WEEKEND WRAP: A Quiet Week Ahead as U.S.A. Celebrates 250 Years, 3rd Quarter Commences; May Be a Slow Summer with Lower Gas Prices

Editor's Note: Being that it's a quiet holiday weekend and the immediacy of a medical issue (friend with appendicitis), Money Daily is going to dispatch with most of the usual commentary. We'll pick things up on Tuesday. --FR

The United States has surpassed 250 years of existence. The next 250 we'll leave to future historians.

Stocks

All the major indices ramped higher into the holiday weekend, the Dow posting its fourth straight weekly gain and sixth in the last seven. Friday's Non-farm Payroll report from the BLS had minimal effect, with 57,000 new jobs reported, and prior months revised lower. The Dow and NASDAQ took radically different takes on the employment condition, with the Dow spiking to record highs and the NASDAQ taking another bump lower.

Second quarter earnings are still a week off, with banks and financial companies reporting the week beginning July 13. In the week ahead, just a few early reports will be released. On Wednesday, Helen of Troy (HELE) and Levi-Strauss (LEVI) report. Thursday, WD-40 (WDFC) and Pepsico (PEP), with Friday reserved for Delta Airlines (DAL).

U.S. balance of Trade gets reported on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Wholesale Inventories for June and Fed Minutes from the June meeting are released. Thursday's report of Existing Home Sales for June leads the housing market. The Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count is Friday. A pretty light week overall.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
05/29/2026	3.72	3.71	3.71	3.69	3.78	3.78	3.79
06/05/2026	3.71	3.71	3.71	3.78	3.78	3.81	3.88
06/12/2026	3.69	3.70	3.70	3.78	3.79	3.82	3.86
06/18/2026	3.69	3.69	3.74	3.83	3.85	3.92	4.00
06/26/2026	3.70	3.70	3.75	3.83	3.89	3.94	3.94
07/02/2026	3.70	3.73	3.81	3.82	3.91	3.98	3.96

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
05/29/2026	3.98	4.06	4.13	4.27	4.45	4.98	4.99
06/05/2026	4.17	4.22	4.29	4.41	4.55	5.03	5.01
06/12/2026	4.09	4.12	4.21	4.34	4.48	4.98	4.97
06/18/2026	4.19	4.19	4.23	4.34	4.46	4.91	4.90
06/26/2026	4.07	4.09	4.12	4.23	4.38	4.87	4.87
07/02/2026	4.14	4.16	4.23	4.35	4.49	4.99	4.98

Treasury yields reversed course this week on continued speculation that the Federal Reserve would hike the federal funds target rate in an effort to stave off inflation, though there remains scant evidence that the Fed entertains any such plans other the usual "dot plot" of FOMC members, which are only opinions and usually incorrect. Nonetheless, 10-year notes and 30-year bonds, crept closer to the Maginot lines at 4.50% and 5.00%, respectively.

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, expectations that the Fed would raise rates at either the July or September meetings moved considerably, with an 80% likelihood that rates would remain at the 3.50-3.75% level in July (7/29) and an even split between 3.50-3.75% and 3.75-4.00% at the September meeting (9/16). Spreads on 2s-10s and full spectrum widened.

Smart money says the Fed does nothing until after the midterm elections, which would mean the December 9 FOMC meeting at the earliest.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128

Oil/Gas

August WTI crude futures closed out the week at $68.78 on the NY Mercantile Exchange, dropping from last week's closing price of $70.24, as the fragile peace in the Middle East is extended and Americans celebrate 250 years of independence from British rule.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $3.81 last week and $3.72 this week, as President Trump cajoles and threatens Big Oil over the price of a gallon of unleaded regular. His contention that gas prices should be lower is based upon the recent prices for crude oil, which is back to levels of late February and early March. The national average price at the pump was around $3.15 at the time. The president fails to take into account that the oil companies must deplete gas that cost considerably more before lowering the price to meet the current reality. Gas has been trending lower and should continue to do so, as long as peace in the Middle East is maintained.

Reserves have been substantially drained by major economies around the world to keep prices under control, but those will need to be rebuilt. The IEA continues to suggest that there will be a glut in 2027 of around four million barrels a day, a condition which, if achieved, will send gas prices well below $3.00.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.33 (-0.06)
Washington: $5.02 (-0.14)
Indiana (lowest): $3.05 (-0.17)
Oklahoma : $3.24 (-0.06)
Mississippi: $3.36 (-0.06)
Florida: $3.76 (-0.02)
Illinois: $3.96 (-0.15)
Pennsylvania: $3.95 (-0.06)
New York: $4.03 (-0.07)
Maryland: $3.69 (-0.05)
Michigan: $4.95 (-0.14)
Texas: $3.27 (+0.03)
Georgia: $3.50 (-0.04)

On Sunday, July 5th, there are six (6) states with average prices above $4.00, with 42 below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.35) and Alaska ($4.77), with just two above $5 (California, Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past six weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging well below $4.00 ($3.24-3.50) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region a close second, prices ranging from $3.44 to $3.60. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest. Indiana ($3.05) remained the lowest due to Governor Mike Braun suspending state taxes at the pump. On July 2nd he extended the suspension into the first week of August.

Bitcoin

This week: $62,699.50
Last week: $60,194.49
2 weeks ago: $64,068.87
6 months ago: $92,624.93
One year ago: $108,114.00
Five years ago: $33,513.73

Bitcoin slumped to a low near $57,000 on July 2nd, the lowest price since September, 2024. The price of an imaginary "coin" rebounded over the weekend, but to levels that are insignificant in the long scheme of things.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 67.66; last week: 69.12

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 6/5: $4,353.90
Gold price 6/12: $4,239.90
Gold price 6/18: $4,172.90
Gold price 6/26: $4,103.00
Gold price 7/2: $4,187.30

Silver price 6/5: $68.00
Silver price 6/12: $68.12
Silver price 6/18: $65.38
Silver price 6/26: $59.60
Silver price 7/2: $62.81

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 6/5: $4,327.57
Gold 6/12: $4,218.23
Gold 6/18: $4,210.00
Gold 6/26: $4,089.00
Gold 7/2: $4,122.76

Silver 6/5: $67.83
Silver 6/12: $68.00
Silver 6/18: $65.65
Silver: 6/26: $59.16
Silver 7/2: $60.93

Here's what we said last week, which is still relevant:

Notably, amid the deconstruction of the gold/silver complex at the hands of the COMEX and LBMA, the gold:silver ratio has sprung higher, posting a figure of 69.12, quite a difference from the last week in January, at silver's peak when the ratio slumped below 50.

With the ratio once again elevated, there are three choices for silver buyers and they are the usual: Buy, Sell, or Hold.

Those with silver in hand have optionality working for them. Considering many have a cost basis somewhere in the range of $10 to $20, holding works well, though both buying and selling can be put into play depending on sentiment and time horizon. One might, for example, choose to sell some of one's holdings if they believe silver's price is to be further eroded, though the proper time for paring down the stack would have been a better prospect four to six months ago.

Buying makes sense should one adheres to the school of thought that the price of silver has over-corrected and is indeed poised for a move higher. Indications from the GSR (gold:silver ratio) are supportive of that line of thinking. Adding, say, 100 ounces to a stack of 1000 with a basis of $17, would move the basis higher, to 20.91 for all 1100 ounces, still highly profitable and even moreso should the price actually rise and hold at higher levels. Similar directional bets can be made with gold, which seems to have bottomed, though one can never be too sure of what the criminal counterfeiters have in mind.

No doubt, precious metals remain overall in a buyer's market, with spot prices the lowest in close to eight months.

It needs to be understood that 2024 and 2025 were banner years for both metals and a pullback was a natural occurrence. How much further precious metals will be pressured is a function of the willingness of the LBMA and COMEX to continue their outrageous price suppression tactics, seemingly never to end until the dollar is dust, fiat currencies are extinguished and physical demand flourishes. That may be a long time coming. In the meantime, stocking up at low levels at a regular tempo using dollar cost averaging or other quiet accumulation practices cannot be criticized even if prices continue to trend lower. After all, gold and silver are money, and money in one's own hand is an unbeatable strategy for wealth accumulation.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	65.00	83.00	72.47	70.00
1 oz silver bar:	64.33	83.45	74.92	75.61
1 oz gold coin:	4250.00	4743.43	4424.58	4405.00
1 oz gold bar:	4200.00	4428.69	4343.56	4355.67

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) held steady, finishing the week at $73.25, for a gian of 21 cents per troy ounce from the June 28 price of $73.04.

WEEKEND WRAP

It's July. Wall Street usually steps back a bit at this time and volumes are generally lower. It appears that the U.S. may go through most of the summer without any major events happening outside the World Cup, Major League Baseball and the tennis U.S. Open. The Fed, under the fresh chairmanship of Kevin Warsh is unlikely to do anything rash. Stocks probably won't turn one way or the other until there's some kind of meaningful change, either in the geo-political sphere or the AI buildout.

The one area which may see movement is in precious metals, which have been surpressed severely since making all-time highs in January. Even a modest rally from current levels could leave gold and silver flat for the year, though still well off the January highs.

At the Close, Friday, July 2, 2026:
Dow: 52,900.07, +594.83 (+1.14%)
NASDAQ: 25,832.67, -207.36 (-0.80%)
S&P 500: 7,483.24, +0.01 (+0.00%)
NYSE Composite: 23,957.08, +219.90 (+0.93%)

For the Week:
Dow: +1023.96 (+1.97%)
NASDAQ: +535.05 (+2.12%)
S&P 500: +129.22 (+1.76%)
NYSE Composite: +267.85 (+1.13%)
Dow Transports: +189.28 (+0.87%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Stocks Continue to Rally; Futures Race Higher on Employment Data (57,000 jobs in June); Happy 250, America!

With the BLS June Non-farm payroll report out at 8:30 am ET, here's how the major averages have fared over the first three days of this shortened week.

As of Wednesday's closing bell, the Dow is up 429 thanks primarily to Alphabet being added to the index on Monday. The NASDAQ is up 742 points (2.93%), and the S&P is ahead by 129 points. The week is bifurcated, with Monday and Tuesday the last two sessions of the second quarter. Wednesday and Thursday are the first two days of the third quarter and markets are closed on Friday.

Wednesday's mid-day reversal was notable. The Dow had been up more than 400 points by noon, but old off all afternoon to end the session lower. The other indices followed a similar pattern, though the NASDAQ spent almost the entire session in the red. There's a cohort of analysts believing that the third quarter might be a bit bumpy, though their theory, as mentioned in Money Daily on Wednesday, fails to consider that second quarter earnings are expected to be very strong. As earnings reports begin to flow to the street next week, one thing to watch for is selling on strong reports. We've seen this kind of action before, indicative of overall momentum exhaustion and profit-taking at high levels.

Should that kind of action become normative in the early sessions led by earnings, it would offer a clue that stocks are hitting unsustainable levels. May happen, but there's also the distinct possibility that stocks will just continue to surge higher on what's been fairly solid economic data and second quarter earnings.

The June employment report from the BLS showed the country created 57,000 net new jobs, below consensus estimates, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. The knee-jerk reflex reaction in the futures market was euphoric, the market once again using pretzel logic to goose stocks higher, the thinking being one of poor employment triggering rate cuts at the Fed to stimulate the economy, the exact opposite of what the expert class had been predicting. In a sense, they're both wrong, as the Fed is very likely to do nothing concerning rate adjustments until after September and possibly through the end of the year.

All stock futures were already higher prior to the BLS announcement, but screamed higher on the release. Oddly enough, precious metals were not unceremoniously dumped, but rather, rallied, with gold up nearly $100, above $4,100, and silver peaking over $61.

There are assorted theories and analyses that rely on government data to reach their conclusions about market and economic activity, many of them slanted by varying degrees on data that is either seasonally adjusted or clouded by assumptions built into models. With the new Federal Reserve under the chairmanship of Kevin Warsh, these projections and prognostications - many by some of the leading banking and financial institutions - are likely to draw false conclusions because the Fed is returning to a policy that is less open and less accommodating than those of Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell, which encouraged front-running and speculation.

The long-standing policy of the Fed through the Greenspan years was more stand-offish and opaque and that's the direction Warsh is moving towards. He's also openly stated that the Fed would seek to move away from reliance on government data in an effort to be better informed on the realities of markets and economics in real terms. Thus, with forecasting policy direction now shredded out of existence, predicting the future of rate movement and general economic activity will be more of what you know rather than who you know. It's a welcome change.

Happy 4th of July, America. 250 years is good enough cause for celebration no matter the economic conditions.

At the Close, Wednesday, July 1, 2026:
Dow: 52,305.24, -13.96 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 26,040.03, -173.69 (-0.66%)
S&P 500: 7,483.23, -16.13 (-0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 23,737.18, -97.05 (-0.41%)

Stocks Finish on High Note as Second Quarter Closes with Massive Gains; What Lies Ahead May Be a Little More Difficult to Discern

The second quarter closed out on Tuesday, with stocks making some fairly substantial gains, the Dow closing at a record high for the second straight session, the S&P finishing just a few ticks below 7,500, and the NASDAQ gaining more than 1 1/2 percent.

Now that Alphabet Class A Shares (GOOGL) have been added to the Dow Industrials, it's a safe bet that record highs for the 30-stock index will become standard fare. The NASDAQ and S&P have a higher hill to climb in order to regain recent all-time highs. Still, the three major indices put in solid quarters, if only because of the fortuitous timing of President Trump's call for a ceasefire at the end of March, where stocks found a bottom. This made for an easy trade for those with inside information. The massive gains from April through the end of June may be based on suspicious sources.

The Dow was up 15.71% from March 31 to June 30. Over the same time span, the S&P 500 gained 14.87% and the NASDAQ rose 21.41%. Putting those quarterly figures in annualized perspective, the trio would be up anywhere from 60-80%, which would be incredible, especially since stocks are already considered to be wildly overvalued.

Staying with the rigged markets theme, might not July 1 mark the ultimate best time to take profits and skedaddle for the summer? Seems to be a willingness by some parties to angle quarter by quarter as the best means by which to land a whale or two investors. Tuesday's window dressing closes on the majors suggests such a plan may be afoot.

Discontinuing the current rally has many skeptics on watch, though their theory runs up against what may be a propitious period of second quarter earnings reports. There also is the prospect for the resumption of real hostilities with guns and bombs in the gulf region to consider. However, since narrative seems to be all that matters, rallying back to all-time highs on the NASDAQ and S&P needs to be factored into any trading calculus. As is the usual case, if everybody knew everything that was about to happen, everybody would be rich.

There have been some recent reports of buyer's remorse at the corporate level concerning AI replacements of humans over the past six months or so. A number of high-level managers are suggesting that AI isn't actually doing the job of laid-off, mid-tier employees, the costs savings promised not materializing as suggested. If the disappointment is widespread, it may show up in any number of earnings reports, keeping stocks on a leash through second quarter earnings season. Additionally, there are two FOMC meetings during the third quarter, one on July 28-29 and the later running through September 15 and 16. The impact of the Fed's action or non-action will have profound effects on market sentiment as there's a 66% chance that the FOMC will keep rates at 3.50-3.75% and 33% possibility that they will raise rates to 3.75-4.00% at the July meeting according to CME's FedWatch tool.

While raising the federal funds target rate would have a chilling effect on stocks and bonds, consensus, so far, seems to be in the stand still camp, though September could be of a different mind altogether. Calls for rate hikes on the heels of bad inflation readings through the gulf war scenario are tied to what were higher oil and gas prices, which have now subsided considerably. From a chartist's perspective, the likelihood of a severe stock turndown seems faint, being that the last serious threat to markets was merely three months ago. Middle ground, with stocks gyrating over the quarter might be the correct analysis of what comes next.

With stock futures solidly in the red Wednesday morning, market participants may be waiting for the ISM Manufacturing PMI for June, due out at 10:00 am. There may be cause for celebration or remorse, depending on the report. Manufacturing in the U.S. has been steady for months. June's level may be a non-event.

Heading into the session, Dow futures are down 130 points; NASDAQ futures are falling by 245; and, S&P futures are trending lower by about 17 points. As has been the recent trend, futures have been unreliable in predicting the open market's daily moves. They are not any serious indication of anything. Gold and silver continue to languish, up against inflation and rate hike impetus. Thursday's jobs report is on deck, but there isn't likely to be a surprise as the JOLTS number and this morning's ADP National Employment Report showed private employers added 98,000 jobs in June, a reasonable figure well within consensus expectations.

The answer to the question of whether it's "full speed ahead" for stocks or a pause in the narrative remains a tricky one.

At the Close, Tuesday, June 30, 2026:
Dow: 52,319.20, +136.46 (+0.26%)
NASDAQ: 26,213.72, +393.57 (+1.52%)
S&P 500: 7,499.36, +58.93 (+0.79%)
NYSE Composite: 23,834.23, +31.53 (+0.13%)

Dow Industrials Add Alphabet to the 30 Stock Roster, Dow Jumps to All-Time High as Speculation Remains a Key Driver

Need a boost? Change your socks!

Or, in the case of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, change your stocks!

The Dow replaced Verizon (VZ) with Alphabet Class A (GOOGL) shares on Monday and the stock added nearly five percent on the day. Conversely, Verizon shares slid by five percent. Dow Jones' sleight-of-hand propelled the Dow Industrials to a record close, while also helping the NASDAQ and S&P regain some of their losses, "some" being the operative word.

Since the start of June peaks, the S&P is down 2.10%, the NASDAQ off by 4.68% as questions concerning the profitability of the AI buildout among big providers like Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and others continue to keep tech stocks under wraps, for now.

With just three days left in the holiday-shortened week, the tech threat may give way to employment issues. According to the BLS, total non-farm payroll employment increased by 172,000 in May 2026, similar to the gain of 179,000 in April. While those numbers seem impressive, in the know investors understand that the BLS figures are little more than guesses, their monthly and annual revisions reveal a weaker foundation and an agency hell-bent on keeping up appearances. June non-farm payroll closes out the week prior to the market open on Thursday.

As the fragile truce between the U.S. and Iran continues to hold up, oil flows are beginning to improve, though they are a long way from the millions of barrels that flowed out of the Persian Gulf prior to the recent conflict. The MOU has kept the warring parties at bay despite protests from Israel and American neocons. One can never discount enough Israel's dedication to wiping out their neighbors, and that remains a real issue as America heads towards its 250th anniversary of independence.

As the opening ball approaches, stock futures are flat to slightly lower, gold and silver remain under pressure and WTI crude futures are hovering just above $70/barrel.

The "all's well" narrative espoused by the White House seems to have fewer true believers. Wile stocks are not likely to collapse any time soon, a slow bleed after the Fourth of July may be the path of least resistance, with a great deal of confidence riding on second quarter earnings due out in July and August.

Congress, which doesn't do much of anything for anybody but themselves, will be taking their usual month-long vacation in about five weeks, leaving markets to fend for themselves without input from the government. Deficit spending continues to provide capital everywhere its needed. Drifting about may be the ultimate story for the summer months. After this week, there won't be another short trading week until Labor Day.

Awaiting the jobs report and the beginning of earnings season, stocks may have a hard time justifying gains, though there still seems to be no shortage of fun money for speculative bets.

A mixed bag.

At the close, Monday, June 29, 2026: Dow: 52,182.74, +306.63 (+0.59%) NASDAQ: 25,820.14, +522.53 (+2.07%) S&P 500: 7,440.43, +86.41 (+1.18%) NYSE Composite: 23,802.71, +113.47 (+0.48%)

WEEKEND WRAP: NASDAQ, Gold, Silver, Oil Lower; Inflation Fears May Be Overblown; USA's 250th Birthday Approaches; June Jobs Report on Tap

By this time next week, many Americans will be worn out from a celebratory weekend filled with swimming pools, marching bands, hot dogs, hamburgers, and a host of adult beverages.

But first, there's four days of trading ahead.

Stocks

Heading into another four-day week with the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence celebrated on Friday, July 3, the NASDAQ suffered its worst week since "Liberation Day", back in April of 2025. The NASDAQ, led by stocks in the chip and AI tech sectors, were most affected. The index lost 4.6% over the week. The S&P dropped by nearly two percent and the selling seems not to be nearly over.

The Dow Industrials held up much better, actually showing a gain of 0.60% on the week. Investors of all stripes must begin asking tough questions concerning their holdings, not the least of which being at what point does one take profits and wait for better signals, either to the upside or even further down?

Plenty of people in passive holdings like 401k, IRAs, or portfolios with long-term horizons, aren't likely to make rash moves at this juncture, viewing the current pullback little more than an annoyance, after which stocks will return to their usual upward slope. History proves them often correct in that regard.

On the bearish side of the argument are value investors who see valuations on the entire range of AI and chip-related stocks to be at extremes, with a correction or worse to be expected. The kinds of watershed events they envision refer to crashes like 1929, 2000, and 2008, though few have the temerity to step up and play short. Most short-sellers in recent years have been crushed and carried out of their positions on stretchers. Overall, the current conditions remain fluid with an unequal share of potential disasters on the horizon, including resumption of war (Iran), continuance of war (Ukraine), rising unemployment due to deployment of AI in industries ranging from banking to publishing to retail. In the meantime, Wall Street has convinced itself that the Kevin Warsh Federal Reserve is going to raise rates to fend off inflation, though there is growing evidence the recent spate of higher prices at both the wholesale and retail levels was largely a cause of the Middle East disruptions, with energy costs leading the statistics.

Such trap doors and potholes are always around. Most often, markets tend to sidestep or ignore them in favor of stock profits.

With the second quarter coming to a close on Tuesday, June 30, first quarter earnings reports have been all but exhausted. Beginning after the Independence Day weekend, companies will start reporting second quarter results, led by banks and airlines, the week of July 6-12.

A fairly quiet week in terms of economic events is ahead. Tuesday's Case-Shiller housing report and JOLTS job openings report on Tuesday. Wednesday's data includes the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI, the latter being usually more accurate. Weekly energy data from the EIA is also released on Wednesday. The big event will be the BLS monthly employment report for June, though recently, these reports have been discounted with overall U.S. employment sluggish and static. Contrasting with the rumors of rate hikes at the Fed, another weak reading would offer the opposite projection and be cheered loudly by the usual horde of rate-lowering cheerleaders.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
05/22/2026	3.72	3.69	3.69	3.68	3.78	3.79	3.86
05/29/2026	3.72	3.71	3.71	3.69	3.78	3.78	3.79
06/05/2026	3.71	3.71	3.71	3.78	3.78	3.81	3.88
06/12/2026	3.69	3.70	3.70	3.78	3.79	3.82	3.86
06/18/2026	3.69	3.69	3.74	3.83	3.85	3.92	4.00
06/26/2026	3.70	3.70	3.75	3.83	3.89	3.94	3.94

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
05/22/2026	4.13	4.18	4.27	4.41	4.56	5.06	5.07
05/29/2026	3.98	4.06	4.13	4.27	4.45	4.98	4.99
06/05/2026	4.17	4.22	4.29	4.41	4.55	5.03	5.01
06/12/2026	4.09	4.12	4.21	4.34	4.48	4.98	4.97
06/18/2026	4.19	4.19	4.23	4.34	4.46	4.91	4.90
06/26/2026	4.07	4.09	4.12	4.23	4.38	4.87	4.87

Treasury yields continue to trend lower, thwarting the conviction of many analysts who insist the Fed will raise rates to fend off another round of inflation. What they should be more worried about is the continuing growth of the money supply, a condition that the now-less-transparent Fed might deal with without the usual fanfare, though any decisions at the Fed will be slow and careful and not telegraphed to market participants.

The treasury curve is orderly and upward sloping, the era of inversion put well in the past. Spreads - +31 basis points on 2s-10s, and +117 on full spectrum remain within recent ranges. If anything, the yield curve should begin to slope higher or remain roughly the same. There's no signs of panic either from de-dollarization or fear of rising rates and with Warsh committed to keeping his cards close to his chest, a more stable condition is likely to present itself over the coming months.

Truth be told, there's probably a better chance that the Fed lowers the federal funds target rate over the next four to six months rather than raise it. Such a move would steepen the curve and help out the federal government by reducing interest payments, which have ballooned into a major solvency problem.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117

Oil/Gas

August WTI crude futures closed out the week at $70.24on the NY Mercantile Exchange, continuing to price lower on the back of the deal struck between the United States and Iran, ending hostilities in the region. The price of WTI crude was $76.54 the prior week. The parties have been meeting in Geneva, Switzerland over the past week, trying to forge some kind of working framework for the Gulf region that precludes bombing each other.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $3.88 last week and $3.81 this week, the lowest prices since the war with Iran began more then three months ago.

Reserves have been substantially drained by major economies around the world to keep prices under control, a practice that will - or should - reverse once regular oil flows are reestablished, a process that most believe could take months. A somewhat elevated price for oil and gas at the pump may remain in place through the summer months, though certainly not at levels seen during the war/ceasefire period.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.39 (-0.33)
Washington: $5.16 (-0.22)
Indiana (lowest): $3.22
Oklahoma : $3.30 (-0.06)
Mississippi: $3.42 (-0.10)
Florida: $3.78 (+0.18)
Illinois: $4.11 (-0.04)
Pennsylvania: $4.01 (-0.08)
New York: $4.10 (-0.11)
Maryland: $3.74 (-0.06)
Michigan: $4.09 (+0.11)
Texas: $3.24 (-0.16)
Georgia: $3.54 (-0.06)

On Sunday, June 28th, there are eleven (11) states with average prices above $4.00, with 37 below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.45) and Alaska ($4.90), with just two above $5 (California, Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past five weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging well below $4.00 ($3.24-3.60) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region a close second, prices ranging from $3.50 to $3.64. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest.

Bitcoin

This week: $60,194.49
Last week: $64,068.87
2 weeks ago: $64,048.96
6 months ago: $87,687.36
One year ago: $107,342.20
Five years ago: $34,681.76

Bitcoin managed to slump once again over the past week, hitting fresh lows in the $58,187 range before rebounding back to current, weak-kneed, levels. The price of a bitcoin at $60,000 is nothing at all special about the mystical pseudo-money that was all the rage just a year ago.

It's lost most of its luster, plummeting by more than half from the early October 2025 peak, down 31% year-to-date and making a five-years-ago investment no longer a double. One might conclude, other than hiding money from authorities (which, incidentally, it isn't very good at), there's no good argument for holding bitcoin at all, especially since the U.S. government - and others around the world - require disclosure on tax forms of any crypto holdings.

Not withstanding bitcoiners penchant for breaking the law when ostensibly, even as Charles Dickens so eloquently phrased in Oliver Twist, "...the law is an ass," of which other assets does the IRS demand an accounting? Baseball cards? No. Cash? No. Gold? No. Silver? Come on, let's get real.

The government wants to know what you're doing out there in crypto-land because it competes with US dollars, and, unlike baseball cards, gold, or silver, it can be tracked, traced, and easily confiscated.

If anybody discovers a good rationale for playing in the crypto markets other than mere speculation, please call 1-800-ImAnAss.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 69.12; last week: 64.13

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 5/29: $4,569.90
Gold price 6/5: $4,353.90
Gold price 6/12: $4,239.90
Gold price 6/18: $4,172.90
Gold price 6/26: $4,103.00

Silver price 5/29: $75.58
Silver price 6/5: $68.00
Silver price 6/12: $68.12
Silver price 6/18: $65.38
Silver price 6/26: $59.60

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 5/29: $4,538.94
Gold 6/5: $4,327.57
Gold 6/12: $4,218.23
Gold 6/18: $4,210.00
Gold 6/26: $4,089.00

Silver 5/29: $75.27
Silver 6/5: $67.83
Silver 6/12: $68.00
Silver 6/18: $65.65
Silver: 6/26: $59.16

Notably, amid the deconstruction of the gold/silver complex at the hands of the COMEX and LBMA, the gold:silver ratio has sprung higher, posting a figure of 69.12, quite a difference from the last week in January, at silver's peak when the ratio slumped below 50.

With the ratio once again elevated, there are three choices for silver buyers and they are the usual: Buy, Sell, or Hold.

Those with silver in hand have optionality working for them. Considering many have a cost basis somewhere in the range of $10 to $20, holding works well, though both buying and selling can be put into play depending on sentiment and time horizon. One might, for example, choose to sell some of one's holdings if they believe silver's price is to be further eroded, though the proper time for paring down the stack would have been a better prospect four to six months ago.

Buying makes sense should one adheres to the school of thought that the price of silver has over-corrected and is indeed poised for a move higher. Indications from the GSR (gold:silver ratio) are supportive of that line of thinking. Adding, say, 100 ounces to a stack of 1000 with a basis of $17, would move the basis higher, to 20.91 for all 1100 ounces, still highly profitable and even moreso should the price actually rise and hold at higher levels. Similar directional bets can be made with gold, which seems to have bottomed, though one can never be too sure of what the criminal counterfeiters have in mind.

No doubt, precious metals remain overall in a buyer's market, with spot prices the lowest in close to eight months.

It needs to be understood that 2024 and 2025 were banner years for both metals and a pullback was a natural occurrence. How much further precious metals will be pressured is a function of the willingness of the LBMA and COMEX to continue their outrageous price suppression tactics, seemingly never to end until the dollar is dust, fiat currencies are extinguished and physical demand flourishes. That may be a long time coming. In the meantime, stocking up at low levels at a regular tempo using dollar cost averaging or other quiet accumulation practices cannot be criticized even if prices continue to trend lower. After all, gold and silver are money, and money in one's own hand is an unbeatable strategy for wealth accumulation.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	59.60	89.48	74.86	72.35
1 oz silver bar:	67.00	79.00	72.76	72.18
1 oz gold coin:	4228.42	4367.70	4276.97	4266.18
1 oz gold bar:	4246.86	4360.22	4296.73	4283.60

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) continued to decline, dropping to $73.04 on June 28, a loss of $5.94 per troy ounce, from the June 21 price of $78.98, one of the most severe one-week losses in recent months.

WEEKEND WRAP

The United States has managed to remain an international entity for 250 years, which, to most established nations, would be considered a good start. Despite being somewhat of an adolescent on the global stage, the 250-year anniversary is worth celebrating.

At the Close, Friday, June 26, 2026:
Dow: 51,876.11, -44.51 (-0.09%)
NASDAQ: 25,297.62, -60.99 (-0.24%)
S&P 500: 7,354.02, -3.47 (-0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 23,689.23, +78.51 (+0.33%)

For the Week:
Dow: +311.41 (+0.60%)
NASDAQ: -1220.31 (-4.60%)
S&P 500: -146.56 (-1.95%)
NYSE Composite: +189.49 (+0.81%)
Dow Transports: +187.94 (+0.87%)

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