The conditions of ceasefire and blockade in the Middle East region have effectively taken Iran, Israel, and war off the front pages and relegated them back to an ongoing overview status in regards to media coverage. Without bombs and missiles blunting and blurring the skies and destroying buildings, infrastructure, military and civilian assets, and people, the war with Iran has become dull, repetitive, and boring.
Every day, the same readouts come from the usual suspect sources: the White House, Centcom, Iran, Pakistan, Israel, and Lebanon. Another tanker has been seized. A few more have been turned away at the Strait of Hormuz. Israel intercepts missiles fired by Hezbollah. Negotiations are on, then off, then on again. Little changes, so the media moves on to other areas of public concern. Case in point: Saturday night's media-political confab known as the White House Correspondents Dinner, interrupted by a lone patsy gunman predisposed to wreak havoc. It's the news of the day, supplanting any tired narratives or propaganda emanating from the Middle East.
Current conditions in the Middle East and outward into the Indian Ocean suit the Trump administration's agenda perfectly. From running an increasingly-tenuous narrative of "winning", to a more easily-managed message of control - whether it be in terms of the flow of oil or the back-and-forth of negotiations - the war has degraded, purposely, into another long, drawn out slog by which the MIC, the Pentagon, and the White House, can control the messaging and further their ultimate intention of spending U.S. tax and borrowed dollars on weapons, arms, machinery of war, soldiers, sailors, generals, admirals, think tanks, and advisors.
The wheels have been greased. The hands are outstretched. More money for defense, or, in current presidential terminology, war.
A complete, utter, unforgivable waste while the United States circles the economic drain, taking Europe and emerging economies down with it.
If the president continues to believe he has the right cards to play, he's likely headed for a royal flush.
Stocks
Stocks, other than the magnificent semi sector on the NASDAQ, took a breather after three weeks of torrid gains. Notably, much of the 10% gain in the Dow Transports was taken back this week as airline stocks issued dire projections for the future of flight. Stocks like UAL, AAL, and LUV were smacked down hard, erasing recent gains and issuing a dose of reality upon releasing 1Q earnings reports, and, more importantly, somewhat dire guidance based on increasing operational costs, like, um, jet fuel, which has more or less tripled over the past six weeks.
Outside the NASDAQ and the Trannys, stocks put in a rare week of flat-lining.
For the Week:
Dow: -216.72 (-0.44%)
NASDAQ: +368.12 (+1.50%)
S&P 500: +39.02 (+0.55%)
NYSE Composite: -263.19 (-1.13%)
Dow Transports: -1530.10 (-6.82%)
The Shiller PE ratio (CAPE) stood at 40.66 at the close of trading Friday, a level second only to the level of 44.19 reached at the peak of the dotcom spike in December 1999. Addressing the issue of valuation as compared to price at these levels is an exercise in futility. The markets, mauled and manipulated by the off-and-on nature of the Middle East morass eventually give way to the momentum of greed and FOMO. There's little doubt that the all-time high on the Shlller PE will be a target and potentially surpassed as stocks continue to be paraded as the safe investment for Americans and likewise, a shield against devaluation of international currencies.
"Up, up and away" would seem to be a fitting motto for current market conditions. With fogs of war in Ukraine and the Middle East lingering, money into stocks appears a palatable trade.
The week ahead will be chock-full of earnings reports, with particular focus on Wednesday’s after the bell announcements from four MAG7 stocks and a few notables, coinciding and possibly overshadowing the Fed’s FOMC rate policy announcement.
Monday: (before open) Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Verizon (VZ), Norwood Financial (NWFL); (after close) Rambus (RMBS), Lending Club (LC), Nucor (NUE), Celestica (CLS)
Tuesday: (before open) Corning (GLW), Ecolab ((ECL), Hilton (HLT), General Motors (GM), Spitify (SPOT), Coca-Cola (KO), UPS (UPS); (after close) Starbucks (SBUX), Teradyne (TER), Visa (V), Enphase (ENPH), Robinhood (HOOD), Modelez (MDLZ), Seagate (STX)
Wednesday: (before open) Humana (HUM), Avis (CAR), Abbvie (ABBV), SoFi (SOFI). Regeneron (REGN); (after close) Kinross (KGC), Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Qualcomm (QCOM), Ford (F), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
Thursday: (before open) Caterpillar (CAT), Valero (VLO), Wayfair (W), ConocoPhillips (COP), Lilly (LLY), Mastercard (MA), Altria (MO), Merck (MRK), Bristol Meyers Squibb (BMY), Cigna (CI); (after close) Apple (AAPL), Reddit (RDDT) Rivian (RIVN), Amgen (AMGN), Riot (RIOT), Sandisk (SNDK)
Friday: (before open) ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Moderna (MRNA), Estée Lauder (EL), Dominion Energy (D)
With huge focus on the Fed and earnings calendar, the economic slate is still going to be somewhat essential for an accurate read of market trends. Monday, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for March is released. Tuesday is highlighted by the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the Richmond Fed. Wednesday, before the opening bell, Drable Goods Orders, Housing Starts and Building Permit data are released.
Thursday offers the second estimate of first quarter GDP, jobless claims, the PCE Price Index for March (inflation data), and consumer spending. There’s a few items of note on Friday, including the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Volatility is to be expected to continue amid the ongoing mangling and miscarriage of financial markets.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/20/2026 | 3.73 | 3.71 | 3.72 | 3.74 | 3.73 | 3.79 | 3.80 |
| 03/27/2026 | 3.74 | 3.73 | 3.72 | 3.73 | 3.72 | 3.75 | 3.77 |
| 04/03/2026 | 3.71 | 3.73 | 3.73 | 3.71 | 3.71 | 3.73 | 3.72 |
| 04/10/2026 | 3.67 | 3.69 | 3.70 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 3.72 | 3.70 |
| 04/17/2026 | 3.69 | 3.70 | 3.73 | 3.70 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 3.64 |
| 04/24/2026 | 3.69 | 3.72 | 3.71 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 3.71 | 3.67 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/20/2026 | 3.88 | 3.90 | 4.01 | 4.20 | 4.39 | 4.97 | 4.96 |
| 03/27/2026 | 3.88 | 3.94 | 4.06 | 4.25 | 4.44 | 4.99 | 4.98 |
| 04/03/2026 | 3.84 | 3.88 | 3.99 | 4.17 | 4.35 | 4.91 | 4.91 |
| 04/10/2026 | 3.81 | 3.80 | 3.94 | 4.12 | 4.31 | 4.89 | 4.91 |
| 04/17/2026 | 3.71 | 3.72 | 3.84 | 4.04 | 4.26 | 4.85 | 4.88 |
| 04/24/2026 | 3.78 | 3.80 | 3.92 | 4.10 | 4.31 | 4.88 | 4.91 |
With a FOMC meeting this week expected to take all the volatility out of the treasury market, long rates had a tendency to the upside, increasing expectations for 4.5% on the 10-year note and 5.0% on the 30-year.
Interest rates have been kept artificially low, especially in reference to the resurgence of inflation in the U.S. and what's soon to come to most of Europe. Treasuries are being held at rates suggesting that the U.S. is some kind of industrial powerhouse, churning out products to the rest of the world and creating jobs at an accelerated pace, when the fact of the matter is the country is the most-heavily-indebted nation in the history of the world, its infrastructure is failing at alarmist levels, and its politicial and economic leaders have about the same level of intellectual capacity as a bag of potatoes.
Lending the United States of Aggression money at four or five percent invites disaster at the international level when true inflation is - and has been - running at better than seven to ten percent. Forget the official CPI and PPI monthly data. Those are purposely understated ot avoid the obviousness of the situation. The U.S. spends roughly an equal amount of money on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid as it does on interest and the military, creating the perfect symbiotic welfare/warfare state.
Jerome Powell will be chairing his penultimate FOMC meeting this week, overseeing another pause or neutral policy statement. He's not likely to rock the economic boat as he departs from his leadership position as that would only anger the deranged Mr. Trump, who wants to lower rates down to one percent or even lower in months ahead in order to spur the economy and usher in an unprecedented save of he House and senate in the November midterms.
On Sunday's edition of "Meet the Press", Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) cleared the way for Kevin Warsh's confirmation as the next Fed head, citing the end of a criminal investigation against Powell. The Senate Banking Committee will meet Wednesday to advance Warsh's nomination to the full Senate, where he is expected to clear.
Thus, President Trump will have "his man" at the helm, pressured to lower rates when they actually should be raised. Under the current administration, the Fed might begin a pattern of lowering rates as early as June or July, just as inflation reaches crisis levels. Oil and gas prices might be the current fear, but food and everything related to petroleum (just about everything) is set to skyrocket within the next 12-18 months.
The blundering Fed at least will be consistent in not achieving its dual mandates of maintaining full employment nor stable prices. The 113 reign of terror over the U.S. dollar is about to bloom fully.
Spreads:
2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27:
+90
3
/6: +10
2
3/13:
+115
3
/20: +
123
3/2
7: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
Oil/Gas
WTI Crude Oil finished the week in New York at $94.88, more than $10 higher than last Friday's close at $84.00. Since negotiations have fizzled again and again, much to the liking of the Trump factions, and the Strait of Hormuz remains nearly shut down by Iran and further "blockaded" by U.S. patrol ships in the Gulf of Oman and further out into the Indian Ocean, oil flows have quickly returned to minimals. Choking off fuel is an excellent method for restraining economies and hiding deeper flaws which seems to be working well for the U.S. suppression madmen in charge. Ruination of economies doesn't happen overnight. The world is still in just the beginning of what appears to be a long standoff between the U.S. and Iran, which will result in dramatic, devastating economic consequences, already being felt by lower-level nations in Africa, South America, and Southern Asia. The spread to developed nations, particularly Europe, will commence as the crises deepens.
Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.01 last week and $4.07 this week, reflecting the change in perception over Middle East politics and policies. Optimism over opening the Strait of Hormuz faded throughout the week as even the prospect of negotiations between Iran and the U.S. was dashed. The two sides remain far apart and not talking at this juncture. A long, drawn out stalemate is textbook U.S. policy, keeping oil prices - which were lower and stable before the conflict began - high and prospects for peace low. Be prepared to pay more for not just gas, oil, or lube, but everything.
Prices in key states:
California (leader): $5.94 (+0.11)
Washington: $5.44 (+0.07)
Oklahoma (lowest): $3.47 (+0.14)
Florida: $3.92 (-0.07)
Illinois: $4.31 (+0.03)
Pennsylvania: $4.15 (+0.06)
New York: $4.14 (+0.06)
Maryland: $3.99 (-0.03)
Michigan: $4.01 (+0.05)
Texas: $3.63 (0.00)
Georgia: $3.59 (+0.02)
As of Sunday, April 24, there are 18 states with average prices above $4.00, with two above $5 (California, Washington), and 30 below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.64, -0.04) and Alaska ($4.75, +0.10). The Midwest and Southeast have equalized over the past two weeks as the lowest-priced regions, with prices averaging roughly the same in states like South Dakota, Iowa and Kansas as opposed to Tennessee, Georgia and Mississippi.
Bitcoin
This week: $77,941.15
Last week: $75,748.31
2 weeks ago: $70,755.74
6 months ago: $114,960.80
One year ago: $94,717.11
Five years ago: $58,851.15
For better or for worse, bitcoin and the entire crypto universe is in danger of becoming irrelevant.
After 17 years of trying to convince retail investors that bitcoin and crypto were the future of money, adoption rates for all forms of crypto-currencies have failed to materialize and the recent pullback in bitcoin especially has caused many long-time "hodlers" and true believers to jump ship and seek alternatives to the messianic message of imaginary "coins."
While the White House, crooks running various scams in meme-coins, and partially, the U.S. treasury itself engage in pumping stablecoins as a medium of exchange, that's all they'll ever amount to, as stablecoins require pegs to some other commodity or currency, i.e., gold, dollars. The entirety of the crypto revolution boils down to nothing more than collecting fees by the tollgate keepers and the miners or stakers. The entire industry is flawed due to interdependence on already-established forms of money and currency and it will be nearly impossible for it to escape from that bondage.
That's not to say that the purveyors of these various and sundry scams will cease trying to entice gullible investors and rubes into their vicious games of three-card monte or find the bean. Suckers abound.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 62.27; last week: 59.86
Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 3/27: $4,521.30
Gold price 4/3: $4,702.70
Gold price 4/10: $4,771.00
Gold price 4/17: $4,849.40
Gold price 4/24: $4,725.40
Silver price 3/27: $69.77
Silver price 4/3: $73.17
Silver price 4/10: $76.03
Silver price 4/17: $81.58
Silver price 4/24: $76.19
SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 3/27: $4,495.05
Gold 4/3: $4,677.28
Gold 4/10: $4,751.68
Gold 4/17: $4,833.56
Gold 4/24: $4,709.27
Silver 3/27: $69.77
Silver 4/3: $73.02
Silver 4/10: $75.95
Silver: 4/17: $80.75
Silver 4/24: $75.63
The close correlation between stocks and precious metals pver the past few months appears to be somewhat counter-intuitive. However, when assessing value from an unbiased perspective, PMs and stocks moving somewhat in tandem makes more sense. Since everybody uses fiat currency for investments, there's little difference between buying blue chip stocks or gold as a means of converting increasingly-worthless paper into tangible investments with potential for gains.
Dow stocks carry dividends along with possible appreciation. Gold, considering its recent acceptance as part of a balanced portfolio, also carries great potential for positive returns. For the more speculative investor, silver offers explosive gains, much like some of the high fliers on the NASDAQ and/or S&P 500.
As the table below demonstrates, when stocks are in the limelight, so too are precious metals, as Wall Street has become more amenable to diversification into different asset classes and many managers have allocated as much as 10-20% of client portfolios into gold and silver, and, to a lesser extent, palladium and platinum.
Value propositions in stocks and metals are readily obtainable, even if value is determined against the decline of fiat currency. Cash, in the form of dollars, yen, pounds, or euros, are merely transfer mechanisms of wealth. By themselves, currencies are only measurement instruments. In the end, investors crave return, gains, growth, income, or anything better than depreciation in an inflationary environment. Thus, when stocks gain, so too do the metals, given the new allocation models. Drawdowns, in all cases, represent little more than profit-taking rather than re-positioning.
In the past, investors leaned either toward PMs or stocks. Under the new paradigm, portfolios are geared more toward a ratio allocation, with precious metals increasingly growing as part of the new balance.
1-Month returns
Gold +7.53%
Dow +7.12%
Silver +13.26%
S&P 500 +10.62%
Nasdaq Composite +16.02%
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 oz silver coin: | 80.00 | 92.99 | 86.08 | 86.00 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 85.00 | 95.77 | 89.76 | 89.90 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 4826.65 | 5069.80 | 4959.52 | 4945.63 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 4549.00 | 5064.05 | 4858.55 | 4910.54 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) slipped lower this week, to $87.94, a decline of $5.06 from the April 19 price of $93.00 per troy ounce.
WEEKEND WRAP
As the Trump administration continues to create narratives and situations that are untenable longer term, expect more chaotic markets as Spring turns to Summer. With high gas prices seemingly a goal of the government and big oil, inflation has returned with a vengeance and is unlikely to relent until some kind of reasonable agreement is reached in the Middle East.
Until such a time, gas prices are almost certain to reach $4.00 or higher in almost the entire country. Already, average gas prices are above $4 in 18 states. There's no incentive for the U.S. to back off from its "blockade" in the Indian Ocean. The only thing the blockade has achieved thus far is higher prices for crude oil.
Mission Accomplished.
At the Close, Friday, April 24, 2026:
Dow: 49,230.71, -79.61 (-0.16%)
NASDAQ: 24,836.60, +398.09 (+1.63%)
S&P 500: 7,165.08, +56.68 (+0.80%)
NYSE Composite: 22,934.55, -18.19 (-0.08%)
For the Week:
Dow: -216.72 (-0.44%)
NASDAQ: +368.12 (+1.50%)
S&P 500: +39.02 (+0.55%)
NYSE Composite: -263.19 (-1.13%)
Dow Transports: -1530.10 (-6.82%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
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