Recipe for a Correction: Stocks Flat to Lower After Reporting Earnings; Yields Rising on Long-Dated Maturities in Treasury Market

It's been said that bond traders are ten times smarter than their stock hustling counterparts.

Whether or not there's any truth to the statement is hardly relevant. Let's just say bond traders are more diligent and discriminating than their counterparts dealing in equities. Be that as it may, something worth noticing has been unfurling in the flagging treasury market. Amid a stock market mini-meltdown, there's not been a rush to fixed income; the cagy old pros have been selling long-dated maturities, not buying, as would normally be the case in a "flight to quality."

Yield on the 10-year note hit 4.60% on Monday. The 30-year bond was throwing off an eye-catching 5.18%. Those are numbers beyond the psychological levels that have been repeatedly warned and worried over, 4.50% and 5.00%, and, if the smartest guys on Wall Street are selling already, what happens when stocks get really hot and bothered? More than likely, they'll be buying, at yields higher than current levels.

That may happen sooner, but probably later. There will be a run to the safety of finxed income and away from risky stocks, but it may prove to be short-lived. The scale of buying is likely to be at a measured pace. Bonds are much less volatile than stocks, and the managers tasked with trading debt instruments aren't about to go all in at 4.75% on the 10s or 5.25% on 30s. A nibble here, a nibble there. Before you now it, the 10-year, once considered dangerous at 4.50%, will look heavenly at 4.85% and the 30-year at 5.65%, both generous returns - much better than the average dividend yield on most stocks - with what will be perceived as minimal risk.

Rising bond yields are what naturally happens when money is too loose for too long. The American debt machine has rung up nearly $40 trillion in government debt, just at the federal level. States and municipalities, counties, and villages have dug their own debt graves and will continue digging. Individual and corporate debt are at extremes, with credit card debt at an all-time high (at an average of nearly 22%), mortgage failures and foreclosures rising rapidly and more than 40% of recent new car loans underwater, the debt binge is close to reaching its stupefying, cataclysmic climax. Nobody can just keep borrowing and borrowing more to pay off the interest - which is what the government has been doing for 40+ years - indefinitely. Eventually, the numbers just become too grotesque, too large to hide, and too onerous to handle.

U.S. government debt recently passed $39.5 trillion, just a hop, skip, and jump away from the $40 trillion mark. While there's nothing inherently magical about $40 trillion, or even $50 or $60 trillion, large, round numbers do give people reason to pause. The government will spend over $1.1 trillion in interest payments alone this fiscal year and that number is not expected to decline at all for the foreseeable future. At some point - and that point has already been reached by central banks of other major economies - there's reason to doubt the invincibility of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency. It's OK, if you like paying interest on debt incurred years or decades ago for your entire life, but it's not a plan anybody with a free conscious and open mind would choose to pursue. At this juncture, however, there's no plans to make any changes. The government will issue debt, the Fed will cover it, the purchasing power of the backing currency will decline. It's just straight up math, though it does play out rather slowly, as in decades and across generations.

Since the 1970s, the United States has managed to destroy its creditor nation position to become the world's largest debtor. The wealth of the U.S. is all created by debt, and, so far, it's working, though living standards overall have been in decline since the early 2000s and are, in many parts of the country that aren't discussed at fancy parties, getting even worse. Inner cities have become homeless tent centers. Appalachia, always an area of severe poverty, has been completely devastated by a lack of new jobs, drug addiction, and the ultimate ravages of long-term underemployment.

Most people won't look over there and see the depression and hopelessness that prevails, but they are looking at their grocery bills, mortgage or rent payments, insurance and health costs eating away at their weekly or bi-weekly paychecks, and it's not just a little scary, it's very scary. People in their 30s and 40s trying to raise families are scraping by on two salaries. A generation or two ago, they'd have been prosperous and happy. Today's working couples are concerned and cornered by debt and inflation. As soon as they manage to make some headway in their income/expense ratio, gas prices, or food prices, or school fees or property taxes take another bite.

Of course, none of this is of any concern to the stock pushers on Wall Street or the slippery fish floating around congress. They aren't in that "class" of people, after all, and they look out for themselves pretty well, which is one of the reasons why they always appear to be in control, touting the latest discoveries or advancements and pretending that the whole U.S. economy is just fine and dandy, thank you.

They'll never tell you the truth. Those bond guys may be onto something, however.

***

After the usual celebratory opening spike in stocks, the major indices took a nose dive the rest of the day. The Dow was the first to capitulate, dropping into the red before 10:00 am ET. The S&P and NASDAQ were more resistant, bouncing around most of the session in positive territory before closing out with minor losses.

This is exactly the kind of market that portfolio managers don’t want to see during what should be a robust earnings season.

Domino's Pizza (DPZ) reported solid results before he open and ended the day up just more than two percent, at 328.97. Too bad it opened at 350 and got portioned out and devoured throughout the stuffed-crust session.

Irish ultra-low-cost airline carrier, Ryanair (RYAAY), reported a 34% Y/Y drop in its first-quarter profit because of higher jet fuel prices and lower fares, helping explain why investors took profits and ran, sending the stock down 5.85% on Monday.

After the close Monday, reporting were:
Zions Bancorporation (ZION) - down 5% ater reporting solid quarterly results
Crown Holdings (CCK) - beat, raised expectations, stock is flat in pre-market
Steel Dynamics (STLD) - second-quarter profit, revenue rise on improved steel pricing, shares down one percent

Tuesday, before the opening bell, these companies reported Q2 results:
Ally (ALLY) - in-line to beat on bottom line, shares flat
DR Horton (DHI) - earnings beat, but profits down 12%, shares down one percent
Charles Schwab (SCHW) - eps beat, record revenue, shares down 1-2%
General Motors (GM) - earnings beat, boosts guidance, shares down one percent
3M (MMM) - shares rally 7 % after second-quarter earnings beat and higher full-year outlook
Halliburton (HAL) - higher revenue, earnings beat, shares down 4%

Outside of 3M, a pattern, which has already emerged from last week, continues to haunt dealers with intentions for profit-making trades. Earnings reports, good, bad, or otherwise, are being used as a rationale to sell. This implies an immediacy to raising cash or to escape from positions that appear to be facing institutional liquidation. There's three months before the next report, so why not cash out now and buy back in before the next glowing quarterly report, or, move money elsewhere?

It makes plenty of sense considering the mostly outrageous price:value ratio. On that basis, General Motors, the makers of mostly sub-standard, over-priced motor vehicles, appears to be the ripest short of the bunch, sporting a PE above 30 (no, it's not a growth company) and a dividend yield of 0.95% (Yes, grandma, I can turn your $10,000 into $10,095 in a year. "You go run along and play in traffic, sonny.").

There is ample reason to believe that the stock market has already made the trun from bullish to bearish.

The NASDAQ is down 5.85% since June 2nd's all-time high (27,093.90). The S&P is down just over two percent over the same span, but it is the NASDAQ that represents the heart of trading in semis, tech, hyperscalers, Mag7, etc., and that is also the opening narrative for stocks heading into Tuesday's session: Tech rebound. With the NAZ already down nearly six percent, who exactly is buying into that particualr fable?

Institutions want out, but not before they lure retail into the trap. Any gains today will e gone tomorrow. That appears to be the current zeitgeist or corporate strategy. It's not working. People have less and less faith in institutional passive investing every day. Additionally, baby boomers are dying and passing along assets in 401k and other plans to their heirs, who are quickly liquidating them to pay themselves for years of diligent elderly care and a better life.

The longer the lies of the elites continue, the further the actuarial tables tell the real story.

Futures are putting lipstick and mascara on this pig of a market with NASDAQ futures up 400 points prior to the open. Dow futures are up 135; S&P futures are up 33. Bear in mind the NASDAQ can rise 400 or 500 points and still be down 3-4%. It’s nothing more than churning a dead cat that refuses to bounce very much.

Fewer and fewer suckers are being fooled only because there are fewer of them still breathing. There are more sellers than buyers. Recipe for a correction.

At the Close, Monday, July 20, 2026:
Dow: 51,839.26, -307.16 (-0.59%)
NASDAQ: 25,508.07, -12.17 (-0.05%)
S&P 500: 7,443.28, -14.41 (-0.19%)
NYSE Composite: 23,669.65, -147.32 (-0.62%)

WEEKEND WRAP: War Ramps Up Again in Middle East; Oil Prices Explode Higher; Stocks Take on Water, even as Earnings Emerge; Silver Shattered

Anybody with functioning brain cells should be able to grasp the current condition, wherein the only things that cost less this week than last were some stocks, gold, and silver.

Face it, citizens of the world, you're being reamed!

Nobody is safe from the ravages of American exceptionalism gone wild. Especially hard hit are the people living in the Middle East, from Iran to Israel and all points adjacent and in between. Under President Trump and the useless congress that is supposed to be a check and balance on the power of the executive branch, the U.S. government is a runaway freight train to a disastrous future, to say nothing of the psychotic present.

Call it whatever one likes, the war in the Middle East, with Iran as the direct target, is back on with a vengeance. It's only a matter of time before the Iranians commence bombing Israel with increasing devastation. It will come as a response to the U.S. blatantly attacking civilian infrastructure in Iran, hoping to cripple its ability to defend itself and communicate with the citizenry.

The United States continues to act with impunity, against dictates of the Geneva Convention and other treaties concerning the conduct of war. It's obvious that President Trump and his closest advisors couldn’t care less about treaties and any kind of peacekeeping or humanitarian effort.

For what it's worth, most Americans are opposed to what the U.S. is doing militarily in the Middle East and Ukraine. Upwards of 60% of people polled recently think continued strikes against Iran are a bad idea and that percentage also applies toward Ukraine. People generally regard war as abhorrent and unwise. In a nutshell, anybody who cheers on continued bombing and military conflict for political purposes is an ass-hole, a group that includes not only the president himself and his advisors, but nearly everybody in the Pentagon and on Capitol Hill.

The United States is being run into the ground by war-mongering neocons whose only goals are money and power. Americans, and, indeed, the rest of the world deserves better.

Stocks

Overall, it was a bummer of a week for stockholders, especially in the tech sector, which continues to be ravaged by fears of capex exceeding reasonable returns and some well-timed profit-taking. The week was largely a spectacle of companies declaring better-than-expected earnings for the second quarter, only to see share prices tank on the news. That kind of "sell the news" mentality bodes ill for the weeks and months ahead. Not only have many Americans lost trust in institutions, they are growingly losing faith in the stock market and the economy, which seems to be running on past glory rather than hopes for increased productivity and growth.

The U.S. infrastructure continues to crumble even as plans are being made for more stress on the grid via data centers around the nation. The fight in local communities regarding data centers has grown into a fierce battle. This week New York Governor Kathy Hochul became the first to declare a state-wide ban on building new data centers. Other local counties across the country have proposed and passed similar bans, citing rising electrical bills for consumers and extensive draining of local water supplies.

Second quarter earnings will be front and center again this week, with tech names scattered throughout the landscape of companies reporting. It's a real smorgasbord of reporting, covering everything from retail, to airlines, banking, to mining.

Monday: (before open) Domino's Pizza (DPZ), AMC (AMC), Ryanair (RYAAY); (after close) Zions Bancorporation (ZION), Crown Holdings (CCK), Steel Dynamics (STLD)

Tuesday: (before open) Ally (ALLY), DR Horton (DHI), Charles Schwab (SCHW), General Motors (GM), 3M (MMM), Halliburton (HAL); (after close) Alaska Airlines (ALK), EastWest Bank (EWBC)

Wednesday: (before open) Moody's (MCO), Philip Morris (PM), AT&T (T), Pulte Group (PHM); (after close) IBM (IBM), Tesla (TSLA), Alphabet (GOOGL), Texas Instruments (TXN), Crown Castle (CCI), CSX (CSX), Kinder Morgan (KMI)

Thursday: (before open) Cliffs (CLF), American Airlines (AAL), Blackstone Group (BX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Tractor Supply (TSCO), Nokia (NOK); (after close) Newmont Mining (NEM), Intel (INTC), Deckers (DECK), Sallie Mae (SLM)

Friday: (before open) Charter Communications (CHTR), Verizon (VZ), HCA Healthcare (HCA), American Express (AXP), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)

Conversely, data releases will be slim, most of the important announcements coming Friday, with Building Permits for June before the opening bell, floowed by New Home Sales at 10:00 am ET.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
06/12/2026	3.69	3.70	3.70	3.78	3.79	3.82	3.86
06/18/2026	3.69	3.69	3.74	3.83	3.85	3.92	4.00
06/26/2026	3.70	3.70	3.75	3.83	3.89	3.94	3.94
07/02/2026	3.70	3.73	3.81	3.82	3.91	3.98	3.96
07/10/2026	3.71	3.74	3.81	3.85	3.94	3.99	4.06
07/17/2026	3.73	3.75	3.80	3.85	3.91	3.96	4.01

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
06/12/2026	4.09	4.12	4.21	4.34	4.48	4.98	4.97
06/18/2026	4.19	4.19	4.23	4.34	4.46	4.91	4.90
06/26/2026	4.07	4.09	4.12	4.23	4.38	4.87	4.87
07/02/2026	4.14	4.16	4.23	4.35	4.49	4.99	4.98
07/10/2026	4.21	4.22	4.30	4.42	4.56	5.08	5.06
07/17/2026	4.18	4.21	4.28	4.40	4.55	5.07	5.06

Treasury yields remained elevated, with 10-year note yields holding at 4.55% and 30-year bond yields at 5.06 as the week ended. The Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh doesn't seem at all interested in intervening in the natural flow of money and they are becoming more and more tight-lipped about any of their proposed actions, which, considering the current environment of crosswinds - inflation on one side and employment on the other - gives the markets practically nothing from which to draw conclusions.

Spreads deviated, with 2s-10s higher at +37, but full spectrum (30-days - 30 years) dipping two basis points, to +133. There's absolutely nothing to be ascertained from this data other than the Fed is not about to move in any particular direction unless there's clear evidence, one way or the other. There is an FOMC meeting next week (July 28-29), but it appears that the Fed is going to hold steady on rates.

Reiterating last week's sentiment, smart money continues to contend that the Fed will do nothing until after the midterm elections, which would mean the December 9 FOMC meeting at the earliest, but re-engagement by the U.S. and Iran in a military confrontation throws all predictions into the blender. It's getting close to a situation in which the odds for a recession or blowout inflation are nearly equal. There's a chance Americans and Europeans may see both over the next 12-18 months.

If stocks continue to show weakness, there could be a considerable flow of money into fixed-income, given that yields appear to be generous at present. Rising prices for energy could be a catalyst for not only a severe decline in equities, but also a huge rally in bonds, though locking in yields for any maturity past two years seems a bit on the risky side. If, for instance, the 10-year pops above five percent and the 30-year above 5.65%, today's yields would be a losing proposition. With inflation/recession odds nearly equal, there are likely to be more losers than winners in both stocks and bonds given the uncertainties facing the various markets.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133

Oil/Gas

August WTI crude futures closed out the week at $81.77, a major boost from last week's closeout at $71.43 on the NY Mercantile Exchange. The obvious reason for the sudden blowout in oil is the resumption of serious military action in the region, with strikes and counter-strikes coming from the main protagonists, the U.S. and Iran. While the U.S. has largely stuck to destroying military installations near and around the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iran, they've also begun hammering infrastructure inside the country, targeting radio and cell towers in an attempt to cut off communications.

Iran has countered with strikes on airbases in U.S.-allied countries, including Jordan, where, supposedly, two American soldiers will killed, bringing the "official" death toll of Americans to a barely believable 16. OK. While the U.S. is supposedly winning the war, why is the cost of filling up my SUV continuing to go up?

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $3.82 last week and $3.97 this week, as the Middle East tinderbox exploded with military strikes throughout the region, the MOU between the U.S. and Iran completely shattered and an energy crisis dead ahead.

Reserves have been substantially drained by major economies around the world to keep prices under control, but they have largely reached bottoms. With reserves exhausted, conditions are ripe for a return to $5 gas in the U.S., as the president completely disregards the welfare of U.S. citizens. Prices should reach near-record levels in coming weeks as there seems to be no path toward resolution other than annihilation. It's a sad state of affairs.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.47 (+0.13)
Washington: $5.00 (+0.06)
Indiana (lowest): $3.36 (+0.11)
Oklahoma: $3.52 (+0.16)
Mississippi: $3.54 (+0.13)
Florida: $3.97 (+0.17)
Illinois: $4.15 (+0.09)
Pennsylvania: $4.19 (+0.24)
New York: $4.10 (+0.05)
Maryland: $3.99 (+0.14)
Michigan: $3.15 (+0.22)
Texas: $3.55 (+0.16)
Georgia: $3.74 (+0.20)

On Sunday, July 12th, there are seventeen (17) states with average prices above $4.00, with 31 below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.41) and Alaska ($4.70), with just one above $5 (California) and one right at the mark (Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past eight weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging below $4.00 ($3.52-3.74) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region a close second, prices ranging from $3.63 to $3.88. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest. Indiana ($3.36) remained the lowest due to Governor Mike Braun suspending state taxes at the pump. On July 2nd he extended the suspension into the first week of August.

Bitcoin

This week: $64,539.98
Last week: $64,092.58
2 weeks ago: $62,699.50
6 months ago: $92,019.80
One year ago: $118,429.20
Five years ago: $34,280.88

Bitcoin was relatively flat on the week, which is somewhat surprising, considering the problems in congress getting the CLARITY act to the finish line before the August recess. The bill is supposed to provide regulatory guidelines for crypto, but there are still sticking points related to stablecoins, DeFi, and blockchain developers. The bill was originally planned for passage coinciding with Independence Day, July 4, but the attempt to tie slave money on a blockchain to freedom and liberty failed miserably, as it should have.

The bill needs to overcome a 60-vote threshold due to filibuster rules in the Senate. It is arguably some of the worst financial regulation mishmash ever created. By that standard, however, it's surprising the money-grubbing bandits in congress haven't fully endorsed it.

Bitcoin and crypto in general remain among the worst investments of 2026. Bitcoin is down 26% year-to-date.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 71.84; last week: 68.83

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 6/18: $4,172.90
Gold price 6/26: $4,103.00
Gold price 7/2: $4,187.30
Gold price 7/10: $4,128.90
Gold price 7/17: $4,023.00

Silver price 6/18: $65.38
Silver price 6/26: $59.60
Silver price 7/2: $62.81
Silver price 7/10: $60.30
Silver price 7/17: $56.22

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 6/18: $4,210.00
Gold 6/26: $4,089.00
Gold 7/2: $4,122.76
Gold 7/10: $4,119.70
Gold 7/17: $4,016.89

Silver 6/18: $65.65
Silver: 6/26: $59.16
Silver 7/2: $60.93
Silver 7/10: $59.85
Silver 7/17: $55.91

Precious metals took another in an elongated series of hits last week, especially silver, which is now down more than 50% from previous highs in January. It's a distressing situation, which may be signaling disinflation or general demand destruction on a grand scale. Given the military uses for silver and the continuing shortage of metal, however, there could come a moment at which traders stop seeking a bottom and begin going long again.

Central banks are continuing to buy gold as a Tier 1` asset, outpacing Treasuries, and they're getting their loot at a discount. Dollar strength appears to have won the day for U.S. interests, but one has to wonder just how long the might greenback can remain elevated. Gold is not about to replace it, at least not in the very near term, but accumulation of tons of gold bars by national central banks surely has the dollar squarely in the crosshairs. Prices being as low as they are at present suggests a buying opportunity for those preferring patience over instant success.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	63.99	74.22	67.58	66.17
1 oz silver bar:	57.67	81.55	69.54	69.23
1 oz gold coin:	4102.07	4304.79	4228.40	4236.95
1 oz gold bar:	4164.79	4363.89	4225.37	4210.40

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) dropped substantially, closing the week at $68.13, for a decline of $4.32 per troy ounce from the July 12 price of $72.45.

WEEKEND WRAP

With worldwide tension mounting over the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, there is a silver lining. Even though ambitious senators and congressional members invoked the name of Lindsey Graham over the past week and especially on the Sunday morning talk shows, he remains dead, a condition neither an antichrist nor a messiah can change.

The world is a better place when war-mongers are eliminated from the herd and Senator Graham, responsible for the deaths of thousands, if not millions of innocent people, is better off soon forgotten.

At the Close, Friday, July 17, 2026:
Dow: 52,146.42, -406.55 (-0.77%)
NASDAQ: 25,520.24, -361.70 (-1.40%)
S&P 500: 7,457.69, -76.08 (-1.01%)
NYSE Composite: 23,816.97, -135.30 (-0.56%)

For the Week:
Dow: -490.59 (-0.93%)
NASDAQ: -761.37 (-2.90%)
S&P 500: -117.70 (-1.55%)
NYSE Composite: -108.10 (-0.45%)
Dow Transports: -546.01 (-2.46%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

America's Middle Class Under Assault; General Malaise and Poor Sentiment Strikes Wall Street; Oil, Interest Rates Spike

Four days into the current earnings season, sentiment has shifted from a case of the market could do no wrong to taking profits at the earliest occasion and selling off losers before the bottom falls out.

Through Thursday's closing bell, the Dow Industrials have lost 84 points, the NASDAQ is down 400, and the bellwether S&P 500 has shed 41 points. All of this is becoming a bit unnerving for the investor class, as if they're about to be catching down to the pain and loathing of the bottom 80%. Those, the vast bulk of the U.S. population that has lesser exposure to stocks but is more attuned to the ravages of inflation or even unstable prices and even more unstable political leadership, is worn out, tapped out, using credit cards for everyday expenses, and growing more and more unsettled by the day.

Two earners with full-time jobs and kids are barely able to make ends meet these days, what with high food and energy prices, ballooning house prices and attendant mortgages, property taxes increasing far beyond normal inflation and just about everything else costing 20-40% more than just a few short years ago. Unsustainably high housing prices with attendant food and energy inflation is bringing the national economy to a standstill, with any excess going to the oligarch monopoly corporations like Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Ebay, and Microsoft, all of which are facing severe headwinds as the world struggles through 2026.

Appetites for high fees, high taxes, and high levels of propaganda are growing slim. It's enough to see the government take 25% or more out of everybody's paycheck, but the financial squeeze becomes unbearable facing skyrocketing prices for services like insurance, car repairs, and medical expenses. The bone-crushing weight of excessive price acceleration has turned the country into little more than an open wage-slave plantation.

Wall Street may have profited well from this condition up until now, but the bloom has come off the rose and it's beginning to affect stocks in very disturbing ways. Thus far, just days into second quarter earnings breakouts, companies reporting solid results are seeing share prices drop. Those not meeting or exceeding expectations are feeling even more pain. Take, for example, Netflix (NFLX), which reported in-line Thursday night, though internals continued to crumble. The stock is sliding 11 percent in the pre-market as the pre-eminent streaming service is caught between an inability to raise prices in a fiercely competitive environment, declining subscriptions, and a round of poorly-received original content. The company, though still profitable, is on its knees when it comes to consumer satisfaction. Nobody seems willing to pay premium prices for sub-standard offerings.

Alongside the general malaise in consumer-facing companies is the growing perception that AI is not nearly able to justify the expensive, expansive buildout and investors are being shaken out from positions in the headline users and chip-related concerns.

After the shearing stocks suffered on Thursday, Friday's open portends outright spillage, as tensions and fighting escalated for a sixth straight day in the Persian Gulf, oil prices are spiking higher (WTI crude futures above $80/barrel) and Friday's stock futures are tanking. Dow futures are down 330 points, NASDAQ futures are off 550, and S&P futures are cratering, down 70 points with 45 minutes until the opening bell.

Yields are also chiming in, with the 10-year note hitting 4.59% and the 30-year at 5.12% Thursday.

It's not helping that the Northeast and Midwest are being blanketed with smoke from Canadian wildfires.

Realistically, there's no good way out from the global conditions that have been set down by political and economic policies of the past. The debt explosion that borrows from the future is beginning to be reflected in the present.

At the Close, Thursday, July 16, 2026: Dow: 52,552.97, -105.67 (-0.20%) NASDAQ: 25,881.95, -387.28 (-1.47%) S&P 500: 7,533.77, -38.63 (-0.51%) NYSE Composite: 23,952.27, +79.74 (+0.33%)

Earnings Solid Overall; Sell the News in Play; Gold, Silver Continue Under Pressure

With CPI and PPI for June in the rear-view mirror, traders can focus on earnings for the rest of the week. The general consensus is positive. Many companies are reporting earnings beats, spurring the market higher.

A number of big names reported second quarter earnings Thursday morning:

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) - record profit, $100 billion Arizona investment, shares down 4% pre-market
US Bancorp (USB) - Top and bottom beat, stock down one percent
State Street (STT) - In-line report, stock down two percent
United Health (UNH) - Big beat, revises guidance higher, shares up six percent
Abbot Labs (ABT) - Strong quarter, raises forecast, shares up 4% pre-market
GE Aerospace (GE) - Beats expectations, raises guidance, the stock falls 3%

June retail sales were up a modest 0.2%, the smallest monthly increase in five months. Falling prices for gas at the pump depressed the overall picture. Motor vehicles and parts dealers grew sales by 1.9%, e-commerce) rose 1.9%, and sporting goods and hobby stores added 1.3%. May’s figure was revised upward, from a 0.9% gain to a full 1.0%, which matters for context.

Other than earnings, escalation in the Middle East, and an OK sales report, there isn't much to move stocks, though there seems to be a "sell the news" attitude, with solid earnings reports being met with selling.

Precious metals continue to be abused. Silver fell below $56 this morning and gold dropped below $4000. It's apparent the LBMA has not relinquished control over paper markets, skewing prices to reflect their abhorrence of real money.

It never ends.

At the Close, Wednesday, July 15, 2026:
Dow: 52,658.64, +150.34 (+0.29%)
NASDAQ: 26,269.23, +162.23 (+0.62%)
S&P 500: 7,572.40, +28.81 (+0.38%)
NYSE Composite: 23,872.53, +25.93 (+0.11%)

PPI Soft in June, Down 0.3%; Market Reaction Subdued as WTI Crude Approaches $80/Barrel; IBM Bellwether Drops 25%, Should Continue to Fall

On Tuesday, the BLS produced a rosy June CPI, with inflation easing due to lower oil and gas prices. That didn't inspire as big a rally as some may have expected, since lower inflation would encourage the Fed to keep interest rates where they are or even lower them. Another possibility is that the market is simply exhausted. Stocks have been sailing right along since 2023, with only minor breaks for presidential actions, specifically, Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs in April, 2025, and the recent U.S.-Iran conflict from March.

Profits have been easy pickings, and there's a good possibility that institutional investors have seen enough, made enough, and are cycling out.

Still, stocks did show gains, despite the fallout from IBM's 25% drop, the worst in the company's history, as companies slash budgets for software and consulting, and Big Blue issued an ill-timed earnings warning. Anybody with a sense of history will understand why a bellwether stock like IBM should be trading at or below $100/share as opposed to the current fantasy of $217 to be considered fair value. When that happens - and it will - stocks will be worth buying again. The monstrous drop in shares of IBM was like a warning shot across the bows of many Wall Street trading desks.

The action in markets on Tuesday was strongly suggestive of recession fears emerging. The U.S. economy, despite the punditry and hype, could be leveling out at stall speed with GDP probably the worst measurement possible. There's no jobs growth and prospects for the next 6-12 months are cloudy at best.

So, today, the BLS follows up with a dovish PPI:

The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.3 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.6 percent in May and 1.1 percent in April. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 5.5 percent for the 12 months ended in June.

The June decline in the index for final demand can be attributed to prices for final demand goods, which fell 1.4 percent. In contrast, the index for final demand services moved up 0.2 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.1 percent in June after jumping 0.8 percent in May. For the 12 months ended in June, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 5.1 percent.

Market reaction was once again muted, though not without the customary knee-jerk response in stock futures, which leapt higher.

With the open less than half an hour ahead, Dow futures are up 142 points, NASDAQ futures are ahead by 181, and S&P futures are up 21 points, not exactly a ringing endorsement, but good enough to keep traders busy.

Gold also got a boost, just like it did yesterday, only to give back most of the gains. Silver is moribund at $58.65. Gold: $4070 per troy ounce.

WTI crude oil approaching $80 per barrel is keeping a lid on everything.

At the Close, Tuesday, July 14, 2026:
Dow: 52,508.27, +9.63 (+0.02%)
NASDAQ: 26,107.01, +233.83 (+0.90%)
S&P 500: 7,543.59, +28.25 (+0.38%)
NYSE Composite: 23,846.60, -49.45 (-0.21%)