WEEKEND WRAP: American New Normal Emerging with $100 Crude Oil, $5.00 Gas, 4-5% Inflation, 5% Interest Rates and Volatile Stocks Near All-Time Highs

Following President Trump's rather fruitless trip to China and with zero resolution to condition in the Middle East, stock traders cashed out their options and sent stocks reeling on Friday, wiping out what looked to be another positive week on the maligned market for equities.

Also pertinent was the disdain for U.S. treasuries, especially on the long end with 30-year yields rocketing past five percent and 10-year yields spiking above 4.50%. Those represent starting points for Kevin Warsh's reign as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, starting June 1 and operationally serve as useful fodder for Trump's insistence for lower rates. Bond vigilantes are likely in broad disagreement, setting up some fireworks in the usually staid world of fixed income.

With oil flows still disrupted, the questioning public may query Big Oil and the government about why the U.S. exports oil at profit instead of serving the public interest by shoring up domestic supply, keeping the price of gas at the pump and in heating oil at sustainable levels. The cynical - and probably correct - answer is that the entities in control of U.S. energy supplies couldn’t care less about the needs of the citizenry.

Getting ever closer to a FU moment in the U.S., many patriotic serfs are gravitating away from the status quo, shedding political cover and moving closer to local and individual needs. Fiefdoms and regional warlords could become real things.

Last week's CPI and PPI readings were the worst in years, proving, once again, that central planners at the Fed and in the Treasury Department have their heads stuck firmly in the grips of their own anuses, a preferred position, it appears.

Moving on...

Stocks

Gains were completely wiped out by Friday's market dump, which looked very much like a rug-pull moment, but is not likely to be sustained. Wall Street, profitable on both sides of trades, does prefer gains over losses and all a deep dive does is put in place a rationale for buying the dip and sending stocks higher amid shouts from the Boaster-in-Chief about being the "hottest" (tell the truth, don't you hate when he says that?) economy in the world.

The week ahead will offer a piddling of dated first quarter results from suspect retailers and others. Since it's nearly June, these announcements will have little impact on current levels, as an economic shift is underway, but, here they are:

Monday: (before open) ReNew Power (RNW), Baidu (BIDU); (after close) Agilysis (AGYS)

Tuesday: (before open) Home Depot (HD), Vertiv (VRT); (after close) Toll Borthers (TOL), Red Robin (RRGB),

Wednesday: (before open) Target (TGT), Lowe's (LOW, TJX (TJX), Hasbro (HAS), Analog Devices (ADI); (after close) Nvidia (NVDA), Intuit (INTU), Urban Outfitters (URBN)

Thursday: (before open) Walmart (WMT), John Deere (DE), Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Ralph Lauren (RL); (after close) Deckers (DECK), Workday (WDAY), Ross Stores (ROST), Lionsgate (LION)

Friday: (before open) BJ's Wholesale (BJ), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

The outlook for the week ahead is clouded, to say the least. The ancient adage, "sell in May and go away," may be appropriate.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
04/10/2026	3.67	3.69	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.72	3.70
04/17/2026	3.69	3.70	3.73	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.64
04/24/2026	3.69	3.72	3.71	3.69	3.69	3.71	3.67
05/01/2026	3.71	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.76	3.71	3.73
05/08/2026	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.69	3.75	3.74	3.75
05/15/2026	3.71	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.76	3.77	3.82

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
04/10/2026	3.81	3.80	3.94	4.12	4.31	4.89	4.91
04/17/2026	3.71	3.72	3.84	4.04	4.26	4.85	4.88
04/24/2026	3.78	3.80	3.92	4.10	4.31	4.88	4.91
05/01/2026	3.88	3.91	4.02	4.20	4.39	4.96	4.97
05/08/2026	3.90	3.92	4.02	4.19	4.38	4.93	4.95
05/15/2026	4.09	4.14	4.26	4.43	4.59	5.14	5.12

Interest rates (yields) shot straight up late this week, the continuation of a trend that began in early 2022, at the end of the covid fright and start of the Ukraine fiasco when the Federal Funds target rate had been slashed to near zero. The evolving global economy necessitated rising yields to slow runaway inflation and that trend will likely be exacerbated by continuation of military escapades and choking off of supply chains.

Amid a frightening and increasingly-polarized global economic oulook, lending money to the heavily-indebted U.S. government at any maturity longer than a year might raise the question of "return of equity" bayond the usual "return on equity."

At 10 years, a reasonable expectation might be in the range of 5.50-6.25% and beyond that for 30-year bonds, which may be nearing an extinction level event, precipitating the need for false-fronting "stablecoins" which are nothing more than currency chimeras and utterly worthless.

Rates sprung forward over the past week, with a spike of 19 basis points in 2-year notes, 21 on the 10-year and 17 on the 30-year sending spreads into the stratosphere, with 2s-10s at an even +50 and full spectrum topping out at a ghastly +141.

While certain borrowers may drool over the lavish boosts in yields, longer term trends suggest an unhappy ending with the journey to insolvency a minefield of failed policy and nervy speculation. For the U.S. and other debt-laden governments, the costs of servicing their bloated borrowings will outstrip all other expenditures, guaranteeing the ultimate default. Argentina has shown the way. Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Europe will precede the U.S. down that unhappy pathway.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141

Oil/Gas

WTI Crude Oil finished the week in New York at $101.16, higher substantially from last Friday’s New York closing price of $94.68, though still in the recent range of $90-110.

President Trump's wasted China visit late in the week sent stocks lower and oil prices higher. With no resolution in the Middle East, the stalemate between the U.S. and Iran may move in unanticipated directions. With Iran in control over the Strait of Hormuz and a U.S. naval blockade further out in the Golf of Oman and into the India Ocean, it should be expected that alternative routes will develop and they have, with Iran employing the Caspian Sea and rail routes east to Pakistan and China. Eventually, Iran has an upper hand, given that the number of oil tankers exiting the Persian Gulf outnumbers U.S. ships able to intercept them.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.50 last week and $4.48 this week, little changed. Americans increasingly are begrudgingly accepting their fate of higher gas prices, but are beginning to express displeasure with government policies, feeling the weight of their chains, so to speak. Intentioal or otherwise, the federal government and many states and localities are pressuring middle and lower-income families, stretching household budgets near breaking points. Unless the president changes course soon or congress gets off their lazy, overdeveloped rumps, the likelihood of mass civil disobedience increases.

In the meantime, Americans, having been through gas hikes and energy crises before, are adjusting and conserving wherever possible, though further increases in food and energy prices may be too much too bear

Prices in key states:

California (leader): $6.13 (-0.01)
Washington: $5.76 (+0.00)
Oklahoma (lowest): $3.95 (+0.03)
Florida: $3.17 (-0.25)
Illinois: $5.05 (+0.09)
Pennsylvania: $4.62 (-0.05)
New York: $4.58 (+0.03)
Maryland: $4.45 (-0.01)
Michigan: $4.83 (+0.12)
Texas: $3.92 (-0.11)
Georgia: $3.96 (-0.07)

On Sunday, May 17th, there are just four (5) states with average prices below $4.00 (Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Georgia, up from 4 last week, and 43 above the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.65) and Alaska ($4.26), four above $5 (California, Nevada, Washington, Oregon), and one above $6 (California). The Southeast has become the lowest region overall over the past week as the averaging right around $4.00 in places like Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi.

Bitcoin (aka, Trash)

This week: $78,015.76
Last week: $80,800.68
2 weeks ago: $78,694.80
6 months ago: $90,089.49
One year ago: $103,298.00
Five years ago: $37,482.21

"Hodlers" of six months to a year are down sharply, with only deep thinkers like Michael Saylor keeping the faith. With the U.S. congress moving forward on the CLARITY act this past week, the tom-foolery approaches the highest level of clown world. Cynthia Lummis, junior senator from Wyoming, otherwise known as Cheneyland, leads the charge toward government sponsored CBDCs.

From Wikipedia:

Lummis graduated from the University of Wyoming with a Bachelor of Science degree in animal science in 1976 and a Bachelor of Science in biology in 1978. She graduated from the University of Wyoming with a Juris Doctor in 1985, and was on the dean's list. She worked as a student teacher at Rock River School in 1977.

The perfect choice to sponsor crypto legislation.

What the world needs is a new currency regime based on gold and silver, not vaporware cryptocurrencies. Guess which one the government favors most. The people operating the govenment are about as useful as an umbrella during a hurricane.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 59.75; last week: 58.68

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 4/17: $4,849.40
Gold price 4/24: $4,725.40
Gold price 5/1: $4,625.60
Gold price 5/8: $4,723.70
Gold price 5/15: $4,543.60

Silver price 4/17: $81.58
Silver price 4/24: $76.19
Silver price 5/1: $75.84
Silver price 5/8: $80.83
Silver price 5/15: $76.29

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 4/17: $4,833.56
Gold 4/24: $4,709.27
Gold 5/1: $4,612.97
Gold 5/8: $4,714.90
Gold 5/15: $4,539.72

Silver: 4/17: $80.75
Silver 4/24: $75.63
Silver 5/1: $75.34
Silver 5/8: $80.35
Silver 5/15: $75.94

On Friday, with stocks hammered within the international geo-political stalemate, it made perfect sense for precious metals to take sizable losses. Actually, no. The LBMA/COMEX cabal complex continues operational, suppressing prices, albeit at higher levels than years prior. Taking everything into perspective, gold and silver may continue to be affected negatively if stocks continue to vacillate and national economies begin to falter into recession.

The alternative - converting to fiat - is not very attractive, though selling off part of one's stack for ready cash may prove to be prescient. On the other hand, precious metals are meant to be hedges against currency debasement and all manner of economic events. How one manages one's wealth all depends on personal perspectives, portfolio allocations, and investment horizons. To each his own, it seems, riding the waves in the economic lifeboats of choice.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	78.95	99.59	87.01	87.48
1 oz silver bar:	80.00	92.25	86.44	87.38
1 oz gold coin:	4736.77	4859.65	4776.06	4771.83
1 oz gold bar:	4716.01	4785.00	4742.79	4742.30

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell modestly, to $87.08, a decline of $1.59 from the May 10 price of $88.67 per troy ounce and within the recent range.

WEEKEND WRAP

An inclination to utter cynical or pessimistic phrases to describe current economic conditions may be a sign of extreme dissatisfaction and completely normal. Disruptions to the regular flow of goods, services and the normal functioning of national economies has been fomented by reckless and feckless leadership of Western nations, especially in the United States.

It's perfectly OK to occasionally utter "screw this" or "F them" in response to conditions created to subjugate the human race in favor of a handful of elitists with megalomaniacal intentions.

If so, you've got plenty of miserable company.

At the Close, Friday, May 15, 2026:
Dow: 49,526.17, -537.29 (-1.07%)
NASDAQ: 26,225.15, -410.08 (-1.54%)
S&P 500: 7,408.50, -92.74 (-1.24%)
NYSE Composite: 22,799.43, -302.42 (-1.31%)

For the Week:
Dow: -82.99 (-0.17%)
NASDAQ: -21.94 (-0.08%)
S&P 500: +9.57 (+0.13%)
NYSE Composite: -142.72 (-0.62%)
Dow Transports: -64.56 (-0.32%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Trump China Trip Produces Little in Terms of Resolution to Iran or Taiwan; Stock Market Sniffing Out America's Weaknesses; Oil over $100

Trump's China trip is over, with nothing substantial coming from it. There was some talk about a deal for China to order 200 planes from Boeing, and possibly as many as 750, though details were sketchy, like everything else Trump touches and touts as wins.

The trip was a PR stunt from the start and Wall Street has apparently sniffed it out and is in the process of selling the news after buying the rumor. The president brought an entourage of large tech company CEOs with him, an attempt to woo China towards more support for American companies breaking into the vast Chinese market. The effort seemed to go well on the surface, but beneath the sheen, nothing of consequence has been reported. It's likely that China was simply being polite to the U.S., rather than pressing hard on various issues.

China's president Xi did manage to sneak in some snark, suggesting that America was a declining nation. Trump scrambled to find a retort via social media, once again blaming Joe Biden and his administration for America's decline and stating once again that the U.S. is the "hottest" country on the planet. The rhetoric has grown cold and stale and fools nobody.

Thus, stocks are set to open Friday with a very downbeat tone and bond yields have broken out to the upside as investors demand more for their money.

Up until Thursday's closing bell, stocks were doing just swell. For the week, through Thursday, the Dow was up 454 points, the NASDAQ ahead by a whopping 388, with the S&P adding 102.

With options expiry on Friday, there's certain to be a good degree of volatility though nothing has really changed in the overall market structure or global geo-politics. The Strait of Hormuz remains a choke-point for oil. Ukraine unresolved, inflation headed higher in the U.S.

Yield on the 30-year bond has burned through the five percent line and the 10-year yield stands at 4.56%, suggesting that bond buyers are affirming the existence of much higher inflation in months ahead.

While the set-up for Friday looks threatening, with Dow futures down 435, NASDAQ futures off 495, S&P futures giving back 86 points, and WTI crude futures hitting $100 this morning, there isn't any apparent sign of a rug-pull moment, though everybody knows it's overdue. Insiders need to keep stocks rising, but there are only so many suckers and profit-taking may render any dip-buying a moot point.

At the Close, Thursday, May 14, 2026:
Dow: 50,063.46, +370.26 (+0.75%)
NASDAQ: 26,635.22, +232.88 (+0.88%)
S&P 500: 7,501.24, +56.99 (+0.77%)
NYSE Composite: 23,101.85, +128.29 (+0.56%)

Stocks Continue Higher Despite Inflation Terror; Trump's China Gambit a Ruse; Rug Pull or Maybe Not?

So much for Wall Street coming to its senses over inflation.

After Tuesday's CPI showed consumer inflation increasing at a 3.8% annual rate and Wednesday's April PPI shoving the inflation agenda further up the chain with this sobering comment from the BLS...

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.4 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.7 percent in March and 0.6 percent in February. The April increase is the largest advance since rising 1.7 percent in March 2022. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 6.0 percent for the 12 months ended in April, the largest 12-month increase since moving up 6.4 percent in December 2022.

... stocks opened to the downside but continued rallying the rest of the session after the big money guys had a goo 15-minute laugh. Shorts, as usual, were carried out on stretchers after one of the more quintessential head fakes in recent days. While the Dow and NYSE Composite finished in the red, their hues were more like the blush of a pink rose than fire truck tone by the end of the session.

More and more money flowed into tech stocks with the NASDAQ and S&P indices posting record highs. The Shiller PE ended the day at 42.32.

There isn't even a hint of pullback or correction in the charts or the general optimism. Stocks have to go up. The stock market is about the only thing on which the president, Republicans, tech bros., and the MAGA folks can hang their hats. Everything else, from Iran to inflation, to employment has, or is about to go tits up. Despite the continuing destruction of the empire, stocks save the day, every day, and will be expected to do so until there comes a rug pull, or, possibly, forever.

With the 30-year bond yielding 5.03% for two days running and the 10-year note yield stuck at 4.46, the perception is that stocks have become essential to survival. Yields go up, bond prices go down. Investors are finally demanding consummate return on their long-term risk profiles. The only surprising thing about five percent on the 30-year is that it's taken so long to get there.

The U.S., via its best carnival barker's tweets and threats, on the surface appears to be doing just fine. A peek under the hood, so to speak, reveals busted pipes and a sputtering industrial motor that's low on oil and in need of massive repair. Major infrastructure in the U.S. is aging and hasn't been sufficiently upgraded in decades. Asian countries are advancing. The West, ever so slowly, is committing suicide by a thousand cuts.

As the opening bell approaches, the Washington/Wall Street narrative seems to be holding. After all, isn't the president in China, telling Xi Jinping and anybody within earshot what a great poker hand he's playing? Bluffing won't work with China... or Russia... or even Iran. There are a lot of undercurrents advancing on the stock con. The U.S. stopped issuing a public measure of the underground economy in the 1980s. This laughable article estimates it at five percent of GDP in the U.S. when it's probably more like 25%, especially considering the GDP numbers are largely government spending and full up on pork and bunk. During the prohibition era of the 1920s, the underground economy was larger than the "above-board" official economy.

Governments everywhere, at the local, state and federal level, need to institute more new taxes and raise rates on those that already exist to see just how compliant Americans might be. Sooner or later, milking the same cow without offering it better feed ends up dry well. It will give, right up until it doesn't.

Run more deficits, borrow more money, abuse the population. FAFO.

At the Close, Wednesday, May 13, 2026:
Dow: 49,693.20, -67.36 (-0.14%)
NASDAQ: 26,402.34, +314.14 (+1.20%)
S&P 500: 7,444.25, +43.29 (+0.58%)
NYSE Composite: 22,973.56, -41.79 (-0.18%)

Trump In China for PR Stunt; No Major Developments Expected; Stocks Reel as PPI is Highest in Three Years; Futures Tanking, Oil Rising

President Trump has arrived in Beijing Wednesday morning for his engagement with President Xi Jinping of China. The trip will be short, just two days - May 14 and 15 - with a loaded agenda. Among relevant issues the two leaders will discuss are the Iran war, the state of affairs concerning Taiwan, bi-lateral trade agreements, and a host of other tangential topics for discussion.

How anybody can take seriously a two-day "summit" stretches credulity to the breaking point. The usually-suspect American angle is to play up progress via tweets and TB coverage which will no doubt lean toward the positive. The last meeting between China and America's heads of state produced a tariff truce, which actually had Mr. Deal, President Trump, significantly backing off from a hardline stance.

One notable element is the U.S. delegation, including top executives from some of the most powerful - and mainly tech - U.S. companies.

The business delegation is supposed to include executives from Tesla (TSLA), Apple (AAPL), Boeing (BA), GE Aerospace (GE), Meta Platforms (META), BlackRock (BLK), Blackstone (BX), Micron (MU), Mastercard (MA), Qualcomm (QCOM), Visa (V), Cargill, Coherent (COHR) and Illumina (ILMN) in part or in whole. Cisco (CSCO) was invited but its CEO is not attending, along with NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang.

With Iran high on the Trump-Xi agenda, another conspiracy theory became conspiracy fact. Interesting article on climate change and weather modification used as an offensive weapon against Iran for years violating a long-standing climate treaty.

With Trump winging his way to talks, stock investors looked to April PPI, coming fast on the heels of Tuesday's CPI hot inflation reading of 3.8%. What they got from the BLS was an outright disaster.

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.4 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.7 percent in March and 0.6 percent in February. The April increase is the largest advance since rising 1.7 percent in March 2022. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 6.0 percent for the 12 months ended in April, the largest 12-month increase since moving up 6.4 percent in December 2022.

Nearly 60 percent of the April rise in final demand prices can be attributed to a 1.2-percent advance in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods moved up 2.0 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.6 percent in April, the largest advance since rising 0.6 percent in October 2025. For the 12 months ended in April, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 4.4 percent, the largest 12-month increase since jumping 4.5 percent in February 2023.

At the producer level, these price movements have been trending higher for months, though neither the Fed, the White House, or the major news media seem interested in reporting the galloping inflation facing U.S. consumers. However, Wall Street took notice, sending stock futures screaming lower on the release of the data.

With the opening bell less than an hour ahead, Dow futures were slashed 258 points, NASDAQ futures were up 63 points, but well off earlier highs, and S&P futures were beginning to tank, down a mere points, but trending lower.

Wall Street can manage to overlook or spin data in a myriad of ways, but it appears that few appreciate higher consumer prices and producer costs. While America heads for a Weimar moment, President Trump is doing nothing to alleviate the situation, preferring to put on a media show via a high-level confab with the greatest nemesis to the U.S.

Little, if anything is expected from the two-day visit as there were no advance preparations to speak of and the short time element suggests that Trump's visit - much like everything else the "peace president" cooks up - is nothing but a PR event.

Along with stock futures, bitcoin is headed lower Wednesday morning while WTI crude oil edges higher, sitting at $102/barrel. Precious metals are pretty much flat, with silver holding $86 and gold dropped below $4,680, but recovering.

Time to find solutions is running short for President Trump in hotspots like Iran and Ukraine. He continues to lose support of MAGA faithful and independents, unsurprising given his attitude and adventurous antics which have largely caused chaos around the world and rapidly-rising inflation in the United States. While Trump may continue to insist that the U.S. is the "hottest" country in the world, he would do himself a favor by not making that claim too loudly or too often because the American people have had it up to their eyeballs with a president that has broken campaign promises, enriched himself and his co-conspirators, and is making a mockery of presidential leadership.

If there's a trend developing at all, it is the American public's distaste turning to righteous anger against a president that was a lame duck the moment he won his second term of office and Wall Street is beginning to take notice.

At the Close, Tuesday, May 12, 2026:
Dow: 49,760.56, +56.09 (+0.11%)
NASDAQ: 26,088.20, -185.92 (-0.71%)
S&P 500: 7,400.96, -11.88 (-0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 23,015.35, +44.58 (+0.19%)

CPI Comes In Red Hot, Inflation Rising at 3.8% Annually; Trump, Republicans Likely to Lose Midterms, Won't Matter to Wall Street; Silver Breaks Out, $93 Next Target

U.S. midterm elections are November 3rd. That date deserves attention as the calendar puts us at less than six months away.

Individual winners and losers in the bi-annual popularity contest may not matter as much as which party will have a majority in the House and Senate, and, in the end it's one big uni-party, from a tactical perspective inside the D.C. beltway, the results offer more than just optics. Partisan politics being the preferred order of the U.S. system, policy will emerge from majority rule and chair positions on important committees.

According to reportage by The Conversation, the party holding the presidency has lost seats in 18 of the last 20 encounters, an eighty-year span beginning in 1946. For the MAGA cohort, this sends bad vibes which may result in Mr. Trump's third impeachment attempt by Democrats, though the most salient condition obtained from Republicans losing their razor-thin majority in the House is that any new or proposed legislation would likely be dead on arrival.

A flip in the House also neutralizes the Senate, no matter which party ends up with a majority. For U.S. business interests, this is a total win. Whenever official Washington goes into gridlock, the prospect of at least two years without government meddling into the affairs of companies large and small elicits loud howls of joy. If new highs on the stock market are a goal, vote Democrat!

The only times a sitting president's party gained seats were in 1998 (Clinton, +5) and 2002 (Bush, +8), back-to-back wins, one for each party. In those years, the presidential approval rating was exceedingly high. Clinton was at 66%, Bush at 63%. Since then, no president has polled higher than 45% heading into midterms (Obama, first term, 2010). For all the noise and clamor over the upcoming vote, it looks to be pretty much settled that Republicans are doomed. President Trump's most recent average approval rating is a meager 41% and the generic congressional vote favors Democrats over Republicans, 48.6%-42.6%.

Doomsday cometh.

Surprising nobody, the White House and the Republican election machinery is fully engaged toward reversing the trend, but it seems a fool’s errand. Unless economic and foreign policy conditions soon change radically, Democrats stand to turn the tables in November.

Shiller PE: 42.15

Roughly speaking, the S&P 500 would need to rise another 285 points in order for the Shiller PE to surpass the all-time high of 44.18. Given that the S&P is already up 567.34 points (8.29%) year-to-date one might assume that this particular "mother of all bubbles" would make the grade some time within the next few months.

The juggernaut that is the stock market seems to have no limit, no wall of worry to climb, and not much in the way of historical perspective. Because that record high occurred in December of 1999, market historians will note that in the first few months of 2000, the NASDAQ took an abrupt turn. The late 1990s and into the first three months of 2000 marked a period of rapid growth in U.S. technology stock prices, driven by speculation and heavy investment in startups with little to no profits.

Somewhat the same could be said of the current environment. Where the 1990s had the internet boom and dot-com stocks, the 2020s has embraced AI as the next great thing. Leading tech companies - Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Google, Apple, et. al., are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in data centers, infrastructure, and power plants, bent on riding the crest of the AI wave.

There will be no stopping stocks reaching record after record over the next six months and probably further into 2027. Despite plenty of evidence that the U.S. economy is a running on fumes. Foreign policy under Trump has been an unmitigated disaster. Wall Street doesn't care, so long as more money is directed into stocks, ETFs, IRAs, retirement accounts, and mutual funds.

Inflation, as measured by the CPI, will fan the flames even more. Asset inflation always leads consumer inflation, and this time is no different. Tuesday morning, the BLS released April CPI. Here's what they said:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after rising 0.9 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for energy rose 3.8 percent in April, accounting for over forty percent of the monthly all items increase. The shelter index also increased in April, rising 0.6 percent. The index for food increased 0.5 percent over the month as the index for food at home rose 0.7 percent and the index for food away from home increased 0.2 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in April. Indexes that increased over the month include household furnishings and operations, airline fares, personal care, apparel, and education. Conversely, the indexes for new vehicles, communication, and medical care were among the major indexes that decreased in April.

The all items index rose 3.8 percent for the 12 months ending April, after rising 3.3 percent for the 12 months ending March. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.8 percent over the year, following a 2.6 percent increase over the 12 months ending March. The energy index increased 17.9 percent for the 12 months ending April. The food index increased 3.2 percent over the last year.

The major damage from Trump's blustering and blundering in the Mid East, all at the behest of his pal, Bibi Netanyahu, hasn't even begun to be assessed. The knee-jerk reaction comes in the form of stock futures, which didn't skyrocket the moment the news was announced as they usually do, but barely budged. Some indication that Wall Street isn't exactly giddy over prospects for higher and higher consumer prices can be inferred and a mini-rally in gold and silver offers more evidence that the ongoing rally may be interrupted for a day or so.

Gold hit a one-month high on Monday, but silver was the real deal, making a breakout move over 80.70, the most recent high (April 17). Kitko marked the close in New York at 85.98, though other sources have it at 86.10. Either way, the move was expected and significant, pointing the silver price - as maligned and testy as it is - toward the next milestone, $93, and then, beyond. With the usually strong summer months in focus for precious metals, a slingshot move higher may now be in the cards. Both gold and silver sold off overnight, but th pair is rallying heading into the U.S. sessions.

As 9:00 am ET approached stock futures began moving higher, sending Dow futures marginally into positive territory. S&P futures remained subdued, down 20 points, while NASDAQ futures seek a pullback, down 218 heading toward the opening bell.

There were no big interests reporting earnings late Monday or early Tuesday, though hims|hers (HIMS), purveyors of questionable adult products like virility enhancers for men and perfumed soaps for women, went flaccid, dropping 16% pre-open on a first quarter earnings miss and discouraging guidance. Sorry, honey, not tonight.

Silver miner, First Majestic (AG), continued strong performance with an earnings beat and solid guidance. The stock is flat heading into the open. On an earnings beat and raised guidance, JD.com (JD) wins the morning, up about one percent in pre-market trading.

The CPI reading may only disrupt money flows for as little as a few hours or possibly a day or two, as PPI is the next hurdle, the April figures due out tomorrow.

Otherwise, buy the dip?

At the Close, Monday, May 11, 2026:
Dow: 49,704.47, +95.31 (+0.19%)
NASDAQ: 26,274.13, +27.05 (+0.10%)
S&P 500: 7,412.84, +13.91 (+0.19%)
NYSE Composite: 22,970.77, +28.62 (+0.12%)