WEEKEND WRAP: As Stock and Bond Paper Promises Diminish in Value, Hard Assets Like Gold, Silver, Commodities, and Small Business Investments Will Flourish

Tough week for the tech sector.

The NASDAQ dropped 544.42 points (-2.13%) during the week, sending the index to a 12-week low, down 7.82% from the all-time high on June 2nd (27,093.90).

Losing 7.82% in less thna two months is significant because most of it was centered in the AI trade of the Mag7 and semiconductors. The drop signifies that there is more than a little doubt about the levels of capital expenditures (capex) by the so-called "hyperscalers" to bring AI to its ultimate function as a reliable tool in banking, accounting, law, manufacturing, robotics, space exploration, you name it.

The truth is that AI is already very good at many tasks, but the kicker is that human input is still necessary. AI has not become self-aware or fully conscious as in the "Terminator" films in which intelligent Skynet robots set about to destroy humanity. It is not likely that AI will ever become fully autonomous. It may be able to instruct a robotic lawn mower to cut the grass on a regular schedule and avoid mowing when it's raining, but AI is probably never going to destroy the human race, as doomsayers insist.

AI is another tool in the tech arsenal. It's as useful as the handlers want it to be, because it is, after all, programmable. What the market is telling everybody with ears to hear and eyes to see is that the computing power necessary to fuel AI as a global asset is already beyond what most analysts see as a prudent investment. It will take years, perhaps decades, for the AI investments to pay off, if ever. Since the Mag7 and counterparts have so much money on hand and the ability to raise more through debt or equity offerings, the capex spending is unrestrained and will continue, no matter to what degree these malinvestments are pursued.

That's what the market said the week of July 20-24, the bulk of declines sequestered on the NASDAQ.

Outside of that, the other major indices didn't take any distressing drops. The Dow and S&P barely budged, but, importantly, they remain below recent highs and the usual catalyst of companies reporting solid earnings hasn't made any difference, largely because there are other, greater issues than profits and forecasts.

With the war against Iran continuing to wreak havoc on the global oil price and U.S. government debt approaching $40 trillion, earnings of even the best companies have been met with selling on second quarter announcements. Institutional money is leaving and investors are hoarding cash, awaiting the eventual downturn in markets that, like day turns to night, is only a matter of time. All-time highs registered just weeks ago are beginning to look like long-term tops. The U.S. system of financial repression and narrative-building has run its course. There's a very good likelihood that the entire second half of 2026 could be witness to one of the most destructive capital outflows of all time, rivaling the Great Depression, the dotcom bust, and the GFC. There simply isn't any more room for inflation to grow, consumers are just scraping by, and, while big companies may be producing strong earnings reports, balance sheets are beginning to feel some stress.

When everybody wants to cash out at once, that's when the banks are revealed to have engaged in enough fraud and counterfeiting that their doors need to be closed. The government, desperate to institute stablecoins as holders of treasury debt, are a band-aid for a deep gash. They won't work long-term.

So, here we are. How much faith do the American people and investing public have in government institutions? We're all about to find out, because this week's tech wreck wasn't a one-off. It was a warning shot across the bow of American finance.

Stocks

Stocks, for the better part of the week and especially the last three days, were not going anywhere but down. Friday provided some relief, but hardly enough to convince anybody that the worst was over. The NASDAQ dropped again on Friday and is already into a corrective phase. The nonsense that is current thinking says a correction is a 10% loss. Traditionalists, otherwise known as old people with critical thinking tools, know corrections can come in various flavors between five and 15%. The NASDAQ is already there, and, as tech makes up so much of the U.S. economy, it is likely to drag down the rest of the market, as it did in 2000.

There's an FOMC meeting this week (Tuesday and Wednesday), which is going to be so inconsequential that it almost can be completely overlooked. The Fed, under new chairman Warsh, is not going to surprise anybody, nor are they about to let anybody know what their members are thinking, leaving the front-running analysts without a convenient plaything. Tough noodles.

More big (and small) names will be reporting second quarter results this week, one of the busiest of the season:

Monday: (before open) Baker Hughes (BKR), AstraZeneca (AZN); (after close) Celestics (CLS), Nucor (NUE), Rambus (RMBS), Whirlpool (WHR), Applied Digital (APLD)

Tuesday: (before open) Boeing (BA), PayPal (PYPL), UPS (UPS), HF Sinclair (DINO), JetBlue (JBLU), Corning (GLW), Royal Caribbean (RCL); (after close) Visa (V), Teradyne (TER), Avis Budget Group (CAR), Ford (F), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Seagate (STX)

Wednesday: (before open) Boston Scientific (BSX), Generac (GNRC), Cognizant (CTSH), ADP (ADP), Humana (HUM), SoFi (SOFI); (after close) Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Lam Research (LRCX), O'Reilly Auto Parts (ORLY), Qualcomm (QCOM), Chipolte Mexican Grill (CMG), Robinhood (HOOD)

Thursday: (before open) Mastercard (MA), Altria (MO), Cigna (CI), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), Valero (VLO); (after close) Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Reddit (RDDT), Rivian (RIVN), Roblox (RBLX)

Friday: (before open) ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Moderna (MRNA), AutoNation (AN), Abbvie (ABBV), Dominion Energy (D), Colgate Palmolive (CL)

Data releases will be relevant. Monday brings Durable Goods Orders and the Dallas Fed. Tuesday: Retail and Wholesale Inventories, Case Shiller Home Price Index for June. Wednesday will be dominated by talk and analysis of the FOMC rate policy announcement. Thursday: Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims and the PCE Price Index (which may or may not still be the Fed's favorite inflation indicator) and the initial second quarter GDP estimate, which should be of utmost importance. Friday brings the University of Michigan consumer sentiment polling.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
06/18/2026	3.69	3.69	3.74	3.83	3.85	3.92	4.00
06/26/2026	3.70	3.70	3.75	3.83	3.89	3.94	3.94
07/02/2026	3.70	3.73	3.81	3.82	3.91	3.98	3.96
07/10/2026	3.71	3.74	3.81	3.85	3.94	3.99	4.06
07/17/2026	3.73	3.75	3.80	3.85	3.91	3.96	4.01
07/24/2026	3.80	3.88	3.95	3.96	4.04	4.08	4.14

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
06/18/2026	4.19	4.19	4.23	4.34	4.46	4.91	4.90
06/26/2026	4.07	4.09	4.12	4.23	4.38	4.87	4.87
07/02/2026	4.14	4.16	4.23	4.35	4.49	4.99	4.98
07/10/2026	4.21	4.22	4.30	4.42	4.56	5.08	5.06
07/17/2026	4.18	4.21	4.28	4.40	4.55	5.07	5.06
07/24/2026	4.33	4.36	4.43	4.55	4.69	5.18	5.16

Treasury yields remained elevated, even to the point of blowing out. 30-year bond yields rose 10 basis points, with the 10-year note yield up 14. The 2-year continues to surge higher, suggesting trouble in consumer lending (autos, credit cards) within months, if not weeks. The 15 basis point move on the two-year was the largest move of the week, along with the 5-year.

TheFed has an FOMC meeting this week, though expectations for any kind of explosive rhetoric or announcement are quite low. The Warsh Fed is quickly becoming one of the most tight-lipped of the past four decades, which includes the Greenspan era, which was typified not by quietude, but obfuscation and mumbo-jumbo mumbling from the Fed head. This is quite different, harkening back to an age in which the Fed was enshrouded in secrecy and mystique.

Current indications are that despite a decline in speculative assets (stocks), the treasury market is no longer being viewed as a safe haven. Rather, it is viewed with great suspicion worldwide, begging the question of "return of capital" as opposed to "return on capital." In other words, distrust of U.S. institutions and financial shenanigans is under severe scrutiny. Kevin Warsh and his friends at the remodeled Eccles building have their hands full keeping the faith of an increasingly suspicious investor class.

Spreads continue to blow out, with the full spectrum at its second-highest level of the year.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37
7/24: +36

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133
7/24: +136

Oil/Gas

August WTI crude futures closed out the week at $90.47, a major boost from last week's closeout at $81.77 on the NY Mercantile Exchange. Military action in the Mideast region continues to drive oil prices higher, though the intensity of attacks has diminished over the weekend. $100 oil is probably in the cards unless some kind of agreement between Iran, the U.S. and Israel is reached, so probably not very soon.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $3.97 last week and $4.07 this week, as the Middle East tinderbox exploded with military strikes throughout the region, the MOU between the U.S. and Iran completely shattered and an energy crisis dead ahead.

Reserves have been substantially drained by major economies around the world to keep prices under control, but they have largely reached bottoms. With reserves exhausted, conditions are ripe for a return to $5 gas in the U.S., as the president completely disregards the welfare of U.S. citizens. Prices should reach near-record levels in coming weeks as there seems to be no path toward resolution other than annihilation. It's a sad state of affairs.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.63 (+0.16)
Washington: $5.10 (+0.10)
Indiana (lowest): $3.50 (+0.14)
Oklahoma: $3.74 (+0.22)
Mississippi: $3.64 (+0.10)
Florida: $3.95 (-0.02)
Illinois: $4.25 (+0.10)
Pennsylvania: $4.22 (+0.03)
New York: $4.20 (+0.10)
Maryland: $4.16 (+0.17)
Michigan: $4.21 (+0.06)
Texas: $3.68 (+0.13)
Georgia: $3.91 (+0.17)

On Sunday, July 26th, there are twenty-four (24) states with average prices at or above $4.00, a gain of seven from last week, with 24 below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.39) and Alaska ($4.73), with two above $5 (California and Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past nine weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging below $4.00 ($3.64-3.91) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region a close second, prices ranging from $3.70 to $4.05. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest. Indiana ($3.50) remained the lowest due to Governor Mike Braun suspending state taxes at the pump. On July 2nd he extended the suspension into the first week of August, which will hike the price by as much as 30 cents shortly.

Bitcoin

This week: $64,633.18
Last week: $64,539.98
2 weeks ago: $64,092.58
6 months ago: $88,536.09
One year ago: $119,283.70
Five years ago: $41,538.90

Bitcoin remained flat for the third straight week as the CLARITY act remains stalled in the Senate, the bandits in congress haven't fully endorsed the bill and it faces an uncertain future.

Bitcoin and crypto in general remain among the worst investments of 2026. Bitcoin is down 26% year-to-date.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 69.63; last week: 71.84

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 6/26: $4,103.00
Gold price 7/2: $4,187.30
Gold price 7/10: $4,128.90
Gold price 7/17: $4,023.00
Gold price 7/24: $4,055.70

Silver price 6/26: $59.60
Silver price 7/2: $62.81
Silver price 7/10: $60.30
Silver price 7/17: $56.22
Silver price 7/24: $58.49

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 6/26: $4,089.00
Gold 7/2: $4,122.76
Gold 7/10: $4,119.70
Gold 7/17: $4,016.89
Gold 7/24: $4,052.00

Silver: 6/26: $59.16
Silver 7/2: $60.93
Silver 7/10: $59.85
Silver 7/17: $55.91
Silver 7/24: $58.19

Precious metals rebounded slightly on the week, surprising given the recent trend of following the moves in stocks. That's significant, given China raising margin requirements on paper gold to levels that effectively end the practice. For better or worse (probably better, for gold and silver buyers and holders), the price of gold will soon become the world's standard, based entirely on physical pricing, putting an end, eventually, to the fakery at the COMEX and LBMA. It's time to return to real money, and China has delivered a fat pitch to investors of precious metals.

Central banks are continuing to buy gold as a Tier 1` asset, outpacing Treasuries, and they're getting their loot at a discount, though for how long remain sto be seen. Gold and silver have been suppressed sufficiently in the West to foment action by Asian interests. The U.S. will likely respond as it usually does, by bombing any country trading oil for gold or Chinese yuan, but, overall, the end of paper contracts in China should be a restoration of a better global financial order.

The gold:silver ratio suggests silver may be a good play at these levels.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	59.49	88.00	69.11	68.00
1 oz silver bar:	66.75	83.00	71.70	69.28
1 oz gold coin:	4135.75	4318.60	4254.32	4267.97
1 oz gold bar:	4218.60	4341.15	4258.82	4257.75

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) regained some ground, closing the week at $69.52, a positive move of $1.39 per troy ounce from the July 19 price of $68.13.

Matthew Piepenburg of @GoldSwitzerland explains gold and silver's key underlying drivers, emphasizing that while prices have fallen since the beginning of the year, major global entities are taking the opportunity to load up.

WEEKEND WRAP

Stocks are paper promises, just as gold, oil, and commodity futures. The real things, gold, silver, actual oil stockpiles, food, equipment, profitable business interests, and collectibles are about to see the light of day in many different ways. The change may not be obvious at first, but physical assets appear to be favored over paper, especially as Western fiat currencies continue to be debased at an accelerated rate.

Play nice.

At the Close, Friday, July 24, 2026:
Dow: 51,947.25, +235.60 (+0.46%)
NASDAQ: 24,975.82, -161.87 (-0.64%)
S&P 500: 7,411.98, +3.68 (+0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 23,990.89, +116.61 (+0.49%)

For the Week:
Dow: -199.17 (-0.38%)
NASDAQ: -544.42 (-2.13%)
S&P 500:-45.71 (-0.61%)
NYSE Composite: +173.91 (+0.73%)
Dow Transports: -247.71 (-1.09%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Stocks Seek Comeback Following Tech Rout Thursday; Oil Drops, but Remains High; AI Narrative May Have Blown Up

The week thus far has not been a pleasant one for those in the bull camp.

For the NASDAQ, Tuesday was the only session returned to the upside. Those gains were gradually eroded on Wednesday and completely eviscerated by the fallout Thursday, as market fears of excessive AI capex spending, shaky private credit markets, escalation in the Middle East, and rising bond yields shook investors to their cores.

Hardest hit were the hyperscalers, with Alphabet (GOOGL) leading the slide, dropping 7.13%. Alphabet was added to the Dow Industrials just a week ago. Thursday's results dragged down the 30-stock blue chip index.

Amazon, which announced nothing, but is among the tech companies with the heaviest investment in AI capex, lost 4.57% on the day. Meta Platforms (META) lost 3.36%. Microsoft (MSFT) dropped two percent. Apple (AAPL) shed one percent.

Tesla (TSLA) lost 14% on the day, investors worried about the company's own spending plans on AI, self-driving taxis, and robotics. It surely didn't help matters when the company reported a profit of 31 cents in the second quarter when analysts were expecting 51 cents. Oops.

The NASDAQ broke through prior lows, ending the session at its lowest level since May 4. It is down more than seven percent from its June 2nd high (27,093.90). Trajectory indicates that the downdraft on the NASDAQ is far from over. The last time tihe index reported three straight winning sessions was June 15.

Early Friday morning, stock futures were sailing higher on the back of some sketchy earnings by Intel (INTC) which reported late Thursday. For the quarter, Intel blew away estimates, with earnings per share of $0.38 on revenue of $16.1 billion. Wall Street was anticipating EPS of $0.21 on revenue of $14.43 billion. The stock initially boomed more than 10% in after-hours trading.

With the cash open looming, those gains have been pared down to about three percent. After all, with the share price at its closing level of 100 on Thursday, the stock was already up more than 170% year-to-date and had recently topped out at 140 per share. Beating estimates that are low hurdles doesn't actually make the company a good investment. The wins this quarter don't even outweigh the losses from the first quarter ($3.7 billion). The chart, and the move from $41 in March to $140 in June looks to be mostly the work of insiders after the government took an equity position in the company.

Whatever the futures are forecasting for Friday probably are only going to provide a shot-term bounce that may not last the morning. The issues facing the market are not about to be resolved over the course of one session, one week, or even one month. This appears to be a long unwind that the elites wish to control by keeping reality at bay via the usual rosy narrative. It doesn't appear to be working very well.

As of Thursday's close, the Dow was down 434 points on the week. The NASDAQ was off 382, and the S&P was down 49 points. The week has been far short of an outright disaster. Friday's sentiment will complete the story. For now, it's not looking very positive. At 8:45 am ET, Dow futures are up 190, but are down from earlier highs. NASDAQ futures are up a very modest 12 points, and S&P futures are showing an 11-point gain, but all of them are beginning to slide toward the red.

Friday's trading may be more about testing positions, seeing whether the Mag7 stocks can regain some lost ground via dip-buyers, though even that would be pushing on a string. The AI narrative continues to break down; the War vs. Iran continues to devolve into what appears to be another forever war, the price of oil took a small dive overnight, but U.S. gas prices continue to rise, hitting a national average of $4.09 today, according to GasBuddy.com.

The June 2nd highs for the NASDAQ and S&P are beginning to look more and more like tops. The Dow, late to the party, peaked on July 6th (53,055.91) and is down a little more than two percent, but needs a catalyst to move forward and none appears to be in the works.

There's an FOMC meeting next week (July 28-29), but the Fed isn't likely to make any move, one way or the other. Tightening at this juncture would appear to be off the table. The latest rally - from the end of March to late June, early July, was built mostly on hope that the Mideast would be sorted out and oil would flow from the Gulf unimpeded. With that seemingly off the table, there's a world of worry setting the tone.

At the Close, Thursday, July 23, 2026:
Dow: 51,711.65, -506.93 (-0.97%)
NASDAQ: 25,137.69, -553.21 (-2.15%)
S&P 500: 7,408.30, -90.66 (-1.21%)
NYSE Composite: 23,874.27, -45.44 (-0.19%)

Alphabet, Tesla, Spiking Oil Prices Send Markets into Tailspin; Treasury Yields Rising; Stocks Under Severe Pressure

Heading into Thursday's cash market, conditions don't appear to favor stocks in general or tech favorites in particular. After the close Wednesday, a couple of heavyweights reported second quarter results that fell short of market expectations. Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are sending not-so-subtle notice that stocks may be - big surprise - a bit overvalued.

Chipping in to the downside thrust, Texas Instruments (TXN) reported better-than-expected results and raised guidance, but the market isn't buying it, sending shares lower by four percent in the pre-market.

IBM added injury to insult, having already warned about a decline in service revenue, posting second quarter revenue of $17.16 billion, up 1% from a year earlier. Adjusted earnings per share were $2.93. Analysts had expected revenue of $17.58 billion and adjusted earnings of $2.97 per share, according to CNBC. The stock is down two percent prior to Thursday's open.

Alphabet (GOOGL), recently added to the Dow, is the main focus this morning, with investors still skeptical about capex levels the company has committed to for the remainder of this year and into 2027 and 2028. Alphabet is the leading hyperscaler, the moniker given to companies that are spending heavily on data center buildout in order to manage the huge demands of AI in business and consumer markets. While most of these projects are moving forward, there's also a movement afoot locally and to a degree nationally, to ban or bar data center construction due to excessive demands on the electrical grid and local water supplies.

Google, Amazon, Microsoft and others plan on a massive expansion of computing capacity, while analysts fail to see profitability on the horizon, which remains the primary roadblock in terms of share prices. Alphabet, after posting what were generally positive results, is trading lower by about five percent in the pre-market.

Tesla (TSLA) is another company on the capex roller coaster, though to a much lesser extent than the hyperscalers. CEO Elon Musk is committing more than $25 billion to expansion this year, minuscule compared to the $200 billion exposure at Alphabet. Tesla plans continued investments into self-driving cars and robo-taxis and is committed to AI and robotics initiatives.

Thursday, before the open, American Airlines (AAL) reported a positive quarter with EPS at 15 cents per share against estimates of a mere three cents. The company lowered guidance, however, as high jet fuel prices continue to put pressure on margins and proit.

Defense contractor, Lockheed Martin (LMT), beat on EPS and issued better guidance, sending shares higher by about five to six percent. Another bright spot was farm and garden retailer, Tractor Supply (TSCO), which beat estimates and is trading two percent to the upside.

The overall market picture is clouded by tech, however. The current investing environment doesn't seem to need much of a story to commence selling, and the first miscues in the tech sector have set off enough alarm bells to send everything into what could become an equity maelstrom. Adding to the malaise is the continuation of hostilities in the Middle East as recent tit-for-tat assaults by Iran and the United States have send oil prices through the roof again. WTI crude oil has topped $90 a barrel this morning. With the Strait of Hormuz essentially closed to commercial traffic and the U.S. and Western allies having already drained the bulk of their strategic reserves, the outlook for oil prices is not good, with estimates ranging from $100 to $150 per barrel near term, depending on the length of the conflict and degree of destruction by the warring parties.

In general, Thursday is shaping up as a major selling event. Dow futures at 9:00 am ET are down 540 points. NASDAQ futures are down 408, with S&P futures off 75 points.

Gold and silver are being slapped lower, though that condition of not being a safe haven in times such as these, is largely the result of manipulation at the COMEX and LBMA. The fiat riggers can't stand to lose, but their days are numbered. When their control cartel is finally vanquished, prices for precious metals will become, well, "precious."

Piling onto the worry wall are treasury notes and bond yields. The 10-year spiked to 4.70%, with the 30-year bond at 5.15%.

The unpleasant reminders that prices, valuations, and being naughty or nice to your neighbors still matters is not about to be lost on this market.

At the Close, Wednesday, July 22, 2026:
Dow: 52,218.58, -6.06 (-0.01%)
NASDAQ: 25,690.90, -146.30 (-0.57%)
S&P 500: 7,498.96, -10.24 (-0.14%)
NYSE Composite: 23,919.71, +29.53 (+0.12%)

Churning Markets Appear Ready for a Change; Big Tech Names to Announce After the Close; War in Middle East Heats Up

There's little happening today in terms of change events other than the stocks that went up on Tuesday are scheduled to go down on Wednesday. That's just how it goes in a headline-dominated environment. One day, hyperscalers and semis are good, the next day, not so much.

While most of the market participants are waiting for a breakout, something that could move the whole market, a breakdown appears to be the most likely near-term outcome. Stocks rallied sharply right at the end of the first quarter, as the U.S. and Iran announced a temporary ceasefire. It almost seemed too convenient. End of quarter, end of hostilities, mark up the right names to show investors a solid second quarter and maybe Trump would have worked through his neocon escapade. Onward and upward, mission accomplished.

That's not exactly what happened. While Wall Street got its wish and a super second quarter, the wheels are falling off the narrative and the valuations, especially at the NASDAQ where most of the big tech names are parked and trading has become rather choppy. There haven't been more than two straight winning sessions since the middle of June.

With the S&P and NASDAQ topping out on June 2nd and the Dow coming to the party late, on July 6 (ostensively, part of the Presidential 250 narrative, "stocks are at all time highs"), it's been mostly a slippery slope since.

The Middle East is all aflame again, and, while Israel seems to have cooled its heels of late, the Houthis are back at it, threatening shipping on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula. It's getting messy again, and that's not good for the price of oil, which has hiked as high as $88.50 for WTI crude this morning. The politically-sensitive national average price of gas at the pump is back above $4.00, which serves to reinforce the attitude of a majority of Americans that the war with Iran is wasteful, stupid, unnecessary, and harmful to U.S. interests. The idea that they are probably right doesn’t really register in the reptilian minds of most neocons.

Lindsey Graham remains dead, the bright light of hope.

Approaching the open, stock futures have trimmed their losses. Dow futures are down 64 points; NASDAQ futures are off 250; S&P futures are down 23. The most interesting twist this morning is in precious metals, with both silver and gold sporting early gains. Nearing 9:00 am ET, gold is up around $40, to $4117, while silver got within earshot of $60 before falling back to $59.10 this morning.

After the close Wednesday, some of the more important tech and industrial names will be announcing second quarter results, including IBM (IBM), Tesla (TSLA), Alphabet (GOOGL), Texas Instruments (TXN), Crown Castle (CCI), CSX (CSX), and Kinder Morgan (KMI).

Setting up for some volatility today.

At the Close, Tuesday, July 21, 2026:
Dow: 52,224.64, +385.38 (+0.74%)
NASDAQ: 25,837.21, +329.13 (+1.29%)
S&P 500: 7,509.20, +65.92 (+0.89%)
NYSE Composite: 23,890.19, +220.54 (+0.93%)

Recipe for a Correction: Stocks Flat to Lower After Reporting Earnings; Yields Rising on Long-Dated Maturities in Treasury Market

It's been said that bond traders are ten times smarter than their stock hustling counterparts.

Whether or not there's any truth to the statement is hardly relevant. Let's just say bond traders are more diligent and discriminating than their counterparts dealing in equities. Be that as it may, something worth noticing has been unfurling in the flagging treasury market. Amid a stock market mini-meltdown, there's not been a rush to fixed income; the cagy old pros have been selling long-dated maturities, not buying, as would normally be the case in a "flight to quality."

Yield on the 10-year note hit 4.60% on Monday. The 30-year bond was throwing off an eye-catching 5.18%. Those are numbers beyond the psychological levels that have been repeatedly warned and worried over, 4.50% and 5.00%, and, if the smartest guys on Wall Street are selling already, what happens when stocks get really hot and bothered? More than likely, they'll be buying, at yields higher than current levels.

That may happen sooner, but probably later. There will be a run to the safety of finxed income and away from risky stocks, but it may prove to be short-lived. The scale of buying is likely to be at a measured pace. Bonds are much less volatile than stocks, and the managers tasked with trading debt instruments aren't about to go all in at 4.75% on the 10s or 5.25% on 30s. A nibble here, a nibble there. Before you now it, the 10-year, once considered dangerous at 4.50%, will look heavenly at 4.85% and the 30-year at 5.65%, both generous returns - much better than the average dividend yield on most stocks - with what will be perceived as minimal risk.

Rising bond yields are what naturally happens when money is too loose for too long. The American debt machine has rung up nearly $40 trillion in government debt, just at the federal level. States and municipalities, counties, and villages have dug their own debt graves and will continue digging. Individual and corporate debt are at extremes, with credit card debt at an all-time high (at an average of nearly 22%), mortgage failures and foreclosures rising rapidly and more than 40% of recent new car loans underwater, the debt binge is close to reaching its stupefying, cataclysmic climax. Nobody can just keep borrowing and borrowing more to pay off the interest - which is what the government has been doing for 40+ years - indefinitely. Eventually, the numbers just become too grotesque, too large to hide, and too onerous to handle.

U.S. government debt recently passed $39.5 trillion, just a hop, skip, and jump away from the $40 trillion mark. While there's nothing inherently magical about $40 trillion, or even $50 or $60 trillion, large, round numbers do give people reason to pause. The government will spend over $1.1 trillion in interest payments alone this fiscal year and that number is not expected to decline at all for the foreseeable future. At some point - and that point has already been reached by central banks of other major economies - there's reason to doubt the invincibility of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency. It's OK, if you like paying interest on debt incurred years or decades ago for your entire life, but it's not a plan anybody with a free conscious and open mind would choose to pursue. At this juncture, however, there's no plans to make any changes. The government will issue debt, the Fed will cover it, the purchasing power of the backing currency will decline. It's just straight up math, though it does play out rather slowly, as in decades and across generations.

Since the 1970s, the United States has managed to destroy its creditor nation position to become the world's largest debtor. The wealth of the U.S. is all created by debt, and, so far, it's working, though living standards overall have been in decline since the early 2000s and are, in many parts of the country that aren't discussed at fancy parties, getting even worse. Inner cities have become homeless tent centers. Appalachia, always an area of severe poverty, has been completely devastated by a lack of new jobs, drug addiction, and the ultimate ravages of long-term underemployment.

Most people won't look over there and see the depression and hopelessness that prevails, but they are looking at their grocery bills, mortgage or rent payments, insurance and health costs eating away at their weekly or bi-weekly paychecks, and it's not just a little scary, it's very scary. People in their 30s and 40s trying to raise families are scraping by on two salaries. A generation or two ago, they'd have been prosperous and happy. Today's working couples are concerned and cornered by debt and inflation. As soon as they manage to make some headway in their income/expense ratio, gas prices, or food prices, or school fees or property taxes take another bite.

Of course, none of this is of any concern to the stock pushers on Wall Street or the slippery fish floating around congress. They aren't in that "class" of people, after all, and they look out for themselves pretty well, which is one of the reasons why they always appear to be in control, touting the latest discoveries or advancements and pretending that the whole U.S. economy is just fine and dandy, thank you.

They'll never tell you the truth. Those bond guys may be onto something, however.

***

After the usual celebratory opening spike in stocks, the major indices took a nose dive the rest of the day. The Dow was the first to capitulate, dropping into the red before 10:00 am ET. The S&P and NASDAQ were more resistant, bouncing around most of the session in positive territory before closing out with minor losses.

This is exactly the kind of market that portfolio managers don’t want to see during what should be a robust earnings season.

Domino's Pizza (DPZ) reported solid results before he open and ended the day up just more than two percent, at 328.97. Too bad it opened at 350 and got portioned out and devoured throughout the stuffed-crust session.

Irish ultra-low-cost airline carrier, Ryanair (RYAAY), reported a 34% Y/Y drop in its first-quarter profit because of higher jet fuel prices and lower fares, helping explain why investors took profits and ran, sending the stock down 5.85% on Monday.

After the close Monday, reporting were:
Zions Bancorporation (ZION) - down 5% ater reporting solid quarterly results
Crown Holdings (CCK) - beat, raised expectations, stock is flat in pre-market
Steel Dynamics (STLD) - second-quarter profit, revenue rise on improved steel pricing, shares down one percent

Tuesday, before the opening bell, these companies reported Q2 results:
Ally (ALLY) - in-line to beat on bottom line, shares flat
DR Horton (DHI) - earnings beat, but profits down 12%, shares down one percent
Charles Schwab (SCHW) - eps beat, record revenue, shares down 1-2%
General Motors (GM) - earnings beat, boosts guidance, shares down one percent
3M (MMM) - shares rally 7 % after second-quarter earnings beat and higher full-year outlook
Halliburton (HAL) - higher revenue, earnings beat, shares down 4%

Outside of 3M, a pattern, which has already emerged from last week, continues to haunt dealers with intentions for profit-making trades. Earnings reports, good, bad, or otherwise, are being used as a rationale to sell. This implies an immediacy to raising cash or to escape from positions that appear to be facing institutional liquidation. There's three months before the next report, so why not cash out now and buy back in before the next glowing quarterly report, or, move money elsewhere?

It makes plenty of sense considering the mostly outrageous price:value ratio. On that basis, General Motors, the makers of mostly sub-standard, over-priced motor vehicles, appears to be the ripest short of the bunch, sporting a PE above 30 (no, it's not a growth company) and a dividend yield of 0.95% (Yes, grandma, I can turn your $10,000 into $10,095 in a year. "You go run along and play in traffic, sonny.").

There is ample reason to believe that the stock market has already made the trun from bullish to bearish.

The NASDAQ is down 5.85% since June 2nd's all-time high (27,093.90). The S&P is down just over two percent over the same span, but it is the NASDAQ that represents the heart of trading in semis, tech, hyperscalers, Mag7, etc., and that is also the opening narrative for stocks heading into Tuesday's session: Tech rebound. With the NAZ already down nearly six percent, who exactly is buying into that particualr fable?

Institutions want out, but not before they lure retail into the trap. Any gains today will e gone tomorrow. That appears to be the current zeitgeist or corporate strategy. It's not working. People have less and less faith in institutional passive investing every day. Additionally, baby boomers are dying and passing along assets in 401k and other plans to their heirs, who are quickly liquidating them to pay themselves for years of diligent elderly care and a better life.

The longer the lies of the elites continue, the further the actuarial tables tell the real story.

Futures are putting lipstick and mascara on this pig of a market with NASDAQ futures up 400 points prior to the open. Dow futures are up 135; S&P futures are up 33. Bear in mind the NASDAQ can rise 400 or 500 points and still be down 3-4%. It’s nothing more than churning a dead cat that refuses to bounce very much.

Fewer and fewer suckers are being fooled only because there are fewer of them still breathing. There are more sellers than buyers. Recipe for a correction.

At the Close, Monday, July 20, 2026:
Dow: 51,839.26, -307.16 (-0.59%)
NASDAQ: 25,508.07, -12.17 (-0.05%)
S&P 500: 7,443.28, -14.41 (-0.19%)
NYSE Composite: 23,669.65, -147.32 (-0.62%)