Middle East War Escalates as Israel, U.S., Iran Trade Missiles and Bombs; U.S. Stock Futures Show Heavy Losses in Pre-Market; Stocks Lower Globally

Monday's stock market movement - from early lows to closing highs - should be ample proof that Wall Street's "markets" are not only casinos, but rigged casinos. The Epstein Class elitists that control these markets can move them in any direction they please through the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), New York Fed trading desk, the Plunge Protection Team (PPT, otherwise known as the President's Working Group on Financial Markets), and the vast holdings of the Vanguard Group, BlackRock, and other companies with enormous Assets Under Management (AUM).

These folks can move individual stocks, ETFs, or entire indices in whatever direction they please. They can make people rich or poor in a matter of minutes, though the long-range aspect is for stocks to always tend in the upwards direction, ensuring that everybody, from individual investors with 401k or retirement accounts, to massive funds and institutions, enjoys a certain "wealth effect." No matter what happens, be the news good, bad, or indifferent, stocks tend to rise in price, not to be confused with value.

In any case, with a fairly significant war breaking out in the Middle East over the weekend, the closing prices on the Dow, NASDAQ, S&P and other indices would have one believe that it's no big deal. Well, for Monday, at least, and only in the U.S. Stock markets in Asia and Europe were hit hard on Monday, and are tanking again overnight and into Tuesday morning. Germany's DAX, to offer just one instance, was down 2.4% on Monday and is down another 3.6% mid-afternoon in Berlin.

Tuesday may be a different story for the U.S., falling in line with the rest of the world. With less than an hour to the opening bell, stock futures are down in a massive manner. Dow futures are down 861 (-1.76%); NASDAQ futures are lower by 537 points (-2.16%); and, S&P futures are down 115 (-1.68%).

Since stocks are getting battered in the futures market, its tradition for the COMEX/LBMA riggers to flush precious metals down the proverbial toilet. On the spot market, silver fell from a high of 91.45 to a low of 77.87 overnight and is hovering around $82 as of this writing. Gold, which most people rush to buy during times of crisis (like now), dropped overnight from a high of $5,380.80 to a low of $5,076.20, and is holding around $5,135.

In Shanghai, spot silver is $92.89, but gold is much closer to the Western price, probably because gold buyers in China, India, Singapore and any other place that isn't being bombed are more than happy to buy gold at basement bottom prices.

So, the question for people who actually have skin in the game is, as always, whether to buy, sell, or hold. One cannot be too sure of anything under the current fog of war, intertwined with the usual mainstream media censorship and propaganda. You're on your own, as is your investment advisor and anybody else touting this or that next best thing.

With U.S. markets set to open in less than half an hour, here's a summary of the two major stories, courtesy of Claude AI:

Anthropic "Supply Chain Risk" Designation – News Summary

Compiled by Claude AI, March 3, 2026

What Happened

• On Feb. 27, 2026, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared Anthropic a "Supply-Chain Risk to National Security," directing that no military contractor, supplier, or partner may conduct commercial activity with Anthropic. (CBS News)
• President Trump simultaneously ordered all federal agencies to cease use of Anthropic technology, with a six-month phase-out for agencies like the Pentagon already using it. (Axios)
• The dispute centered on Anthropic's refusal to drop two safeguards: prohibiting Claude from being used for mass domestic surveillance of Americans, and prohibiting its use in fully autonomous weapons. (Anthropic Statement)

Legal Questions

• Legal experts say Hegseth's statements exceed his statutory authority. The supply-chain risk designation under 10 USC 3252 is a narrow tool designed to protect sensitive military procurement — not to resolve contract disputes. (Just Security)
• A social media post does not automatically make the designation official — the government must complete a formal risk assessment and notify Congress first. (TechCrunch)
• Anthropic called the designation "legally unsound" and vowed to challenge it in court. (Anthropic Statement)

Industry Reaction

• Hundreds of tech workers from OpenAI, Slack, IBM, Cursor, and Salesforce Ventures signed an open letter urging the DoD to withdraw the designation and calling on Congress to examine whether use of these extraordinary authorities against an American company is appropriate. (TechCrunch)
• OpenAI announced a Pentagon deal hours after the Anthropic blacklisting — but CEO Sam Altman said his agreement contains the same two limitations on domestic surveillance and autonomous weapons that Anthropic had insisted upon. (Fortune)

Behind the Scenes

• According to Axios, a senior Pentagon official was on the phone offering Anthropic a deal at the very moment Hegseth was tweeting the supply-chain risk designation — and that deal would have required allowing collection of Americans' geolocation, web browsing data, and personal financial information purchased from data brokers. (Axios)

Business Impact

• Even if Anthropic prevails in court, analysts warn the business damage may already be done — it could take years to resolve legally, and in the meantime every Fortune 500 company with Pentagon exposure may question whether using Claude is worth the risk. (Fortune)

Sources:

CBS News – Hegseth Declares Anthropic a Supply Chain Risk
Axios – Trump Moves to Blacklist Anthropic
Anthropic – Official Statement
Just Security – What the Designation Does and Doesn't Mean
TechCrunch – Pentagon Moves to Designate Anthropic
TechCrunch – Tech Workers Urge DOD to Withdraw Label
Fortune – OpenAI Sweeps In to Snag Pentagon Contract
KTVU FOX 2 – SF AI Firm Declared Supply Chain Risk

US-Israel-Iran War – News Summary

Compiled March 3, 2026 — Situation is rapidly evolving

Note: This is a developing crisis. Details are subject to change as new information emerges.

How It Started

• On Saturday, February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched a coordinated joint military assault on Iran, codenamed Operation Roaring Lion (Israel) and Operation Epic Fury (US). The stated goals included neutralizing Iran's military leadership and achieving regime change. (Wikipedia)
• The strikes were originally planned for Friday night but were delayed until Saturday morning after intelligence allowed for the elimination of additional targets. (Times of Israel)
• Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US launched a preemptive strike because it knew Israel was going to act, and that Iranian retaliation against US forces was inevitable. (CNBC)
• However, Pentagon briefers told congressional staff that Iran was not planning to strike US forces unless Israel attacked first — undercutting the White House's "imminent threat" justification. (CNN)

Khamenei Killed

• Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the US-Israeli strikes. Iranian President Pezeshkian called it a "declaration of open war on Muslims." (Al Jazeera)
• Under Iran's constitution, a provisional three-person leadership council assumed power while the Assembly of Experts convenes to select a new supreme leader. (CNBC)
• China's Foreign Minister condemned the killing as "unacceptable" and called it "blatant killing of a sovereign leader and incitement of regime change." (CNN)

Scale of the Strikes

• Israel's air force dropped more than 1,200 munitions across 24 of Iran's 31 provinces. (Al Jazeera)
• Targets included Iran's state broadcaster headquarters, parliament building, IRGC command facilities, and naval assets in the Gulf of Oman. (Wikipedia)
• Mossad and Israeli special forces also reportedly conducted a ground operation inside Iran. (Wikipedia)

Iranian Retaliation

• Iran's IRGC launched attacks on 27 US military bases across the Middle East as well as Israeli targets, striking assets across nine countries: Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and others. (Al Jazeera)
• Two drones struck the US Embassy in Riyadh, causing a limited fire and minor damage. (Al Jazeera)
• An Iranian drone struck the British RAF base at Akrotiri in Cyprus. Explosions were reported in Doha, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Larnaca. (Wikipedia)
• Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and struck energy infrastructure across the Gulf. An oil tanker attempting passage was struck and reported sinking. (CNN)

Casualties

• As of March 3, at least 787 people have been killed in Iran, including a reported 148 students at a girls' elementary school in Minab, southern Iran. Israel says it is unaware of operating in that area. (Al Jazeera)
• Six US service members have been killed. Three US fighter jets crashed in Kuwait; all crew survived. (Washington Post)
• At least 11 have been killed in Israel, with additional deaths reported in Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE. (Al Jazeera)
• Trump said US casualties could be "quite a bit higher" than current figures, citing Pentagon projections. (CNN)

Conflict Widens to Lebanon

• Hezbollah fired rockets and drones into northern Israel in retaliation for Khamenei's killing. Israel launched a new ground incursion into southern Lebanon and fresh strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs. (Times of Israel)
• Israel's Defense Minister authorized a ground invasion of Lebanon to seize strategic positions. France announced plans to send anti-missile systems to Cyprus following Iranian attacks there. (Times of Israel)

Economic Impact

• Global oil benchmark Brent crude rose nearly 10% since the conflict began, trading around $80/barrel. Analysts warn it could cross $100/barrel if the Strait of Hormuz closure is prolonged. About 20% of global LNG exports pass through the Gulf. (CNBC)
• European stocks fell sharply, with the Stoxx 600 down 2.7% on Tuesday. Bank shares fell 3.8%, insurance stocks 4.2%, and mining stocks 3.9%. (CNBC)
• Thousands of flights have been canceled. Qatar Airways grounded all flights; Qatar's civil aviation authority suspended all air navigation indefinitely. (CNBC)
• Amazon reported that drone strikes damaged three of its facilities in the UAE and Bahrain. (CNBC)
• JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned of possible cyberattacks and terrorist attacks on banks globally as a result of the conflict. (CNBC)

What's Next

• President Trump said the war is expected to last 4–5 weeks and that attacks will continue until all objectives are met. He did not rule out deploying ground troops if "necessary." (Washington Post)
• The US State Department urged Americans in more than a dozen Middle Eastern countries — including Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, UAE, and Yemen — to "depart now." (CNBC)
• Secretary of State Rubio said the next phase of the war "will be even more punishing." (CNBC)

Sources:

Al Jazeera – Live Blog, March 3
Al Jazeera – Death Toll Tracker
CNN – Live Updates, March 1
CNBC – Live Updates, March 3
CNBC – Live Updates, March 2
Washington Post – Day 3 of Strikes
Times of Israel – Live Blog, March 3
Wikipedia – 2026 Iran Conflict

At the Close, Monday, March 2, 2026:
Dow: 48,904.78, -73.14 (-0.15%)
NASDAQ: 22,748.86, +80.65 (+0.36%)
S&P 500: 6,881.62, +2.74 (+0.04%)
NYSE Composite: 23,413.11, -81.33 (-0.35%)

WEEKEND WRAP: WAR with Iran; Anthropic AI Booted by War Department; Investors Flood into Treasuries, Gold, Silver; Oil About to Break Out

Editor's Note: War doesn't bestow many, if any, benefits. It being mostly about destruction, those who engage in it willingly are seldom people you'd have over for dinner. Because events are changing so quickly under the fog of war, Money Daily decided to mostly refrain from editorializing or providing links, since the stories are likely to be outdated within hours of their publication. Readers are advised, especially now, to perform their own research and due diligence. Best of luck to all.

Two major stories emerged as February came to a close.

On Friday, President Trump pre-empted a deadline imposed by Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, for Anthropic, the AI company that had contracted with the DoW for unclassified and classified operations, to accede to demands that it abandon its safety guardrails, specifically, that Anthropic's technology would not be used to conduct mass surveillance on U.S. citizens, and, that it would not be used to produce fully autonomous weapons systems without human supervision.

Anthropic's CEO, Dario Amodei, chose to take the moral high ground and stick to the company's safety guidelines - which were included in the contract with DoW - risking a $200 million contract with the War Department. Trump interceded an hour before Friday's 5:01 pm ET deadline, via a post on Truth Social, ordering all agencies to cease using Anthropic's products and cancelling all government contracts with the company. For his part, Secretary of War Hegseth declared Anthropic a "supply chain risk."

The effect of Hegseth's knee-jerk response is as yet unknown. Anthropic has extensive ties to businesses large and small around the world and throughout the United States. A complete ban on using the company's products - the most popular being "Claude" - would likely affect thousands of U.S. firms.

Trump's directive is more straightforward. Agencies of the federal government will stop using Anthropic's products as soon as possible. For the War Department, there will be a six-month transition period.

On Saturday, Sam Altman's company, OpenAI, was designated as the replacement of Anthropic. This story is still evolving, as is the other major development, the military assault by the U.S. and Israel on the nation of Iran, which commenced early Saturday morning.

Thus far, the U.S. claimed (and Iran soon afterwards confirmed) that the religious leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, was killed in a missile strike on his compound in Tehran. Other leaders were also taken out amid hundreds of U.S. and Israeli strikes. Iran retaliated with strikes of its own on U.S. bases and some civilian structures in Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Israel, and elsewhere.

The war being less than 48 hours old, it's not possible to draw any conclusions other than it seems to be only just getting started and figures to be an ongoing conflict for at least weeks and probably months, both sides committed to seeing it through according to their goals. For the U.S, and Israel, that is complete destruction of Iran's military and regime change. Iran is fighting for its very survival. This does not appear to be anything that will be resolved in the short term.

Stocks

Taking another blow, the Dow and NASDAQ suffered the worst, though, on a percentage basis, it was little more than a flesh wound. The markets continue to have the uncanny ability to drop one day and rally the next, regardless of geopolitics and AI-related overhang. The S&P was off less than 1/2 percent, just scratching the surface of its bubble condition. For all the ups and downs, the S&P 500 is up 0.45% year-to-date, essentially a sideways market.

Whether that will change in consideration of current events remains a mystery, though it does appear that any upside momentum has been overtaken.

Earnings season continues at a crawl, with retailers in focus for the week ahead.

Monday: (before open) Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH), ADT (ADT); (after close) Riot Platforms (RIOT), Plug Power (PLUG), Quantum Computing (QUBT), AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)

Tuesday: (before open) Playsafe ((PSFE), Best Buy (BBY), Target (TGT), Ross Stores (ROST), AutoZone (AZO), Thor Industries (THO), VIK (Viking Holdings; (after close) Rayonier Advanced Materials (RYAM), GitLab (GTLB), CrowdStrike (CRWD)

Wednesday: (before open) Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Wix (WIX), Dycom Industries (DY); (after close) American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), OKTA (OKTA), STEM (STEM)

Thursday: (before open) Ciena (CIEN), Victoria's Secret (VSCO), Burlington (BURL), Kroger (KR); (after close) GoPro (GPRO), Petrobras (PBR), Marvell (MRVL), Costco (COST)

Friday: (before open) Embraer (EMBJ), Genesco (GCO), Algonquin Power & Utilities (AQN)

The week ahead includes some juice from data, though the situation in the Middle East will likely have a larger overall impact on stocks. Briefly, Monday has the February ISM manufacturing PMI and S&P Global U.S. manufacturing PMI; Wednesday, ADP's February National Employment Report, S&P Global Feb. U.S. Services PMI, Feb. ISM Services PMI, Fed Beige Book. On Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims are announced prior to the open, U.S. Q$ Productivity, and January Import Price Index are reported. Friday, the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll report for February will be in focus, plus, January Consumer Credit, Retail Sales (January), and December Business inventories.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
01/23/2026	3.78	3.71	3.72	3.70	3.67	3.61	3.53
01/30/2026	3.72	3.73	3.75	3.67	3.69	3.61	3.48
02/06/2026	3.72	3.72	3.74	3.68	3.70	3.59	3.45
02/13/2026	3.72	3.71	3.73	3.68	3.70	3.59	3.42
02/20/2026	3.72	3.73	3.74	3.69	3.71	3.61	3.51
02/27/2026	3.74	3.73	3.73	3.67	3.67	3.60	3.48

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
01/23/2026	3.60	3.67	3.84	4.03	4.24	4.78	4.82
01/30/2026	3.52	3.60	3.79	4.01	4.26	4.82	4.87
02/06/2026	3.50	3.57	3.76	3.98	4.22	4.80	4.85
02/13/2026	3.40	3.43	3.61	3.81	4.04	4.64	4.69
02/20/2026	3.48	3.50	3.65	3.85	4.08	4.66	4.72
02/27/2026	3.38	3.39	3.51	3.72	3.97	4.57	4.64

The benchmark 10-year note ended the week yielding less than four percent, the first time its breached that level since October 28, 2025 (3.99%). Considering the various threats to stability, the rush into the relative safety of treasuries is not to be taken lightly. Buyers seem perfectly willing to accept smallish returns that may not even equal inflation in an effort to preserve capital. The fixed income market senses fear, and for good reason(s). The general effect is a flat-lining of the entire curve, with rates at a low of 3.38 (2-year notes) and a high of 4.64% (30-year), hardly enough spread to make a profit.

Profit is probably not the main concern for buyers. Despite not even breaking even with inflation, the focus is on keeping money at some kind of reasonable level until global conditions improve or degrade, the latter condition not conducive to making money anywhere at any time.

Spreads remain elevated, with 2s-10s dipping just one basis point from the prior week, to +59 while full spectrum (30 days - 30 years) took a 10 basis point flattening, at +90.

The general trend is not appealing, though it does appear to be leaning closer to a reduction at the short end. Should global conditions remain steadily in poor form or even take a further turn for the worse, the opportunity for the Fed to step in with emergency measures (even more than are already in place) remains a possibility. If Ukraine and Iran continue to produce angst and uncertainty, a cut at the next FOMC meeting (March 17-18) would be likely and the Fed could also signal more to come. The tug-of-war between inflation and recession is keeping the Fed from doing anything dramatic, though that intransigence might prove costly in the long term.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51
11/7: +56
11/14: +52
11/21: +55
11/28: +55
12/5: +58
12/12: +67
12/19: +68
12/26: +68
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61
11/7: +69
11/14: +70
11/21: +68
11/28: +62
12/5: +97
12/12: +109
12/19: +111
12/26: +111
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90

Oil/Gas

WTI crude ended the week at $67.29, almost a buck higher than last Friday's $66.31, and likely to jump on Monday, given the closure by Iran of the Strait of Hormuz, a tipping point in the war and to the global economy. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 20% of the daily flow of crude oil is now effectively cut off, and there are few winners. China, Europe, and the U.S. will suffer from supply imbalances, the winner will be Russia, despite sanctions. Moscow holds a distinct advantage as oil is needed at what may become any price.

It is more likely that the conflict over Iran will last longer than U.S. and Israel desire, putting pressure on the U.S. and Israel to either step up their assault in hopes that Iran will capitulate sooner, rather than later, if at all. Trump and Netanyahu have taken a dangerous gambit, throwing the region into chaos when the rest of the world is already suffering from severe instability.

Expect WTI crude to pop over $70/barrel on Monday, with price increases the longer the conflict remains unresolved.

By early Sunday morning, gas prices were already anticipating price hikes at the pump, with the U.S. national average rising to $2.97.

California rose another three cents over the week, to $4.63 per gallon, the highest in the nation and up 32 cents in just the past four weeks. Washington was up nine cents ($4.36) and is likely to remain a charter member of the $4+ club for the duration of Mideast hostilities. Oregon ($3.89), is up 28 cents in just the past two weeks. After three weeks under $3.00, Arizona is above $3.00 for a fourth straight week, rising 12 cents to $3.34. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma, despite an 11 cent rise, well below any other state, at $2.41, followed by Louisiana ($2.49) and Mississippi ($2.51). The remaining Southeast states, from North Carolina ($2.74) west to New Mexico ($2.72, up 22 cents), are all below $2.79, except Florida ($2.87).

In the Northeast, prices remained steady and consistently close to recent lows. Only Pennsylvania ($3.10) and Vermont ($3.01) were above $3.00. New York held steady at $2.98.

In the midwest region, Illinois gapped 11 cents to $3.03, with Michigan close behind, at $2.98. Kansas was the lowest ($2.54), though higher than last week by eight cents, followed by North Dakota ($2.58), up 12 cents.

Sub-$3.00 gas remained the norm in 40 of the lower 48 states, leaving only California, Washington, Nevada, Oregon, Illinois, Arizona, Vermont, and Pennsylvania, at $3.00 or above. That was the same number as last week, though it now appears unlikely that gas prices will remain near what are six-year lows for much longer.

Bitcoin

This week: $66,515.72
Last week: $67,651.35
2 weeks ago: $68,948.18
6 months ago: $110,374.90
One year ago: $85,812.15
Five years ago: $48,883.48

Bitcoiners aren't going to get any relief from war of AI any time soon, or anything else for that matter. The problem exists within the crypto sphere entirely, derived from not having a solid use case for any kind of "coinage."

With assets under pressure and a liquidity drain forming, there's no place but down for the entire miasma of "hodlers" and dreamers. Nobody is going to get rich from crypto assets other than criminals exploiting the system or Wall Street sharpies and short-side speculators. While whales, true believers, and Michael Saylor may continue to keep the value of bitcoin and other cryptos from falling straight off a cliff of their own making, the trend is clearly getting redder every second of every day and wars, instability, inflation or recession aren't going to change their luck.

Crypto has seen its best days. What remains will be a catastrophe.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 56.26; last week: 60.66

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 1/30: $4,907.50
Gold price 2/6: $4,988.60
Gold price 2/13: $5,063.80
Gold price 2/20: $5,108.34
Gold price 2/27: $5,296.40

Silver price 1/30: $85.25
Silver price 2/6: $77.53
Silver price 2/13: $77.27
Silver price 2/20: $84.57
Silver price 2/27: $94.39

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 1/30: $4,886.71
Gold 2/6: $4,964.07
Gold 2/13: $5,041.72
Gold 2/20: $5,130.00
Gold 2/27: $5,278.05

Silver 1/30: $84.63
Silver 2/6: $77.98
Silver 2/13: $77.19
Silver 2/20: $84.57
Silver 2/27: $93.82

Though it's not the best or most moral rationale for holding precious metals, there's nothing like a war to send the prices of gold and silver higher. Add that to the unmistakable inconsistencies in the legacy COMEX/LBMA rigging apparatus and there's ample reason to rejoice at the good fortune of vaulted or safe at home "pet rocks." Unless there's a quick resolution to the Iran-U.S./Israel conflict, expect silver to march well beyond $100 in the coming week and gold to hit new highs over $5,500.

The weekly survey of pries on eBay are already pricing in the costs of war. It's not pretty nor desirable, but, it's a well-known fact that when people are having munitions explode nearby, those outside the blast radii will be reaching for something shiny.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	98.48	112.00	103.71	102.45
1 oz silver bar:	104.99	120.00	110.38	109.26
1 oz gold coin:	5,469.67	5,703.40	5,582.30	5,566.13
1 oz gold bar:	5,425.00	5,599.02	5,515.49	5,530.83

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) leapt higher Saturday into Sunday, to $106.45, a gain of $10.28 cents from the February 22 price of $96.17 per troy ounce.

The weekly eBay price survey continues to reveal that retail dealers and casual buyers and sellers alike have adjusted to severe premiums, which remain in a range of 20-25% and higher over spot for small denominations. This Sunday morning, buyers are pricing in the Mideast conflict to an alarming degree.

WEEKEND WRAP

Well, war it is, then. Whether attacking a nation of more than 90 million people that is armed to the teeth is a good idea for the intellectuals in Washington, D.C. and Tel-Aviv remains to be seen.

For they have sown the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind: it hath no stalk: the bud shall yield no meal: if so be it yield, the strangers shall swallow it up. -- Hosea 8:7

At the Close, Friday, February 27, 2026:
Dow: 48,977.92, -521.28 (-1.05%)
NASDAQ: 22,668.21, -210.17 (-0.92%)
S&P 500: 6,878.88, -29.98 (-0.43%)
NYSE Composite: 23,494.44, -30.40 (-0.13%)

For the Week:
Dow: -648.05 (-1.31%)
NASDAQ: -217.86 (-0.95%)
S&P 500: -30.63 (-0.44%)
NYSE Composite: +41.84 (+0.18%)
Dow Transports: -151.99 (-0.77%)

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AI Strikes Again: Jack Dorsey's Block (XYZ) Cuts Jobs in Favor of AI, Stock Soars; January PPI Shows Inflation Remains Above Fed Target

Market volatility reared its ugly head again on Thursday, sending major indices into a tailspin early in the session prior to an afternoon recovery, but futures are indicating a lower open on Friday, as one of the usual catalysts, Nvidia, failed to spark buying in the tech sector and elsewhere.

While Nvidia crushed expectations in its quarterly report after the close Wednesday, the stock sank at the open Thursday and remained mired in the red, losing 5.46% on the day as fears of widespread economic disruption from AI continued to overhang markets. The major fear is that AI will replace most white collar jobs in all industries, a trend that has already seen casualties and should continue to propagate as LLMs continue to learn and grow knowledge bases that make human interaction often trivial and less effective.

AI has already begun to replace entry level jobs in accounting, law, computer programming, coding, research, and other data-intensive functions. It's rapid ascendancy into the business climate is fomenting disruption at firms large and small, as adoption and use of the technology obviates its usefulness and cost effectiveness. AI doesn't take a weekly or monthly paycheck, it doesn't need vacations, health care, sick days, or maternity leave. In general, AI can perform most or all of the functions of entry-level computer workers at a fraction of the cost with minimal supervision, and, as the LLMs learn, they become more accurate and less prone to mistakes. AI “assistants” also generate no employee income, a real quandary for taxing authorities (though some may argue that’s a good thing).

The rise of the machines has become a real concern on Wall Street, though the initial effects may actually cause companies to become more attractive, as Jack Dorsey's payment processing company, Block (XYZ), discovered after slashing thousands of computer jobs in favor of AI. Dorsey, the inventor and founder of Twitter, now X, announced immediate layoff late Thursday. Shares of the company are up more than 18% in pre-market trading Friday.

Volatility due to AI adoption and growth is not likely to ebb any time soon. Rather, it should accelerate as more companies find use cases for the fast-growing technology and the models show improved efficiency. AI also ties into robotics, another growth area that threatens blue collar jobs, as it is used as the "brains" of robots, humanized or otherwise, allowing actual learning of tasks traditionally the province of human beings. Already, companies are touting house-cleaning robots that can be trained to do menial tasks such as vacuuming, laundry, washing dishes, general maintenance and other tasks. Within two to three years, household robots will become a robust market as production costs come down and efficiencies gain.

In another very telling development related to market health and volatility, yields on the benchmark 10-year note dipped briefly below four percent on Thursday, indicating that investors are shedding equities in favor of the safety of fixed income securities. There doesn't seem to be many sectors safe from the AI phenomenon. Use cases are being developed in everything from automated manufacturing to gardening and robotic companionship models.

It's not going away.

Investors have to consider the fallout from millions of entry-level and middle management workers thrust into unemployment lines by AI, and what will become of U.S. and global workforces, long term. If AI continues to replace humans in the workplace, where will these displaced workers go after unemployment benefits and severance runs out? There are presently no easy answers, only nagging indications that a radical shift in the capitalist model is underway.

With markets due to open in a matter of minutes, after the BLS released the January Producer Price Index (PPI), stock futures, which were already lower, continued to decline, sending Dow futures down 510 points, NASDAQ futures off 240, and S&P futures down 38.

The report, from an inflation standpoint, and, from the perspective of lower interest rates, was not good:

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.4 percent in December 2025 and 0.2 percent in November. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.9 percent for the 12 months ended January 2026.

The January increase in prices for final demand can be traced to a 0.8-percent advance in the index for final demand services. In contrast, prices for final demand goods declined 0.3 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.3 percent in January, the ninth consecutive increase. For the 12 months ended in January, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.4 percent.

For the week, through Thursday's close, the Dow is down 126 points, the NASDAQ is down seven, and S&P futures have shed 37 points.

With valuations at nosebleed levels for many stocks, especially in the tech space, how much longer before companies like Google, Apple, Meta Platforms and others start announcing massive layoffs in favor of AI? The other side of the coin is that these same companies are building the data centers that make AI possible, investing billions in CapEX. These big investments will be offset by lower operating costs down the line, so there is something of a silver lining.

At the Close, Thursday, February 26, 2026:
Dow: 49,499.20, +17.05 (+0.03%)
NASDAQ: 22,878.38, -273.70 (-1.18%)
S&P 500: 6,908.86, -37.27 (-0.54%)
NYSE Composite: 23,524.84, +72.10 (+0.31%)

Nvidia Smashes Expectations, as Usual; Fails to Ignite Confidence Rally; US-Iran Talks Continue Toward Peaceful Resolution

After the close on Wednesday, chip-maker Nvidia (NVDA) released earnings from the fouth quarter of 2025. For the quarter, Nvidia saw earnings per share (EPS) of $1.62 on revenue of $68.1 billion. The company issued positive guidance for the first quarter of 2026.

The market said, "ho-hum."

There's no surprise that Nvidia shattered expectations. That's what the stock does.

Prior to the opening bell, shares of the world's most valuable company by market cap are flat to slightly higher. Wall Street is going to need more than this to keep the rally going during the period between earnings seasons. Most companies have already filed full year and 4th quarter 2025 reports. Year-to-date, the Dow is leading the way, up 2.59%. S&P is ahead by 1.47% and the NASDAQ is off by 0.39%.

Talks between Iran and the U.S. continued on Thursday, with most officials reporting positive progress toward a peaceful resolution, though many in the political shpere are keeping opinions mum with the buildup of military assets in the region by the U.S. indicating some kind of kinetic action.

There's little to report other than stocks have bounced back from Monday's losses and are looking forward to a positive return for the week. Friday's PPI report for February prior to the opening bell may influence trading.

Otherwise, the casino remains open.

At the Close, Wednesday, February 25, 2026:
Dow: 49,482.15, +307.65 (+0.63%)
NASDAQ: 23,152.08, +288.40 (+1.26%)
S&P 500: 6,946.13, +56.06 (+0.81%)
NYSE Composite: 23,452.73, +68.90 (+0.29%)

Trump SOTU Draws Battle Lines for Midterms, Portrays Democrats as Un-American, Softens Tone on Iran, Gives Markets a Boost

In the first State of the Union address of his second term, President Trump affirmed, once again, that he is a master showman capable of delivering a message with clarity and boldness while at the same time taking swipes at his detractors and opponents for their shortcomings.

The longest SOTU since at least 1964, Trump's speech before the combined houses of the legislature alternated between substantive boasts of progress on economic and social issues and showy anecdotes of American exceptionalism, all the while remaining focused on the accomplishments of his administration's first full year.

While some of Trump's rhetoric may have deviated slightly from actual facts, the message was clear as day: America is strong, America is bold, and America will keep on winning. In just under two hours of oratory, President Trump pressed his agenda, pushing his Republican colleagues to pass legislation to codify many of his priorities, at the same time berating the Democrat party for its wrong-footed ideology, and refusal to accept common-sense solutions for the American people.

The most poignant moment was when Trump challenged the entire chamber with a choice, "Stand if you agree: The first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens." With that, Republicans rose in applause while Democrats sat quietly on their hands. It was a stark moment, a thrown gauntlet that made the Democrats look foolish and completely out of step.

Trump also managed to largely avoid the issue of potential military action against Iran by clearly stating that he preferred a diplomatic solution, a posture that comes as welcome relief to many patriots who agree with "peace through strength" but are not completely aligned with Mideast policy.

By the end of the night, Trump had managed to improve his public perception and draw a stark line of delineation between Republican and Democrat agenda. He set the agenda for the upcoming midterm elections in no uncertain terms. Democrats scurried from the chamber as fast as possible, as if to avoid being overwhelmed by the wave of Republican enthusiasm.

Politics aside, Trump's SOTU address was timely, delivered in the brash, combative manner that Americans appreciate. While being loud, boisterous, and bullish may be seen in certain circles as undignified and inappropriate, being somewhat unmannerly is something etched into the heart and soul of America. Trump reaffirmed that the United States - approaching a milestone 250 years - will still stand tall and not back down. If Americans needed a boost to their fractured notions of what America stands for, Trump provided a reasonable prescription.

It's not so much that America doesn't have issues and warts - it does - but by focusing on the positive and imagining a way forward, President Trump cleared the air on a host of matters that may give his administration some much-needed breathing room in the months and years ahead.

Initial reaction to Trump's long-winded speech is reflected in a positive lean in stock futures haeding into Wednesday's session. An hour before the opening bell, Dow futures were up about 140 points, NASDAQ futures were ahead by 105, S&P futures gained 19.

Coupled with earnings reports overnight and into Wednesday morning, the market appears still somewhat unsteady, but ready to continue rallying back against steep losses taken on Monday.

Tuesday, after the bell, 4th quarter earnings from the following companies hit the tape:
Mercado Libre (MELI) - solid on revenue, short on EPS, stock trading 5-6% lower pre-market
Workday (WDAY) - strong 4Q earnings, but AI concerns, subsription issues, weak guidance send shares down 10%
First Solar (FSLR) - Earnings miss, shares down 15%
HP Inc. (HPQ) - strong quarter, mixed forecast, stock down 5-6%

With Tuesday's earnings results less-than-encouraging, Wednesday offerings before the opening bell included: TJX Companies (TJX) - Q4 beat, shares up 1% Photronics (PLAB) - Earnings beat, strong sales and guidance sends stock up 5% Lowe’s (LOW) - top and bottom beat, but stock sells off 3%

After the close Thursday, Nvidia (NVDA), SalesForce (CRM), and Synopsis (SNPS) report. Obviously, the focus will be on Nvidia, though it's become something of a fool’s errand to chase the chipmakers that are already at excessive valuations. Better opportunities exist further down the AI disruption food chain.

Looks like the market is going to get some help from Trump’s bully pulpit remarks, but strains in the general economy continue to manifest. The market may take some relief that the U.S. hasn't committed to military action in Iran and the possibility that an overt kinetic exercise may still be averted.

At the Close, Tuesday, February 24, 2026:
Dow: 49,174.50, +370.44 (+0.76%)
NASDAQ: 22,863.68, +236.41 (+1.04%)
S&P 500: 6,890.07, +52.32 (+0.77%)
NYSE Composite: 23,383.83, +168.95 (+0.73%)