July PPI Flat, Below Expectations; Stocks, Gold, Silver in Limbo with Rates on Hold; Oil Flows Continue to Satisfy Demand for Now

Wednesday's July CPI report cooled hate hike expectations, and Thursday morning's PPI reading for July put a cherry on top as the release showed inflation at the producer level lower than expected.

As reported:

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices edged down 0.1 percent in June and rose 0.5 percent in May. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 4.7 percent for the 12 months ended in July.

In July, a 0.2-percent increase in the index for final demand services and a 2.2-percent advance in prices for final demand construction offset a 0.7-percent decrease in the index for final demand goods.

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.4 percent in July after inching up 0.1 percent in June. For the 12 months ended in July, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 4.7 percent.

While the annual figure of 4.7% is still high, it is down from the peak in March of 5.9%, suggesting that inflation is still rising, but the pace is slowing. That may not be exactly what consumers want to hear, but it is likely to bring joy to more than a few Wall Street trading desks.

The CME's FedWatch tool shows a 32% chance of a hike - to 3.75-4.00% - at the September FOMC meeting (34 days from now) and a 68% chance that the Fed will stand pat at 3.50-3.75%. It's a fool's game to bet against those odds given the current circumstances. There is practically no reason for the Fed to change policy in September, especially if August non-farm payrolls come in at a negative or below expectations. Nobody, except for maybe the three board members who voted for a rate hike in July, wants to take the punch bowl away in the middle of the expansion party. Price inflation will take care of itself as demand destruction and substitution meets ample supply.

While America's purchasing power gradually erodes, it affects only the "little people", resulting, in terms of overall monetary policy, grins and chuckles, because, the powers that be truly don't care much about the 90% of the population that pays taxes and buys groceries. The Fed looks at the bigger picture. With GDP running at 1.5% in the second quarter and likely to edge even lower for Q3 2026, elevated inflation is the least of their worries.

On the brighter side, the AI capex expansion is real and will be peaking later this year or at some time in the first half of 2027. It's at that point that the Fed will have to move, and the most likely direction would be lower rates, not higher.

Wall Street's reaction to the PPI reading was rather muted. It appears as if the table is set for August, with congress out of town and earnings season winding down. Further gains in stocks are likely to be hard to come by, if only because the market is sailing through economic doldrums.

Stocks are already at or close to record highs and are probably going a bit higher before the next pullback, which could come from any direction. Meanwhile, the midterms are shaping up well for Republicans if the economy holds and inflation doesn't bite as hard as some expected. There does not appear to be any near-term resolution to the Iranian crisis, but oil flows continue to hold. WTI crude is down two percent this morning, at $81/barrel. If the two sides in the Middle East refrain from shooting at each other over the next few weeks and months, prices should stabilize in the 70s.

Treasury yields have moderated, keeping the price of gold and silver in recent ranges.

At the Close, Wednesday, August 12, 2026:
Dow: 53,770.27, -21.58 (-0.04%)
NASDAQ: 26,588.49, +143.04 (+0.54%)
S&P 500: 7,748.50, +20.30 (+0.26%)
NYSE Composite: 24,758.62, +73.05 (+0.30%)

July CPI Comes in Tame, up 0.1% monthly, +3.4% Annually; Gold, Silver Get a Bump Higher as Inflation/Employment Debate Emerges

Pretty much in line with expectations, the BLS reported July CPI as follows:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in July after falling 0.4 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.1 percent in July, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the monthly all items increase. The index for food also increased 0.1 percent over the month, as the index for food away from home increased 0.3 percent. In contrast, the energy index declined 1.5 percent in July.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent after being unchanged in June. Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, airline fares, communication, education, and recreation. Conversely, the index for motor vehicle insurance was among the major indexes that decreased in July.

The all items index rose 3.4 percent for the 12 months ending July after rising 3.5 percent for the 12 months ending June. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.5 percent over the year, following a 2.6-percent increase over the 12 months ending June. The energy index increased 14.7 percent for the 12 months ending July. The food index increased 3.0 percent over the last year.

As Money Daily detailed in Tuesday's post, the soft inflation figures had the most profound effect on precious metals. Both silver and gold experienced healthy gains upon the release.

As for as stock futures were concerned, the data didn't move the needle much on any of the majors, which were already close to session highs just prior to the release.

Approaching the opening bell, gold was up nearly $62 to $4,428.70, with silver up nearly two dollars, at $66.40.

Dow futures were up 148 points. NASDAQ futures were ahead by 288 and S&P futures gained 35 points.

Today's CPI print leaves open the debate over whether the Fed will raise or lower interest rates. Considering the weakness lately in employment, the FOMC may lean toward a cut at the September meeting, though there will be a load of data to digest before then. Whether or not precious metals can sustain their recent advances has much to do with the inflation/employment argument. Lower rates favor PMs. Higher rates favor treasuries as the safety bet of choice.

Crude oil remains very much in play, as Iranian hard-liners push for U.S. concessions as prerequisites for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude futures are maintaining around $83/barrel. A breakthrough in the Middle East would send oil much lower, be beneficial to the global economy, and probably send all assets higher.

The games continue...

At the Close, Tuesday, August 11, 2026:
Dow: 53,791.85, -184.13 (-0.34%)
NASDAQ: 26,445.45, -159.91 (-0.60%)
S&P 500: 7,728.20, -24.91 (-0.32%)
NYSE Composite: 24,685.57, +17.69 (+0.07%)

Investors Largely on Hold in Advance of July CPI; Mideast Uncertainty Sends Oil Higher as Gold and Silver Continue Rallies

Other than commodities, markets took a breather Monday in advance of Wednesday's July CPI reading, as investors weigh the odds future actions of the Federal Reserve concerning inflation and what looks to be a stagnant employment market.

While Friday's reading of -23,000 jobs from the monthly BLS Non-farm payroll data sent some chills through the economy, Wall Street took the news as a sign that the Fed would be unable to raise interest rtes at their next FOMC meeting in September. The other side of the coin is that inflation has re-emerged as a threat to the economy, with higher-than-expected CPI readings the past three months.

Though many analysts - including some voting members of the FOMC - attribute the recent rise in inflation to disruptions in supply chains and generally unstable conditions stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, others - including three FOMC board members who voted for a rate hike at the July meeting - believe inflation to be more systemic and a real threat to stability in the United States and elsewhere.

That is where the crux of the arguments lay, and both sides have good points. There's more beneath the surface, however.

When July CPI is released prior to the market open on Wednesday, it may trigger a precious metals event if analysts are correct about the number indicating a cooling of inflation pressure. Silver will go off like a hypersonic missile if the monthly headline number is +0.2 or lower and the annual rate comes in at 3.4% or less, which is highly probable. People will also be watching the core number, expected to come in at 2.5%. Not only would softer inflation figures be a solid for the general economy (Wall Street may see it differently), but potentially lower interest rates (read: money printing) is like putting gold and silver on steroids.

Because precious metals don't return any dividends, they are bought and sold against treasury interest rates. When rates are high, there isn't an urge to buy PMs, but when rates are low and money is easy, they become much more attractive as a hedge against declining purchasing power. The prefect storm which may emerge on Wednesday - and possibly further on Thursday with the PPI release - is a softer read on inflation which would not only send interest rates down, but also appeal to the bullish Wall Street cohort which sees flagging inflation as a road map for the Fed to ease, sending stocks higher. In such a scenario, everybody wins, but the top prize may be taken by gold bugs and silver stackers.

In case anybody needs convincing, the recent rise in precious metals extended into Monday, led by silver, which popped from the mid-63s to above $66 before settling into a range around $64.25-65.50. Gold was less extravagant, though the move from $4,320 to $4,400 during the U.S. session was noticeable.

Metals traders may have been looking forward to Wednesday's inflation reading, or, they may have just been jumping on the moving bandwagon. PMs have been on the move since Monday of last week and the momentum does not appear to be waning in the least. Wednesday might produce a "moon shot" if the CPI comes in below expectations.

Everything other than small caps and crude oil lagged on Monday, with WTI futures rising from $76 to $82 on the day, courtesy of more speculation over the prospects for opening the Strait of Hormuz, something that's become something of a tennis ball affair between neocons and peace negotiators. The narrative swings in different directions on a regular basis and with it the price of oil. Being a global commodity, there are certainly more players than Iran and the U.S.. Everybody seems to want to have a say in how the Middle East and the shipping of oil and other commodities are handled, and by whom.

When the price of oil rises, so too the threat of inflation, though this drama, which started off as "a few days or maybe weeks" has morphed into a five-month long struggle against rational solutions. Every time there appears to be a breakthrough in negotiations, one side or the other (admittedly, it's usually the United States) turns heel and starts lobbing missiles and other munitions around the region. There is no sense to this kind of behavior, but that's what happens when an empire suffers from poor planning and decision-making by people who are genuinely unstable. On top of that, the reality is that the United States has been handed a severe beating by a foe - Iran - that is fighting for its very survival and refuses to back down.

Throwing a political bent into the three-ring circus, the U.S. midterms are less than three months away and both parties need to put their best image forward, but especially the ruling party, the Republicans. If they wish to stave off big losses in the House and Senate, they sorely need to appear to have a positive direction, and high inflation and a seemingly endless conflict in a critical region doesn't seem to cut it. In the best scenario, the U.S. declares victory and brings troops home, inflation slows and the politicians get down to the usual nasty ads, finger-pointing, and general silliness of the elections.

We'll get to see how this all works out in the weeks and months ahead, but Tuesday appears to be a rerun of Monday's indecisive trading.

Approaching the open, stock futures are higher, though only modestly. Gold and silver continue to hold gains.

At the Close, Monday, August 8, 2026:
Dow: 53,975.98, -60.95 (-0.11%)
NASDAQ: 26,605.36, -85.26 (-0.32%)
S&P 500: 7,753.11, -4.53 (-0.06%)
NYSE Composite: 24,667.88, +72.64 (+0.30%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Gold, Silver Break Out; Stocks Rip Higher on Solid Earnings and Mideast Peace Possibilities; Congress Takes Five-Week Vacation (hooray!)

Potential peace in the Middle East, lower oil prices, a rally in stocks, gold, and silver were the main stories this week. Friday’s revelation by the BLS of -23,000 jobs in July ended the week on a mixed note.

Stocks

It was another banner week for stocks as earnings excitement met with potential peace in the Middle East.

Desite not making fresh all-time highs as did the Dow ans S&P, the NASDAQ powered ahead by 1316.77 points (+5.19%) in one of its best weekly pickup of the past two years. Money managers once again saw value in the AI trade, buying up recently beaten-down shares of companies like Meta Platforms (META, +6.36%), Taiwan Semi (TSM, +3.91), Advance Micro (ADM, +1.51%), and old standby, Nvidia (NVDA) which sprang forward 11.56% on the week.

In keeping with recent trends, speculation was rampant with gains in micro-cap and small-cap biotech, tech, and specialty sectors, with some energy and consumer services also in the mix.

Friday's surprise -23,000 jobs in the BLS Non-farm Payroll report shook up the financiers and assorted free money enthusiasts, believing that the Fed would be forced to lower interest rates rather than raise them in the face of dwindling employment opportunities. They may be on to something, though there remains the sticky inflation problem that prompted three of the 12 FOMC board members to vote in favor of a rate hike at the most recent meeting (July 28-29).

Just the thought of a weakening economy was good enough to send the NASDAQ more than one percent higher on Friday while the other indices were less enthusiastic, preferring to take profits or hold positions.

As is their privilege, Berkshire-Hathaway reported on Saturday, showing a 16% rise in earnings from a year ago and also reported that the company had become a net buyer of stocks, ending a period of 14 consecutive quarters as a net seller of equities. The company also began gradually spending the nearly $400 billion cash horde, putting $20 billion to work on stock re-purchases and various equity stakes. The company's top five holdings are American Express, Apple, Bank of America, Coca-Cola and Alphabet.

Earnings season is winding down, but there are still plenty of relevant companies yet to report. Here's a selection for the coming week:

Monday: (before open) Barrick (B), Ceva (CEVA); (after close) hims|hers (HIMS), GoPro (GPRO), Plug Power (PLUG)

Tuesday: (before open) Cardinal Health (CAH), Rackspace (RXT), Tencent Music (TME), Lithium Argentina (LAR); (after close) Supermicro Semi (SMCI), Cava (CAVA), CoreWeave (CRWV)

Wednesday: (before open) Brinker International (EAT), Amcor (AMCR); (after close) Cisco (CSCO), Enovix (ENVX), Cerebras (CBRS), Renovo (RNXT)

Thursday: (before open) JD.com (JD), MedWound (MDWD), Intuitive Machines (LUNR); (after close) Applied Materials (AMAT), PetMeds (PETS)

Friday: (before open) LanzaTech (LNZA), Outlook Therapeutics (OTLK), Suncrete (RMIX)

As congress takes its usual five-week holiday, data releases will be sparse in the week ahead with the CPI and PPI readings for July grabbing the most attention. Tuesday has the NFIB Business Optimism Index, ADP weekly employment change and Existing Home Sales.

Wednesday starts off with the CPI reading, with most of the speculation on the inflation reading to be unchanged or even slightly lower due to gas prices beginning to come down and food prices being steady. July PPI is reported Thursday along with initial and continuing Unemployment Claims, with Friday's reading of July Retail Sales capping off the week.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
07/02/2026	3.70	3.73	3.81	3.82	3.91	3.98	3.96
07/10/2026	3.71	3.74	3.81	3.85	3.94	3.99	4.06
07/17/2026	3.73	3.75	3.80	3.85	3.91	3.96	4.01
07/24/2026	3.80	3.88	3.95	3.96	4.04	4.08	4.14
07/31/2026	3.78	3.80	3.85	3.83	3.92	3.98	4.08
08/07/2026	3.79	3.79	3.83	3.87	3.89	3.96	4.01

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
07/02/2026	4.14	4.16	4.23	4.35	4.49	4.99	4.98
07/10/2026	4.21	4.22	4.30	4.42	4.56	5.08	5.06
07/17/2026	4.18	4.21	4.28	4.40	4.55	5.07	5.06
07/24/2026	4.33	4.36	4.43	4.55	4.69	5.18	5.16
07/31/2026	4.28	4.34	4.45	4.59	4.75	5.28	5.27
08/07/2026	4.19	4.25	4.35	4.49	4.65	5.20	5.19

Yields on notes and bonds fell over the course of the week, with 10-year notes yielding 4.65%, down from 4.75% a week earlier. The 30-year bond dropped eight basis points, to 5.19%, though all longer-dated maturities are at elevated levels. The upshot from higher rates is the increased cost of borrowing by the federal government. With annual interest payments well over $1 trillion a year, everybody from debt slaves to Secretary Bessent would benefit from lower rates, particularly Republicans, needing a sound economy to avoid being cast to the wind in November.

The Senate did its part to secure victory for all incumbents by overwhelmingly passing a stop-gap funding bill that would keep the government solvent through early December. Neither side wants to go through another round of potentially shutting down the government. The public is sick of the theatrics and neither Democrats nor Republicans can claim that such a strategy has worked in any manner. For the most part, the general public tend to blame both sides and all politicians for creatng their own mess and then acting like they're cleaning it up.

Predictably, spreads narrowed, though insignificantly.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37
7/24: +36
7/31: +47
8/7: +36

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133
7/24: +136
7/31: +149
8/7: +140

Oil/Gas

August WTI crude futures closed out the week at $77.08, down sharply from last week's closeout at $86.80 on the NY Mercantile Exchange. An agreement between Oman and Iran to direct traffic safely through the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to the muted response by the White House, offered an indication that the five-month-long period of hostility in the region may be coming to an end. While there are still multiple abrasions in the region, like the Houthis attacking Saudi infrastructure, that could derail any "deal" that emerges, the U.S. may have finally come to its senses over fighting wars it cannot win, which would effectively be a peace bomus for everybody.

Politics, being so craven and misused, may take a back seat as congress heads out of session for five weeks. That's also welcome relief and bodes well not only for U.S. interests but those of the rest of the world. It's apparent that the entire world is better off when politicians aren't involved and even a five-week hiatus from the posturing and poisoning is a positive development.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.07 last week and $3.96 this week, the first notable drop in the price of petrol in weeks. The possibility of peace in the Middle East eases fears of higher gas prices which are squeezing already thin household and small business budgets. If the Strait of Hormuz becomes no longer a flashpoint, the price of oil should fall into the $60-65 range soon, taking gas prices down to more reasonable levels, around $2.75-3.00, and possibly lower, especially in the Southeast and Midwest.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.58 (-0.08)
Washington: $5.11 (-0.02)
Indiana (lowest): $3.49 (-0.13)
Oklahoma (lowest): $3.49 (-0.15)
Mississippi: $3.56 (-0.07)
Florida: $3.85 (+0.05)
Illinois: $4.22 (-0.12)
Pennsylvania: $4.10 (-0.10)
New York: $4.14 (-0.05)
Maryland: $4.00 (-0.13)
Michigan: $4.12 (-0.24)
Texas: $3.51 (-0.05)
Georgia: $3.71 (-0.13)

On Sunday, April 9th, there are nineteen (19) states with average prices at or above $4.00, with twenty-nine (29) below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.43) and Alaska ($4.76), with two above $5 (California and Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past 10 weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging below $4.00 ($3.49-3.71) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region a close second, prices ranging from $3.66 to $3.85. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest.

Bitcoin

This week: $65,185.72
Last week: $63,049.68
2 weeks ago: $64,633.18
6 months ago: $69,832.38
One year ago: $118,239.10
Five years ago: $47,103.48

The CLARITY act remains stalled in the Senate, as the elite in government take a five week vacation.

Non-passage of the CLARITY act before the recess is widely acknowledged as meaning it will wait until the next congress convenes in 2027. Not that it matters, however, since crypto is all fantasy-currency, worse even than Federal Reserve Notes.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 68.29; last week: 70.23

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 7/10: $4,128.90
Gold price 7/17: $4,023.00
Gold price 7/24: $4,055.70
Gold price 7/31: $4,098.60
Gold price 8/7: $4,401.30

Silver price 7/10: $60.30
Silver price 7/17: $56.22
Silver price 7/24: $58.49
Silver price 7/31: $57.78
Silver price 8/7: $63.80

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 7/10: $4,119.70
Gold 7/17: $4,016.89
Gold 7/24: $4,052.00
Gold 7/31: $4,042.00
Gold 8/7: $4,340.72

Silver 7/10: $59.85
Silver 7/17: $55.91
Silver 7/24: $58.19
Silver: 7/31: $57.55
Silver 8/7: $63.56

At long last, precious metals made a breakout move in the most recent trading. Still reliant on London gold and silver fixes and spot pricing, the gains this week look to be marking an important shift in how precious metals are valued, pitting London, Chicago, and New York's long-standing derivative mechanisms against Shanghai's momentum toward pricing gold and silver based physical trades.

These are divergent trends which threaten not only the rigged exchanges at the LBMA and COMEX, but have begun to hedge against the U.S. dollar itself, especially in terms of gold. As gold has emerged as the one, indisputable central bank trusted asset, the desire to hold U.S. treasuries continues to wane. Most Asian countries prefer gold over U.S. paper promises, especially, Russia, China, and India, where, not coincidentally, most of the gold in the world is either mined or stored.

Asia has been flexing the gold muscle for roughly the last 20 years, and, with China setting up vaulting facilities in Singapore, Hong, Kong, Dubai, and elsewhere, the trend toward physical assets over fiat paper is now visible and growing at an accelerated pace.

There's little doubt that the U.S. and London interests will do all they can to thwart the goals of BRICS and related interests, so it's likely to be a bumpy ride over the next 5-10 years in terms of currencies and valuations, though it's obvious now to all that the new money will end up being the same as the old money: namely, gold.

Silver will have its place in both the industrial and monetary spheres. Judging by the movement of the gold:silver ratio this week, silver, with its dual function, may very well lead the way forward. After all, gold's decline was from $5,500 to roughly $4,000, while silver was effectively cut in half, from $120 per ounce to as low as $57. As gold heads back toward all-time highs, silver may "jump the shark" by advancing faster and with more volatility. While central banks aren't holding much of it due to its weight and storage requirements as compared to gold, silver remains a means by which individuals and smaller investors can latch onto the precious metals bandwagon and protect some of their wealth.

Attributed to Norm Franz, a former monetary economist, investment company president, ordained minister, and Bible teacher, the following oft-repeated idiom appears in his 2001 book Money & Wealth in the New Millennium:

Gold is the money of kings;
silver is the money of gentlemen;
barter is the money of peasants;
but debt is the money of slaves.

Couldn't agree more.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	69.79	76.00	73.04	73.09
1 oz silver bar:	69.00	84.65	75.08	73.40
1 oz gold coin:	4425.00	4711.39	4588.38	4588.98
1 oz gold bar:	4497.70	4669.28	4562.33	4545.71

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) took a quantum leap forward, closing the week at $73.65, an upside move of $7.55 per troy ounce from the August 2nd price of $66.10.

WEEKEND WRAP

Could the five-month Middle East escapade by the U.S. military possibly be coming to an end? Latest developments seem to point in that direction, though this same story has been trotted out too many times before for anybody to take the White House and the media seriously. Generally speaking, the U.S. backing off in the region would be a very positive development and one that is long overdue.

If the U.S. decides to "declare victory and go home" it might mark a turning point in global geo-politics, one in which the United States prefers to negotiate rather than instigate. It's a hopeful dream, but, as long as there is money to be made from killing other people, it's not likely to happen soon enough. The politicians involved are currently more engaged by upcoming elections, with the midterms less than three months away.

Maybe that's what needs to be done. Have elections every couple of months or even weeks so the politicians won't have time to scheme up any further disasters. Probably not a plan, but one can dream.

Probably the most positive development of the week was a return ot some sanity in precious metals markets. With the massive loss of purchasing power of the U.S. dollar, to say nothing of the yen, euro, pound and other fiat currencies, a return to gold as the ultimate collateral and store of wealth may be a painful adjustment for many, but a long term boon for society.

At the Close, Friday, August 7, 2026:
Dow: 54,036.93, +151.83 (+0.28%)
NASDAQ: 26,690.62, +342.26 (+1.30%)
S&P 500: 7,757.64, +47.68 (+0.62%)
NYSE Composite: 24,595.24, +111.18 (+0.45%)

For the Week:
Dow: +1551.90 (+2.96%)
NASDAQ: +1316.77 (+5.19%)
S&P 500: +267.92 (+3.58)
NYSE Composite: +487.69 (+2.02%)
Dow Transports: +466.79 (+2.22%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Gold, Silver Soar Overnight; BLS Reports July Job Losses of 23,000; Wall Street Thrilled with Weakening Economy

Taking a breather in advance of Friday's July Non-farm Payroll data, stocks turned modestly to the downside, the Dow being the most affected, having made outsized moves higher lately.

Overnight, stock futures made small gains, but the bigger story was n precious metals, with silver soaring past $64.50 and gold topping out above $4,300. Both metals appear to have put in near term bottoms and recent gains can be pinpointed to the end of July, when China severely restricted gold and silver futures, setting in place trading tied to physical metal, in direct opposition to the paper trades of the COMEX and LBMA.

China's bold strategy may turn out to be a tectonic shift in precius metals trading, shifting the focus from West to East, thwarting the tactics that have suppressed the prices of gold and silver for decades. The transition - basing price on physical delivery rather than false standards and promises settled in fiat paper - is likely to take months and years to fully impact the global market, but all indications are that China, as the world's largest holder of gold, wants money to be back by something more than full faith and credit of broken, bankrupt Western economies.

As the BLS reported Friday morning that the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the U.S. lost jobs in July, down 23,000. The drop in U.S. employment was the seventh monthly decline in the last 18 reports. Job losses were reported by the BLS in January, June, August, October, and December of 2025, and in February, and now, July, 2026.

Worsening the situation, the BLS also reported:

The change in total non-farm payroll employment for May was revised down by 66,000, from +129,000 to +63,000, and the change for June was revised down by 37,000, from +57,000 to +20,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 103,000 lower than previously reported.

These downside revisions have become routine, and sometimes are market-moving. Reaction in the futures markets to what should be considered bad news, had the usual Wall Street pretzel logic, as a decline in employment might urge the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, as cheap money is always and everywhere top of mind for Wall Street financiers. Stock futures spiked higher, along with gold and silver futures.

Seemingly content with a crippled job market, Wall Street faces a tangled dilemma. Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh, is unlikely to reveal any indications of the FOMC's future intent, all the while the new Fed head leaning toward a slow and measured response, preferring the market making adjustments rather than the Fed pulling on the market's nose ring via hints, suppositions, and directional interest rate moves. The next FOMC meeting isn't for a month (September 15-16). Also, at the July meeting, three board members voted for a rate hike, so turning the board in favor of a cut would be a titanic effort.

Approaching 9:00 am ET, stock futures held their gains, with Dow futures up 159 points, NASDAQ futures ahead by 353, and S&P futures up 40 points.

Given that the July jobs report came in below the lowest estimate, it may be regarded as something of a shock, but the real trend is shown over the past 18 months, as U.S. job growth has stagnated. On the economy as a whole, Friday's July payrolls fall in line with the first reading of second quarter GDP, which was up a tiny 1.5%.

How Wall Street balances out a tiring econony with a runaway, overvalued stock market should begin to unfold today.

At the Close, Thursday, august 6, 2026:
Dow: 53,885.10, -464.02 (-0.85%)
NASDAQ: 26,348.35, -15.09 (-0.06%)
S&P 500: 7,709.96, -13.59 (-0.18%)
NYSE Composite: 24,484.06, -29.75 (-0.12%)