Thursday, April 3, 2025

Trump's Tariffs Rattle Markets Globally; Europe Hard Hit; U.S. Stock Futures at Extreme Lows

For the last three sessions, the major indices have followed a nearly identical pattern, beginning with futures down, opening in the red, only to gain throughout the day and finish positive.

Making it four straight is going to take some doing after President Trump sent markets into a tailspin, announcing his worldwide tariffs Wednesday afternoon at a White House Rose Garden ceremony.

Essentially, Trump's tariffs - which became effective at midnight Wednesday - break down thusly:

  • Baseline 10% tariff on all imports
  • 25% tariffs on all auto imports
  • Reciprocal tariffs amounting to 1/2 of the tariffs the target nation imposes on U.S. imports.

Notable among trading partners hit with high tariffs are some of the largest. China: 34%; Taiwan: 32%; India: 26%; Japan: 24%; European Union: 20%.

Goods from Mexico and Canada that comply with the USMCA trade agreement between the three countries will largely remain exempt from tariffs, except for auto exports and steel and aluminum which fall under separate tariff policies.

Trump's bold agenda stunned markets worldwide, sending U.S. stock futures tumbling to extremes. Japan's NIKKEI fell 2.77% in Thursday trading. Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1.52%. Markets in China and India were much less affected, finishing the day with marginal losses.

European stocks are having trouble digesting the new trading paradigm.

England's FTSE 100 is down 123.24 points (-1.43%).

Germany's DAX is losing 444.98 points (-1.99%).

France's CAC 40 is down 214.56 (-2.73%).

EURO STOXX 50 has shed 141.99 points (-2.68%).

Euronext 100 Index is down 40.32 (-2.58%).

With less than an hour before the opening bell, the day is shaping up as a painful one all around.

WTI crude oil was hammered overnight and into the morning, down 6.64% at $66.95 per barrel. Gold is well off its recent highs, down $67 at $3,098.50 (-2.15%). Silver has lost more than 7% and is still dropping, around $32.15 per ounce.

While traders may have thought themselves devilishly smart by gaming stocks the first three days of the week, this looks like a condition of "buy the rumor, sell the news" writ large.

Stock futures are ugly: Dow: -1,204 (-2.83%), NASDAQ: -790 (4.00%); S&P 500: -196 (-3.44%).

It will be interesting and instructive to see if the futures result in sustained losses throughout the session or traders opt for bottom fishing at this watershed moment. With tariff trauma the order of the day, Friday's March Non-farm payrolls report from the BLS is looking to be somewhat inconsequential.

At the Close, Wednesday, April 2, 2025:
Dow: 42,225.32, +235.36 (+0.56%)
NASDAQ: 17,601.05, +151.16 (+0.87%)
S&P 500: 5,670.97, +37.90 (+0.67%)
NYSE Composite: 19,532.74, +134.46 (+0.69%)

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