There are only eight more trading days until Christmas and 12 more for the year.
Given that NFL football and shopping take precedence over reading boring stuff about investing and money, comments will be limited this week. Money Daily is on December hours, meaning as few as possible without sounding stupid, which, in this environment is all relative, a judgement call. Besides, two weeks from today, Money Daily will shock the world with its 2026 predictions.
Friday, everything got hit. No asset class was spared. It all had something to do with Intel, data center overbuild, profligate spending, AI hallucinations, maybe even piracy in the Caribbean. Stocks, bonds, commodities, bitcoins, alt-coins, (un)stable coins, even pre-1965 90% silver coins were marked down, just in time for Christmas.
Classic rug pull. Certainly, Howard Lutnik and his friends made millions shorting everything American. Works every time.
The global economy, at least the Western part of it, is a complete mockery of macroeconomics. There's no rhyme nor reason to any of it other than gold and silver going to the moon, because, as some people are well aware, gold and silver are money. Everything else is credit or a derivative.
Blah, blah, blah. The current administration and its cohorts in congress continue to bear strong similarities to organized crime families. That's not a simple coincidence. Raiding the treasury and high crimes are the stock in trade of end-of-empire regimes, and this is certainly one of those.
The latest from our lords and ladies in Washington D.C. involves something along the lines of $2,000 tariff stimulus checks (still waiting), seizing oil tankers, what looks to be the largest annual deficit in the nation's history, no end to the drama in Ukraine, and buying up assets of strategic companies, rivaling Fascist Italy from the 1930s and 40s.
Americans don't live in interesting times. They live in thrilling times, which is even worse and nerve-rattling.
Stocks
For the Week:
Dow: +503.06 (+1.05%)
NASDAQ: -382.96 (-1.62%)
S&P 500: -42.99 (-0.63%)
NYSE Composite: +194.28 (+0.89%)
Dow Transports: +321.45 (+1.87%)
Stocks were moving in opposite directions on Friday and throughout the week. While the NASDAQ registered its fourth losing week in the last six, the Dow Transports came within a whisker of its all-time high with a third straight banner week. Unsure why the trannys are raging as such, given the high seas have become dangerous waters for oil tankers and tariffs have slowed trade considerably. Maybe its the general price gouging by UPS, FedEx, and especially the US Postal Service, which raised prices just in time for the holidays and has already announced their usual January price hikes for next year, all at a time in which gasoline prices are nearing a five year low.
Santa Claus will arrive sometime around the 25th, given he's got cheap fuel, though high food costs for Rudolph and has pals are going to cost old Saint Nick a pretty penny. Those reindeer like their steaks rare.
For Wall Street, it cannot get much better. Not only did the FOMC cut interest rates just in time for the holidays, it's been a banner year for traders, and those year-end bonuses are sure to add some fuel to the Santa Claus Rally™.
Bah Humbug say the coiners, silver stackers and goldbugs.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/2025 | 4.01 | 3.96 | 3.98 | 3.92 | 3.83 | 3.76 | 3.63 |
| 11/14/2025 | 4.04 | 4.02 | 4.01 | 3.95 | 3.88 | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| 11/21/2025 | 4.03 | 4.01 | 4.00 | 3.90 | 3.84 | 3.75 | 3.62 |
| 11/28/2025 | 4.05 | 3.97 | 3.99 | 3.88 | 3.86 | 3.74 | 3.61 |
| 12/05/2025 | 3.82 | 3.78 | 3.77 | 3.71 | 3.73 | 3.68 | 3.61 |
| 12/12/2025 | 3.76 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.63 | 3.64 | 3.58 | 3.54 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/2025 | 3.55 | 3.57 | 3.67 | 3.87 | 4.11 | 4.68 | 4.70 |
| 11/14/2025 | 3.62 | 3.61 | 3.74 | 3.92 | 4.14 | 4.73 | 4.74 |
| 11/21/2025 | 3.51 | 3.50 | 3.62 | 3.82 | 4.06 | 4.67 | 4.71 |
| 11/28/2025 | 3.47 | 3.49 | 3.59 | 3.78 | 4.02 | 4.62 | 4.67 |
| 12/05/2025 | 3.56 | 3.59 | 3.72 | 3.90 | 4.14 | 4.75 | 4.79 |
| 12/12/2025 | 3.52 | 3.58 | 3.75 | 3.95 | 4.19 | 4.82 | 4.85 |
Yields rose on Friday, exacerbating an already stretched yield curve. Spreads on 2s-10s and full spectrum are at extremes, both posting numbers not seen since the mid-2000s. With 30-day bills yielding above the fed funds high range and yield on the 30-year bond approaching 5.00%, one has to wonder about the wisdom of cutting rates at a time in which stocks are already approaching all-time highs, employment is still steady, and the federal deficit is soaring.
Regardless, the FOMC did what Wall Street told them to do, despite a split vote, and cut the federal funds target rate to its lowest level in three years. Three percent inflation doesn't seem to both most of the voting members, nor does excessive spending by congress and the White House.
Thankfully, the brain trust at the Fed knows exactly what they're doing. Nobody trusts them at all anymore.
Spreads:
2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51
11/7: +56
11/14: +52
11/21: +55
11/28: +55
12/5: +58
12/12: +67
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61
11/7: +69
11/14: +70
11/21: +68
11/28: +62
12/5: +97
12/12: +109
Oil/Gas
WTI crude closed out the week at $57.53, down 4.5% from last Friday's closeout price of 60.14. There's a glut of oil on the market despite U.S. and E.U. sanctions, pirating of oil cargoes and related energy issues. The producers are pumping and storage facilities are filling. Some people are actually buying crude and turning it into useful fuel.
The U.S. national average for gas at the pump fell to $2.89, the lowest price in roughly five years and three cents lower than the prior week, according to Gasbuddy.com. Gas prices should continue to decline over the near term.
California remains the highest in the lower 48 states, at $4.35 per gallon, down 10 cents on the week and 31 cents over the past four weeks, followed by Washington ($4.00), which is about to go under $4 for the first time in two years. Oregon ($3.58), was down 11 cents. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma checking in with the lowest price in God knows when, $2.23, another radical drop of seven cents just this week. Colorado ($2.41) and Texas ($2.42) were closest. Arkansas ($2.45) and Mississippi ($2.46) and Louisiana ($2.46) follow, each marginally lower. The remaining Southeast states are all below $2.73 with the exception of Florida ($2.78) down 33 cents in three weeks time.
In the Northeast, prices remain elevated, though joining a general decline. Delaware ($2.78) was the lowest in the region, joined by New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Maryland under $3.00, with Pennsylvania ($3.16) stubbornly steady as the highest. Vermont ($3.10) and New York ($3.08) following lower.
In the midwest region, where the price relief has been significant, Illinois ($3.02) was the only state above $3.00. At the low end were Colorado ($2.41) and Iowa ($2.46), the latter down a dime from last week.
Sub-$3.00 gas was reported in fully 36 states, a gain of two from last week and 10 over the past two weeks.
Bitcoin
This week: $89,338.22
Last week: $90,860.37
2 weeks ago: $91,709.19
6 months ago: $105,562.50
One year ago: $102,259.90
Five years ago: $23,841.97
Bitcoin got struck like everything else on Friday, sending the hopes and dreams of 17-year-olds everywhere back to their mom's basements. Good thing they bought in early 2025 and are "hodling", hoping that Tom Lee or Michael Saylor or Anthony Scaramucci is right and bitcoin ends the year at $200,000 or was it $400,000, or $2 million? Yeah, hang in there, Zippy.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 69.30; last week: 72.01
Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 11/14: $4,084.40
Gold price 11/21: $4,099.20
Gold price 11/28: $4,256.40
Gold price 12/5: $4,227.70
Gold price 12/12: $4,329.80
Silver price 11/14: $50.40
Silver price 11/21: $50.33
Silver price 11/28: $57.08
Silver price 12/5: $58.80
Silver price 12/12: $62.08
SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 11/14: $4,080.00
Gold 11/21: $4,063.98
Gold 11/28: $4216.71
Gold 12/5: $4,196.63
Gold 12/12: $4,297.29
Silver 11/14: $50.50
Silver 11/21: $49.97
Silver 11/28: $56.37
Silver 12/5: $58.28
Silver 12/12: $62.01
Of all the asset classes that were negatively affected by Friday's rug-pull, gold and silver were the least troubled, since they were up so much on the week. Silver was making all-time highs daily and gold was finally getting bid after languishing between $4,100 and $,200 for the better part of the past month.
It can probably safely be assumed that the sudden sharp decline in all asset classes was designed to bring precious metals prices back to earth, at least over the weekend, which would be somewhat funny if not for the reality of a dying U.S. dollar.
So, gold and silver were the best performers for the week, though they could have been shooting stars. The money changers just can't stomach much more stacking and hoarding. (Don't tell anybody, but some of them are secretly buying)
The gold:silver ratio continues to descend. When it hits 50, fiat money will begin to disintegrate more rapidly. By the time it gets back to historic levels of 20:1 or 15:1 or 10:1, fiat currencies will be absolutely worthless, sending the world into an economic depression. Give it a few more years, or months, or maybe weeks.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 oz silver coin: | 60.00 | 74.99 | 66.34 | 66.00 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 66.00 | 74.95 | 70.26 | 69.98 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 4,423.10 | 4,635.62 | 4,516.69 | 4,492.20 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 4,472.28 | 4,562.20 | 4,502.93 | 4,495.01 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) delivered, for the third straight week, a solid gain, to $68.15, up $1.46 from the December 7 price of $66.69 per troy ounce. The small-denomination, physical market continues to add high premia over spot and derivative market pricing, making a mockery of the COMEX price-rigging.
WEEKEND WRAP
Hey, football and Christmas. Go have a beer or three. Be nice.
At the Close, Friday, December 12, 2024:
Dow: 48,458.05, -245.96 (-0.51%)
NASDAQ: 23,195.17, -398.69 (-1.69%)
S&P 500: 6,827.41, -73.59 (-1.07%)
NYSE Composite: 22,004.35, -110.07 (-0.50%)
For the Week:
Dow: +503.06 (+1.05%)
NASDAQ: -382.96 (-1.62%)
S&P 500: -42.99 (-0.63%)
NYSE Composite: +194.28 (+0.89%)
Dow Transports: +321.45 (+1.87%)
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