ADP Reports 90,000 Jobs Added in September; PCE Below Expectations; GDP Grew at 2.2% in Q2 According to BEA's Third Estimate

Stocks spent another session leaning to the downside Tuesday, awaiting something, anything that might light a fire in the belly of the investment community.

They'd have to wait.

The only impactful economic release was the monthly JOLTS report that demonstrated, for the third straight month, that there were fewer job openings than people unemployed.

A slightly brighter picture emerged Wednesday morning when ADP released its National Employment Report for September, showing private employers adding 90,000 jobs during the month.

Hiring accelerated for the first time since May, led by education and health care and leisure and hospitality. Financial activities and professional and business services showed weakness.

Shortly thereafter, the BEA announced its third estimate of GDP for the second quarter.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the second quarter of 2026 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.5 percent (revised). The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the second quarter were consumer spending, investment, and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The BEA also threw some shade on the otherwise upbeat data, announcing that personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $190.8 billion (0.9 percent).

Real PCE increased $92.8 billion (0.6 percent at a monthly rate) in August. From the preceding month, the PCE price index for August increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for August increased 3.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.0 percent from one year ago.

Though these readings were flat, they were not increasing, and were below Wall Street estimates, offering some hope that the FOMC might keep the federal funds target rate at the current 3.75-4.00% at the October meeting. Futures markets were relieved on the news, with all three major indices spiking higher as the opening bell approached.

There's nothing like goosing inflation expectations to a level that ensures the actual data will come in below them to pump up markets. Wall Street and the trained seals in the corporate media are notorious for raising or lowering expectations in order to keep the narrative on a positive thrust. This morning's example is another of that kind.

"Be careful what you wish for" is applicable to the current conditions.

At the Close, Tuesday, September 29, 2026:
Dow: 51,349.92, -131.59 (-0.26%)
NASDAQ: 26,797.54, -22.84 (-0.09%)
S&P 500: 7,670.84, -12.85 (-0.17%)
NYSE Composite: 23,709.60, -47.71 (-0.20%)

Stocks Slump to Open Week; Boomers Increasingly Favoring Fixed-Income Over Equities Becomes a Long-Term Concern

Stocks stumbled out of the gate Monday and remained in negative territory for the entire session as tensions in the Middle East and persistent inflation continued to worry investors. At the same time, higher yields in long-dated treasuries pulled skeptics out of dividend-paying stocks to the perceived safety of fixed income.

The logic is simple. Why hold stocks with three or four percent returns when two-year notes are throwing off a similar amount, risk-free. Stocks can rise or fall in price, which erodes gains, while bonds deliver monthly or quarterly returns without the worry.

Retirees, and the fund managers who handle their money, are moving to the safety of corporate and treasury paper, avoiding the drama. Baby Boomers, who represent the largest pools of investment funds, are sailing away toward Easy Street, now that the regime of low rates is finally dead and buried.

The only problem with this generational shift is that inflation continues to noisily erode purchasing power, though that is not a concern for the elderly armed with significant assets. They have enough continuing income from pensions, Social Security and long-held investments that make rising prices an annoyance rather than a base case concern.

The dynamics of geo-politics, midterms, and data center power grabs don't bother people in their 60s, 70s and 80s as much as it does working-class middle-aged individuals, who are still building retirement nest-eggs and looking for opportunities n stocks. Simplified, it may be assumed that Millennials are driving the speculative side of the market while Boomers are beginning to wind down equity holdings in favor of more and more treasury issuance, a relief to the government, which has been running low on buyers at a time when issuance is high and growing.

If the federal government insists on overspending and running larger and larger deficits, elderly Americans are increasingly more than happy to fund them at higher and higher rates. After all, holdings in treasury notes and bonds are funding some 20-30% of government expenditures, so anybody on Social Security might be said to be self-funding, getting a monthly stipend from the money they've lent to the government, plus a generous return. It's really a win-win for them.

There are a number of caveats to which the government should be paying attention. While there are roughly 10,000 Boomers retiring every day, 14,000 to 15,000 are dying at the same time. That means the government will be paying out less in benefits over time, net of annual COLAs, though, on the other hand side of the coin, their pool of potential investors will be shrinking. The government will also be spending more of the budget on interest on the debt, which, if rates continue to rise, means that spending amount will accelerate.

At some point there's a collision of interests. Maybe, when interest on the debt exceeds Social Security spend, Boomers, who are declining in number anyway, might not see investing with the government as a solid prospect. At that point, the government may run out of willing investors, though Millennials may pick up some of the slack. It's a problem without a solution at this point, but it's still a condition that may not become realized for another five years, when the last of the Baby Boomers (those born in 1964) reach full retirement age, making 2030-2031 appear as a possible inflection point.

In the meantime, stocks will continue their antics, but it is the funding mechanism - treasuries and other fixed income investments - that is calling the shots and sending the real signal. It's something to bear in mind when considering investment horizons.

As the open approaches on Tuesday, stock futures are higher, but only moderately. There are still too many issues in the finance and investment world under consideration to formulate a positive picture.

At the Close, Monday, September 28, 2026:
Dow: 51,481.51, -347.11 (-0.67%)
NASDAQ: 26,820.38, -248.34 (-0.92%)
S&P 500: 7,683.69, -59.72 (-0.77%)
NYSE Composite: 23,757.31, -155.28 (-0.65%)

WEEKEND WRAP: NASDAQ at Record Levels; Oil, Gas Remain Pricey; Interest Rates Spike; Gold, Silver Futures in Backwardation

In case any more proof was needed that equity markets remain grossly overvalued, this week's action on the NASDAQ sent home the message, clearly and loudly, closing at new all-time highs on Monday (27,122.09) and Tuesday (27,244.28) before giving a little back as the week progressed.

The Shiller PE ended the week at 41.48, a bit lower that recent highs, but still the second highest ever, behind the measure of 44.19 recorded at the height of the dotcom bubble (December 1999). It bears noting the Shiller Mean: 17.42, and the Median: 16.13, observing that stocks are generally 3X overpriced on a measuring tool that dates back to 1871. Perhaps, as some suggest, the world, and, especially the United States, entered a new epoch at the turn of the century. If true, then stocks are supposed to carry extreme valuations. If not, reversion to the mean might be a painful experience.

It also bears noting that the purchasing power of the dollar has undergone severe decline in the current century, so much that a stock that may have been worth $30 per share in 1990 is now worth $100 in devalued dollars. That would explain much of the upside tendencies to which the markets have grown accustomed. It does not explain, however, why gold has been revalued, in U.S. dollars, from less than $300 in the late 1990s to the current valuation of roughly $4400, a nearly 15-fold increase. That said, buying and holding gold would be the more fruitful investment. In 1996, the S&P 500 was roughly 1000. Today's price above $7,700 is not quite an 8-fold gain.

A NASDAQ price of 2,000 in 1998 returned closer to gold's mark, a roughly 14-fold increase. We should all be rich.

How markets will continue to play out through the midterms and beyond represents only a small snapshot of the longer term. It is likely time to stay the course, no matter one's investment preferences. With dollar depreciation accelerating, holding anything other than cash will probably be tradable for food or energy at some future point.

This comes as a reminder that the best investors are those who choose carefully and do not deter from their chosen paths.

Stocks

As noted, it was a darn good week for the NASDAQ, particularly in Mag7 and semi-related stocks. The AI push continues to fire up markets. Whether AI is eventually a boon or a bane, the money being thrown into it is serious, despite some setbacks, such as Oracle's troubles at a New Mexico build.

While the rise on the NASDAQ appears relentless, the Dow has struggled to keep pace. Year-to-date, the Naz is ahead by 16.46%, with the Dow lagging, up only 7.83%, less than half the gain. Though the NASDAQ rip may be a bit noisy, Dow stocks have suffered because of the rise in long-term interest rates, which are competing with dividend-bearing stocks, typical of the Dow 30 blue chips.

It's a case-in-point of speculation running hotter than investing and it will continue... until something breaks, if allowed to.

Heading into the midterms, the usual games are expected to continue, with back-and-forth with Iran and Ukraine leading the headlines. The Republican party's leader, President Trump, is likely to pull a rabbit out of somewhere for an October surprise that will leave Democrats crying in their non-alcohol beers. The stock market will love it. The press will loathe it. Most people will barely notice, and those that do will understand it for what it is, a cheap trick to garner support.

Thus, at least until November 3rd, expect stocks to continue ramping higher. That's not a prediction. It's simply a judgement call based on current non-realities.

The week ahead, which splits the end of the fiscal year and the 3rd and 4th quarters on Wednesday and Thursday, offers a few tasty tidbits of economic data.

Possibly the most impactful won't appear until Friday, when the BLS releases Non-farm payrolls for September. Prior to that, Tuesday offers the monthly JOLTS data. On Wednesday ADP releases its monthly employment report. The PCE price index and the third estimate of second quarter GDP are also out on Wednesday. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and weekly unemployment claims are out on Thursday.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
08/21/2026	3.80	3.77	3.80	3.88	3.90	3.95	4.03
08/28/2026	3.84	3.83	3.86	3.90	3.94	4.02	4.15
09/04/2026	3.79	3.83	3.90	3.91	4.00	3.98	4.13
09/11/2026	3.93	3.99	4.05	4.07	4.15	4.12	4.35
09/18/2026	3.97	3.98	4.10	4.14	4.24	4.24	4.44
09/25/2026	4.04	4.14	4.20	4.24	4.32	4.33	4.50

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
08/21/2026	4.24	4.31	4.43	4.57	4.74	5.25	5.27
08/28/2026	4.34	4.41	4.48	4.59	4.73	5.21	5.22
09/04/2026	4.37	4.45	4.54	4.65	4.78	5.25	5.24
09/11/2026	4.63	4.69	4.78	4.87	4.96	5.38	5.35
09/18/2026	4.76	4.83	4.86	4.93	5.01	5.38	5.34
09/25/2026	4.81	4.94	4.98	5.06	5.17	5.54	5.49

Treasuries had one of the most volatile weeks in years this past week, especially the 10-year note and 30-year bond, with yields rising to multi-year highs, though that did not seem to be particularly worrisome to equity investors.

2s-10s expanded to +36, 11 basis points higher than last week's tighter +25. Full spectrum continues at the high end of the range, up to +145. A steepening curve often reflects markets' belief in stronger growth, higher inflation, or greater government borrowing needs. The evident danger appears to be at the long end, which doesn't seem to want to stop pricing in high inflation and persistent government spending.

The economy continues to be galloping right along. Warsh and the Fed made the first move to get that horse back in the bridle, but the bond vigilantes are doing what they do, bidding prices lower and yields higher.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37
7/24: +36
7/31: +47
8/7: +46
8/14: +51
8/21: +50
8/28: +39
9/4: +41
9/11: +33
9/18: +25
9/25: +36

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133
7/24: +136
7/31: +149
8/7: +140
8/14: +146
8/21: +147
8/28: +138
9/4: +145
9/11: +142
9/18: +137
9/25: +145

Oil/Gas

Conditions in the Middle East continue to erode, with Iran targeting more vessels and the U.S. maintaining its blockade. Some reports are suggesting that more oil is flowing out of the gulf region, with Saudi Arabia picking up most of te slack. The veracity of these reports is questionable, but the price of crude has fallen, which, in the larger scheme of things, doesn't really matter much.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.46 last week and $4.45 this week, remaining near the highest Sunday price in over four months. Peace prospects in the Middle East are off the table, oil flows remain disrupted, and the president is getting serious heat from party members concerning the upcoming midterms, which Republicans are now hoping that gas and diesel prices moderate over the next five weeks.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $6.35 (+0.20)
Washington: $5.52 (-0.03)
Indiana: $3.89 (lowest) (-0.14)
Oklahoma: $4.07 (+0.05)
Louisiana: $4.00 (+0.01)
Mississippi: $3.97 (+0.01)
Florida: $4.40 (+0.12)
Illinois: $4.77 (-0.14)
Pennsylvania: $4.53 (-0.04)
New York: $4.45 (-0.01)
Maryland: $4.35 (+0.14)
Michigan: $4.67 (-0.25)
Texas: $3.89 (lowest) (-0.05)
Georgia: $4.17 (+0.11)

On Sunday, September 27, there are forty-seven (47) states with average prices at or above $4.00, with only three (3) below the $4 threshold (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi), not including Hawaii ($5.56) and Alaska ($5.05), with four above $5 (California, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington) and one, California, above $6.00. The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past 14 weeks, but now, a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging above $4.00 ($3.89-4.17) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region second, prices ranging higher, from $4.12 to $4.33. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest.

All Northeast states, from Delaware and Maryland all the way to Maine, continue to average well above $4.00.

Bitcoin

This week: $84,540.25
Last week: $80,888.60
2 weeks ago: $77,245.85
6 months ago: $66,214.66
One year ago: $109,587.90
Five years ago: $47,675.17

Crypto had a solid week to the upside, especially bitcoin, which ramped to its highest level in nine months.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 66.64; last week: 66.09

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 8/28: $4,504.10
Gold price 9/4: $4,477.20
Gold price 9/11: $4,390.00
Gold price 9/18: $4,415.90
Gold price 9/25: $4,320.50

Silver price 8/28: $67.09
Silver price 9/4: $66.82
Silver price 9/11: $65.02
Silver price 9/18: $66.79
Silver price 9/25: $64.71

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 8/28: $4,454.08
Gold 9/4: $4,429.45
Gold 9/11: $4,348.10
Gold 9/18: $4,377.63
Gold 9/25: $4,283.78

Silver 8/28: $66.34
Silver 9/4: $66.20
Silver 9/11: $64.48
Silver 9/18: $66.24
Silver 9/25: $64.28

Gold and silver continued to be under pressure, though both may be setting up bases that would suggest higher prices in the medium term. Conditions continue to suggest allocation of cash toward PMs. Futures prices being higher than spot, suggests that the purposeful suppression of prices in precious metals has exceeded the patience of buyers.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	68.95	92.50	74.88	72.00
1 oz silver bar:	69.95	81.00	75.54	75.91
1 oz gold coin:	4420.71	4663.96	4507.24	4479.42
1 oz gold bar:	4445.71	4597.12	4504.90	4489.73

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) lost ground during the week, ending at $74.58, a decline of $1.43 per troy ounce from the September 20 price of $76.01.

WEEKEND WRAP

At the Close, Friday, September 25, 2026:
Dow: 51,828.62, +478.64 (+0.93%)
NASDAQ: 27,068.72, +129.34 (+0.48%)
S&P 500: 7,743.41, +39.28 (+0.51%)
NYSE Composite: 23,912.59, +96.09 (+0.40%)

For the Week:
Dow: +145.98 (+0.28%)
NASDAQ: +546.17 (+2.06%)
S&P 500: +92.91 (+1.21%)
NYSE Composite: -86.17 (-0.36%)
Dow Transports: -506.88 (-2.52%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Plunge Protection Team Worked Hard for Five Minutes on Thursday; They Will Be Back; Possible Iran Deal Pushes Oil Lower, Again

Call it whatever you prefer, but some form of the Plunge Protection Team was in action Thursday, just after noon ET.

The NASDAQ, Dow, and S&P 500, without any news or algo-gripping headlines other than the usual clickbait trope of a potential deal to open the Strait of Hormuz, suddenly shot skyward between 12:13 and 12:18 pm ET, the NASDAQ gaining 173 points, the Dow up 276, and the S&P popping 40 points, all in just a five-minute window, ostensibly during one of the slowest trading periods of the day, right at lunchtime.

To those unfamiliar with the Plunge Protection Team (otherwise known as the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, was created in 1988 by President Ronald Reagan following the stock market crash of October 1987, also known as Black Monday, to restore investor confidence and maintain orderly markets. It has been in operation in U.S. markets - and probably in foreign markets as well - ever since.

Over the years, since 1988 is more than a generation ago, the function and makeup of the "Working Group" or "PPT" has probably morphed into something different, more complex, less obvious, and involving different players. The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, comes to mind, since he is the self-declared "house" of financial markets, and also the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), which operates as a slush fund to manage FX flows and other internal plumbing of the world's market structures.

The upshot of Thursday's knee-jerk appreciation for stocks is that what used to be regarded as free, open, fair markets are nothing but, and haven't been for a long time. Thursday's very noticeable upswing was the result of naked intervention and the work was done by agents of the federal government and/or Wall Street's big money insiders. The existence of these manipulating entities (there are surely more than one) is both grotesque and immoral. While nobody likes to see stocks lose value, an equal number of people probably don't like being told lies, especially when those lies involve the deliberate destruction of the currency - in the immediate case, the U.S. dollar's purchasing power - via asset hijacking on public exchanges.

Talk to anybody under the age of 35 about money or economics and you're more than likely to come away with a feeling that they don't understand any of it and probably shouldn't be trusted to pay their own rent. Boomers, the fast-fading generation that benefitted most from fiat money and the necessity of asset price inflation, might understand and comprehend a bit more, but, generally, not much.

The lucky ones got their college degrees, bought houses, worked their forty years or so and retired with pretty healthy benefits from 401k plans, defined benefit plans, and, of course, Social Security. They had it good. Better than most, even better than their "Greatest Generation" parents. Some of them still remember 10-cent comic books, 20-cent McDonald's cheeseburgers and 35-cent-a-gallon gasoline. These days, a decent comic book is $4-6, a Mickey D's cheeseburger typically runs north of $3.00, and gas is $4.35 a gallon on a good day.

The purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has been consistently and purposely debased since the mid-60s when silver coins were taken out of circulation and exacerbated in 1971 when then-president Richard M. Nixon ended the convertibly of dollars into gold "temporarily", which turned into "permanently" pretty darn quickly.

The last Baby Boomers were born in 1964, making them roughly 62 years old today and eligible for early retirement under Social Security, but, luck being tough for late arrivers, they face a 30% cut from full benefits, which used to be age 65, then 66, and now kick in at age 67.

Baby Boomers were retiring at a rate of 10,000 per day, but, they are dying at about 15,000 a day, producing a net loss of 5,000 per day or 1,825,000 people per year that will no longer be receiving SS benefits, yet the system continues to predict insolvency by the year 2030, which is not that far away.

American politicians of all stripes have squandered the wealth of the country. It's that simple. Instead of investing in better infrastructure and public works that would benefit the general public, they spent it on useless wars, military hardware, and the creation of the largest welfare state ever known. Less than half the country actually works for a living, about 169 million. The rest are either under the age of 18, retired, or on the dole, about 72 million. It's a national disgrace and the blame falls squarely on the public, which allowed it to happen by electing the same crooked politicians year after year, cycle after cycle and listening to the controlled propaganda machine called the mainstream media cheering it all on, all the time.

The U.S. government has been running defictis averaging $2 trillion a year since 2020 and that's unlikely to change. Interest alone on the public debt is now more than $1.4 trillion a year. You pay taxes, the government collects and spends that money, then borrows another $2 trillion every year. That is not a sustainable position no matter how hard you listen to President Trump and his band of horn-blowers telling you everything is just fine and dandy, thank you.

Living standards, educational standards, and just about every other standard in the United States has been falling for decades. You or somebody you know might be able to maintain their standard of living, but you or they are paying more for it because the currency is rapidly being debased. In the early 1970s, the median price of existing home was around $23,000. Today, it's $404,000. A thirty-year mortgage on such a home costs over $2,000 a month, and that's before property taxes, insurance, and utilities and maintenance costs.

Who can afford that? Only people making upwards of $100,000 a year and that's stretching it.

The point being that inflation, the hidden tax Austrian economists have persistently warned about for decades, has eaten away at everything in America. Even though it may not feel like it, it's now down to bare bones, which is why the Plunge Protection Team went in and goosed stocks on Thursday. They had to, because the system cannot withstand even a hint of a correction or significant downturn. Any thought of a recession is out of the question. Outside of the Covid experience of 2020, the U.S. hasn't had a real recession since 2008, which, in terms of economic history, is a long time. Recessions generally occur about every 10 years. They clean out bad investment and create an environment from which the general economy can grow. Nowadays, the U.S. can't afford that because it has overindulged on credit and a true correction in stocks and an accompanying recession would more than likely cause a calamitous crash and politicians taking blame, and we can't have that.

So, expect stocks to not lose value, but for food and gas prices to continue higher for the foreseeable future, meaning well into 2027 and probably beyond. The U.S. is trapped in a vicious debt cycle of its own creation and there is no escape except to continue inflating asset values (stocks), which comes neatly wrapped with price inflation for everything else.

On Thursday, the PPT turned big losses into minor ones. Friday might look like a huge, broad rally. Muppets who sold on Thursday are bag-holders. Wall Street elite made bank.

It bears repeating:

The government needs to keep the game going, the rich are perfectly willing to play along, the middle class has no choice, and the poor get a free ride. - Fearless Rick, Money Daily, 9/22/26

With the opening bell minutes away, Dow futures are up 135, NASDAQ futures are up 113, and S&P futures are ahead by 18 points. The Trump-Xi summit has taken a back seat to negotiations with Iran this morning, with hopes of a deal driving oil lower (WTI, $92/barrel) and equities higher. The elephant in the room continues to be yields on long-dated treasury maturities. Yield on the 10-year note is at 5.18% with the 30-year yielding 5.47%.

At the Close, Thursday, September 24, 2026:
Dow: 51,349.98, -161.61 (-0.31%)
NASDAQ: 26,939.37, +3.34 (+0.01%)
S&P 500: 7,704.13, -1.90 (-0.02%)
NYSE Composite: 23,816.49, -31.75 (-0.13%)

Spiking Treasury Yields Send Equity Investors Scrambling for the Exits; Gas, Diesel Prices Harming Republican Midterm Chances; Gold, Silver Under Pressure

Treasury yields took off like bottle rockets on the 4th of July Wednesday, spurred higher by Flash PMI data that came in far ahead of expectations for September.

The headline flash S&P Global US PMI Composite Output Index rose from 56.0 in August to 58.4 in September, registering the fastest expansion since July 2021 and an acceleration of growth for a fourth successive month.

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI jumped from 53.9 in August to 57.0 in September, according to the flash reading, registering the strongest improvement in business conditions since May 2022.

The acceleration in business activity sent yields spiking higher. By the end of the day, yield on the 10-year note jumped to 5.11% a move of 15 basis points over Tuesday's level. Yield on the 30-year bond advanced 11 basis points, from 5.29% to 5.40%.

Long-dated maturities, from the two-year note to the seven-year all spiked higher by 14 to 16 basis points (0.14 to 0.16%) over the course of the day. With bond prices falling, stocks were equally out of favor as the major indices each took losses, led by the NASDAQ, which shed 1.13% after making new highs on Monday and again on Tuesday.

Exit doors at the NASDAQ and NYSE are wide open Thursday morning, with stock futures tumbling in anticipation of the opening bell. The 30-year bond yield tacked on another four basis points in early trading Thursday, sending the yield to its highest level since 2004. With bond prices reeling, investors are becoming nervous about risky stock holdings. An hour before the open, Dow futuers were off by 185 points, with NASDAQ futures falling 330 and S&P futures off 33.

Crude oil prices have been rising overnight with WTI futures above $94 and Brent futures topping $100 as Iran upped the ante in the ongoing conflict, suggesting an expansion of the war into the Indian Ocean if it is attacked again. The U.S. continues to maintain a military blockade in the region and has a major base at Diego Garcia, some 2400 miles from Iran. Expansion of the war to target U.S. Navy vessels and possibly its most important refueling base is a condition that American leaders have not anticipated. Iran's rhetoric continues to speak defiance, but neither side seems ready to back down or negotiate at this point, even though negotiators were reported to have met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly Wednesday.

Continuation of the regional fracas appears to be counter-productive for the Trump administration which risks losing control of the House and Senate in the upcoming midterms. An end to the fighting and opening of the Strait of Hormuz would ease prices for gas at the pump and also for diesel fuel, which has hit record prices as the White House reportedly has scrapped a proposed diesel export ban.

Diesel, used widely in industry, farming, and trucking, has the potential to raise prices on just about everything that needs to be shipped, from food to household and consumer goods. According to AAA, a gallon of diesel currently costs $6.52, a 73% jump from the $3.77 price just before the war began at the end of February.

Meanwhile, gold and silver remain under pressure. Gold fell to a low of $4,244 and silver priced as low as $63.20 per troy ounce overnight.

Between the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, soaring prices for food and fuel, interest rates ripping higher, bubble prices on stocks in general, and policies coming out of the White House that make little to no sense, markets are set up for a near-perfect storm.

How Wall Street and Washington try to manage to talk their way out of this mess will be a wonder to behold. The narrative that President Trump and his allies continue to promote - that America is the "hottest" nation and the economy is just all well and good - appears to be cracking under the weight of reality.

At the Close, Wednesday, September 23, 2026:
Dow: 51,511.59, -352.10 (-0.68%)
NASDAQ: 26,936.04, -308.24 (-1.13%)
S&P 500: 7,706.03, -58.61 (-0.75%)
NYSE Composite: 23,848.25, -180.82 (-0.75%)