Owning stocks over the past few months proved that it pays not to panic. Major averages are back to about even for the year after torrid trading to the upside in four of the last six weeks. Shorts have been, as it's said, carried out on stretchers, the negative point of view replaced by giddy acceptance of the new narrative inspired by President Trump and his deal-making travels throughout the Middle East.
Who knew reshaping the nature of global commerce could be accomplished in less than six months?
Stocks
The gains on major indices were outlandish, especially on the NASDAQ (+7.15%), outdone by the Dow Transports, which were up 1119.01 (+7.97%) on the week. Over the past month, stocks have moved from well below their 50 and 200-day moving averages to just above them on the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ, and NYSE Composite. Only the moribund Dow Transports are still slumping, but, if this week signaled that investors simply will not tolerate bear markets for more than a few weeks, then expect the transportation sector to continue rallying.
At the current pace, stocks should be challenging all-time highs within weeks. At least, that's how it appears to be going. Only congress (not to mention the horde of activist federal judges), in its own sad manner, seems capable of derailing the Trump agenda for a "golden age." The House Budget Committee failed to move Trump's preferred "big, beautiful bill" to a full vote, with five Republicans joining all 16 Democrats on the committee, defeating it in a 21-16 defeat for the MAGA crowd.
The bill has more than its share of lumps, from outsized budgetary funding for defense to cuts in social programs. It's far less than perfect and will need tweaking and probably some arm-twisting. Congress seems capable of and perfectly happy to keep with its habit of overspending and working with continuing resolutions rather than passing an actual budget. If anything can torpedo positive momentum on Wall Street, congress is surely equal to the task.
Otherwise, it's not just Trump making deals. The big news this week was Dick's Sporting Goods acquiring Foot Locker, the deal expected to close in the second half. The merger agreement was unanimously approved by the boards of directors of both companies. Foot Locker shareholders can opt for either $24 in cash or 0.1168 shares of Dick’s common stock for each share of Foot Locker common stock, the companies said in a statement.
The stream of first quarter earnings has become but a trikle, with Home Depot, Lowe's and Target the major companies reporting this week. Here's the rundown:
Monday: (before open) Ryanair (RYAAY), Compugen (CGEN); (after close) Trip.com (TCOM)
Tuesday: (before open) Viking Cruise Lines (VIK), Home Depot (BD); (after close) Palo Alto (PANW), Viasat (VSAT), Toll Brothers (TOL)
Wednesday: (before open) Baidu (BIDU), Medtronic (MDT), Lowe's (LOW), Target (TGT); (after close) Urban Outfitters (URBN), American Superconductor (AMSC)
Thursday: (before open) Advance Auto Parts (AAP), BJ's Wholesale (BJ), Analog Devices (ADI), Ralph Lauren (RL), TD Bank (TD), Williams-Sonoma (WSM); (after close) Autodesk (ADSK), Workday (WDAY), Ross Stores (ROST), Lionsgate (LION), Intuit (INTU), Deckers (DECK).
Data is on the light side this coming week, with April new and existing home sales likely to be the most impactful release.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
Date |
1 Mo |
1.5 mo |
2 Mo |
3 Mo |
4 Mo |
6 Mo |
1 Yr |
04/11/2025 |
4.37 |
4.35 |
4.38 |
4.34 |
4.35 |
4.21 |
4.04 |
04/17/2025 |
4.36 |
4.35 |
4.38 |
4.34 |
4.35 |
4.22 |
3.99 |
04/25/2025 |
4.34 |
4.37 |
4.36 |
4.32 |
4.32 |
4.22 |
3.95 |
05/02/2025 |
4.38 |
4.36 |
4.34 |
4.33 |
4.41 |
4.26 |
4.00 |
05/09/2025 |
4.37 |
4.36 |
4.34 |
4.34 |
4.40 |
4.28 |
4.05 |
05/16/2025 |
4.37 |
4.36 |
4.34 |
4.37 |
4.42 |
4.30 |
4.13 |
Date |
2 Yr |
3 Yr |
5 Yr |
7 Yr |
10 Yr |
20 Yr |
30 Yr |
04/11/2025 |
3.96 |
3.98 |
4.15 |
4.32 |
4.48 |
4.91 |
4.85 |
04/17/2025 |
3.81 |
3.82 |
3.95 |
4.13 |
4.34 |
4.82 |
4.80 |
04/25/2025 |
3.74 |
3.76 |
3.88 |
4.06 |
4.29 |
4.75 |
4.74 |
05/02/2025 |
3.83 |
3.82 |
3.92 |
4.11 |
4.33 |
4.81 |
4.79 |
05/09/2025 |
3.88 |
3.85 |
4.00 |
4.18 |
4.37 |
4.86 |
4.83 |
05/16/2025 |
3.98 |
3.95 |
4.06 |
4.24 |
4.43 |
4.92 |
4.89 |
Spreads remained high, with full spectrum reaching an unprecedented level of +52 while 2s-10s remained elevated at +45. There's still stress in the system, manifested by the rising 10-year note yield, the highest in five weeks and daringly close to the "make or break" level at 4.50%. Likewise, the 30-year note yielding close to five percent indicates the rather obvious preference of risk assets (stocks) over treasuries and other fixed-income instruments.
Animal spirits have been once again released from cages on Wall Street, the speculative fury for stocks pressuring the bond market. In the current atmosphere, rate cuts might be more wishful thinking than anything else.
Adding to pressure on long-dated maturities was Friday's U.S. debt downgrade from AAA to AA1 by Moody's, joining Standard & Poor’s, which downgraded the U.S. to AA+ from AAA in August, 2011, and Fitch Ratings, which cut the U.S. rating to AA+ from AAA, in August, 2023.
If it was even possible, the treasury yield curve continued to flatten, with a complete spread of just 0.94% between the low (3-year, 3.95) to the high (30-year, 4.89%). Should the U.S. federal government continue running massive deficits, as opposed to showing ANY fiscal restraint, rates will continue to rise as investors take flight from the supposed "risk-free" trade in U.S. treasuries.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
Oil/Gas
WTI crude oil closed out the week in New York trading at a price of $62.49, versus last Friday's 61.06. Two weeks ago the closing price was $58.38, which was the lowest level since February, 2021. Oil's gain on the week appears to stem from an oversold condition. Oil futures are in backwardation, the forward price of the futures contract is lower than the spot price, implying high inventory levels. With production increases by OPEC+ about to take effect in June, future prices are understandingly lower through January, 2026, bottoming out at $59.99.
Futures prices are reflecting what global markets are currently broadcasting: no global recession, no supply chain chaos, low inflation, happy talk all around. The "good times" narrative has taken hold of most markets.
Gas prices simply refuse to come down. Retailers apparently respond immediately to gains in the price of oil, slowly to declines, as the lows from two weeks ago barely registered. The national average was $3.12. Demand being inelastic, oil companies and retailers rely on a mobile consumer for profits.
Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.17, up seven cents from last week.
The high price remained the province of California at $4.88, up seven cents on the week. Mississippi retained the low spot at $2.65. The only other state reporting a fuel price under $2.70 is Tennessee ($2.68). Louisiana is right at $2.70, followed by South Carolina ($2.73) and Alabama ($2.74). In Oklahoma, the price is $2.78. Texas, $2.79; Arkansas, $2.80. Florida's foray below $3.00 lasted less than a week. It's currently $3.02.
The Northeast continues to be led by Pennsylvania ($3.29). New England and East coast states all range between $2.88 (New Hampshire) and $3.10 (Maryland). Prices are overall slightly higher than last week.
Midwest states are led by Illinois ($3.36), the price a nickel lower than last week. Kansas ($2.83) is the lowest, followed by Kentucky ($2.88) and Missouri ($2.91) Indiana drivers are paying $3.19, a substantial increase from last week's $3.07. Similarly, Michigan's prices rose from $3.05 last week to $3.18 currently.
Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, higher, at at $4.31. Oregon ($3.91) and Nevada ($3.89) are seeing higher prices this week as well. Arizona appeared headed for sub-$3.00, down to $3.26 last week, bouncing back up to $3.40. Neighboring New Mexico is a relative bargain at $2.92, though that's 14 cents higher than last week. Idaho and neighboring Utah were the most stable, at $3.24 and $3.25, respectively.
Sub-$3.00 gas is found in fewer states this week than last, with just 21 hitting the mark. Prospects of lower gas prices for American drivers seem to be fading along with fear of recession.
Bitcoin
This week: $103,888.10
Last week: $104,416.70
2 weeks ago: $95,497.28
6 months ago: $91,546.89
One year ago: $66,680.90
Five years ago: $9,177.64
Bitcoin has stalled out in a range of $102,000 to $104,000, possibly reflecting the holdup in the U.S. Senate of the GENIUS act, which failed to break out of committee two weeks ago. There is supposedly a cloture vote upcoming, possibly as early as Monday, according to sources close to Senate majority leader John Thune. The bill, sponsored by Tennessee Senator Bill Haggerty, who probably knows more about gambling than crypto-currencies, provides "safeguards" for consumers (AKA: more furious fleecing).
Senators Kirsten Gillebrand (NY) and Cynthia Lummis (WY) are also vocal supporters of the bill. Democrats and a handful of Republicans previously sent the bill to failure over concerns of conflicts of interest and insider dealing, a topic upon which most legislators on Capitol Hill are intimately familiar. The humor is not lost on cynics over the name "GENIUS" in the bill, as Senate IQs are generally well below what would be considered higher intellectual levels.
The usual talk about bitcoin breaking further upwards towards $200,000 and beyond has been tamped down as regulations on what was originally hailed as "new money" or "21st century gold" move bitcoin and all the other garbage in the crypto-universe closer to the mainstream. Wall Street loves it, which is, in itself, a good reason to dis-engage from speculation on imaginary digital currencies.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 98.84; last week: 101.25
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 4/20: $3,341.30
Gold price 4/27: $3,330.20
Gold price 5/2: $3,247.40
Gold price 5/9: $3,329.10
Gold price 5/16: $3,205.30
Silver price 4/20: $32.54
Silver price 4/27: $33.34
Silver price 5/2: $32.18
Silver price 5/9: $32.88
Silver price 5/16: $32.43
Gold suffered a massive markdown in the futures and at spot. Futures fell by nearly $125 on the week, the result of Wall Street's mood change from bearish behavior to a renewed bullish outlook. If interest rates remain high and the U.S. economy perks up, gold is likely to stagnate if not decline further.
The opposite might be said of silver, which lost just 45 cents on the week, a minuscule decline compared to gold, sending the gold:silver ratio below 100 and towards something more realistic. Because of its properties as an industrial metal as opposed to gold's strictly monetary function, silver might gain as gold declines over coming months.
This is not to say that either metal is overvalued. It's more a perception that the U.S. dollar will regain strength as the Trump agenda begins to be clarified and gradually implemented. It would not be a stretch of imagination to see gold at $3000 and silver at $38.50, implying a GSR in a range of 76-79. While that's still degrees of magnitude higher than historical precedents of 12 to 16, it is worthy of consideration. Silver has been the most undervalued commodity for decades, though re-industrialization on a global level might change the math and the attitude in the futures market. A return of silver as a medium of exchange being highly unlikely, it remains a relatively inexpensive means of storing value.
While there was recently a mini-rush into gold at the retail level, recent price fluctuations may have put the kibosh on projections for $4000 or even $5000 gold over the near term. Central bank buying - or the lack thereof - will tell the true story of where gold's price is headed. Silver seems headed on its own path.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
Item/Price |
Low |
High |
Average |
Median |
1 oz silver coin: |
36.21 |
43.49 |
39.77 |
39.63 |
1 oz silver bar: |
38.00 |
44.95 |
40.40 |
40.00 |
1 oz gold coin: |
3,348.90 |
3,457.99 |
3,404.60 |
3,413.78 |
1 oz gold bar: |
3,335.78 |
3,410.32 |
3,367.75 |
3,368.62 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell sharply through the week, to $39.95, a $1.87 decline from the May 11 price of $41.82 per troy ounce.
WEEKEND WRAP
Seeing is believing, and passive investors will be seeing some healthy gains in their portfolios shortly. Playing along with any narrative du jour is looking like the new normal, good, bad, or otherwise.
At the Close, Friday, May 16, 2025:
Dow: 42,654.74, +331.99 (+0.78%)
NASDAQ: 19,211.10, +98.78 (+0.52%)
S&P 500: 5,958.38, +41.45 (+0.70%)
NYSE Composite: 19,934.06, +149.37 (+0.75%)
For the Week:
Dow: +1,405.36 (+3.41%)
NASDAQ: +1,282.18 (+7.15%)
S&P 500: +298.47 (+5.27%)
NYSE Composite: +614.86 (+3.18%)
Dow Transports: +1119.01 (+7.97%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.