Government, always and everywhere, are obnoxious. President Trump is merely the most recent manifestation of bad behavior.
Whether the ruling powers of a nation, territory, tribe, state, city, county or any other superficial construct created by people with the power to create sovereignty be cloaked in the colors of democracy, socialism, communism, fascism or any other "ism", the goals are the same: to Thwart the will of the people, to steal their wealth and resources, and to enslave working men and women, their ilk, and their progeny.
The ultimate aim of government everywhere is to enrich those in positions of power by taxation and confiscation of other people's wealth via laws, regulations, tariffs and doctrines. They tax and regulate income, property, and resources endlessly, and by this means drain the wealth of entire populations gradually, but ultimately effectively.
Take the United States for example. At all levels, government taxes, borrows, and spends the wealth of the submissive population to further their own ends, pocketing a percentage here, a fee there, a regulation or tariff everywhere. As government has grown into a self-inflating, self-perpetuating behemoth, its minions, the so-called "public servants" are rewarded with salaries and benefits that far exceed those enjoyed by the public. They are paid to carry water for the elitist elected officials and do their bidding at the expense of the people they are ostensibly supposed to be serving.
They are all parasites, otherwise unemployable and worthless, having no skills other beyond those of common con men or paper-pushers and have the power of law and doctrine to enforce their will over those of the general public.
Any person living within the confines of government - and that would be every man, woman, and child in the world outside of aboriginal tribespeople in far away places - would better their lot in life with an understanding that the government is not there to protect them, nor to aid them in any manner, but to sublimate their will and use their labor and capital to further their own intentions.
One would not be blind to the government's reach into every aspect of their lives: how they live, what they buy, with whom they associate. One would be well-served to keep government at arm's length or further away from one's private affairs, of which government has no business. The goal of the empowered individual would be wise to be silent as to one's holdings or wealth, measured in property, well-being, and capacity to live free, to keep what is rightfully theirs, unencumbered and unknown to the government monstrosity.
It's a tough task that takes a man or woman's full life and effort, but it essential to ensure proper prosperity and liberty.
Americans and most everybody living within the modern constructs of advanced societies need to be aware that government will take a generally large percentage of one's wealth if allowed to do so. Ordinary people are cajoled and encouraged to engage in "wealth-building" in the institutionalized mechanisms of banking, stocks, bonds, annuities, insurance, and properties, all of which, beyond basic personal and real property, are unnecessary and a means by which the government taxes and confiscates wealth.
Avoidance of these accepted, annoying nuisances provides a pathway to economic and personal freedom.
Real property, collectibles of value, precious metals, and profitable private business operations are essential to well-being.
The tropes promoted by governments, media, and their salespeople are corrosive, subject to vast mis-valuation, and confiscatable.
Stocks
Who gets played?
The NASDAQ composite has finished positive in 19 of the past 23 sessions.
After having risen 13 out of 15 sessions from the end of March, the Dow Transportation Average finished negative seven of the last eight sessions.
Dip buyers were handsomely rewarded. Overall, it's a rotten game. Those who choose to play only at the margins, via buy and hold tactical strategies, are allowed a free ride on the stock market roller coaster. Stock specificity and allocation allotments are mild tolls of the passive investor, those whose only worry is having enough to last until their ultimate demise. Willingly trapped into the system, they facilitate the government's ultimate tax skimming superstructure.
Good doggies. Now, go lay down.
The Shiller PE ratio (CAPE) stood at 41.06 at the close of trading Friday, a level second only to the level of 44.19 reached at the peak of the dotcom spike in December 1999. The financial apparatus supporting such extremes is well aware of the incredible gap between price and value and will continue the crusade to ever more unsustainable levels. The game goes on. The financialization of the economy is nearly complete; the welfare/warfare state in control.
For those still drooling at the font of fiat, the week ahead will be loaded to the gills with earnings reports.
Monday: (before open) Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH), Tyson (TSN), Berkshire-Hathaway (BRK.B); (after close) Pinterest (PINS), Transocean (RIG), Palantir (PLTR)
Tuesday: (before open) Pfizer (PFE), PayPal (PYPL), Marathon (MPC), Shopify (SHOP); (after close) AMC (AMC), Strategy (MSTR), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Wednesday: (before open) KraftHeinz (KHC), Uber (UBER), CVS Health (CVS), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Walt Disney (DIS); (after close) Applovin (APP), Snap Inc. (SNAP), Beyond Meat (BYND), Dutch Bros. (BROS), Coinbase (COIN)
Thursday: (before open) McDonald's (MCD), Celsius (CELH); (after close) Affirm (AFRM), Opendoor (OPEN)
Friday: (before open) Enbridge (ENB), Wendy's (WEN)
Friday, May 8, the BLS trots out the latest made-up employment numbers with the April Non-farm Payroll Report (begging the question of what is farm employment looking like?).
Volatility continues, upside momentum is nearing conclusion. "Sell in May and Go Away" motif may be a suitable motif, urging profit-taking.
One final note: Spirit Airlines, with a business model catering to low-income fliers, has gone bankrupt. A lesson for us all.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/27/2026 | 3.74 | 3.73 | 3.72 | 3.73 | 3.72 | 3.75 | 3.77 |
| 04/03/2026 | 3.71 | 3.73 | 3.73 | 3.71 | 3.71 | 3.73 | 3.72 |
| 04/10/2026 | 3.67 | 3.69 | 3.70 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 3.72 | 3.70 |
| 04/17/2026 | 3.69 | 3.70 | 3.73 | 3.70 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 3.64 |
| 04/24/2026 | 3.69 | 3.72 | 3.71 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 3.71 | 3.67 |
| 05/01/2026 | 3.71 | 3.71 | 3.70 | 3.68 | 3.76 | 3.71 | 3.73 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/27/2026 | 3.88 | 3.94 | 4.06 | 4.25 | 4.44 | 4.99 | 4.98 |
| 04/03/2026 | 3.84 | 3.88 | 3.99 | 4.17 | 4.35 | 4.91 | 4.91 |
| 04/10/2026 | 3.81 | 3.80 | 3.94 | 4.12 | 4.31 | 4.89 | 4.91 |
| 04/17/2026 | 3.71 | 3.72 | 3.84 | 4.04 | 4.26 | 4.85 | 4.88 |
| 04/24/2026 | 3.78 | 3.80 | 3.92 | 4.10 | 4.31 | 4.88 | 4.91 |
| 05/01/2026 | 3.88 | 3.91 | 4.02 | 4.20 | 4.39 | 4.96 | 4.97 |
Now that Chairman Jerome Powell is done and gone after Wednesday's "stand down" on interest rate policy, the 30-year yield is getting darn close to five percent. Once it heads beyond that, some little dose of non-reality will be needed to "calm markets."
Any rational investor would likely believe the yield on 30-year paper loaned to a government that is nearly $40 trillion in debt and can't stop spending should be closer to eight percent, or, a loan not made. Due diligence matters, and the U.S. government is a deadbeat. In 30 years, it's likely to be even still dead and more beaten. Like everything else in fantasy finance, the 30-year is a trade, based solely on what the underlying security will bring in three to six months. Nobody in their rigt mind would hold government paper at under five percent for the duration.
Everything within the treasury yield curve is cockeyed. If one can get 3.71% risk-free on a one-month bill, why in the world risk anything for any longer unless the yield is significantly higher? The answer lies in the full spectrum spread from 30 days out to 30 years. It reached +126 this week, a nominal high, and appears to be pointing higher, so, when Kevin Warsh becomes the new Fed head and begins lowering rates to accommodate more spending by the government (Trump loves low rates (and inflation)), the spread will expand to probably well beyond 200 basis points (2.00%), which would satisfy the desires of both the government and the heavy money in the 30-year market. Government borrowing on the short end at less than three percent and 30-year bonds at 5.50% gets the juice flowing in exactly the right direction to grease both Wall Street and Federal .gov machinery at the same time. What a world.
BTW: the 2s-10s spread, this week at +51, has become meaningless untill it approaches zero. While it's not even close yet, the trend is your friend. Inversion by December appears baked into the yield cake.
Spreads:
2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
Oil/Gas
WTI Crude Oil finished the week in New York at $102.50, just a little higher than last week's close of $94.88. Two weeks ago it was $84.00. The high this week was $110.09. If President Trump doesn't come to his senses soon and get the hell out of the Middle East, end the moronic, just-for-show "blockade", WTI crude will ramp up to $150.
Some people, including many prominent financial and political pundits, seem to believe that Trump cares about the fate of the Republican party in the November midterms and will do everything he can to lower the price of oil and gas in the U.S. to ensure majorities in the House and Senate.
This is a dangerous fallacy. Trump could care less about Republicans or Democrats or the House and Senate. He's a lame duck interested in padding his already grotesque bank account and little more. Getting the price of oil out of the $55-65 range was a priority and he's already done that. Keeping crude well above $100 and gas closer to $5.00 than to $3.50 is next on his agenda, paying off political dues to the people who matter, heavily invested in energy commodities and the companies that gouge serve American drivers.
Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.07 last week and $4.45 this week. Americans are getting lubed, good and hard, and without so much as a reach-around. Thank you President Bone-spurs.
Prices in key states:
California (leader): $6.10 (+0.16) Yippie! for the Golden State!
Washington: $5.66 (+0.22)
Oklahoma (lowest): $3.85 (+0.38)
Florida: $3.34 (+0.42)
Illinois: $4.93 (+0.62)
Pennsylvania: $4.52 (+0.37)
New York: $4.43 (+0.29)
Maryland: $4.26 (+0.27)
Michigan: $4.87 (+0.86)
Texas: $3.89 (+0.26)
Georgia: $3.83 (+0.24)
On Sunday, May 3rd, there are 13 states with average prices below $4.00, and 35 above the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.60, -0.04) and Alaska ($5.04, +0.29), and three above $5 (Nevada, Washington, Oregon), and one above $6 (California). The Midwest and Southeast have equalized over the past two weeks as the lowest-priced regions, with prices averaging roughly the same in states like South Dakota, Iowa and Kansas as opposed to Tennessee, Georgia and Mississippi.
Bitcoin
This week: $78,694.80
Last week: $77,941.15
2 weeks ago: $75,748.31
6 months ago: $106,774.80
One year ago: $95,816.94
Five years ago: $58,815.15
Crypto is absolute trash. Witness the dumping by the Trump family in their own meme coins and various business ventures in the space. Now would be a good time to sell, if you're dumb enough to have any.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 61.23; last week: 62.27
Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 4/3: $4,702.70
Gold price 4/10: $4,771.00
Gold price 4/17: $4,849.40
Gold price 4/24: $4,725.40
Gold price 5/1: $4,625.60
Silver price 4/3: $73.17
Silver price 4/10: $76.03
Silver price 4/17: $81.58
Silver price 4/24: $76.19
Silver price 5/1: $75.84
SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 4/3: $4,677.28
Gold 4/10: $4,751.68
Gold 4/17: $4,833.56
Gold 4/24: $4,709.27
Gold 5/1: $4,612.97
Silver 4/3: $73.02
Silver 4/10: $75.95
Silver: 4/17: $80.75
Silver 4/24: $75.63
Silver 5/1: $75.34
Stackers and bugs are still getting shafted by the COMEX/LBMA riggers, a condition that appears to be nearing an end, though the interested parties are sure to not go down without a fight of some significance. Many complaints are being lodged by individual sellers not getting anything near spot for their holdings at dealers. Many do better on eBay, though the 15-20% vig negates much of the profit.
The physical market is sending a clear signal to hold. Buying, near, at, or above spot is probably OK, given a long enough time horizon. Otherwise, buying scrap or items containing gold and silver, like watches, jewelry, silverware, trinkets, etc. at estate and garage sales is becoming a buyer's market if one knows what they're doing. People who are selling are either desperate or stupid or both, so buying well below spot on a meltdown value basis can be fun and extremely profitable. Getting the loot is just beginning to be a grand game.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 oz silver coin: | 76.00 | 96.75 | 85.58 | 85.53 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 81.00 | 91.61 | 87.24 | 86.55 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 4687.60 | 4954.98 | 4795.08 | 4794.99 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 4804.98 | 4935.11 | 4844.05 | 4839.79 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell for a second straight week, to $86.23, a loss of $1.71 from the April 26 price of $87.94 per troy ounce.
WEEKEND WRAP
Governments suck, and the current ones, with tax rates, when one considers all degrees of the totality of income, property, sales, and hidden excise taxes (gas, phone, all kinds of services) well over 40-50% of one's gross income, suck very much harder. The insane levels of money going to government will bankrupt what's left of the middle class and begin to wreak havoc on the final 10% of top earners.
Inflation is about to explode higher. Keep what's yours. Let the government kill itself. Don’t go down with it.
At the Close, Friday, May 1, 2026:
Dow: 49,499.27, -152.87 (-0.31%)
NASDAQ: 25,114.44, +222.13 (+0.89%)
S&P 500: 7,230.12, +21.11 (+0.29%)
NYSE Composite: 23,041.15, -103.50 (-0.45%)
For the Week:
Dow: +268.56 (+0.55%)
NASDAQ: +277.84 (+1.12%)
S&P 500: +65.04 (+0.91%)
NYSE Composite: +106.60 (+0.46%)
Dow Transports: -273.98 (-1.41%)
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The order of the day is outrage.
As if the world needed more bare bones barbarism from the United States, President Trump posted on Truth Social - complete with the photo at right - the following this morning:
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