The main focus of the past week, and something that has captured the attention of not a small slice of the investing world, continued to be the silver gambit, as the shiny precious metal continued to make new all-time highs the week following the still mysterious CME global shutdown. There continue to be reverberations from that seminal event, which may, over time, be looked upon as a epochal turning point in global economics. While there are plenty of people who may casually disregard the event and take without any grains of salt the official story of a cooling systems failure, the lack of any official government investigation leads on to conclude that there is actually something to see there, but the insiders don't want you to know what it is.
Stocks languished as bonds flourished, the rate cut odds providing ample rationale to flee from risk. Despite the usual suppression operations, gold and silver exhibited more than usual volatility. Pressure to the upside in prices is obvious and ominous at the same time.
The week ahead will be mostly about the Fed and the rate cut on Wednesday. In particular, it can be safely assumed that markets were playing the waiting game the past week, anticipating the all-powerful wizard of OZ FOMC emitting a bolt of lightning to shock and awe all participants.
Stocks
Stocks wasted everybody's time, with the operripe NASDAQ leading the way with a gain of 0.91%. The other indices were up much less than that, with the NYSE Composite actually registering a loss on the week. Equity investors are desperate for a Santa Claus rally, which could come in the form of a 0.25% rate cut at the FOMC meeting this coming week, on Tuesday and Wednesday, December 9 and 10, the latter date saved for the 2:00 pm ET official rate policy announcement.
While the expected drop in the federal funds rate from 4.00-4.25% to 3.75-4.00% may be good for stocks, it's probably going to be better for gold, silver, and possibly bitcoin, though the crypto king has been in a prolonged slump since early October and may be unable to convince enough suckers of its fabulous, long-term potential as a monetary replacement for the U.S. dollar (dreaming).
The stock market remains very close to all-time highs, and one wonders how long investors will hold onto the idea of seven stocks holding up the entire market structure on the promises of an AI revolution. The narrative has grown thin as the big players - Amazon, Google, Apple, Meta, Nvidia, etc. - are throwing hundreds of billions of dollars to build out data centers and power stations without much in the way of positive return being demonstrated.
AI, while it is useful in many functions, is not in itself a revolutionary development. It is something akin to a much faster search engine, a super-quick graphic card, and a relatively erudite wordsmith. It's main attraction is its ability to parse data at lightning speeds, which requires intense amounts of computing power. Applications for business and industry are paramount, but the promulgation of smaller, well-defined small language models (SMEs) may prove eventually to be cheaper and of more efficient use than the race toward large language models (LLMs) sought by the mega-tech companies.
As with every incident of technological advancement, there exists small start-ups and mid-cap companies whose use and advancement of the technology may produce returns that dwarf those of their gigantic rivals. Identifying those companies poised to benefit from further advancement in AI (which should be eventually deflationary when brought to scale) would be a worthwhile undertaking for the keenest of stock pickers.
Since Money Daily is not in the business of giving investment advice, we'll leave it at that, offering direction instead.
As the year of 2025 draws to a conclusion, stocks appear to have locked in rather solid gains. With just 17 trading days left, the Dow is up 12.73% year-to-date, the S&P up 16.81%, and the NASDAQ up 22.10%.
The NYSE Composite is up 14.21% on the year, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average lags, at +8.10%. Without sufficient catalysts to move stocks much higher, there's a good possibility for pullback on profit taking. There remains more than ample rationale to exit with profits before the calendar turns, with tax implications of this year and fourth quarter earnings results ahead in the new year.
While the top may already be in for this leg of the rally, nobody's yet to ring a bell, so, as anyone with two eyes is aware, this bubble may not be anywhere near bursting and a ride higher through the holiday season remains the general sentiment, and deservedly so, as the stock market usually performs rather well in December.
Individuals and institutions are likely to make their own choices based upon their investment regimens, which obviously have wide variety. Up, down, or mixed, seems to be the state of play.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 10/31/2025 | 4.06 | 4.02 | 4.04 | 3.89 | 3.87 | 3.79 | 3.70 |
| 11/07/2025 | 4.01 | 3.96 | 3.98 | 3.92 | 3.83 | 3.76 | 3.63 |
| 11/14/2025 | 4.04 | 4.02 | 4.01 | 3.95 | 3.88 | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| 11/21/2025 | 4.03 | 4.01 | 4.00 | 3.90 | 3.84 | 3.75 | 3.62 |
| 11/28/2025 | 4.05 | 3.97 | 3.99 | 3.88 | 3.86 | 3.74 | 3.61 |
| 12/05/2025 | 3.82 | 3.78 | 3.77 | 3.71 | 3.73 | 3.68 | 3.61 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 10/31/2025 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.71 | 3.89 | 4.11 | 4.65 | 4.67 |
| 11/07/2025 | 3.55 | 3.57 | 3.67 | 3.87 | 4.11 | 4.68 | 4.70 |
| 11/14/2025 | 3.62 | 3.61 | 3.74 | 3.92 | 4.14 | 4.73 | 4.74 |
| 11/21/2025 | 3.51 | 3.50 | 3.62 | 3.82 | 4.06 | 4.67 | 4.71 |
| 11/28/2025 | 3.47 | 3.49 | 3.59 | 3.78 | 4.02 | 4.62 | 4.67 |
| 12/05/2025 | 3.56 | 3.59 | 3.72 | 3.90 | 4.14 | 4.75 | 4.79 |
Fed speakers are in "quiet mode" prior to this week's FOMC meeting (Tuesday-Wednesday) as the 25 basis point cut seems virtually assured, especially given recent employment data. In the absence of the usual Non-farm Payroll data from the BLS, November's ADP report of a 45,000 jobs loss for the month sufficed to move the needle sufficiently in the direction of easier money.
Bond vigilantes weren't exactly sold on the idea, sending longer maturities higher over the week while the short end of the curve was brought lower. Yields on one-month bills declined a solid 23 basis points with the remainder giving up less until evening out at the one-year level, rising on maturities beyond that. The 30-year yield was the highest in three months (4.86% on September 4). While no cause for immediate alarm, the rise on longer-dated maturities signals that the general market still considers inflation an issue and the general tenor of U.S. fiscal policy for too loosey-goosey, for lack of a better term.
Spreads blew out, with the full spectrum (30 days - 30 years) reaching an unprecedented extreme of +97 as the polar fixtures moved in opposite directions. 2s-10s were better behaved, reaching 58, a three-month high, indicative of the many stresses in the funding mechanisms for U.S. fiscal profligacy.
From a near-term perspective, the sudden jerking of the entire curve, lower on one end, higher on the other, may seem troubling, but overall, a steepening should prove beneficial to the government as it attempts to reign in its extravagance, at least at the margins. Not to be concerned, congress will almost certainly find ways to overspend borrowed money until, well, something breaks, ostensibly, U.S. taxpayers.
Spreads:
2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51
11/7: +56
11/14: +52
11/21: +55
11/28: +55
12/5: +58
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61
11/7: +69
11/14: +70
11/21: +68
11/28: +62
12/5: +97
Oil/Gas
WTI crude closed out the week at $60.14, departing from a two-week skid into the $50s, based primarily on what speculators must have considered to be oversold conditions, given that the latest round of sanctions propose to bring the evil Russian empire of crude oil to its knees and President Trump's 28, or 24, or 18-point peace plan were a sure step in the right direction towards an end of hostilities in Ukraine. What the half-hearted proposal did was provide cover for the failures of U.S. foreign policy, another short-term victory for the war promoters of Europe and the deep state in America, and more time for Russia's military to advance along the battle lines.
Such is the kind of lunacy effective in energy markets and the idle minds on Capitol Hill and in the White House. 18 rounds of sanctions designed to damage Russia haven't worked, but the 19th surely will. At this juncture, Senator Graham's proposal for even more extreme sanctions on Russia and its trading partners appear to have broad support, since everything up to this point hasn't worked. Indeed, THIS TIME will be different. Promise!
The U.S. national average for gas at the pump fell to $2.92, the lowest price in roughly five years and six cents lower than the prior week, according to Gasbuddy.com. Gas prices should continue to decline over the near term and through winter which is nothing but good news for stretched consumers and businesses.
California remains the highest in the lower 48 states, at $4.45 per gallon, down 10 cent on the week and 21 cents over the past three weeks, followed by Washington ($4.17), the two constituting the membership of the lonely $4+ club. Oregon ($3.69), was down six cents. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma checking in near the lowest price in over a year, $2.30, another radical drop of 15 cents just this week. Colorado ($2.39) and Texas ($2.42) were next. Arkansas ($2.46) and Mississippi ($2.48) and Louisiana ($2.49) follow. The remaining Southeast states are all below $2.76 with the exception of Florida ($3.91) down 20 cents in two weeks time.
In the Northeast, prices remain elevated, though at the early stages of what appears to be a general decline. Delaware ($2.89) was the lowest in the region, joined by New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Maryland under $3.00, with Pennsylvania ($3.17) steady as the highest. Vermont ($3.12) and New York ($3.09) following lower.
In the midwest region, where the price relief has been significant, Illinois ($3.04) was the only state above $3.00. At the low end were Colorado ($2.39) and Iowa ($2.56).
Sub-$3.00 gas was reported in fully 34 states, a gain of three from last week and eight over the past two weeks.
Bitcoin
This week: $90,860.37
Last week: $91,709.19
2 weeks ago: $87,373.34
6 months ago: $105,525.30
One year ago: $99,819.01
Five years ago: $18,810.76
Bitcoin has recovered from a low of around $81,000 on November 22. It remains 27% or lower beneath its all-time high of October 7 ($124.310.60). A purchase of bitcoin five years ago still yields a five-bagger. It was nearly a seven-bagger two months ago. It doesn't take much in the way of fundamental analysis to conclude that bitcoin's current path is reminiscent of that of the period from mid-November, 2021 to the end of January, 2022, when it lost nearly $30,000, being cut almost in half, on its way from the high above $64,000 to a low in the $16,000 range, a roughly 75% decline.
The current trajectory puts bitcoin at $30,000 within a year's time, not the $200,000 or $1 million suggested by the likes of Anthony Scaramucci or Michael Saylor, whose business, Strategy (MSTR), will be pretty much bankrupted with such a decline. Charts are charts and cycles are cycles. Bitcoin cheerleaders haven't had much in the way of good things to say about crypto the past few months except that it's cheap, which is like saying the Colorado Rockies will probably win more games next season (maybe).
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 72.01; last week: 74.80
Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 11/7: $4,007.80
Gold price 11/14: $4,084.40
Gold price 11/21: $4,099.20
Gold price 11/28: $4,256.40
Gold price 12/5: $4,227.70
Silver price 11/7: $48.22
Silver price 11/14: $50.40
Silver price 11/21: $50.33
Silver price 11/28: $57.08
Silver price 12/5: $58.80
SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 11/7: $3999.89
Gold 11/14: $4,080.00
Gold 11/21: $4,063.98
Gold 11/28: $4216.71
Gold 12/5: $4,196.63
Silver 11/7: $48.33
Silver 11/14: $50.50
Silver 11/21: $49.97
Silver 11/28: $56.37
Silver 12/5: $58.28
Friday's closing futures price for gold on the COMEX is kind of a sick joke, considering that gold futures hit a high of $4,292.30 on Monday, December 1, and $4,279.50 on Friday, December 5. The gold price suppressors remain fully in control in terms of the gold market, with central banks worldwide more than willing to accede to their pricing scheme as they continue to accumulate the Tier 1 asset of choice.
What is not so funny is the loss of control of silver futures, that metric being led by physical spot pricing in the real world. With the March contract as the front end, silver futures are back in contango, though the highest price on the futures chain of $60.69 one year out (December 2026) does not reflect very much of the spot market supply side reality. Industrial demand, increasing investment interest, and a severe supply shortage continue to pressure prices higher and the gold:silver ratio lower, to a level not seen since July, 2021, as the world was emerging from the brief and painful COVID experience.
The covid slump, which sent the GSR down to a low of 65.41 in February, 2021, was neither very deep nor lasting. Gold and silver prices quickly recovered, with gold the leading edge. This was nothing compared to the post-GFC level of 31.60 posted in February 2011, as silver skyrocketed ahead of all other assets out of the slump, reaching its highest prices since 1980.
From an historical perspective, the lowest levels of the gold:silver ratio were in 1968 and 1980, when this metric was measured in the teens. In between, through the 1970s, the GSR gyrated around the low to mid-30s. This period, post-Vietnam and also post-Bretton Woods, was a time of relative peace and prosperity for much of the world. Once the mechanisms were fully in place for price suppression of precious metals, the proponents of such found it easier to control the price of silver that that of gold, the former being a much smaller market. Of course, this period was subsequent to silver being demonetized in the United States (In 1965 silver coins were removed from circulation and in 1968 silver certificates were no longer redeemable for physical metal.) and antecedent to the infamous Hunt Brothers' escapades in the silver market in 1979 and 1980.
Conditions have changed dramatically since then. In the 50+ years since the 70s, the United States became the world's greatest debtor nation, arguably the world's foremost military aggressor and global hegemon, and today is experiencing a decline in financial and political dominance as the world becomes increasingly fractured and polarized. The main industrial use of silver was in film processing in the 70s and 80s. Today, it's solar energy, EV technology, and military manufacturing, much greater use.
What is also propelling the price of silver higher and the gold:silver ratio lower is the increased interest in silver as a monetary metal. It was 60 years ago that silver was used as a common currency, a medium of exchange, as money in not just the United States, but in many countries around the world. While silver is no longer accepted as currency or legal tender in most of the world, that is changing rapidly in major economies such as China, India, and even the United States.
The Sound Money Defense League and Money Metals produce the Sound Money Index which rates the individual states on various criteria in terms of the free use of gold and silver as money. On April 1, 2026, Indian citizens will have the ability to use silver coins and jewelry as collateral for loans, and China, which maintained a silver standard until 1935, has a long history with silver as money.
While silver minted as currency ended abruptly in the mid-20th century, the minting of silver coins for investment purposes has continued uninterrupted. From Canadian Maple Leafs, U.S. Silver Eagles, Australian Kangaroos, Cinese Pandas, and Mexican Libertads, the minting of silver coins of high (.999) purity has proceeded uninterrupted.
Those who believe that a return to a 10:1, 15:1 or 20:1 gold:silver ratio simply don't know their history. It has only been in the past 150 years (essentially since the "Crime of 1873") that silver has not held a tight peg to gold. Recent developments, such as India maximizing silver loans at a 10:1 ratio to gold (1 kilogram gold to 10 kilograms silver) and the Dubai Bank of Bullion specifying minimum purchases of 1 Oz of Gold, Platinum or Palladium and 10 Oz of Silver as minimum purchases, suggest a stealth reordering of the gold:silver ratio.
While the gold:silver ratio appears to be beginning a trend lower, getting back to historical standards of 10:1 ro 20:1 would likely take decades, or, it could happen in the blink of an eye, taking just one populous country, such as India or China, to formally declare a gold:silver ratio for a global reset to occur. The arbitrage possibilities would be so enormous that most, if not all, other countries would soon fall in line with the new standard. It is something that all siver and gold investors should carefully consider.
In the meantime, silver continues its recent acceleration over gold. Year-to-date, silver is up 101.95% to gold's rise of 60.66%. In just the past six months, silver is up a whopping 60% compared to gold's rather "pedestrian" 26%, and the meteoric rise of silver may be just beginning. The gold:silver ratio can drop rapidly. As it is, it has fallen from over 100 in May to its current level of 72. That's 30 points in just eight months. If the trend continues, imagine where it might be in five years and what the price of both gold and silver might be. Estimates range from the reasonable to the absurd, but the numbers bandied about recently focus around $10,000 for gold and $700 for silver, a GSR around 14. Over the near term, $5000 gold and $100 silver (50:1) does not seem far-fetched, even as early as the coming new year.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
| 1 oz silver coin: | 59.50 | 69.95 | 66.23 | 67.48 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 62.00 | 73.95 | 66.62 | 66.43 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 4,221.99 | 4,518.12 | 4,400.19 | 4,389.92 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 4,338.76 | 4,477.78 | 4,400.74 | 4,386.88 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) delivered, for the second straight week, an impressive gain, to $66.69, up $3.75 cents from the November 30 price of $62.94 per troy ounce. The small-denomination, physical market continues to add high premia over spot and derivative market pricing.
WEEKEND WRAP
As legend goes, the eminent J.P. Morgan, when queried on whether he thought markets will go up or down, paused a moment and said, as sagaciously as possible, "markets will fluctuate." That, friends, is a truism that should always be top of mind when making any kind of investment decision.
At the Close, Friday, December 5, 2025:
Dow: 47,954.99, +104.05 (+0.22%)
NASDAQ: 23,578.13, +72.99 (+0.31%)
S&P 500: 6,870.40, +13.28 (+0.19%)
NYSE Composite: 21,810.07, -25.72 (-0.12%)
For the Week:
Dow: +238.57 (+0.50%)
NASDAQ: +212.44 (+0.91%)
S&P 500: +21.31 (+0.31%)
NYSE Composite: -14.60 (-0.07%)
Dow Transports: +597.31 (+3.60%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
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