Jackson Hole Post-Mortem: Warsh Remarks Inconsequential; Market Disappointment Seen in Late Sell-off; Gold, Silver Victimized

There was nothing even close to controversial or market-moving in Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's keynote address at the Jackson Hole Symposium earlier today.

Thus, stocks initially rose in the 30 to 45 minutes after the speech but quickly sold off, leading to a flat finish for the Dow, and lower ends for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ.

With inflation concerns remaining a feature of the Warsh Fed, longer-dated maturities in the treasury market saw yields rise, the 30-year up to 5.20%, and the benchmark 10-year note hitting 4.72%.

The worst performance was seen in precious metals, though there wasn't exactly correlation or any overt relation to the Fed Chairman's speech. Gold fell $144, to $4.456, while silver was battered down from a high of $71.22 to support at $66.00, a drop of more than four percent on the day. While some traders may consider the losses in gold and silver due to higher interest rates, the relationship does't hold water when inflation is figured into the mix.

At the close of the week, it's still apparent that most of the trading operates on noise rather than signal and the LBMA/COMEX brotherhood of repression takes every opportunity to suppress prices for precious metals, regardless of market circumstances. Stocks finished the week with gains while precious metals, which had broken through resistance just earlier in the day, were beaten back to relative supports.

Most of the trading had little to nothing to do with Jackson Hole, the Fed, or Chairman Warsh's hush-hush style. There's more than ample noise in the markets with which to persuade nubes and rubes into wrong-footed positions.

See you Sunday for the WEEKEND WRAP.

World Readies for Warsh Address at Jackson Hole; Oil Flows Through Strait of Hormuz Improving; Silver Breaks Through Resistance, Heads Higher

With Fed Chair Kevin Warsh queued up for the Jackson Hole speech at 10:00 am ET today, some tidbits of information are worth consideration.

Perhaps most important are reports coming out of the Middle East (now known as West Asia) that oil transiting through theStrait of Hormuz has increased dramatically over the past few days. A Bloomberg article via Yahoo! Finance cites Goldman Sachs saying that oil is flowing through the Strait at 2/3rds of pre-war levels. Considering the source and the reporting outlets, the rosy assessment ought to be received with a dose of skepticism.

Whatever the case may be in the war-torn region, there appears to be improvement in the overall tone between the conflicted countries about oil supplies flowing through the region, a positive sign for President Trump and the Republican prospects for the upcoming midterms. WTI crude oil is quoted at just above $82/barrel in the futures market, though gas prices at the pump remain a drag on consumer spending. If oil, deisel, and gas prices experience some relief, the U.S. economy

On the earnings front, retailers Dollar General (DG), DollarTree (DLTR), Best Buy (BBY), Burlington (BURL), and Gap Inc. (GAP) all reported positive second quarter results over the past 24 hours. Gap shares are trading 18% higher in the pre-market. The company reported an EPS beat despite missing on the revenue side.

The second estimate for second quarter GDP came in at the same level as the initial estimate, with the U.S. economy growing at 1.5%. Durable goods orders increased by 1.1% in July, topping estimates.

Stock futures are hugging the flat line with Dow and S&P futures up marginally and NASDAQ futures down just 33 points a half hour before the opening bell.

Gold is hovering around $4,600, but silver broke through resistance overnight and has traded as high as $71.07 this morning on the spot market. Stocks, interest rates, and precious metals are likely to be affected by Warsh's speech, though the thrust of his pronouncements may be more noise rather than signal. The real signals are coming from Scott Bessent's Treasury Department, hell-bent on keeping long term interest rates (10s out to 30s) tamped down at least until the midterms. Also contributing are massive U.S. deficits, lower tax revenues, and an economy booming on the heels of the AI buildout.

Money Daily will return with a recap of the Warsh speech and market reaction later today.

At the Close, Thursday, August 27, 2026:
Dow: 53,569.44, +105.56 (+0.20%)
NASDAQ: 26,541.35, +411.15 (+1.57%)
S&P 500: 7,730.99, +55.29 (+0.72%)
NYSE Composite: 24,649.03, -93.05 (-0.38%)

Nvidia Results Set Up Mini Tech Rally; Markets Remain in Doldrums Awaiting Warsh Speech at Jackson Hole Friday; Gold, Silver Lower After Hitting Resistance

While the world awaits Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday, Nvidia delivered another solid earnings report which appears to be fueling a tech rally as the opening bell approaches Thursday morning.

Investors have sent Nvidia (NVDA) shares 13% higher in pre-market trading, based on the company's reported second quarter results and strong forward guidance. The chip-maker reported beats on the top and bottom lines for the quarter and looks forward to a robust second half of 2026. Investors in the tech/AI rollout appear eager to put their money to work with Nvidia. Since hitting an all-time high of 235.74 on May 14th, the stock has languished, dropping as low as 190 in late July. It finished Wednesday's session at 209.66, and may appear to be a bargain to some, despite a PE ratio above 30.

The earnings report comes at a moment that is conflicted, with Warsh's speech on Friday and continuing geo-political issues clouding the horizon in the Middle East and Ukraine. Were it not for the timing, Nvidia may have been poised for a breakout to new highs, and that still could be the case, though not likely today.

Reported Wednesday morning, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose 3.3% in July on a "core" basis, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. That was in line with expectations and at the same level as June. Month over month, prices rose 0.2%, also in line with expectations and up from 0.1% in June.

The numbers comprising the PCE have the Fed somewhat on edge, with inflation still running fairly hot, though analysts have noted that the rate of change on inflation is slowing. If that proves to be a longer term trend and not just a one-off fluctuation, the Fed would have little reason to raise rates to slow the inflation monster that has plagued the U.S. economy since 2020.

Whatever the case, there's reason to believe that Warsh will reveal any inkling of the Fed's preferred direction on rates. He's been tight-lipped from the start of his chairmanship a few months ago and there appears to be no reason that he would stray from his established style.

The assembled economists, speculators, and financial players at Jackson Hole may come away with little more than party favors and souvenirs come Friday. Warsh isn't going to tip his hand, so the market will have to rely on good old momentum and FOMO for the time being.

There's not a lot to go on other than the continuation of the tech bubble rally, and that comes with a healthy dose of skepticism.

Approaching the open, stock futures are a mixed bag, with NASDAQ futures up 260; S&P futures up 25 points and Dow futures down 80.

Gold and silver continue to retreat from recent highs, silver finding resistance at $69/ounce and gold stopping out just above $4,600. For now, it appears that even the metals markets are on hold in front of the Warsh address.

Interest rates have mellowed since Scott Bessent's announcement that Treasury would buy back more of its issuance at a faster rate. Ten-year notes are yielding 4.66% and 30-year bond yields are holding around 5.19%.

So far, the week hasn't produced much excitement other than the Nvidia results, but, with August coming to a close and congress due back in session after Labor Day, there's sure to be more interest after the holiday, implying that next week might also be a little short on thrills.

At the Close, Wednesday, August 26, 2026:
Dow: 53,463.88, -113.52 (-0.21%)
NASDAQ: 26,130.20, -21.10 (-0.08%)
S&P 500: 7,675.70, -1.58 (-0.02%)
NYSE Composite: 24,742.07, -26.58 (-0.11%)

Markets Stalled in Anticipation of Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech Friday; Nvidia Cues Up Earnings Report After the Bell; Gold, Silver Test Resistance

If it seems as if everything is on hold until Friday's Jackson Hole keynote address by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh (10:00 am ET), it's probably because it is.

The Chairman's speech at the annual Symposium in Wyoming s normally a seminal event at which movers and shakers in the financial world hope to glean some tidbits of knowledge about the general economic condition of the world and the U.S. in particular and how the Federal Reserve plans to respond with policy.

While that may not be exactly the case with the tight-lipped Warsh, there is still great anticipation concerning his remarks, given the unstable conditions that exist around the world today. The Chairman is not likely to give away any secrets, but discerning participants believe what he has to say will have a large impact on shaping the policies of the Federal Reserve for the coming six to 18 months.

That's important because if he leans toward fighting inflation by tightening or towards keeping the economy running smoothly by keeping policy loose, makes all the difference in the world. More nuanced might be his opinions on energy resources, employment, AI, and a host of other issues, from geo-politics to domestic matters, and everything in between.

There's no doubt that Warsh's speech will be important, but maybe markets are overdoing it. The days of an almighty Fed, by which a mere utterance or small change in a policy statement might send markets reeling or soaring, are over. Warsh has made that clear in his first two press conferences. There will be no tipping off, no forward guidance, and no front-running based on his remarks. The best one can hope for is a little bit of insight into which way the Fed is leaning. Given that, investors may want to get on with their usual business and gauge markets for what they are.

In those terms, stocks are generally trading at nose-bleed levels, which has become standard practice since the GFC in 2008-09. The perception that the markets are undergirded by various entities ranging from the PPT (President's Working Group on Financial Markets, or, Plunge Protection Team), and more recently the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), which does precisely what the name implies, intervenes in financial markets to keep everything nce and tidy, without one currency or another going ballistic or imploding. The ESF was a primary mover in the recent intervention on the Japanese yen. Funds were deloyed and a swap agreement devised to keep the yen from further devaluation without forcing the BoJ to sell U.S. treasuries.

The mechanisms and others allow for the markets to function without obvious guardrails and also subvert the true meaning of "free" or "open" markets. Today's stock and bond markets are highly orchestrated. Nobody wants a crash, a meltdown, or even a correction, though these same entities see nothing at all wrong with keeping stocks at extremes or lowering interest rates to nearly zero, as was the case through most of the 2010s and beyond.

Financial journalists have bought into the idea that Warsh's Jackson Hole speech is going to set the tone for markets. Good for them. That kind of propaganda is good for ratings and advertising rates, or so it would appear. Those with a more adult attitude (and maybe a little skeptical as well) about money, finance, and investing, will want to look beyond speeches and rhetoric and focus on actual facts, fundamentals, and due diligence. That's what makes markets.

Given the current landscape, markets are going to be influenced more by the politics of the midterm elections and the price of gas at the pump than any mouthing by Fed officials. Policies of the Federal Reserve may be more deterministic than generally understood. They are reactive rather than proactive. Action "on the ground", so to speak, has more to do with day-to-day swings in prices and attitudes than any bellowing from ivory towers.

Approaching Wednesday's opening bell, markets remain subdued and under the influence of the upcoming "big talk." Stock futures are hanging slightly lower; precious metals have slipped below resistance points, with gold just above $4,600 and silver steadying around $68 per troy ounce. WTI crude oil has dropped for $88 to around $80 per barrel over the last few days on more rumors, wishful thinking, and innuendo about a resolution between the U.S., it's Arab partners and Iran.

Today's waiting game involves not just Jackson Hole, but Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, which reports after the close.

Somewhere on a veranda in the clouds, Paul Volker, Adam Smith, and King Midas are having cigars, brandy, and a good laugh.

At the Close, Tuesday, August 25, 2026:
Dow: 53,577.40, +160.24 (+0.30%)
NASDAQ: 26,151.30, +171.11 (+0.66%)
S&P 500: 7,677.28, +24.42 (+0.32%)
NYSE Composite: 24,768.65, +42.01 (+0.17%)

Bessent Launches Economic D-Day; Markets Moan; Dick's Sporting Goods Falling to 2 1/2-Year Lows; Gold, Silver Lower; Crude Oil Remains Bid

OK, let's just destroy Iran economically, since the mighty United States military couldn't bomb those savage Persians into submission.

That is the clear message that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been sounding off about for the past few weeks and days, and on Monday, he announced it in public at a well-rehearsed press conference, telling U.S. allies and enemies alike that if they aid the Iranians in any way, there will be hell to pay in the form of sanctions and elimination from the U.S. banking system, SWIFT, and probably more pain to come, maybe forty lashes or something along the lines of pirating behavior.

The Iranians are not exactly quaking in their boots. In fact, a number of their leaders were openly defiant, claiming that if harm comes to their economic partners, there would be military retaliation against U.S. interests.

China made no bones about it, expressing their right to do business with whomever they please. Both President Trump and Secretary Bessent backed away from antagonizing the largest U.S. trading partner. Apparently, sanctions are only for countries that aren't already doing business with the U.S.

So, the drama continues. The Strait of Hormuz remans closed. Over at the COMEX, oil futures are being played like a concertina, and Wall Street didn't seem to like the idea very much, but, having the memory of a gnat, they'll be back to pushing equity prices higher, as Tuesday morning's stock futures are suggesting.

Approaching the opening bell, Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) isn't feeling very sporty after releasing second quarter results that oddly resembled WNBA attendance figures, missing on the top and bottom, sending out bad vibes with lowered guidance, and generally grieving about the state of the not-so-sporty Americans that find their prices just a little too high, even with back-to-school season in full swing.

With 30 minutes until the opening bell, Dick's stock is down some 18 percent. about to crash down to a level not seen since January, 2024.

The rest of the market seems to want to ignore the idea that consumers are tapped out and the price of gas at the pump is curtailing discretionary purchases in a big way. High inflation and high costs of just getting by can produce demand destruction, and Dick's, along with other retailers that have recently reported, such as Walmart, Target, an Lowe's, are feeling the pinch.

Heading toward the open, stock futures are higher, with Dow futures up 236, NASDAQ futures up 233, and S&P futures ahead by 29 points.

Gold and silver are taking a break from their relentless three-week-long rally. It was only a matter of time before the riggers and suppressors at the COMEX and LBMA would step in and short the metals. Apparently, their efforts are underway. Brent and WTI crude remain stubbornly at elevated levels. It's not so easy to keep a lid on prices when there's almost no crude flowing through the Persian Gulf.

Meanwhile, in Moscow and Beijing, precious metals carry a premium over Western quoted prices and they look forward to the United States kicking a few more countries off the SWIFT system. The BRICS countries welcome such developments.

At the Close, Monday, August 24, 2026:
Dow: 53,417.16, +140.16 (+0.26%)
NASDAQ: 25,980.19, -200.31 (-0.77%)
S&P 500: 7,652.86, -21.51 (-0.28%)
NYSE Composite: 24,726.64, -2.03 (-0.01%)