WEEKEND WRAP: Market Nerves Frayed as Midterms Approach; Oil Spikes Higher; Gold, Silver Wrecked, Prompting Central Bank Buying Pressure

“The government you elect is the government you deserve.”

― Thomas Jefferson

Jefferson saw the problems of a democratically-elected government well before they became apparent in American society. The question in the present time is whether or not Americans actually elect a government that is deserving of its posture atop the political system. The entrenched two-party system virtually guarantees that Americans are not well-represented, the nature of politics ensuring that special interests and large money donors have better access and representation than individual constituents.

Thus, with the midterm elections a mere 10 days forward, the prospects of newly-minted congressmen and women actually serving the will of the great unwashed public remains largely in doubt. Decades of apathy, ignoring a corrupt system, has brought about a congress that does little to provide for the general welfare and presidents who go their own ways and rule by edicts of executive orders, which are neither laws nor enforceable, yet the public plays along as best it can, all the time failing to notice how far their republic has strayed from its original intentions.

In a matter of days, the congressional rotation will be finalized, new members seated in early January. After the votes are counted and before new representatives and senators are seated, the government will operate as a lame duck legislature. Nothing will change. No new laws will be enacted. America will have shortchanged itself again with two months of wrangling on Capitol Hill over leadership, chairmanships, and agendas. There will be two months of turmoil before full-blown chaos come January.

Markets, especially the equity ones, will continue to spin and churn without direction. Two events will determine the future for stocks and the general economy: the FOMC rate policy decision on Wednesday, October 28 and the election results on the evening of November 3rd.

Presently, the FOMC decision appears to favor a draw, with the fderal funds target rate stuck at 3.75-4.00% and the CME Fedwatch Tool showing a 90% majority predicting no change. The elections across the country - if polls are to be believed - favors the House flipping to Democrat party control and the Senate in a virtual deadlock once all the votes are counted and verified.

The issue for investors is whether these events will produce markets that are more of the same, or whether they will spin to the upside or lower. This kind of uncertainty is what has kept stocks from making decisive moves in either direction over the past few months.

Time is running short on the drama in Washington. Many will just be glad that it’s over... for another couple of years.

Stocks

The main indices split for the week, with concerns over AI buildout and Capex costs driving the S&P and NASDAQ lower, while fear and safety concerns drove investors to dividend-producing stocks on the Dow. Next week could see the reverse, but it bears notice that each of the major indices - the Dow Industrials, S&P, NASDAQ, NYSE Composite, and Dow Transports - closed out the week below their respective 50-day moving averages, such a position either a portent of what's to follow in weeks and months ahead or a general statement of investor indecision. In either case, it's a negative on market sentiment, which seems to be continuing momentum toward a reality shock. Whether such an event actually is realized has much to do with current events rather than profits and earnings.

Speaking of earnings, the trend has been mostly distressing. Many companies are reporting beats against EPS estimates while falling short on revenues, a trend that indicates a spending downturn, the main culprit being inflation, i.e., high prices on producer and consumer prices, borne out by the September CPI and PPI readings and the structure in oil futures and gas at the pump.

The week ahead is one of the two biggest in terms of volume of companies reporting third quarter results. Here's a partial list of heavy hitters making the rounds in the week ahead, including some Mag7 stocks and Dow components:

Monday (before open): Cemex (CX), Verizon (VZ); (after close) Nucor (NUE), Whirlpool (WHR), The Hartford (HIG), Rambus (RMBS), Cadence (CDNS)

Tuesday (before open): Coca-Cola (KO), Corning (GLW), PayPal (PYPL), UPS (UPS), SoFi (SOFI), Freeport McMoRan (FCX), Canon (CAJPY); (after close) SK Hynix (SKHY), Visa (V), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Robinhood (HOOD), Seagate (STX), Waste Management (WM)

Wednesday (before open): Boston Scientific (BSX), UBS (UBS), ADP (ADP), GE Vernova (GEV), International Paper (IP), Phillips Petroeum (PSX); (after close): Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Carvana (CVNA), FedEx (FDX), T-Mobile (TMUS), Chipolte Mexican Grill (CMG)

Thursday, (before open): Caterpillar (CAT), Carrier (CARR), Eli Lilly (LLY), L3 Harris (LHX), Vulcan Materials (VMC); (after close): Amazon (AMZN), Intel (INTC), Reddit (RDDT), Twillo (TWLO), Rivian (RIVN), Starbucks (SBUX), Sandisk (SNDK), Roblox (RBLX)

Friday, (before open): Regeneron (REGN), AutoNation (AN), AstraZeneca (AZN), General Dynamics (GD), British Petroleum (BP), ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX)

On the economic front, the market get recent economic information from the Chicago and Dallas Fed on Monday. Tuesday, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is released along with New Home Sales and a report from the Richmond Fed. The FOMC meeting concludes Wednesday with the policy announcement at 2:00 pm ET. Thursday, the PCE Index for September is released and the first reading on third quarter GDP.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
09/18/2026	3.97	3.98	4.10	4.14	4.24	4.24	4.44
09/25/2026	4.04	4.14	4.20	4.24	4.32	4.33	4.50
10/02/2026	4.04	4.09	4.11	4.19	4.26	4.27	4.46
10/09/2026	4.13	4.13	4.13	4.25	4.29	4.32	4.47
10/16/2026	4.12	4.14	4.17	4.26	4.32	4.34	4.46
10/23/2026	4.11	4.11	4.16	4.22	4.30	4.30	4.44

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
09/18/2026	4.76	4.83	4.86	4.93	5.01	5.38	5.34
09/25/2026	4.81	4.94	4.98	5.06	5.17	5.54	5.49
10/02/2026	4.83	4.96	5.06	5.17	5.28	5.67	5.63
10/09/2026	4.80	4.89	5.02	5.13	5.24	5.65	5.60
10/16/2026	4.74	4.82	4.89	4.98	5.09	5.47	5.43
10/23/2026	4.69	4.75	4.82	4.89	5.00	5.37	5.33

Yields dropped off during the week, but ended only slightly lower than the previous Friday, with the 10-year note yielding 5.00% and the 30-year dropping ten basis points to 5.33%, levels of comfort for investors piling out of stocks late in the week.

Notes and bonds have bounced around significantly during the past month, driven by war and inflation. The 30-year yield is now 0.30% lower than on October 2nd; the 10-year yield is off 28 basis points.

The FOMC meets this week - Tuesday and Wednesday - and unless Chairman Warsh decides to stun the market (and the president), rates will stay on hold at the current 3.75-4.00% level. As for the politics of the interest rate condition, it seems to be close to a 'Mission Accomplished" moment for the Republicans, keeping rates from screaming higher amid economic turmoil and the fog of war.

2s-10s spreads narrowed to +31. The full spectrum, 30-days to 30-years spread dropped nine basis points to a reasonable +122.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37
7/24: +36
7/31: +47
8/7: +46
8/14: +51
8/21: +50
8/28: +39
9/4: +41
9/11: +33
9/18: +25
9/25: +36
10/2: +45
10/9: +44
10/16: +35
10/23: +31

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133
7/24: +136
7/31: +149
8/7: +140
8/14: +146
8/21: +147
8/28: +138
9/4: +145
9/11: +142
9/18: +137
9/25: +145
10/2: +159
10/9: +147
10/16: +131
10/23: +122

Oil/Gas

Oil prices spiked higher again as Mideast kinesis continued to escalate. Brent closed out the week above $115/barrel and WTI crude futures at $103.27. The Trump administration's attempts at controlling the price of oil and gas at the pump have met with disaster. A majority of Americans are unhappy about Trump's handling of both the Ukraine and Iran conflicts and the high prices of fuel and food.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.27 last week and $4.28 this week, though this brief respite is unlikely to last, given the higher price of crude. Gas at the pump has been - by whatever means - generally lower the past three weeks despite the rising price of crude oil. Fishy, to say the least, and likely politically-motivated, with the lowest prices in Republican strongholds or states they'd like to win (Texas, North Carolina), with price increases in Democrat-controlled states (Michigan, Illinois, Indiana).

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $6.00 (-0.15)
Washington: $5.28 (-0.09)
Indiana: $3.99 (+0.14)
Oklahoma: $3.84 (-0.04)
Louisiana: $3.73 (-0.09)
Mississippi: $3.77 (-0.08)
Florida: $4.09 (+0.02)
Illinois: $4.89 (+0.22)
Pennsylvania: $4.43 (-0.04)
New York: $4.34 (-0.04)
Maryland: $3.96 (-0.14)
Michigan: $4.80 (+0.33)
Texas: $3.68 (-0.06)
Georgia: $3.61 (-0.07)
North Carolina $3.46 (lowest) (-0.14)

On Sunday, October 25, there are thirty-three (33) states with average prices at or above $4.00, with fifteen (15) below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.63) and Alaska ($4.79), with three above $5 (California, Nevada, and Washington) and one, California, right at $6.00. The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past 17 weeks, with prices generally below $4.00 ($3.46-3.85) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region second, prices slightly higher, from $3.92 to $4.20. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest.

Northeast states, north of Delaware and Maryland all the way to Maine, continue to average well above $4.00.

Bitcoin

This week: $80,529.22
Last week: $81,297.99
2 weeks ago: $82,717.91
6 months ago: $75,939.33
One year ago: $111,284.20
Five years ago: $61,855.90

Crypto still resembles a fantasy video game played by idiots and children, with bitcoin acting as some kind of magical king with special powers. It's all still speculative junk, up 30% from five years out and down 28% from a year ago.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 74.25 last week: 73.22;

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 9/25: $4,320.50
Gold price 10/2: $4,172.10
Gold price 10/9: $4,220.30
Gold price 10/16: $4,186.70
Gold price 10/23: $4,010.00

Silver price 9/25: $64.71
Silver price 10/2: $60.71
Silver price 10/9: $61.11
Silver price 10/16: $57.13
Silver price 10/23: $53.96

SPOT: (Kitco)
Gold 9/25: $4,283.78
Gold 10/2: $4,141.90
Gold 10/9: $4,193.60
Gold 10/16: $4,164.10
Gold 10/23: $3,994.90

Silver 9/25: $64.28
Silver 10/2: $60.39
Silver 10/9: $60.70
Silver 10/16: $56.87
Silver 10/23: $53.80

Until the midterms are over at the least and the December 9 FOMC policy rate decision is concluded, gold and silver will likely remain under pressure, a condition that could worsen if the Fed decides to hike rates again in the mistaken belief that yields on fixed income vehicles are preferable against the non-interest-bearing precious metals. The fallacy of the argument comes from inflation, which degrades the purchasing power of currencies. In real terms, gold and silver beat inflation at every turn, no matter the temporary price.

Presently, central banks, especially China, Russia, and other Eastern entities, are more than pleased with the recent price downturn in gold, allowing them to ramp up their reserves at bargain-basement prices. Silver remains the ugly child, though individual stackers are stocking up, with the gold:silver ratio approaching 75.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	60.00	75.00	65.22	64.81
1 oz silver bar:	62.08	72.00	66.88	67.26
1 oz gold coin:	4131.70	4366.33	4235.07	4215.47
1 oz gold bar:	4167.28	4268.36	4208.66	4209.29

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell again during the week, dropping to $66.04, a loss of $1.96 per troy ounce from the October 18 price of $68.00.

WEEKEND WRAP

The latter part of the week witnessed a massive flight to safety, as the tech sector continued to implode and money flowed into treasuries and corporate debt issuance. As the midterms approach and afterwards, there may be just plain flight out of stocks and a huge downturn depending on how the market interprets election results. Even if Republicans - by some uncanny stroke of luck or other means - manage to hold a majority in the House and/or Senate, market reaction could accelerate in a downward direction.

At the Close, Friday, October 23, 2026:
Dow: 52,215.16, -652.82 (-1.23%)
NASDAQ: 25,955.34, -53.52 (-0.21%)
S&P 500: 7,623.68, -39.75 (-0.52%)
NYSE Composite: 24,117.27, -158.26 (-0.65%)

For the Week:
Dow: +212.75 (+0.41%)
NASDAQ: -184.69 (-0.71%)
S&P 500: -35.76 (-0.47%)
NYSE Composite: +28.68 (+0.12%)
Dow Transports: +162.08 (+0.82%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Tech, AI Infrastructure Spending Under Assault as NASDAQ Suffers Another Major Decline; Earnings Reports Unimpressive; Fiat Currencies Dying

At last, it's Friday and the stock market can rest for a couple of days.

Stocks, especially anything even remotely related to AI or the infrastructure buildout and its enormous Capex budgets, were bludgeoned on Thursday, with the NASDAQ and S&P taking the full brunt of a semi-panic mood. Investors rushed to dividend-producing stocks on the Dow and into treasuries, sending the 10-year yield down to 4.95%, a massive drop of 20 basis points from Wednesday's close of 5.15% and the first time the 10-year has been below five percent, suspiciously, in exactly one month.

As usual, the information, analysis, and/or advice offered by financial institutions, politicians, statisticians, chartists, scientists and the mainstream media backing all of their conclusions is complete nonsense, and missed the bigger picture completely. The United States the UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and the Eurozone continue to spiral toward a currency crisis, manifested by increasingly high levels of inflation, i.e., loss of purchasing power in the fiat currency regime.

That is the overwhelming problem that nobody in the mainstream dares mention, precisely because it is the truth and the conclusions are frightening. Western economies are in decline without a doubt and the main cause has been, still is, and will continue to be fractional reserve banking and excessive monetary profligacy, papering over the obvious by issuing more and more currency, all of it backed by debt.

The world will keep on spinning, but, standards of living in developed Western economies will continue to be plagued by central banking and debt-backed currency until there is a radical reset back to something resembling a gold standard or, in simpler terms, honest money. Dollars, yen, pounds, euros and the like are not money. They are money substitutes, credit, and derivatives. Western nations use the currency to measure wealth, while compared to gold, they are all in severe decline. Keeping a lid on gold and silver works only as far as inflation can be contained or moderated. Inflation is currently out of control and there's little any central bank or government can do to halt its relentless destruction of fiat paper currencies. Most of the developed world is on the brink of hyperinflation, once again, a subject that is strictly taboo in the financial and mainstream media.

After Thursday's closing bell and prior to Friday's open, a few companies reported earnings for the third quarter, including:
Bloom Energy (BE) - top and bottom beats, shares down 4% pre-market
Western Digital (WDC) - EPS, revenue beats, stock down 2.5%
Verisign (VRSN) - EPS miss, revenue in-line, stock is flat
Newmont Mining (NEM) - EPS, revenue beats, stock down 1-2%
Booze Allen (BAH) - EPS beat, revenue miss, shares up 1-2%
American Express (AXP) - EPS beat, revenue miss, stock down 1-2%

Of those companies, perhaps only American Express and Bloom Energy are significant, though the suspicion is that all stocks are being dragged down by the increasingly-negative sentiment spreading through Wall Street. One consistent theme this earnings season has been the recurrence of EPS beats with revenue misses, indicating that the economy is contracting rather than expanding, the GDP figures that will emerge next week (Thursday) clouded by inflation. Government figures being mostly professional guessing, it can safely be assured that GDP for the third quarter will come in somewhere between 1.5 and 2.5% higher. The modeling and massaging of GDP estimates are inadequate at best, outright lies at worst. The U.S. economy hasn't “officially” been in a recession for the past five years (pandemic-induced, 2020) and that was the shortest on record. The last actual recession in the U.S. was in 2008-2009, 17 years ago. It would not be a stretch to conclude that the U.S. is overdue for one. It's currently being delayed until after the midterms.

There is a strong likelihood that the U.S. will enter recession either in the fourth quarter of 2026 or the first quarter of 2027. All the elements are in place, including overvalued stocks, two wars, high inflation, and uneasiness lurking behind every headline.

With U.S. equity markets due to open in minutes, stock futures are again collapsing, with the Dow leading lower by 400 points, the NASDAQ down 45, and the S&P off 25.

Have a nice weekend. Enjoy some football and the World Series and buy some gold or silver.

At the Close, Thursday, October 22, 2026:
Dow: 52,867.98, +11.89 (+0.02%)
NASDAQ: 26,008.86, -694.00 (-2.60%)
S&P 500: 7,663.43, -93.74 (-1.21%)
NYSE Composite: 24,275.53, +22.41 (+0.09%)

Futures Slide After Tesla, IBM, Meta Report Earnings; Middle East Remains Aflame as Houthis, Iran Escalate; Midterms Have Republicans Worried

As was widely expected, quarterly returns from SpaceX drove stocks higher on Wednesday, but each day during any earnings season tells a different story with diverse stocks reporting for the given quarter.

After Wednesday's close, three big names hit the wires with thrid quarter results. IBM (IBM), Tesla (TSLA), and Meta Platforms (META) all moved in after-hours trading.

IBM posted third quarter revenue of $17.1 billion on Wednesday, up 5% from a year earlier, and adjusted earnings of $2.95 a share, both ahead of estimates. The company also projected free cash flow to increase by more than $1 billion in the fourth quarter and projected revenue growth of 4-5% for the upcoming quarter. Despite the rosy outlook, investors preferred to take profits. Shares of "Big Blue" dropped by more than five percent in after-hours trading and extended losses into Thursday morning.

Tesla (TSLA) reported quarterly revenue of $28 billion, compared with analysts’ expectations of $28.3 billion. Adjusted earnings of $0.48 per share narrowly topped estimates of $0.45 per share. The electric car company lowered its full year 2026 capital expenditures to $20 billion, down from $25 billion. Shares sold off afte the report. As of Thursday morning's pre-market ticker, Tesla is down more than three percent on concerns the company will be unable to meet projections set by Chairman Elon Musk.

Exclusive of Thursday's expected downturn, Tesla is off 12% year-to-date, the worst performance of any Mag7 stock.

Finally, Meta Platforms (META) completed the trifecta of sour notes, beating EPS and revenue estimates, but top-heavy Capex spending on AI quieted investor enthusiasm for the social network leader. Shares were seen slipping by 2-3% in early morning trading.

Elsewhere, reporting overnight:
Lam Research (LRCX) - beat top and bottom, but warned supply chain issues will delay revenue growth in upcoming quarter, sending the stock down more than seven percent
Texas Instruments (TXN) - EPS and revenue beats, stock flat to one percent lower
Crown Castle (CCI) - EPS and revenue miss, stock down less than 1%, but figures to be lower after Thursday's open

Thursday, before the opening bell:
Comcast (CMCSA) - EPS, revenue beat, shares up 2-3%, but stock is trading at depressed levels, down 21% y-t-d
Tractor Supply (TSCO) - EPS, revenue beat, reaffirms guidance, shares down 5% pre-market
Lockheed Martin (LMT) - EPS, revenue beat, stock up 3-4% on positive guidance, record backlog
Nokia (NOK) - Solid beats on revenue, EPS, but stock slips 5-6% on lowered AI CAPEX spending
Blackstone Group (BX) - EPS beat, revenue shortfall, stock down 3-4% pre-market
American Airlines (AAL) - EPS, revenue beats, but guidance was negative on higher fuel costs, shares down 4%
Valero (VLO) - energy company beats top and bottom, shares up 1-2%

The general takeaway from pre-market sentiment is that the AI buildout trade is weighing heavily on stocks related to semis and tech, especially Mag7, affecting overall mood of the market. Stock futures have been deep in the red all morning Thursday. An hour prior to the open, Dow futures are off 310, NASDAQ futures have shed 390 points, and S&P 500 futures are down 73 points, all pointing to a tense opening to the downside.

Adding to the uneasy mood, Asian stock indices imploded overnight. South Korea's Kospi dropped more than three percent; Japan's NIKKEI fell 2.65%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng ripped lower by three percent.

Continued rioting by migrants in France has kept European stocks under pressure, and French 10-year bonds hit five percent (5%) for the first time since 2002.

In the continuing catastrophe in the Middle East, Iran boldly claims to have hit seven oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz as Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure continue at a frenetic pace. With Washington taking an eased-back approach - President Trump avowing not to strike Iran until after the midterms - conditions in the region are deteriorating rapidly.

Brent crude oil futures topped $112 overnight and WTI futures have dropped below $100 due to arbitrage and speculative trading, having little to do with actual pricing of oil coming out of the Gulf region or elsewhere. Gas prices in the U.S. are also lower, pressure being applied by the White House in advance of the midterm elections. Missing the big picture completely, precious metals continue to sell off. Gold traded as low as $4,054 and silver slipped below $56/ounce.

Prospects leading into Thursday's trade and the seven remaining market days before the midterm appear to be slipping from the Republican's narrative control. Beyond overvaluation, cracks in the credit markets are re-appearing due to overcrowding by the need for AI spending. 10-year yields are at 5.15% and the 30-year is yielding 5.35%, clearly, the easing off in credit markets is only temporary. Real, sustained pressure on fixed income has not yet been fleshed out. Next week's FOMC meeting may take the temperature down a bit further, only if the Fed decides to keep rates on hold, though the December meeting may turn out to be a make-up call, with a possible 50 basis point hike getting attention.

There's no fixing what's being broken by runaway politicians, crazed neocons, overspending on AI, and the hidden commercial real estate crash without a serious step back in stocks. Thursday's action may offer a glimpse of what's ahead.

Simply put, there are just too many bad things happening for stocks to keep ratcheting higher.

At the Close, Wednesday, October 21, 2026:
Dow: 52,856.09, +360.21 (+0.69%)
NASDAQ: 26,702.86, +278.04 (+1.05%)
S&P 500: 7,757.17, +44.60 (+0.58%)
NYSE Composite: 24,253.12, +62.51 (+0.26%)

SpaceX Sends Stock Futures Higher; "Peace Talks" Leading the Pre-Election Narrative; Stocks Remain Near Highs

A flurry of earnings reports following Tuesday's closing bell and in front of Wednesday's open are likely to give tech and AI stocks a huge boost when the bell rings.

The initial surge will be largely the result of Elon Musk's Spacex (SPCX), which reported Q3 revenue of $14.58 billion, net income of $4.4 billion, and mentioned a potential merger with another of Musk's companies, Tesla (TSLA). The stock surged in the after hours Tuesday and is running about eight percent higher in the pre-market.

After the close Tuesday, the following companies reported:
Netflix (NFLX) - topped EPS estimates, revenue miss, soft guidance sends the stock down 7% pre-market
United Airlines (UAL) - earnings and revenue miss, stock flat
Chubb (CB) - EPS beat, revenue miss, stock down 1%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) - top and bottom beats, shares down more than 8% pre-market after the company agreed to pay $450 million to settle the da Vinci antitrust class action.
CapitalOne (COF) - EPS, revenue beats, shares up 3-4%

Wednesday before the open:
AT&T (T) - EPS, revenue beats, shares down 4%
CME Group (CME) - EPS, revenue beats, shares flat
Abbot Labs (ABT) - top and bottom beats, stock down 4%
Philip Morris (PM) - EPS, revenue beats, shares down 2-3%

After the market closes Wednesday, IBM (IBM), Tesla (TSLA), Meta Platforms (META), Lam Research (LRCX), Texas Instruments (TXN), Crown Castle (CCI) will provide more depth.

Futures have reacted well to the earnings reports issued, with Dow futures up 171 points, NASDAQ futures up 180, and S&P futures up 22 points.

Traders undoubtably were comfortable with the SpaceX earnings, less so with others mostly outside the tech space, led by softer or negative guidance from a handful of companies. Particularly poignant was Netflix's guidance as the company loses market share to other streaming services, and AT&T, which is under pressure from rival telecommunications companies and is likely to lose market share when Starlink begins offering cell phone service.

There's also a healthy skepticism over the recent "peace" initiatives in both the Middle East and Ukraine conflicts. The market has heard the same story before, and now suspects that President Trump is using the softer tone to lure voters toward Republican candidates in various primaries. His flip-flopping offers two scenarios: 1) after the midterms, the conflicts escalate, or 2) he seriously desires peace and will wind down the wars after the voting ends.

Since the president has not been exactly dutiful in carrying out campaign promises, there's sufficient evidence to suggest that the conflicts will continue well after the midterms, no matter which direction congress turns. Most registered voters in various polls have a distaste for war, with about a 60-40 split favoring ending them. Americans are usually opposed to military conflicts, even though the government has regularly taken part in many regional escapades since World War II.

Early voting is underway in most states that offer it with Election Day just 12 days down the road.

At this juncture, it would be no surprise if nothing on the war fronts changed significantly up to the midterms, despite the narrative continuing to lean toward peace talks or other softer tones. Voters may have figured out that the Republicans are engaged in electioneering at its worst.

At the Close, Tuesday, October 20, 2026:
Dow: 52,495.88, +529.85 (+1.02%)
NASDAQ: 26,424.82, -6.07 (-0.02%)
S&P 500: 7,712.57, +21.84 (+0.28%)
NYSE Composite: 24,190.62, +223.55 (+0.93%)

Stocks Slip After Earnings Fail to Inspire Market Confidence; Housing Market in Decline with Starts Down 5.2% in September

Anticipating strong earnings from a number of bellwether stocks later in the week, Monday's gains on the NASDAQ will ultimately turn out ot be superfluous. Like a poor running line on a race horse in the past performances, one might just as well draw a line through the day's results because they were based on nothing more than seeing how high a dead cat could bounce.

The earnings reports that will dominate the week began sorting themselves out after the close late Monday when some smaller, less-tech-related companies reported third quarter results:

Steel Dynamics (STLD) - missed top and bottom, shares off more than 5% in pre-market action
Crown Holdings (CCK) - EPS, revenue beats, stock down 4% on poor forward guidance
Zions Bancorporation (ZION) - EPS, revenue beats, stock is flat pre-open

Tuesday, before the open, these companies reported:
3M (MMM) - small EPS beat, revenue miss for Dow component, sends shares up 2% in early trading
Hasbro (HAS) - shares up 2% pre-market for toy-maker after strong EPS, revenue beats, positive forecast for holidays
Ally Financial (ALLY) - EPS beat, shares flat
Northrop Grumman (NOC) - EPS beat, revenue miss for MIC favorite; shares flat
General Motors (GM) - top and bottom beats, forecast dull, company announces $20 billion buyback, investors balk, shares down 6%
GE Aerospace (GE) - bullish forecast after EPS, earnings beats, shares down 4%
Halliburton (HAL) - EPS, revnue beats, company highlights dividend, stock up 3-4%

After Tuesday's close, there may be fireworks with Spacex (SPCX), Netflix (NFLX), United Airlines (UAL), Chubb (CB), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), and CapitalOne (COF) reporting. Stay frosty and stay tuned.

Putting Monday and Tuesday's earnings spotlight into perspective, these results were nothing special given already-high valuations in most sectors. While these companies are more mainstream economy rather than tech-related, their results suggest the economy just trundling along, growing GDP at a rate of one to two percent, but nothing to infer an overheated condition, which should be bullish against the growling angst of rate hikes at next week's FOMC meeting. Consensus says the Fed will stand pat on rates, though a 0.50% hike in December is becoming more of a worry.

Also throwing some shade on market sentiment, this morning's Housing Starts, Building Permits, and Pending Home Sales did little to instill confidence.

Housing Starts were down 5.2% in September, with August revised lower to -5.9% month-on-month. Building Permits for September were also lower, down 0.2% on a monthly basis. Another shoe to drop comes at 10:00 am, when the National Association of Realtors posts Pending Home Sales for September. The August figures showed a gain of 0.3% month over month and a flop of 4.7% year-over-year. Higher mortgage rates and high prices have contributed to the slack in the market. Single-family starts are the lowest in a year nationally.

Oil continues to be a concern as reports say two more tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz by Iran Monday night, sending WTI futures up as high as $110/barrel, catching up to Brent, which was quoted above $112. Prices on futures markets for both are off those highs prior to the opening bell on Wall Street.

France is burning, the country being wrecked by riots and mob violence, mostly coming in the form of organized youthful protestors of Arabic origin. France's CAC is down nearly five percent year-to-date with no apparent end to the violence, mostly related to upcoming elections in 2027 in which France will elect a new president and vote for delegates to their parliament. The rioting is seen by analysts to be a positive for right-leaning Marine Le Pen's National Rally party, which advocates against open immigration. Current President Emmanuel Macron is not able to run for re-election.

All of this leads to stock futures flat to slightly lower heading toward the bell. While there doesn't appear to be much to suggest stocks moving higher, there is ample supply of potholes into which investors can step if not careful.

Gold and silver continue to be depressed and suppressed. Nothing new there.

At the Close, Monday, October 19, 2026:
Dow: 51,966.03, -36.38 (-0.07%)
NASDAQ: 26,430.89, +290.85 (+1.11%)
S&P 500: 7,690.73, +31.29 (+0.41%)
NYSE Composite: 23,967.07, -121.56 (-0.50%)