There are moments in which one has to question whether the entire financial system - particularly the stock market - isn't just one big rigged gentleman's game.
Friday was one of those moments.
Were it not for the market-wide rally off the morning lows, wherein the Dow was down more than 500 points, the NASDAQ was off by 200, and the S&P had slumped 60 points, these weekly results might all have been negatives, at least in the case of the NAZ and S&P, which would have resulted in five straight weekly losses.
Dow: +497.16 (+1.20%)
NASDAQ: +29.96 (+0.17%)
S&P 500: +28.62 (+0.51%)
Being that Friday was a quad-witching day, there were all manner of trades to be made, especially in the realm of options and futures, by which stocks could be guided in any direction, higher, lower, or both ways if need be.
The case can be made that Friday's rally was nothing more than a massive short squeeze. Indeed, all short, day-long rallies of the past few weeks might easily be redefined as short squeezes, the maligned bulls getting a small dose of redemption by taking out the weakest hands, keeping those ravenous bears from further degradation of their precious assets.
There's obviously more in play than the bruised egos of the powerful elite. Pension and retirement funds, IRAs, 401k plans, and the general well-being and "wealth effect" of the global village is tied to U.S. stock markets. When these assets get written down, the losses are felt far afield. It is thus in the best interests of the Wall Street horde and their muppet clients to keep stocks at premium levels, with valuations that are of the sky-high pie-in-the-sky variety, like Nvidia, Amazon, META, and the rest of the tech stocks, or more reasonable dividend-yielding types like some Dow stocks, maybe Boeing, or Walmart, Home Depot, Coca-Cola, IBM, et. al.
Americans are easily amused and just as easily distracted or deceived. They assume Wall Street employs the best and brightest, after the government's intelligence and IRS types, of course. Residing at the top of the heap does not necessarily confer high moral grounding, however, a common misconception amongst the great unwashed.
Americans used to trust its institutions: the government, the media, Wall Street. Now that many lies and deceptions of the past are being exposed, it's not a stretch to assume that trust is long since broken, but the lies and deception continue. Maybe there will be more truths exposed. Maybe not.
But, like the neurotic paranoid attests, "just because you think you're being followed doesn't make it not true."
Wealth effect. That's about as practical (for keeping the herd inside the fences) as trickle-down economics or geo-political domino theory.
Chew on that Americans. Then check and see if your lunch money is all still in your pocket.
Stocks
The major averages finished the week on a slightly positive note. Over the course of the past six weeks, however, stocks are still down significantly. The Dow Transports remain deeply red and the NASDAQ is still in what most people consider "correction territory," down -11.85% from December 16 highs. Though the other indices aren't quite as badly damaged, believing that the worst is over just because this week finished on a high note is delusional.
Markets are quite obviously at the start of a bear market phase. In about a month's time (end April), the initial estimate of first quarter GDP will be released. Odds are that it's either going to be very weak, in the range of 0.5-1.5% growth or outright negative, possibly as negative as -2.6-3.5%. There's plenty of money sloshing around, so liquidity isn't a problem yet, but Americans having been ravaged by inflation the past few years while to government was overspending in order to make the economy appear robust and prosperous, the physics of equal and opposite effects are about to be sprung.
Credit card and auto loan deficiencies are rising. Household income is stagnant at best and the effects of the DOGE cuts and other cost-saving measures have yet to be incorporated into the overall equation. Publicly-traded companies, as much as they are trading at perfection-level valuations, aren't wildly profitable. Some have issued profit and revenue warnings. Others are already suffering, with year-ago measures not up to par. Beyond tech stocks, which have been the hardest hit, financials and consumer discretionary sectors have been degraded.
Restaurant chains are beginning to compete on price as inflation become less of a worry and deflation, the Fed's utmost worry, begins to materialize as spending slows and austerity becomes prudent.
Under current conditions, stocks, in general, are less likely to rise than they are to decline further.
Companies reporting earnings this week:
Monday: (before open) Intuitive Machines (LUNR), Lucid Diagnostics (LUCD); (after close) Abivax (ABVX), KB Home (KBH), Dragonfly (DFLI)
Tuesday: (before open) McCormick (MKC), Smithfield (SFD), Rumble (RUM), CanadianSolar (CSIQ); (after close) Corvus Pharmaceuticals (CRVS), Paysign (PAYS), Kolibri (KGEI), GameStop (GME)
Wednesday: (before open) Chewy (CHWY), Paychex (PAYX), Cintas (CTAS), Dollar Tree ((DLTR); (after close) Petco (WOOF), Concentrix (CNXC), MicroVision (MVIS)
Thursday: (before open) Bitfarms (BITF), Winnebago (WGO); (after close) Lululemon (LULU), Abacus Life (ABL)
Friday: (before open) Katapult (KPLT), Super League (SLE).
For economic indicators, the coming week offers flash PMI readings from S&P, along with the third estimate on U.S. Q4 GDP growth. Core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) for February comes Friday.
The IPO market will be all about cloud computing firm CoreWeave (CRWV), expected to debut on the Nasdaq this week, looking to raise as much as $2.7 billion This IPO, being Nvidia-related, offers an acid test of the suspect AI trade.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
Date |
1 Mo |
1.5 mo |
2 Mo |
3 Mo |
4 Mo |
6 Mo |
1 Yr |
02/14/2025 |
4.37 |
N/A |
4.38 |
4.34 |
4.35 |
4.32 |
4.23 |
02/21/2025 |
4.36 |
N/A |
4.38 |
4.32 |
4.34 |
4.30 |
4.15 |
02/28/2025 |
4.38 |
4.37 |
4.38 |
4.32 |
4.32 |
4.25 |
4.08 |
03/07/2025 |
4.38 |
4.36 |
4.33 |
4.34 |
4.29 |
4.29 |
4.05 |
03/14/2025 |
4.37 |
4.36 |
4.33 |
4.33 |
4.30 |
4.29 |
4.09 |
03/21/2025 |
4.36 |
4.33 |
4.33 |
4.33 |
4.29 |
4.26 |
4.04 |
Date |
2 Yr |
3 Yr |
5 Yr |
7 Yr |
10 Yr |
20 Yr |
30 Yr |
02/14/2025 |
4.26 |
4.26 |
4.33 |
4.41 |
4.47 |
4.75 |
4.69 |
02/21/2025 |
4.19 |
4.19 |
4.26 |
4.35 |
4.42 |
4.69 |
4.67 |
02/28/2025 |
3.99 |
3.99 |
4.03 |
4.14 |
4.24 |
4.55 |
4.51 |
03/07/2025 |
3.99 |
4.01 |
4.09 |
4.21 |
4.32 |
4.66 |
4.62 |
03/14/2025 |
4.02 |
4.00 |
4.09 |
4.20 |
4.31 |
4.65 |
4.62 |
03/21/2025 |
3.94 |
3.92 |
4.00 |
4.12 |
4.25 |
4.60 |
4.59 |
The FOMC meeting last Tuesday and Wednesday did little to change expectations, sending yields on long-dated maturities lower. Indicating two 25 basis point cuts still to come this year, the Fed is pushing on a string against fiscal restraint on the government side.
Beyond the Fed becoming less influential than it has been in maybe 25 years, fiscal policy is in the driver's seat. Bond vigilantes will set the tone.
The spread on 2s-10s widened out to +31, a healthy level, but the overall curve is still flat on an historical basis.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
Oil/Gas
WTI crude oil gained for a second straight week, closing at $68.30 Friday, a solid gain from last week's closing price of 67.19. Crude remains under pressure with further downside risk.
Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump up, from $3.04 last Sunday to the current $3.11, which, despite not being a huge bump, is concerning since gas prices haven't actually declined much since January and February. They were actually lower in November and December. The price hike could be the result of summer blends coming online or simply refiners making better profits. The federal government has begun refilling the depleted strategic oil reserve, which also could have contributed to the general increase.
California remains at $4.61, the priciest gas in the country. Oklahoma, at $2.63, and Mississippi ($2.64) are the lowest. outside of Pennsylvania ($3.22), New England and East coast states all range between $2.85 (New Hampshire) and $3.05 (New York).
Every state in the Southeast is under $3.00, including Florida, which comes in at $2.93. The Midwest is elevated while the West continues to have the highest prices. Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, at $4.07. Oregon is at $3.70, Nevada ($3.68) and Arizona ($3.34) are next.
Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in at least 33 U.S. states this week.
Bitcoin
This week: $85,049.05
Last week: $84,425.85
2 weeks ago: $83,414.10
6 months ago: $63,130.39
One year ago: $67,228.68
Five years ago: $6886.60
Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4. There's an even chance of it going back to that level as there is falling to around $65,000-$70,000.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 90.96; last week: 87.76
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 2/23: $2,949.60
Gold price 3/2: $2,867.30
Gold price 3/9: $2,917.70
Gold price 3/16: $2,993.60
Gold price 3/23: $3,028.20
Silver price 2/23: $32.83
Silver price 3/2: $31.43
Silver price 3/9: $32.55
Silver price 3/16: $34.11
Silver price 3/23: $33.29
To the dismay of many stackers, silver backtracked this week just as gold was setting new records. The gold:silver ratio has been out of whack for decades, and one wonders if it will ever be normalized again. Silver, as it is still recognized as a monetary metal, has been suppressed much more virulently than gold, and continues to be.
This weekend's gold:silver ratio of 90.96 screams, "buy silver."
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
Item/Price |
Low |
High |
Average |
Median |
1 oz silver coin: |
34.99 |
48.00 |
40.58 |
39.89 |
1 oz silver bar: |
37.00 |
44.50 |
40.61 |
41.00 |
1 oz gold coin: |
3,053.95 |
3,378.91 |
3,229.71 |
3,247.46 |
1 oz gold bar: |
3,039.00 |
3,194.24 |
3,151.65 |
3,155.35 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) was knocked back this week, to $40.52, a decline of $1.74 from the March 16 price of $42.26 per troy ounce.
WEEKEND WRAP
This week was more or less a pause from the frenetic pace the past eight weeks since President Trump's inauguration. There is still time to adjust.
At the Close, Friday, March 21, 2025:
Dow: 41,985.35, +32.03 (+0.08%)
NASDAQ: 17,784.05, +92.42 (+0.52%)
S&P 500: 5,667.56, +4.67 (+0.08%)
NYSE Composite: 19,454.30, -82.97 (-0.42%)
For the Week:
Dow: +497.16 (+1.20%)
NASDAQ: +29.96 (+0.17%)
S&P 500: +28.62 (+0.51%)
NYSE Composite: +222.96 (+1.16%)
Dow Transports: -34.94 (-0.24%)