According to the Monthly Statement from the U.S. Treasury Department [PDF]:
Year-to-Date, through August 31, the federal government has taken in (in millions) $4,845,452, and spent $6,811,043, for a deficit of $1,965,591. That means the budget deficit for fiscal 2026, which ends September 30, will be well over $2 trillion.
In August the US spent $98 billion on gross interest expense. With one month remaining in fiscal 2026, total US interest spending is now $1.267 trillion, up 12% from a year ago. Most of the deficit is now spent on paying interest on the debt. It has reached an unsustainable level that, if not corrected soon, will bankrupt the nation. Imagine a family taking in $50,000 a year, but spending close to $70,000 a year, paying roughly $15,000 just in interest on their mortgage, credit cards, car loans, etc., never touching the principal.
That is textbook bankruptcy. The only solutions are to re-negotiate the debt or earn more money, or some combination of both. The federal government and elected officials at the White House and in congress don't seem to be in any hurry to address this urgent issue. One can only assume that they are either galactically stupid or simply don't care. The problem is that it's probably a combination of the two, and the American public is supposed to get excited about the upcoming midterm elections, to see which party has control, when the fact of the matter is that neither party exercises any control of the budget whatsoever.
Those who have been around a while remember the subprime crisis of 2008-09, when the entire financial system was close to collapse. Back then, some 17 years ago, the national debt was $9 trillion. It's over $40 trillion today. The U.S. treasury, congress, and the Federal Reserve have managed to add $30 trillion in debt in less than 20 years, and they are adding more at a record pace.
The United States has reached a point at which the debt outstanding may never be repaid. There is no reasonable way to grow its way out of it, to increase revenue to begin trimming the deficit and the debt. At some point in the near future - likely within five to ten years or less - the U.S. government will face the reality of defaulting on its debt. Maybe not all of it, but some of it to be sure. As the congress and every president for the past 40 years has shown no appetite for reducing spending, the only alternative has been to inflate the money supply and debase the dollar, known to most citizens as inflation. It's an unreasonable solution at best.
At some point - and the U.S. is getting ever closer to it - basic necessities like food, energy, and shelter will become unaffordable for millions. Millions of people are already close to the edge or over it, unable to afford basic nutrition, decent housing, or adequate health care. Government handouts in the form of food stamps, Medicare, Medicaid, disability benefits, and assorted other give-away programs contribute to worsen the overall debt and deficit problems. America is rushing headlong not only into a lost decade, but possibly a lost generation, with a depression that may last 20 years or longer.
Stocks
Each of the major indices were lower for the week, though not to any serious degree. The Dow took the worst of it, losing 1.57%, or 840 points. Stocks remain very close to all-time highs, despite a variety of worries.
Conditions in the Middle East have gone from bad to worse, with crude oil hitting price levels not seen since May. Brent futures wer as high as $110 during the week; WTI topped out at $104 and change. Soaring oil prices and gas at the pump have producers and consumers on edge.
The tripwire to a market meltdown will be met this week, when the FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a policy rate decision due out at 2:00 pm ET on Wednesday. The CME's Fed watch tool has the probability of a federal funds target rate hike to 3.75-4.00% at 87.3%. Fed watchers are usually fairly accurate, so it appears that a hike is already in the pipeline. Three board members voted for a rate hike at the last meeting in July, so a few more may have moved into that camp after PPI and CPI readings from Thursday and Friday, respectively, though mostly in line with expectations, remain elevated.
Outside the FOMC policy decision, the major economic releases this week will be the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index (Tuesday), Import-Export Prices (Wednesday), the Philly Fed, Pending Home Sales, and Housing Starts on Thursday, and Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production readings for August on Friday.
Should the FOMC decide to raise rates, the impact on markets may be significant, though there's also the possibility that the narrative will include the words, "already priced in." (see more below)
Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07/2026 | 3.79 | 3.79 | 3.83 | 3.87 | 3.89 | 3.96 | 4.01 |
| 08/14/2026 | 3.79 | 3.80 | 3.81 | 3.86 | 3.88 | 3.95 | 3.98 |
| 08/21/2026 | 3.80 | 3.77 | 3.80 | 3.88 | 3.90 | 3.95 | 4.03 |
| 08/28/2026 | 3.84 | 3.83 | 3.86 | 3.90 | 3.94 | 4.02 | 4.15 |
| 09/04/2026 | 3.79 | 3.83 | 3.90 | 3.91 | 4.00 | 3.98 | 4.13 |
| 09/11/2026 | 3.93 | 3.99 | 4.05 | 4.07 | 4.15 | 4.12 | 4.35 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07/2026 | 4.19 | 4.25 | 4.35 | 4.49 | 4.65 | 5.20 | 5.19 |
| 08/14/2026 | 4.17 | 4.24 | 4.36 | 4.51 | 4.68 | 5.25 | 5.25 |
| 08/21/2026 | 4.24 | 4.31 | 4.43 | 4.57 | 4.74 | 5.25 | 5.27 |
| 08/28/2026 | 4.34 | 4.41 | 4.48 | 4.59 | 4.73 | 5.21 | 5.22 |
| 09/04/2026 | 4.37 | 4.45 | 4.54 | 4.65 | 4.78 | 5.25 | 5.24 |
| 09/11/2026 | 4.63 | 4.69 | 4.78 | 4.87 | 4.96 | 5.38 | 5.35 |
Interest rates across the Treasury complex moved dangerously higher this week with even the shortest-term bills spiking in anticipation of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming week. One-month bills closed out the week at 3.93%, well ahead of the anticipated 3.75-4.00% overnight rate the Fed is expected to impose when they announce their intentions on Wednesday, September 16.
The 10-year note rose 18 basis points, to 4.96% over the week, with the 30-year bond closing out at 5.35%, a gain of 11 basis points from the previous Friday. Particularly troubling was the 26 basis point advance on the two-year note, which rose to 4.63%.
Spreads remain elevated, though 2s-10s dropped to +33 (-8), but full spectrum kept the curve steep enough at +142 basis points. With short-term maturities already proactive to a rate hike, the concern is clearly at the long end. A ten-year yield above five percent is widely viewed as too extreme, though the word is that bond vigilantes, buyers who exert pressure on the market, are pushing for yields that match the general risk, which has turned from concern to panic.
Fed Chair Warsh has a difficult decision on Wednesday, but the market is telling him he has no choice but to raise rates now. Inflation is clearly not under control, with the CPI nowhere near the Fed's preferred two percent target. The Fed must act or risk even higher prices for everything from food and gas to boots, belts and bearings.
Producer prices appear to be the more concerning to markets. When companies cannot maintain prices at competitive levels due to higher input costs, the end result of higher overall prices is demand destruction, as manufacturers and service providers are forced to either raise prices or cut margins, which is a huge negative for bottom line profitability. The outlier risk is widespread demand destruction, wherein consumers simply stop buying until prices are eased back to more reasonable levels. All of this points to a slowdown in GDP, general disinflation and a stock market that would be vulnerable to a mass exodus, especially considering the extreme valuations on stocks at present.
There's even more concern at the funding level, given the high interest costs already in place on government borrowing. Rolling over bills and notes at interest rate levels higher than those being retired only exacerbates the critical condition of the federal balance sheet. While Warsh's rate hike will surely arrive with a menacing aftermath, he appears to have no choice but to do so. The federal government's spendthrift ways have outlasted the Fed's ability to keep order in credit markets. The blame will be directed at the Fed for obvious reasons when the real bad actors are all gainfully employed inside the Washington D.C. beltway.
Spreads:
2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37
7/24: +36
7/31: +47
8/7: +46
8/14: +51
8/21: +50
8/28: +39
9/4: +41
9/11: +33
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133
7/24: +136
7/31: +149
8/7: +140
8/14: +146
8/21: +147
8/28: +138
9/4: +145
9/11: +142
Oil/Gas
With the situation in the Middle East reaching even more extreme levels of conflict and the war - which is not a war, has already been won but still continues - has spread to include Saudi Arabia, as Yemeni rebels have escalated their attacks on the kingdom and blown up the lifeline pipeline by which the Saudis hoped to salvage their crippled oil business. Brent ($104.42)and WTI ($99.99) each closed the week at nearly four-month highs, the difference being that back in late May, prices were falling, whereas currently, they are rising.
Any continuation of U.S. war stupidity will be - and has been - met with serious resistance and counterstrikes by Iran and their proxies, particularly the Houthis in Yemen. The longer the U.S. prosecutes this now six-month escapade the worse conditions will become for Western economies and their populations. Inflation being the most insidious tax, energy inflation has a way of propagating throughout the consumer landscape.
Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.11 last week and $4.29 this week, rising to the highest Sunday price in nearly four months. Peace prospects in the Middle East have terminated, oil flows remain disrupted, and the president is getting serious heat from party members concerning the upcoming midterms, which Republicans are now more likely than ever to lose.
Gas prices in key states:
California (leader): $5.97 (+0.13)
Washington: $5.55 (+0.31)
Indiana: $3.59 (lowest) (+0.16)
Oklahoma: $3.82 (+0.18)
Louisiana: $3.87 (+0.13)
Mississippi: $3.83 (+0.13)
Florida: $4.12 (+0.23)
Illinois: $4.48 (+0.24)
Pennsylvania: $4.50 (+0.23)
New York: $4.36 (+0.06)
Maryland: $4.19 (+0.19)
Michigan: $4.31 (+0.31)
Texas: $3.84 (+0.19)
Georgia: $3.99 (+0.13)
On Sunday, September 13, there are thrity-four (34) states with average prices at or above $4.00, with fourteen (14) below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.35) and Alaska ($5.06), with four above $5 (California, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past 12 weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging below $4.00 ($3.82-3.99) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region second, prices ranging now much higher, from $3.99 to $4.31. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois in the Midwest. Prices in the Northeast rose steadily this week, with all states, from Delaware and Maryland all the way to Maine, averaging well above $4.00. Gas prices overall were higher in every state on the mainland, bar none.
Bitcoin
This week: $77,245.85
Last week: $79,607.76
2 weeks ago: $78,862.44
6 months ago: $71,115.02
One year ago: $115,717.90
Five years ago: $48,306.64
Still crap. Now even crappier (cheaper).
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 67.43; last week: 66.91
Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 8/14: $4,432.00
Gold price 8/21: $4,661.60
Gold price 8/28: $4,504.10
Gold price 9/4: $4,477.20
Gold price 9/11: $4,390.00
Silver price 8/14: $64.82
Silver price 8/21: $69.01
Silver price 8/28: $67.09
Silver price 9/4: $66.82
Silver price 9/11: $65.02
SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 8/14: $4,375.15
Gold 8/21: $4,609.49
Gold 8/28: $4,454.08
Gold 9/4: $4,429.45
Gold 9/11: $4,348.10
Silver 8/14: $64.68
Silver 8/21: $68.96
Silver 8/28: $66.34
Silver 9/4: $66.20
Silver 9/11: $64.48
Gold and silver prices declined for a third straight week on the spot market,
As of Friday, September 11, the Shanghai silver price was $72.74/oz versus a U.S. spot of $64.48/oz, a +12.81% China premium. This implies that shipping 1,000 ounces of silver bought in the United States across the Pacific Ocean and sold in China, would result in a gross profit $8,260. Netting out transportation, insurance, and other related costs (for argument, let's say $1000), one would still be more than $7,000 ahead in such a transaction. It's not outside the realm of possibility that this kind of activity is already taking place and very likely at a much larger scale.
The difference in price between China and the U.S. might be a factor in the prices for one-ounce finished silver tracked in the Money Daily weekly eBay survey. For the past three weeks, even as silver lost ground on the COMEX and spot markets, prices paid on eBay remained stubbornly high, according to the SOSMPB. This week, even as silver hit a five-week low, eBay buyers were more than ready to shell out at premium levels above even the Shanghai price.
While this evidence is merely anecdotal, it does suggest that at least some silver buyers are not paying heed to U.S. price rigging on the COMEX and LBMA. Many of the dealers on eBay such as APMEX, Scottsdale, Pinehurst, Aydin, JM Bullion, and others are successfully pricing and selling their one-ounce silver offerings (coins and/or bars) at levels upwards of $70 and higher. Understandably, eBay's fee structure adds anywhere from 10-15% to a seller's cost, but the large dealers don't seem to mind so long as they're getting premium prices.
Because of the fees doled out by eBay, dealers have to price their items at higher levels. A 10% fee on a $70 silver coin knocks the net proceeds down to $63, below U.S. spot, which helps explain why the SOSMPB has been bouncing between $76 and $78 the past few weeks. Dealers have to make a profit and buyers don't seem to mind. Anybody who has ever sold PMs on ebay would assume that the premium paid on the purchase would be at least partially recouped upon a successful sale of the same or similar items.
The same cannot be said for gold, The Shanghai premium on gold is much lower on a percentage basis, roughly $30 higher than the U.S. spot price, so prices on eBay are much less affected, though prices paid for gold have always been at a significant premium to spot and remain tat way. The difference is just not as pronounced as it is with silver.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 oz silver coin: | 71.00 | 89.70 | 77.95 | 77.00 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 73.87 | 82.54 | 78.13 | 77.64 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 4484.97 | 4745.71 | 4606.75 | 4593.84 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 4537.97 | 4637.03 | 4579.82 | 4566.97 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) gained over the course of the week, finishing at $77.68, a gain of 94 cents per troy ounce from the September 6 price of $76.72.
WEEKEND WRAP
We're all out of words for the week.
At the Close, Friday, September 11, 2026:
Dow: 52,573.29, +509.19 (+0.98%)
NASDAQ: 26,333.04, +251.31 (+0.96%)
S&P 500: 7,656.98, +65.28 (+0.86%)
NYSE Composite: 24,331.56, +190.92 (+0.79%)
For the Week:
Dow: -840.96 (-1.57%)
NASDAQ: -173.96 (-0.66%)
S&P 500: -61.62 (-0.80%)
NYSE Composite: -307.69 (-1.25%)
Dow Transports: -343.46 (-1.82%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
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