Stocks Seek Comeback Following Tech Rout Thursday; Oil Drops, but Remains High; AI Narrative May Have Blown Up

The week thus far has not been a pleasant one for those in the bull camp.

For the NASDAQ, Tuesday was the only session returned to the upside. Those gains were gradually eroded on Wednesday and completely eviscerated by the fallout Thursday, as market fears of excessive AI capex spending, shaky private credit markets, escalation in the Middle East, and rising bond yields shook investors to their cores.

Hardest hit were the hyperscalers, with Alphabet (GOOGL) leading the slide, dropping 7.13%. Alphabet was added to the Dow Industrials just a week ago. Thursday's results dragged down the 30-stock blue chip index.

Amazon, which announced nothing, but is among the tech companies with the heaviest investment in AI capex, lost 4.57% on the day. Meta Platforms (META) lost 3.36%. Microsoft (MSFT) dropped two percent. Apple (AAPL) shed one percent.

Tesla (TSLA) lost 14% on the day, investors worried about the company's own spending plans on AI, self-driving taxis, and robotics. It surely didn't help matters when the company reported a profit of 31 cents in the second quarter when analysts were expecting 51 cents. Oops.

The NASDAQ broke through prior lows, ending the session at its lowest level since May 4. It is down more than seven percent from its June 2nd high (27,093.90). Trajectory indicates that the downdraft on the NASDAQ is far from over. The last time tihe index reported three straight winning sessions was June 15.

Early Friday morning, stock futures were sailing higher on the back of some sketchy earnings by Intel (INTC) which reported late Thursday. For the quarter, Intel blew away estimates, with earnings per share of $0.38 on revenue of $16.1 billion. Wall Street was anticipating EPS of $0.21 on revenue of $14.43 billion. The stock initially boomed more than 10% in after-hours trading.

With the cash open looming, those gains have been pared down to about three percent. After all, with the share price at its closing level of 100 on Thursday, the stock was already up more than 170% year-to-date and had recently topped out at 140 per share. Beating estimates that are low hurdles doesn't actually make the company a good investment. The wins this quarter don't even outweigh the losses from the first quarter ($3.7 billion). The chart, and the move from $41 in March to $140 in June looks to be mostly the work of insiders after the government took an equity position in the company.

Whatever the futures are forecasting for Friday probably are only going to provide a shot-term bounce that may not last the morning. The issues facing the market are not about to be resolved over the course of one session, one week, or even one month. This appears to be a long unwind that the elites wish to control by keeping reality at bay via the usual rosy narrative. It doesn't appear to be working very well.

As of Thursday's close, the Dow was down 434 points on the week. The NASDAQ was off 382, and the S&P was down 49 points. The week has been far short of an outright disaster. Friday's sentiment will complete the story. For now, it's not looking very positive. At 8:45 am ET, Dow futures are up 190, but are down from earlier highs. NASDAQ futures are up a very modest 12 points, and S&P futures are showing an 11-point gain, but all of them are beginning to slide toward the red.

Friday's trading may be more about testing positions, seeing whether the Mag7 stocks can regain some lost ground via dip-buyers, though even that would be pushing on a string. The AI narrative continues to break down; the War vs. Iran continues to devolve into what appears to be another forever war, the price of oil took a small dive overnight, but U.S. gas prices continue to rise, hitting a national average of $4.09 today, according to GasBuddy.com.

The June 2nd highs for the NASDAQ and S&P are beginning to look more and more like tops. The Dow, late to the party, peaked on July 6th (53,055.91) and is down a little more than two percent, but needs a catalyst to move forward and none appears to be in the works.

There's an FOMC meeting next week (July 28-29), but the Fed isn't likely to make any move, one way or the other. Tightening at this juncture would appear to be off the table. The latest rally - from the end of March to late June, early July, was built mostly on hope that the Mideast would be sorted out and oil would flow from the Gulf unimpeded. With that seemingly off the table, there's a world of worry setting the tone.

At the Close, Thursday, July 23, 2026:
Dow: 51,711.65, -506.93 (-0.97%)
NASDAQ: 25,137.69, -553.21 (-2.15%)
S&P 500: 7,408.30, -90.66 (-1.21%)
NYSE Composite: 23,874.27, -45.44 (-0.19%)

Alphabet, Tesla, Spiking Oil Prices Send Markets into Tailspin; Treasury Yields Rising; Stocks Under Severe Pressure

Heading into Thursday's cash market, conditions don't appear to favor stocks in general or tech favorites in particular. After the close Wednesday, a couple of heavyweights reported second quarter results that fell short of market expectations. Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are sending not-so-subtle notice that stocks may be - big surprise - a bit overvalued.

Chipping in to the downside thrust, Texas Instruments (TXN) reported better-than-expected results and raised guidance, but the market isn't buying it, sending shares lower by four percent in the pre-market.

IBM added injury to insult, having already warned about a decline in service revenue, posting second quarter revenue of $17.16 billion, up 1% from a year earlier. Adjusted earnings per share were $2.93. Analysts had expected revenue of $17.58 billion and adjusted earnings of $2.97 per share, according to CNBC. The stock is down two percent prior to Thursday's open.

Alphabet (GOOGL), recently added to the Dow, is the main focus this morning, with investors still skeptical about capex levels the company has committed to for the remainder of this year and into 2027 and 2028. Alphabet is the leading hyperscaler, the moniker given to companies that are spending heavily on data center buildout in order to manage the huge demands of AI in business and consumer markets. While most of these projects are moving forward, there's also a movement afoot locally and to a degree nationally, to ban or bar data center construction due to excessive demands on the electrical grid and local water supplies.

Google, Amazon, Microsoft and others plan on a massive expansion of computing capacity, while analysts fail to see profitability on the horizon, which remains the primary roadblock in terms of share prices. Alphabet, after posting what were generally positive results, is trading lower by about five percent in the pre-market.

Tesla (TSLA) is another company on the capex roller coaster, though to a much lesser extent than the hyperscalers. CEO Elon Musk is committing more than $25 billion to expansion this year, minuscule compared to the $200 billion exposure at Alphabet. Tesla plans continued investments into self-driving cars and robo-taxis and is committed to AI and robotics initiatives.

Thursday, before the open, American Airlines (AAL) reported a positive quarter with EPS at 15 cents per share against estimates of a mere three cents. The company lowered guidance, however, as high jet fuel prices continue to put pressure on margins and proit.

Defense contractor, Lockheed Martin (LMT), beat on EPS and issued better guidance, sending shares higher by about five to six percent. Another bright spot was farm and garden retailer, Tractor Supply (TSCO), which beat estimates and is trading two percent to the upside.

The overall market picture is clouded by tech, however. The current investing environment doesn't seem to need much of a story to commence selling, and the first miscues in the tech sector have set off enough alarm bells to send everything into what could become an equity maelstrom. Adding to the malaise is the continuation of hostilities in the Middle East as recent tit-for-tat assaults by Iran and the United States have send oil prices through the roof again. WTI crude oil has topped $90 a barrel this morning. With the Strait of Hormuz essentially closed to commercial traffic and the U.S. and Western allies having already drained the bulk of their strategic reserves, the outlook for oil prices is not good, with estimates ranging from $100 to $150 per barrel near term, depending on the length of the conflict and degree of destruction by the warring parties.

In general, Thursday is shaping up as a major selling event. Dow futures at 9:00 am ET are down 540 points. NASDAQ futures are down 408, with S&P futures off 75 points.

Gold and silver are being slapped lower, though that condition of not being a safe haven in times such as these, is largely the result of manipulation at the COMEX and LBMA. The fiat riggers can't stand to lose, but their days are numbered. When their control cartel is finally vanquished, prices for precious metals will become, well, "precious."

Piling onto the worry wall are treasury notes and bond yields. The 10-year spiked to 4.70%, with the 30-year bond at 5.15%.

The unpleasant reminders that prices, valuations, and being naughty or nice to your neighbors still matters is not about to be lost on this market.

At the Close, Wednesday, July 22, 2026:
Dow: 52,218.58, -6.06 (-0.01%)
NASDAQ: 25,690.90, -146.30 (-0.57%)
S&P 500: 7,498.96, -10.24 (-0.14%)
NYSE Composite: 23,919.71, +29.53 (+0.12%)

Churning Markets Appear Ready for a Change; Big Tech Names to Announce After the Close; War in Middle East Heats Up

There's little happening today in terms of change events other than the stocks that went up on Tuesday are scheduled to go down on Wednesday. That's just how it goes in a headline-dominated environment. One day, hyperscalers and semis are good, the next day, not so much.

While most of the market participants are waiting for a breakout, something that could move the whole market, a breakdown appears to be the most likely near-term outcome. Stocks rallied sharply right at the end of the first quarter, as the U.S. and Iran announced a temporary ceasefire. It almost seemed too convenient. End of quarter, end of hostilities, mark up the right names to show investors a solid second quarter and maybe Trump would have worked through his neocon escapade. Onward and upward, mission accomplished.

That's not exactly what happened. While Wall Street got its wish and a super second quarter, the wheels are falling off the narrative and the valuations, especially at the NASDAQ where most of the big tech names are parked and trading has become rather choppy. There haven't been more than two straight winning sessions since the middle of June.

With the S&P and NASDAQ topping out on June 2nd and the Dow coming to the party late, on July 6 (ostensively, part of the Presidential 250 narrative, "stocks are at all time highs"), it's been mostly a slippery slope since.

The Middle East is all aflame again, and, while Israel seems to have cooled its heels of late, the Houthis are back at it, threatening shipping on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula. It's getting messy again, and that's not good for the price of oil, which has hiked as high as $88.50 for WTI crude this morning. The politically-sensitive national average price of gas at the pump is back above $4.00, which serves to reinforce the attitude of a majority of Americans that the war with Iran is wasteful, stupid, unnecessary, and harmful to U.S. interests. The idea that they are probably right doesn’t really register in the reptilian minds of most neocons.

Lindsey Graham remains dead, the bright light of hope.

Approaching the open, stock futures have trimmed their losses. Dow futures are down 64 points; NASDAQ futures are off 250; S&P futures are down 23. The most interesting twist this morning is in precious metals, with both silver and gold sporting early gains. Nearing 9:00 am ET, gold is up around $40, to $4117, while silver got within earshot of $60 before falling back to $59.10 this morning.

After the close Wednesday, some of the more important tech and industrial names will be announcing second quarter results, including IBM (IBM), Tesla (TSLA), Alphabet (GOOGL), Texas Instruments (TXN), Crown Castle (CCI), CSX (CSX), and Kinder Morgan (KMI).

Setting up for some volatility today.

At the Close, Tuesday, July 21, 2026:
Dow: 52,224.64, +385.38 (+0.74%)
NASDAQ: 25,837.21, +329.13 (+1.29%)
S&P 500: 7,509.20, +65.92 (+0.89%)
NYSE Composite: 23,890.19, +220.54 (+0.93%)

Recipe for a Correction: Stocks Flat to Lower After Reporting Earnings; Yields Rising on Long-Dated Maturities in Treasury Market

It's been said that bond traders are ten times smarter than their stock hustling counterparts.

Whether or not there's any truth to the statement is hardly relevant. Let's just say bond traders are more diligent and discriminating than their counterparts dealing in equities. Be that as it may, something worth noticing has been unfurling in the flagging treasury market. Amid a stock market mini-meltdown, there's not been a rush to fixed income; the cagy old pros have been selling long-dated maturities, not buying, as would normally be the case in a "flight to quality."

Yield on the 10-year note hit 4.60% on Monday. The 30-year bond was throwing off an eye-catching 5.18%. Those are numbers beyond the psychological levels that have been repeatedly warned and worried over, 4.50% and 5.00%, and, if the smartest guys on Wall Street are selling already, what happens when stocks get really hot and bothered? More than likely, they'll be buying, at yields higher than current levels.

That may happen sooner, but probably later. There will be a run to the safety of finxed income and away from risky stocks, but it may prove to be short-lived. The scale of buying is likely to be at a measured pace. Bonds are much less volatile than stocks, and the managers tasked with trading debt instruments aren't about to go all in at 4.75% on the 10s or 5.25% on 30s. A nibble here, a nibble there. Before you now it, the 10-year, once considered dangerous at 4.50%, will look heavenly at 4.85% and the 30-year at 5.65%, both generous returns - much better than the average dividend yield on most stocks - with what will be perceived as minimal risk.

Rising bond yields are what naturally happens when money is too loose for too long. The American debt machine has rung up nearly $40 trillion in government debt, just at the federal level. States and municipalities, counties, and villages have dug their own debt graves and will continue digging. Individual and corporate debt are at extremes, with credit card debt at an all-time high (at an average of nearly 22%), mortgage failures and foreclosures rising rapidly and more than 40% of recent new car loans underwater, the debt binge is close to reaching its stupefying, cataclysmic climax. Nobody can just keep borrowing and borrowing more to pay off the interest - which is what the government has been doing for 40+ years - indefinitely. Eventually, the numbers just become too grotesque, too large to hide, and too onerous to handle.

U.S. government debt recently passed $39.5 trillion, just a hop, skip, and jump away from the $40 trillion mark. While there's nothing inherently magical about $40 trillion, or even $50 or $60 trillion, large, round numbers do give people reason to pause. The government will spend over $1.1 trillion in interest payments alone this fiscal year and that number is not expected to decline at all for the foreseeable future. At some point - and that point has already been reached by central banks of other major economies - there's reason to doubt the invincibility of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency. It's OK, if you like paying interest on debt incurred years or decades ago for your entire life, but it's not a plan anybody with a free conscious and open mind would choose to pursue. At this juncture, however, there's no plans to make any changes. The government will issue debt, the Fed will cover it, the purchasing power of the backing currency will decline. It's just straight up math, though it does play out rather slowly, as in decades and across generations.

Since the 1970s, the United States has managed to destroy its creditor nation position to become the world's largest debtor. The wealth of the U.S. is all created by debt, and, so far, it's working, though living standards overall have been in decline since the early 2000s and are, in many parts of the country that aren't discussed at fancy parties, getting even worse. Inner cities have become homeless tent centers. Appalachia, always an area of severe poverty, has been completely devastated by a lack of new jobs, drug addiction, and the ultimate ravages of long-term underemployment.

Most people won't look over there and see the depression and hopelessness that prevails, but they are looking at their grocery bills, mortgage or rent payments, insurance and health costs eating away at their weekly or bi-weekly paychecks, and it's not just a little scary, it's very scary. People in their 30s and 40s trying to raise families are scraping by on two salaries. A generation or two ago, they'd have been prosperous and happy. Today's working couples are concerned and cornered by debt and inflation. As soon as they manage to make some headway in their income/expense ratio, gas prices, or food prices, or school fees or property taxes take another bite.

Of course, none of this is of any concern to the stock pushers on Wall Street or the slippery fish floating around congress. They aren't in that "class" of people, after all, and they look out for themselves pretty well, which is one of the reasons why they always appear to be in control, touting the latest discoveries or advancements and pretending that the whole U.S. economy is just fine and dandy, thank you.

They'll never tell you the truth. Those bond guys may be onto something, however.

***

After the usual celebratory opening spike in stocks, the major indices took a nose dive the rest of the day. The Dow was the first to capitulate, dropping into the red before 10:00 am ET. The S&P and NASDAQ were more resistant, bouncing around most of the session in positive territory before closing out with minor losses.

This is exactly the kind of market that portfolio managers don’t want to see during what should be a robust earnings season.

Domino's Pizza (DPZ) reported solid results before he open and ended the day up just more than two percent, at 328.97. Too bad it opened at 350 and got portioned out and devoured throughout the stuffed-crust session.

Irish ultra-low-cost airline carrier, Ryanair (RYAAY), reported a 34% Y/Y drop in its first-quarter profit because of higher jet fuel prices and lower fares, helping explain why investors took profits and ran, sending the stock down 5.85% on Monday.

After the close Monday, reporting were:
Zions Bancorporation (ZION) - down 5% ater reporting solid quarterly results
Crown Holdings (CCK) - beat, raised expectations, stock is flat in pre-market
Steel Dynamics (STLD) - second-quarter profit, revenue rise on improved steel pricing, shares down one percent

Tuesday, before the opening bell, these companies reported Q2 results:
Ally (ALLY) - in-line to beat on bottom line, shares flat
DR Horton (DHI) - earnings beat, but profits down 12%, shares down one percent
Charles Schwab (SCHW) - eps beat, record revenue, shares down 1-2%
General Motors (GM) - earnings beat, boosts guidance, shares down one percent
3M (MMM) - shares rally 7 % after second-quarter earnings beat and higher full-year outlook
Halliburton (HAL) - higher revenue, earnings beat, shares down 4%

Outside of 3M, a pattern, which has already emerged from last week, continues to haunt dealers with intentions for profit-making trades. Earnings reports, good, bad, or otherwise, are being used as a rationale to sell. This implies an immediacy to raising cash or to escape from positions that appear to be facing institutional liquidation. There's three months before the next report, so why not cash out now and buy back in before the next glowing quarterly report, or, move money elsewhere?

It makes plenty of sense considering the mostly outrageous price:value ratio. On that basis, General Motors, the makers of mostly sub-standard, over-priced motor vehicles, appears to be the ripest short of the bunch, sporting a PE above 30 (no, it's not a growth company) and a dividend yield of 0.95% (Yes, grandma, I can turn your $10,000 into $10,095 in a year. "You go run along and play in traffic, sonny.").

There is ample reason to believe that the stock market has already made the trun from bullish to bearish.

The NASDAQ is down 5.85% since June 2nd's all-time high (27,093.90). The S&P is down just over two percent over the same span, but it is the NASDAQ that represents the heart of trading in semis, tech, hyperscalers, Mag7, etc., and that is also the opening narrative for stocks heading into Tuesday's session: Tech rebound. With the NAZ already down nearly six percent, who exactly is buying into that particualr fable?

Institutions want out, but not before they lure retail into the trap. Any gains today will e gone tomorrow. That appears to be the current zeitgeist or corporate strategy. It's not working. People have less and less faith in institutional passive investing every day. Additionally, baby boomers are dying and passing along assets in 401k and other plans to their heirs, who are quickly liquidating them to pay themselves for years of diligent elderly care and a better life.

The longer the lies of the elites continue, the further the actuarial tables tell the real story.

Futures are putting lipstick and mascara on this pig of a market with NASDAQ futures up 400 points prior to the open. Dow futures are up 135; S&P futures are up 33. Bear in mind the NASDAQ can rise 400 or 500 points and still be down 3-4%. It’s nothing more than churning a dead cat that refuses to bounce very much.

Fewer and fewer suckers are being fooled only because there are fewer of them still breathing. There are more sellers than buyers. Recipe for a correction.

At the Close, Monday, July 20, 2026:
Dow: 51,839.26, -307.16 (-0.59%)
NASDAQ: 25,508.07, -12.17 (-0.05%)
S&P 500: 7,443.28, -14.41 (-0.19%)
NYSE Composite: 23,669.65, -147.32 (-0.62%)

WEEKEND WRAP: War Ramps Up Again in Middle East; Oil Prices Explode Higher; Stocks Take on Water, even as Earnings Emerge; Silver Shattered

Anybody with functioning brain cells should be able to grasp the current condition, wherein the only things that cost less this week than last were some stocks, gold, and silver.

Face it, citizens of the world, you're being reamed!

Nobody is safe from the ravages of American exceptionalism gone wild. Especially hard hit are the people living in the Middle East, from Iran to Israel and all points adjacent and in between. Under President Trump and the useless congress that is supposed to be a check and balance on the power of the executive branch, the U.S. government is a runaway freight train to a disastrous future, to say nothing of the psychotic present.

Call it whatever one likes, the war in the Middle East, with Iran as the direct target, is back on with a vengeance. It's only a matter of time before the Iranians commence bombing Israel with increasing devastation. It will come as a response to the U.S. blatantly attacking civilian infrastructure in Iran, hoping to cripple its ability to defend itself and communicate with the citizenry.

The United States continues to act with impunity, against dictates of the Geneva Convention and other treaties concerning the conduct of war. It's obvious that President Trump and his closest advisors couldn’t care less about treaties and any kind of peacekeeping or humanitarian effort.

For what it's worth, most Americans are opposed to what the U.S. is doing militarily in the Middle East and Ukraine. Upwards of 60% of people polled recently think continued strikes against Iran are a bad idea and that percentage also applies toward Ukraine. People generally regard war as abhorrent and unwise. In a nutshell, anybody who cheers on continued bombing and military conflict for political purposes is an ass-hole, a group that includes not only the president himself and his advisors, but nearly everybody in the Pentagon and on Capitol Hill.

The United States is being run into the ground by war-mongering neocons whose only goals are money and power. Americans, and, indeed, the rest of the world deserves better.

Stocks

Overall, it was a bummer of a week for stockholders, especially in the tech sector, which continues to be ravaged by fears of capex exceeding reasonable returns and some well-timed profit-taking. The week was largely a spectacle of companies declaring better-than-expected earnings for the second quarter, only to see share prices tank on the news. That kind of "sell the news" mentality bodes ill for the weeks and months ahead. Not only have many Americans lost trust in institutions, they are growingly losing faith in the stock market and the economy, which seems to be running on past glory rather than hopes for increased productivity and growth.

The U.S. infrastructure continues to crumble even as plans are being made for more stress on the grid via data centers around the nation. The fight in local communities regarding data centers has grown into a fierce battle. This week New York Governor Kathy Hochul became the first to declare a state-wide ban on building new data centers. Other local counties across the country have proposed and passed similar bans, citing rising electrical bills for consumers and extensive draining of local water supplies.

Second quarter earnings will be front and center again this week, with tech names scattered throughout the landscape of companies reporting. It's a real smorgasbord of reporting, covering everything from retail, to airlines, banking, to mining.

Monday: (before open) Domino's Pizza (DPZ), AMC (AMC), Ryanair (RYAAY); (after close) Zions Bancorporation (ZION), Crown Holdings (CCK), Steel Dynamics (STLD)

Tuesday: (before open) Ally (ALLY), DR Horton (DHI), Charles Schwab (SCHW), General Motors (GM), 3M (MMM), Halliburton (HAL); (after close) Alaska Airlines (ALK), EastWest Bank (EWBC)

Wednesday: (before open) Moody's (MCO), Philip Morris (PM), AT&T (T), Pulte Group (PHM); (after close) IBM (IBM), Tesla (TSLA), Alphabet (GOOGL), Texas Instruments (TXN), Crown Castle (CCI), CSX (CSX), Kinder Morgan (KMI)

Thursday: (before open) Cliffs (CLF), American Airlines (AAL), Blackstone Group (BX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Tractor Supply (TSCO), Nokia (NOK); (after close) Newmont Mining (NEM), Intel (INTC), Deckers (DECK), Sallie Mae (SLM)

Friday: (before open) Charter Communications (CHTR), Verizon (VZ), HCA Healthcare (HCA), American Express (AXP), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)

Conversely, data releases will be slim, most of the important announcements coming Friday, with Building Permits for June before the opening bell, floowed by New Home Sales at 10:00 am ET.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
06/12/2026	3.69	3.70	3.70	3.78	3.79	3.82	3.86
06/18/2026	3.69	3.69	3.74	3.83	3.85	3.92	4.00
06/26/2026	3.70	3.70	3.75	3.83	3.89	3.94	3.94
07/02/2026	3.70	3.73	3.81	3.82	3.91	3.98	3.96
07/10/2026	3.71	3.74	3.81	3.85	3.94	3.99	4.06
07/17/2026	3.73	3.75	3.80	3.85	3.91	3.96	4.01

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
06/12/2026	4.09	4.12	4.21	4.34	4.48	4.98	4.97
06/18/2026	4.19	4.19	4.23	4.34	4.46	4.91	4.90
06/26/2026	4.07	4.09	4.12	4.23	4.38	4.87	4.87
07/02/2026	4.14	4.16	4.23	4.35	4.49	4.99	4.98
07/10/2026	4.21	4.22	4.30	4.42	4.56	5.08	5.06
07/17/2026	4.18	4.21	4.28	4.40	4.55	5.07	5.06

Treasury yields remained elevated, with 10-year note yields holding at 4.55% and 30-year bond yields at 5.06 as the week ended. The Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh doesn't seem at all interested in intervening in the natural flow of money and they are becoming more and more tight-lipped about any of their proposed actions, which, considering the current environment of crosswinds - inflation on one side and employment on the other - gives the markets practically nothing from which to draw conclusions.

Spreads deviated, with 2s-10s higher at +37, but full spectrum (30-days - 30 years) dipping two basis points, to +133. There's absolutely nothing to be ascertained from this data other than the Fed is not about to move in any particular direction unless there's clear evidence, one way or the other. There is an FOMC meeting next week (July 28-29), but it appears that the Fed is going to hold steady on rates.

Reiterating last week's sentiment, smart money continues to contend that the Fed will do nothing until after the midterm elections, which would mean the December 9 FOMC meeting at the earliest, but re-engagement by the U.S. and Iran in a military confrontation throws all predictions into the blender. It's getting close to a situation in which the odds for a recession or blowout inflation are nearly equal. There's a chance Americans and Europeans may see both over the next 12-18 months.

If stocks continue to show weakness, there could be a considerable flow of money into fixed-income, given that yields appear to be generous at present. Rising prices for energy could be a catalyst for not only a severe decline in equities, but also a huge rally in bonds, though locking in yields for any maturity past two years seems a bit on the risky side. If, for instance, the 10-year pops above five percent and the 30-year above 5.65%, today's yields would be a losing proposition. With inflation/recession odds nearly equal, there are likely to be more losers than winners in both stocks and bonds given the uncertainties facing the various markets.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133

Oil/Gas

August WTI crude futures closed out the week at $81.77, a major boost from last week's closeout at $71.43 on the NY Mercantile Exchange. The obvious reason for the sudden blowout in oil is the resumption of serious military action in the region, with strikes and counter-strikes coming from the main protagonists, the U.S. and Iran. While the U.S. has largely stuck to destroying military installations near and around the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iran, they've also begun hammering infrastructure inside the country, targeting radio and cell towers in an attempt to cut off communications.

Iran has countered with strikes on airbases in U.S.-allied countries, including Jordan, where, supposedly, two American soldiers will killed, bringing the "official" death toll of Americans to a barely believable 16. OK. While the U.S. is supposedly winning the war, why is the cost of filling up my SUV continuing to go up?

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $3.82 last week and $3.97 this week, as the Middle East tinderbox exploded with military strikes throughout the region, the MOU between the U.S. and Iran completely shattered and an energy crisis dead ahead.

Reserves have been substantially drained by major economies around the world to keep prices under control, but they have largely reached bottoms. With reserves exhausted, conditions are ripe for a return to $5 gas in the U.S., as the president completely disregards the welfare of U.S. citizens. Prices should reach near-record levels in coming weeks as there seems to be no path toward resolution other than annihilation. It's a sad state of affairs.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.47 (+0.13)
Washington: $5.00 (+0.06)
Indiana (lowest): $3.36 (+0.11)
Oklahoma: $3.52 (+0.16)
Mississippi: $3.54 (+0.13)
Florida: $3.97 (+0.17)
Illinois: $4.15 (+0.09)
Pennsylvania: $4.19 (+0.24)
New York: $4.10 (+0.05)
Maryland: $3.99 (+0.14)
Michigan: $3.15 (+0.22)
Texas: $3.55 (+0.16)
Georgia: $3.74 (+0.20)

On Sunday, July 12th, there are seventeen (17) states with average prices above $4.00, with 31 below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.41) and Alaska ($4.70), with just one above $5 (California) and one right at the mark (Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past eight weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging below $4.00 ($3.52-3.74) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region a close second, prices ranging from $3.63 to $3.88. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest. Indiana ($3.36) remained the lowest due to Governor Mike Braun suspending state taxes at the pump. On July 2nd he extended the suspension into the first week of August.

Bitcoin

This week: $64,539.98
Last week: $64,092.58
2 weeks ago: $62,699.50
6 months ago: $92,019.80
One year ago: $118,429.20
Five years ago: $34,280.88

Bitcoin was relatively flat on the week, which is somewhat surprising, considering the problems in congress getting the CLARITY act to the finish line before the August recess. The bill is supposed to provide regulatory guidelines for crypto, but there are still sticking points related to stablecoins, DeFi, and blockchain developers. The bill was originally planned for passage coinciding with Independence Day, July 4, but the attempt to tie slave money on a blockchain to freedom and liberty failed miserably, as it should have.

The bill needs to overcome a 60-vote threshold due to filibuster rules in the Senate. It is arguably some of the worst financial regulation mishmash ever created. By that standard, however, it's surprising the money-grubbing bandits in congress haven't fully endorsed it.

Bitcoin and crypto in general remain among the worst investments of 2026. Bitcoin is down 26% year-to-date.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 71.84; last week: 68.83

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 6/18: $4,172.90
Gold price 6/26: $4,103.00
Gold price 7/2: $4,187.30
Gold price 7/10: $4,128.90
Gold price 7/17: $4,023.00

Silver price 6/18: $65.38
Silver price 6/26: $59.60
Silver price 7/2: $62.81
Silver price 7/10: $60.30
Silver price 7/17: $56.22

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 6/18: $4,210.00
Gold 6/26: $4,089.00
Gold 7/2: $4,122.76
Gold 7/10: $4,119.70
Gold 7/17: $4,016.89

Silver 6/18: $65.65
Silver: 6/26: $59.16
Silver 7/2: $60.93
Silver 7/10: $59.85
Silver 7/17: $55.91

Precious metals took another in an elongated series of hits last week, especially silver, which is now down more than 50% from previous highs in January. It's a distressing situation, which may be signaling disinflation or general demand destruction on a grand scale. Given the military uses for silver and the continuing shortage of metal, however, there could come a moment at which traders stop seeking a bottom and begin going long again.

Central banks are continuing to buy gold as a Tier 1` asset, outpacing Treasuries, and they're getting their loot at a discount. Dollar strength appears to have won the day for U.S. interests, but one has to wonder just how long the might greenback can remain elevated. Gold is not about to replace it, at least not in the very near term, but accumulation of tons of gold bars by national central banks surely has the dollar squarely in the crosshairs. Prices being as low as they are at present suggests a buying opportunity for those preferring patience over instant success.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	63.99	74.22	67.58	66.17
1 oz silver bar:	57.67	81.55	69.54	69.23
1 oz gold coin:	4102.07	4304.79	4228.40	4236.95
1 oz gold bar:	4164.79	4363.89	4225.37	4210.40

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) dropped substantially, closing the week at $68.13, for a decline of $4.32 per troy ounce from the July 12 price of $72.45.

WEEKEND WRAP

With worldwide tension mounting over the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, there is a silver lining. Even though ambitious senators and congressional members invoked the name of Lindsey Graham over the past week and especially on the Sunday morning talk shows, he remains dead, a condition neither an antichrist nor a messiah can change.

The world is a better place when war-mongers are eliminated from the herd and Senator Graham, responsible for the deaths of thousands, if not millions of innocent people, is better off soon forgotten.

At the Close, Friday, July 17, 2026:
Dow: 52,146.42, -406.55 (-0.77%)
NASDAQ: 25,520.24, -361.70 (-1.40%)
S&P 500: 7,457.69, -76.08 (-1.01%)
NYSE Composite: 23,816.97, -135.30 (-0.56%)

For the Week:
Dow: -490.59 (-0.93%)
NASDAQ: -761.37 (-2.90%)
S&P 500: -117.70 (-1.55%)
NYSE Composite: -108.10 (-0.45%)
Dow Transports: -546.01 (-2.46%)

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