As has been the case for weeks, the White House continues to tease peace negotiations with Iran, without any tangible results. The administration continues to reject Iran's various responses and demands with impunity. One would almost believe that the U.S. simply doesn't want to make a deal or come to any kind of semi-permanent structural agreement with Iran, the U.S. faction always backpedaling to cries of "Iran can't have a nuclear weapon!"
Not wishing to be swayed by U.S. demands, the Iranians continue to harp on about sovereignty, rights, and obligations to their people concerning enrichment of nuclear material which they do not desire to relinquish. That appears to be the main sticking point, neither side seemingly incapable of making concessions on the issue.
So, that's the way it's likely to stay, neither side giving in; the Iranians having a degree of control over what passes through the Strait of Hormuz and the Americans having some control over what continues through the Gulf of Oman and into the Indian Ocean via their blockade. Both sides appear content with that arrangement, for now.
The standoff could extend much further into the future than most analysts believe. It is n't hard to imagine the U.S. and Iran remaining in a long-lasting feud stretching past the midterms and into 2027. From a historical perspective, that is exactly what should happen. There was a war, however short and brutal, that is merely suspended by a tenuous ceasefire. Both sides continue to take potshots and random attacks, falling short of anything that would trigger a resumption of full military action. The U.S. can't get its navy close enough to Iran's shoreline to affect any kind of military retreat and Iran has essentially no navy or air force by which to wage an oceanic confrontation. The U.S. lacks the willingness to attempt a ground invasion and has no place safe enough to assemble the necessary force in advance of an invasion, besides it being a suicide mission.
That's the nutshell version. There's certainly more going on behind the scenes that neither side is willing to disclose publicly, but, considering the logistical implications, countries highly dependent on imported oil from the Middle East will find themselves short-shrifted and facing rationing and shutdowns of industry. The U.S. doesn't care. They have all the oil and energy resources they need. Iran does as well. Nothing in the calculus of the global energy infrastructure is going to change the situation in any reasonable manner.
There will be crisis management in most countries at some level, but, there's still enough oil coming from other places to compensate. The U.S. is more than willing to sell oil to anybody, even China, for instance, and they've managed ot keep prices in the U.S. at somewhat manageable, though high, levels.
Two things for certain about the end game: Inflation and slower productivity, perhaps recession in many countries all within the same time frame. Play on.
Stocks
Another banner week for stocks sent the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P to record levels.
There's so much loose money afloat that any thoughts of shorting the market or seeking a dip by which to buy in seem like pure pie-in-the-sky pipe dreams. Profitable trades are turned right back into more speculation and momentum-building. With gold and silver stalled at fairly high levels and treasuries becoming an orphan to the system, stocks are actually a reasonable place to invest, if one can hold one's nose long enough to discourage thoughts about valuations and fundamentals.
It's a party so long as the government continues its runaway deficit spending and the Fed doesn't push back hard against rising levels of inflation. The Shiller PE ended the week at 42.66, the highest level since April, 2000, and the second-highest on record. Anybody who pays the slightest bit of attention to this measure can clearly understand the mechanism by which stock markets are functioning, highly-inflated valuations serving a momentum trade for the ages. All indications are pointing to higher stock prices amid an inflationary environment that is setting people's hair on fire, in grocery stores, gas stations, and just about everywhere else.
It's not going to stop until it does. The trick is to get out somewhere near the top because history teaches that there will undoubtably be a top, followed by a massive unwinding. Bear with it.
The week ahead brings more stragglers reporting first quarter 2026 results. The focus will be mostly on Dollar General on Tuesday, and Macy's on Wednesday. Lululemon will get some play from the trendy workout apparel crowd Thursday.
Monday: (before open) SAIC (SAIC); (after close) Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Credo (CRDO)
Tuesday: (before open) Victoria's Secret (VSCO), Signet Jewelers (SIG), Donaldson Filtrations Sstems (DCI), Dollar General (DG); (after close) PicPay (PICS), PetMeds (PETS), Gitlab (GTLB), Paloalto Netowrks (PANW), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Sportsman's Warehouse (SPWH)
Wednesday: (before open) Medtronic (MDT), Macy's (M), Ollie's ((OLLI), THOR (THO); (after close) Five Below (FIVE), Petco (WOOF), Broadcom (AVGO), Crowdstrike (CRWD)
Thursday: (before open) Brown Forman (BF.B), Ciena (CIEN), Toro (TTC); (after close) Lululemon (LULU), Docusign (DOCU)
Friday: (before open) ABM (AMM)
Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View. Highlights include Tuesday's JOLTS (job openings), ADP's Private Employer Report for May on Wednesday, Challenger Job Cuts and the Fed Balance Sheet on Thursday, and the May Non-Farm Payroll release prior to the market opening Friday. Non-farm payrolls for May 2026 are expected to increase modestly, with consensus estimates around +60,000 jobs and the unemployment rate likely remaining near 4.4%, with the analyst range between zero and +95,000.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/24/2026 | 3.69 | 3.72 | 3.71 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 3.71 | 3.67 |
| 05/01/2026 | 3.71 | 3.71 | 3.70 | 3.68 | 3.76 | 3.71 | 3.73 |
| 05/08/2026 | 3.71 | 3.70 | 3.68 | 3.69 | 3.75 | 3.74 | 3.75 |
| 05/15/2026 | 3.71 | 3.70 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 3.76 | 3.77 | 3.82 |
| 05/22/2026 | 3.72 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 3.68 | 3.78 | 3.79 | 3.86 |
| 05/29/2026 | 3.72 | 3.71 | 3.71 | 3.69 | 3.78 | 3.78 | 3.79 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/24/2026 | 3.78 | 3.80 | 3.92 | 4.10 | 4.31 | 4.88 | 4.91 |
| 05/01/2026 | 3.88 | 3.91 | 4.02 | 4.20 | 4.39 | 4.96 | 4.97 |
| 05/08/2026 | 3.90 | 3.92 | 4.02 | 4.19 | 4.38 | 4.93 | 4.95 |
| 05/15/2026 | 4.09 | 4.14 | 4.26 | 4.43 | 4.59 | 5.14 | 5.12 |
| 05/22/2026 | 4.13 | 4.18 | 4.27 | 4.41 | 4.56 | 5.06 | 5.07 |
| 05/29/2026 | 3.98 | 4.06 | 4.13 | 4.27 | 4.45 | 4.98 | 4.99 |
Notes and bonds were bought last week, bringing down yields while spreads remained well within current ranges. 2s-10s widened slightly to +47. The 30-day-30-year full spectrum spread narrowed to +127. These reflect very manageable conditions for banking interests, though hardly of a nature suggesting rapid expansion of lending. Spreads remain a bit tight, though they are a vast improvement from the post-Covid era, 2021-23.
The next FOMC meeting being the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, June 16-17, will be supplied with enough employment, wage, and inflation data (CPI, PPI) to formulate a rational policy which would likely feature the beginning of a hiking expedition to tamp down the inflation genie, which has surely escaped from the bottle. Warsh is keenly aware of this and will suffer the president's displeasure if he so chooses to go the "Volker" route. President Trump would prefer he stand down and allow inflation to take off. The stock market gains and inflated figures across the government data sets make him look good.
Something is going to go snap unless Warsh does the right thing and ignores the politics, a tall order.
Spreads:
2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
Oil/Gas
Thanks to the ongoing White House narrative of "nearing a deal" in the Iran conflict and no notable supply disruptions, WTI Crude Oil finished the week in New York at $87.76, down sharply from last Friday’s New York closing price of $97.00, which seems, on the surface, insanity, but is actually somewhat logical.
Nearly 25% of daily output is being cut off at the Strait of Hormuz and in the Indian Ocean. Oil prices on the global setting have risen from the 60s to the 90s, a gain of somewhere in the range of 33%. It's just makes sense to frame the disruption in this manner, as opposed to panic pricing in the $120-150 range. It's holding for now because traders do not want to get caught with too large a position either short or long as the futures market has been bounced around like a tennis ball at Wimbledon the past few months.
While the price of WTI crude has kept in a range from $90-$110 recently, this week's move below that level indicates that markets and traders are satisfied that any crisis has been averted and there's still enough - despite reports of dwindling stockpiles - to remain somewhat stable, for now. There is no certainty regarding a final outcome, so it's just simply day-trading, complete with wrinkles and nuances.
Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.50 last week and $4.29 this week, a significant change.
Somehow, the powers that be have managed to keep prices at the pump out of crisis range. Americans, having been through gas price hikes in the recent past, know how to adjust, and, with summer driving season dead ahead, expect more "close to home" vacations this year and maybe even some mention of the loathsome "stay-cations" which require no travel and no gas, spending that spare change on better eats and home-grown fun. Might not be so bad.
Prices in key states:
California (leader): $6.02 (-0.08)
Washington: $5.72 (-0.06)
Oklahoma (lowest): $3.77 (-0.20)
Mississippi: $3.84 (-0.11)
Florida: $4.03 (-0.34)
Illinois: $4.74 (+0.13)
Pennsylvania: $4.47 (-0.15)
New York: $4.50 (-0.07)
Maryland: $4.16 (-0.33)
Michigan: $4.26 (-0.28)
Texas: $4.77 (-0.25)
Georgia: $3.80 (-0.16)
On Sunday, May 24th, there are fourteen (14) states with average prices below $4.00, a large move from just five last week, with 34 above the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.63) and Alaska ($5.20), four above $5 (California, Nevada, Washington, Oregon), and one above $6 (California). The Southeast has become the lowest region overall over the past two weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging well below $4.00 in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi.
Bitcoin
This week: $73,835.71
Last week: $76,800.00
2 weeks ago: $78,015.76
6 months ago: $85,807.97
One year ago: $104,494.50
Five years ago: $35,525.93
Look at those numbers. Bitcoin as an investment is just plain horrible. There seems to be no reason whatsoever to hold this vaporous "asset" (using the term very, very loosely in this instance) for any longer than it takes ot dispose of it.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 60.30; last week: 59.73
Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 5/1: $4,625.60
Gold price 5/8: $4,723.70
Gold price 5/15: $4,543.60
Gold price 5/22: $4,543.60
Gold price 5/29: $4,569.90
Silver price 5/1: $75.84
Silver price 5/8: $80.83
Silver price 5/15: $76.29
Silver price 5/22: $75.92
Silver price 5/29: $75.58
SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 5/1: $4,612.97
Gold 5/8: $4,714.90
Gold 5/15: $4,539.72
Gold 5/22: $4,508.74
Gold 5/29: $4,538.94
Silver 5/1: $75.34
Silver 5/8: $80.35
Silver 5/15: $75.94
Silver: 5/22: $75.48
Silver 5/29: $75.27
Gold and silver spent a third straight week rotating around a range of recent lows, gold at $4,500, with silver at $75, strangely suspicious prices suggesting these are key levels for derivative traders in futures markets wishing to contain prices of currencies alternative to the U.S. dollar.
While it is perfectly not all right to suppress competition, that's what the COMEX and LBMA does, and has done for the past 50-odd years, and there's little reason to believe they won't continue the practice, pretending that regional markets - with regional pricing mechanisms - in places like Shanghai, St. Petersburg, Dubai, and Singapore don't exist.
Those markets do indeed exist, though for casual buyers and stackers in the Western world, they are largely unreachable, and, for all practical purposes, useless. It would make little sense to transport small amounts of precious metals to markets in search of better prices unless those prices were significantly higher. A five dollar deviation in the price of silver or $100 in gold is not incentive enough to move physical metal.
Given that gold and silver have recently reached levels only dreamt about in years past, taking some profits at this point might not be such a bad idea, but only if one has sufficient metal in storage at the end of the day, a firm rationale for re-investment of any returns and a tax strategy. For those playing by the rules, such action would incur a high capital gains tax burden - a 28% hit in most cases - since gold and silver are treated as collectibles by the IRS.
That particular kind of IRS rule-making garbage is reason enough to hold onto gold and silver until either the IRS disappears or the U.S. government loses the ability to track and control money flows. Don't hold your breath waiting. Since gold and silver are thus encumbered by tyrannical government edicts, the obvious choice is to keep those assets close at hand and quietly pass them on to the next generation or use them as currency in surreptitious manners. Who knows, maybe your favorite plumber, electrician, gardener, or mechanic would like to add a little to his or her stack.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 oz silver coin: | 75.00 | 100.00 | 87.03 | 86.00 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 75.00 | 122.01 | 91.23 | 81.92 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 4587.64 | 4887.05 | 4760.76 | 4760.05 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 4670.25 | 4785.40 | 4740.98 | 4739.95 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) dipped modestly, to $86.55, a loss of 90 cents from the May 24 price of $87.45 per troy ounce, well within the recent range.
WEEKEND WRAP
Election politicking may actually be beneficial to the American people. With the Republicans in power, they have a vested interest in keeping inflation somewhat under control, so they're hell-bent on doing whatever it takes to keep inflation down until November. After that, most senators and house representatives will care less, likely much less. Whether they are able to thread the needle between high prices and a stalled economy is the big question. So far, they seem to be succeeding.
At the Close, Friday, May 29, 2026:
Dow: 51,032.46, +363.49 (+0.72%)
NASDAQ: 26,972.62, +55.15 (+0.20%)
S&P 500: 7,580.06, +16.43 (+0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 23,292.17, -10.10 (-0.04%)
For the Week:
Dow: +452.76 (+0.90%)
NASDAQ: +628.65 (+2.39%)
S&P 500: +106.59 (+1.43%)
NYSE Composite: +66.42 (+0.29%)
Dow Transports: +642.90 (+3.10%)
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