Getting a Grip on the Present Condition by Looking at Future Outcomes in Middle East and Beyond

Now that President Trump has made (somewhat) clear his intentions toward ending the conflict with Iran (he surely does not want this to drag on), it's probably better to look forward to a year from now than focus on current events, which have been confusing and difficult to comprehend. There are, however, some signals that can be taken for direction.

Nobody, not Hannibal, Napoleon, Churchill, not even the Donald himself, asks for a ceasefire when they are winning. Nobody. And that leads to the conclusion that the U.S. and Israel (and maybe especially Israel) are losing. Even if Trump's flash-bang stealth negotiators, Kushner and Witkoff, are talking to anybody, they're almost certainly getting the cold shoulder from their Iranian counterparts. Iran has steadfastly refused to negotiate with the U.S. in any manner since they were attacked just as they were negotiating (and making quite a few concessions) on February 28, and before that, prior to the 12-day war.

As the saying goes, "fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me." The Iranians are neither foolish nor cowardly. There will be no third time to be fooled. They will fight as long as the U.S. and Israel will and the U.S. has already blinked, at least twice.

Currently, the U.S. has committed to not targeting Iran's energy infrastructure. Israel is a different story. They will do what they usually do: bomb and destroy anything available, setting up their ultimate destruction. Iran has had to deal with Israel's meddling since 1947. They consider Israelites to be invaders, occupiers, and war criminals. Thus, Iran will continue to strike with ever increasing force until Israel is neutered... forever. That is the first thing one can fathom from the future a year from now. Israel will not exist in its current form and it will not be a threat to anybody in the region, except possibly itself.

As far as President Trump is concerned, he's acting more like a grifter than a leader. His routine is getting old. Make some kind of market moving announcement, place your bets, profit. Make a buck seems to be of more importance than "winning" against Iran. Trump can, and likely will, find a way to extricate the United States from the Middle East, call it a win, and move on. The caveat - even though now it appears the U.S. is losing - is that more troops are coming to the region. By the end of this week, expect either a major assault on Iran, targeting their infrastructure and making use of some 50-70,000 troops that are currently en route to the area, or, a continuation of troop and material build-up, leading to one last major strike within a few weeks, probably before the end of April.

By making a big show of U.S. firepower, Trump will - either very soon, like within a week's time, or, by the end of April - claim victory and begin to gradually pull back. His claim that Iran has been neutralized will conflict with conditions on the ground, but that doesn't matter to Trump, who controls the media even as he loses control of his own military.

Alongside the current conflict is Scott Ritter, currently in Moscow, speaking with Russian diplomats and other officials to position Russia as a mediator. The Russians are listening to him because Ritter has experience and they trust his judgement as a fair and honest actor, in deference to the sleazy tactics of Witkoff and Kushner.

What will the Middle East look like a year from now? Here are a few of the possibilities:

• Israel will be vastly diminished in military strength and barely functioning as a sovereign entity.
• The US will have withdrawn from the Middle East, leaving their former bases in disrepair and disarray.
• Iran will control the Strait of Hormuz; oil will flow to China, India, Japan, Phillipines, Australia, South Korea.
• The petrodollar will be replace by the petro-yuan.
• The Gulf states will make peace with Iran, and the region will be rebuilding in solidarity.
• President Trump will be facing impeachment after losing the midterms, but still grifting.
• There will be high inflation in the U.S.; stocks will be down 15-30%; gold and silver will soar.

or...

• Trump sees no way out, continues to commit troops, possibly institutes a draft.
• Chaos in the Middle East.
• Iran continues to fight, keeps the Strait of Homuz open to "freindly" nations, though transit is limited.
• Israel will be on its knees in any scenario.
• Inflation in the U.S. and Europe will be extreme.
• Many Americans will not pay heed to the government. Chaos in big cities; possible armed militias in rural areas.
• Oil will be well over $100 per barrel.
• Stocks will lose 40-70%. Gold and silver will hold their value or increase.

Overall, the future looks bleak for Israel no matter what happens. Even if Scott Ritter pulls off a miracle, like filling an open straight in a poker hand (no pun intended, but there it is), U.S. and Israeli influence in the Middle East will be vastly diminished. In one scenario, stocks hold most of their value; in the other, stocks lose most of their value. Gold and silver win either way.

At the Close, Tuesday, March 24, 2026:
Dow: 46,124.06, -84.41 (-0.18%)
NASDAQ: 21,761.89, -184.87 (-0.84%)
S&P 500: 6,556.37, -24.63 (-0.37%)
NYSE Composite: 21,971.30, +60.53 (+0.28%)

Market Gains Based on Grand Delusions Are Difficult to Sustain; U.S. Facing End of Empire Events as Talks with Iran are Proven False

It has become painfully obvious that President Trump will do, say, or tweet just about anything in order to get what he wants, be it money, oil, control, or power. Monday's assertion that talks with Iran had taken place over the weekend were absolutely false, his prevarication confirmed by Iranian officials who for weeks have been unwavering in their commitment to not engage in negotiations with the United States.

One can only guess what machinations are entertained by delusional megalomaniacs such as the current White House resident, but assuredly they are not likely consistent with the wishes of the American public, most of whom appear to have no stomach for military engagements and desire little more than peace and price relief in their daily routines.

Sadly, the American public is close to the bottom of the totem pole in terms of Trump's exceptional alternate reality, so cheaper gas or discounts on food staples are going to be temporary at best and unachievable long term, at worst.

What is apparent is Trump's lust for power. Speaking to reporters on Monday, the president suggested that shared control over the Strait of Hormuz with "the Ayatollah" has become an objective and the military may be employed to achieve that particular far-fetched goal. It's a fantasy only a crooked, self-absorbed individual could dream up, given that Iran has all but neutralized American bases in the region and holds a vastly superior geographical advantage over the region. The Strait of Hormuz borders Iran, and they appear to be reluctant to share dominance over the waterway with the United States or anybody else.

Of course, Trump could be bluffing or boasting, but there's a very real chance that he and the broan trust at the Pentagon have spun up some kind of military solution that would assure America's right to play policeman or toll operator in the Persian Gulf.

This is the sordid reality that the world must confront as the regional conflict slogs through its fourth week.

In economic terms, continued military operations in the Middle East are challenging to the declining Western nations. The United States has been badly damaged, even as Iran and Israel have taken the brunt of the missile strikes and random bombings. America's interests have been mostly confined to its military bases in Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere, so the financial fallout has been somewhat shielded from the general public and U.S. markets.

The bills are coming due, however. The United States cannot continue operating on a wartime footing with a dysfunctional government that is approaching $40 trillion in debt. The rest of the world sees through the financial escapades playing out with money created out of thin air attempting to maintain a hegemony that's been shattered. Should the United States and its main ally, Israel, achieve the objective of dominating trade in the region, they will be tasked with maintaining that control, so it is likely that any gains made will be fleeting, unsure, and subject to overthrow.

What the United States and Israel are demonstrating in plain view is the last gasps of empire. The aims of the two countries are not realistic and will continue to cause real pain for all involved until they are neutralized and sent packing.

Time is running short on the aggressors and the response from markets in the U.S. and Europe are unlikely to be long-lasting. The evidence is already being seen in stock futures Tuesday morning, which are dropping like rocks. A half hour before the opening bell, Dow futures are down 275 points, NASDAQ futures are off 176, and S&P futures have tumbled 35 points.

Trump and his cronies certainly made some serious scratch on Monday. Now they'll make more as market re-adjust.

At the Close, Monday, March 23, 2026:
Dow: 46,208.47, +631.00 (+1.38%)
NASDAQ: 21,946.76, +299.15 (+1.38%)
S&P 500: 6,581.00, +74.52 (+1.15%)
NYSE Composite: 21,910.77, +294.04 (+1.36%)

WEEKEND WRAP CONCLUDED: Trump Finds the Off-Ramp to 'Cut and Run' as Markets Reach Breaking Points

President Trump, ever the entertainer-in-chief has found the exit ramp he's been seeking to extricate himself and the United States from the worst military defeat in the country's history.

The Truth Social post from early Monday morning, Trump posted, yelling, in all CAPS:

I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP

Of course, this is absolute nonsense, intended to reach the Iranians (about 3:37 pm in Tehran), though the main targeted audience is in the U.S. and specifically, the people moving money around on Wall Street.

This comes on the heels of Saturday's post:

If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

The deadline Trump set was for Monday evening, around 8:00 pm ET. The post from this morning contradicts and makes the threat moot.

This post, on Friday night, exposed the hand Trump is playing:

We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran: (1) Completely degrading Iranian Missile Capability, Launchers, and everything else pertaining to them. (2) Destroying Iran’s Defense Industrial Base. (3) Eliminating their Navy and Air Force, including Anti Aircraft Weaponry. (4) Never allowing Iran to get even close to Nuclear Capability, and always being in a position where the U.S.A. can quickly and powerfully react to such a situation, should it take place. (5) Protecting, at the highest level, our Middle Eastern Allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and others. The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not! If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Trump will get none of what he's asking for from Iran, as they've shown no inclination to negotiate with the U.S. - as they've stated many ties already - but, he has established the U.S. position on the conflict in the Middle East, essentially signaling the end of U.S. involvement in the region, and, via Monday morning's post, a nearly immediate end to hostilities.

Of course, this directive does not include Israel, which is being left hung out to fend for itself against Iran, which has methodically destroyed much of Israel through some 80 or more waves of missile and draone attacks, the latest targeting the communities of Dimona and Arad, the largest near the center of Israel's sparsely populated Negev desert, demonstrating that they have the ability to strike Israel's Dimona nuclear plant at any time should they so choose.

Iran also demonstrated very clearly to America, Israel and the world that their missiles have a much longer range than previously thought when they sent two missiles at the military base of Diego Garcia, some 2,500 miles from Tehran on Friday. Though the missiles caused little damage and reportedly no injuries, the message sent by the Iranians was clear: they have enough range to hit targets in Europe.

Also, over the weekend, Iran shot down an F-15 fighter jet near the Strait of Hormuz.

This most recent activity arrives following unmistakable evidence that Iran has defeated the U.S. and Israel in no uncertain terms, blowing up U.S. bases in the region, severely damaging two aircraft carriers - USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford - shooting down at least six U.S. aircraft and shelling Israel's main cities of Haifa and Tel Aviv continuously. There's little doubt that Trump and his military and political advisors have seen enough, and, while raising the white flag of surrender remains out of the question, the decision to cut and run has been made, just in time for markets to open on Monday morning.

While its apparent that the U.S. has no will to fight to the end, it's also clear that the decision was made late last week, as markets began to enter danger zones. As of Friday's closing bell the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 9.11% off its February 10 high (50,188.14). The NASDAQ had dipped 9.61% from its October 29, 2025 high of 23,958.47. Markets were reaching dangerously close to "official" correction territory of -10%.

Additionally, WTI crude oil was approaching $100 per barrel and the average price of gas in the U.S. was near $4.00 ($3.93 Sunday).

Trump made his intentions to exit the theater of war clear with the Monday morning "truth", much of which was pure nonsense. Markets responded as expected. Crude oil sank from $101.30 to $89.08 within a matter of minutes. Dow futures, which were down some 400 points, streaked higher to up over 1,000 points. The same kind of moves were seen in NASDAQ futures, up more than 500 points, and S& futures, up more than 130 points.

Without a doubt, Trump and his billionaire buddies are making serious bank on these moves. It's obvious that President Trump and his cabal of criminals favor money over people's lives. As disgusting as that may sound, it is obvious to all but those blinded by the MAGA "never wrong" crowd.

America has been defeated. It has lost its prestige in the world. Whatever gains are made by pulling out of a war that it started will be tainted by the blood of the dead.

As far as Israel is concerned, best of luck. Iran will likely destroy most of the country and render its military useless.

WEEKEND WRAP: Trump 6D Chess? We See What You Did There in the Middle East; FULL REPORT MONDAY

Editor's Note: This is a condensed version of the usual Weekend Wrap due to time limitations, fast-changing narratives and the NCAA Men's Basketball Championship Tournament. Full commentary will be posted on Monday, March 23. - FR

There has been a major signal shift coming from the White House and Trump's latest "truths" and "tweets" leaning favorably towards a cut and run from the Middle East without admitting defeat. Because this issue begs for more clarity - and because college basketball in March takes precedence over everything - a fuller picture should emerge by Monday morning. Money Daily will have a full report prior to the U.S. market open on Monday.

Stocks

Another bummer week for stocks:
Dow: -981.00 (-2.11%)
NASDAQ: -457.75 (-2.07%)
S&P 500: -125.71 (-1.90%)
NYSE Composite: -434.21 (-1.97%)
Dow Transports: -117.17 (-0.66%)

Major averages were all down close to two percent on the week. Not a coincidence. As cynical as commentary on the stock market has become, there's little surprise that stocks stopped out just short of a -10% decline.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
02/13/2026	3.72	3.71	3.73	3.68	3.70	3.59	3.42
02/20/2026	3.72	3.73	3.74	3.69	3.71	3.61	3.51
02/27/2026	3.74	3.73	3.73	3.67	3.67	3.60	3.48
03/06/2026	3.75	3.74	3.72	3.69	3.67	3.66	3.55
03/13/2026	3.75	3.74	3.71	3.72	3.69	3.70	3.66
03/20/2026	3.73	3.71	3.72	3.74	3.73	3.79	3.80

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
02/13/2026	3.40	3.43	3.61	3.81	4.04	4.64	4.69
02/20/2026	3.48	3.50	3.65	3.85	4.08	4.66	4.72
02/27/2026	3.38	3.39	3.51	3.72	3.97	4.57	4.64
03/06/2026	3.56	3.59	3.72	3.93	4.15	4.74	4.77
03/13/2026	3.73	3.74	3.87	4.07	4.28	4.89	4.90
03/20/2026	3.88	3.90	4.01	4.20	4.39	4.97	4.96

Commentary Monday...

Spreads:

2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51
11/7: +56
11/14: +52
11/21: +55
11/28: +55
12/5: +58
12/12: +67
12/19: +68
12/26: +68
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61
11/7: +69
11/14: +70
11/21: +68
11/28: +62
12/5: +97
12/12: +109
12/19: +111
12/26: +111
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123

Oil/Gas

WTI Crude Oil finished the week at $98.09, slightly higher than last Friday's close at $97.20

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. is $3.94.

Bitcoin

This week: $68,913.54
Last week: $71,582.53
2 weeks ago: $67,310.05
6 months ago: $112,387.70
One year ago: $84,294.35
Five years ago: $55,870.88

Commentary Monday.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 66.29; last week: 62.31

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 2/20: $5,108.34
Gold price 2/27: $5,296.40
Gold price 3/6: $5,181.30
Gold price 3/13: $5,023.10
Gold price 3/20: $4,492.00

Silver price 2/20: $84.57
Silver price 2/27: $94.39
Silver price 3/6: $84.69
Silver price 3/13: $80.64
Silver price 3/20: $67.81

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 2/20: $5,130.00
Gold 2/27: $5,278.05
Gold 3/6: $5,144.28
Gold 3/13: $5,022.11
Gold 3/20: $4,494.00

Silver 2/20: $84.57
Silver 2/27: $93.82
Silver 3/6: $84.33
Silver: 3/13: $80.60
Silver 3/20: $67.79

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	80.00	93.00	86.65	87.50
1 oz silver bar:	69.99	92.74	81.72	80.55
1 oz gold coin:	4,627.15	4,867.15	4,724.31	4,702.95
1 oz gold bar:	4,647.15	4,891.66	4,722.66	4,704.29

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) continued to decline through Sunday, to $84.11, a loss of $10.97 from the March 15 price of $95.08 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

More to come on Monday...

At the Close, Friday, March 20, 2026:
Dow: 45,577.47, -443.96 (-0.96%)
NASDAQ: 21,647.61, -443.08 (-2.01%)
S&P 500: 6,506.48, -100.01 (-1.51%)
NYSE Composite: 21,616.73, -324.30 (-1.48%)

For the Week:
Dow: -981.00 (-2.11%)
NASDAQ: -457.75 (-2.07%)
S&P 500: -125.71 (-1.90%)
NYSE Composite: -434.21 (-1.97%)
Dow Transports: -117.17 (-0.66%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Who Is Winning?; Stocks in Correction Mode; Gold, Silver Begin to Recover; Oil Approaches $100, U.S. Average Gas Price is $3.93

Whatever one's opinion on the War in the Middle East, one thing that stands out is the joint effort by Israeli and U.S. governments and their lackeys in the mainstream media to paint the narrative in a manner that is - to say the least - not entirely disgusting and repugnant.

Worldwide, people are supposed to believe that making war is an overall good thing for everybody. It's not. Things get blown up. People die. How that equates to something good, as in "short term pain for long term gain", takes an exceptional leap of faith... and stupidity.

People are also led to believe that Iran is an evil, terrorist state when it's not. Also, the U.S. and Israel are winning, an exceptionally false account, being that most of the U.S. bases in the Middle East have been destroyed, some beyond repair, much of Israel has been mercilessly struck by more than 50 waves of missile attacks with extensive death and damage, the U.S. Navy won't get anywhere near Iran for fear of being blown out of the water, the Strait of Hormuz has been essentially closed to commercial traffic for nearly three weeks, crude oil is approaching $100/barrel, the average price for a gallon of gas in the U.S. is $3.93, and president Trump is asking for $200 billion more for a military "escapade" that's costing about $1 billion a day of money the U.S. does not have and will have to borrow.

Nobody is winning at this point. It's more like posturing.

At the start, this war was supposed to be over in a few days, a week, then two weeks, then four, and now, maybe by September. Why anybody believes the people promoting this nonsense is a mystery. Truth is, most don't.

Beyond the ravages of war, there are other matters to consider. America's stature as a reliable partner and honest negotiator has been permanently destroyed. Trump asked NATO countries for assistance (which, by the way, would not be needed if the U.S. were winning) in their war effort. The answer was a loud, unanimous, NO.

As far as markets are concerned, the slaughter in precious metals is a textbook example of manipulation. During times of war, prices for gold and silver always have gone up. Not this time... because it's different.

What isn't different is he effect on stocks. All the major indices are lower.

From recent all-time highs for each, as of Thursday's close, the Dow is down 8.30%. The NASDAQ is down 7.80%. The S&P 500 is down 5.32%. At least two of the major indices were about to fall into "official" correction territory - down 10% - yesterday, until Benjamin Netanyahu magically appeared to claim that he's alive and that the war is being won. Hurrah!

This is going to get worse. All of the majors are looking at a fourth straight week of losses. Through Thursday's close, the Dow is down 537 points. The NASDAQ is down 14 points and the S&P is down 18.

Futures are indicating a soft open. Gold and silver are recovering.

Total U.S. government debt passed $39 trillion this week.

Winning seems a bit overrated.

At the Close, Thursday, March 19, 2026:
Dow: 46,021.43, -203.72 (-0.44%)
NASDAQ: 22,090.69, -61.73 (-0.28%)
S&P 500: 6,606.49, -18.21 (-0.27%)
NYSE Composite: 21,941.03, -55.57 (-0.25%)