Unfinished Business: Stocks Seek Reconciliation with New Realities in Persian Gulf and at Federal Reserve; Fighting Between Israel and Hezbollah Escalates

Wrapping up a truly memorable week, U.S. equity, options, and bond markets appear to have some unfinished business on a quad-witching Friday.

Adjusting to renewed free flow of oil and other essential commodities (helium, urea, natgas to name a few) from the Persian Gulf and the new paradigm lacking forward guidance at the Fed, Friday presents as a day to cash in, cash out, and reposition for what's to come, which, by the current looks of things, is a very speculative bet on the future.

The array options and futures positions in stocks, indices, oil, and other commodities is wide and vast, with winners and losers on both sides of various ledgers. Anybody who was long oil is reaching for the laxatives while shorts are dancing in the streets. Stocks, especially those favored in the chip sector and among the Mag7, may be looking at gains that might have been larger just a few days or weeks ago, and must close out those positions post haste.

Along with stock futures, gold and silver spot prices are reacting negatively to the return to a semi-normal macro condition. There are a variety of views and presumptions about the immediate direction of flows, the predominant one being an adjustment pain period that was held off by the drawdown of crude stockpiles that now looks to tighten considerably after the major powers in the oil patch have played their hands and will be facing shortages over the next few months, suggesting higher prices for crude as countries bid to rebuild reserves.

This is, of course, a short term position. Oil prices will rise, then fall, if the peace at the Strait of Hormuz remains intact. There's a considerable faction thinking that condition will not last long, especially after Israel (the wild card in the process) and Hezbollah engaged in heavy conflict overnight. According to reports, Israel launched missile attacks at various locations in southern Lebanon. Israel remains in its bellicose position and commitment to continued aggression against Hezbollah forces in Lebanon and the U.S. apparently has lost control over its proxy, failing to restrain the escalations of Israel. The market is sensing a troubled situation which could derail the fragile peace. Already, Iran has failed ot send a delegation to Geneva, Switzerland for the first round of negotiations. Israel and Hezbollah could scotch the entire process.

Not withstanding the military situation in Lebanon and Israel, traders seem nervous about the entire situation. Unless the proxies of the U.S. and Iran are reigned in, the peace process remains at risk and other factors that have inspired traders to sned stocks to extreme valuations may have run their courses. The AI revolution that has fueled the current rally is cracking, with hyperscaler deals breaking down and questions over the long-term viability of AI business models continue to emerge, with some dour outlooks.

With under an hour to the opening bell, stock futures are collapsing under the weight of dangerous uncertainty and increasing volatility into the quad-witching session. Dow futures are off by 185 points; S&P futures are down 50, and NASDAQ futures are losing 164 points. Gold and silver are also down more than one percent from Thursday's settlement. Crude oil prices are elevated, though not to an alarming degree. WTI is still holding well under $80/barrel.

For the week, as of Thursday's close, the Dow is ahead by 362 points, the NASDAQ is up 629, and the S&P has a gain of 69 points.

The setup for Friday appears to be very knee-jerky and unlikely to be a forecast for longer term outlooks because, if Israel and Lebanon continue to engage, the impact on the flow of oil out of the Gulf may still be minimal. Both Iran and the U.S. are well aware that control of their proxy forces is at best, minimal, so there may be room for understanding and patching up the negotiations, though complete resolution still seems to be a distant hope.

At the Close, Thursday, June 18, 2026:
Dow: 51,564.70, +72.15 (+0.14%)
NASDAQ: 26,517.93, +496.28 (+1.91%)
S&P 500: 7,500.58, +80.48 (+1.08%)
NYSE Composite: 23,499.74, +29.98 (+0.13%)

Well Done, Mr. Warsh; New Fed Chair Sticks to Principles, Does Not Tip Off Press, Traders to Future Policy in First FOMC Press Conference

Taking the podium for the first time as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh stuck to his premiss that the Fed should not telegraph future policy decision, deflecting questions from a press corps eager for any kind of tip-off or suggestion over what might occur at the July and subsequent FOMC meetings.

Warsh appeared calm and fully in control of the environment at the press conference, breaking ground with five task forces assigned to examine various aspects of the Fed's makeup and operations while also breaking with a short-lived tradition favored by his predecessors, Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell, of supplying hints or leading statements that revealed the future direction of rate policy.

Even the shortened version of the public statement displayed a new course of action. The statement was tight and terse:

The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:

The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.

Certain participants in the stock and bond markets may have suffered a perplexity moment after reading the four-paragraph press release while wondering when the chairman would tip off markets for some of the usual front-running of policy. It didn't happen as Warsh repeatedly swatted down reporters' questions about potential policy moves. About the only thing wrong with Warsh's remarks was his bad haircut. He needs to upgrade to a better barber.

Warsh laid out the guidelines for five tasks forces he was developing, to be managed by international Fed staff and select outsiders with experience related to individual topics.

1. Fed Communications - This task force will examine how the Fed communicates with markets and policymakers. It will consider updating the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the dot plots. It will also be reviewing the frequency and format of press conferences, with Warsh signaling a move away from automatic post-meeting pressers unless there’s something important to share.

2. Balance Sheet Policy - Given Warsh’s long-standing criticism of the Fed’s large bond holdings, this panel will assess the benefits and risks of the current “ample reserves” regime. Potential alternatives for implementing monetary policy without over-expansion of the balance sheet will be an area of concern.

3. Data Collection and Analysis - The group will evaluate new data sources and methodological improvements concerning how the Fed can get more timely, actionable insights into the economy.

4. Productivity and Jobs Data - This task force will review how the Fed measures and uses productivity and labor market indicators and whether current frameworks capture the nuances of employment and economic health.

5. Inflation Framework - A central focus, this panel will examine whether the Fed is targeting the right levers of inflation and consider a new inflation framework to improve accuracy and responsiveness.

Warsh expects the task forces to begin work within weeks, with updates starting in the fall and recommendations due by year-end. Any changes from their findings could take effect in early 2027. The shift in attitude and level of communication were far from subtle. It's apparent that Warsh was uneasy with the status quo and quickly has taken actions to reform and remodel the Federal Reserve's function in the general economy.

His actions are likely to make days of FOMC policy decisions less volatile in the markets, with every trading desk leaning in intensely, ready to take action on any particular clues that might be dropped. While Warsh's immediate predecessors were overtly provocative and eager to give markets green lights via their commentary or in the policy statement itself, he has signaled that the Fed will return to its Greenspan and prior eras of more opacity and less actionable pronouncements. The shift is notable and welcome after two decades of inside baseball giving institutions and people close to the Fed advances and advantages that allowed the savvy Wall Street experts to game the system.

There was a time - mostly in the 1960s and 70s - in which the Federal Reserve was seen only in the shadows, occasionally cracking open the door of the Eccles building to shed a little light on economic conditions. A return to a quieter, less-intrusive, and more defensible Federal Reserve is a welcome change.

After digesting what many money managers thought in advance would be a signal for raising rates, even after Warsh disclosed nothing of the kind, stocks sold off in herd-like manner during and after Warsh's press conference. Overnight and into Thursday morning there seemed ot be a re-assessment of the general sentiment. Since Warsh failed to offer any tip line to the needy trading community, stock futures have rebounded, pointing to a positive move at the open.

Conversely, in some kind of twisted logic, precious metals are selling off after rallying slightly overnight. There may still exist a perception that the Fed has no choice but to raise rates, making treasuries and other bonds and fixed income instruments attractive. Something triggered a jolt higher in yields late Wednesday, with the knee-jerk response the usual selling of gold and silver futures. Unsure at this time what was the trigger or why, there obviously are some insider workings that are taking their own paths.

Who's right and who's wrong-footed is going to lead to some degree of volatility in markets Thursday and Friday, which is also a quad-witching day, with quarterly futures and options expiring. There's plenty of chatter and speculation since the end of hostilities in the Middle East and Warsh's chairmanship going live.

At the Close, Wednesday, June 17, 2026:
Dow: 51,492.55, -507.12 (-0.98%)
NASDAQ: 26,021.66, -354.69 (-1.34%)
S&P 500: 7,420.10, -91.25 (-1.21%)
NYSE Composite: 23,469.76, -234.27 (-0.99%)

There Are Some Good Reasons Why New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh Will Signal Future Rate Cuts to Markets and Traders in First FOMC Presser

The Dow Jones Industrial Average made a new all-time closing high on Tuesday, as the first session of the two-day FOMC meeting got underway, led by Trump-appointed Chairman Kevin Warsh. The NASDAQ and S&P slipped a bit, though it was mostly profit-taking, given the gains on Monday from the peace deal MOU worked out between Iran and the United States.

Entering Wednesday, with Warsh's first policy statement and press conference about to make waves at 2:00 pm ET, markets aren't anticipating anything out of the ordinary from Warsh. Fed analyzers will be looking for forward clues to the Warsh Fed's general policy and direction.

Warsh faces the tough choice between pleasing President Trump, who is desirous of lower rates and responding to increasing pressures from inflation, which would more than likely favor raising rates. The new chairman may have caught a break with the Iran-U.S. peace deal, as oil prices have eased lower and gas at the pump, according to gasbuddy.com, is just below $4 ($3.99) for the first time in more than two months. That gives Warsh some leeway. If he mentions that gas and energy prices have been the main contributors to the increase in inflation, he can just brush raising rates aside, placing the blame for higher prices on the Middle East situation, which has just now changed for the better.

That would seem to be the most likely scenario for Warsh, who was Trump's choice for Fed Chairman primarily because he would align himself with the president's fiscal policies, one of which is to lower the cost of financing the government's massive debt load, poised to exceed $40 trillion within the next few months. Lower rates for servicing that debt would go a long way toward helping Republicans retain the House and Senate, a tall order, though nonetheless thought to be within reach by staunch "conservatives."

Thus, cutting interest rates, or, at least any mention of such intention, leans strongly in Warsh's favor. He gets to please Mr. Trump, goose stocks higher and cut the cost of serving the government debt.

Win-win-win.

Traders are likely to be in wait-and-see mode until 2:00 pm ET, when the formal policy statement is announced with the high probability that the Fed will keep the federal funds target rate at 3.50-3.75%, where it has been since December, 2025. Because the vast majority of Fed watchers expect no change at this meeting, fireworks on the stock and bonds markets will most probably ensue during Warsh's press conference, which kicks off at 2:30 pm. From then until the 4:00 pm close might see some wild swings, depending on how adept Warsh appears at projecting confidence and quietly tipping his hand towards future Fed dealings.

The real test of Warsh's signaling will come Thursday, after market participants have had time to assess what was said. Tying into the general state of affairs is Friday's signing of the MOU in Geneva, by VP Vance and Iranian representative, Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

Some wise guy traders might even take the opportunity to audaciously initiate new positions before the Fed announcement as the policy seems to favor cutting rates as opposed to raising them.

All of this makes for an interesting remainder of the week.

At the Close, Tuesday, June 16, 2026: Dow: 51,999.67, +328.64 (+0.64%) NASDAQ: 26,376.34, -307.60 (-1.15%) S&P 500: 7,511.35, -42.94 (-0.57%) NYSE Composite: 23,704.03, +30.37 (+0.13%)

Middle East Peace Sends Stocks Soaring; Dow Hits Record; Gold, Silver Recover from Recent Lows, Oil Down, Gas Prices to Follow

Editor's Note: Running very late this morning, making this a drive-by posting.

Obvious to everybody except maybe the more ardent Zionists and neocons, people like peace, and that's what sent stocks over the moon Monday, with the Dow Industrials closing at a record high with the S&P and NASDAQ almost sure to follow in coming sessions.

The MOU between the U.S. and Iran, set to be signed Friday, has already delivered results on Wall Street with the promise of a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz and end to the U.S. blockade and peace in the Middle East. The question remains, "how long will it last?" A ceasefire has been in place for two months, though all sides have violated it at various junctures, Israel being the most provocative.

President Netanyahu of the occupier country insists that he will not halt aggressions against Lebanon and Hezbollah, even after U.S. President Trump put him in his place after Israel threatened the entire peace process by bombin Beirut Sunday.

It's apparent that the losers in this war were the U.S. and Israel. Trump is taking a lot of heat from congressional members tied to the Zionist lobby, AIPAC, and from media jack-asses like Mark Levin. Trump's divorce from Israel is a bold move that needs to be taken. The U.S. cannot continue to support a country that engages in genocide openly and continuously. The "nation" of Israel has become a stain upon humanity and a pariah in the civilized world. Iran put them in their place militarily. Now, the U.S. is attempting to end the long and painful experience with their Zionist partners.

Those with hope, faith, and prayer will endure.

In markets, Elon Musk's SpaceX IPO hit the second stage Monday, rocketing 30 points higher (nearly 20%) on rumors that SpaceX (SPCX) would acquire Anysphere, the company behind the AI coding tool Cursor, for $60 billion, which was confirmed on Tuesday.

Futures are flying. July WTI crude oil futures are down to the lowest level in four months, $76.71. Gas prices at the pump should continue to fall below $4.00 a gallon in the U.S. Gold and silver continue to recover off recent lows.

Peace, yeah, what is it good for? The answer is plain to see.

At the Close, Monday, June 15, 2026:
Dow: 51,671.03, +468.77 (+0.92%)
NASDAQ: 26,683.94, +795.10 (+3.07%)
S&P 500: 7,554.29, +122.83 (+1.65%)
NYSE Composite: 23,673.66, +77.87 (+0.33%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Will a Peace Dividend Emerge? Trump, White House Expected to Announce Peace Deal with Iran Sunday, June 14

Peace - at least for the present - in the Middle East has finally been achieved, after more than three months of conflict, ceasefire, and back-and-forth between Iran and the United States.

Headline worshippers will gush endlessly about the brilliance of President Trump's strategies to topple Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, there will be no mention of the 2009 Brookings Institution white paper, "Which Path to Persia", in which most of the options for U.S. dealings with Iran were laid out years ago.

Which Path to Persia? Options for a New American Strategy toward Iran is a product of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. The essays were written by Saban Center scholars Daniel L. Byman, Martin Indyk, Suzanne Maloney, Michael E. O’Hanlon, Kenneth M. Pollack, and Bruce Riedel. Kenneth Pollack also served as the overall editor.

The entire 170-page document can be downloaded here [PDF], no strings attached.

Iran has been a focus of U.S. intelligence for many years. The CIA didn't overthrow the popularly-elected leader of Iran in 1953 and install the puppet leader, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, because they didn't have anything better to do. The 1953 coup in Iran was a significant event where the United States and the United Kingdom orchestrated a coup d'état that overthrew Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh and reinstated Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi as the leader of Iran. Mosaddegh was placed under house arrest for the remainder of his life.

Always a regional power that the U.S. viewed as a deterrent bulwark opposed to British, U.S. and Israeli interests in the region. The many years and decades of influence and intervention is not likely to cease with Sunday's forecast signing of a MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) between the U.S. and Iran. At the very least, it stops most of the militarism in the region and would ostensibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. It will serve as a path forward for the global economy, which was greatly threatened by the cessation of oil and other key commodity traffic through the Persian Gulf.

As Sunday morning unfolds to Sunday afternoon, both the White House and Iranian officials have remained mum on deal progress, even as Israel throws a spanner by bombing the southern suburbs of Beirut earlier today. Since today is Trump's 80th birthday, expect the White House to follow through, though what arrives as narrative may not stand up to a reality check in coming days. The ongoing farce of peace vs. war may come to some kind of halt on Sunday or continue along with yet another unkept promise.

Don't stay glued to FOX or any of the other mainstream media. Get out and enjoy a late Spring day. Whatever the people in "power" will do, they will do. It's likely to have a much bigger impact of Wall Street than in the lives of ordinary citizens, though, if real, could keep the media wheels spinning until the midterms, which, by some accounts, is all that matters inside the Beltway.

If some kind of agreement with Iran isn't undermined by Israel - always a real threat to peace - the economic benefits could prove to be profound, with lower gas prics for U.S. drivers, stability in emerging markets and global trade, and a return to pre-war conditions favorable to growth and prosperity. There might be a chance that President Trump's on-and-off rhetoric and his inner desire to make this year's Independence Day (July 4) celebration one worthy of 250-years of the U.S. republic. Consumer sentiment and national pride can go a long way toward improving conditions for all.

We shall see...

Stocks

Overall, stocks dropped to their lowest levels in a month on Tuesday and recovered on Thursday, extending the rally into Friday's session, though there was less-than-enthusiastic support for the latest messaging that peace in the Middle East was imminent, leaving markets in a weekend conundrum with some kind of resolution expected before markets reopen Monday. Some indication of what may develop for equities on Monday may come from precious metals, which reopen trading on Sunday at 6:00 pm ET, or bitcoin, which trades continuously.

If a deal is struck and announced by te White House as promised, the resultant rally in stocks should exceed the opposite drop in the price of crude oil. Estimates, based on a successful "deal" with language sufficient to ensure follow-through, are for stocks to rise more than two percent through midweek, with cruide oil losing some four to eight dollars per barrel, into a range of $75-80.

On the week, the NYSE Composite (+339.29, +1.46%) and Dow Transports (+683.16, +3.12%) outpaced the three majors, with the NASDAQ the weak horse, up just 0.31% over the past five sessions.

The week ahead features only a few companies reporting first quarter results.

Monday: (before open) Canopy Growth (CGC); (after close) Dave & Buster's (PLAY)

Tuesday: (before open) Wiley (WLY); (after close) LazyBoy (LZB)

Wednesday: (before open) Progressive Insurance (PGR), Jabil Electronics (JBL), Carmax (KMX)

Thursday: (before open) Accenture (ACN), Kroger (KRO)

The big event for the week ahead will be the two-day FOMC meeting, Tuesday and Wednesday, this being the first under newly-appointed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh. Of course, that would take a back seat to any delay in the "peace plan" if not announced Sunday.

Monday offers the NY Fed Manufacturing Index, Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production metrics. Tuesday, monthly building permits and housing starts for May are released prior to the market open. May retail sales come in Wednesday morning, with the Fed's policy statement following at 2:00 pm ET. Thursday gets the usual initial and continuing claims data from the Labor Department and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
05/08/2026	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.69	3.75	3.74	3.75
05/15/2026	3.71	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.76	3.77	3.82
05/22/2026	3.72	3.69	3.69	3.68	3.78	3.79	3.86
05/29/2026	3.72	3.71	3.71	3.69	3.78	3.78	3.79
06/05/2026	3.71	3.71	3.71	3.78	3.78	3.81	3.88
06/12/2026	3.69	3.70	3.70	3.78	3.79	3.82	3.86

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
05/08/2026	3.90	3.92	4.02	4.19	4.38	4.93	4.95
05/15/2026	4.09	4.14	4.26	4.43	4.59	5.14	5.12
05/22/2026	4.13	4.18	4.27	4.41	4.56	5.06	5.07
05/29/2026	3.98	4.06	4.13	4.27	4.45	4.98	4.99
06/05/2026	4.17	4.22	4.29	4.41	4.55	5.03	5.01
06/12/2026	4.09	4.12	4.21	4.34	4.48	4.98	4.97

Treasury yields came off recent highs, but hardly in a convincing manner. The dual lines in the sand - 5.00% for 30-year bonds and $4.50 for 10-year notes were taken out as the peace prospects made their rounds, but debt buyers were apprehensive about going long overall. Spreads continue to remain at high levels across the entire curve, while 2s-10s continue to be restrained.

The treasury curve is orderly overall, though much of its future depends on what comes out of the Fed's FOMC meeting in the week ahead. Keven Warsh was appointed by President Trump to ensure lower rates and easier money, but re-ignition of inflation lately has tamped down expectations and the Fed may indeed signal rate hikes ahead at new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's initial press conference. Bond traders will be on high alert for any tip-offs in either the formal statement or spoken at the presser.

For now, it's a wait-and-see condition.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128

Oil/Gas

WTI crude futures closed out the week at $84.88 on the NY Mercantile Exchange, down sharply from the prior Friday reading of $90.26, in anticipation of some kind of announcement that a deal has been struck between the United States and Iran, ending hostilities in the region. As of Sunday morning, the White House has yet to make a declaration, though one is expected soon.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.11 last week and $4.03 this week, another in a four to five week move lower, with prospects for prices to retrat by as much as another 50-60 cents by mid-summer are enticing.

Reserves have been substantially drained by major economies around the world to keep prices under control. The United States has been purging its strategic oil reserve - the world’s largest emergency crude oil stockpile — and is currently on track to hit its lowest level since the early 1980s. Recent data shows 357.1 million barrels in the week ending May 29, 2026, nearly half of its authorized 714 million barrel capacity and close to the 346.8 million barrel low reached in July 2023.

About eight million barrels were taken last week, following earlier weekly draws of 9–10 million barrels. Total U.S. crude inventories (commercial + SPR) have fallen to 709.8 million barrels, down from 878 million in early April. It has gotten to a point at which oil executives feared inventories were falling to unsustainable levels and further drawdowns could threaten to snd prices spiraling higher. While oil execs are usually in fovar of higher prices for their products, the ongoing situation became precarious with flows shut off completely.

Prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.72 (-0.16)
Washington: $5.51 (-0.11)
Oklahoma: $3.50 (-0.09)
Mississippi: $3.65 (-0.07)
Florida: $3.80 (+0.05)
Illinois: $4.34 (-0.20)
Pennsylvania: $4.20 (-0.12)
New York: $4.34 (-0.09)
Maryland: $3.81 (-0.15)
Michigan: $4.17 (+0.04)
Texas (lowest): $3.47 (-0.11)
Georgia: $3.72 (-0.06)

On Sunday, June 14th, there are twenty-seven (27) states with average prices below $4.00, with 21 above the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.58) and Alaska ($5.14), with just two above $5 (California, Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past four weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging well below $4.00 ($3.47-3.80) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region a close second, prices averaging from $3.71 to $3.90.

Bitcoin

This week: $64,048.96
Last week: $61,809.72
2 weeks ago: $73,835.71
6 months ago: $90,207.59
One year ago: $105,312.90
Five years ago: $35,525.93

Bit of a rebound this week off multi-year lows. Bitcoin hasn't cleared any of the hurdles that would convince investors that the deep slide off the highs from mid-July through mid-October of last year has run its course. With prices depressed since February of this year, below $82,000 at best, the path forward for bitcoin appears to be a continuation of the lowered price structure. The current chart configuration resembles that of late 2021 through all of 2022 and into summer of 2023, when prices collapsed off highs above $64,000 down to lows in the teens.

Bitcoin's fate, largely in the hands of "whales" and institutions like Strategy (MSTR), holding more than 90% of all bitcoin mined. Faith in crypto as an alternative to fiat currencies has faded badly and may become mored in a low price regime for what could turn into years.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 62.03; last week: 63.80

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 5/15: $4,543.60
Gold price 5/22: $4,543.60
Gold price 5/29: $4,569.90
Gold price 6/5: $4,353.90
Gold price 6/12: $4,239.90

Silver price 5/15: $76.29
Silver price 5/22: $75.92
Silver price 5/29: $75.58
Silver price 6/5: $68.00
Silver price 6/12: $68.12

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 5/15: $4,539.72
Gold 5/22: $4,508.74
Gold 5/29: $4,538.94
Gold 6/5: $4,327.57
Gold 6/12: $4,218.23

Silver 5/15: $75.94
Silver: 5/22: $75.48
Silver 5/29: $75.27
Silver 6/5: $67.83
Silver 6/12: $68.00

Silver and gold hit some serious bottoms during the week, but roused to a positive lose on Friday as the rumors of peace with Iran began to circulate. It's not as if opening up the Strait of Hormuz has anything at all with precious metals, the spreading exuberance over ending the conflict in the Middle East seems ot be popping up in unusual places. Perhaps it is more about slowing inflation tied to a more robust flow of oil that made the metals move, but trading from Tuesday through Friday suggested that lows were hunted, found, and satisfied short sellers sufficiently.

Precious metals remain the ultimate safe haven for obvious reasons, though they've been under pressure recently and especially during the Iran conflict, moving lower in contradiction to usual patterns. Gold has, for centuries, been sought as protection during unsure periods, but these days seems to be fractious within fractured markets operating at the derivative level in the West and more in a physical manner in the East. The dichotomy will continue indefinitely, though physical markets are always and everywhere preferred by serious buyers of not just precious metals, but commodities of all sorts. Futures are good enough insurance for food stocks and other commodities which have seasonal variation, but sometimes are seriously out of touch when it comes to more durable things.

One wouldn't go looking for a car based on future prices? Or buy a house based on what it may be worth a few months or years from the present date, would one?

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	75.00	84.00	79.97	80.25
1 oz silver bar:	74.95	88.97	80.49	79.07
1 oz gold coin:	4340.00	4536.36	4445.51	4437.93
1 oz gold bar:	4392.32	4578.29	4430.84	4421.52

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) lost a small amount of ground this week, dropping to $79.95 on June 14, a loss of 33 cents per troy ounce, from the June 7 price of $80.28.

WEEKEND WRAP

"Peace" has different meanings to different groups of people. Perhaps the appropriate definition is contained in this anonymous, brilliant quote: "Peace is that brief glorious moment in history when everybody stands around reloading."

That may be what we have for now. How long it lasts is a function of policy and the will to power of various players in the world of geo-politics. Often attributed as Albert Einstein's definition of insanity - doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results - is also applicable. The insanity of waging war will persist, no matter how long it takes the opposing sides to reload.

Enjoy it while/if you can.

At the Close, Friday, June 12, 2026:
Dow: 51,202.26, +353.51 (+0.70%)
NASDAQ: 25,888.84, +79.18 (+0.31%)
S&P 500: 7,431.46, +37.16 (+0.50%)
NYSE Composite: 23,595.79, +182.90 (+0.78%)

For the Week:
Dow: +355.48 (+0.66%)
NASDAQ: +179.41 (+0.70%)
S&P 500: +47.72 (+0.65%)
NYSE Composite: +339.29 (+1.46%)
Dow Transports: +683.16 (+3.12%)

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