By this time next week, many Americans will be worn out from a celebratory weekend filled with swimming pools, marching bands, hot dogs, hamburgers, and a host of adult beverages.
But first, there's four days of trading ahead.
Stocks
Heading into another four-day week with the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence celebrated on Friday, July 3, the NASDAQ suffered its worst week since "Liberation Day", back in April of 2025. The NASDAQ, led by stocks in the chip and AI tech sectors, were most affected. The index lost 4.6% over the week. The S&P dropped by nearly two percent and the selling seems not to be nearly over.
The Dow Industrials held up much better, actually showing a gain of 0.60% on the week. Investors of all stripes must begin asking tough questions concerning their holdings, not the least of which being at what point does one take profits and wait for better signals, either to the upside or even further down?
Plenty of people in passive holdings like 401k, IRAs, or portfolios with long-term horizons, aren't likely to make rash moves at this juncture, viewing the current pullback little more than an annoyance, after which stocks will return to their usual upward slope. History proves them often correct in that regard.
On the bearish side of the argument are value investors who see valuations on the entire range of AI and chip-related stocks to be at extremes, with a correction or worse to be expected. The kinds of watershed events they envision refer to crashes like 1929, 2000, and 2008, though few have the temerity to step up and play short. Most short-sellers in recent years have been crushed and carried out of their positions on stretchers. Overall, the current conditions remain fluid with an unequal share of potential disasters on the horizon, including resumption of war (Iran), continuance of war (Ukraine), rising unemployment due to deployment of AI in industries ranging from banking to publishing to retail. In the meantime, Wall Street has convinced itself that the Kevin Warsh Federal Reserve is going to raise rates to fend off inflation, though there is growing evidence the recent spate of higher prices at both the wholesale and retail levels was largely a cause of the Middle East disruptions, with energy costs leading the statistics.
Such trap doors and potholes are always around. Most often, markets tend to sidestep or ignore them in favor of stock profits.
With the second quarter coming to a close on Tuesday, June 30, first quarter earnings reports have been all but exhausted. Beginning after the Independence Day weekend, companies will start reporting second quarter results, led by banks and airlines, the week of July 6-12.
A fairly quiet week in terms of economic events is ahead. Tuesday's Case-Shiller housing report and JOLTS job openings report on Tuesday. Wednesday's data includes the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI, the latter being usually more accurate. Weekly energy data from the EIA is also released on Wednesday. The big event will be the BLS monthly employment report for June, though recently, these reports have been discounted with overall U.S. employment sluggish and static. Contrasting with the rumors of rate hikes at the Fed, another weak reading would offer the opposite projection and be cheered loudly by the usual horde of rate-lowering cheerleaders.
Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/22/2026 | 3.72 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 3.68 | 3.78 | 3.79 | 3.86 |
| 05/29/2026 | 3.72 | 3.71 | 3.71 | 3.69 | 3.78 | 3.78 | 3.79 |
| 06/05/2026 | 3.71 | 3.71 | 3.71 | 3.78 | 3.78 | 3.81 | 3.88 |
| 06/12/2026 | 3.69 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.78 | 3.79 | 3.82 | 3.86 |
| 06/18/2026 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 3.74 | 3.83 | 3.85 | 3.92 | 4.00 |
| 06/26/2026 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.75 | 3.83 | 3.89 | 3.94 | 3.94 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/22/2026 | 4.13 | 4.18 | 4.27 | 4.41 | 4.56 | 5.06 | 5.07 |
| 05/29/2026 | 3.98 | 4.06 | 4.13 | 4.27 | 4.45 | 4.98 | 4.99 |
| 06/05/2026 | 4.17 | 4.22 | 4.29 | 4.41 | 4.55 | 5.03 | 5.01 |
| 06/12/2026 | 4.09 | 4.12 | 4.21 | 4.34 | 4.48 | 4.98 | 4.97 |
| 06/18/2026 | 4.19 | 4.19 | 4.23 | 4.34 | 4.46 | 4.91 | 4.90 |
| 06/26/2026 | 4.07 | 4.09 | 4.12 | 4.23 | 4.38 | 4.87 | 4.87 |
Treasury yields continue to trend lower, thwarting the conviction of many analysts who insist the Fed will raise rates to fend off another round of inflation. What they should be more worried about is the continuing growth of the money supply, a condition that the now-less-transparent Fed might deal with without the usual fanfare, though any decisions at the Fed will be slow and careful and not telegraphed to market participants.
The treasury curve is orderly and upward sloping, the era of inversion put well in the past. Spreads - +31 basis points on 2s-10s, and +117 on full spectrum remain within recent ranges. If anything, the yield curve should begin to slope higher or remain roughly the same. There's no signs of panic either from de-dollarization or fear of rising rates and with Warsh committed to keeping his cards close to his chest, a more stable condition is likely to present itself over the coming months.
Truth be told, there's probably a better chance that the Fed lowers the federal funds target rate over the next four to six months rather than raise it. Such a move would steepen the curve and help out the federal government by reducing interest payments, which have ballooned into a major solvency problem.
Spreads:
2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
Oil/Gas
August WTI crude futures closed out the week at $70.24on the NY Mercantile Exchange, continuing to price lower on the back of the deal struck between the United States and Iran, ending hostilities in the region. The price of WTI crude was $76.54 the prior week. The parties have been meeting in Geneva, Switzerland over the past week, trying to forge some kind of working framework for the Gulf region that precludes bombing each other.
Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $3.88 last week and $3.81 this week, the lowest prices since the war with Iran began more then three months ago.
Reserves have been substantially drained by major economies around the world to keep prices under control, a practice that will - or should - reverse once regular oil flows are reestablished, a process that most believe could take months. A somewhat elevated price for oil and gas at the pump may remain in place through the summer months, though certainly not at levels seen during the war/ceasefire period.
Gas prices in key states:
California (leader): $5.39 (-0.33)
Washington: $5.16 (-0.22)
Indiana (lowest): $3.22
Oklahoma : $3.30 (-0.06)
Mississippi: $3.42 (-0.10)
Florida: $3.78 (+0.18)
Illinois: $4.11 (-0.04)
Pennsylvania: $4.01 (-0.08)
New York: $4.10 (-0.11)
Maryland: $3.74 (-0.06)
Michigan: $4.09 (+0.11)
Texas: $3.24 (-0.16)
Georgia: $3.54 (-0.06)
On Sunday, June 28th, there are eleven (11) states with average prices above $4.00, with 37 below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.45) and Alaska ($4.90), with just two above $5 (California, Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past five weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging well below $4.00 ($3.24-3.60) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region a close second, prices ranging from $3.50 to $3.64. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest.
Bitcoin
This week: $60,194.49
Last week: $64,068.87
2 weeks ago: $64,048.96
6 months ago: $87,687.36
One year ago: $107,342.20
Five years ago: $34,681.76
Bitcoin managed to slump once again over the past week, hitting fresh lows in the $58,187 range before rebounding back to current, weak-kneed, levels. The price of a bitcoin at $60,000 is nothing at all special about the mystical pseudo-money that was all the rage just a year ago.
It's lost most of its luster, plummeting by more than half from the early October 2025 peak, down 31% year-to-date and making a five-years-ago investment no longer a double. One might conclude, other than hiding money from authorities (which, incidentally, it isn't very good at), there's no good argument for holding bitcoin at all, especially since the U.S. government - and others around the world - require disclosure on tax forms of any crypto holdings.
Not withstanding bitcoiners penchant for breaking the law when ostensibly, even as Charles Dickens so eloquently phrased in Oliver Twist, "...the law is an ass," of which other assets does the IRS demand an accounting? Baseball cards? No. Cash? No. Gold? No. Silver? Come on, let's get real.
The government wants to know what you're doing out there in crypto-land because it competes with US dollars, and, unlike baseball cards, gold, or silver, it can be tracked, traced, and easily confiscated.
If anybody discovers a good rationale for playing in the crypto markets other than mere speculation, please call 1-800-ImAnAss.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 69.12; last week: 64.13
Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 5/29: $4,569.90
Gold price 6/5: $4,353.90
Gold price 6/12: $4,239.90
Gold price 6/18: $4,172.90
Gold price 6/26: $4,103.00
Silver price 5/29: $75.58
Silver price 6/5: $68.00
Silver price 6/12: $68.12
Silver price 6/18: $65.38
Silver price 6/26: $59.60
SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 5/29: $4,538.94
Gold 6/5: $4,327.57
Gold 6/12: $4,218.23
Gold 6/18: $4,210.00
Gold 6/26: $4,089.00
Silver 5/29: $75.27
Silver 6/5: $67.83
Silver 6/12: $68.00
Silver 6/18: $65.65
Silver: 6/26: $59.16
Notably, amid the deconstruction of the gold/silver complex at the hands of the COMEX and LBMA, the gold:silver ratio has sprung higher, posting a figure of 69.12, quite a difference from the last week in January, at silver's peak when the ratio slumped below 50.
With the ratio once again elevated, there are three choices for silver buyers and they are the usual: Buy, Sell, or Hold.
Those with silver in hand have optionality working for them. Considering many have a cost basis somewhere in the range of $10 to $20, holding works well, though both buying and selling can be put into play depending on sentiment and time horizon. One might, for example, choose to sell some of one's holdings if they believe silver's price is to be further eroded, though the proper time for paring down the stack would have been a better prospect four to six months ago.
Buying makes sense should one adheres to the school of thought that the price of silver has over-corrected and is indeed poised for a move higher. Indications from the GSR (gold:silver ratio) are supportive of that line of thinking. Adding, say, 100 ounces to a stack of 1000 with a basis of $17, would move the basis higher, to 20.91 for all 1100 ounces, still highly profitable and even moreso should the price actually rise and hold at higher levels. Similar directional bets can be made with gold, which seems to have bottomed, though one can never be too sure of what the criminal counterfeiters have in mind.
No doubt, precious metals remain overall in a buyer's market, with spot prices the lowest in close to eight months.
It needs to be understood that 2024 and 2025 were banner years for both metals and a pullback was a natural occurrence. How much further precious metals will be pressured is a function of the willingness of the LBMA and COMEX to continue their outrageous price suppression tactics, seemingly never to end until the dollar is dust, fiat currencies are extinguished and physical demand flourishes. That may be a long time coming. In the meantime, stocking up at low levels at a regular tempo using dollar cost averaging or other quiet accumulation practices cannot be criticized even if prices continue to trend lower. After all, gold and silver are money, and money in one's own hand is an unbeatable strategy for wealth accumulation.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 oz silver coin: | 59.60 | 89.48 | 74.86 | 72.35 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 67.00 | 79.00 | 72.76 | 72.18 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 4228.42 | 4367.70 | 4276.97 | 4266.18 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 4246.86 | 4360.22 | 4296.73 | 4283.60 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) continued to decline, dropping to $73.04 on June 28, a loss of $5.94 per troy ounce, from the June 21 price of $78.98, one of the most severe one-week losses in recent months.
WEEKEND WRAP
The United States has managed to remain an international entity for 250 years, which, to most established nations, would be considered a good start. Despite being somewhat of an adolescent on the global stage, the 250-year anniversary is worth celebrating.
At the Close, Friday, June 26, 2026:
Dow: 51,876.11, -44.51 (-0.09%)
NASDAQ: 25,297.62, -60.99 (-0.24%)
S&P 500: 7,354.02, -3.47 (-0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 23,689.23, +78.51 (+0.33%)
For the Week:
Dow: +311.41 (+0.60%)
NASDAQ: -1220.31 (-4.60%)
S&P 500: -146.56 (-1.95%)
NYSE Composite: +189.49 (+0.81%)
Dow Transports: +187.94 (+0.87%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
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