U.S. midterm elections are November 3rd. That date deserves attention as the calendar puts us at less than six months away.
Individual winners and losers in the bi-annual popularity contest may not matter as much as which party will have a majority in the House and Senate, and, in the end it's one big uni-party, from a tactical perspective inside the D.C. beltway, the results offer more than just optics. Partisan politics being the preferred order of the U.S. system, policy will emerge from majority rule and chair positions on important committees.
According to reportage by The Conversation, the party holding the presidency has lost seats in 18 of the last 20 encounters, an eighty-year span beginning in 1946. For the MAGA cohort, this sends bad vibes which may result in Mr. Trump's third impeachment attempt by Democrats, though the most salient condition obtained from Republicans losing their razor-thin majority in the House is that any new or proposed legislation would likely be dead on arrival.
A flip in the House also neutralizes the Senate, no matter which party ends up with a majority. For U.S. business interests, this is a total win. Whenever official Washington goes into gridlock, the prospect of at least two years without government meddling into the affairs of companies large and small elicits loud howls of joy. If new highs on the stock market are a goal, vote Democrat!
The only times a sitting president's party gained seats were in 1998 (Clinton, +5) and 2002 (Bush, +8), back-to-back wins, one for each party. In those years, the presidential approval rating was exceedingly high. Clinton was at 66%, Bush at 63%. Since then, no president has polled higher than 45% heading into midterms (Obama, first term, 2010). For all the noise and clamor over the upcoming vote, it looks to be pretty much settled that Republicans are doomed. President Trump's most recent average approval rating is a meager 41% and the generic congressional vote favors Democrats over Republicans, 48.6%-42.6%.
Doomsday cometh.
Surprising nobody, the White House and the Republican election machinery is fully engaged toward reversing the trend, but it seems a fool’s errand. Unless economic and foreign policy conditions soon change radically, Democrats stand to turn the tables in November.
Shiller PE: 42.15
Roughly speaking, the S&P 500 would need to rise another 285 points in order for the Shiller PE to surpass the all-time high of 44.18. Given that the S&P is already up 567.34 points (8.29%) year-to-date one might assume that this particular "mother of all bubbles" would make the grade some time within the next few months.
The juggernaut that is the stock market seems to have no limit, no wall of worry to climb, and not much in the way of historical perspective. Because that record high occurred in December of 1999, market historians will note that in the first few months of 2000, the NASDAQ took an abrupt turn. The late 1990s and into the first three months of 2000 marked a period of rapid growth in U.S. technology stock prices, driven by speculation and heavy investment in startups with little to no profits.
Somewhat the same could be said of the current environment. Where the 1990s had the internet boom and dot-com stocks, the 2020s has embraced AI as the next great thing. Leading tech companies - Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Google, Apple, et. al., are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in data centers, infrastructure, and power plants, bent on riding the crest of the AI wave.
There will be no stopping stocks reaching record after record over the next six months and probably further into 2027. Despite plenty of evidence that the U.S. economy is a running on fumes. Foreign policy under Trump has been an unmitigated disaster. Wall Street doesn't care, so long as more money is directed into stocks, ETFs, IRAs, retirement accounts, and mutual funds.
Inflation, as measured by the CPI, will fan the flames even more. Asset inflation always leads consumer inflation, and this time is no different. Tuesday morning, the BLS released April CPI. Here's what they said:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after rising 0.9 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.The index for energy rose 3.8 percent in April, accounting for over forty percent of the monthly all items increase. The shelter index also increased in April, rising 0.6 percent. The index for food increased 0.5 percent over the month as the index for food at home rose 0.7 percent and the index for food away from home increased 0.2 percent.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in April. Indexes that increased over the month include household furnishings and operations, airline fares, personal care, apparel, and education. Conversely, the indexes for new vehicles, communication, and medical care were among the major indexes that decreased in April.
The all items index rose 3.8 percent for the 12 months ending April, after rising 3.3 percent for the 12 months ending March. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.8 percent over the year, following a 2.6 percent increase over the 12 months ending March. The energy index increased 17.9 percent for the 12 months ending April. The food index increased 3.2 percent over the last year.
The major damage from Trump's blustering and blundering in the Mid East, all at the behest of his pal, Bibi Netanyahu, hasn't even begun to be assessed. The knee-jerk reaction comes in the form of stock futures, which didn't skyrocket the moment the news was announced as they usually do, but barely budged. Some indication that Wall Street isn't exactly giddy over prospects for higher and higher consumer prices can be inferred and a mini-rally in gold and silver offers more evidence that the ongoing rally may be interrupted for a day or so.
Gold hit a one-month high on Monday, but silver was the real deal, making a breakout move over 80.70, the most recent high (April 17). Kitko marked the close in New York at 85.98, though other sources have it at 86.10. Either way, the move was expected and significant, pointing the silver price - as maligned and testy as it is - toward the next milestone, $93, and then, beyond. With the usually strong summer months in focus for precious metals, a slingshot move higher may now be in the cards. Both gold and silver sold off overnight, but th pair is rallying heading into the U.S. sessions.
As 9:00 am ET approached stock futures began moving higher, sending Dow futures marginally into positive territory. S&P futures remained subdued, down 20 points, while NASDAQ futures seek a pullback, down 218 heading toward the opening bell.
There were no big interests reporting earnings late Monday or early Tuesday, though hims|hers (HIMS), purveyors of questionable adult products like virility enhancers for men and perfumed soaps for women, went flaccid, dropping 16% pre-open on a first quarter earnings miss and discouraging guidance. Sorry, honey, not tonight.
Silver miner, First Majestic (AG), continued strong performance with an earnings beat and solid guidance. The stock is flat heading into the open. On an earnings beat and raised guidance, JD.com (JD) wins the morning, up about one percent in pre-market trading.
The CPI reading may only disrupt money flows for as little as a few hours or possibly a day or two, as PPI is the next hurdle, the April figures due out tomorrow.
Otherwise, buy the dip?
At the Close, Monday, May 11, 2026:
Dow: 49,704.47, +95.31 (+0.19%)
NASDAQ: 26,274.13, +27.05 (+0.10%)
S&P 500: 7,412.84, +13.91 (+0.19%)
NYSE Composite: 22,970.77, +28.62 (+0.12%)