Intel and Amazon Earnings Reports Send Shock Waves Through Tech Sector as Midterm Narrative Begins to Crumble and Bubbles Pop

On Thursday, it was Google (Alphabet, GOOGL) dragging down the NASDAQ, sending a stern warning to the rest of the market that stock prices have been and continue to be extraordinarily overpriced and a reckoning with value was on the way.

Sentiment on Wall Street - not contained to only AI hyperscalers and chip-makers - has turned downright ugly late Thursday into Friday morning after Amazon (AMZN) and Intel (INTC) reported third quarter earnings results after the bell.

Amazon reported third-quarter revenue of $201.9 billion and GAAP EPS of $1.89, both below Wall Street consensus estimates. Massive infrastructure investments on AI buildout have weighed heavily on the company's liquidity, resulting in a reported quarterly negative free cash flow outflow of approximately $42.4 billion. The company reiterated its 2026 commitment of $220 billion to support AI data centers. Investors were not at all humored, sending shares down initially b more than 10%. In Friday's pre-market trade, Amazon is down between six and seven percent.

Intel absolutely floored the street, delivering adjusted non-GAAP earnings of $0.52 per share, easily surpassing Wall Street expectations around $0.40 per share, but future guidance projected revenue between $15.0 billion and $16.0 billion, well below the $17.08 billion expected. Projected adjusted EPS of $0.25 also severely missed consensus estimates of roughly $0.44, citing continued weakness in the personal computer market, where Intel chips are pre-eminent. Heading toward Friday's opening bell, shares of the chip-maker are down 25%.

As a reminder of the evils of fascism afoot:

In August 2025, the U.S. federal government became Intel’s largest single shareholder by purchasing 433.3 million newly issued shares at $20.47 per share, representing a 9.9% ownership of the company.

How's that working out for taxpayers who never had a say in that deal? Just wonderful. America deserves to own 10% of more shitty companies that are overburdened with debt and about to go bankrupt. It's a good thing the government bought into this failing enterprise near the multi-year lows and drove the stock to unsustainable and simply irrational highs earlier this year. The speculators who drove the price have likely already cashed in the chips (pun intended) and moved on to greener pasture. The government will be stuck with a company worth less than $15 per share by the end of 2027, if not sooner. The collapse of this and other tech companies is already well underway and gaining momentum.

Other companies reporting after the close Thursday include:
Reddit (RDDT) - Top and bottom beats, but CEO Steve Huffman said search traffic declined by more than 1 million referrals on average per week during October, sending shares down 20% pre-market
Twillio (TWLO) - EPS, revenue beats, stock down nearly 20% on valuation concerns
Rivian (RIVN) - Solid EPS and revenue sends e-vehicle maker up 6% (adjusted loss of 48 cents)
Starbucks (SBUX) - EPS beat, revenue in-line, stock is flat pre-market
Sandisk (SNDK) - Beats top and bottom, announces 8-for-1 stock split, shares down 8% on valuation, future guidance concerns
Roblox (RBLX) - EPS -0.32 send stock down 17%

Friday morning, before open:
Regeneron (REGN) - EPS, revenue beats, shares up 8%
AutoNation (AN) - EPS, revenue mostly in-line, shares up 2-3%
AstraZeneca (AZN) - Beat top and bottom, shares higher by 4%
General Dynamics (GD) - reports at 9:00 am ET, shares up 3% pre-market
British Petroleum (BP) - EPS, revenue beats, stock flat
ExxonMobil (XOM) - EPS, revenue beats, shares up 2%
Chevron (CVX) - EPS, revenue beats, shares up 1-2%

Clearly, tech wreckage is widespread and probably just getting started. The AI buildout bubble, to which Mag7 and other companies have devoted hundreds of billions in Capex, is being popped. The timing could not be worse for Republicans seeking to hold majorities in the House and Senate on eelction day next Tuesday (Nov. 3). Not surprisingly, three big oil companies - ExxonMobil, Chevron, and British Petroleum - all posted positive results and solid profits, thanks to oil and gas prices that are up 60-80% over the past year. The squeeze on working class and small business is like a wrecking ball to the economy, pinching margins for small businesses while crimping the spending patterns by consumers. Higher gas and food prices are crowding out spending in other categories, particularly in discretionary sectors.

There's no limit to the degree of carnage that will come from the tech bust and misguided government policies that are sending ordinary Americans deeper into debt and straining household budgets. The hubris of government and big tech is that they've ignored the obvious calculus: without consumer spending, which is 60-70% of the economy, their revenue and profits will suffer. For the government, tax receipts have nearly doubled since 2020, but expenditures have grown at a faster rate, including interest on the debt, which has exploded to a level approaching an insolvent condition.

Wall Street and the government's continued propping up of businesses that are either failing or extremely overvalued has created an unstable, treacherous environment and considerable cracks in the facade are beginning to show.

For the week, through Thursday's close, the Dow is up 147 points, the NASDAQ is up 229, and the S&P is ahead by 96 points, but those gains may be lost as the last trading day of October commences. Stock futures have the Dow up 20 points, the S&P down 80, and the NASDAQ showing a massive decline of more than 700 points.

What goes up, often comes down. Reversion to the mean can be an unpleasant trip.

At the Close, Thursday, October 29, 2026:
Dow: 52,342.56, -132.54 (-0.25%)
NASDAQ: 26,184.73, -365.13 (-1.38%)
S&P 500: 7,720.39, -23.59 (-0.30%)
NYSE Composite: 24,517.23, +255.95 (+1.05%)

Alphabet Shows AI Striking Against Core Ad Revenue; GDP Up 3.4% in 3rd Quarter; PCE Index Hits 3.6%, Fueling Inflation and Rate Hike Expectations

With the Federal Reserve's FOMC deciding to keep the federal funds target interest rate at 3.75-4.00% on Wednesday, stocks traders took the non-event in stride, with stocks barely budging from levels seen before the 2:00 pm ET announcement.

With the market turning in another in a series of lackluster sessions, the real excitement of the day was reserved for after the close, when two Mag7 heavyweights - Alphabet and Microsoft - released third quarter results.

The results could not have been more starkly different.

Alphabet (GOOGL), parent company of Google, saw its stock slip more than 11% in post-market trading after the company missed targets on its key advertising segment as use of AI began to eat away at search and ad revenue. The reaction swift and pointed. Google's Adsense and Adwords products form the basis for the company's revenue and AI - promoted by Google itself - threatens to kill the golden-egg-laying goose.

Microsoft (MSFT) reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $92.28 billion, up 19% year over year, beating Wall Street’s $90.62 billion consensus. Adjusted earnings reached $4.89 per share, excluding gains from OpenAI investments, compared with expectations of $4.71, according to Microsoft’s earnings release. Revenue from Azure, the company's AI tool, grew 48% year-over-year, surpassing estimates. Shares of Microsoft are up by 1-2% in pre-market trading.

As the opening bell for Thursday's session approached, the BEA released its first estimate of third quarter GDP, posting an increase of 3.4%, topping consensus estimates for 3.2%. Second quarter GDP was revised higher, from 1.5% to 2.2%. The numbers confirm the general economy is strong and gaining momentum, led by consumer spending and business investment and inventories.

While the GDP numbers are generally positive, the market saw it in a different way. a fast-paced economy is being interpreted as giving the Fed further rationale to hike rates at the December 7-8 FOMC meeting, just six weeks ahead. Google's results also shook the tech sector, sending NASDAQ futures down close to 400 points. With less than an hour to the opening bell, Dow futures are off 140 points and S&P futures are down 32.

Other companies reporting Wednesday after the close included:
Carvana (CVNA) - despite an EPS miss, a beat on revenue has shares higher by 9%
FedEx (FDX) - EPS miss, revenue beat, stock down 1%
T-Mobile (TMUS) - top and bottom beats, stock up 3%
Chipolte Mexican Grill (CMG) - EPS miss, revenue beat, shares higher by 8%

Thursday, before the open:
Caterpillar (CAT) - Dow component beat top and bottom, but tariff costs and rising inventories are sending shares down 12%
Carrier (CARR) - EPS, revenue beats, poor outlook, shares down 7%
Eli Lilly (LLY) - solid EPS, revenue beats, shares 4% higher
L3 Harris (LHX) - EPS, revenue beats, stock flat
Vulcan Materials (VMC) - EPS baat, revenue miss, stock down 2%

After the close Thursday, Amazon (AMZN), Intel (INTC), Reddit (RDDT), Twillo (TWLO), Rivian (RIVN), Starbucks (SBUX), Sandisk (SNDK), and Roblox (RBLX) will report third quarter results.

Rounding out the pre-market headlines, the PCE Index rose 0.5% for the month, pulling the price index up 3.6% year-over-year, adding more fuel to the growing inflation fire.

All indications are that Thursday is going to be a very bumpy, volatile session, with sentiment turning downright negative on AI spending, inflation, and the dual wars in Ukraine and Iran. This is not the narrative the Republican party envisaged.

At the Close, Wednesday, October 28, 2026:
Dow: 52,475.10, +97.53 (+0.19%)
NASDAQ: 26,549.85, +72.04 (+0.27%)
S&P 500: 7,743.98, +21.38 (+0.28%)
NYSE Composite: 24,261.28, +50.60 (+0.21%)

Stocks and Commodities on Hold in Advance of FOMC Rate Decision; Chip Stocks Boosted by SK Hynix; Fed's Bind Deepens on Strong Durables

With the FOMC interest rate policy decision due at 2:00 pm ET Wednesday, more companies reported third quarter earnings results after the close on Tuesday, including:

SK Hynix (SKHY) - Record earnings, revenue beat send Korean chip-maker up 7-8% pre-market
Visa (V) - EPS, revenue beats, shares down 1-2%
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) - EPS, revenue beats, shares down 2-3%
Robinhood (HOOD) - Top and bottom miss, stock down 7%
Seagate (STX) - EPS, revenue beats, shares down 2.5%
Waste Management (WM) - EPS miss, revenue beat, stock lower by 4%

Prior to Wednesday's opening bell:
Boston Scientific (BSX) - EPS in-line, revenue beat, stock falls 13% on negative forecast
UBS (UBS) - EPS miss sends shares down 1%
ADP (ADP) - EPS beat, revenue in-line, shares down 3%
GE Vernova (GEV) - solid EPS beat, revenue beat, shares flat
International Paper (IP) - EPS beat, revenue miss, shares down 4%
Phillips 66 (PSX) - EPS, revenue beats, shares flat pre-open

Overnight and early morning results, outside of SK Hynix, were nothing special and investors are taking a cautious stance. As for the chip sector, the results by SKHY served to reinforce the outlook for AI buildout and will likely send the sector higher after the opening bell. The concern among investors is that the sector is already over-priced and more evidence of profitability is needed downstream, which may produce a stall out in Mag7 and other AI--related issues.

Durable goods orders for September, announced Tuesday, rose 1.8% during the month, exceeding economists' expectations for a 1.4% increase. The September advance followed a revised 0.1% rise in August. The previous month's figure had initially been reported as a 0.1% decline. Transportation led the advance, but overall, the continued rise in durable goods orders - especially at the consumer level - is a strong indicator of inflationary pressures. In hyper-inflation environments, such as Germany in the 1920s and Argentina in the 1990s, consumers bought durables such as refrigerators and cars even if they didn't need them, in hopes of purchasing at prices lower than in the future. In some instances, holding durables was far better than hoarding cash, as the currency was rapidly losing purchasing power, making large kitchen appliances, furniture, and autos almost a shadow currency that was appreciating against official government-issuance.

This is a trend that economists at the Fed will certainly be tracking. Continued upside price pressure only exacerbates inflationary tendencies and future outlooks. Even more troubling is that these purchases - as just about everything in the U.S. is today - are financed at high interest rates. Higher financing costs to consumers and government, which has to roll over debt constantly, puts a squeeze on the general economy. With more money tied up in financing, there's less room for overall growth, a paradox that has the Fed somewhat trapped. Since interest rate hikes serve to slow the economy, they are most effective on the supply side. Demand for durable goods and other essential purchases is less elastic, leaving the Fed in a bind. Raising rates may slow upside pricing, but, if demand for goods and services remains constant or increases, the net result is negligible.

It may be worth noting if Chairman Warsh mentions pricing pressure as a key element at today's press conference. With expectations for rates to stay on hold until the December meeting, pricing power in the hands of producers may be a considerable concern for which the Fed may not have ample tools to contain. The fear is that the Fed goes deeper into rate hiking policy in December, possibly pushing the federal funds rate up by 0.50% (50 basis points) rather than the traditional 0.25%.

With equity markets due to open in roughly half an hour, stock futures are mixed and moderating, with Dow futures off 100 points, NASDAQ futures off the highs of the morning but still ahead 95 points, and S&P futures up just nine points. Crude oil, gold, and silver remain in holding patterns, a likely posture until the midterms at least. WTI crude oil futures are posting a price above $101/barrel, with gold shading $4,000 and silver holding around $54 per ounce. There doesn't appear to be any catalyst to change pricing structure in these commodities and a rate hold by the FOMC will not change that outlook.

Interest rates have flattened out as well, with yield on the 10-year note knocked down to around an even 5.00% and the 30-year yield at 5.30%, both considerably lower than they were just two and three weeks ago.

Unless Chairman Warsh trips over his prepared remarks at today's 2:30 pm ET press conference, there's little to indicate anything substantial developing in the aftermath. The key event is clearly now the midterms. With Election Day and the actual results unavailable until late Tuesday night (November 3), any big, directional moves in stocks, rates, and commodities won't likely occur until Wednesday, November 4.

The current condition of market sentiment is an uncertain one and there is the potential for some swing to the downside regardless of today's FOMC decision. Warsh's press conference will be more of a focus, but the fledgling Chairman has shown considerable restraint in terms of "spilling the beans." Wall Street sharpies may take off with their own interpretation of what's said by Warsh, though their analysis is likely to be misleading. Still, the pundits and talking heads in the financial and mainstream media may not be able to constrain themselves from putting words in the Chairman's mouth.

If anything, stocks may exhibit downside pressure. That's already the case in terms of reactions to earnings. Stocks have gone nowhere in the 2+ weeks since earnings began to hit the tape (October 12), with the Dow up roughly one percent, the S&P down one percent and the NASDAQ lower by just under three percent.

At the Close, Tuesday, October 27, 2026:
Dow: 52,377.57, +15.99 (+0.03%)
NASDAQ: 26,477.81, +308.43 (+1.18%)
S&P 500: 7,722.60, +45.83 (+0.60%)
NYSE Composite: 24,210.68, +23.82 (+0.10%)

Lula's Victory, Bolsonaro's Defeat in Brazil Signals Havoc in Markets and Beyond; Stocks Trending Higher; Gold, Silver Remain Under Pressure

"This is a sign that our democracy has failed..."

Those were the words of Flávio Bolsonaro after police had seized his passport and barred him from leaving the country on the orders of Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Bolsonaro, son of former Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro, who is under house arrest, lost the election Monday to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who was elected to a fourth term.

Aside from the absurdity of barring a presidential candidate from leaving the country, the election was marred by unsual events, including a last-minute order to extend voting hours in a number of key districts. The election was held Sunday, and on Monday, the Brazilian stock exchange, the Ibovesta, crashed 20%, triggering a circuit breaker that halted trading. The Brazilian currency, the real, also lost more than 10% against the U.S. dollar.

It's become evident that whoever is lurking in the shadows or behind the curtains has eschewed any pretense that elections are fair and the results represent the will of the people. Bolsonaro's defeat, after winning the primary round two weeks ago, makes it plain to see that elections anywhere in the world cannot be trusted and have likely become more of a stage show than an actual tally of voting preferences. With the U.S. midterms now a week away and with early voting already having been underway for days or weeks in some states, the probability of getting honest results in House and Senate racs across the country is rapidly approaching zero.

No matter which "side" wins and takes a majority in either or both chambers, the message is clear: voting no longer matters in so-called democracies. The winners take office and do as they please, most often doing the will of special interests and large money donors rather than representing the wishes of their voting constituents.

Western society has reached the precipice of correctness versus corruption and Brazil's results may just have pushed the limits of partisan politics over the proverbial edge. Nothing, from equity markets to laws on the books, can be trusted to carry on in an orderly, lawful fashion. The power behind the scenes, the "deep state" if you please, is in complete control. Short of abandoning one's rights or citizenship, there's little any individual can do to restrain the energies pulling Western societies into a swirling abyss.

As far as financial matters are concerned, it's becoming more and more difficult to report on market events without a tinge of skepticism and irony. Corporate books get cooked on a regular basis. Powerful monetary forces regularly influence entire markets and the government's own operations, led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, often appear to be more akin to gangsterism than to orderly fiscal activity.

What happens in Brazil, France, the UK, and elsewhere does not occur in a vacuum. The effects of elections, protests, and riots are far-reaching. America is not isolated from events in other countries and is likely being led down the same path by the same powers directing the narrative elsewhere. It's truly a sad state of affairs, and it's global in nature. It's neither left or right, but rather an amalgamation of back-room, hidden powerful entities directing operatives to subvert the general well-being. It is the new reality of total control.

For what it's worth, stocks took the usual path of least resistance, higher on Monday, ignorant to any disruptions from outside events, giddy over Anthropic's official filing for its IPO, with its S-1 filing with the SEC.

Verizon (VZ) posted better-than-expected third-quarter earnings and raised its guidance prior to the open on Monday, giving the telecom sector some positive news, but sending the cellular carrier down nearly three percent on the day.

After the close Monday, these companies posted third quarter results:
Nucor (NUE) - EPS, revenue beats, shares flat pre-market
Whirlpool (WHR) - Huge EPS, revenue misses, shares off 6-7%
The Hartford (HIG) - EPS beat, revenue miss, stock flat
Rambus (RMBS) - Top and bottom beats, shares higher by 2%
Cadence (CDNS) - EPS, revenue beats, stock up 1%

Tuesday, before the open:
Coca-Cola (KO) - EPS, revenue beats, stock down 2%
Corning (GLW) - EPS, revenue beats, shares flat
PayPal (PYPL) - earnings beat, revenue miss, stock down 1.5%
UPS (UPS) - EPS, revenue beats, stock lower by 2%
SoFi (SOFI) - top and bottom beat, stock soaring more than 10% pre-market
Freeport McMoRan (FCX) - EPS, revenue beats, stock up 1%

Gold and silver remain under pressure, with gold flirting with $4,000 per ounce and silver at bargain basement prices below $54.

Stock futures are trending higher prior to the opening bell. Making maket moves before the midterms remains a risky enterprise, though the market appears oblivious to any danger.

At the Close, Monday, October 26, 2026:
Dow: 52,361.58, +146.42 (+0.28%)
NASDAQ: 26,169.38, +214.04 (+0.82%)
S&P 500: 7,676.77, +53.09 (+0.70%)
NYSE Composite: 24,186.86, +69.59 (+0.29%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Market Nerves Frayed as Midterms Approach; Oil Spikes Higher; Gold, Silver Wrecked, Prompting Central Bank Buying Pressure

“The government you elect is the government you deserve.”

― Thomas Jefferson

Jefferson saw the problems of a democratically-elected government well before they became apparent in American society. The question in the present time is whether or not Americans actually elect a government that is deserving of its posture atop the political system. The entrenched two-party system virtually guarantees that Americans are not well-represented, the nature of politics ensuring that special interests and large money donors have better access and representation than individual constituents.

Thus, with the midterm elections a mere 10 days forward, the prospects of newly-minted congressmen and women actually serving the will of the great unwashed public remains largely in doubt. Decades of apathy, ignoring a corrupt system, has brought about a congress that does little to provide for the general welfare and presidents who go their own ways and rule by edicts of executive orders, which are neither laws nor enforceable, yet the public plays along as best it can, all the time failing to notice how far their republic has strayed from its original intentions.

In a matter of days, the congressional rotation will be finalized, new members seated in early January. After the votes are counted and before new representatives and senators are seated, the government will operate as a lame duck legislature. Nothing will change. No new laws will be enacted. America will have shortchanged itself again with two months of wrangling on Capitol Hill over leadership, chairmanships, and agendas. There will be two months of turmoil before full-blown chaos come January.

Markets, especially the equity ones, will continue to spin and churn without direction. Two events will determine the future for stocks and the general economy: the FOMC rate policy decision on Wednesday, October 28 and the election results on the evening of November 3rd.

Presently, the FOMC decision appears to favor a draw, with the fderal funds target rate stuck at 3.75-4.00% and the CME Fedwatch Tool showing a 90% majority predicting no change. The elections across the country - if polls are to be believed - favors the House flipping to Democrat party control and the Senate in a virtual deadlock once all the votes are counted and verified.

The issue for investors is whether these events will produce markets that are more of the same, or whether they will spin to the upside or lower. This kind of uncertainty is what has kept stocks from making decisive moves in either direction over the past few months.

Time is running short on the drama in Washington. Many will just be glad that it’s over... for another couple of years.

Stocks

The main indices split for the week, with concerns over AI buildout and Capex costs driving the S&P and NASDAQ lower, while fear and safety concerns drove investors to dividend-producing stocks on the Dow. Next week could see the reverse, but it bears notice that each of the major indices - the Dow Industrials, S&P, NASDAQ, NYSE Composite, and Dow Transports - closed out the week below their respective 50-day moving averages, such a position either a portent of what's to follow in weeks and months ahead or a general statement of investor indecision. In either case, it's a negative on market sentiment, which seems to be continuing momentum toward a reality shock. Whether such an event actually is realized has much to do with current events rather than profits and earnings.

Speaking of earnings, the trend has been mostly distressing. Many companies are reporting beats against EPS estimates while falling short on revenues, a trend that indicates a spending downturn, the main culprit being inflation, i.e., high prices on producer and consumer prices, borne out by the September CPI and PPI readings and the structure in oil futures and gas at the pump.

The week ahead is one of the two biggest in terms of volume of companies reporting third quarter results. Here's a partial list of heavy hitters making the rounds in the week ahead, including some Mag7 stocks and Dow components:

Monday (before open): Cemex (CX), Verizon (VZ); (after close) Nucor (NUE), Whirlpool (WHR), The Hartford (HIG), Rambus (RMBS), Cadence (CDNS)

Tuesday (before open): Coca-Cola (KO), Corning (GLW), PayPal (PYPL), UPS (UPS), SoFi (SOFI), Freeport McMoRan (FCX), Canon (CAJPY); (after close) SK Hynix (SKHY), Visa (V), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Robinhood (HOOD), Seagate (STX), Waste Management (WM)

Wednesday (before open): Boston Scientific (BSX), UBS (UBS), ADP (ADP), GE Vernova (GEV), International Paper (IP), Phillips Petroeum (PSX); (after close): Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Carvana (CVNA), FedEx (FDX), T-Mobile (TMUS), Chipolte Mexican Grill (CMG)

Thursday, (before open): Caterpillar (CAT), Carrier (CARR), Eli Lilly (LLY), L3 Harris (LHX), Vulcan Materials (VMC); (after close): Amazon (AMZN), Intel (INTC), Reddit (RDDT), Twillo (TWLO), Rivian (RIVN), Starbucks (SBUX), Sandisk (SNDK), Roblox (RBLX)

Friday, (before open): Regeneron (REGN), AutoNation (AN), AstraZeneca (AZN), General Dynamics (GD), British Petroleum (BP), ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX)

On the economic front, the market get recent economic information from the Chicago and Dallas Fed on Monday. Tuesday, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is released along with New Home Sales and a report from the Richmond Fed. The FOMC meeting concludes Wednesday with the policy announcement at 2:00 pm ET. Thursday, the PCE Index for September is released and the first reading on third quarter GDP.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
09/18/2026	3.97	3.98	4.10	4.14	4.24	4.24	4.44
09/25/2026	4.04	4.14	4.20	4.24	4.32	4.33	4.50
10/02/2026	4.04	4.09	4.11	4.19	4.26	4.27	4.46
10/09/2026	4.13	4.13	4.13	4.25	4.29	4.32	4.47
10/16/2026	4.12	4.14	4.17	4.26	4.32	4.34	4.46
10/23/2026	4.11	4.11	4.16	4.22	4.30	4.30	4.44

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
09/18/2026	4.76	4.83	4.86	4.93	5.01	5.38	5.34
09/25/2026	4.81	4.94	4.98	5.06	5.17	5.54	5.49
10/02/2026	4.83	4.96	5.06	5.17	5.28	5.67	5.63
10/09/2026	4.80	4.89	5.02	5.13	5.24	5.65	5.60
10/16/2026	4.74	4.82	4.89	4.98	5.09	5.47	5.43
10/23/2026	4.69	4.75	4.82	4.89	5.00	5.37	5.33

Yields dropped off during the week, but ended only slightly lower than the previous Friday, with the 10-year note yielding 5.00% and the 30-year dropping ten basis points to 5.33%, levels of comfort for investors piling out of stocks late in the week.

Notes and bonds have bounced around significantly during the past month, driven by war and inflation. The 30-year yield is now 0.30% lower than on October 2nd; the 10-year yield is off 28 basis points.

The FOMC meets this week - Tuesday and Wednesday - and unless Chairman Warsh decides to stun the market (and the president), rates will stay on hold at the current 3.75-4.00% level. As for the politics of the interest rate condition, it seems to be close to a 'Mission Accomplished" moment for the Republicans, keeping rates from screaming higher amid economic turmoil and the fog of war.

2s-10s spreads narrowed to +31. The full spectrum, 30-days to 30-years spread dropped nine basis points to a reasonable +122.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37
7/24: +36
7/31: +47
8/7: +46
8/14: +51
8/21: +50
8/28: +39
9/4: +41
9/11: +33
9/18: +25
9/25: +36
10/2: +45
10/9: +44
10/16: +35
10/23: +31

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133
7/24: +136
7/31: +149
8/7: +140
8/14: +146
8/21: +147
8/28: +138
9/4: +145
9/11: +142
9/18: +137
9/25: +145
10/2: +159
10/9: +147
10/16: +131
10/23: +122

Oil/Gas

Oil prices spiked higher again as Mideast kinesis continued to escalate. Brent closed out the week above $115/barrel and WTI crude futures at $103.27. The Trump administration's attempts at controlling the price of oil and gas at the pump have met with disaster. A majority of Americans are unhappy about Trump's handling of both the Ukraine and Iran conflicts and the high prices of fuel and food.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.27 last week and $4.28 this week, though this brief respite is unlikely to last, given the higher price of crude. Gas at the pump has been - by whatever means - generally lower the past three weeks despite the rising price of crude oil. Fishy, to say the least, and likely politically-motivated, with the lowest prices in Republican strongholds or states they'd like to win (Texas, North Carolina), with price increases in Democrat-controlled states (Michigan, Illinois, Indiana).

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $6.00 (-0.15)
Washington: $5.28 (-0.09)
Indiana: $3.99 (+0.14)
Oklahoma: $3.84 (-0.04)
Louisiana: $3.73 (-0.09)
Mississippi: $3.77 (-0.08)
Florida: $4.09 (+0.02)
Illinois: $4.89 (+0.22)
Pennsylvania: $4.43 (-0.04)
New York: $4.34 (-0.04)
Maryland: $3.96 (-0.14)
Michigan: $4.80 (+0.33)
Texas: $3.68 (-0.06)
Georgia: $3.61 (-0.07)
North Carolina $3.46 (lowest) (-0.14)

On Sunday, October 25, there are thirty-three (33) states with average prices at or above $4.00, with fifteen (15) below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.63) and Alaska ($4.79), with three above $5 (California, Nevada, and Washington) and one, California, right at $6.00. The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past 17 weeks, with prices generally below $4.00 ($3.46-3.85) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region second, prices slightly higher, from $3.92 to $4.20. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest.

Northeast states, north of Delaware and Maryland all the way to Maine, continue to average well above $4.00.

Bitcoin

This week: $80,529.22
Last week: $81,297.99
2 weeks ago: $82,717.91
6 months ago: $75,939.33
One year ago: $111,284.20
Five years ago: $61,855.90

Crypto still resembles a fantasy video game played by idiots and children, with bitcoin acting as some kind of magical king with special powers. It's all still speculative junk, up 30% from five years out and down 28% from a year ago.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 74.25 last week: 73.22;

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 9/25: $4,320.50
Gold price 10/2: $4,172.10
Gold price 10/9: $4,220.30
Gold price 10/16: $4,186.70
Gold price 10/23: $4,010.00

Silver price 9/25: $64.71
Silver price 10/2: $60.71
Silver price 10/9: $61.11
Silver price 10/16: $57.13
Silver price 10/23: $53.96

SPOT: (Kitco)
Gold 9/25: $4,283.78
Gold 10/2: $4,141.90
Gold 10/9: $4,193.60
Gold 10/16: $4,164.10
Gold 10/23: $3,994.90

Silver 9/25: $64.28
Silver 10/2: $60.39
Silver 10/9: $60.70
Silver 10/16: $56.87
Silver 10/23: $53.80

Until the midterms are over at the least and the December 9 FOMC policy rate decision is concluded, gold and silver will likely remain under pressure, a condition that could worsen if the Fed decides to hike rates again in the mistaken belief that yields on fixed income vehicles are preferable against the non-interest-bearing precious metals. The fallacy of the argument comes from inflation, which degrades the purchasing power of currencies. In real terms, gold and silver beat inflation at every turn, no matter the temporary price.

Presently, central banks, especially China, Russia, and other Eastern entities, are more than pleased with the recent price downturn in gold, allowing them to ramp up their reserves at bargain-basement prices. Silver remains the ugly child, though individual stackers are stocking up, with the gold:silver ratio approaching 75.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	60.00	75.00	65.22	64.81
1 oz silver bar:	62.08	72.00	66.88	67.26
1 oz gold coin:	4131.70	4366.33	4235.07	4215.47
1 oz gold bar:	4167.28	4268.36	4208.66	4209.29

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell again during the week, dropping to $66.04, a loss of $1.96 per troy ounce from the October 18 price of $68.00.

WEEKEND WRAP

The latter part of the week witnessed a massive flight to safety, as the tech sector continued to implode and money flowed into treasuries and corporate debt issuance. As the midterms approach and afterwards, there may be just plain flight out of stocks and a huge downturn depending on how the market interprets election results. Even if Republicans - by some uncanny stroke of luck or other means - manage to hold a majority in the House and/or Senate, market reaction could accelerate in a downward direction.

At the Close, Friday, October 23, 2026:
Dow: 52,215.16, -652.82 (-1.23%)
NASDAQ: 25,955.34, -53.52 (-0.21%)
S&P 500: 7,623.68, -39.75 (-0.52%)
NYSE Composite: 24,117.27, -158.26 (-0.65%)

For the Week:
Dow: +212.75 (+0.41%)
NASDAQ: -184.69 (-0.71%)
S&P 500: -35.76 (-0.47%)
NYSE Composite: +28.68 (+0.12%)
Dow Transports: +162.08 (+0.82%)

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