Everything was going just swimmingly last week until Friday's Supreme Court decision derailed President Trump's signature tariff policy, saying, in a 6-3 decision, that the tariffs imposed by President Trump were not lawful (some may say, illegal) under the terms of the IEEPA. The ruling sets in motion discussion and almost certainly, lawsuits, from countries and/or companies that paid the tariffs and will subsequently seek refunds.
In the meantime, Trump made a sweeping declaration, imposing 10% tariffs on all U.S. imports, raising it to 15% (the maximum allowable by law) hours later. The law gives the president 150 days of tariff authority without congressional approval under trade law section 122. Trump has other options, including the use of Section 301, to impose tariffs on countries deemed "unjustifiable" or "burdens or restricts" US business interests.
Probably nothing, but in light of the Supreme Court ruling Friday, India cancelled a trade delegation's trip to DC. Recall just a few weeks ago, the Boaster-in-Chief was hailing his "deal" with India as a major accomplishment. He also suggested that India had halted their buying of Russian crude oil and promised to purchase $500 billion worth of American goods and services. Um, no.
There was little to no discernible market impact from the court ruling or Trump's latest dictate. Stocks rose on Friday as the U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford steamed through the Mediterranean en route to the Arabian Sea where it would join the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln, ostensibly preparing for an assault on Iran, essentially because the Iranians don't like he idea of leaving themselves defenseless against America, Israel, or anybody else, for that matter.
Lost in conversation was the BEA report of 4th quarter 2025 GDP collapsing to 1.4%, dropping the 225 full year GDP to a disappointing 2.25%, or the PCE index remaining relatively stable at 2.6%.
The week's events leave the U.S. economic picture just a little bit muddier. Probably nothing.
Stocks
This week, Wall Street declared the selling off of companies primarily in the business of software because of the treat from AI to be over.
It's not. It's only just begun.
Oracle (ORCL), Intuit (INTU), Salesforce (CRM), Adobe (ADBE), and AppLovin (APP) lost between 13% and 30% over the past month. Adobe was hit the least (13.72%); Intuit the most (30.52%). The main culprit appears to be Anthropic's Claude Sonnet 4.6 AI product, which made a quantum leap over previous versions in terms of computational skills and coding knowledge.
These companies and others are at serious risk unless they can quickly incorporate AI into their product mix. They may be doomed no matter what they do, as AI operability is scaling quickly and Anthropic's model is very good at writing code and producing apps.
Stocks managed to fight off nagging negative news and continue pumping money into the bubble. Stock valuations are at their highest level in history, as if U.S. industrial and business dominance overrides excessive debt and obvious ploys like stock buyback programs to artificially boost corporate earnings. As always, the sky's the limit, until it isn't.
In volume terms, this was one of the most sluggish weeks in recent memory. Market participants are looking for some kind of catalyst and they'r not getting any from earnings, AI buildout or job-crunching fears, or the "bomb Iran" waiting game.
Earnings season is winding down. The most important earnings reports will be fiew and spread across the week with focus on miners, retailers Home Depot and TJX, and Dow component, Salesforce. Nvidia is likely to take all the air out of the room Thursday, reporting after the close Wednesday.
Monday: (before open) Domino's Pizza (DPZ), Dominion Energy (D), FreshPet (FRPT); (after close) Kratos (KTOS), Primoris (PRM), Hims|Hers (HIMS)
Tuesday: (before open) Home Depot (HD), NRG (NRG), Planet Fitness (PLNT); (after close) AMC Entertainment (AMC), Cava (CAVA), Mercado Libre (MELI), Workday (WDAY), First Solar (FSLR), HP Inc. (HPQ)
Wednesday: (before open) TJX Companies (TJX), Photronics (PLAB), Lowe’s (LOW); (after close) Nvidia (NVDA), SalesForce (CRM), Synopsis (SNPS),
Thursday: (before open) Baidu (BIDU), Rackspace (RXT), Royal Bank of Canada (RY); (after close) Dell (DELL), CoreWeave (CRWV)
Friday: (before open) Endeavor Silver (EXK), 1st Dibs (DIBS), Globalstar (GSAT)
The week ahead is light on data, including Factory Orders on Monday, Tuesday's S&P Case-Shiller home price index for December, December Wholesale inventories, and February Consumer Confidence preceding President Trump's State of the Union address. Thursday has initial and continuing jobless claims and Friday closes out the week with the February Producer Price Index (PPI) before the bell.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/16/2026 | 3.75 | 3.72 | 3.68 | 3.67 | 3.66 | 3.60 | 3.55 |
| 01/23/2026 | 3.78 | 3.71 | 3.72 | 3.70 | 3.67 | 3.61 | 3.53 |
| 01/30/2026 | 3.72 | 3.73 | 3.75 | 3.67 | 3.69 | 3.61 | 3.48 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3.72 | 3.72 | 3.74 | 3.68 | 3.70 | 3.59 | 3.45 |
| 02/13/2026 | 3.72 | 3.71 | 3.73 | 3.68 | 3.70 | 3.59 | 3.42 |
| 02/20/2026 | 3.72 | 3.73 | 3.74 | 3.69 | 3.71 | 3.61 | 3.51 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/16/2026 | 3.59 | 3.67 | 3.82 | 4.02 | 4.24 | 4.79 | 4.83 |
| 01/23/2026 | 3.60 | 3.67 | 3.84 | 4.03 | 4.24 | 4.78 | 4.82 |
| 01/30/2026 | 3.52 | 3.60 | 3.79 | 4.01 | 4.26 | 4.82 | 4.87 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3.50 | 3.57 | 3.76 | 3.98 | 4.22 | 4.80 | 4.85 |
| 02/13/2026 | 3.40 | 3.43 | 3.61 | 3.81 | 4.04 | 4.64 | 4.69 |
| 02/20/2026 | 3.48 | 3.50 | 3.65 | 3.85 | 4.08 | 4.66 | 4.72 |
There was very little movement in fixed income, similar to the sluggishness demonstrated in equities. Almost not worth reporting, spreads were flat, with 2s-10s at +60 and full spectrum at +100. The biggest move was in 2-year notes, with yields up 8 basis points, though still well below recent levels. 1-month bills remained moored at 3.72% for the fourth week running.
Spreads:
2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51
11/7: +56
11/14: +52
11/21: +55
11/28: +55
12/5: +58
12/12: +67
12/19: +68
12/26: +68
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61
11/7: +69
11/14: +70
11/21: +68
11/28: +62
12/5: +97
12/12: +109
12/19: +111
12/26: +111
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
Oil/Gas
WTI crude ended the week at $66.31, the largest weekly gain in eight months, from the close last week at $60.58. Tensions in the Middle East continue to drive speculation in crude, with the Strait of Hormuz a tipping point. While there's a contingent of traders who believe the strait would be shut down by Iran in the case of a U.S. attack, there's also an argument that closing off oil flows would not serve Iran well, given their major customer is China. It would be tantamount to shooting itself in the foot.
It is more likely that the conflict over Iran will last longer than U.S. and Israel desire, and that a focused assault could rapidly escalate into a regional or wider war, drawing in other Mideast nations and possibly China and Russia. Such a scenario remain an open possibility since Iran sees the current amassing of force off its coast as an existential threat, similar to Russia's view of the Ukraine situation. Should hostilities spread beyond Iran, the price of oil would almost certainly rise, regardless of whether the Strait of Hormus remained open or closed.
The markets prefer a short, quick resolution, though the reality is that nothing indicates a quick strike or resolution. There's a better chance that whatever occurs in the Middle East is going to rage on for months and possibly years as it serves the interests of both the U.S. and Israel to keep the world in chaos and continual conflict.
The U.S. national average for gas at the pump remained flat for the week, at $2.92 by Sunday.
California rose another five cents this week, to $4.60 per gallon, the highest in the nation and up 29 cents in just the past three weeks. Washington ($4.27) remained in the $4+ club for a second straight week, up a whopping 15 cents. Oregon ($3.81), was up 20 cents. After three weeks under $3.00, Arizona is above $3.00 for a third straight week, rising six cents to $3.22. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma well below any other state, at $2.30, followed by Arkansas ($2.40) and Louisiana ($2.41). Texas checks in at $2.43. The remaining Southeast states, from North Carolina ($2.70) west to New Mexico ($2.50), are all below $2.70, except Florida ($2.87).
In the Northeast, prices remained steady and consistently close to recent lows. Only Pennsylvania ($3.14) was above $3.00. New York held steady at $2.98, along with Vermont ($3.00).
In the midwest region, Illinois remained the highest, though down eight cents at $2.92, with Michigan next, at $2.83. Kansas was the lowest ($2.45), followed by North Dakota ($2.46).
Sub-$3.00 gas was the norm in 40 of the lower 48 states, one fewer than last week, leaving only California, Washington, Nevada, Oregon, Illinois, Arizona, Vermont, and Pennsylvania, at $3.00 or above.
Bitcoin
This week: $67,651.35
Last week: $68,948.18
2 weeks ago: $71,145.72
6 months ago: $115,468.40
One year ago: $96,443.38
Five years ago: $46,158.54
Bitcoin couldn't even get as high as $68,700 this week. It's painfully obvious that the bloom is off this particular rose. ETF flows have been negative for weeks and the Ponzi seems to be collapsing upon itself. Almost nobody uses crypto as a means of exchange and as a store of value, it's a complete flop. There is almost no use case for cyrpto other than a slush fund for nefarious activity.
Bitcoin miners are turning their expansive networks of servers toward AI, closing out their chase for bitcoin rewards, which don't even cover the cost of electricity and hardware. Say goodbye to this obvious fraud within 18 months, if that long.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 60.66; last week: 65.32
Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 1/23: $4,983.10
Gold price 1/30: $4,907.50
Gold price 2/6: $4,988.60
Gold price 2/13: $5,063.80
Gold price 2/20: $5,108.34
Silver price 1/23: $103.26
Silver price 1/30: $85.25
Silver price 2/6: $77.53
Silver price 2/13: $77.27
Silver price 2/20: $84.57
SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 1/23: $4,989.23
Gold 1/30: $4,886.71
Gold 2/6: $4,964.07
Gold 2/13: $5,041.72
Gold 2/20: $5,130.00
Silver 1/23: $102.95
Silver 1/30: $84.63
Silver 2/6: $77.98
Silver 2/13: $77.19
Silver 2/20: $84.57
Surprisingly, the COMEX/LBMA price suppression cartel didn't take Lunar New Year as an opportunity to crash metals prices while Chinese markets were closed. In fact, the opposite occurred, with both metals rising, especially sharply on Friday, the last open trading day before markets in the East open at 6:00 pm ET Sunday evening.
Anybody hoping to buy the dip got outflanked by bullish trends prevailing. Friday's move higher might have been related to the situation in the Middle East, though it's difficult to tell. Volatility is likely to be maintained, but, for all intents and purposes, direction in gold and silver prices seems to have returned to a positive stance.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 oz silver coin: | 88.51 | 100.00 | 94.27 | 94.00 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 88.00 | 107.50 | 97.82 | 98.59 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 5,322.92 | 5,627.34 | 5,467.43 | 5,462.11 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 5,315.58 | 5,514.23 | 5,389.86 | 5,384.80 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose marginally, to $96.17, a gain of 93 cents from the February 15 price of $95.24 per troy ounce. Premiums remain elevated.
The weekly eBay price survey revealed that retail dealers and casual buyers and sellers have adjusting to severe premiums, which remain in a range of 20-25% for small denominations.
WEEKEND WRAP
Tariffs, trade, the flow of oil, military conflict, AI encroachment, probably nothing...
At the Close, Friday, February 20, 2026:
Dow: 49,625.97, +230.81 (+0.47%)
NASDAQ: 22,886.07, +203.34 (+0.90%)
S&P 500: 6,909.51, +47.62 (+0.69%)
NYSE Composite: 23,452.60, +94.32 (+0.40%)
For the Week:
Dow: +125.04 (+0.25%)
NASDAQ: +339.40 (+1.51%)
S&P 500: +73.34 (+1.07%)
NYSE Composite: +126.51 (+0.54%)
Dow Transports: +497.86 (+2.57%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
Friday, February 20, 2026
GDP Drops to 1.4% in 4th Quarter of 2025; PCE Holding at 2.6%; Conflict with Iran Possibly on the Weekend Agenda; Markets Shaky
Despite being a short week and indices remaining near all-time highs, markets have shown quite a bit of intraday volatility.
Through Thursday's close, the Dow is down 103 points, the NASDAQ is up 136 points, and the S&P is up 25 points. The NASDAQ looks to break a string of five straight losing weeks. It has had only one week on the positive side, that being the first full week of 2026, January 5-9.
The big number for today is the delayed release of the initial estimate for 4th quarter, 2025 GDP. The BEA released the figure at 8:30 am ET, showing real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in October, November and December.
Putting together the four quarters of 2025 - (0.6%), 3.8%, 4.4%, 1.4% - and dividing by four, reveals that real GDP for 2025 was a substandard 2.25%.
Compared to 2024: 0.8% 3.6% 3.3% 1.9% = 2.40%
and 2023: 2.9% 2.5% 4.7% 3.4% = 3.375%
... the U.S. is running in reverse.
The government and the usual suspect mainstream expert economists will attribute the poor showing to the government shutdown, which is pure nonsense. The federal government may have halted some procurement in October and early November, but they almost certainly spent that money as quickly as possible, in late November and December. The truer picture would likely be found in the lack of holiday spending. Tapped out consumers weren't buying Christmas presents as much as they were paying inflated prices for food, rent, insurance, and taxes.
Wall Street apparently feels the same way. Stock futures took a bit of a dive on the GDP release. If there's any one group that has a feel for the pulse of commerce in America, it's the stock and bond traders of lower Manhattan, and they don't like what they're seeing.
Additionally, according to the BEA, "the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.6 percent in 2025, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in 2024. The PCE price index increased 2.6 percent, the same increase as in 2024. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.8 percent, compared with an increase of 2.9 percent."
Those numbers aren't particularly indicative of stable prices. The PCE index and the CPI have been kept artificially lower over the past six months by declining oil and gas prices. With the overwhelming consensus suspecting the Trump administration - with assistance and urging by Israel - to initiate military action against Iran possibly this weekend, traders are more than a little bit spooked about the direction of the economy and global geo-politics. The continuing saga of the Epstein affairs add yet another layer of insecurity to the general malaise.
It's more than just your run-of-the-mill mess. The U.S. is weak and threatening to kick off a military excursion that almost certainly will lead to a larger conflict, if not regional, possibly global.
At the Close, Thursday, February 19, 2026:
Dow: 49,395.16, -267.50 (-0.54%)
NASDAQ: 22,682.73, -70.91 (-0.31%)
S&P 500: 6,861.89, -19.42 (-0.28%)
NYSE Composite: 23,358.27, -29.22 (-0.12%)
Thursday, February 19, 2026
Jobless Claims Near 5-Year Lows; Trade Deficit Widens Despite Tariffs; Ebay, Deere, Walmart Lead Earnings Parade as Futures Slip on Iran Fears
Wednesday was another one of those magical melt-up days on Wall Street that everybody has become so very used to witnessing, it's almost a crying shame if stocks don't go up for any particular reason. All indices started the session in the red, quickly popped to the positive and managed to hold onto about half of the session's gains.
These simplistic algorithmic gains don't hide the facts of a stumbling U.S. economy based mostly on shoddy, continually-revised--lower government data, like Non-farm Payrolls, CPI and GDP, the latter of which we'll get an advance look at tomorrow morning.
For today, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the U.S. trade balance (goods and services deficit) was $70.3 billion in December, up $17.3 billion from $53.0 billion in November, revised. The U.S. continues to insist on importing more than it exports. This is not surprising at all, even despite Trump's tariffs. For 2025, the goods and services deficit decreased $2.1 billion, or 0.2 percent, from 2024. Yep, those tariffs have made a huge impact.
Americans have been running trade deficits for the past 30 years, with no end in sight. Tariffs only make imports more expensive. USA-USA-USA! Hell, yeah!
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing rose to 16.3 in February, up from 12.6 a month ago.
Initial Jobless Claims came in at 209,000, down sharply from last week's estimate of 229K, and close to the lowest in five years. Despite AI causing significant workforce reductions, the number is not at all surprising, given that there are fewer U.S. jobs to being with, ergo, fewer people to let go.
After the close on Wednesday, a few more companies reported 4th quarter results.
eBay (EBAY) - strong quarter, stock up 6% pre-market
Doordash (DASH) - missed estimates, shares up 9% (go fig
ure)
Kinross (KGC) - strong beat, top and bottom, stock flat (go figure
again!)
Carvana (CVNA) - unimpressive 4Q, clouded guidance, stock down 7%
Thursday, before the bell, more reports:
First Magestic (AG) - earnings, revenue beat, dividend boost, up 3%
John Deere (DE) - solid guidance, shares up 6%
Walmart (WMT) - stable earnings, cautious guidance; stock up 1.5%
Wayfair (W) - sales pop, narrows loss, up 12%
Yeti (YETI) - earnings in line, tariff issues send stock down 7%
Stock futures are sliding on fears of U.S. attack on Iron over weekend; oil futures up for same reason. Gold continues to test $5,000. Silver advanced overnight to as high as $78.60.
General conditions are still quite shaky
At the Close, Wednesday, February 18, 2026:
Dow: 49,662.66, +129.47 (+0.26%)
NASDAQ: 22,753.63, +175.25 (+0.78%)
S&P 500: 6,881.31, +38.09 (+0.56%)
NYSE Composite: 23,387.49, +86.71 (+0.37%)
Wednesday, February 18, 2026
Fiverr, Another AI Casualty, Drops 23% After Earnings Report; AI Is a Rolling Juggernaut of Labor Destruction and Repositioning
AI adoption is already taking its toll in a variety of areas, the latest casualty being the gig economy freelance marketplace, fiverr, a site at which companies and/or individuals can hire out talent for a wide variety of tasks, from mowing lawns to babysitting to website development, graphics, and coding.
The company (FVRR) released its latest quarterly earnings report Wednesday morning. While able to surpass analyst estimates, the company issued a discouraging forecast, citing AI as one of the main causes for caution moving forward.
Micha Kaufman, the company’s founder and CEO, emphasized that the company is experiencing a major shift in AI adoption, with the marketplace evolving to make human talent more essential.
The above quote, taken from this Benzinga article which outlines the company's financial condition, doesn't make a load of sense. CEO Kaufman recognizes the shift toward AI, but in the same breath offers the opinion that his company will focus on making "human talent more essential," which is the exact opposite of what AI does. It degrades human talent. In some cases - and these will grow as AI becomes more robust - AI eliminates human interaction altogether.
Now, if all you need is somebody to do window washing or lawn care, fiverr is probably a good place to look. But, if you're a business manager seeking to expand opportunities, increase market share, create content, do sales analysis, or any of the hundreds of business activities that constitute day-to-day operations, AI can do them at a fracton of the cost of what these freelancers on fiverr are charging, many of them already pitching AI tools and integration themselves.
Taken through a lens that filters out the burgeoning impact of AI, Fiverr's metrics weren't all that bad.
Fiverr reported adjusted earnings per share of 86 cents, beating the analyst consensus estimate of 72 cents. Normally, that would be positive. However, given the current climate, with the view that AI is going to eliminate much of the business need for human interaction, it's a bummer.
Shares are down some 22-24% in pre-market trading. What's worse is that the compnay's stock is down some 97% from where it was five years ago. Pre-market quote for FVRR is $10.33, down from an all-time high of $323 in February, 2021. Ouch!
That's where the rubber meets the road. Most savvy business managers want to keep costs down, while having the ability to delegate tasks and keep the managers time open to pursue more important activities, like smoozing with upper management, playing golf, or actually improving the business. Such a manager might hire a fiverr freelancer for a specific task, and, if professionally performed, might keep the freelancer on call for other jobs. Meanwhile, this manager is firing all of his full-time employees as he finds free-lance replacements.
On an tangetial level, Ai is going to wreak havoc on accounting, reporting, and employment firms, especially ones like Paychex (PAYX) which handles all the government filings and payroll for many small and medium-sized companies. Another area of impact will be in HR departments. With the need for personnal management degraded, there will eventually be no need to have much more than a single person overseeing the human workforce. The days of nagging HR compliance overseers are soon to meet their just reward: the unemployment line.
The fivrr experience is far from an isolated case. AI is going to rupture corporate myths and the need for human labor. AI, and the emergence of robotics in the workplace will make human interaction almost an afterthought. This ongoing, dramtic change in the business landscape is certain to have long-lasting effects. The companies which embrace AI and robotics at the fastest pace are most likely to aviod becoming irrelevant, but many will fall by the wayside simply by not keeping up with rapidchanges in corporate structure. Forget the horrors of DEI. The blue-haired tattooed lowlife demanding a living wage will become a forgotten relic from an era of massive stupidity.
Wise investors will be looking to firms which adopt AI in crafty ways and send their legacy employees - at least at entry level for now - packing.
At the close, Tuesday, February 17, 2026:
Dow: 49,533.19, +32.26 (+0.07%)
NASDAQ: 22,578.38, +31.71 (+0.14%)
S&P 500: 6,843.22, +7.05 (+0.10%)
NYSE Composite: 23,300.78, -25.31 (-0.11%)
Sunday, February 15, 2026
WEEKEND WRAP: AI Begins to Ravage Industries; Major Changes Afoot; Middle East Quiet, Though Tensions Remain; Oil Drops, Gas Rises
AI is improving rapidly, and this week it impacted various industries, the most impacted being insurance, finance, law, real estate, and software. Financial firms got th most attention. Schwab and Raymond James finished the week 7.4% and 8.7% lower, respectively. Stifel Financial dipped 3.8%. Morgan Stanley (parent co. of eTrade) lost 2.4%.
AI is disrupting just about everything. Soon enough, AI tools will make copyright and trademark laws essentially irrelevant. A service from Bytedance (parent of TikTok), called Seedance 2.0 promises users to...
"Experience true multi-modal AI video creation. Combine images, videos, audio, and text to generate cinematic content with precise reference capabilities, seamless video extension, and natural language control."
For reference, recall that, due to U.S. national security concerns, TikTok’s American operations were restructured into a separate entity called TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC, which officially launched on January 22, 2026. Under this structure, Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX each hold a 15% stake, collectively controlling 45% of the U.S. business. ByteDance retains a 19.9% stake, complying with U.S. law limiting Chinese ownership. The remaining 35.1% is held by other investors, including Michael Dell and Vastmere Strategic Investments.
Just as TikTok created a content firestorm, Seedance will eviscerate existing contracts with copyright holders, actors, producers, directors, TV and film studios because the software is inexpensive, available to anybody, works on any home computer and can generate images and video in a fraction of the time it takes traditional media. The backlash is likely to come in the form of more censorship by vested interests with close contact to internet infrastructure (Google, Amazon, Meta).
To show how rapidly AI is changing the landscape for content providers, here's the prompt I directed at Microsoft's 100% free Co-pilot AI this morning:
I would like a review of the past week in the financial world, including quotes for the major averages, which stocks were up, which were down, and a few paragraphs each devoted to the oil/gas industry, gas prices in the U.S., bitcoin and crypto, precious metals, and fixed income and treasuries. A summary of general market conditions and a look at the week ahead.
Here's what it returned, formatted for cut-and-paste application. It took less than 15 minutes start to finish, mostly because the human interaction (me) slowed the process. Actual computational time was less than two minutes.
Examples: Rivian; Coinbase; Fastly; Magna; several small‑cap and energy names posted strong weekly gains. Examples: Pinterest; DraftKings; Bright Horizons; a number of speculative small caps and episodic weakness in some tech names tied to AI re‑rating. The oil and gas sector finished the week with mixed signals. Brent traded in the high‑$60s per barrel while WTI sat in the low‑$60s, with prices drifting on a mix of demand concerns and regional supply flows. Producers are balancing higher service costs and capital discipline against still‑solid cash flows. Mergers, production plans, and capital allocation decisions remain sensitive to short‑term price swings and OPEC+ signals. Market commentary this week emphasized inventory data and refinery throughput as the next near‑term drivers for crude. Retail gasoline moved only modestly week‑over‑week. National averages were roughly $2.90–$2.94 per gallon, with regional spreads (the West Coast notably higher) and small weekly upticks in some PADDs. Weekly fuel updates highlighted regional refinery maintenance and seasonal patterns as the main causes of local moves. Expect volatility around refinery turnarounds and any sudden crude swings. Bitcoin regained ground after mid‑week volatility, trading in the low $70k area by the weekend and showing a choppy but constructive weekly pattern. Crypto markets remained sensitive to macro headlines, regulatory chatter, and liquidity into spot and derivatives venues. Trading volumes and on‑chain metrics showed renewed activity, but not yet a broad risk‑on stampede; flows into ETFs and derivatives funding rates were notable drivers of intraday moves. Gold rallied during the week, hitting weekly highs on a combination of softer inflation signals and risk‑off flows into safe havens. Silver and other precious metals followed, with traders citing the interplay between real yields and dollar moves as the dominant technical driver. Bullion market data showed a clear weekly uptick in prices and demand for hedging exposure. Yields moved lower overall on softer inflation cues and some weaker economic prints, though the week included spikes tied to stronger‑than‑expected payrolls earlier in the period that briefly pushed yields higher. The 10‑year Treasury traded with intra‑week swings and closed the week reflecting continued uncertainty about the timing and pace of Fed easing. Duration and credit spreads tightened in pockets as investors rebalanced between risk and safety. Macro data and Fed expectations: Mixed economic prints kept markets oscillating between risk‑on and risk‑off. Stronger payrolls earlier in the week briefly lifted yields and pressured growth and tech names, while softer inflation readings later eased rate‑cut timing bets. Sector rotation and AI headlines: Debate over the breadth of the AI trade produced sharp moves in software, semiconductors, and adjacent sectors as analysts re‑priced winners and potential losers. Commodities and FX: Moves in oil and metals fed through to energy and materials stocks; the dollar’s direction amplified moves in gold and crypto.
OK, it's far from perfect, but, complete output in a fraction of the time for human production, and that's using a free service. The paid services are much more robust, faster, think deeper, and, with training, produce more robust and useful information.
The essay, Something Big Is Happening, published by Matt Shumer on February 9, caught a lot of people's attention, as did Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman statement that most professional white-collar tasks could be fully automated within the next two years, outlining a timeline that would affect workers across industries, including law, accounting, and marketing.
Weekly snapshot — major averages (close of week)
Who moved
Notable winners
Notable losers
Oil and gas industry
U.S. gasoline prices
Bitcoin and crypto
Precious metals
Fixed income and Treasuries
General market conditions
The week ahead
"I think that we're going to have a human-level performance on most, if not all, professional tasks,” he said. “So white collar work, where you're sitting down at a computer, either being a lawyer or an accountant or a project manager or a marketing person, most of those tasks will be fully automated by an AI within the next 12 to 18 months.”
Having just toyed with AI the past six months or so, I can definitely see what the experts are warning about. As with any new technology, from the automobile, the cotton gin, telephone, or personal computers, there is going to be an adjustment period in affected industries where people lose jobs while other, more creative or resourceful types move up the corporate ladder, companies fail while others thrive and whole sectors are affected.
AI, being massively disruptive in its ability to mirror or even replace human interaction, is, at least, a productivity-enhancing tool. It performs tasks faster than humans can, and, with each improved iteration, it performs those tasks better and with more accuracy. This technology will replace jobs, or, for companies which recognize talent and wish to retain the best, will foment a radical shift in employment and wages. Top performers who can master AI at high levels will be rewarded with huge pay increases or reduced work time. The best human AI manipulators can work remotely or in office, at a relaxed pace, and outperform the 9-to-5 desk jockeys by degrees of magnitude.
Some will be rewarded. Others will become manual laborers, baristas, or fall into extended unemployment. No matter what happens, the disruptions in labor and productivity are going to be profound and long-lasting. AI is not a one-off technology. It has already improved by leaps and bounds, and, if Moore's Law holds sway, the predictions of Matt Shumer and Mustafa Suleyman might actually be on the conservative side of the argument.
AI could, and probably will, advance in proficiency and reliability at an amazingly rapid pace. Anybody who uses a computer for work should right now be brainstorming - with or without the assistance of AI - how to survive the coming upheaval. Finances, lifestyles, and even basic survival skills must be examined to fit into the evolving new world that's being presented by this intrusive, game-changing technology that prioritizes information over human interaction.
The future is going to be magnificent and horrifying at the same time. I'll be presenting more information in the March 2026 feature article on idleguy.com in two weeks.
For now, let's just say, you've been alerted.
Stocks
The NASDAQ suffered its fifth straight weekly loss. The Dow and S&P lost ground for the fourth time n the past five. Clearly, there's been institutional distribution and retail dip-buying at huge scale. Trading volume is roughly double what it was a year ago, and much of that has been on the downside of all-time highs. A suggestion that stocks may have been a bit overcooked could turn out to be the understatement of the year. Valuations are stretched to perfection while companies in a swath of sectors - from consumer discretionary to information technology - are under assault from AI and plain old profit-taking.
A near-term correction would seem likely. The NASDAQ is already down 5.4% from its October 29, 2025 high (23,958.47). Obviously, it has plenty of room to fall.
Markets are closed Monday for Presidents’ Day, but the week ahead offers a raft of economic data, some delayed still by the October government shutdown, starting with Empire State manufacturing (February) on Tuesday. Wednesday's drops include November and December Housing Starts, December Durable-goods Orders, January Federal Reserve FOMC minutes. On Thursday, the U.S. trade balance for December is reported, along with Initial jobless Claims, Retail and Wholesale inventories (December), February Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing and January's Pending Home Sales.
Inflation comes into focus on Friday with the December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Also, the first reading of 4th quarer Gross Domestic Product (GDP), S&P flash Purchasing Manager Index, December New Home Sales and Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan.
The week ahead will also feature more earnings reports with Walmart, the only Dow component, reporting Thursday morning:
Monday: President's Day (stock and bond markets closed)
Tuesday: (before open) Vulcan Materials (VMC), Medtronic (MDT), ; (after close) Hecla Mining (HL), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Devon Energy (DVN), Toll Brothers (TOL)
Wednesday: (before open) Bausch & Lomb (BLCO), fiverr (FVRR), Analog Devices (ADI), Garmin (GRMN); (after close) eBay (EBAY), Doordash (DASH), Equinox Gold (EQX), Kinross (KGC), Carvana (CVNA), PanAmerican Silver (PAAS)
Thursday: (before open) First Magestic (AG), John Deere (DE), Walmart (WMT), Klarna (KLAR), Wayfair (W), Yeti (YETI); (after close) Newmont Mining (NEM), Akamai (AKAM), Live Nation (LYV), Texas Roadhouse (TXRH), Opendoor (OPEN), Transocean (RIG)
Friday: (before open) Western Union (WU), Lamar (LAMR), Telix (TLX), Anglo Gold Ashanti (AU)
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2026 | 3.70 | 3.68 | 3.63 | 3.62 | 3.62 | 3.57 | 3.52 |
| 01/16/2026 | 3.75 | 3.72 | 3.68 | 3.67 | 3.66 | 3.60 | 3.55 |
| 01/23/2026 | 3.78 | 3.71 | 3.72 | 3.70 | 3.67 | 3.61 | 3.53 |
| 01/30/2026 | 3.72 | 3.73 | 3.75 | 3.67 | 3.69 | 3.61 | 3.48 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3.72 | 3.72 | 3.74 | 3.68 | 3.70 | 3.59 | 3.45 |
| 02/13/2026 | 3.72 | 3.71 | 3.73 | 3.68 | 3.70 | 3.59 | 3.42 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2026 | 3.54 | 3.59 | 3.75 | 3.95 | 4.18 | 4.76 | 4.82 |
| 01/16/2026 | 3.59 | 3.67 | 3.82 | 4.02 | 4.24 | 4.79 | 4.83 |
| 01/23/2026 | 3.60 | 3.67 | 3.84 | 4.03 | 4.24 | 4.78 | 4.82 |
| 01/30/2026 | 3.52 | 3.60 | 3.79 | 4.01 | 4.26 | 4.82 | 4.87 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3.50 | 3.57 | 3.76 | 3.98 | 4.22 | 4.80 | 4.85 |
| 02/13/2026 | 3.40 | 3.43 | 3.61 | 3.81 | 4.04 | 4.64 | 4.69 |
This week's treasury yields reveal more about the stock market than anything else. A flight to the safety of fixed income is clearly underway, with yields of the 10-year note falling 18 basis points and the 30-year bond dipping 16, causing a squeeze in spreads from previously-stretched levels. 2s-10s fell to +64 from +72 last week and full spectrum dropped to +97 from +113.
Spreads and yields are evidence of financial stress which have only recently been prevalent. If anything, the stubbornness of short-dated maturities to budge from the high end of the federal funds target rate (3.50-3.75%) coupled with flattening of the curve suggests a rough path forward. There's no need to be reminded of the Fed's self-imposed entrapment, with inflation still on the mind and the economy straining for momentum. The AI-induced selloff in stocks is likely to continue in fits and starts, but could possibly expand more quickly than many traders assume, which would trigger long maturities even lower, flattening the curve and wiping out profitable spreads.
Nobody makes money in a flat-line situation and that certainly appears to be taking shape. The 10-year yield under 4.00% and the 30-year chasing it down isn't a very competitive structure, especially with foreign buyers on the run. With most analysis seeing the Fed stuck on hold until Kevin Warsh takes over from Jerome Powell in June, a sudden jerk lower in stocks might change some minds in a hurry. The next meeting (March 17-18) is still a month away, so the potential for an emergency cut may grow.
Thursday's big drop on the Dow might have been a sell signal at an institutional level.
Spreads:
2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51
11/7: +56
11/14: +52
11/21: +55
11/28: +55
12/5: +58
12/12: +67
12/19: +68
12/26: +68
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61
11/7: +69
11/14: +70
11/21: +68
11/28: +62
12/5: +97
12/12: +109
12/19: +111
12/26: +111
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13" +97
Oil/Gas
WTI crude closed out the week at $60.58, easing back from last week's finish at $63.50 on some slight easing of tensions in the Middle East. Somebody knows something following Israel's Netanyahu visit to D.C., as President Trump's remarks and tweets suggest that negotiations are still possible, though "all options" (war) remain on the table. The U.S. military command realizes that any kinetic action against Iran will likely result in a protracted conflict, which is maybe what the meeting between Trump, Bibi, and a host of civilians, with no military input, portends.
The markets prefer the dovish path defined by Trump, though the reality is probably quite different and much more messy.
The U.S. national average for gas at the pump rose another three cents, to $2.92 by Sunday.
California ramped up another 12 cents this week, to $4.55 per gallon, the highest in the nation and up 24 cents in just the past two weeks. Washington ($4.12) popped back into the $4+ club. Oregon ($3.61), was up 12 cents. After three weeks under $3.00, Arizona is above $3.00 for second straight week, at $3.15. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma well below any other state, at $2.25, followed by Louisiana ($2.40), Arkansas and Mississippi ($2.43). The remaining Southeast states, from North Carolina ($2.69) west to New Mexico, are all below $2.70, except Florida ($2.87).
In the Northeast, prices remained steady and consistently close to recent lows. Only Pennsylvania ($3.11) was above $3.00. New York held steady at $2.97, along with Vermont ($2.99).
In the midwest region, where the price relief has been significant, Illinois remained the highest, holding at $3.00, up ten cents from two weeks past, with Michigan closer, at $2.98. Kansas was the lowest ($2.46), followed by North Dakota and Iowa ($2.47).
Sub-$3.00 gas was the norm in 41 of the lower 48 states, the same as last week, leaving only California, Washington, Nevada, Oregon, Illinois, Arizona, and Pennsylvania, at $3.00 or above.
Bitcoin
This week: $68,948.18
Last week: $71,145.72
2 weeks ago: $77,242.74
6 months ago: $117,555.50
One year ago: $97,544.53
Five years ago: $55,936.80
With overall liquidity becoming more and more an issue, bitcoin is feeling the pain, nearing a loss of 50% over the past six months. At current levels, anybody who bought into bitcoin in the past 15 months (November 2024) is holding at a loss or, more likely, has already moved on to other pursuits.
It's not going to get any better for bitcoiners or others invested in crypto, it being speculative in the extreme.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 65.32; last week: 63.66
Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 1/16: $4,601.10
Gold price 1/23: $4,983.10
Gold price 1/30: $4,907.50
Gold price 2/6: $4,988.60
Gold price 2/13: $5,063.80
Silver price 1/16: $89.94
Silver price 1/23: $103.26
Silver price 1/30: $85.25
Silver price 2/6: $77.53
Silver price 2/13: $77.27
SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 1/16: $4,595.42
Gold 1/23: $4,989.23
Gold 1/30: $4,886.71
Gold 2/6: $4,964.07
Gold 2/13: $5,041.72
Silver 1/16: $89.94
Silver 1/23: $102.95
Silver 1/30: $84.63
Silver 2/6: $77.98
Silver 2/13: $77.19
Silver got whacked again on Thursday, February 12, dropping it from bids around $83 down to $75. Gold was also clubbed to a lesser extent, rallying on Friday to hold above $5,000.
It's Lunar (Chinese) New Year, so the SGE and SHFE, along with all Chinese stock exchanges are closed until Monday, February 23rd. It will be interesting to watch what the COMEX and LBMA riggers do with gold, and especially, silver pricing with the physical market in China shut down. Of course, there's still trading in Mumbai, Singapore, Dubai, and elsewhere with which to contend, so the week ahead may offer some insight to just how well-positioned Western traders are compared to their Asian counterparts.
Sit back and enjoy the show.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 oz silver coin: | 85.00 | 110.00 | 95.74 | 94.00 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 84.00 | 110.00 | 96.41 | 94.79 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 5,050.00 | 5,563.19 | 5,419.49 | 5,418.28 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 5,069.00 | 5,419.38 | 5,332.83 | 5,357.51 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) took another drop this week, falling to $95.24, a decline of $2.27 from the February 8 price of $97.51 per troy ounce. The weekly movement reflects wider volatility in world markets and between physical and paper prices.
The weekly eBay price survey revealed that retail dealers and casual buyers and sellers are adjusting to severe premiums, likely the latter in terms of dealers, most of which don't have the cash resources to hedge against the recent wild swings. Supposedly, coin shops have been inundated with gold and silver sellers, hocking, according to Bloomberg (which means it's likely fake news) all of grandma's silverware. Most anybody who is selling their bullion or coinage does not appreciate the dynamics of the market and the positions of the small dealers. Premiums at dealers and on ebay are 20-25% for small denominations, so the small stackers are apparently confident that the recent smackdowns are temporary, which is also the opinion of most serious silver analysts.
WEEKEND WRAP
Change is usually good, and, presently, probably necessary. Old hacks need to be retired. Many are no longer useful nor desired.
At the Close, Friday, February 13, 2026:
Dow: 49,500.93, +48.95 (+0.10%)
NASDAQ: 22,546.67, -50.48 (-0.22%)
S&P 500: 6,836.17, +3.41 (+0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 23,326.09, +137.27 (+0.59%)
For the Week:
Dow: -614.74 (-1.23%)
NASDAQ: -484.54 (-2.10%)
S&P 500: -96.13 (-1.39%)
NYSE Composite: +73.28 (+0.32%)
Dow Transports: -549.04 (-2.76%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
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