WEEKEND WRAP: Will a Peace Dividend Emerge? Trump, White House Expected to Announce Peace Deal with Iran Sunday, June 14

Peace - at least for the present - in the Middle East has finally been achieved, after more than three months of conflict, ceasefire, and back-and-forth between Iran and the United States.

Headline worshippers will gush endlessly about the brilliance of President Trump's strategies to topple Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, there will be no mention of the 2009 Brookings Institution white paper, "Which Path to Persia", in which most of the options for U.S. dealings with Iran were laid out years ago.

Which Path to Persia? Options for a New American Strategy toward Iran is a product of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. The essays were written by Saban Center scholars Daniel L. Byman, Martin Indyk, Suzanne Maloney, Michael E. O’Hanlon, Kenneth M. Pollack, and Bruce Riedel. Kenneth Pollack also served as the overall editor.

The entire 170-page document can be downloaded here [PDF], no strings attached.

Iran has been a focus of U.S. intelligence for many years. The CIA didn't overthrow the popularly-elected leader of Iran in 1953 and install the puppet leader, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, because they didn't have anything better to do. The 1953 coup in Iran was a significant event where the United States and the United Kingdom orchestrated a coup d'état that overthrew Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh and reinstated Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi as the leader of Iran. Mosaddegh was placed under house arrest for the remainder of his life.

Always a regional power that the U.S. viewed as a deterrent bulwark opposed to British, U.S. and Israeli interests in the region. The many years and decades of influence and intervention is not likely to cease with Sunday's forecast signing of a MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) between the U.S. and Iran. At the very least, it stops most of the militarism in the region and would ostensibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. It will serve as a path forward for the global economy, which was greatly threatened by the cessation of oil and other key commodity traffic through the Persian Gulf.

As Sunday morning unfolds to Sunday afternoon, both the White House and Iranian officials have remained mum on deal progress, even as Israel throws a spanner by bombing the southern suburbs of Beirut earlier today. Since today is Trump's 80th birthday, expect the White House to follow through, though what arrives as narrative may not stand up to a reality check in coming days. The ongoing farce of peace vs. war may come to some kind of halt on Sunday or continue along with yet another unkept promise.

Don't stay glued to FOX or any of the other mainstream media. Get out and enjoy a late Spring day. Whatever the people in "power" will do, they will do. It's likely to have a much bigger impact of Wall Street than in the lives of ordinary citizens, though, if real, could keep the media wheels spinning until the midterms, which, by some accounts, is all that matters inside the Beltway.

If some kind of agreement with Iran isn't undermined by Israel - always a real threat to peace - the economic benefits could prove to be profound, with lower gas prics for U.S. drivers, stability in emerging markets and global trade, and a return to pre-war conditions favorable to growth and prosperity. There might be a chance that President Trump's on-and-off rhetoric and his inner desire to make this year's Independence Day (July 4) celebration one worthy of 250-years of the U.S. republic. Consumer sentiment and national pride can go a long way toward improving conditions for all.

We shall see...

Stocks

Overall, stocks dropped to their lowest levels in a month on Tuesday and recovered on Thursday, extending the rally into Friday's session, though there was less-than-enthusiastic support for the latest messaging that peace in the Middle East was imminent, leaving markets in a weekend conundrum with some kind of resolution expected before markets reopen Monday. Some indication of what may develop for equities on Monday may come from precious metals, which reopen trading on Sunday at 6:00 pm ET, or bitcoin, which trades continuously.

If a deal is struck and announced by te White House as promised, the resultant rally in stocks should exceed the opposite drop in the price of crude oil. Estimates, based on a successful "deal" with language sufficient to ensure follow-through, are for stocks to rise more than two percent through midweek, with cruide oil losing some four to eight dollars per barrel, into a range of $75-80.

On the week, the NYSE Composite (+339.29, +1.46%) and Dow Transports (+683.16, +3.12%) outpaced the three majors, with the NASDAQ the weak horse, up just 0.31% over the past five sessions.

The week ahead features only a few companies reporting first quarter results.

Monday: (before open) Canopy Growth (CGC); (after close) Dave & Buster's (PLAY)

Tuesday: (before open) Wiley (WLY); (after close) LazyBoy (LZB)

Wednesday: (before open) Progressive Insurance (PGR), Jabil Electronics (JBL), Carmax (KMX)

Thursday: (before open) Accenture (ACN), Kroger (KRO)

The big event for the week ahead will be the two-day FOMC meeting, Tuesday and Wednesday, this being the first under newly-appointed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh. Of course, that would take a back seat to any delay in the "peace plan" if not announced Sunday.

Monday offers the NY Fed Manufacturing Index, Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production metrics. Tuesday, monthly building permits and housing starts for May are released prior to the market open. May retail sales come in Wednesday morning, with the Fed's policy statement following at 2:00 pm ET. Thursday gets the usual initial and continuing claims data from the Labor Department and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
05/08/2026	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.69	3.75	3.74	3.75
05/15/2026	3.71	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.76	3.77	3.82
05/22/2026	3.72	3.69	3.69	3.68	3.78	3.79	3.86
05/29/2026	3.72	3.71	3.71	3.69	3.78	3.78	3.79
06/05/2026	3.71	3.71	3.71	3.78	3.78	3.81	3.88
06/12/2026	3.69	3.70	3.70	3.78	3.79	3.82	3.86

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
05/08/2026	3.90	3.92	4.02	4.19	4.38	4.93	4.95
05/15/2026	4.09	4.14	4.26	4.43	4.59	5.14	5.12
05/22/2026	4.13	4.18	4.27	4.41	4.56	5.06	5.07
05/29/2026	3.98	4.06	4.13	4.27	4.45	4.98	4.99
06/05/2026	4.17	4.22	4.29	4.41	4.55	5.03	5.01
06/12/2026	4.09	4.12	4.21	4.34	4.48	4.98	4.97

Treasury yields came off recent highs, but hardly in a convincing manner. The dual lines in the sand - 5.00% for 30-year bonds and $4.50 for 10-year notes were taken out as the peace prospects made their rounds, but debt buyers were apprehensive about going long overall. Spreads continue to remain at high levels across the entire curve, while 2s-10s continue to be restrained.

The treasury curve is orderly overall, though much of its future depends on what comes out of the Fed's FOMC meeting in the week ahead. Keven Warsh was appointed by President Trump to ensure lower rates and easier money, but re-ignition of inflation lately has tamped down expectations and the Fed may indeed signal rate hikes ahead at new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's initial press conference. Bond traders will be on high alert for any tip-offs in either the formal statement or spoken at the presser.

For now, it's a wait-and-see condition.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128

Oil/Gas

WTI crude futures closed out the week at $84.88 on the NY Mercantile Exchange, down sharply from the prior Friday reading of $90.26, in anticipation of some kind of announcement that a deal has been struck between the United States and Iran, ending hostilities in the region. As of Sunday morning, the White House has yet to make a declaration, though one is expected soon.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.11 last week and $4.03 this week, another in a four to five week move lower, with prospects for prices to retrat by as much as another 50-60 cents by mid-summer are enticing.

Reserves have been substantially drained by major economies around the world to keep prices under control. The United States has been purging its strategic oil reserve - the world’s largest emergency crude oil stockpile — and is currently on track to hit its lowest level since the early 1980s. Recent data shows 357.1 million barrels in the week ending May 29, 2026, nearly half of its authorized 714 million barrel capacity and close to the 346.8 million barrel low reached in July 2023.

About eight million barrels were taken last week, following earlier weekly draws of 9–10 million barrels. Total U.S. crude inventories (commercial + SPR) have fallen to 709.8 million barrels, down from 878 million in early April. It has gotten to a point at which oil executives feared inventories were falling to unsustainable levels and further drawdowns could threaten to snd prices spiraling higher. While oil execs are usually in fovar of higher prices for their products, the ongoing situation became precarious with flows shut off completely.

Prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.72 (-0.16)
Washington: $5.51 (-0.11)
Oklahoma: $3.50 (-0.09)
Mississippi: $3.65 (-0.07)
Florida: $3.80 (+0.05)
Illinois: $4.34 (-0.20)
Pennsylvania: $4.20 (-0.12)
New York: $4.34 (-0.09)
Maryland: $3.81 (-0.15)
Michigan: $4.17 (+0.04)
Texas (lowest): $3.47 (-0.11)
Georgia: $3.72 (-0.06)

On Sunday, June 14th, there are twenty-seven (27) states with average prices below $4.00, with 21 above the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.58) and Alaska ($5.14), with just two above $5 (California, Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past four weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging well below $4.00 ($3.47-3.80) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region a close second, prices averaging from $3.71 to $3.90.

Bitcoin

This week: $64,048.96
Last week: $61,809.72
2 weeks ago: $73,835.71
6 months ago: $90,207.59
One year ago: $105,312.90
Five years ago: $35,525.93

Bit of a rebound this week off multi-year lows. Bitcoin hasn't cleared any of the hurdles that would convince investors that the deep slide off the highs from mid-July through mid-October of last year has run its course. With prices depressed since February of this year, below $82,000 at best, the path forward for bitcoin appears to be a continuation of the lowered price structure. The current chart configuration resembles that of late 2021 through all of 2022 and into summer of 2023, when prices collapsed off highs above $64,000 down to lows in the teens.

Bitcoin's fate, largely in the hands of "whales" and institutions like Strategy (MSTR), holding more than 90% of all bitcoin mined. Faith in crypto as an alternative to fiat currencies has faded badly and may become mored in a low price regime for what could turn into years.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 62.03; last week: 63.80

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 5/15: $4,543.60
Gold price 5/22: $4,543.60
Gold price 5/29: $4,569.90
Gold price 6/5: $4,353.90
Gold price 6/12: $4,239.90

Silver price 5/15: $76.29
Silver price 5/22: $75.92
Silver price 5/29: $75.58
Silver price 6/5: $68.00
Silver price 6/12: $68.12

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 5/15: $4,539.72
Gold 5/22: $4,508.74
Gold 5/29: $4,538.94
Gold 6/5: $4,327.57
Gold 6/12: $4,218.23

Silver 5/15: $75.94
Silver: 5/22: $75.48
Silver 5/29: $75.27
Silver 6/5: $67.83
Silver 6/12: $68.00

Silver and gold hit some serious bottoms during the week, but roused to a positive lose on Friday as the rumors of peace with Iran began to circulate. It's not as if opening up the Strait of Hormuz has anything at all with precious metals, the spreading exuberance over ending the conflict in the Middle East seems ot be popping up in unusual places. Perhaps it is more about slowing inflation tied to a more robust flow of oil that made the metals move, but trading from Tuesday through Friday suggested that lows were hunted, found, and satisfied short sellers sufficiently.

Precious metals remain the ultimate safe haven for obvious reasons, though they've been under pressure recently and especially during the Iran conflict, moving lower in contradiction to usual patterns. Gold has, for centuries, been sought as protection during unsure periods, but these days seems to be fractious within fractured markets operating at the derivative level in the West and more in a physical manner in the East. The dichotomy will continue indefinitely, though physical markets are always and everywhere preferred by serious buyers of not just precious metals, but commodities of all sorts. Futures are good enough insurance for food stocks and other commodities which have seasonal variation, but sometimes are seriously out of touch when it comes to more durable things.

One wouldn't go looking for a car based on future prices? Or buy a house based on what it may be worth a few months or years from the present date, would one?

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	75.00	84.00	79.97	80.25
1 oz silver bar:	74.95	88.97	80.49	79.07
1 oz gold coin:	4340.00	4536.36	4445.51	4437.93
1 oz gold bar:	4392.32	4578.29	4430.84	4421.52

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) lost a small amount of ground this week, dropping to $79.95 on June 14, a loss of 33 cents per troy ounce, from the June 7 price of $80.28.

WEEKEND WRAP

"Peace" has different meanings to different groups of people. Perhaps the appropriate definition is contained in this anonymous, brilliant quote: "Peace is that brief glorious moment in history when everybody stands around reloading."

That may be what we have for now. How long it lasts is a function of policy and the will to power of various players in the world of geo-politics. Often attributed as Albert Einstein's definition of insanity - doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results - is also applicable. The insanity of waging war will persist, no matter how long it takes the opposing sides to reload.

Enjoy it while/if you can.

At the Close, Friday, June 12, 2026:
Dow: 51,202.26, +353.51 (+0.70%)
NASDAQ: 25,888.84, +79.18 (+0.31%)
S&P 500: 7,431.46, +37.16 (+0.50%)
NYSE Composite: 23,595.79, +182.90 (+0.78%)

For the Week:
Dow: +355.48 (+0.66%)
NASDAQ: +179.41 (+0.70%)
S&P 500: +47.72 (+0.65%)
NYSE Composite: +339.29 (+1.46%)
Dow Transports: +683.16 (+3.12%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

The Inconvenient Truth: There's Enough Oil for Everybody; SpaceX Blasts Off with Record-Setting IPO

With Friday's focus clearly on Elon Musk's SpaceX IPO, oilprice.com (who wants permissions for every single word they write; a bunch of stubborn weenies in a fluid grown-up world) reports that Brent crude futures traders are shorting crude like the price is headed to $60. These traders have their greasy fingers on the levers of power, political, financial, and societal, and they may be right.

It needs to be understood that prior to the U.S. assault on Iran beginning the last day of February, there was a global glut of oil driving down prices of everything. The abrupt turn in markets on the advent of war naturally set off price hikes. Three months down the road, oil prices, along with gas at the pump, have peaked and retreated from artificial highs. Artificial is the operative word because there has not been a crisis condition and may not be one. Oil inventories were quite high and satisfactory and remained in that state for the duration. Whether or not there's a final resolution to the conflict in the Persian Gulf, the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the end of the Gulf of Oman into the Indian Ocean U.S. blockade, oil continues to flow, though lately only a trickle from the Gulf.

Fact of the matter is that oil isn't as precious a commodity as it used to be. Solar power, especially, has cut into demand for crude, along with other alternative energy sources. The world is changing. China has gone all-in on solar, India following the same path. The U.S., far behind the infrastructure curve by decades due to ignoring infrastructure needs for pretty much the last 40 years is approaching its failure with the usual short-sighted American aplomb. "We have plenty of oil," shouts President Braggart. "We don't need Mideast oil."

While the president may be right about U.S. needs for Gulf oil, the larger issue is technological. The U.S. has been steadily falling behind its peers on innovation as its infrastructure collapses due to neglect, graft, corruption, and plain old ignorance. Blame can be heaped upon the U.S. septuagenarian president, but equal responsibility lies clearly with congress, a do-nothing body whose legislation serves only self-interest and vote-buying. The federal government, top to bottom, is a massive failure yet to be realized. Recognition comes later, after oil matters are settled, after a boost to the economy, after the midterms get stolen by one or another of the two major parties, each working in collusion with the other to keep the corrupt money flowing.

Oil prices have been coming down because there are alternatives that make past comparisons null and void yet remain unmentionable in polite company. While oil companies and their supporters may not like low prices, that's the reality. There's more than enough for everybody if oil production isn't perverted by terrorism, war, mysterious explosions at refineries, and the usual trading games people play. he mainstream media can't cover the story with any sense of trust because they are blind to the truth. The public gets duped, the politicians get rich, the oil companies make profits. That's just the way it goes.

The reality is that owning an electric car, a house heated with natural gas or by electricity, negates the need for crude oil almost completely and nobody wants that information out. People are just supposed to pay more and shut the hell up. It's a pretty slavish relationship that has deeper roots in the debt-based monetary system that is tolerated because change, though often good, is hard.

As far as SpaceX is concerned, The $135/share IPO pricing is likely to result in a big upside as open trading commences because everybody and their brothers and sisters want to be part of Elon Musk's magical path to being the first trillionare. While the company still hasn't generated a profit, it does have potential in building and deploying rockets, satellites, the future of AI, and the well-established Starlink internet connection via LEO (low earth orbit) satellites.

The company may never meet some of the lofty expectations, like establishing a human colony on Mars, but it's likely to be turning a profit in a few years time. It has the backing of some big institutional names and public response is expected to be strong.

Wall Street will pump the stock like its the second coming of Jesus. With the hype machine at full volume, Friday looks to be a glorious return to a profitable week after an unusually bad time the first week in June. Through Thursday's close, the Dow is down, but only by 18 points for the week. The NASDAQ is looking to end up in the black, already up 100 points, and the S&P is up 10 points, conveniently leading into what looks to be a positive finish to a tumultuous week.

Gold and silver have bounced off their lows, with silver trading as high as $68 overnight and gold hitting $4,247 before backing off a bit. Even bitcoin caught a bid as stock futures have ramped higher, though there's still an hour before the open.

This report comes earlier than most Money Daily missives because it's hot, we got up early, and we're all taking the afternoon off. Enjoy the SpaceX show. This is just the premiere. The real business comes later down the road, or, should it be, after escaping gravity?

At the Close, Thursday, June 11, 2026:
Dow: 50,848.75, +929.97 (+1.86%)
NASDAQ: 25,809.66, +640.16 (+2.54%)
S&P 500: 7,394.30, +127.31 (+1.75%)
NYSE Composite: 23,412.90, +332.07 (+1.44%)

May PPI Red Hot, but Investors Focused on Friday's SpaceX (SPCX) IPO; Stocks May Take a Breather from Recent Selling

Depending on the index, for the second or third time in a week, stocks got hammered deeply, though none of the major indices are anywhere near correction territory, leaving hope for a quick rebound.

Equity holders may get a reprieve thanks to resumption of serious military engagements with Iran and President Trump's boasting about sneaking 100 million barrels through the Strait of Hormuz, undetected by Iranian forces. With the ceasefire collapsing rapidly, full-blown war could soon return to the region as the main issues in a number of peace proposals remain unresolved.

After Wednesday's CPI release for May scared off weak hands in the market, this morning's PPI data left futures relatively unscathed.

According to the BLS:

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 1.1 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 1.1 percent in April and 0.7 percent in March. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 6.5 percent for the 12 months ended in May, the largest 12-month rise since moving up 7.4 percent in November 2022.

Nearly 80 percent of the May advance in final demand prices is attributable to a 2.8-percent increase in the index for final demand goods. Prices for final demand services moved up 0.3 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.8 percent in May, the largest advance since increasing 0.9 percent in March 2022. For the 12 months ended in May, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 5.1 percent, the largest 12-month rise since jumping 5.5 percent in October 2022.

Despite the major headline numbers being the worst in roughly four years, stock enthusiasts seem to be ready for some buy-the-dip bottom fishing, profits having been taken and ready for reinvestment.

It's hard ot tell whether the market is serious or this morning's futures are merely a head-fake, with the major indices down 4-6% from recent highs. Considering most of the main issues - Iran, inflation, cost of living - the White House narrative remains positive, and that matters greatly to the sales forces in lower Manhattan.

Overnight, Asian stocks were mixed, but mostly lower. This morning, European bourses are all reporting gains. Stock futures are rising, with Dow futures up 275 points, NASDAQ futures ahead by 240, and S&P futures up 35. Gold and silver remain under pressure, both hitting six to seven month lows. Treasuries remain elevated, with 10-year yields at 4.54% and 30-year yields approaching 5.03%.

It's probably a good bet that stocks will take a little breather from the selling, given they've retreated for most of the last week.

Tomorrow's big event will be the SpaceX (SPCX) IPO, which is expected to price at $135 per share, a price set out by the company's prospectus, which has been making the rounds the past few months. There are certain to be more than a few investors eager to get in on Elon Musk's latest foray into markets.

The IPO is expected to launch Friday with expectations high for upside trading of 20% or more being sought.

At the Close, Wednesday, June 10, 2026:
Dow: 49,918.78, -953.33 (-1.87%)
NASDAQ: 25,169.50, -509.32 (-1.98%)
S&P 500: 7,266.99, -119.66 (-1.62%)
NYSE Composite: 23,080.83, -300.27 (-1.28%)

Is Wall Street Willing to Shrug Off Highest Inflation in Three Years on 'Better than Expected' Basis? Futures, Gold, Silver Rally on May CPI Release

So much for calling the market.

Admittedly, Money Daily was out over its own skis Tuesday, calling for a session of dip-buying. In reality, there was some, but not before the NASDAQ had dropped nearly 1,000 points before 1:00 pm ET. A 700-point rally took all of the afternoon, leaving the index scarred, bruised, but not broken.

The Dow and NYSE Composite ended the session on the upside, and the S&P closed down less than 20 points. The fear factor was strong enough to send some of the usual suspects - Mag7 and chip stocks - down below Friday's closing levels, though the afternoon recovery pushed them back above water. Not everyone is convinced that Friday's episode was the start of something bigger and more calamitous.

Given the market dynamics of tremendous overvalue, disruptions in the oil flow, and the looming prospect of resumption of full-scale warring in the Middle East, somebody is going to be very wrong. Bulls or bears, and maybe both as wild price swings have brought the VIX above 20, a signal for continued volatility.

Adding to the intrigue is Wednesday's release of May CPI, expected to confirm what everybody already knows: prices are higher, inflation has returned, and the cost of living has grown to be too expensive for what used to be a thriving middle class.

There's good reason to believe that the inflation genie has popped back out of her bottle. The Powell Fed didn't do nearly enough to quell inflation tendencies. They hiked the federal funds target rate to 5.50% in July of 2023, kept it there for another 14 months, declared victory and began easing, without ever hitting their desired level of two percent inflation. It was half-assed policy which managed to appease some politicians and bond buyers, but it was nowhere near enough when inflation had peaked above nine percent according to their own sources and was realistically in a range of 15-20% according to analysts like Shadow Stats, who employ more honest gauges than the Fed and the market do.

With all that baggage in tow, the BLS released the May data an hour before the cash open (8:30 am ET). Here's what they reported:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, after rising 0.6 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 4.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for energy rose 3.9 percent in May, after rising 3.8 percent in April and 10.9 percent in March. The energy index accounted for over sixty percent of the monthly all items increase. The index for shelter also increased in May, rising 0.3 percent. The food index increased 0.2 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.1 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.3 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in May. Indexes that increased over the month include communication, airline fares, medical care, personal care, and recreation. Conversely, the indexes for motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings and operations, and new vehicles were among the major indexes that decreased in May.

The all items index rose 4.2 percent for the 12 months ending May, after rising 3.8 percent for the 12 months ending April. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.9 percent over the year, following a 2.8-percent increase over the 12 months ending April. The energy index increased 23.5 percent for the 12 months ending May. The food index increased 3.1 percent over the last year.

Not pulling punches even a little bit, the agency pointed out the 23.5% rise in energy over the past year, most of it occurring in just the past three months. U.S. policy regarding Iran is obviously the leading factor and just how much longer the White House and congress will continue their mad escapade is historically measured in years, not weeks or months. It and the costs of maintaining a threatening posture in Ukraine have become the leading causes of financial pain in America. As they say, "this won't end well."

Wall Street may be grudgingly accepting reality, something they rarely do. The U.S. economy is essentially a basket case, producing little more than sketchy narratives, political corruption, and consumer inflation. That doesn't really sound like a winning formula.

Logic would dictate an end to the blooming of new highs on the stock market, but Wall Street doesn't trade in logic; its levers are more emotional in nature. If fear of losses replaces the greed instinct (FOMO) to a generous degree, the cascading waterfall effect could become devastating to investors of all stripes, from billionaire hedge fund bosses to the slave laborer hoping for gains in their retirement account or 401k. As somebody in the newspaper business once quipped: "Retirement? Most of our reporters die right at their desks."

Americans have tied their fates to the Wall Street grinder and Washington's nanny state policies. They ar beginning to see the results and they're not happy. A stock market crash or considerable downturn may be more suffering than the people are willing to endure.

As widely expected, stock futures took the BLS data and turned the worst inflation reading in three years into a positive, citing the usual “Beat Expectations" meme. Dow and NASDAQ futures were each down more than 500 points before the release. Afterwards, a spike higher lopped off more than 250 of the losses.

None of this has been very good for precious metals, as both gold and silver have slipped into bear market conditions. There is joyous celebration at the LBMA and COMEX futures circles. However, both metals turned higher on the CPI release.

Comment of the day: “Here’s your plate of crap. Go buy yourself a plastic fork.”

At the Close, Tuesday, June 9, 2026:
Dow: 50,872.11, +86.10 (+0.17%)
NASDAQ: 25,678.82, -250.84 (-0.97%)
S&P 500: 7,386.65, -19.08 (-0.26%)
NYSE Composite: 23,381.09, +156.89 (+0.68%)

Buying the Dip is Tuesday's Main Theme; Stock Enthusiasts Undeterred After Friday's Leg Lower; Investors Weigh Asset Class Options

Monday's dead cat bounce didn't amount to much in terms of recovery on the NASDAQ and S&P following Friday's selloff.

The S&P recovered just more than 10% of Friday's losses, while the NASDAQ grabbed back about 20%. Since Friday's selling was, by and large, profit-taking rather than a mass fear episode, the market will likely recover on a more gradual basis, as opposed to the rapid rise of the prior few months.

While there are a number of negatives overhanging the market as a whole, Wall Street is quite adept at sidestepping or ignoring anything that stands in the way of greater and greater highs. It's been a little more than two months since the most recent correction, when the NASDAQ fell about 13% and the S&P lost nearly 10% between te end of January and the end of March, implying that another downturn is not likely to occur, even though valuations remain historically high, screaming, "sell me."

Nobody is listening, however. At this time last year, the Naz and S&P were already seeking a path higher, recovering from the tariff trauma in April. They would both eventually peak near the end of October. Over that period, the NASDAQ put on gains of over 40% while the S&P added an impressive 30%. Given the timeline of roughly nine months to a year between severe dips, Friday's one-day smackdown appears to be nothing of consequence near term. Get ready for short sellers to get sandbagged again.

Dispensing with the fear associated with large single day events, stocks, especially the chip sector which suffered the most damage last week, are poised to make up for lost time, with institutions remaining tied to momentum stocks. The public is probably going to join in on the dip-buying, sensing opportunity.

As Tuesday's open approaches, futures are talking a good game, with Dow futures ahead by 130 points, NASDAQ futures up more than 200, and S&P futures up nearly 30 points an hour prior to the bell.

Tuesday may come off as a good day to initiate positions, as everything will appear to lean positively. Wednesday and Thursday may see some turbulence with the release of May CPI and PPI, respectively. However, as is often the case, the market may take elevated inflation levels without nuance, especially if those readings are better than expected, meaning, they still stink, but not as badly as analysts had assumed. Of course, it's rubbish, but may provide enough of a practical narrative to keep stocks above water and end the week with gains.

It's not that markets are rigged to go ever higher, but the objective of Wall Street has always been to promote wealth accumulation via higher prices. Indeed, if inflation is truly an issue, it is almost certain to redound to stocks first.

On the fixed income side, Friday's slide may be said to have done more damage to the treasury market than it did to stocks as the yield on 10-year notes zoomed past 4.50% and the 30-year yield regained 5.00%. Heading into Tuesday's open, the 10-year is at 4.54% and the 30-year, 5.02%. The persistent theme of rising inflation is sending treasuries into empty space on the high side of the yield curve. With the Fed poised to begin hiking rates at some time in the near future to counteract inflation (though not at next week's meeting), the treasury market won't react until newly-installed Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, opens his mouth at the press conference podium. CME's FedWatch tool has the odds of no rate change to the Federal Funds Target Rate (3.50-3.75%) at 98.2%, the assumption being that Warsh will be moderately hawkish and may actually send a signal for rate hikes beginning in July. For now, it's a wait-and-see condition.

None of this is very good for precious metals. If interest rates are going to yield 3.75-5.25%, depending on maturity, holding PMs, which pay no dividend, doesn't seem to be very appealing. On the other hand, if stocks are going to waver a bit here and there and interest rates aren't going to be very much higher near term, appreciation in gold and silver may not look so bad. A return of anywhere from 5-25% over the next six months could come to fruition, especially since the metals have been beaten down pretty hard recently. Investors surely have options available to them in various asset classes.

Discounting every negative thing, equity managers don't appear to be fazed by Friday's pounding. They have very short memories, a credit to their brood.

At the Close, Monday, June 8, 2026:
Dow: 50,786.01, -80.79 (-0.16%)
NASDAQ: 25,929.66, +220.26 (+0.86%)
S&P 500: 7,405.73, +21.99 (+0.30%)
NYSE Composite: 23,224.20, -32.30 (-0.14%)