sending WTI crude oil over $85/barrel.

Futures are off earlier highs, with Dow futures up 189; NASDAQ futures up 245, and S&P futures ahead by 17. Gold and silver have been beaten down again on futures markets. Nothing new there.

The easy path for stocks is always upward, but there doesn't seem to be sufficient energy to move significantly to the upside. The NASDAQ, despite the strong one-day event, remains a dangerous place to be and nobody knows the level of manipulation being supplied by government and institutional plumbers.

At the Close, Thursday, July 30, 2026:
Dow: 52,208.06, +613.92 (+1.19%)
NASDAQ: 25,122.18, +679.24 (+2.78%)
S&P 500: 7,437.63, +121.48 (+1.66%)
NYSE Composite: 24,138.29, +193.32 (+0.81%)

Quiet Fed Chairman Warsh, FOMC Send Stocks Reeling; Market Uncertain, Futures Deceptive, NASDAQ Down 9.78%; GDP Miss, +1.5%

Was it something he said?

Just as Fed Chairman Keven Warsh was finishing up his press conference Wednesday afternoon, stocks nosedived, making the final hour of trading look like somebody had touched off a nuclear bomb.

Nothing quite as severe had happened. What did occur on Wednesday afternoon, ironically, was nothing, nothing other than the FOMC deciding to do nothing regarding the federal funds target interest rate, keeping the range steady at 3.50-3.75%, right where it has been since the FOMC meeting in December, 2025.

At 2:00 pm ET, the committee released the following statement:

The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 – 3 vote:

The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.

Voting against the monetary policy action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.

The brevity of the statement itself reflected the newfound policy of the Warsh Fed to be concise, factual, and devoid of innuendo or speculation. Notably, the policy statement leaned toward making the Middle East conflict and assorted supply chain disruptions the scapegoat for inflation. That point was brought home by Warsh during the perss conference, his measured response suggesting that although the recent bout of inflation was primarily cause not by monetary factors, but by market reactions to outside, geo-political decisions made by the White House, though he did not name any specific cause other than the 2000 pandemic and he recent spat with Iran.

Chairman Warsh is proving to be, after just two FOMC meetings, a crafty spokesman and a measured decision maker. Keeping rates steady over the past two meetings while offering no advance guidance on Fed policy prompted a hailstorm of questioning from the financial press, to the point of Bloomberg's Michael McKee asking, "what are you waiting for?"

Unaffected by the tone of questioning, Warsh handled the press with a delicate balance of statesmanship and reservation. While the press corps continued probing for answers or direction, Warsh batted them down, repeatedly expressing his commitment to keeping policy decisions firmly within the body of the FOMC, offering no advance indications on the direction of that policy.

Warsh's steadfast refusal to allow speculation over Fed policy has the press in a tizzy. Since the days of Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell giving the press plenty of meat on which to chew regarding the Fed's intentions, reporters have become accustomed to having clues dropped from the Chairman's podium and are now frustrated at Warsh's refusal to offer any hints or speculation on where Federal Reserve policy might be headed.

Perhaps it wasn't what Warsh said at the presser that sent markets reeling, but what he failed to say that engendered Wednesday's sudden market collapse. Maybe it was the realization that three board members had voted to hike rates, which turns out to be just about the only indication of where the Fed might be headed. Given that the market as a whole would prefer the Fed lowering the federal funds target rate, the thought that some members of the FOMC might prefer hiking instead sends chills through the structure.

That's likely what happened: Market participants, hoping for a lifeline of hope from the Chairman, bid stocks higher after the decision announcement and through the press conference. When none appeared, they did the only logical thing. They sold.

Reaction in international markets overnight and into the European session has been mostly positive, and stock futures are pointing to a higher open. Given the ferocity of Wednesday's bolt to the downside late in the session, the sudden jerk higher in stock futures should be regarded with caution. After all, the NASDAQ has dropped six straight sessions and nine of the last 10, with Wednesday's 600-point slide in the final hour of trading perhaps the most violent move of recent memory. It does not seem at all logical that stocks would suddenly reverse course and head higher. The futures have been reliable in at least one regard: as contrary indicators of the cash market. Higher at the open and lower at the close has become a trademark of the recent decline, one that has left the NASDAQ down 9.78% from the June 2 high (27,093.90).

Rounding out, that puts te NASDAQ squarely in correction territory, even by the widely-accepted 10% textbook qualifier.

After the close Wednesday, Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META) released second quarter results, with Mr. Softie getting the better of it, up nine percent in pre-market trading. META, which beat on revenue but missed on EPS, wasn't treated as kindly, the stock sent reeling, down nine percent overnight and into Thursday's pre-market, which giveth, then taketh away.

In a pertinent development, the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.5% in the second quarter of 2026 (April–June), according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ advance estimate, released at 8:30 am ET Thursday morning. This was weaker than expected, with economists anticipating 2.1% growth. That reading should give investors pause. If the economy is indeed slowing, those three dissenters at the FOMC may be incorrect in assessing a need to tighten. Should economic conditions continue to devolve, sending rates lower - easing - may be the correct course, which, at this juncture, may be soothing to Wall Street bulls.

That didn't seem to faze markets in the least. At 8:45 am ET, Dow futures are up 178; NASDAQ futures are higher by 454 points, and S&P futures are showing a 48-point upside.

Gold and silver are slightly higher while WTI crude oil is steadying around $84-85/barrel.

The takeaway from the FOMC standstill has markets standing on the head of a pin. While a recovery in tech stocks may be developing, it's likely to be very short-lived. Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) report after the close.

There's plenty to be confused about within this market and the market loathes uncertainty.

At the Close, Wednesday, July 29, 2026: Dow: 51,594.14, -1,153.18 (-2.19%) NASDAQ: 24,442.94, -433.97 (-1.74%) S&P 500: 7,316.15, -112.63 (-1.52%) NYSE Composite: 23,944.97, -284.70 (-1.18%)