The first day of fall is officially Tuesday, the 22nd.
That shouldn't come as a shock. Summer always ends around this time of year. Fund managers will be looking seriously to close their books with gains over the next six weeks, right up until the midterms, at which point, things could get a bit more scary.
A lot of people would prefer some cooler temperatures and relief from what has been an exceedingly hot summer in many places across the U.S. Blame science and El Niño.
Stocks
The week was split between minor gains on the NASDAQ and S&P, with the Dow and NYSE Composite losing ground. Preference was seen for tech stocks, usually the most volatile, after the Fed hiked the federal funds rate from 3.50-3.75% to 3.75-4.00% on Wednesday.
Market reaction was muted, some might say priced in, as the FOMC was widely expected to raise rates in an effort to stave off inflation. What happens at the next two FOMC meetings of 2026 - October 26-27 and December 8-9 - remains uncertain, though condition may warrant further rate hikes if data continues to suggest high prices for food and, especially, energy, as gas prices have hit the highest levels since May and are threatening to go even higher.
President Trump's war effort against Iran has been a miserable failure, one that may lead to Republicans losing control of the House and Senate in November's midterms. Wall Street would probably relish that, as split branches of the government usually results in gridlock, with neither party able to dictate policy nor pass any new legislation. The up-or-downside of the Democrats taking control in the legislative branch might result in another round of impeachment proceedings against Trump, though without a super-majority in the Senate, it migt not be worth the effort, given Republicans would be reluctant to convict one of their own, and the President would be a lame duck for the remainder of his term, though January, 2029.
More likely would be a mad scramble to find a suitable runner for president by the Dems. They have nobody with any particular outstanding qualities. Maybe they'll put up Michelle Obama or send Hillary Clinton out on the stump again. If it's Kamala Harris, she's an almost certain loser.
Disregarding politics for now, the stock market (and the Republicans) seems desperate for some kind of positive catalyst leading up to 3rd quarter earnings results, which are still three weeks away. For the interim, stocks could easily trade in either direction or simply continue their sideways meanderings.
With the rate policy decision out of the way, there won't be much on the economic calendar for the market to digest. The Chicago Fed reports on economic activity on Monday, the Richmond Fed releases its manufacturing index Tuesday. On Wednesday, China's President Xi arrives in Washington for a series of meetings with Trump. The visit will be brief, with Xi heading home on Friday.
Thursday may be the most impactful day of the week with New Home Sales and Building Permits for August and the usual weekly unemployment claims data. Friday offers the Michigan Consumer Sentiment report and Durable Goods Orders for August. There are a slew of Fed speakers making the rounds during the week, so the chance that one of them may slip in a tidbit about the future of interest rate policy will be closely followed.
Probably more than anything else, even the warnings of AI doom from Anthropic and OpenAI that fell on deaf ears this week, interest rates will be driving investment decisions. Conditions in the Middle East and Ukraine will also be in focus.
Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/14/2026 | 3.79 | 3.80 | 3.81 | 3.86 | 3.88 | 3.95 | 3.98 |
| 08/21/2026 | 3.80 | 3.77 | 3.80 | 3.88 | 3.90 | 3.95 | 4.03 |
| 08/28/2026 | 3.84 | 3.83 | 3.86 | 3.90 | 3.94 | 4.02 | 4.15 |
| 09/04/2026 | 3.79 | 3.83 | 3.90 | 3.91 | 4.00 | 3.98 | 4.13 |
| 09/11/2026 | 3.93 | 3.99 | 4.05 | 4.07 | 4.15 | 4.12 | 4.35 |
| 09/18/2026 | 3.97 | 3.98 | 4.10 | 4.14 | 4.24 | 4.24 | 4.44 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/14/2026 | 4.17 | 4.24 | 4.36 | 4.51 | 4.68 | 5.25 | 5.25 |
| 08/21/2026 | 4.24 | 4.31 | 4.43 | 4.57 | 4.74 | 5.25 | 5.27 |
| 08/28/2026 | 4.34 | 4.41 | 4.48 | 4.59 | 4.73 | 5.21 | 5.22 |
| 09/04/2026 | 4.37 | 4.45 | 4.54 | 4.65 | 4.78 | 5.25 | 5.24 |
| 09/11/2026 | 4.63 | 4.69 | 4.78 | 4.87 | 4.96 | 5.38 | 5.35 |
| 09/18/2026 | 4.76 | 4.83 | 4.86 | 4.93 | 5.01 | 5.38 | 5.34 |
With the FOMC rate hike achieved on Wednesday, treasuries took the news without skipping a beat, sending long-dated maturities toward multi-year highs. Attributed to those known as "bond vigilantes", the mysterious gang that bids yields higher and bond prices lower, long-term rates are poised to break out to even higher levels given the government's reluctance to cut spending as the fiscal year hurtles toward the September 30 end.
Though Fed Chairman Warsh is wont to speak out loud about the federal government's drunken sailor spending polices, there is the undertone of defiance in not just the Fed's recent rate hike but also in Warsh's reluctance to give any advance optics on future Fed policies. Warsh has the full picture and if raising interest rates won't keep the government from overspending, he might consider pushing them even higher, making interest payments on the debt even more onerous than they already are.
There appears to be at least a skirmish, if not an all-out war, between the Fed and Treasury. Secretary Bessent appears to be on board with the government's free-spending policies and only acts to keep interest rates on the long end when it is absolutely a necessity. Warsh, on the other hand, seems to be plotting a war path toward the government. If he can't convince them to rein in spending by raising rates, he might just start talking about it on any given occasion. He is acutely aware of the problem, but seems to want to be gentlemanly about forcing the issue.
In terms of spreads, 2s-10s are heading for convergence, contracting down to +25, the tightest since February, 2025. Full spectrum continues at the high end of the range, dropping slightly from last week's +142 to +137. A steepening curve often reflects markets' belief in stronger growth, higher inflation, or greater government borrowing needs. The evident danger appears to be at the long end, which doesn't seem to want to stop pricing in high inflation and persistent government spending.
Tightening in the notes from two to 10 years, suggests something different, namely tighter conditions and potential recession. The treasury curve plays the long game, so there isn't likely to be anything conclusive before the first quarter of 2027, unless there's chaos in the political class, always a possibility.
The economy seems to be galloping right along. Warsh and the Fed made the first move to get that horse back in the bridle. Time, and the government response, will tell where this is all going. Thus far, the government, most of which will be absent the next six weeks, doesn't seem concerned at this juncture. They should be.
Spreads:
2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37
7/24: +36
7/31: +47
8/7: +46
8/14: +51
8/21: +50
8/28: +39
9/4: +41
9/11: +33
9/18: +25
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133
7/24: +136
7/31: +149
8/7: +140
8/14: +146
8/21: +147
8/28: +138
9/4: +145
9/11: +142
9/18: +137
Oil/Gas
Conditions in the Middle East have reached extreme levels of conflict and the war has spread to include Saudi Arabia, as Houthi rebels have escalated their attacks on the kingdom. Brent ($98.77)and WTI ($94.77) each closed out the week lower, though gas prices in the U.S. gapped higher across the country.
As long as the U.S. continues to ply military policy in the region, oil and gas prices will be unstable and probably to the high side, affecting all business and pricing of just about everything on the consumer end. President Trump, whatever his intentions were at the end of February, needs to find an escape route quickly or risk his party losing the midterms, and, with that, the ability ot direct any kind of policy.
Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.29 last week and $4.46 this week, rising to the highest Sunday price in over four months. Peace prospects in the Middle East are off the table, oil flows remain disrupted, and the president is getting serious heat from party members concerning the upcoming midterms, which Republicans are now more likely than ever to lose.
Gas prices in key states:
California (leader): $6.15 (+0.18)
Washington: $5.55 (0.00)
Indiana: $4.03 (+0.44)
Oklahoma: $4.02 (+0.20)
Louisiana: $3.99 (+0.12)
Mississippi: $3.96 (+0.13)
Florida: $4.28 (+0.16)
Illinois: $4.91 (+0.43)
Pennsylvania: $4.57 (+0.07)
New York: $4.46 (+0.10)
Maryland: $4.21 (+0.02)
Michigan: $4.92 (+0.61)
Texas: $3.94 (lowest) (+0.10)
Georgia: $4.06 (+0.07)
On Sunday, September 20, there are forty-five (45) states with average prices at or above $4.00, with only three (3) below the $4 threshold (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi), not including Hawaii ($5.53) and Alaska ($5.04), with four above $5 (California, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington) and one, California, above $6.00. The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past 13 weeks, but now, a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging above $4.00 ($3.94-4.13) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region second, prices ranging higher, from $4.16 to $4.41. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest.
Prices in the Midwest shot higher this week as Illinois saw prices rise 43 cents and the shock was even worse in Michigan, with prices up 61 cents. All Northeast states, from Delaware and Maryland all the way to Maine, continue to average well above $4.00. Gas prices overall were higher in every state on the mainland, bar none.
Bitcoin
This week: $80,888.60
Last week: $77,245.85
2 weeks ago: $79,607.76
6 months ago: $70,687.77
One year ago: $115,706.10
Five years ago: $42,707.03
Crypto remains somewhat relevant despite the Senate turning down a cloture vote on the CLARITY act this week. The act seeks to define currencies and/or financial assets in cyrpto-land, as if anybody in the real world actually cares. The danger comes in the form of stablecoins gobbling up the treasury market and reducing the national debt to an absolute laughing stock and US$ currency to even cheaper status.
And this is supposed to be good for the United States?
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 66.09; last week: 67.43
Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 8/21: $4,661.60
Gold price 8/28: $4,504.10
Gold price 9/4: $4,477.20
Gold price 9/11: $4,390.00
Gold price 9/18: $4,415.90
Silver price 8/21: $69.01
Silver price 8/28: $67.09
Silver price 9/4: $66.82
Silver price 9/11: $65.02
Silver price 9/18: $66.79
SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 8/21: $4,609.49
Gold 8/28: $4,454.08
Gold 9/4: $4,429.45
Gold 9/11: $4,348.10
Gold 9/18: $4,377.63
Silver 8/21: $68.96
Silver 8/28: $66.34
Silver 9/4: $66.20
Silver 9/11: $64.48
Silver 9/18: $66.24
Gold and silver made gains over the week, rebounding sharply after being take down on the rate hike news. Still the safe haven of choice for people with brains, precious metals continue to be sold at what will look like bargain-basement prices in the not-so-distant future. Fiat currencies are being debased at an ever-increasing pace. There is no other reasonable refuge for protecting wealth.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 oz silver coin: | 69.99 | 92.00 | 77.97 | 75.72 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 69.95 | 82.29 | 75.83 | 74.50 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 4527.21 | 4788.42 | 4641.27 | 4641.04 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 4542.85 | 4701.28 | 4600.34 | 4583.95 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) lost ground during the week, ending at $76.01, a loss of $1.67 per troy ounce from the September 13 price of $77.68.
WEEKEND WRAP
The summer is just about over, so start putting away the beach gear and break out the boots. Markets are moving in ominous directions, with the major averages well off all-time highs and those record numbers beginning to look smaller and smaller in the rear-view mirror. The last record closes for the major indices were more than a month ago. Chances of breaking out between today and the midterms are slim, though one cannot fully ever discount the Wall Street ability to defy logic.
Stocks look to be trending sideways to lower and as long as interest rates at the long end continue to remain stubbornly high and inflation remains a problem, stocks don't appear ready to change that pattern.
At the Close, Friday, September 18, 2026:
Dow: 51,682.64, -95.40 (-0.18%)
NASDAQ: 26,522.54, +104.24 (+0.39%)
S&P 500: 7,650.50, +12.74 (+0.17%)
NYSE Composite: 23,998.76, -90.79 (-0.38%)
For the Week:
Dow: -890.65 (-1.69%)
NASDAQ: +189.51 (+0.72%)
S&P 500: +12.74 (+0.17%)
NYSE Composite: -332.80 (-1.37%)
Dow Transports: -549.17 (-2.66%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
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