CPI Prints Just Hot Enough to Provoke Thoughts of Another Rate Hike at the Fed; Market Roller Coaster May Fly off the Tracks

Like day-trading, trying to figure out why major indices move one way or the other on a given day is a fool's errand. Given the trading sequence since the midterms, all that one can assume is that the markets are volatile, or, in unofficial parlance, "jumpy."

One thing is certain. The major indices are lower than they were following Wednesday's massive influence rally, the key being "influence" as borrowed from Peak Prosperity's Dr. Chris Martenson, who uses the term as a pejorative replacement for "manipulation." The majors are also down from a month ago and recent highs.

Martenson cites the wild swing in futures on election eve, when stock futures were sliding deep into the red but suddenly reversed course in the middle of the night. Futures positive on Wednesday morning sparked the mysterious rally, only to be reversed the following day. A similar event took place upon Trump's first election, back in 2016. Memory will serve to note that futures were not just slipping when it became clear that Trump was going to win the presidential popularity contest, but collapsing. S&P futures were down multiple hundreds of points, but reversed direction in the middle of the night and opened the next day glowing green.

There are countless other examples of this somewhat inexplicable kind of behavior. It happens on a regular basis and is one damn good reason why many people don't trust Wall Street or most markets. Influence of an institutional breed directed by computer algorithms is an element of owning and trading stocks, bonds, and commodities that has become engrained in what used to be known as fair and free markets. Today's public markets are at best only partially fair and by no means free from "influence."

Getting past the conspiracy-style reading of day-to-day market movement brings up Tuesday's key economic data drop, the latest (October) CPI reading from the BLS.

Here's the rundown:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in October after rising 0.6 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in October, accounting for over thirty percent of the monthly all items increase. The food index increased 0.5 percent in October, as the food at home index rose 0.4 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.5 percent. The index for energy increased 0.7 percent over the month following a 5.2-percent increase in September.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in October, as it did in September and August. Indexes that increased over the month include recreation, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings and operations, and education. Conversely, the index for used cars and trucks and the index for communication were among the small number of major indexes that decreased in October.

That little tidbit of influence sent stock futures crashing lower because the data exceeded expert expectations, not by much, but enough to signal that the Fed is going to hike the federal funds target rate at least another 25 basis points (and maybe 50) at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting, and that, friends, is not at all good for the beloved stock market.

So, draw a line through Monday's snappy two-percent-plus rally and keep dreaming about Democrats fixing anything, including the national debt, Epstein files (according to present Republican - soon to depart - leader Johnson, a national security issue), broad-based corruption, or, oh yeah, inflation (shorthand for loss of purchasing power, i.e. debased currency).

Nothing much will change under a Democrat congress other than different people will be occupying the seats. The war in Ukraine will continue. The government will continue to overspend to the tune of $2 trillion annual deficits as far as the eye can see. Basic necessities - food, energy, shelter - will continue to cost more than yesterday, last week, last month, etc. It's a uniparty, and regular Americans have not been invited.

As for stocks, enjoy the roller coaster, but keep in mind that an economy that benefits the top 10% the most will eventually fall under the weight of the bottom 90% unable to afford a house, gas in the auto, nutritious food and just about anything else.

If the past 26 years has taught people anything at all, it's that the government doesn't actually care about most of the people it is supposed to be serving. Government is owned by special interests who fund their campaigns and excesses.

Bad behavior by government uppity-ups almost never brings bounty to the working class. That's just the way it is.

At the Close, Monday, November 9, 2026:
Dow: 52,389.75, +1,104.02 (+2.15%)
NASDAQ: 25,253.14, +673.74 (+2.74%)
S&P 500: 7,549.94, +173.08 (+2.35%)
NYSE Composite: 24,472.62, +522.25 (+2.18%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Republicans Rebuked in Midterms; Democrats Seize Power; Stocks Slashed; Oil, Gas Prices Drop; Gold, Silver Rebound; Markets Cautiously Chaotic

The past week was probably the most consequential since Trump won a second term as president in 2024, the tariff tantrum of April, 2025, or the start of the Iran War at the end of February, 2026, sending shock waves through the political spectrum and landing a near-veto-proof majority in the House of Representatives, and, presently, a commanding 54-44 advantage in the Senate, with races in Mississippi and Alaska still pending. Democrats lead in both undecided races by thin margins, with legal battles and recounts looming. It may be as long as three to four weeks before these races are finally decided. Should the Democrats hold their advantage, the 56-44 majority would be near the 2/3rds (67 votes) majority needed to convict President Trump, should the House decide it's worth the effort.

Once again, politics come clearly into play, as impeaching Trump would put Vice President J.D. Vance in the White House, giving him time to craft his policy and run for the presidency as an incumbent in 2028, though under suspect circumstances. Vance, who has quietly opposed the war with Iran, came out directly after the election and broke with the White House, saying that the war cost the Republicans the House and Senate. This kind of positioning is standard fare for Vance, who is vulnerable to criticism as a turncoat. He was a "never-Trumper" before switching up his rhetoric to become Trump's running mate in 2024. Democrats would likely use his "flip-flopping" against him in a campaign.

Two Democrats to keep eyes on heading toward the presidential election in 2028 are Roy Cooper and Jon Ossoff. Cooper, former two-term governor of North Carolina, handily defeated Republican Michael Whatley in the Senate race last week. Ossoff returned to the Senate for a second term, defeating Republican nominee Mike Collins in a landslide. Cooper will turn 70 next year. Ossoff, is 39. Both are more mainstream than many of their colleagues and a movement toward their form of working class politics would mark a dramatic change away from the radicalized fringe that has emerged over the last 20 years.

Whether either runs for president is still too early to tell. If they enter primaries, they each would be formidable candidates with solid credentials. A Cooper/Ossoff ticket might prove unbeatable in a national general election, given the massive shift toward Democrats that occurred last week.

The event of Tuesday, November 3, represents a complete repudiation of President Trump's policies and the execution of his mandate. Trump backstabbed his self-created MAGA movement, reneging on campaign promises from fiscal policies to ending the Ukraine conflict to not starting new wars. His arrogance and questionable financial dealings in the crypto space (Trump and Melania coins) and elsewhere, using "truths" or tweets on his Truth Social and X.com platforms to influence markets and having his sons Eric and Donald Jr. and son-in-law Jared Kushner involved in defense-related, real estate, and crypto ventures. Should the House move to impeach Trump for a third time, there's a good chance that enough Republicans in the Senate would be inclined to convict him.

Such a scenario might run in a manner similar to that of Richard M. Nixon, who resigned from office in 1974 rather than face impeachment. Fallout from the Watergate scandal left many Republicans off the record in favor of impeachment. Nixon took the easy way out and was pardoned by his successor, Gerald Ford, though he was neither indicted nor convicted of any crimes. Trump may face similar circumstances and also bow out with some integrity still intact.

This is all speculation and Democrats are still fleshing out their priorities before returning to Washington in the week ahead. There's already talk of an imminent impeachment of Pentagon chief, Pete Hegseth, and Attorney General Todd Blanche. The temperature in D.C. is about to heat up as winter approaches. At the White House, change has already begun. Chief of Staff Suzy Wiles is out, replaced by her Deputy, Stephen Miller.

Aisde from impeachment possibilities, the other main issues are the War in Iran and the ongoing inflation and affordability crisis. Trump's appointment of Miller as Chief of Staff indicates the president is inclined to keep the war effort going, despite the intensity of public dissatisfaction. Ultimate resolution in Iran will likely come to a head over funding. Democrats may not approve additional spending in Iran, though they're still gung-ho on funding Ukraine, though at lower levels than previously.

As the new congress takes office officially in January, the general attitude in Washington is one of open conflict between the parties. Democrats will launch various investigations in a plethora of committees, touching on everything from corruption and enriching vested interests to health care and beyond. It's going to resemble a circus without a ringleader, at least for the next 6-12 months.

What all of this has to do with investments is also yet unknown, but the message delivered by the markets post-election tended to suggest that moratoria on AI data center buildouts will face intense pressure, regulations, and permitting issues by Democrats in local jurisdictions. With tech and semiconductor stocks taking a clear beating this week, the "blue tsunami" may have managed to blow away the AI bubble in one massive gust.

The mood on Wall Street changed overnight on Wednesday and Thursday, after a rally arose from the ashes of defeat, only to be overwhelmed by a massive selloff that shook the established sentiment to its core. It's no longer all right to jump right into passive investing via index funds. The market is becoming more selective and sector rotation is underway, though most of the money flows went from stocks straight into fixed income, especially treasuries, sending interest rates down to levels not seen in two months.

The knee-jerk response is not likely to last. The declines of the week will be tempered by economic data and the upcoming holiday season. If the market makes it through Christmas without completely falling apart, driven by events and indications within and outside the Beltway, January is likely to be a bellwether. If there's a spate of selling, it would indicate that profits are being taken and losses will continue. Stocks, even after the week's drawdown, remain largely overvalued and a reversion to the mean is highly probable. Whether it commences immediately or is drawn out over many months is the key consideration, but, one thing is certain: the investment environment is filled will potholes and tripwires. A dangerous time has commenced.

Stocks

Stocks took a serious beating in the week of the midterms:
Dow: -484.58 (-0.94%)
NASDAQ: -857.57 (-3.37%)
S&P 500: -203.21 (-2.68%)
NYSE Composite: -342.72 (-1.41%)
Dow Transports: -554.46 (-2.73%)

The most obvious targets were the hyper-inflated AI and Semi sectors. The NASDAQ and S&P were beaten down viciously. Money fled to the relative safety of dividend-bearing stocks and fixed-income investments. How long that money flow will sustain is doubtful. Wall Street's appetite will emerge during dips, but, rather than a continuing rally, dip-buyers are now more likely to be carried out in body bags. Earnings season is nearing an end and the political atmosphere will gather momentum prior to the predictions and smiles of the holiday season. Now that the "event" has passed, the earth scorched, Wall Street's resolve to keep the stock market humming along has been dented and value may become more favored than growth.

One of the more prominent features of third quarter earnings season was the number of companies missing estimates on the revenue side, an indication that businesses were feeling the pinch because consumers were being wrecked by high prices at the gas and grocery checkout lines. Increased costs for "the core", food and energy, leaves less to spend on discretionary items. The holiday season is likely to be challenging for retailers as consumers are not exactly in a cheerful mood, given high prices and stretched budgets. Americans, however, being the free-spenders that they are, will make the rounds and run up credit cards just because that's what people do in desperate times, throwing caution to the wind in exchange for more immediate satisfaction. Everything is purchased on credit - from housing to home appliances to even the basics. It's a sorry state of affairs in the debt-based economy, one of the worst periods ever in U.S. history for affordability.

The week ahead offers a cross-section of straggler companies reporting third quarter earnings:

Monday (before open): Constellation (CEG), Barrick (B), Sharplink (SBET); (after close): Hims|Hers (HIMS), Plug (PLUG)

Tuesday (before open): Bitdeer (BTDR); (after close): CoreWeave (CRWV), Grocery Outlet (GO), Inovio (INO)

Wednesday (before open): Sigma Lithium (SGML), Innoviz (INVZ), Rumble (RUM); (after close): Star Equity (STRR), Integra Resources (ITRG)

Thursday, (before open): ntuitive Machines (LUNR), Enovix (ENVX); (after close): Nuecor (NU), Cisco (CSCO), Applied Materials (AMAT), Dragonfly (DFLI), Cerebras (CBRS)

Friday, (before open): Noodles & Company (NDLS), SBC Medical Group (SBC), Suncrete (RMIX)

Economic data will be scant in the week ahead with focus on October CPI, due out an hour before the opening bell on Tuesday. PPI mysteriously comes out at the same time on Friday, an aberration, as the CPI and PPI normally are released on consecutive days. October existing home sales are out on Thursday.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
10/02/2026	4.04	4.09	4.11	4.19	4.26	4.27	4.46
10/09/2026	4.13	4.13	4.13	4.25	4.29	4.32	4.47
10/16/2026	4.12	4.14	4.17	4.26	4.32	4.34	4.46
10/23/2026	4.11	4.11	4.16	4.22	4.30	4.30	4.44
10/30/2026	4.06	4.09	4.16	4.16	4.18	4.25	4.36
11/06/2026	4.02	4.07	4.15	4.19	4.19	4.23	4.33

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
10/02/2026	4.83	4.96	5.06	5.17	5.28	5.67	5.63
10/09/2026	4.80	4.89	5.02	5.13	5.24	5.65	5.60
10/16/2026	4.74	4.82	4.89	4.98	5.09	5.47	5.43
10/23/2026	4.69	4.75	4.82	4.89	5.00	5.37	5.33
10/30/2026	4.56	4.65	4.71	4.80	4.94	5.34	5.31
11/06/2026	4.51	4.59	4.64	4.74	4.86	5.29	5.26

Yields dropped for a fifth straight week, mostly thanks to the midterm election results and the resultant flight to safety. The 30-year bond yield dropped to 5.26%, with the 10% breaking further below 5.00%, to $4.86, both two-month lows. Spreads held fairly steady, with full spectrum at +124 and 2s-10s lower, at +35.

The flight out of stocks after the elections helped the bond market's reputation as a safe haven for the present. That condition isn't likely to last long, with the October jobs report showing strong employment, giving the FOMC enough fuel to raise interest rates at least 25 basis points at the December meeting. The possibility of a raise of 0.50% is on the table and will be determined by conditions in the market and economic data releases prior to the December 9 date.

Falling interest rates are a godsend for Treasury Secretary Bessent, who, as the chief architect of fiscal policy for the now-embattled administration, will receive his fair share of scrutiny. More likely to be called before investigative committees in the House and/or Senate is Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, for his tariff and trade policies.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37
7/24: +36
7/31: +47
8/7: +46
8/14: +51
8/21: +50
8/28: +39
9/4: +41
9/11: +33
9/18: +25
9/25: +36
10/2: +45
10/9: +44
10/16: +35
10/23: +31
10/30: +38
11/6: +35

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133
7/24: +136
7/31: +149
8/7: +140
8/14: +146
8/21: +147
8/28: +138
9/4: +145
9/11: +142
9/18: +137
9/25: +145
10/2: +159
10/9: +147
10/16: +131
10/23: +122
10/30: +125
11/6: +124

Oil/Gas

WTI Crude Oil futures dropped from an October 30 high of $104.12 to close Friday, November 6, at $90.34, a one-month low, on supposed expectations that the midterm results might bring an accelerated end to the conflict. Such an assessment has to be made with appropriate grains of salt as there are continuing indications that the war will re-engage. Neither side - U.S. or Iran - has conceded anything. The price of oil should be expected to remain high and volatile.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.12 last week and $4.00 this week, falling just a little too late to save the bacon for the Republican party. American consumers and drivers may welcome the relief, especially if it lasts and continues to trend lower. Questions of whether a Democrat-controlled congress can get gas prices lower exist from coast to coast.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.72 (-0.14)
Washington: $5.02 (-0.14)
Indiana: $3.61 (-0.20)
Oklahoma: $3.52 (-0.19)
Louisiana: $3.49 (-0.15)
Mississippi: $3.60 (-0.12)
Florida: $3.83 (+0.01)
Illinois: $4.47 (-0.24)
Pennsylvania: $4.36 (-0.07)
New York: $4.24 (-0.07)
Maryland: $3.92 (-0.05)
Michigan: $4.16 (-0.35)
Texas: $3.39 (-0.20)
Georgia: $3.45 (-0.08)
North Carolina $3.24 (lowest) (-0.09)

On Sunday, November 8, there are twenty-three (23) states with average prices at or above $4.00, with twenty-five (25) below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.64) and Alaska ($4.61), with three above $5 (California, Nevada, and Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past 19 weeks, with prices generally below $4.00 ($3.23-3.72) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region second, prices slightly higher, from $3.71 to $3.92. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest.

Northeast states, north of Delaware and Maryland all the way to Maine, continue to average above $4.00, though they have been dropping over the past three weeks.

Bitcoin

This week: $75,980.77
Last week: $77,712.22
2 weeks ago: $80,529.22
6 months ago: $80,380.30
One year ago: $101,704.20
Five years ago: $62,404.50

Crypto face-planted after the election. The sooner cyrpto is eradicated fron the universe, the better.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 78.54 last week: 78.84

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 10/9: $4,220.30
Gold price 10/16: $4,186.70
Gold price 10/23: $4,010.00
Gold price 10/30: $3,884.90
Gold price 11/6: $4,079.50

Silver price 10/9: $61.11
Silver price 10/16: $57.13
Silver price 10/23: $53.96
Silver price 10/30: $49.13
Silver price 11/6: $51.97

SPOT: (Kitco)
Gold 10/9: $4,193.60
Gold 10/16: $4,164.10
Gold 10/23: $3,994.90
Gold 10/30: $3,873.81
Gold 11/6: $4,070.10

Silver 10/9: $60.70
Silver 10/16: $56.87
Silver 10/23: $53.80
Silver 10/30: $49.13
Silver 11/6: $51.82

Have gold and silver finally bottomed?

The answer depends upon location and perspective. In Asia, prices have been depressed and have likely found a temporary floor. In Western economies (Europe, U.S., U.K.) are probably going to see another drop, possible setting a double bottom, but there also may be further deterioration as congress changes hands in January.

The interim period from now through the end of the year looks promising for precious metals, however. The only truly big event comes on December 9, when the Fed's FOMC decides on interest rate policy. A hike of 0.25% is pretty much baked into the cake, though the Fed may add some frosting with a 50 basis point (0.50%) move.

Indications are positive for the lows being in over the past week. With chaos the overriding theme in international as well as national politics, the safe haven theme of precious metals should dominate. Further out, into 2027 and beyond, the potential for a price rally is evident, though a recession could change the calculus overall. In such a situation, gold and silver should be considered apart from value in dollars, euros, yen, and pounds, but wealth be measured by weight. It isn't how much one's gold and silver is worth in fiat terms, but in weight of grams, ounces, pounds, and tonnes.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	57.00	72.21	62.85	62.00
1 oz silver bar:	61.00	75.66	65.99	64.24
1 oz gold coin:	4200.00	4419.39	4324.00	4326.30
1 oz gold bar:	4249.89	4391.95	4312.27	4293.32

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) reversed higher, to $63.77, a gain of $1.88 per troy ounce from the November 1 price of $61.89.

WEEKEND WRAP

While the political condition remains largely in a state of flux, as events unfold there's not likely to be any pause in the madness of politics and politicians seeking power. What evolves or devolves over the next two years in Washington and on Wall Street - the two largely inseparable - can be described accurately in one word: chaos.

At the Close, Friday, November 6, 2026:
Dow: 51,285.73, -237.33 (-0.46%)
NASDAQ: 24,579.42, +264.43 (+1.09%)
S&P 500: 7,376.86, +23.13 (+0.31%)
NYSE Composite: 23,950.37, -5.60 (-0.02%)

For the Week:
Dow: -484.58 (-0.94%)
NASDAQ: -857.57 (-3.37%)
S&P 500: -203.21 (-2.68%)
NYSE Composite: -342.72 (-1.41%)
Dow Transports: -554.46 (-2.73%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Stocks Battered as Reality of Democrat Sweep Takes Hold; Non-Farm Payrolls Up 165,000 in October; Friday Frenzy Approaches

Wall Street had one of its worst days in years on Thursday, November 5, as a selloff in artificial intelligence and chip stocks wiped out the market’s post-election rally. The NASDAQ Composite plunged 1,421.52 points, or 5.5%, to 24,315, its worst day in about a year and a half, and closed in correction territory, as much as 14% below the record it set just a month earlier. The S&P 500 fell 334.89 points, or 4.4%, to 7,353.73, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,833.06 points, or 3.4%, to 51,523.06. Small companies weren’t spared: the Russell 2000 also lost 4.4%.

The rout came just two days after Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate in Tuesday’s midterm elections. Stocks first cheered the result, with the Dow jumping 3% on Wednesday, its best day after a midterm since 1982. But by Thursday, investors had turned to what a Democratic Congress might mean for the massive AI data center buildout that has powered the market for the past three years. The Dow’s Thursday drop was its worst second trading day after a midterm election since 1896.

Chip stocks took the hardest hit. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 12.25%, its second-biggest one-day drop on record. Micron, AMD and Marvell each fell about 17%, SanDisk fell 22%, and Broadcom lost 10.4%. Chip-equipment makers Lam Research and Applied Materials are now down 36% and 30% over the past month. The Nasdaq-100 alone lost about $2.3 trillion in market value in a single session.

The Magnificent Seven all dropped. Tesla led the way down, falling 10.8% on merger and regulatory worries tied to Democratic gains. Nvidia, the face of the AI boom, dropped 9.3%. Meta fell 4%, Microsoft 3.6%, Alphabet and Amazon about 2.2% each, and Apple 1.5%, the smallest loss of the group. Software names that had been AI winners, including Palantir and CrowdStrike, were down more than 10% at their lows.

Fear spiked across the market. The VIX volatility index, Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” jumped more than 65% to above 27, its biggest one-day jump in more than two years. Individual investors sold about $358 million in stocks, on pace for their heaviest selling day since the COVID crash of March 2020, according to Vanda Research, with “no signs of buying the dip.” Some strategists, however, saw the selloff mainly as hedge funds locking in big 2026 gains before year-end rather than a sign the economy is breaking down. Nomura’s Charlie McElligott described it as “shooting the generals.”

Bonds and gold drew money as investors moved to safety. Treasury yields fell, especially for short-term notes, which dropped about 12 basis points, while the 10-year yield eased to around 4.9%. Traders also pushed back their expected timing for the Federal Reserve’s next rate increase to March. Gold rose about 1%, to above $4,000 an ounce. Bitcoin was savaged, down more than $4,000 on the day, hovering just below $76,000 late Thursday night.

Oil moved the other way, ending 3% to 4% higher after an 8% plunge on Wednesday, when the Democratic wave raised hopes for a diplomatic deal with Iran. Brent crude settled near $98 a barrel and U.S. crude near $90, as uncertainty over U.S.-Iran talks kept traders on edge.

For the week, the S&P 500 is down 3% and the NASDAQ 4.4%. The Dow has lost less than 0.5% since last Friday's close. The S&P 500 is still up 7.4% for the year, down from more than 11% just two weeks ago. NASDAQ and S&P futures were bouncing back early Friday, but all eyes are on the October jobs report this morning, which could decide whether Thursday was a one-day panic or the start of a deeper slide.

Stock futures were split heading toward the 8:30 am ET release of the BLS Non-farm Payroll data for October. Dow futures were down nearly 500 points, the S&P was holding around +15, and the NASDAQ futures sported a gain of close to 400 points.

Reaction to the October employment figures was muted. Stock futures barely budged, though all were trending marginally lower. There are obviously larger issues afoot.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 165,000 in October, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 165,000 in October, higher than the average monthly gain of 48,000 over the prior 12 months. In October, employment increased in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.

Employment in professional and business services increased by 70,000 in October, well above the average monthly gain of 15,000 over the prior 12 months. In October, employment continued to trend up in professional, scientific, and technical services (+33,000), in administrative and support and waste management and remediation services (+28,000), and in management of companies and enterprises (+9,000). Professional and business services has added 269,000 jobs since a recent low in October 2025.

Health care added 42,000 jobs in October, higher than the average monthly gain of 31,000 over the prior 12 months. In October, employment gains occurred in hospitals (+16,000), home health care services (+11,000), and outpatient care centers (+5,000).

In October, transportation and warehousing added 25,000 jobs, reflecting growth in couriers and messengers (+17,000) and air transportation (+4,000). Transportation and warehousing has added 104,000 jobs since a recent employment low in February, with couriers and messengers (+71,000) contributing most of the gain.

Manufacturing employment continued to trend up in October (+19,000) and has increased by 101,000 since a recent low in December 2025. In October, job gains occurred in computer and electronic product manufacturing (+7,000), machinery manufacturing (+4,000), and primary metal manufacturing (+4,000).

The strong employment data suggests that the economy is on solid ground, giving the Fed more than enough wiggle room to raise the federal funds rate by 25 or even 50 basis points at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting in their fight against inflation, prompting more worry than relief among investors.

On the heels of Thursday's across-the-board bloodbath, the market could use a bit of a breather. Prospects for a relief rally seem slim, given the changes in the political winds since Tuesday. Response to the election results were initially positive given Wednesday's rally, but turned downright nasty on Thursday. The abrupt turnaround was likely due to institutional money squeezing shorts on Wednesday and taking profits on Thursday. The stock market has been floating on clouds most of the year, now the rain is falling and the storm only seems to be beginning.

Days and weeks ahead should offer more perspective. The NASDAQ entered correction territory on Thursday, and the losses on the other major indices were sharp, signs that money was moving at an advanced clip away from the most popular - and profitable - sectors. Further rotation is likely as sentiment has turned somewhat sour.

Debt-strapped companies suffering stress in the form of declining margins, lower revenue and/or EPS short of expectations will be in focus for the remainder of the year and into the first half of 2027. Th sheer number of companies labeled "zombie" could exacerbate any downtrend. It will be instructive to see how full year and fourth quarter earnings stack up in January, but that's a story for another day. For now, markets are still digesting the election results and fleshing out investment strategies. To claim that the environment is challenging would be a measured understatement.

A frantic Friday trade may offer some glimpse of what's ahead for the rest of the month, but, with the holiday season fast approaching, there may just be enough positive vibes to keep the wheels from falling off completely.

At the Close, Thursday, November 5, 2026:
Dow: 51,523.06, -1,833.06 (-3.44%)
NASDAQ: 24,315.00, -1,421.52 (-5.52%)
S&P 500: 7,353.73, -334.89 (-4.36%)
NYSE Composite: 23,955.98, -730.15 (-2.96%)

President Trump Caused the Mess and He Can't Fix It; Democrats Gaining Huge Majority in House; Wall Street Mood Swing in Progress

Editor's note: Apologies once again for this morning's delayed posting. Money Daily continues beset with equipment issues. We're working on it. --FR

Wall Street put on some hefty gains after the Democrat sweep and some quick thinking gave traders the idea that having the government in gridlock and at each others' throats for two years might be good for business. That was Wednesday. Wall Street usually doesn't need much of a reason to rally, but, days and weeks ahead, once the Democrat agenda comes into focus, might offer a different perspective.

The Dow soared by more than three percent, led by gains in McDonald's (MCD) and Microsoft (MSFT), while the NASDAQ, even with a gain of nearly 1.5%, was the laggard, weighed down by concerns over data center delays and permitting that will almost certainly be a mainstay of Democrat policy.

Trump Media (DJT), parent of the president's Truth Social platform, took a vicious hit, losing nearly 25% on the day. The stock is trading at 4.50 per share, down more than 95% since its peak in February, 2022, so, most of the damage had already occurred prior to the Democrat landslide on Tuesday, much of it caused by the president himself, relentlessly "truthing" and prattling on about his plans and accomplishments, war-mongering and other inane topics.

Bottom line, while Mr. Trump is a two-time president and a rich man, his ego and hubris led eventually to his downfall. Tuesday's election results will render him the lamest of lame ducks, his power reduced to suggestions that the congress will overwhelmingly reject. He will be fortunate to last the remainder of his term. A generous contingent of Democrats are already lining up to chair investigative committees, looking into everything from Trump's crypto profiteering to insider trading in crude oil futures and his prosecution of the war with Iran. Subpoenas will be flying from the Capitol to the White House and the Pentagon. Trump's presidency will be damaged beyond repair.

For what it's worth, Wednesday's wild stock market ride expresses Wall Street's expectations that the congress will be so engaged in destroying the Trump presidency and his legacy that little attention will be paid to enacting new legislation. The president has already trotted out the "V" word, as in "VETO", to which the Democrats and some unhappy Republicans may ultimately respond with overrides. That is the hidden danger the country and Wall street faces: that the newly-empowered Democrats will use their power to whip up support for policies that may not be in the best public interest. After all, congress hasn't done much of anything to better the lives of everyday Americans for most of te past 50 years. There's scant hope that the incoming cadre of elected persons will be any different.

From an investment perspective, the government always is more or less a trifling matter. Wall Street might find itself more comfortable with old school attitudes, where things like profit, margins, and valuations actually matter more than the politics of the day. If that becomes the case, stocks might see multiple corrections in months ahead. After all, the ink on the ballots is barely dry. There's plenty of time for the governing body in Washington to make a complete mess of things. They've had plenty of practice, and, if recent events are a reliable guide, they're quite good at it.

Being even slightly cynical about the future of politics and American life doesn't require much effort. One only has to look back a few years to the foibles and failures of the Biden administration and the attendant congressional inaction to understand that Washington works largely for its own benefit, expanding its reach and power with an ever-increasing burden of rules, laws, regulations, taxes, and fees that undermine free enterprise and the American "can do" spirit. The degree to which the incoming Democrats manage to force their will on the people is yet undetermined, but it can be safely assumed that they will, the main question being the manner in which they do it. New legislation, much of it crafted as veto-proof, appealing to the softer Republicans in the House and Senate, will likely put limitations on free speech, AI build-out and data centers, business in general, and rights in particular. That's been the trend for the past few decades and the next congress probably won't stray far from that mandate.

As of Thursday morning, Democrats have already registered a huge majority of 240-147 in the House, with 48 seats still undecided, the votes continuing to be counted. In the Senate, the Democrat advantage is 54-44, with two seats remaining undecided. For all intents, the Republican party suffered a devastating, near-extinction-level blow on Tuesday and the resultant change in leadership, rhetoric, and attitude will not be pretty. While Wall Street may be enjoying a "gridlock" sugar high for the moment, looking past the immediate horizon is almost certain to be a bit more frightening. Little will be resolved over the remainder of 2026, but 2027 looks to be a challenge for survival and resilience in managing everyday life and investment portfolios.

Getting back to more mundane issues, the earnings parade continued on Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

After the close Wednesday, these companies reported third quarter earnings:
Coherent (COHR) - shares down 3% on EPS, revenue beat
ARM (ARM) - solid EPS and revenue beats, shares down 7% pre-market
Dutch Bros. (BROS) - EPS and revenue beats, shares down 11% on negative outlook
Qualcomm (QCOM) - EPS and revenue beats, shares down 11% on valuation concerns

Thursday, (before open):
Zillow (Z) - Top and bottom misses, shares down 6%
Snap (SNAP) - Revenue miss sends shares down 10%
Core Scientific (CORZ) - top, bottom beats, shares up 1%
Cigna (CI) - earnings call underway at 8:30 am, shares ahead by 3%
Molson Coors (TAP) - earnings call underway at 8:30 am, shares down 4%

Judging by stock futures, a mood swing seems to be underway approaching the opening bell Thursday. It will be interesting to see how long Wall Street's love affair with a Democrat majority and gridlock lasts. It's already turned negative on AI and data center buildout. It won't take long for that sentiment to spread to other sectors. The sugar rush may not survive the week, as Friday's Non-farm Payrolls for October will offer a different narrative, one that takes into account the possibility for another FOMC rate hike in about five weeks.

At the Close, Wednesday, November 4, 2026:
Dow: 53,356.48, +1,569.76 (+3.03%)
NASDAQ: 25,736.51, +364.50 (+1.44%)
S&P 500: 7,688.62, +119.70 (+1.58%)
NYSE Composite: 24,686.13, +379.08 (+1.56%)

Democrats Sweep to Power in Congress, Take House and Senate Majorities; What Comes Next?

Editor's Note: Apologies for missing Tuesday's (November 3) post of Money Daily. We suffered a breakdown of a key piece of equipment (range extender) which put us out of business for the day. It's now working, but we are actively pursuing a permanent replacement. This was probably the first post we've missed in 10 years. - Fearless Rick

Moments before the opening bell on Wednesday, stock futures were rocketing higher, with Dow futures up more than 1,100 points, the S&P ahead by 90, and the NASDAQ not quite as delighted with Tuesday's midterms results, up just about 100 points.

Tuesday's nationwide proxy referendum on President Trump's policies produced a coast-to-coast rout by the Democrats, repudiating Trump's tariffs, handling of the economy and inflation, and the war against Iran as the key issues.

The U.S. Senate completely flipped, with the makeup, when the new Senate is sworn in the first week of January, consisting of 54 Democrats and 44 Republicans, with two independents, setting the stage for possible impeachment hearings in the House, which will be controlled by the Democrats, currently holding a confirmed 228 seats, well more than the minimum for a majority (218). Democrats will control the executive branch in at least 28 states, with major victories in Georgia, Texas, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, Ohio, and elsewhere. Democrats lead in Kansas and Alaska, which, as of this writing, have not been officially declared.

The election results clearly demonstrate that the electorate across the country was unhappy with Republican leadership and voted for a change. While Democrats may or may not remedy the current ills, the evidence points to massive dissatisfaction with Trump's agenda and a Republican-controlled congress acting as lapdogs to the president, doing little to nothing to curb his extreme policies.

Trump has already made the claim that he and his radical policies were not the deciding factor in the "blue wave" that occurred on Tuesday, claiming that had he been on the ballot, Republicans would have won in a landslide. Sorry, but he's dead wrong on that note. It was exactly his policies that produced a Democrat landslide, and, as usual, the once-populist president turned abject loser refuses to accept reality.

This is the result when a president fails to keep his campaign promises. In the run-up to his 2024 electoral victory, Trump promised lower inflation, lower gas prices, cutting government spending, closing the borders, removal of illegal immigrants, release of the Epstein files, no new wars, and an end to the war in Ukraine. On nearly all of those issues, he's failed miserably. Only on closing the borders and deportation of illegals has he been somewhat true to his word. While the borders have been almost completely closed to foreigners, his ICE squads have not deported nearly the numbers Trump promised on the campaign trail. Roughly just ove a million illegals have been deported and estimates are that anywhere from 300,000 to 1.5 million illegals have "self-deported,", i.e., left on their own will. There are still between 20 and 30 million illegal immigrants in the United States, so ICE, though they've managed to deport many known criminals and gang members, has barely scratched the surface.

The Ukraine conflict has dragged on for the nearly two years of Trump's presidency with no end in sight. Trump, with prodding by Israel, started a conflict with Iran that has caused a major disruption in oil, natural gas, and other critical elements in the energy and agriculture sectors, raised crude oil prices above $100/barrel worldwide and gas at the pump remains at a national average above $4.00/gallon. Inflation has not been tamed. Food prices have increased during Trump's presidency and he's done nothing to help consumers make ends meet. Affordability in house remains a key issue. Most Americans are unable to purchase an existing or new home because prices are at extremes and interest rates are on the rise.

On spending, the president promoted and approved a fiscal year 2025 deficit of about $1.85 trillion, equal to roughly 6.3% of GDP, with his “One Big, Beautiful Bill" in 2025, which extended the overspending by congress at record levels. For the U.S. government fiscal year 2026, when the final figures are computed (ended September 30, 2026), the deficit will be roughly another $1.8 trillion. The president's highly-touted DOGE initiative, headed by Elon Musk, turned into a grand fiasco, saving taxpayers less than $20 billion and resulting in a negligible reduction in the federal workforce.

Perhaps the most overlooked and under-reported issue on the minds of voters were the Epstein files, some of which were revealed, mostly with heavy redactions, and the entire investigation has gone nowhere and has been abandoned. Trump himself is identified repeatedly in the Epstein files. A New York Times review found that Trump is mentioned more than 38,000 times in the redacted Epstein-related files released publicly by the Justice Department as of early 2026, with his name appearing in over 5,300 individual documents examined by the newspaper. This alone, and Trump's stone-walling on the issue, was enough to keep many MAGA loyalists away from the polls or switch their votes to Democrat candidates. The hubris and dishonesty displayed by President Trump regarding the Epstein files and other dodgy practices - linking his tweets or "Truths" to insder trading on oil futures and in the stock market - were, beneath the surface, a key element of Tuesday's tsunami for the blue team.

What happens next in the early going will be a great deal of finger-pointing over who was responsible for the backlash against Republicans and most fingers will point directly at President Trump, and that's just on the Republican side, which faces the unpleasant prospect of being in the minority for the next two years and possibly longer. Democrats now have new faces that could end up as presidential candidates in 2028. Forget the old names of Kamala Harris or California Governor Gavin Newsom. Rising stars like Georgia Senator John Ossoff or North Carolina's Roy Cooper will be getting more attention as the presidential race evolves. Republicans are stuck with unattractive choices between Marco Rubio and the distant Vice President, J.D. Vance.

In order to reclaim the White House, Trump will need to actually o work for the American people by cutting spending, ending the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, and getting inflation under control control, though he’s unlikely to initiate action on those issues, having instead to be pushed to make the right decisions with impeachment hanging over his head, a tactic the Democrats will no doubt use as a strong negotiating tool to tone down White House policies and Executive Orders.

As far as Wall Street is concerned, Tuesday's election landslide by Democrats puts politics on a back burner, for now, with the consensus understanding that the federal government will be gridlocked for at least the next two years. Such a condition allows businesses to plan and operate without much thought towards government regulations, tax changes, and new legislation. Gridlock in Washington is generally seen as a panacea for big business, allowing executives to make decisions devoid of political influence, though it may not be so cut and dry, as Democrats may have enough votes from their own party and defectors from the other side to override presidential vetos. In that regard, there may not be much in the way of a deadlocked government, but a runaway, chaotic rush by Democrats to overturn Trump's policies and replace them with their own, whatever those might turn out to be.

One possible case is a lame duck president with little power to pursue the agendas he's built up during the first two years of his term in office, though the rhetoric from the Democrats seems hardly capable of constraining themselves from complete overthrow of the status quo. Their huge victory on Tuesday may be seen as a mandate to throw the current government overboard, lean toward impeachment or at least the threat of it and begin to enact legislation that reverses Trump-inspired executive orders and policies.

It remains to be seen to what extent Democrats will go to ensure their victory is not wasted. The media will be in a frenzy from now until the new congress is sworn in in January, 2027, trying to flesh out details of the new regime's plans. It will be sometime in the first quarter of next year before most of what's to come will be realized and the effects will last through the next few years. There is a distinct possibility that tax hikes on individuals and corporations and more stringent regulations on businesses will be part of a new package put together by Democrat leadership. What they'll probably be saying is that individual rights will be at the forefront of their agenda, but the reality is likely to be less so. Democrats will likely push to end the wars, but that's going to be a hard sell in many quarters. At best, Americans can hope that the Democrats won't screw things up any more than the Republicans already have.

The country is going to be beset with a uni-party that will do little to cut spending and lower the deficit, replace aging infrastructure or promote the general welfare of the population. In other words, change will not be directed at the most pressing issues because they're generally unfixable at this point. Whether the country is led by Democrats or Republicans matters little. They all sleep in the same bed of special interests and the people be damned.

The best outcome from this for President Trump is that he doesn't have to come up with the $5,000 he promised in the event of a Republican win. Being that it wouldn't be his money doled out, it's likely he simply didn't care.

For now, until the end of the year, it may be safe to dabble in stocks, but there certainly seems to be a wheelbarrow full of problems ahead and neither party is likely to fix the broken system.

At the Close, Tuesday, November 3, 2026:
Dow: 51,786.72, -197.26 (-0.38%)
NASDAQ: 25,372.01, +207.65 (+0.83%)
S&P 500: 7,568.92, +27.52 (+0.36%)
NYSE Composite: 24,307.04, -65.03 (-0.27%)