The Yen has collapsed 19% in the last few months, the $USD is now at a 13-year high and stocks are at one of their most overbought levels in 100 years.
If that last statement about stocks being wildly overvalued doesn't give one pause, consider the situation the last time the Fed raised interest rates. It was a year ago, last December. On the day of the rate increase, December 16, the Dow Industrial Average closed at 17,749.09. The index dipped and dodged for two weeks, re-rallying back to close at 17,720.98, December 29, never quite getting back to previous highs.
But, when the new year dawned, the floodgates opened as sellers emerged from the shadows, many of them likely taking advantage of tax rules on profitable trades, mostly allowing those profits from 2015 to float tax-free until April of 2017 (the future) if sold in 2016. Tricky, allowable, rational and fully legal was this tactic which in effect dropped the Dow by a shade over 11 percent to a closing quote of 15,766.74 on January 20.
That was officially correction territory, and, while the rest of the trading community was wondering if this was going to be a 2008 redux, the Fed and its central banking brethren quietly began undermining market fundamentals (again, surprise!) by surreptitiously buying equities through proxies, particularly, the Bank of Japan, notorious for market meddling in everything from auto parts to currencies to yes, Virginia, stocks.
As it turned out, the trade was a worthwhile one for those central banking and insider trading folks. The Dow is now hurtling headlong towards 20,000, so, depending on which stocks the proxies were buying, they may have profited upwards of 25%.
Is the market rigged, or is it ready to face the awful reality of a federal funds rate at 0.50-0.75% The horror! One is amazed at not only the audacity of the central banking cartel, but also its awesome good fortune on all matters regarding their (your) money.
Getting back to the set-up from last year, the yen was down only 10% from September through December of 2015, about half of its decline this year. Can history repeat, and with even better results? That's one heck of a bet, if one is so inclined. For the rest of us, it looks like sitting on the sidelines for the rest of 2016 might turn out to be a profitable move.
It's of dubious probability that stocks are going to stage any kind of dramatic rally, so, what's the play, and when.
It's not often that Money Daily offers specific investment advice, but, taking a gander at what's happened to gold and silver the past few months (gold dropping from above $1300 to below $1160 and silver dipping from near $20 per ounce to around $17 currently), the opportunity is available to not necessarily make a killing, but to preserve some wealth in precious metals, you know, those things that have been considered money for thousands of years, gold and silver.
Being that Money Daily is more of a silver surfer than a gold bug, the recommendation is for silver at any price below $16.00. The market will not likely tolerate downside below $14.50, and the potential is there for a fabulous move upside, without the prerequisite dip.
So, here's the scenario. Stocks will remain steady or turn upwards for the remainder of December. After all, what's Christmas without a Santa Claus rally? Remember, stocks are wildly overpriced and overdue for some corrective medicine. The dollar should get a good, hard beating, but it probably won't because other major economies are in much worse shape.
It gets more complicated, because a strong dollar makes US goods more expensive overseas, and, if our newly-elected president has his way, imports are going to be heavily taxed, and soon. A trade war is likely to erupt by mid-2017.
Bond yields should benefit from rising interest rates, whereas gold and silver should see further price deterioration.
The wild cards are many, but the obvious one is inflation. If the Fed continues resolutely on course to foment inflation above two percent (impossible, say some, though the PPI came in today with a surprising gain of 0.4% for November, at the same time industrial production dipped 0.4% and capacity utilization also fell, to a six-month low of 75.0%.
While the majority of mainstream idiot economists pay scant attention to the latter two data points, CEOs and real economists take these numbers seriously. How is there going to be inflation when industrial production is slowing or stagnant and utilization is only 75% when the norm for growing economies is closer to 85%? Yet, there it is, with producer prices advancing at an annualized rate of 4.8%. Tomorrow's release of CPI for November will be the final nail in the coffin of controlled destruction economics engineered by the Fed and foreign central bank proxies.
Sorry if there's hardly anything positive in this report, but the era of central bank meddling, manipulating and needling intervention is in need of departure. They've managed to create an economy that benefits only those in the know, at the expense of taxpayers and citizens worldwide. It's like a giant plantation, with a healthy portion of worker paychecks - via taxes, fees, inflation and other theft - as the harvest.
You're being fattened and groomed for the slaughter or shearing, in a world which allows most to gain marginally but not substantially. Those without an escape hatch like a side business or secret gold vault are victims of mediocrity, though most will never notice and hardly ever complain.
So, off we go to FOMC land, with the big announcement (that's sarcasm, friend) fewer than two hours away.
Reiterating the call for silver surfing, WAIT. It's difficult with silver at such bargain levels, but it's almost sure to go lower, especialy if it goes a little higher. The central bankers - who hate competition from other forms of money - simply won't have it, and, since they have complete control over the paper silver market, they'll crush the price. If silver spikes above $19, it's a missed opportunity, but, bonus, your holdings are now worth more of those teeny-weeny Federal Reserve Notes.
The best timing may be the week between Christmas and New Year's Day, when nobody is paying much attention, or within the first three weeks of January. After the inauguration on the 20th, it's possible that markets will experience some serious turmoil, so there may be more time available to stock up on the stuff that powers solar panels and is the best electrical conductor in the universe, besides being the money of gentlemen.
“Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves.”-- Norm Franz in his book Money and Wealth in the New Millennium (2001).
More after the market close.