As "uncertainty" - over tariffs and other Trump administration policies - was surely the buzzword of the past few weeks, "positioning" is likely to supplant it in the financial lexicon as U.S. markets and the rest of the world adjusts to the new, emergent Trump regime.
Quite frankly, there's been an obvious shift away from the Magnificent 7 and other tech stocks, but the sectors that will weather the storm have yet to be defined. Fixed income has benefitted, as the Fed appears in no rush to lower interest rates, and consumer staples, with inflation on the wane, could be the next big thing, along with materials, utilities, and possibly health care, although, akin to financials, that sector could be a roll of the dice.
Global recession cannot be entirely ruled out, though the depth and length of such is a topic for debate. Politically speaking, the Trump team would prefer deep and short, giving ample time for recovery prior to the midterms while at the same time causing enough pain to shake out weak players.
Trump's so-called "weave" design may initially appear to be more of a shake down than a natural flow, but whatever the course or manner, change is necessary, and good. The first quarter, in terms of GDP, looks to be a disaster superficially, with estimates ranging from below-par growth of maybe one to one-and-a-half percent to outright decline of as much as three percent.
The first estimate of 2025 1Q GDP won't be disclosed until the last Thursday in April (24th) and there's ample potential for the economy and markets to turn any which way. Consensus opinion may be looking at the worst of times in anticipation of better days ahead, but the overall picture, on Wall Street's usual short-term outlook, isn't very constructive.
Stocks
As many suspected, Monday's big rally turned out to be nothing more than a fat tabby taking a huge bounce.Major indices trended back toward lows set mid-March. With April 2nd's "liberation day" (according to President Trump) falling on Wednesday, the week ahead looks to be one of the more precarious in recent memory, which is saying a lot, considering recent volatility.
Monday marks the official end to the first quarter. Judging by market action on Friday, a deep downturn, there would not appear to be much in the way of last minute window dressing on schedule other than further shedding of tech, financials and other risky individual names.
Since the inauguration, the 10 weeks hence have produced five weeks lower and five higher for the Dow, though the down weeks were more extreme than those positive. On the NASDAQ, only three weeks were positive, with seven producing losses. Four of the last five have been downers, the same applying to the S%P.
Similarities to the 2022 bear market are striking, if not even more enhanced. Back then, the S&P lost 23% from the start of the year to the middle of June. The NASDAQ lost 33% from its high of November 19, 2021 through mid-June, 2022. Both declined slightly more before recovery began in late October, early November, 2022.
With the NASDAQ re-entering correction this past week (-14%), the tech-laden index closed less than 20 points from its recent low from March 13 (17,303.01). April Fool's Day, which is Tuesday, may be a watershed for the NASDAQ, plunging to fresh lows with an even more decisive day next.
For what its worth, the S&P finished this week down 9.13% from its recent all-time high of February 19. Putting strict definitions aside, semantics allows for the S&P to be included in "correction territory" as well.
Tariff imposition on Wednesday will highlight the week's economic events. Other than that, employment will be in focus with Wednesday's JOLTS report and ADP's private sector report for March. The week closes out with March Non-farm payrolls on Friday.
Very few companies are reporting earnings this week:
Monday: FTC Solar (FTCI), Synergy (SNRY), I Am Cannabis (IMCC); (after close) Open Lending (LPRO), Red Cat (RCAT)
Tuesday: (after close) Sportsman's Warehouse (SPWH)
Wednesday: (before open) BlackBerry (BB), UniFirst (UNF); (after close) Penguin Solutions (PENG), Bassett (BSET)
Thursday: (before open) Renovo RX (RNXT), Conagra (CAG); (after close) Guess (GES).
The IPO of CoreWeave (CRWV), which went to market on the Nasdaq last week, didn't go very well. CoreWeave's shares closed flat, at $40 per share after opening nearly three percent below the offer price in its Friday debut, implying a valuation of $23 billion. Its close affiliation to Nvidia cast a dark shadow over the AI investment boom.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date |
1 Mo |
1.5 mo |
2 Mo |
3 Mo |
4 Mo |
6 Mo |
1 Yr |
| 02/21/2025 |
4.36 |
N/A |
4.38 |
4.32 |
4.34 |
4.30 |
4.15 |
| 02/28/2025 |
4.38 |
4.37 |
4.38 |
4.32 |
4.32 |
4.25 |
4.08 |
| 03/07/2025 |
4.38 |
4.36 |
4.33 |
4.34 |
4.29 |
4.29 |
4.05 |
| 03/14/2025 |
4.37 |
4.36 |
4.33 |
4.33 |
4.30 |
4.29 |
4.09 |
| 03/21/2025 |
4.36 |
4.33 |
4.33 |
4.33 |
4.29 |
4.26 |
4.04 |
| 03/28/2025 |
4.38 |
4.35 |
4.35 |
4.33 |
4.30 |
4.26 |
4.04 |
| Date |
2 Yr |
3 Yr |
5 Yr |
7 Yr |
10 Yr |
20 Yr |
30 Yr |
| 02/21/2025 |
4.19 |
4.19 |
4.26 |
4.35 |
4.42 |
4.69 |
4.67 |
| 02/28/2025 |
3.99 |
3.99 |
4.03 |
4.14 |
4.24 |
4.55 |
4.51 |
| 03/07/2025 |
3.99 |
4.01 |
4.09 |
4.21 |
4.32 |
4.66 |
4.62 |
| 03/14/2025 |
4.02 |
4.00 |
4.09 |
4.20 |
4.31 |
4.65 |
4.62 |
| 03/21/2025 |
3.94 |
3.92 |
4.00 |
4.12 |
4.25 |
4.60 |
4.59 |
| 03/28/2025 |
3.89 |
3.91 |
3.98 |
4.11 |
4.27 |
4.65 |
4.64 |
Spreads blew out this week with 2s-10s at +38 basis points and full spectrum +26. Traders were buying mostly the 2-year note and selling the long end, from 10s out to 30s. Bills remained elevated and stagnant with prospects for any Fed rate decreases any time soon looking rather bleak. Currently, the attitude has shifted away from rate cuts coming from inflation to rate cuts as an emergency stimulus measure to stave off a recession.
The hard truth as it relates to the flat-lined curve and elevated short term rates is that the Fed is likely to be reluctant to lower rates even in a recessionary environment, having just spent the past few years battling inflation. The Fed should be conservative and measured when it comes to policy during this disruptive period. The worst thing the Fed could do is launch a move in one direction or another, only to have to reverse itself as changing conditions emerge.
The most probable policy for the Fed over the next six months to a year is to do nothing. As history has shown, they're very good at kicking back and going with the flow until they find themselves behind the curve. Interest rates, from a business perspective, are fair, and leaving the treasury market to the traders rather than as a function of Fed policy, lends itself to a more stable set of conditions, an overall plus for the economy.
Thus, the Fed becomes less relevant going forward as the market focuses on emerging economic conditions rather than being hopeful for the relief of lower short-term rates.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
Oil/Gas
WTI crude oil gained for a third straight week, closing at $69.04 Friday, a meaningless advance from last week's closing price of $68.30, briefly trading over $70.00 per barrel for roughly three hours over the course of the week, never getting any higher than $70.09. Crude remains under pressure with further downside risk. It is clear that under current conditions, the global market will not tolerate a price over $70.
Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.12, up just a penny from last week's $3.11. Gas prices haven't actually declined much since January and February and were actually lower in November and December, but, a year ago, the national average was $3.52, so there's been progress. The recent price fluctuations are likely the result of summer blends coming online. The federal government has begun refilling the depleted strategic oil reserve, which also could have contributed to this week's increase in oil's price, not necessarily a function of the price at the pump.
Gas prices this week are generally higher across the country.
California is up 12 cents this week at $4.73, the priciest gas in the country. Oklahoma, at $2.64, is the cheapest, followed by Mississippi ($2.66), Texas ($2.72) and Louisiana ($2.73). Outside of Pennsylvania ($3.26) and Maryland ($3.17), New England and East coast states all range between $2.87 (New Hampshire) and $3.08 (Vermont). New York is $3.07.
Every state in the Southeast is under $3.00 except Florida, which jumped from $2.93 last week to $3.08 this Sunday. The Midwest is also elevated with Illinois at $3.43. Notably, Kansas ($2.81) is lowest. Missouri ($2.94), Nebraska ($2.96) and Ohio ($2.97) remained below $3.00, while the rest of the Midwest is above it. The West continues to have the highest prices. Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, at $4.14, up seven cents from last week. Oregon is at $3.77, Nevada ($3.72) and Arizona ($3.32) are next, all higher by a few cents this week. Idaho is experiencing a sharp increase, up to $3.30, while neighboring Utah is $3.13.
Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in at fewer states this week, with just 24 hitting the mark as opposed to 33 last week. Prospects for lower gas prices are roughly evenly matched against the same or higher prices. Concern over inflation has largely passed, with recession fear taking its place. A demand decline from recession and rising unemployment would fuel (pun intended) lower prices, but summer driving is a factor in the opposite direction.
On the supply side, the president's "drill, baby, drill" directive has been met with yawns and inconsistent support by oil producers who are reluctant to spend money on new projects when prices are, or could be, falling. While depressed oil and gas prices are a boon to the overall economy, they hurt profits at the major drillers and refiners, prompting a general wait-and-see attitude currently. When and if Trump's tariff regime becomes more clearly defined, producers will take appropriate actions.
Bitcoin
This week: $83,825.10
Last week: $85,049.05
2 weeks ago: $84,425.85
6 months ago: $65,544.22
One year ago: $69,666.93
Five years ago: $6,872.07
It was another rough week in the vacuous crypto-currency space. The leading edge of bitcoin took another step down the ladder toward incoherency and insolvency. Bitcoin and crypto in general is a massive fraud, likely perpetrated by the same kind of people who dreamt up the Federal Reserve and fiat currencies. On the fringes, so-called "stable-coins" may have some value, given they are actually backed by an acceptable currency.
Bitcoin, etherium, dogecoin, solana, etc., are fictions of financial imagination and are not likely to attain the level of acceptance and usage that would give credence to their claims of being the "ultimate world currency" or other such nonsense.
In terms of ownership, whales dominate. According to an article citing 2023 studies by the National Bureau of Economic Research and the University of Limerick:
According to blockchain analysts, approximately 6,952 BTC wallets control 58.21% of available bitcoins, which means about 0.01% of the total BTC holders have almost 60% of BTC's supply.
That suggests extremely uneven distribution along with potential for a 51% attack. Even so, such a large concentration of bitcoin holdings in so few hands and the implementation of bitcoin ETFs and other derivatives creates manipulation risks that - because of blockchain's inherent anonymity sturcture - can easily disrupt and distort the entire network without being evident.
The world is not ready for purely electronic money, though Europe, being the world's leader in stupid ideas, seems hell-bent on trying. The rest of the world can watch and laugh as Europe's economy descends into irrelevance.
Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4. There's almost no chance of it going back to that level. Falling to around $65,000-$70,000 before an even deeper plummet, seems the most likely direction, based on bitcoin's past history of crashes. Bitcoin's demise and those of the rest of the thousands of crypto-mintages is going to vaporize a large amount of what is perceived to be wealth. The worst part about bitcoin or crypto as an asset is that you can't even say one's wealth is "on paper" because any measure of crypto is electronic.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 88.74; last week: 90.96
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 3/2: $2,867.30
Gold price 3/9: $2,917.70
Gold price 3/16: $2,993.60
Gold price 3/23: $3,028.20
Gold price 3/30: $3,090.00
Silver price 3/2: $31.43
Silver price 3/9: $32.55
Silver price 3/16: $34.11
Silver price 3/23: $33.29
Silver price 3/30: $34.82
Gold set record after record last week and silver posted a 13-year high at $35.47 early Friday morning before being savaged on the COMEX the remainder of the day. Regardless, Friday's close was the highest in many long years, keeping pace with gold's stupendous advances.
Gold is up 18%, silver, 19%, year to date. Compared to stocks, precious metals are clearly the early winner of 2025 and the prospect for even higher prices is extremely positive.
One area in which Wall Street and the stock market crowd is blinded would be the continued emergence of BRICS and their international alliances. As negotiations over the future of Ukraine seem to be going nowhere, Russian president Putin last week avowed to continue pressing ahead with the BRICS agenda, which is for more unity of purpose and general well-being for all participants.
While Russia, China, India, et. al., are not openly proposing any imminent change to the global monetary system, it's useful to keep in mind that those three countries are the largest holders and users of gold (and silver, which should not be forgotten in the longer scheme) in the world. It would not be a stretch of the imagination to believe that the recent transfer of gold tonnage into the United States was a reaction to or an anticipation of BRICS leanings toward gold as at least a medium of international exchange.
The United States certainly does not wish to be shut out of a major trading bloc such as BRICS is and thus may be positioning itself to remain a key player in the re-alignment of global trade and finance. There is a strong tendency toward gold globally, and, although it's not being openly discussed in the mainstream media, behind the scenes there are governments and central banks wheeling towards an overhaul of world finance with gold as an integral part.
Continued momentum in the direction of BRICS and gold should not be overlooked as a key driver of the price of gold, which, outside the purview of the dying COMEX and LBMA, is setting new standards and prices on a regular basis in countries around the world.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
| Item/Price |
Low |
High |
Average |
Median |
| 1 oz silver coin: |
36.01 |
55.00 |
43.57 |
42.54 |
| 1 oz silver bar: |
37.99 |
49.98 |
43.86 |
44.25 |
| 1 oz gold coin: |
3,209.87 |
3,309.90 |
3,266.47 |
3,271.07 |
| 1 oz gold bar: |
3,200.00 |
3,269.90 |
3,231.81 |
3,229.04 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose sharply through the week, to $43.56, advancing $3.04 from the March 23 price of $40.52 per troy ounce.
WEEKEND WRAP
It has become rather obvious that stocks are correcting for overvalue as President Trump disrupts the world order with initiatives at home and tariffs abroad.
Financial talking heads may want to pin the coming recession on Trump, though it's hardly the president’s fault that the U.S. government has been a grifting, money-printing scam for the past 25 years, and especially the past four. President Trump is returning some degree of accountability to the federal government, dragging congress and the bureaucracy along, kicking and screaming.
In the longer term, Trump's policies are massively dis-inflationary. Ultimately, downsizing government, restoring balance to international trade and closing the U.S. borders should result in an era of prosperity. Further out, Trump is likely to attack the monetary system and the Federal Reserve by suggesting a return to some form of gold standard. Many individuals in his administration have a fondness for gold and Trump himself is a major gold bug.
The level of disruption Trump will foment in coming months is going to make the first weeks of his presidency look like a walk in the park.
At the Close, Friday, March 28, 2025:
Dow: 41,583.90, -715.80 (-1.69%)
NASDAQ: 17,322.99, -481.04 (-2.70%)
S&P 500: 5,580.94, -112.37 (-1.97%)
NYSE Composite: 19,270.30, -264.42 (-1.35%)
For the Week:
Dow: -401.45 (-0.96%)
NASDAQ: -461.06 (-2.49%)
S&P 500: -86.62 (-1.53%)
NYSE Composite: -148.01 (-0.95%)
Dow Transports: -291.31 (-1.96%)
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