Nvidia Results Set Up Mini Tech Rally; Markets Remain in Doldrums Awaiting Warsh Speech at Jackson Hole Friday; Gold, Silver Lower After Hitting Resistance

While the world awaits Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday, Nvidia delivered another solid earnings report which appears to be fueling a tech rally as the opening bell approaches Thursday morning.

Investors have sent Nvidia (NVDA) shares 13% higher in pre-market trading, based on the company's reported second quarter results and strong forward guidance. The chip-maker reported beats on the top and bottom lines for the quarter and looks forward to a robust second half of 2026. Investors in the tech/AI rollout appear eager to put their money to work with Nvidia. Since hitting an all-time high of 235.74 on May 14th, the stock has languished, dropping as low as 190 in late July. It finished Wednesday's session at 209.66, and may appear to be a bargain to some, despite a PE ratio above 30.

The earnings report comes at a moment that is conflicted, with Warsh's speech on Friday and continuing geo-political issues clouding the horizon in the Middle East and Ukraine. Were it not for the timing, Nvidia may have been poised for a breakout to new highs, and that still could be the case, though not likely today.

Reported Wednesday morning, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose 3.3% in July on a "core" basis, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. That was in line with expectations and at the same level as June. Month over month, prices rose 0.2%, also in line with expectations and up from 0.1% in June.

The numbers comprising the PCE have the Fed somewhat on edge, with inflation still running fairly hot, though analysts have noted that the rate of change on inflation is slowing. If that proves to be a longer term trend and not just a one-off fluctuation, the Fed would have little reason to raise rates to slow the inflation monster that has plagued the U.S. economy since 2020.

Whatever the case, there's reason to believe that Warsh will reveal any inkling of the Fed's preferred direction on rates. He's been tight-lipped from the start of his chairmanship a few months ago and there appears to be no reason that he would stray from his established style.

The assembled economists, speculators, and financial players at Jackson Hole may come away with little more than party favors and souvenirs come Friday. Warsh isn't going to tip his hand, so the market will have to rely on good old momentum and FOMO for the time being.

There's not a lot to go on other than the continuation of the tech bubble rally, and that comes with a healthy dose of skepticism.

Approaching the open, stock futures are a mixed bag, with NASDAQ futures up 260; S&P futures up 25 points and Dow futures down 80.

Gold and silver continue to retreat from recent highs, silver finding resistance at $69/ounce and gold stopping out just above $4,600. For now, it appears that even the metals markets are on hold in front of the Warsh address.

Interest rates have mellowed since Scott Bessent's announcement that Treasury would buy back more of its issuance at a faster rate. Ten-year notes are yielding 4.66% and 30-year bond yields are holding around 5.19%.

So far, the week hasn't produced much excitement other than the Nvidia results, but, with August coming to a close and congress due back in session after Labor Day, there's sure to be more interest after the holiday, implying that next week might also be a little short on thrills.

At the Close, Wednesday, August 26, 2026:
Dow: 53,463.88, -113.52 (-0.21%)
NASDAQ: 26,130.20, -21.10 (-0.08%)
S&P 500: 7,675.70, -1.58 (-0.02%)
NYSE Composite: 24,742.07, -26.58 (-0.11%)

Markets Stalled in Anticipation of Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech Friday; Nvidia Cues Up Earnings Report After the Bell; Gold, Silver Test Resistance

If it seems as if everything is on hold until Friday's Jackson Hole keynote address by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh (10:00 am ET), it's probably because it is.

The Chairman's speech at the annual Symposium in Wyoming s normally a seminal event at which movers and shakers in the financial world hope to glean some tidbits of knowledge about the general economic condition of the world and the U.S. in particular and how the Federal Reserve plans to respond with policy.

While that may not be exactly the case with the tight-lipped Warsh, there is still great anticipation concerning his remarks, given the unstable conditions that exist around the world today. The Chairman is not likely to give away any secrets, but discerning participants believe what he has to say will have a large impact on shaping the policies of the Federal Reserve for the coming six to 18 months.

That's important because if he leans toward fighting inflation by tightening or towards keeping the economy running smoothly by keeping policy loose, makes all the difference in the world. More nuanced might be his opinions on energy resources, employment, AI, and a host of other issues, from geo-politics to domestic matters, and everything in between.

There's no doubt that Warsh's speech will be important, but maybe markets are overdoing it. The days of an almighty Fed, by which a mere utterance or small change in a policy statement might send markets reeling or soaring, are over. Warsh has made that clear in his first two press conferences. There will be no tipping off, no forward guidance, and no front-running based on his remarks. The best one can hope for is a little bit of insight into which way the Fed is leaning. Given that, investors may want to get on with their usual business and gauge markets for what they are.

In those terms, stocks are generally trading at nose-bleed levels, which has become standard practice since the GFC in 2008-09. The perception that the markets are undergirded by various entities ranging from the PPT (President's Working Group on Financial Markets, or, Plunge Protection Team), and more recently the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), which does precisely what the name implies, intervenes in financial markets to keep everything nce and tidy, without one currency or another going ballistic or imploding. The ESF was a primary mover in the recent intervention on the Japanese yen. Funds were deloyed and a swap agreement devised to keep the yen from further devaluation without forcing the BoJ to sell U.S. treasuries.

The mechanisms and others allow for the markets to function without obvious guardrails and also subvert the true meaning of "free" or "open" markets. Today's stock and bond markets are highly orchestrated. Nobody wants a crash, a meltdown, or even a correction, though these same entities see nothing at all wrong with keeping stocks at extremes or lowering interest rates to nearly zero, as was the case through most of the 2010s and beyond.

Financial journalists have bought into the idea that Warsh's Jackson Hole speech is going to set the tone for markets. Good for them. That kind of propaganda is good for ratings and advertising rates, or so it would appear. Those with a more adult attitude (and maybe a little skeptical as well) about money, finance, and investing, will want to look beyond speeches and rhetoric and focus on actual facts, fundamentals, and due diligence. That's what makes markets.

Given the current landscape, markets are going to be influenced more by the politics of the midterm elections and the price of gas at the pump than any mouthing by Fed officials. Policies of the Federal Reserve may be more deterministic than generally understood. They are reactive rather than proactive. Action "on the ground", so to speak, has more to do with day-to-day swings in prices and attitudes than any bellowing from ivory towers.

Approaching Wednesday's opening bell, markets remain subdued and under the influence of the upcoming "big talk." Stock futures are hanging slightly lower; precious metals have slipped below resistance points, with gold just above $4,600 and silver steadying around $68 per troy ounce. WTI crude oil has dropped for $88 to around $80 per barrel over the last few days on more rumors, wishful thinking, and innuendo about a resolution between the U.S., it's Arab partners and Iran.

Today's waiting game involves not just Jackson Hole, but Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, which reports after the close.

Somewhere on a veranda in the clouds, Paul Volker, Adam Smith, and King Midas are having cigars, brandy, and a good laugh.

At the Close, Tuesday, August 25, 2026:
Dow: 53,577.40, +160.24 (+0.30%)
NASDAQ: 26,151.30, +171.11 (+0.66%)
S&P 500: 7,677.28, +24.42 (+0.32%)
NYSE Composite: 24,768.65, +42.01 (+0.17%)

Bessent Launches Economic D-Day; Markets Moan; Dick's Sporting Goods Falling to 2 1/2-Year Lows; Gold, Silver Lower; Crude Oil Remains Bid

OK, let's just destroy Iran economically, since the mighty United States military couldn't bomb those savage Persians into submission.

That is the clear message that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been sounding off about for the past few weeks and days, and on Monday, he announced it in public at a well-rehearsed press conference, telling U.S. allies and enemies alike that if they aid the Iranians in any way, there will be hell to pay in the form of sanctions and elimination from the U.S. banking system, SWIFT, and probably more pain to come, maybe forty lashes or something along the lines of pirating behavior.

The Iranians are not exactly quaking in their boots. In fact, a number of their leaders were openly defiant, claiming that if harm comes to their economic partners, there would be military retaliation against U.S. interests.

China made no bones about it, expressing their right to do business with whomever they please. Both President Trump and Secretary Bessent backed away from antagonizing the largest U.S. trading partner. Apparently, sanctions are only for countries that aren't already doing business with the U.S.

So, the drama continues. The Strait of Hormuz remans closed. Over at the COMEX, oil futures are being played like a concertina, and Wall Street didn't seem to like the idea very much, but, having the memory of a gnat, they'll be back to pushing equity prices higher, as Tuesday morning's stock futures are suggesting.

Approaching the opening bell, Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) isn't feeling very sporty after releasing second quarter results that oddly resembled WNBA attendance figures, missing on the top and bottom, sending out bad vibes with lowered guidance, and generally grieving about the state of the not-so-sporty Americans that find their prices just a little too high, even with back-to-school season in full swing.

With 30 minutes until the opening bell, Dick's stock is down some 18 percent. about to crash down to a level not seen since January, 2024.

The rest of the market seems to want to ignore the idea that consumers are tapped out and the price of gas at the pump is curtailing discretionary purchases in a big way. High inflation and high costs of just getting by can produce demand destruction, and Dick's, along with other retailers that have recently reported, such as Walmart, Target, an Lowe's, are feeling the pinch.

Heading toward the open, stock futures are higher, with Dow futures up 236, NASDAQ futures up 233, and S&P futures ahead by 29 points.

Gold and silver are taking a break from their relentless three-week-long rally. It was only a matter of time before the riggers and suppressors at the COMEX and LBMA would step in and short the metals. Apparently, their efforts are underway. Brent and WTI crude remain stubbornly at elevated levels. It's not so easy to keep a lid on prices when there's almost no crude flowing through the Persian Gulf.

Meanwhile, in Moscow and Beijing, precious metals carry a premium over Western quoted prices and they look forward to the United States kicking a few more countries off the SWIFT system. The BRICS countries welcome such developments.

At the Close, Monday, August 24, 2026:
Dow: 53,417.16, +140.16 (+0.26%)
NASDAQ: 25,980.19, -200.31 (-0.77%)
S&P 500: 7,652.86, -21.51 (-0.28%)
NYSE Composite: 24,726.64, -2.03 (-0.01%)

WEEKEND WRAP: The Week Scott Bessent Lost Control of Credit; Gold, Silver Respond with Massive Gains; Stocks Slump; Gas at the Pump Higher

The week just past may have been the most consequential of the year.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's Wednesday announcement that his department would commence repurchasing its own bonds in larger amounts with greater frequency - a decision made to help tamp down rising yields - set off a firestorm in the debt markets and sent precious metals soaring.

Coming just a day after total U.S. broke through $40 trillion, Bessent's maneuver and his yen swap line creation three weeks ago, set an unruly tone in treasuries and other major funding sources. With international appetite for treasuries waning and the AI infrastructure funding crowding out treasuries, yields on 10-year notes and 30-year bonds had reached crisis levels, the yield on the 30-year at a 19-year high, a far cry from the QE experiments of Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen, whose efforts toward ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) decimated the value of the dollar and eventually resulted in the highest inflation since the 1970s.

Bessent alone isn't going to be able to reverse an already unstable course for the treasury market. Rather than instill a feeling that he is helping to stabilize the bond market, his actions reek of fear and panic, a signal the markets are sure to take very seriously. By the end of the week, yield on 30-year bonds had fallen from a high of 5.34% to 5.27%, but the 10-year failed to get the memo, dropping on Wednesday's announcement only to head right back up, Friday's closeout figure standing at 4.74%.

In addition to Bessent's ham-handed attempt at easing an out-of-control situation, conditions in the ongoing Mideast conflict remained unresolved, with the United States on its back foot, still threatening economic or military destruction of Iran while the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz remained largely cut off. With the Yemeni Houthis wresting control of Red Sea transit, the balance of power in the region has shifted in favor of Iran and Oman, with Arab countries mulling prospects of decoupling with the United States.

Since the U.S. has failed to protect the Gulf states, the Saudis, Kuwaitis, and other countries like the UAE and Qatar are not exactly what one might call reliable allies in the region. These conditions sent Brent and WTI crude futures to their highest levels in nearly a month, with prospects for further gains now heavily dependent on resolution to the closing of international choke-points. The Strait of Hormuz being the most important passageway for oil and other important industrial commodities such as sulfur and helium.

These developments spilled over into markets ina very big way and are also threatening to have lasting effects on the lives of ordinary citizens in the U.S. and Europe especially.

The biggest laughs of the week came from Secretary Bessent and President Trump, both of who insisted that the U.S. could grow its way oout of debt.

Bessent, Thursday, on CNBC: “…There’s nothing magic about the $40 trillion number. And we can grow our way out of that. So, but what we do want to signal is, I think that there’s been a lot of misinformation in terms of what’s going on with the deficit, what’s going on with the deficit to GDP.”

Trump, Wednesday, at the White House: “We could have GDP of 10, 12, 15 times if they just leave us alone. Let interest rates go down. It’s a very unfair system. They should drop interest rates because it means we have a strong country and it’s all based on credit, meaning good credit, and we have the best credit and we’d pay off the debt very easily, very quickly.”

$40 trillion, the American public and the markets said, "hold my beer."

For more illuminating information on Bessent's gambit and the Trump "put", refer to the excellent weekly commentary by Doug Nolan at his Credit Bubble Bulletin. Hat tip to Nolan for coining the term, “Terminal Phase Excess”. Brilliant and poignant.

Stocks

It was a pretty busy, and scary, week for stocks, with all of the major indices losing ground. The NASDAQ was the big loser, falling more than two percent. The S&P and Dow were down 1.43% and 0.85% respectively. Stocks remain near all-time highs, with plenty of liquidity in the market, though there are ominous signs of interdiction through political means to keep the stock market cruising along until the midterms.

That line of thinking encourages profit-taking, but not everybody is convinced that the stock market will correct or take a deep dive. Stocks are vulnerable to a variety of shocks and September and October are traditionally not encouraging. Most investors are still of the passive variety, predisposed ot ride the wave in 401k accounts, IRAs or other long-term portfolios.

While the chances for a crash are roughly 40:60 in favor of stocks remaining buoyant, there's no tellin gwhat will come of the larger credit markets. Bankruptcies, foreclosures, and auto repossessions are all on the rise.

Earnings season is just about over, though a number of important, mostly retail names will be reporting in the week ahead.

Monday: (before open) Napco (NSSC); (after close) PicPay (PICS)

Tuesday: (before open) Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), ScotiaBank (BNS), SelectQuote (SLQT); (after close) Intuit (INTU), Box (BOX), Electromed (ELMD), Zoom (ZM), Semtech (SMTC)

Wednesday: (before open) Bath & Body Works (BBWI), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Kohl's (KSS), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), J.M. Smucker (SJM); (after close) Nvidia (NVDA), Synopsis (SNPS), Crowdstrike (CRWD), SalesForce (CRM)

Thursday: (before open) Dollar General (DG), DollarTree (DLTR), Best Buy (BBY), Burlington (BURL), TD Bank (TD), CIBC (CM), Hormal Foods (HRL); (after close) Autodesk (ADSK), Workday (WDAY), Gap Inc. (GAP), Affirm (AFRM, Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Marvell (MRVL)

Looking ahead to the economic calendar, Tuesday brings forward the Case-Shiller monthly national home price index, New Home Sales for July and the Richmond Fed. Wednesday offers the PCE monthly and year-over-year index, durable goods orders and the second estimate of 2nd quarter GDP (initial estimate was 1.5%). Thursday reveals retail and wholesale inventories, and initial and continuing weekly jobless claims.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
07/17/2026	3.73	3.75	3.80	3.85	3.91	3.96	4.01
07/24/2026	3.80	3.88	3.95	3.96	4.04	4.08	4.14
07/31/2026	3.78	3.80	3.85	3.83	3.92	3.98	4.08
08/07/2026	3.79	3.79	3.83	3.87	3.89	3.96	4.01
08/14/2026	3.79	3.80	3.81	3.86	3.88	3.95	3.98
08/21/2026	3.80	3.77	3.80	3.88	3.90	3.95	4.03

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
07/17/2026	4.18	4.21	4.28	4.40	4.55	5.07	5.06
07/24/2026	4.33	4.36	4.43	4.55	4.69	5.18	5.16
07/31/2026	4.28	4.34	4.45	4.59	4.75	5.28	5.27
08/07/2026	4.19	4.25	4.35	4.49	4.65	5.20	5.19
08/14/2026	4.17	4.24	4.36	4.51	4.68	5.25	5.25
08/21/2026	4.24	4.31	4.43	4.57	4.74	5.25	5.27

Bessent's parlay this week moved markets, though maybe not in ways he anticipated. While the 30-year yield was tempered, yield on the 10-year - which is ultimately the benchmark - dropped and quickly recovered, as if nothing had happened.

Bessent is facing a squeeze in high quality buyers for U.S. debt. With more and more money directed toward funding the AI buildout and foreign demand drooping, he resorted to somewhat of an emergency tactic, buying back the Treasury's own issuance. It reeks of desperation and can be compared to this twisted logic: buying back your car loan (maybe at a discount), receiving the flow of monthly payments to pay off the loan that still exists. It kind of buys time, but at the end of the day - or the funding period - you end up short of funds and needing to borrow even more. It's not a long-term strategy, but rather an election punt. The midterms are coming and there's little Republicans fear mroe than a Democrat-led Senate and/or House, making deal-marking Trump the lamest of lame ducks.

Bessent's maneuver isn't going to save the system from $40 trillion in debt and interest payments that will push north of $1.5 trillion in fiscal 2027 with an annual deficit estimated to be somewhere between $2 and $3 trillion, a wide range because nobody has a handle on spending.

Japanese 10-year yields traded Tuesday at the highest levels (2.95%) since 1996, so Bessent's swap lines for Japan aren't actually working out so well either. He may be thought to be one of the most innovative and bright Treasury chiefs of all time, but so far, his record has been abysmal. Big hat, no cattle, as they say in Texas.

The high spreads on 2s-10s and full spectrum remained at highs for the year, signaling that Bessent's monkey wrench has little to no grip. Blowing out these spreads risks general havoc in the world's largest funding market.

Having some sectors (AI infrastructure) growing at the expense of others (small business, consumer-facing industries, manufacturing), including the treasury complex, makes Bessent appear weak and possibly at odds with Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh. Until the elections in November, inflation be damned. More robust money flows are necessary to keep the stock market bubbling along as if the funding market is a derivate of it when the exact opposite is true.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37
7/24: +36
7/31: +47
8/7: +46
8/14: +51
8/21: +50

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133
7/24: +136
7/31: +149
8/7: +140
8/14: +146
8/21: +147

Oil/Gas

The situation in the Middle East has heated up again with Houthis taking Red Sea shipping to a halt and Iran and Oman working out details on traffic patterns in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, without even a reach-around to U.S. interests. Increasingly sidelined in the Middle East, the U.S. failure in the Gulf region threatens to disrupt global supply chains to breaking points. Already, strategic petroleum reserves in most developed countries have been drained to emergency levels just to keep the price of crude from catapulting past $100/barrel. WTI crude closed out the week at a four week high, $88.15, with Brent nearby ($89.69).

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.04 last week and $4.06 this week, the highest Sunday price in a month. Peace prospects in the Middle East are nil, pushing higher gas prices, with the unstable situation at the Strait of Hormuz keeping prices elevated and consumers annoyed.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.60 (+0.04)
Washington: $5.24 (+0.07)
Indiana: $3.51 (lowest) (-0.08)
Oklahoma: $3.79 (+0.11)
Louisiana: $3.68 (+0.16)
Mississippi: $3.63 (+0.05)
Florida: $3.82 (-0.01)
Illinois: $4.37 (+0.07)
Pennsylvania: $4.16 (+0.09)
New York: $4.12 (+0.02)
Maryland: $3.99 (+0.08)
Michigan: $4.18 (-0.08)
Texas: $3.59 (-0.04)
Georgia: $3.78 (+0.01)

On Sunday, April 23rd, there are twenty-five (25) states with average prices at or above $4.00, with twenty-three (23) below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.44) and Alaska ($4.79), with two above $5 (California and Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past 12 weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging below $4.00 ($3.59-3.79) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region second, prices ranging from $3.84 to $3.98. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, and Illinois in the Midwest. Prices in the Northeast rose slightly thi week, with most states averaging above $4.00.

Rising gas prices are again becoming an issue for cash-strapped small businesses and consumers. High gas prices squeezes out everything else in terms of demand. With more states above $4.00 a gallon, the U.S. could very well see demand destruction and if demand isn't there, the only resolution is lowering prices. Food and energy remaining high strips out demand and could cause unwelcome circumstances in the U.S. market.

The concern among many experts in the field is refining capacity, especially diesel and jet fuel, as those prices have ramped up to record levels. Consumers use gasoline, but businesses rely on diesel, especially for long-haul commerce.

Bitcoin

This week: $77,297.70
Last week: $63,223.08
2 weeks ago: $65,185.72
6 months ago: $63,326.75
One year ago: $114,920.50
Five years ago: $48,915.17

Bitcoin and other cryptos got a wake up call, courtesy of Treasury Secretary Bessent's announcement of the treasury buying back more long-dated notes and bonds at a faster rate. There's a belief among crypto warriors that an imminent currency crash would automatically make bitcoin the big winner. Oddly enough, bitcoin is quoted in dollars. When bitcoin is quoted in bitcoins, maybe then it will deliver. Until that time, skeptics remain on the sidelines of the trade of the century.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 66.84; last week: 67.64

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 7/24: $4,055.70
Gold price 7/31: $4,098.60
Gold price 8/7: $4,401.30
Gold price 8/14: $4,432.00
Gold price 7/17: $4,661.60

Silver price 7/24: $58.49
Silver price 7/31: $57.78
Silver price 8/7: $63.80
Silver price 8/14: $64.82
Silver price 8/21: $69.01

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 7/24: $4,052.00
Gold 7/31: $4,042.00
Gold 8/7: $4,340.72
Gold 8/14: $4,375.15
Gold 8/21: $4,609.49

Silver 7/24: $58.19
Silver: 7/31: $57.55
Silver 8/7: $63.56
Silver 8/14: $64.68
Silver 8/21: $68.96

Gold and silver advanced for a fourth straight week, and the rally shows few signs of slowing, even in the face of high yields on long-dated treasuries. Sovereign wealth funds and central banks continue to pour into gold, now the #1 Tier-1 holding of central banks around the world, surpassing treasuries roughly a year ago, and that trend continues.

Keeping an eye on the gold:silver ratio (GSR) that continues to decline in silver's favor, the culmination of the long bull market in precious metals may send the ratio back to levels seen at the peaks for both metals, in the mid-40s, which means, if gold strikes a new high of $6,000 (a distinct possibility given current conditions) within the next 6-12 months, silver would ramp to its own all-time high of 133, or beyond.

Longer term, sending the GSR back to traditional levels of 20:1, 16:1, or even 12:1 (the U.S. standard in the constitutional era), silver's price would reflect its return as a monetary metal, a position it has claimed for thousands of years. It's only been since the mid-1900s that silver was no longer regarded as money. The United States did away with silver coinage in 1964, melted down most of the retired coins, but there still remains a robust market for "junk" 90% silver. The consideration of returning to a bi-metallic standard is no longer seen as impossible. India, Russia, and China both value silver with much more respect than their Western counterparts, and the Asian century is unfolding rapidly. These powerhouse countries are beginning to dominate trade in precious metals, the suppressive efforts of the LBMA and COMEX soon to be relegated to secondary positions as price takers, not price makers.

There's already a growing premium in Shanghai as compared to COMEX or spot pricing. Friday's reading for an ouce of silver at the SGE (Shanghai Gold Exchange) was $78.48. For an ounce of gold, the premium is smaller, about $10 higher than spot.

Over the past 30 days, gold is up 11.51%, with silver gaining a whopping 17.74% (goldprice.org). With the U.S. dollar losing value and purchasing power at an accelerating rate, many experts in the field are expecting new highs before the end of 2026.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	70.00	85.02	77.42	77.68
1 oz silver bar:	70.00	85.05	77.43	77.20
1 oz gold coin:	4778.90	4992.62	4865.71	4844.03
1 oz gold bar:	4780.18	4845.21	4814.14	4804.29

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) continued its advance for a fourth straight week, closing out at $77.43, an upside move of $1.90 per troy ounce from the August 16 price of $75.53.

WEEKEND WRAP

Even with Friday's dead-cat bounce, stocks still finished the week deep in red ink. The treasury complex is going to become the biggest story of the year if rates continue to rise. Overshadowed by the energy crunch perhaps, because more people understand the implications of $4.00 gas than a 5.35% 30-year bond, buckling in credit markets threatens everything, everywhere, from government funding to credit cards to commercial and auto loans.

In case of a credit seizure, stock up on essentials, as in fuel, food, water, and protection.

At the Close, Friday, August 21, 2026:
Dow: 53,277.01, +517.80 (+0.98%)
NASDAQ: 26,180.46, +113.29 (+0.43%)
S&P 500: 7,674.37, +33.21 (+0.43%)
NYSE Composite: 24,728.67, +180.41 (+0.73%)

For the Week:
Dow: -455.40 (-0.85%)
NASDAQ: -548.71 (-2.05%)
S&P 500: -11.39 (-1.43%)
NYSE Composite: -93.01 (-0.37%)
Dow Transports: -222.13 (-1.02%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Treasury Buyback Plan Has Rattled Markets; Gold, Silver Rallies Continue; Stocks Approaching Down Week as U.S. Debt Exceeds $40 Trillion

$40,047,425,768,420.22

That is the actual number posted by the U.S. government on Tuesday, August 18, 2026.

U.S. government debt hit $40 trillion on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. On Monday, the 17th, the government added some $53 billion and then lopped another $60 billion on top of that on Tuesday. $113 billion dollars in just two days!

Where did the money go? Who knows. The U.S. government is so vast, so poorly managed, and so free-spending with money it doesn't have that it might take a team of forensic economists a week to figure it out. Needless to say, it's been spent, it's gone, and it's likely never to be repaid. The government’s tally for interest costs so far for 2026 is $1.37 trillion - a 20% increase on the same period a year before.

Seriously, who in their right mind would lend any money to any entity that has a track record such as the U.S. government? They pay back their debts, for sure, but then borrow more to finance the money they just spent and plan on spending in the immediate future. At some point, lenders are going to call in their tickets and demand payment or simply stop lending. Already, many foreign governments have stopped buying U.S. debt. Many of them are selling it, some of it certainly at a loss. 30-year bonds bought during the ZIRP (sero interest rate policy) period have become nearly worthless in just 10-15 years. 30-year bonds between 2010 and 2020 were/are paying 2-4 percent when current rates are above five percent. Nobody will buy them at par, or even close. They don't keep pace with inflation. Those bonds are dead money. If you hold them, you lose to inflation. If you sell them, you lose money on the principal. Ouch!

The reckoning, long overdue, has commenced. Nobody wants to finance the U.S. government, and for good reason... many good reasons. The U.S. government starts wars and seldom finishes them. They U.S. government reneges on most of its treaty obligations. They steal from other countries, confiscate funds, sanction people and countries they don't like and are generally a pain in the ass to the rest of the world. Who needs them?

Well, retirees need them. Social Security recipients, government pensioners, disability survivors and many others all rely on regular payments from the U.S. government to maintain their lifestyle. Stop paying these people and the whole financial structure of the United States collapses.

Or does it?

If, all of a sudden, the U.S. government declared bankruptcy and stopped paying its millions of beneficiaries, stopped sending out SNAP payments (food stamps) and other welfare-related stipends, what really would happen? Would everybody, all of a sudden, be broke, unable to pay their mortgages, rent, utility bills, feed themselves and their families?

Probably not. There would be a reset. The value of the U.S. dollar wouold fall dramatically within weeks, if not days. The stock market would crash. The biggest winners would be those with savings in assets outside the U.S. financial system, like gold, silver, other tangible assets, like high quality stocks, certain real estate holdings, art. Naturally, real estate, stocks, and art would take a hit in U.S. dollar terms. Gold and silver, however, would skyrocket to unimaginable levels. An ounce of gold might be worth $30,000, and it wasn't the gold that appreciated in value, it was the dollar that collapsed causing gold to be much more valuable in dollar terms.

How would people respond?

Though it's highly unlikely that the U.S. government would just one day up and declare bankruptcy and cancel all of their obligations, the politics would generally trend towards austerity in terms of cutting benefits rather than completely curtailing them. People at the high income end of the Social Security spectrum would likely face the most severe cuts. High-income individuals might see SS benefits slashed by 25-40%, the reasoning being that these people are not dependent on their retirement benefits and have enough in personal assets to maintain their lifestyles. Mid-range beneficiaries might experience cuts of 10-15%. The bottom tier may see no cuts at all.

In the end, it becomes an argument of relativity. The rich would still be rich, though not as rich as they thought, the poor still poor, and the middle a little less fortunate than they thought. Life would go on, but in the business world, jobs would be cut, possibly drastically. Some businesses might disappear altogether. Unemployment would be very high and there would be a great deal of economic suffering, some of it due to bad personal choices, some due to government mismanagement, some due to business incompetence.

Life in America, in the face of a financial catastrophe, would experience extreme changes, mostly in groups defined as middle class. As it already stands, there are more than enough people on the fringes, or homeless, or about to be destitute. Many Americans are already at the edge of survival. An economic crisis would throw them over the edge.

Crime, mostly in the form of theft, fraud, and petty offenses, would rise. Crackpots and false prophets would emerge. Under the most extreme conditions, inner cities would experience riots, looting, and general choas from a poor population with nothing to live for and nothing to lose.

As it was during the Great Depression of the 1930s, not everybody would suffer. Many people, especially those with needed skills and positive attitudes, would do well, even prosper. The aim for most people would be to live within one's means and take necessary steps to preserve whatever lifestyle would be available, keep their families fed and safe, and try to carry on as well as possible.

Lots of people, meaning millions, would not be able to adjust. They would suffer not just economic pain, but health issues and possibly death. Suicide would become an option for planty of people.

Overall, it's not a pretty picture, but one which Americans should consider as possible, because all signs are now pointing to a breaking point, one in which the government is unable to sustain itself without even more excessive borrowing, and, without funding, it would lose control over the general public. Perhaps the best outcome from an economic collapse would be a reordering of priorities and a reshuffling of the political class. That may be about as far-fetched as one can imagine, seeing hordes of politicians afraid to be seen in public, vilified by what remains of an open, free press, and rejected as leaders by the public.

One can only hope. Americans are about to come face to face with the destiny designed by their runaway government.

Anticipating the open Friday, there has been the usual bounce in stock futures, though the prices being reflected for the final trading day of the week are simply noise, not signal, and are best disregarded. More and more, futures markets reflect hope rather than analysis.

In any case, an hour prior to the bell, Dow futures are up 290, NASDAQ futures are 182 ahead, and S&P futures are up 31 points. A more accurate understanding of what's happening globally is provided by gold and silver prices. They continue to rally higher and both precious metals have not stopped rallying. Silver has been kicking higher for a month now; gold's rally began in earnest about three weeks ago.

Overnight, silver touched $70 per ounce for the first time since mid-June. Spot gold was quoted as high as $4600, a level not seen since the middle of May.

Perhaps the most alarming market move is in bitcoin. It has moved from $64,000 to $77,000 in less than two days, a jump of more than 20 percent. Most of the other popular crypto issues have been rising along with it. The crypto market wants to tell the world that the U.S. dollar is unstable, unsafe for investment, and that electronic tokens are a better deal, the government unable to affect its price or dilute its value.

That may be a nice story, but the tangle of regulations and tax policies surrounding crypto investments says otherwise. The original premise of bitcoin being a safe, anonymous currency for peer-to-peer transactions has long ago been abandoned. Governments everywhere are involved in it, from ownership to regulation and for profit. Besides, China has banned it. El Salvador has abandoned it.

For the week, through Thursday's close, the Dow is down 973 points, the NASDAQ is off 263, and the S&P 500 has shed 144 points. While this week's decline has been notable, it is not in isolation. Stocks have been chopping around for months. The S&P made a new all-time high last week. Is this the end? Probably not.

Treasury Secretary Bessent has lit the fuse on the time bomb that is the U.S. treasury complex. The question on everybody's mind is, how far away from the blast zone do I want to be when it eventually blows up?

At the Close, Thursday, August 20, 2026:
Dow: 52,759.21, -703.84 (-1.32%)
NASDAQ: 26,067.17, -263.92 (-1.00%)
S&P 500: 7,641.16, -66.82 (-0.87%)
NYSE Composite: 24,548.26, -159.01 (-0.64%)