Dow Looking at Best Monthly Performance of 2024 as November Trading Closes Out on Black Friday

Heading into Black Friday's short session (markets close at 1:00 pm ET), the Dow Jones Industrial Average was on track for its best monthly performance of the year, up 7.08% since October 31, rising from 41,763.46 to Wednesday's close at 44,722.06.

Dow stocks, widely believed to be among the best companies in America, have returned more than 18% this year, but are still playing catch-up against the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, which are up 26.48% and 29.08%, respectively.

Many of the 30 companies that make up the Dow return dividends, though yields are generally well below the 10-year note, which has fluctuated between 3.63% and 4.70%, and has been heading lower through November, currently yielding 4.25%. For example, Goldman Sachs (GS) dividend yield is 1.98%; McDonald's (MCD), 2.40%; IBM (IBM), 2.94%, and Home Depot, 2.11%. American Express (AXP), which is up more than 60% this year, carries a dividend of $2.80, delivering a paltry 0.92% yield.

So, if investors aren't looking for high dividend yield, what the current run-up in Dow stocks suggests is that investors are seeking to reduce risk to some degree, switching out holdings of high-flying tech stocks to more steady performers on the Dow, taking outsized profits before year-end.

The so-called "flight to quality" may indicate some of the bigger funds are expecting a downturn in stocks subject to speculation that may have gotten ahead of themselves. Price/earnings ratios on Dow stocks are generally lower than those of companies like Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet, parent of Google (GOOG), or Tesla (TSLA).

This late-stage trend bears watching into 2025 and the many changes in economic structure and government policies that are expected.

As the markets await the opening bell for the final trading day of the month, futures are pointing to a somewhat moderate opening, with S&P and NASDAQ futures nearly flat and Dow futures up 58 points at 9:00 am ET.

With U.S. markets closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, gold and silver were priced higher on the COMEX when it reopened in the evening, sending gold to highs of $2,685 and silver as high as $31.34.

WTI crude continues to test resistance around $70, hitting a low of $68.24 early Friday morning.

At the Close, Wednesday, November 27, 2024:
Dow: 44,722.06, -138.25 (-0.31%)
NASDAQ: 19,060.48, -115.10 (-0.60%)
S&P 500: 5,998.74, -22.89 (-0.38%)
NYSE Composite: 20,209.82, -9.64 (-0.05%)

Thin Trade Expected Prior to Thanksgiving; GDP Steady at 2.8%; Dell, Workday, HP Lower After Earnings; Gold, Silver Rebound

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Trading is expected to be thin on Thanksgiving get-away day, as most people are more interested with travel plans and holiday festivities than scrounging for gelt in the stock market.

The government released its second estimate of third quarter GDP as unchanged, the US economy growing at an annualized rate of 2.8%.

At 10:00 am ET, the Fed's BFF inflation gauge, Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) for October is due out. Economists expect annual "core" PCE - which excludes food and energy - to have clocked in at 2.8% in October, up from 2.7% in September. The indicator will have a strong impact on whether the Fed decides to cut interest rates again in December when the FOMC meets on the 17th and 18th.

Following the release of Fed minutes Tuesday afternoon, which suggested some members of the committee were considering slowing the rate of cuts, possibly pausing in December, a hotter-than-expected PCE would lean towards betting against a rate cut in December and possibly even into January's meeting.

The market is unsure how Trump's policies will affect the economy, so there's some reluctance to go "all in" on trades though the past few weeks have seen more investor euphoria than reticence.

A few more companies revealed third quarter earnings after Tuesday's close, these among the last before fourth quarter results in January.

Shares of Dell (DELL) tumbled 12 percent after announcing results that didn't match expectations, the company missing estimates on total revenue but beating estimates of $2.06 EPS, reporting $2.15. Q4 revenue projection of $24-$25 billion fell short of analysts' $25.57 billion estimate, based on slowing PV sales.

Rival computer maker, HP Inc. (HPQ) was also sent lower after hitting EPS and revenue targets, but citing tariffs as a headwind to future profits. Shares were down seven percent pre-market.

Autodesk (ADSK) narrowly beat estimates for the quarter but investors chose to take the money and run, sending shares down eight percent prior to the opening bell. Autodesk was up more than 35% year-to-date prior to the announcement.

Workday (WDAY) was another tech wreck, with shares sliding 12 percent after beating top and bottom line but issuing weak forward guidance.

Crowdstrike (CRWD) went counter to the morning's trend, beating on revenue ($1.01 billion) and EPS of 3 cents, both better than year-ago results. The stock is down slightly, less then two percent.

Retailers Nordstrom (JWN) and Urban Outfitters (URBN) both beat earnings estimates. Nordstrom was seen lower by about two percent, but investors were cheering on Urban Outfitters, which reported record sales and an upgrade from Citi. The stock was up nearly 15% in pre-market trading.

Gold and silver are continuing to rebound after being dragged lower on Monday.

Happy Thanksgiving!

At the Close, Tuesday, November 26, 2024:
Dow: 44,860.31, +123.74 (+0.28%)
NASDAQ: 19,175.58, +120.74 (+0.63%)
S&P 500: 6,021.63, +34.26 (+0.57%)
NYSE Composite: 20,219.45, -0.90 (-0.00%)

FOMO Returns, Just in Time for the Holidays; Stocks Ramp, Oil, Gold, Silver, Crypto Lower

Get today's complete article and access years of daily commentary at Downtown Magazine's Money Daily

Having gained more than 2500 points since November 5, it's apparent that investors are queueing up to buy dividend-yielding stocks on the Dow Jones Industrial Average in anticipation of lower interest rates on treasuries and other fixed-income products.

The Dow has out-performed the S&P, NYSE Composite, and NASDAQ, gaining nearly six percent over the period. The S&P has added 3.51%, NASDAQ, 3.32%, and the Composite, 3.87%.

Most of the money moving into stocks is coming from fund managers, as inflows have been outstanding since the election of Donald J. Trump as president. Wall Street has fond memories of Trump's policy framework from his first term, from 2017-2020, discounting the pandemic disruptions. Monday's gains were also largely tied to Trump's choice of Scott Bessent as the nominee for Treasury Secretary. He's a seasoned Wall Street professional with plenty of solid connections in the business and financial communities.

Throwing some shade on the euphoric mood is the geo-political situation. With the Biden administration still in charge of policy for the time being, their actions of late - especially green-lighting Ukraine to employ long-range missiles against Russia - have left many with the impression that they're escalating the situation rather than calming it, as Trump has promised to do.

Beyond the end-of-the-world theatrics, however, the stock market rally is now more than 13 months long, with indications that a year-end rally is a likely event.

Companies reporting prior to the open on Tuesday are offering a mixed bag, sending Dow futures lower and NASDAQ futures higher.

Shares of Burlington (BURL) are down two percent as the company's same-store sales projections failed to materialize.

Macy's (M) was supposed to report this morning, but has delayed their announcement pending an investigation of an employee hiding more than a suspected $150 in expenses over a series of quarters.

Dick's Sports Goods (DKS) reported an exceptional third quarter, citing back-to-school sales above expectations. Revenue for the quarter was $3.06 billion, beating analyst estimates of $3.03 billion. Adjusted EPS of $2.75 topped estimates for $2.69. Shares are soaring, up nearly 10 percent in pre-market trading.

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) had a solid quarter, with sales up 14.4% year on year to $1.21 billion. Non-GAAP EPS of $2.50 topped analyst estimates of $2.35.

On the downside, Kohl's (KSS) saw same-store sales disappoint, with net sales down 8.8% year-over-year to $3.507 billion, missing the consensus of $3.638 billion. Comparable sales for the quarter decreased 9.3%. Earnings per share w=of 20 cents was far below estimates for 28 cents. The stock is down nearly 20% prior to the opening bell.

Best Buy (BBY) reported earnings of $273 million, or $1.26 per share, for the quarter ended Nov. 2, a slight improvement from $263 million and $1.21 per share in the year-ago period. Sales fell to $9.45 billion from $9.76 billion in the year-ago quarter. EPS missed expectations for $1.30 per share. The stock is down marginally prior to the open.

After the close, Dell (DELL), HP Inc. (HPQ), Autodesk (ADSK), Workday (WDAY), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Nordstrom (JWN), and Urban Outfitters (URBN) release quarterly results.

On Monday, precious metals were once again hit with profit-taking, sending gold lower by more than $100. After closing at $2,743 per ounce on Friday, COMEX traders sent gold down to as low as $2,634 when trading opened Tuesday morning in the Pacific region after a mammoth drop during the open session in the U.S.

Silver was also sent lower, from $31.85 to $30.55. Both metals are recovering this morning, with gold at $2,656 and silver at $31.00.

Crude oil also took a beating on Monday, with WTI hitting a low of $68.64. Oil continues to suffer around $70/barrel. Between the supply glut and Trump's expectations for more drilling, price declines await.

Bitcoin, which recently ran up above $99,000, was hammered down on Monday with losses added overnight. The crypto king hit $91,583 this morning.

The message is becoming quite clear. Buy stocks. Sell everything else.

At the Close, Monday, November 25, 2024:
Dow:44,736.57, +440.06 (+0.99%)
NASDAQ: 19,054.84, +51.19 (+0.27%)
S&P 500: 5,987.37, +18.03 (+0.30%)
NYSE Composite: 20,220.36, +96.91 (+0.48%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Stocks, Gold, Silver, Oil Power Ahead; Thanksgiving Week Looking Bullish; Market to Measure Black Friday, Rate Cut Projections

Get today's complete article and access years of daily commentary at Downtown Magazine's Money Daily

Hurtling headlong into the holidays, stocks staged a hard rally that lifted all indices. The most obvious signal that rigging and inside baseball are still alive and well on Wall Street came from the Dow Jones Industrials, which managed to add 1000 points over the last three days of the week, reaching a new all-time closing high in the process.

Not as widely mentioned, the NYSE Composite Index also galloped ahead to a fresh record close, finishing at 20,123.45 on Friday. The small and mid-cap exchange is up a solid 19.59% for the year.

Precious metals rebounded with gusto, bitcoin continued to soar toward $100,000, and even oil got some bids. Investing in just about anything paid off pretty well this week and overall year-to-date.

As election excitement faded back toward the usual bickering, partisan squabbling, and in-fighting that characterizes the U.S. political system, investors seemed to sense that the status quo wouldn't be easily overwhelmed by the upstart Trump team members. Matt Gaetz, Trump's in-your-face pick for Attorney General only had to spend one day meeting with unsupportive Senators to withdraw his name from the nomination. Other nominees remained ready to testify and fight the good fight.

Quietly, late Friday, Trump's team put up Scott Bessent as the nominee for Treasury Secretary, a choice that will find friendly supporters on capitol hill.

Bessent, 62, is the founder of hedge fund Key Square Capital Management and a former professor at Yale University. Openly gay, Bessent had connections to Soros Fund Management at various times since 1991. While those credentials are sure to be applauded by Democrats, many true Trumpsters did not warm well to the choice. As head of one of the most impactful departments in Washington, Bessent's selection appears almost an appeasement to the left. None dare criticize too harshly a member of the alternative, especially one with approval from top Wall Street managers, which Bessent has apparently won over. The nominee will sail through the advise and consent process with flying colors.

On the bright side, ceding the position of the nation's financial overseer to a person who's neither an alumnus of Goldman Sachs or the Federal Reserve is a step in the right direction. Bessent has expressed favorable views toward deregulation, deficits, government downsizing, and mass deportation of illegal aliens as preferable to the costs of increased crime and expense in allowing them safe harbor.

A number of people in Trump's camp, including billionaire Elon Musk, preferred Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick to head Treasury. Lutnick, who is co-chair of the Trump transition team, has been chosen for Commerce Secretary, a position of vital importance that will be tasked with implementing Trump's tax ad tariff agenda.

The choices for Treasury and Commerce appear to strike a reasoned balance for U.S. economic interests.

Stocks

The Shiller PE ratio remains near the third highest all-time level, reading 38.07 at the week's end. Anticipating a holiday upswing and a Santa rally, markets seem to see no impediments to bubbling up even higher. Bullish sentiment is extremely high and markets overbought, though that does not appear to matter.

Tuesday will be the most impactful day for earnings, with retail and tech stragglers reporting.

In the morning, prior to the opening bell, are Burlington (BURL), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Kohl's (KSS), Macy's (M), Best Buy (BBY), and Analog Devices (ADI). After the close, Dell (DELL), HP Inc. (HPQ), Autodesk (ADSK), Workday (WDAY), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Nordstrom (JWN), and Urban Outfitters (URBN) release quarterly results.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
10/18/2024	4.92	4.82	4.73	4.65	4.45	4.19
10/25/2024	4.89	4.79	4.73	4.68	4.51	4.29
11/01/2024	4.75	4.74	4.61	4.53	4.42	4.28
11/08/2024	4.70	4.69	4.63	4.53	4.42	4.32
11/15/2024	4.70	4.67	4.60	4.52	4.44	4.34
11/22/2024	4.72	4.67	4.63	4.53	4.46	4.42

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
10/18/2024	3.95	3.86	3.88	3.97	4.08	4.44	4.38
10/25/2024	4.11	4.05	4.07	4.15	4.25	4.58	4.51
11/01/2024	4.21	4.18	4.22	4.30	4.37	4.68	4.57
11/08/2024	4.26	4.18	4.20	4.25	4.30	4.58	4.47
11/15/2024	4.31	4.27	4.30	4.36	4.43	4.70	4.60
11/22/2024	4.37	4.32	4.30	4.35	4.41	4.67	4.60

Treasuries were barely moved over the course of the week and there doesn't appear to be any significant catalyst one way or the other. Flat will be the structure until the Fed decides its next policy move on December 17-18, the last FOMC meeting of 2024.

Currently, opinions are split over another 25 basis point drop in the federal funds rate or none at all at the upcoming meeting, though it's almost too obvious to point out that a cut of 0.25% on the very shortest end would accomplish normalization and upsloping across the yield curve, a likely desire of the Fed and Chairman Powell prior to President Trump's inauguration.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil prices broke its downward momentum, closing at $71.81 on Friday, up sharply from $66.88 at last week's New York close, a powerful move of more than seven percent. Oil traders have ceased fretting over the Middle East, which seems to be somewhat subdued, for now, and instead focused on escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, as the U.S. green-lighted Ukraine's use of long-range missile strikes into Russia.

ATACMs and Storm Shadow missiles aiming at targets in Russia's Bryansk and Kursk regions fell short of achieving their goals according to Russian military sources and President Putin himself.

Russia's response to the attacks was to strike a military-industrial complex near Dnipro using a new intermediate-range ballistic missile called "Oreshnik", which means hazel tree in Russia, along with stern warnings to NATO countries from Putin and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

Around the attacks and subsequent Russian retaliation hysterical Western media were warning about World War III and the ultimate use of nuclear weapons. Since there have been no cities incinerated and turned to ashes so far, the doomsday clock moving ever closer to midnight is not something most people are very concerned about, and with good reason. Any nuclear exchange would likely result in enormous, horrifying damage and loss of life and is not something sane people would even consider. Of course, for the time being, the U.S. and Europe are being led by individuals who may come up a bit short on the sanity test, so, the waiting-out time until January 20 of next year, at least, may remain in a somewhat precarious condition.

That increases the likelihood of a near-term rise in oil prices, though by how much remains to be seen. There's still the supply-demand issue of too much oil production and slowing demand, from both a seasonal and cyclical perspective. If nuclear options are eventually employed, the price of home heating fuel or petrol for automotive use would be among the least of people's worries. Thus, gains in WTI and Brent crude the past week are probably little more than knee-jerk responses to more military posturing by NATO and Russia.

Gasbuddy.com reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.04 a gallon, down a penny from the prior week.

California continues to be the price leader, at $4.41 a gallon, down marginally from the prior week.

Pennsylvania prices continue to head lower, at $3.24, with the Keystone State holding the high price in the Northeast, approaching the lowest level in three years. New York was slightly higher, at $3.13. Connecticut ($3.05) and Massachusetts ($3.01) were slightly higher, but Maryland slipped six cents to $3.12 per gallon. Prices in the Midwest continue to decline, with Illinois continuing lower ($3.15).

Fuel prices in Oklahoma ($2.46) continue to be by far the lowest in the nation, quite a bit lower than the #2 spot, held by Mississippi, at $2.59. Following are Texas ($2.61), Arkansas ($2.62), Louisiana ($2.64), and Nebraska ($2.68). Florida ($3.03) remains the Southern outsider, with all Southeastern states well below $3.00, including Georgia ($2.92) and North Carolina ($2.86).

Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in at least 29 U.S. states, mostly in the Southeast and Midwest, but now spreading west, with Montana and Wyoming joining the sub-$3.00 party.

Western states are still the highest overall. Arizona ($3.20) was up five cents on the week, with Oregon at $3.55, Nevada at $3.67, and Washington at $3.95, leaving only California above $4.00. Utah ($3.04) and Idaho ($3.09) were both lower on the week, remaining well below summer prices and apparently offering gas under $3.00 in some locales.

Bitcoin

This week: $97,283.64
Last week: $90,205.13
2 weeks ago: $79,690.52
6 months ago: $67,851.91
One year ago: $37,807.90
Five years ago: $7,333.47

Bitcoin remains atop the asset leaderboard, up a stunning 120% year-to-date and more than 40% since the November 5 U.S. elections, edging ever-so-close to $100,000, topping out at $99,436 this week.

A move beyond $100,000 could spur another spurt forward. Trump's selection of Scott Bessent to lead the Treasury Department and the announcement this week that SEC Chairman Gary Gensler would retire from the position upon Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025 are positive developments for the crypto universe.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 86.13; last week: 84.65

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 10/25: $2,754.60
Gold price 11/1: $2,745.90
Gold price 11/8: $2,691.70
Gold price 11/15: $2,567.40
Gold price 11/22: $2,743.20

Silver price 10/25: $33.88
Silver price 11/1: $32.58
Silver price 11/8: $31.42
Silver price 11/15: $30.33
Silver price 11/22: $31.85

After suffering through two weeks of election euphoria headlined by a stronger dollar, precious metals made a comeback over the past week, with gold prices up more than four percent while silver lagged, but still moved forward, posting a gain of two percent.

In dollar terms, gold was up $176, silver ahead by $1.52.

Silver remains narrowly ahead of gold year-to-date, 32.69% to 32.02%. Silver's slowness to recover moved the gold:silver ratio up to 86.13, the highest in five weeks, though still not in a "sell gold, buy silver" condition.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	30.00	45.00	39.09	38.50
1 oz silver bar:	37.00	48.68	40.82	39.60
1 oz gold coin:	2,815.20	2,929.58	2,891.55	2,903.26
1 oz gold bar:	2,817.20	2,888.95	2,837.75	2,829.21

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) gained ground this week, to $39.50, an improvement of $1.48 over the November 17 price of $38.02 per troy ounce.

Premia on silver and gold continue to reflect sufficient demand. Buyers seem to be unconcerned about the recent pullback. India's festival season and the November-March wedding season, in addition to Western holidays, followed by Chinese New Year bodes well for gold near term. Silver continues to be more suppressed on the Comex. Viewed more as an industrial metal than for investment purposes, the influence of large foreign buyers, especially India and China, has to factor into price calculations, though silver will ultimately align with gold. albeit at a gold:silver ratio that is, by historical standards, an extreme aberration.

WEEKEND WRAP

A truncated holiday week will be punctuated by U.S. market closure on Thursday (Thanksgiving) and a short session on Black Friday. Indications are bullish for stocks and commodities and stable for fixed income.

At the Close, Friday, November 22, 2024:
Dow: 44,296.51, +426.16 (+0.97%)
NASDAQ: 19,003.65, +31.23 (+0.16%)
S&P 500: 5,969.34, +20.63 (+0.35%)
NYSE Composite: 20,123.45, +155.15 (+0.78%)

For the Week: Dow: +851.52 (+1.96%)
NASDAQ: +323.53 (+1.73%)
S&P 500: +98.72 (+1.68%)
NYSE Composite: +477.68 (+2.43%)
Dow Transports: +139.00 (+0.81%)

Dow Posts Big Gains, Stocks Look for Positive End to Solid Week; Gold, Silver Higher; WTI Crude Stuck Near $70

Get today's complete article and access years of daily commentary at Downtown Magazine's Money Daily

While the NASDAQ languished after less-than-spectacular forward guidance from Nvidia (NVDA) - which is now the poster child for the term "priced to perfection" - Dow Industrials took up market slack and powered ahead, ending the day just 427 points (less than one percent) from the all-time closing high of 44,293.13 (November 11, 2024), powered by gains in IBM (IBM) and Salesforce (CRM).

The day's gains on the Dow turned the week completely around for the index of 30 blue chip stocks. After Wednesday's close, the Dow was down around 35 points. Thursday's effort changed that small loss into a large gain.

That helped it catch up to the NASDAQ, which is ahead by 292 points on the week, heading into Friday. The S&P also shrugged off the losses from last week and has posted a positive number every day this week, up 78 points through Thursday's closing bell.

A pair of mid-tier retailers posted third quarter results after the close on Thursday, both companies reporting a strong quarter and superior guidance heading into the holiday shopping season.

The Gap (GAP), with a major online presence accounting for 40% of all sales, and more than 3,600 stores in 40 countries, showed net income of $274 million, translating into diluted earnings per share of 0.72. Those numbers compared favorably with year-ago figures of net income of $218 million and EPS of 0.59.

President and CEO, Richard Dickson exuded confidence, saying, "holiday is off to a strong start and we remain focused on executing with excellence in the fourth quarter. Our performance year-to-date gives us the confidence to raise our full year outlook for sales, gross margin and operating income growth."

Shares of The Gap were up nearly seven percent on Thursday and are indicated up another 17% heading into the Friday cash session. The stock, which has a very low beta, a PE ratio hovering around 10, and a 52-reek range from 18.34 to 30.59, closed Thursday at 22.04.

Shares of Ross Stores (ROST) were also being favored after the company posted net earnings of $489 million and EPS of $1.48, raising its full-year outlook to $6.10 to $6.17 per share. The stock was up more than 2.5% on Thursday and is tacking on another seven percent prior to Friday's opening bell.

Year ago returns were EPS of 1.33 on net of $447 million.

The mood wasn't quite so cheery over at Intuit (INTU), which topped estimates for the quarter, but issued lowered guidance, with some trepidation over fears of the incoming Trump administration offering a free federal government tax reporting app or simplifying the tax code to a point at which Intuit's software would be unnecessary. The company reported earning of 2.50 per share, ahead of estimates for 2.36.

Shares are down nearly three percent an hour prior to the opening bell. Intuit is a prime example of just how overpriced tech stocks have become. Yahoo Finance shows a PE ratio of 66 on this 30-year old company. Normally, such high PE ratios are reserved for startups expected to grow at exponential levels, but these days, mature companies like Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) are sporting PE ratios in the 30s and higher.

Elsewhere, gold continues to rally steadily following a post-election dive, hitting $2,712 overnight. Silver, which has lagged its more expensive cousin, seems to be perking up, continuing to trend close to $32 per ounce.

The rally in WTI crude oil was short-lived, topping out at $70.65 per barrel on Thursday, but slipping back below $70 Friday morning.

Futures are pointing to an even open, with equities close to the UNCH line.

At the Close, Thursday, November 21, 2024:
Dow: 43,870.35, +461.88 (+1.06%)
NASDAQ: 18,972.42, +6.28 (+0.03%)
S&P 500: 5,948.71, +31.60 (+0.53%)
NYSE Composite: 19,968.30, +219.17 (+1.11%)

Stocks Appear Losing Direction after Last Week's Losses and Minor Gains This Week; Bitcoin Approaches $100,000

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Everything is coming up roses on Wall Street Thursday morning. Even companies with net income down nearly 50% (Deere & Co, DE) are trending higher.

Topping the earnings calendar was Nvidia (NVDA), releasing third quarter results after the close Wednesday. The chip-maker earned 81 cents per share, beating estimates of 75 cents. The company's forward guidance fell a bit short of sky-high expectations, however, sending shares lower by one to two percent prior to the opening bell.

Not that a percent here or there changes any of the calculus for owning shares of a company with a $3.6 trillion market cap. Nvidia stock has gained more than 200% this year.

BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) reported fiscal third-quarter earnings of $155.7 million. Earnings, adjusted for one-time gains and costs, came to $1.18 per share, handily topping estimates and well ahead of he same period in 2023, of 98 cents. Investors are rewarding the company's performance with a stock boost of seven to eight percent in pre-market trading.

Deere & Company (DE), maker of farm and garden equipment, saw earnings fall sharply but still beat easy estimates.

For the quarter ended October 27, 2024, Deere reported net income of $1.245 billion, or $4.55 per share, topping the analyst estimate of $3.89 per share. Revenue for the quarter came in at $11.14 billion, above the consensus estimate of $9.23 billion. Both figures represent substantial year-over-year declines, with net income down 47% and worldwide net sales and revenues decreasing 28% compared to the same quarter last year. In the same quarter in 2023, Deere earned $8.32 per share. The decline to $4.55 should be a warning sign of a company losing its mojo.

Nonetheless, shares are rising by two percent in pre-market trading.

Over the past five days, gold has rallied nearly four percent, up more than $100, to $2,670. Silver continues to be suppressed, gaining lass than two percent, currently trading on the COMEX around $31.50, though it has been as high as $31.95.

For whatever reason, bitcoin is off the charts, closing in on $100,000, having surpassed $98,000 this morning. Since the U.S. election, November 5, bitcoin has gained more than 40%.

Even oil has caught a bid, despite the third straight week of inflows according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Russia-Ukraine tensions are cited as the reason WTI crude is above $70 this morning. Not to throw shade on the utterly corrupt oil futures market, but there's an enormous global glut of crude that a few missile strikes aren't going to change. Besides, with Trump's inauguration just 60 days away, market dynamics are likely to veer radically, with the price of oil almost certain to decline.

There's still more than an hour before the cash market opens, so much of what's happened overnight could easily be discounted. U.S. and European markets have been a complete joke for years. That's something that is probably not going to change any time soon. However, those with an investment horizon longer than a few months might see signs of disinflationary trends headed their way. Trump's term of office, extending through 2028, is no doubt going to be very disruptive.

With that in mind, prices for everything from toilet paper to Teslas may be radically realigned. This is by no means a reccomendation to short anything, but caution should be top of mind over the next two months. The weeks before and immediately after Trump's inauguation may be a period of heightened volatility, owing to the paradigm shifts expected in how the U.S. conducts business with the rest of the world.

Dow futures an hour prior to the open are leading the advance, up 150 points, while NASDAQ, noting the weakness in NVDA, are up the least, less than 20 points to the good. S&P futures are up around 12 points, after last week's losses still shying away from the record high of 6,001 on November 11.

At the Close, Wednesday, November 20, 2024:
Dow: 43,408.47, +139.53 (+0.32%)
NASDAQ: 18,966.14, -21.33 (-0.11%)
S&P 500: 5,917.11, +0.13 (+0.00%)
NYSE Composite: 19,749.13, +30.88 (+0.16%)

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