AI is Not About to End the Human Race; Oil Remains Pricey; Senate Hopes to Move Forward on CLARITY Act; Pause or Hike for the FOMC in Focus

With a FOMC rate policy decision due on Wednesday, investors traded with a timid mindset to open the week. Each of the major indices took losses for the day, though the declines were not very deep. AI-related stocks led the declines, after Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei suggested slowing the pace of innovation in the technology in a wordy warning posted on the internet.

Amodie was joined in the cuationary note by OpenAI's Sam Altman, who chimed in about AI's abilities to exceed human control. The market took the warnings in stride, without panic. President Trump chimed in on his Truth Social platform, vhiding the tech executives for being alarmist while reiterating the need for the United States to remain number one in the AI race, outpacing China.

The entire back-and-forth was little more than empty rhetoric on both sides of the argument. AI is certainly a great technological innovation, but fears of it destroying the human race seem to be mostly overblown science fiction. The models are getting smarter, and faster, but Amodei's and Altman's pleas for pacing the advancements are illogical and unworkable in the larger scheme of things. Individual companies aren't going to slow development over safety issues and China is certainly not going to pace themselves in development of their LLMs.

The markets have more to chew on these days than fears of AI becoming sentient and wiping out the human race. Policitians and generals are doing a bang-up job in that regard, with wars raging in the Middle East and Ukraine, with no end in sight for either conflict.

On the finance side, treasury yields popped higher Monday, with the peaks just before 9:30 am ET when the yield on the 10-year note briefly surpassed 5.01% and the 30-year bond yield rose other than 5.38%.

With the opening bell just minutes ahead, the 10-year yield is holding right around 4.99%, with the 30-year yielding 5.36%. These are levels that most traders owuld have considered panic points just months ago, though today's reality (and probably tomorrow's rate hike) has put a different spin into play. The riased interest rates are only going to cost the U.S. government about $60 billion a year in extra expense, and, of course, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has deep inner knowledge that will keep America from defauting on its $40 trillion debt load. He's an economic shaman, after all.

Oil prices reamin over $100/barrel for both Brent and WTI crude.

Stock futures are drfting higher heading toward what looks to be a flat open. Gold and silver continue to be beaten down, creating a buying opportunity for individuals and central banks alike.

Bitcoin got a boost on Monday in hopes that the Senate would pass a procedural vote on the CLARITY act, though Monday's gains have already been taken back. The measure requires 60 yes votes and there doesn't appear to be adequate Democrat support to move it forward. The vote is scheduled for later today.

Meanwhile, your AI assistant is eating your lunch...

At the Close, Monday, September 14, 2026:
Dow: 52,421.20, -152.09 (-0.29%)
NASDAQ: 26,186.41, -146.62 (-0.56%)
S&P 500: 7,619.98, -37.00 (-0.48%)
NYSE Composite: 24,205.39, -126.18 (-0.52%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Silver Shadowing Shanghai Pricing; Stocks Lose In Advance of Expected Rate Hike; Fight Stupid Wars, Win Stupid Prizes, Like Gas at $4.29

According to the Monthly Statement from the U.S. Treasury Department [PDF]:

Year-to-Date, through August 31, the federal government has taken in (in millions) $4,845,452, and spent $6,811,043, for a deficit of $1,965,591. That means the budget deficit for fiscal 2026, which ends September 30, will be well over $2 trillion.

In August the US spent $98 billion on gross interest expense. With one month remaining in fiscal 2026, total US interest spending is now $1.267 trillion, up 12% from a year ago. Most of the deficit is now spent on paying interest on the debt. It has reached an unsustainable level that, if not corrected soon, will bankrupt the nation. Imagine a family taking in $50,000 a year, but spending close to $70,000 a year, paying roughly $15,000 just in interest on their mortgage, credit cards, car loans, etc., never touching the principal.

That is textbook bankruptcy. The only solutions are to re-negotiate the debt or earn more money, or some combination of both. The federal government and elected officials at the White House and in congress don't seem to be in any hurry to address this urgent issue. One can only assume that they are either galactically stupid or simply don't care. The problem is that it's probably a combination of the two, and the American public is supposed to get excited about the upcoming midterm elections, to see which party has control, when the fact of the matter is that neither party exercises any control of the budget whatsoever.

Those who have been around a while remember the subprime crisis of 2008-09, when the entire financial system was close to collapse. Back then, some 17 years ago, the national debt was $9 trillion. It's over $40 trillion today. The U.S. treasury, congress, and the Federal Reserve have managed to add $30 trillion in debt in less than 20 years, and they are adding more at a record pace.

The United States has reached a point at which the debt outstanding may never be repaid. There is no reasonable way to grow its way out of it, to increase revenue to begin trimming the deficit and the debt. At some point in the near future - likely within five to ten years or less - the U.S. government will face the reality of defaulting on its debt. Maybe not all of it, but some of it to be sure. As the congress and every president for the past 40 years has shown no appetite for reducing spending, the only alternative has been to inflate the money supply and debase the dollar, known to most citizens as inflation. It's an unreasonable solution at best.

At some point - and the U.S. is getting ever closer to it - basic necessities like food, energy, and shelter will become unaffordable for millions. Millions of people are already close to the edge or over it, unable to afford basic nutrition, decent housing, or adequate health care. Government handouts in the form of food stamps, Medicare, Medicaid, disability benefits, and assorted other give-away programs contribute to worsen the overall debt and deficit problems. America is rushing headlong not only into a lost decade, but possibly a lost generation, with a depression that may last 20 years or longer.

Stocks

Each of the major indices were lower for the week, though not to any serious degree. The Dow took the worst of it, losing 1.57%, or 840 points. Stocks remain very close to all-time highs, despite a variety of worries.

Conditions in the Middle East have gone from bad to worse, with crude oil hitting price levels not seen since May. Brent futures wer as high as $110 during the week; WTI topped out at $104 and change. Soaring oil prices and gas at the pump have producers and consumers on edge.

The tripwire to a market meltdown will be met this week, when the FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a policy rate decision due out at 2:00 pm ET on Wednesday. The CME's Fed watch tool has the probability of a federal funds target rate hike to 3.75-4.00% at 87.3%. Fed watchers are usually fairly accurate, so it appears that a hike is already in the pipeline. Three board members voted for a rate hike at the last meeting in July, so a few more may have moved into that camp after PPI and CPI readings from Thursday and Friday, respectively, though mostly in line with expectations, remain elevated.

Outside the FOMC policy decision, the major economic releases this week will be the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index (Tuesday), Import-Export Prices (Wednesday), the Philly Fed, Pending Home Sales, and Housing Starts on Thursday, and Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production readings for August on Friday.

Should the FOMC decide to raise rates, the impact on markets may be significant, though there's also the possibility that the narrative will include the words, "already priced in." (see more below)

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
08/07/2026	3.79	3.79	3.83	3.87	3.89	3.96	4.01
08/14/2026	3.79	3.80	3.81	3.86	3.88	3.95	3.98
08/21/2026	3.80	3.77	3.80	3.88	3.90	3.95	4.03
08/28/2026	3.84	3.83	3.86	3.90	3.94	4.02	4.15
09/04/2026	3.79	3.83	3.90	3.91	4.00	3.98	4.13
09/11/2026	3.93	3.99	4.05	4.07	4.15	4.12	4.35

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
08/07/2026	4.19	4.25	4.35	4.49	4.65	5.20	5.19
08/14/2026	4.17	4.24	4.36	4.51	4.68	5.25	5.25
08/21/2026	4.24	4.31	4.43	4.57	4.74	5.25	5.27
08/28/2026	4.34	4.41	4.48	4.59	4.73	5.21	5.22
09/04/2026	4.37	4.45	4.54	4.65	4.78	5.25	5.24
09/11/2026	4.63	4.69	4.78	4.87	4.96	5.38	5.35

Interest rates across the Treasury complex moved dangerously higher this week with even the shortest-term bills spiking in anticipation of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming week. One-month bills closed out the week at 3.93%, well ahead of the anticipated 3.75-4.00% overnight rate the Fed is expected to impose when they announce their intentions on Wednesday, September 16.

The 10-year note rose 18 basis points, to 4.96% over the week, with the 30-year bond closing out at 5.35%, a gain of 11 basis points from the previous Friday. Particularly troubling was the 26 basis point advance on the two-year note, which rose to 4.63%.

Spreads remain elevated, though 2s-10s dropped to +33 (-8), but full spectrum kept the curve steep enough at +142 basis points. With short-term maturities already proactive to a rate hike, the concern is clearly at the long end. A ten-year yield above five percent is widely viewed as too extreme, though the word is that bond vigilantes, buyers who exert pressure on the market, are pushing for yields that match the general risk, which has turned from concern to panic.

Fed Chair Warsh has a difficult decision on Wednesday, but the market is telling him he has no choice but to raise rates now. Inflation is clearly not under control, with the CPI nowhere near the Fed's preferred two percent target. The Fed must act or risk even higher prices for everything from food and gas to boots, belts and bearings.

Producer prices appear to be the more concerning to markets. When companies cannot maintain prices at competitive levels due to higher input costs, the end result of higher overall prices is demand destruction, as manufacturers and service providers are forced to either raise prices or cut margins, which is a huge negative for bottom line profitability. The outlier risk is widespread demand destruction, wherein consumers simply stop buying until prices are eased back to more reasonable levels. All of this points to a slowdown in GDP, general disinflation and a stock market that would be vulnerable to a mass exodus, especially considering the extreme valuations on stocks at present.

There's even more concern at the funding level, given the high interest costs already in place on government borrowing. Rolling over bills and notes at interest rate levels higher than those being retired only exacerbates the critical condition of the federal balance sheet. While Warsh's rate hike will surely arrive with a menacing aftermath, he appears to have no choice but to do so. The federal government's spendthrift ways have outlasted the Fed's ability to keep order in credit markets. The blame will be directed at the Fed for obvious reasons when the real bad actors are all gainfully employed inside the Washington D.C. beltway.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37
7/24: +36
7/31: +47
8/7: +46
8/14: +51
8/21: +50
8/28: +39
9/4: +41
9/11: +33

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133
7/24: +136
7/31: +149
8/7: +140
8/14: +146
8/21: +147
8/28: +138
9/4: +145
9/11: +142

Oil/Gas

With the situation in the Middle East reaching even more extreme levels of conflict and the war - which is not a war, has already been won but still continues - has spread to include Saudi Arabia, as Yemeni rebels have escalated their attacks on the kingdom and blown up the lifeline pipeline by which the Saudis hoped to salvage their crippled oil business. Brent ($104.42)and WTI ($99.99) each closed the week at nearly four-month highs, the difference being that back in late May, prices were falling, whereas currently, they are rising.

Any continuation of U.S. war stupidity will be - and has been - met with serious resistance and counterstrikes by Iran and their proxies, particularly the Houthis in Yemen. The longer the U.S. prosecutes this now six-month escapade the worse conditions will become for Western economies and their populations. Inflation being the most insidious tax, energy inflation has a way of propagating throughout the consumer landscape.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.11 last week and $4.29 this week, rising to the highest Sunday price in nearly four months. Peace prospects in the Middle East have terminated, oil flows remain disrupted, and the president is getting serious heat from party members concerning the upcoming midterms, which Republicans are now more likely than ever to lose.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.97 (+0.13)
Washington: $5.55 (+0.31)
Indiana: $3.59 (lowest) (+0.16)
Oklahoma: $3.82 (+0.18)
Louisiana: $3.87 (+0.13)
Mississippi: $3.83 (+0.13)
Florida: $4.12 (+0.23)
Illinois: $4.48 (+0.24)
Pennsylvania: $4.50 (+0.23)
New York: $4.36 (+0.06)
Maryland: $4.19 (+0.19)
Michigan: $4.31 (+0.31)
Texas: $3.84 (+0.19)
Georgia: $3.99 (+0.13)

On Sunday, September 13, there are thrity-four (34) states with average prices at or above $4.00, with fourteen (14) below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.35) and Alaska ($5.06), with four above $5 (California, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past 12 weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging below $4.00 ($3.82-3.99) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region second, prices ranging now much higher, from $3.99 to $4.31. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois in the Midwest. Prices in the Northeast rose steadily this week, with all states, from Delaware and Maryland all the way to Maine, averaging well above $4.00. Gas prices overall were higher in every state on the mainland, bar none.

Bitcoin

This week: $77,245.85
Last week: $79,607.76
2 weeks ago: $78,862.44
6 months ago: $71,115.02
One year ago: $115,717.90
Five years ago: $48,306.64

Still crap. Now even crappier (cheaper).

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 67.43; last week: 66.91

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 8/14: $4,432.00
Gold price 8/21: $4,661.60
Gold price 8/28: $4,504.10
Gold price 9/4: $4,477.20
Gold price 9/11: $4,390.00

Silver price 8/14: $64.82
Silver price 8/21: $69.01
Silver price 8/28: $67.09
Silver price 9/4: $66.82
Silver price 9/11: $65.02

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 8/14: $4,375.15
Gold 8/21: $4,609.49
Gold 8/28: $4,454.08
Gold 9/4: $4,429.45
Gold 9/11: $4,348.10

Silver 8/14: $64.68
Silver 8/21: $68.96
Silver 8/28: $66.34
Silver 9/4: $66.20
Silver 9/11: $64.48

Gold and silver prices declined for a third straight week on the spot market,

As of Friday, September 11, the Shanghai silver price was $72.74/oz versus a U.S. spot of $64.48/oz, a +12.81% China premium. This implies that shipping 1,000 ounces of silver bought in the United States across the Pacific Ocean and sold in China, would result in a gross profit $8,260. Netting out transportation, insurance, and other related costs (for argument, let's say $1000), one would still be more than $7,000 ahead in such a transaction. It's not outside the realm of possibility that this kind of activity is already taking place and very likely at a much larger scale.

The difference in price between China and the U.S. might be a factor in the prices for one-ounce finished silver tracked in the Money Daily weekly eBay survey. For the past three weeks, even as silver lost ground on the COMEX and spot markets, prices paid on eBay remained stubbornly high, according to the SOSMPB. This week, even as silver hit a five-week low, eBay buyers were more than ready to shell out at premium levels above even the Shanghai price.

While this evidence is merely anecdotal, it does suggest that at least some silver buyers are not paying heed to U.S. price rigging on the COMEX and LBMA. Many of the dealers on eBay such as APMEX, Scottsdale, Pinehurst, Aydin, JM Bullion, and others are successfully pricing and selling their one-ounce silver offerings (coins and/or bars) at levels upwards of $70 and higher. Understandably, eBay's fee structure adds anywhere from 10-15% to a seller's cost, but the large dealers don't seem to mind so long as they're getting premium prices.

Because of the fees doled out by eBay, dealers have to price their items at higher levels. A 10% fee on a $70 silver coin knocks the net proceeds down to $63, below U.S. spot, which helps explain why the SOSMPB has been bouncing between $76 and $78 the past few weeks. Dealers have to make a profit and buyers don't seem to mind. Anybody who has ever sold PMs on ebay would assume that the premium paid on the purchase would be at least partially recouped upon a successful sale of the same or similar items.

The same cannot be said for gold, The Shanghai premium on gold is much lower on a percentage basis, roughly $30 higher than the U.S. spot price, so prices on eBay are much less affected, though prices paid for gold have always been at a significant premium to spot and remain tat way. The difference is just not as pronounced as it is with silver.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	71.00	89.70	77.95	77.00
1 oz silver bar:	73.87	82.54	78.13	77.64
1 oz gold coin:	4484.97	4745.71	4606.75	4593.84
1 oz gold bar:	4537.97	4637.03	4579.82	4566.97

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) gained over the course of the week, finishing at $77.68, a gain of 94 cents per troy ounce from the September 6 price of $76.72.

WEEKEND WRAP

We're all out of words for the week.

At the Close, Friday, September 11, 2026:
Dow: 52,573.29, +509.19 (+0.98%)
NASDAQ: 26,333.04, +251.31 (+0.96%)
S&P 500: 7,656.98, +65.28 (+0.86%)
NYSE Composite: 24,331.56, +190.92 (+0.79%)

For the Week:
Dow: -840.96 (-1.57%)
NASDAQ: -173.96 (-0.66%)
S&P 500: -61.62 (-0.80%)
NYSE Composite: -307.69 (-1.25%)
Dow Transports: -343.46 (-1.82%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Escalation in Middle East by U.S., Iran and Houthis Sends WTI Futures over $104; August CPI Reported as +0.4%, 3.4% Annual, Core at 2.4%

Stocks spilled lower for a fourth consecutive day on Thursday as the BLS released August PPI with a reading of +0.4% month-over-month and an annualized figure of 5.4% and military activity escalated in the Middle East.

While the headline and core numbers were in line with Wall Street expectations, there was no doubt about the discretion of traders, who continued the selling of equities. Also contributing to the general unease were long-dated treasury issues reaching multi-year high yields.

Yield on the 10-year note soared to 4.94% while the 30-year bond checked in at 5.36%, the gains related to a general consensus that Friday's CPI numbers would be high enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds rate by at least 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting next week (Sept. 15-16).

Crude oil futures were at the highest levels since May, with Brent approaching $110/barrel and WTI crude topping $104 overnight. As morning approached in Europe, prices eased slightly as demand destruction and a driving slowdown in the U.S. became the dominant meme.

For the week, stocks have not fared well. Through the three days closing on Thursday, the Dow had shed some 1350 points, the NASDAQ was down 425, and the S&P 500 was off 126 points.

Stock futures pointed to a higher open as all eyes turned to the BLS release of August CPI at 8:30 am ET.

The hope was that CPI would come in at a somewhat tame 0.2% for the month, which might influence the FOMC to continue their pause on interest rates, keeping the federal funds target rate at 3.50-3.75%.

Wall Street's fears were realized when the BLS announced August CPI at a staggering +0.4%.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August after rising 0.1 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for gasoline rose 3.9 percent in August, accounting for over one third of the monthly all items increase. The index for energy increased 2.1 percent over the month. The shelter index rose 0.3 percent in August after rising 0.1 percent in July. The index for food increased 0.1 percent over the month, as the index for food away from home increased 0.3 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent after increasing 0.2 percent in July. Indexes that increased over the month include communication, lodging away from home, airline fares, education, and used cars and trucks. Conversely, the index for medical care and the index for motor vehicle insurance were among the major indexes that decreased in August.

The all items index rose 3.4 percent for the 12 months ending August as it did for the 12 months ending July. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.4 percent over the year, following a 2.5-percent increase over the 12 months ending July. The energy index increased 16.3 percent for the 12 months ending August. The food index increased 2.7 percent over the last year.

The announcement sent stock futures sharply lower, but then rebounded as core CPI fell from 2.5 to 2.4%, the lowest in more than five years.

With the general perception that the CPI figure would surely cause the FOMC to raise rates, it remains to be seen how the cash market will respond to close out what has been a troubling week.

At the Close, Thursday, September 10, 2026:
Dow: 52,064.10, -316.56 (-0.60%)
NASDAQ: 26,081.73, -171.62 (-0.65%)
S&P 500: 7,591.70, -44.66 (-0.58%)
NYSE Composite: 24,140.65, -170.50 (-0.70%)

August PPI up 0.4%, 5.4% Annualized; Dow Closes Below 50-Day Moving Average Over Interest Rate, Oil Price Tops $100; Panic in the Air

Well, there it is.

The Dow Jones industrial Average closed decisively below its 50-day moving average for the first time since early April, when the U.S.-Iran war was just beginning to cool down. Now that military conditions appear to be getting heated once more, will this spawn a selloff in stocks as was the case in early March when kinetic acton was at its height?

Maybe. It's clearly too early to tell from a chartist perspective, but, then again, could the Iranians (and Houthis) be playing a little politics? Would they like to see President Trump lose power in the midterms and possibly face impeachment proceedings in the House? There's little doubt that Iran's leaders would relish that possibility. Then again, it could be merely coincidence, though those with suspicious minds may be thinking deeper than merely the midterms. A master plan may be at work for those with their tin foil hats firmly secured.

Fail in the midterms. Let the economy - and the dollar - crash, send treasury yields on long-dated maturities higher, blame the Democrats, usher in emergency rate cuts in Q2 2027, inflate, inflate, inflate. Simple. Done deal. Actually doesn't sound so far-fetched.

Whether the Iran situation or the midterms or the interest rate cycle plays out in exactly this manner may not actually have to happen for a crisis to develop. There may already exist a financial crisis that the elitist government isn't keen on revealing to the unwashed masses. Treasury Secretary Bessent has already intervened in the Japan carry trade. Oil is at three-month highs. Gas prices are killing everybody. High diesel prices are the hidden inflation driver that will eventually trigger another round of price inflation. Meanwhile, the Fed has been quietly humping the money supply higher.

See the chart? That move from July, 2025 to July, 2026 is a 5.14% move. That's higher than inflation, whatever CPI number is released on Friday. The Federal Reserve is doing more to debase the dollar and erode purchasing power than all the IIRC generals in Iran combined. Keep pumping the money supply, inflation will follow like night follows day.

"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." -- Milton Freidman

Approaching the opening bell, everybody got a little taste of what the CPI is likely to show tomorrow as the BLS calculated August PPI at 5.4% on an annualized basis.

The Producer Price Index for final demand moved up 0.4 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.1 percent in July and decreased 0.1 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 5.4 percent for the 12 months ended in August.

In August, the index for final demand goods advanced 1.1 percent, and prices for final demand services increased 0.1 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3 percent in August after moving up 0.4 percent in July. For the 12 months ended in August, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 4.7 percent.

That announcement sent shockwaves through the futures complex. Dow futures fell to -156, NASDAQ futures dove more than 350 points and S&P futures were rocked 35 points lower. As usual, gold and silver were punished as well. The lone standout amid the fraying in the markets was crude oil. WTI crude futures for October shot over $100/barrel as hostilities in the Middle East continued to escalate.

The major indices have spent the past three sessions in the red, starting with the August Non-farm Payroll report on Friday that sent rate hike expectations through the roof. With the PPI figure released today suggesting that price inflation isn't about to roll over and die, what will CPI look like tomorrow, and what will investors do?

Three straight down days on the majors doesn’t make a trend. That happens all the time. However, all three majors dropping between two and three percent over the last month might be considered trend-worthy. It's at least something to consider. For now, it's a minor pullback from arguably overvalued levels. Should Friday's CPI figure be worse than expected (headline upwards of 3.4%; core, 2.4%), market response is likely to be largely negative.

If stocks are entering a downtrend phase, there isn't much in the way of catalysts to stem the tide. There's the FOMC meeting next week. If the Fed decides they've had enough of inflation and raises the federal funds rate, it's doomsday. After that, the 2026 fiscal year closes for the federal government on September 30 and roughly two weeks after that third quarter earnings begin to roll. That's a month full of possible pitfalls, suggesting cautious market movement.

Friday is also the 25th anniversary of 9-11, the Twin Towers disaster. It is one of the nation's most terrifying and revered dates and one Wall Street veterans will never forget. Sentiment over the event is not likely to play a part in whatever happens in markets on the last trading session of the week.

For now, it appears that te Dow's breakdown below the 50-day moving average was indeed a strong signal. Fears of a rate hike by the Fed last week have accelerated and panic is in the air.

At the Close, Wednesday, September 9, 2026:
Dow: 52,380.66, -405.41 (-0.77%)
NASDAQ: 26,253.34, -168.07 (-0.64%)
S&P 500: 7,636.36, -37.16 (-0.48%)
NYSE Composite: 24,311.15, -161.91 (-0.66%)

Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin All Slide After Labor Day Holiday; Crude Oil Higher; Dow At Pivot Point; Why You Should Not Own Crypto

U.S. stocks spent the entire session Tuesday in the red, but really caved late in the day as tensions mounted in the Middle East and the price of crude oil continued to ramp higher on global markets. The October WTI futures contract closed out the day at $94.23, a three percent jump and the highest price in three months. November Brent Crude futures closed out at $99.36 on the NYMEX.

The Dow took the worst of it on U.S. indices, losing just over 600 points and closing right at the 50-day moving average, which is no coincidence. On August 20, the Dow 30 lost just more than 700 points, and on September 1, the Dow dropped about 420 points, both times landing right on the 50-day. Each time, the 30 industrials rallied the following day, so hitting the target is some kind of dog whistle to the assembled Wall Street sharpies. Wednesday will see whether the pattern holds or not.

A drop below the 50-day MA would send a strong signal that all is not well and further downside would be anticipated. Given current conditions, it would be probable that investors might be seeking safe shelter, but where? On Tuesday, everything was down, including gold, silver, bitcoin and long-dated treasuries, with yields on the 10-year note and 30-year bond hitting 4.81% and 5.27%, respectively. So, where to hide? Oil futures? Copper? Zinc? Cash would be the more obvious choice for most, as protecting assets becomes more important than booking profits. Making four percent in a money market, even in an inflationary environment, makes just enough sense.

Still, the degree to which Wall Street and the Trump blow hards fix the narrative cannot be understated. There's just as good a chance that markets will rally on Wednesday. After all, August PPI and CPI won't be released until Thursday and Friday, so there's still a chance to make some money before the next big data drops. All it would take is one Trump "truth" posting to move the needle.

With the opening bell dead ahead, stock futures are near the lows of the morning, gold and silver are rallying, and Brent crude topped $100 overnight. WTI crude futures are sitting at $95.70.

By all appearances, the Dow is set to break below its 50-day moving average, which would be a strong sell signal.

*****

Why you shouldn't own bitcoin or any other crypto "assets."

Today's lesson is an excerpt from BitcoinMagazine.com:

The Liquid Network said Sunday that purported white-hat hackers withdrew about 4,000 bitcoin, worth about $320 million, from the federation wallet that backs L-BTC.

Bridge nodes were disabled, and the sidechain was paused. Other issued assets, including USDT, DePix and RWAs, were unaffected, the official account said on X.

The Liquid Network is a federated sidechain of Bitcoin, founded by Adam Back’s Blockstream. The Liquid chain issues a variety of assets such as LBTC, which it backs with BTC on the Bitcoin main chain, held in a large multisig of 15 corporate and known members. 11 of the 15 members need to sign a valid multi-signature transaction to move coins from the treasury. Before the hack, the treasury held over 4200 BTC; after the hack, Blockstream’s proof of reserves page reports a little over 207 BTC left.

The hackers withdrew 4,019.4 BTC from the reserve address in a peg-out transaction using the SideSwap Peg-out Authorization Key. SideWap is a bridge exchange and a member of the Liquid Federation. While details on the mechanism of the hack are not confirmed yet, it appears an inflation bug on the LBTC side chain was exploited by the hackers to create over 4,000 LBTC that did not exist before, and cash them out for on-chain bitcoin from the federation. Because the transaction appeared as valid, given the consensus bug, the federation members’ HSM security servers signed the BTC withdrawal transaction, worth roughly 320 million at the time.

Seriously, how much of that did you understand?

The point is that crypto assets can be created, diverted, rehypothecated, counterfeited, and/or stolen in a variety of manners, none of which are well understood by the average, or even above-average, investor.

At the Close, Tuesday, September 8, 2026:
Dow: 52,786.07, -628.18 (-1.18%)
NASDAQ: 26,421.41, -85.58 (-0.32%)
S&P 500: 7,673.52, -45.08 (-0.58%)
NYSE Composite: 24,473.06, -166.19 (-0.67%)