The BLS announced this morning the Non-Farm Payroll data for November, delayed from its originally-planned release date of December 5th. The Bureau, always consistently off by 20,000 or more, said that 46,000 jobs were created during the month, but also, in their press release, mentioned that while October non-farm payroll data was, um, out there somewhere, they were certain of a decline of 162,000 government jobs in October, as some federal employees who accepted a deferred resignation offer came off federal payrolls.
Because of the government shutdown from October 1 through November 12, the BLS claims to not have October data, but, by the same excuse, can account fully for November, a questionable claim. Considering the overall record of BLS reporting, these numbers can hardly be trusted. Suffice it to say that general employment in the United States is declining, though by how much is still uncertain.
While the BLS makes comparisons to September data, they do admit that the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 22,000, from -4,000 to -26,000, and the change for September was revised down by 11,000, from +119,000 to +108,000. This is also somewhat confusing, as the country loses jobs in August and gains over 100,000 in September. Probably the best explanation is teachers going back to work in September.
As far as Wall Street is concerned, a weak or weakening labor market is probably good for some stocks, particularly those who laid off or fired employees as those heavy costs are no longer a burden to profits. That might be good short term, but many times, when businesses shed employees it's not because they were unnecessary or not pulling their weight, but because business was slowing. In the meantime, eagerly awaited is third quarter GDP is still inestimable, until the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) gets its act together. That agency issued the following:
SUITLAND, Md. – The following updates to BEA’s post-shutdown economic release schedule are currently available:Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Updated Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised) will be released on Jan. 22, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. This report will be the equivalent of a third estimate of quarterly GDP, replacing Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised), originally scheduled for release on Dec. 19.
BEA will release two estimates of third-quarter GDP, instead of the usual three estimates over three months:
The advance estimate of third-quarter GDP, originally scheduled during October, was canceled.
Dec. 23: Initial estimate of third-quarter GDP, including the preliminary estimate of corporate profits (replaces the typical advance and second estimates).
Jan. 22: Updated estimate (replaces the typical third estimate).
GDP (Advance Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2025 will be rescheduled. These data were originally scheduled for release on Jan. 29, 2026. Sufficient source data will not be available in time for the original release date.
Gross Domestic Product by State and Personal Income by State, 3rd Quarter 2025 will be released on Jan. 23, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. These data were originally scheduled for release on Dec. 22.
BEA’s economic release schedules for 2025 and early 2026 will continue to be updated as information becomes available.
OK, so, instead of the usual delay of nearly a month after the end of the quarter, the first glimpse offered will be on December 23. The third quarter ended September 30, prior to the shutdown, so the numbers should all be there. Since it's government work, as usual, it takes and extra two months to get all the numbers lined up correctly. This is another report that probably will be off by orders of magnitude. Treasury Secretary Bessent assures everybody that it's going to be close to three percent.
Those analysts making predictions for 2026 are going to have to trust at least some of the government's releases. For sure, most of them will see the S&P gaining about 20% over the course of the year, since that's the easiest of predictions and won't ruffle too many feathers.
As the government flips and flops around, the regularly-scheduled body slams to the price of gold and silver continue, for whatever reasons. Just before the opening bell for stocks, silver was priced at $63.60 and gold at $4,324.70, which is just about $30 short of gold's all-time high. Both precious metals were pushed lower overnight, but have bounced right back. There seems to be considerable pushback against the short-sellers on the COMEX, likely by Asian interests who have had just about enough of physical commodities being priced by derivatives.
In any case, the suppression of gold and silver seems to be not working as well as previously. Both metals are at or near all-time highs. The best the riggers at the COMEX, LBMA, and ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund) can hope for is to delay the inevitable rise of precious metals or at least slow it down. The whole operation seems rather pointless and has probably become quite expensive. It wouldn't be a surprise to see a bank or two take on heavy losses and maybe even go belly up.
Not to worry, the Fed is buying up treasury bills at $40 billion a month, so they surely have enough fiat to bail out whatever losses the bullion banks may be incurring.
With the stock markets in the U.S. already underway for Tuesday, the major indices are flat-lining. Perhaps the most amusing development is in the crypto universe, where most of the popular coins are suffering continued losses. Bitcoin is the primary sufferer, hitting lows in the mid-$85,000 range overnight. Solidly in a bear market, the near-to-mid-term resting place for bitcoin figures to be around $35,000, give or take $10,000.
That is just how bitcoin rolls (over).
At the Close, Monday, December 15, 2025:
Dow: 48,416.56, -41.49 (-0.09%)
NASDAQ: 23,057.41, -137.76 (-0.59%)
S&P 500: 6,816.51, -10.90 (-0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 22,030.02, +25.67 (+0.12%)
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