Short Term Pain for Long Term Gain
What a complete load of crap.
The national average for a gallon of gas at the pump this Sunday is $3.69. A month ago (Feb. 15) it was $2.92. That's 26% increase and nobody has any idea of how long this "short term pain" will last and what constitutes "long term gain." Sounds like a well-conceived con to separate Americans (and Europeans) from their money.
While Trump's "escapade" in the Middle East has reached Day 16, it might be time to begin measuring the pain threshold of the American public and the rest of the world in terms of weeks, as it appears this conflict isn't going to end anytime soon.
As Americans have found out in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Ukraine, when the United States goes to war, they don't dally around for a few weeks or even months. Military confrontations - especially one in which we have an ally, in this case, Israel - normally take years to resolve, so anybody wishing for a quick end to the Iranian question might want to read a few history books.
The approach to this particular exercise has been cynical to say the least. A few days after the Department of War and wartime President Trump said the conflict might last "a few weeks", it quickly became four to eight weeks, and then some suggested 100 days or into September. Considering the strength of Iran's military and the resolve of their people (who aren't about to overthrow their government, sorry), there's every chance that the U.S. will still be at war with Iran at this time next year and maybe the year after that.
The first few weeks of the war haven't gone quite as swimmingly as the U.S. expected. As for Israel, it's being - to use a trump-ism - bombed to hell, with parts of Tel Aviv and Haifa beginning to resemble the demolition that's taken place in Gaza over the past two years.
Keeping score at this juncture isn't easy, but, as in most conflicts, everybody's losing. Iran and Israel have likely both lost thousands of lives, while the U.S. military is keeping its actual casualty count under wraps, with ample assistance by the Western media cartel.
No reports come from Israel, under a tight censorship blanket, and photo images of damage to U.S. airbases and weaponry are under four-to-14-day embargoes.
Then there's this:
...followed by Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Chairman Brendan Carr warning broadcasters who air “fake news” to “correct course before their license renewals come up,” in a post on X.
How very Soviet. Taxpayers and citizens should keep in mind that while the public pays for this war through taxes and inflation, they are not allowed to know the truth.
Elsewhere in the swamp of D.C. lawmakers continue to not fund DHS and also can't pass a bill requiring that only U.S. citizens to vote in elections. Congress, let's face it, they just suck. The good news is that the Republicans are likely to lose a massive number of House seats and maybe lose control of the Senate, leaving the government in a deadlocked condition for possibly two years after the midterms this November. Hampering the ability of the government to pass any new legislation is at least a partial win for Americans.
Stocks
The week was another loser for equities:
Dow: -943.08 (-1.99%)
NASDAQ: -282.32 (-1.26%)
S&P 500: -107.83 (-1.60%)
NYSE Composite: -467.13 (-2.07%)
Dow Transports: -729.48 (-3.95%)
With the Dow Transports leading the way with losses in four of the past five weeks, owning equities at this juncture is beginning to become a painful exercise. All of the major indices has lost ground for three consecutive weeks, except fot the NYSE Composite, lower just the past two.
From its recent all time high of 50,188.14 (Feb. 10) , the Dow Industrial Average finished out the week down 7.23%. The NASDAQ, after topping out at 23,958.47 on October 29, 2025, closed Friday down 7.73%, and the S&P, from a closing high of 6.978.60 (January 27) is down 4.96%. Of course, this is nothing. Stocks can turn on a dime, as we all know. Historic trends suggest light declines, as have been seen, followed by a reversal higher. It's still early, but defense and energy stocks should out-perform.
The FOMC meets this week, with consensus betting on no movement on the federal funds rate, keeping the yield at 3.50% to 3.75%. The meeting begins Tuesday and concludes Wednesday with a 2:00 pm ET policy announcement, followed by the usual press conference by Chairman Powell. This month also includes the forecasts or "dot plots" from the assembled members.
On Monday, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for February are released, along with the March Empire State manufacturing survey. Tuesday has Pending Home Sales. Wednesday, prior to the FOMC announcement, Producer Price Index (PPI) for February and January Factory Orders.
Thursday data includes January new home sales, weekly jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for March, and January Wholesale Inventories.
Earnings season continues to wind down, with Dollar Tree, FedEx and Macy's highlighting the week.
Monday: (before open) Telos (TLS), Dollar Tree (DLTR); (after close) Playboy (PLBY), Getty Images (GETY), Semtech (SMYC)
Tuesday: (before open) Ebit Systems (ESLT), Tencent Music Entertainment (TME); (after close) Lululemon (LULU), Docusign (DOCU)
Wednesday: (before open) Tencent (TCEHY), Jabil (JBL), Macy's (M), Williams-Sonoma (*WSM), General Mills (GIS); (after close) Five Below (FIVE), Red Cat (RCAT), Micron Technology (MU)
Thursday: (before open) Accenture (ACN), Alibaba (BABa) Intuitive Machines (LUNR), Canadian Solar (CSIQ), Signet Jewelers (SIG), Darden Restaurants (DRI); (after close) FedEx (FDX), Intellicheck (IDN)
Friday: (before open) BitFuFu (FUFU),
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 02/06/2026 | 3.72 | 3.72 | 3.74 | 3.68 | 3.70 | 3.59 | 3.45 |
| 02/13/2026 | 3.72 | 3.71 | 3.73 | 3.68 | 3.70 | 3.59 | 3.42 |
| 02/20/2026 | 3.72 | 3.73 | 3.74 | 3.69 | 3.71 | 3.61 | 3.51 |
| 02/27/2026 | 3.74 | 3.73 | 3.73 | 3.67 | 3.67 | 3.60 | 3.48 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3.75 | 3.74 | 3.72 | 3.69 | 3.67 | 3.66 | 3.55 |
| 03/13/2026 | 3.75 | 3.74 | 3.71 | 3.72 | 3.69 | 3.70 | 3.66 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 02/06/2026 | 3.50 | 3.57 | 3.76 | 3.98 | 4.22 | 4.80 | 4.85 |
| 02/13/2026 | 3.40 | 3.43 | 3.61 | 3.81 | 4.04 | 4.64 | 4.69 |
| 02/20/2026 | 3.48 | 3.50 | 3.65 | 3.85 | 4.08 | 4.66 | 4.72 |
| 02/27/2026 | 3.38 | 3.39 | 3.51 | 3.72 | 3.97 | 4.57 | 4.64 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3.56 | 3.59 | 3.72 | 3.93 | 4.15 | 4.74 | 4.77 |
| 03/13/2026 | 3.73 | 3.74 | 3.87 | 4.07 | 4.28 | 4.89 | 4.90 |
Yield on 2-year notes hit the highest since July 31, 2025. All long-dated maturities rose between 13 and 17 basis points, wih the 2s the most egregious, up 17 basis points this week and 35 bips the past two. Between war anxiety, inflation fears and general de-dollarization, bond buyers are likely to be demanding higher and higher yields over the near term. The 30-year bond might yield as high as the dreaded 5% after the Fed is almost certain to stand pat this week. There's just too much risk for a rational market to do otherwise.
The yield curve is essentially a flat line from 30 days out to 3 years, with a substantial rise from 3s out to 30s. U.S. long-term viability is under question. spreads remain elevated, especially with the full spectrum (30 days out to 30 years) at a double top from January 30, +115.
The Fed, being trapped into holding still on any suggestion of rate cuts, has inadvertently created a stagflationary environment. Remember that proposal a month ago to cap credit card rates at 10% for a year? Yeah, just like tariff revenue checks, lower food prices, and no new wars, another false promise from the Faker-in-Chief.
Spreads:
2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51
11/7: +56
11/14: +52
11/21: +55
11/28: +55
12/5: +58
12/12: +67
12/19: +68
12/26: +68
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61
11/7: +69
11/14: +70
11/21: +68
11/28: +62
12/5: +97
12/12: +109
12/19: +111
12/26: +111
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
Oil/Gas
As expected, with the Strait of Hormuz closed for a second week, the price of oil continued higher, with WTI crude ending the week at $97.20, up sharply from last week's $91.27, and from $67.29 two weeks ago. The main beneficiary being Russia, now able to sell its oil at temporarily-inflated prices after the U.S. eased back on sanctions. China, for what its worth, receives less than two percent of its overall energy needs from Iran, so they're hardly suffering at all. So far, the big losers are Europe and North America, especially the United States, where consumers are already suffering sticker shock at the pump.
Expect WTI crude to pop over $100/barrel soon, with a target of $150 within six weeks. What a bonanza. Maybe the U.S. can start more wars with oil producers, like, um, itself. Wait, what?
This Sunday morning (March 15), the U.S. national average rose to $3.69, from $3.46 last week, and $2.97 the week prior, according to gasbuddy.com. Might as well call it up 50 cents in one week.
California stayed right on top, at $5.51 per gallon, the highest in the nation and up 38 cents on the week. Washington was up 26 cents ($4.86) and is up 50 cents the past two weeks. Oregon ($4.41), is up 26 cents this week and 80 cents in just the past three weeks. Nevada ($4.56) and Arizona ($4.36) round out the five members of the $4+ contingent.
The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Kansas the lowest in the nation, at $3.11. Other nearby states in the region are Oklahoma and Arkansas ($3.19). From North Carolina ($3.51) west to New Mexico ($3.78, up $1.06 in two weeks), are all at $3.20 or higher, including Florida ($3.71, up 84 cents in two weeks).
In the Northeast, prices remained high and were seeking higher. This week, Massachusetts is the lowest ($3.51) with Pennsylvania the highest ($3.68).
In the midwest region, Illinois gapped another 23 cents to $3.71, up 66 cents in two weeks. Michigan, which rose 60 cents, to $3.58 last week, this week moderated back to $3.57. Kansas was the lowest ($3.11).
Sub-$3.00 gas was recorded in NO STATES, after being the norm for 40 of the lower 48 states two weeks ago. There's your short term pain, America. The long term gain, if and when it ever arrives, will be food prices not inflating more than 10% this year. Ya gotta love your government, folks.
Bitcoin
This week: $71,582.53
Last week: $67,310.05
2 weeks ago: $66,515.72
6 months ago: $115,383.40
One year ago: $84,415.52
Five years ago: $58,089.13
Trump and his criminal cabal likes crypto, so it must suck. This stuff is truly toxic.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 62.31; last week: 61.00;
Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 2/13: $5,063.80
Gold price 2/20: $5,108.34
Gold price 2/27: $5,296.40
Gold price 3/6: $5,181.30
Gold price 3/13: $5,023.10
Silver price 2/13: $77.27
Silver price 2/20: $84.57
Silver price 2/27: $94.39
Silver price 3/6: $84.69
Silver price 3/13: $80.64
SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 2/13: $5,041.72
Gold 2/20: $5,130.00
Gold 2/27: $5,278.05
Gold 3/6: $5,144.28
Gold 3/13: $5,022.11
Silver 2/13: $77.19
Silver 2/20: $84.57
Silver 2/27: $93.82
Silver 3/6: $84.33
Silver: 3/13: $80.60
One thing the war with Iran has effectively achieved has been diverting attention away from the criminality committed daily on the COMEX. This week, the assault came on Friday, just prior to the close for the week, taking gold down from $5,129 to as low as $5,008 on the spot market. Silver was spanked pretty hard as well, starting out Friday the 13th at $85.53 in Asia and as high as $84.48 at 9:00 am ET as U.S. markets opened, only to close at an absurd $80.45. One would suppose the cabal needed the weekend to scoop up loose change. The CME is run by criminals. There's nothing more to say.
The weekly survey of prices on eBay continued to reflect waning interest. Premia on small denominations has come down the past few weeks. Where this goes from here, nobody really knows, though spot prices in Shanghai are $92.84 for silver and $5,072 for gold.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
| 1 oz silver coin: | 88.00 | 112.50 | 95.45 | 90.95 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 85.55 | 102.86 | 96.56 | 97.36 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 5,162.00 | 5,404.93 | 5,272.68 | 5,269.49 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 5,185.52 | 5,415.21 | 5,249.61 | 5,233.57 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) continued to decline through Sunday, to $95.08, a loss of $5.26 from the March 8 price of $100.34 per troy ounce.
WEEKEND WRAP
The war in the Middle East isn't going to end soon, so Americans might want to buckle down a bit, pray for the best while planning for the worst. At this juncture, nothing coming out of the mouths of politicians or mainstream media should be trusted.
It's too bad. America used ot be a pretty nice place. It gets worse every day.
At the Close, Friday, March 13, 2026:
Dow: 46,558.47, -119.38 (-0.26%)
NASDAQ: 22,105.36, -206.62 (-0.93%)
S&P 500: 6,632.19, -40.43 (-0.61%)
NYSE Composite: 22,050.94, -67.76 (-0.31%)
For the Week:
Dow: -943.08 (-1.99%)
NASDAQ: -282.32 (-1.26%)
S&P 500: -107.83 (-1.60%)
NYSE Composite: -467.13 (-2.07%)
Dow Transports: -729.48 (-3.95%)
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