US equities mostly returned to the plus side after taking a day off on Monday. The Dow nearly erased yesterday's decline and closed within 47 points of 13,000, though the NYSE Composite and S&P 500 experienced marginal declines.
Dow 12,953.94 +34.54; NASDAQ 2,524.54 +0.87; S&P 500 1,480.41 -0.52; NYSE Composite 9,648.50 -12.06
The fuel for the rally (pun intended) was a dip in the price of crude, which slipped $1.31 to close at $64.58. While the relief was welcome, it was hardly enough to move gas prices or the pessimism felt by most drivers in the US who are paying close to - and in some cases, such as on the West coast, more than - $3.00 per gallon for regular unleaded.
In a related story, British Petroleum (BP) reported first quarter profits 17% lower than in the same period a year ago. The British concern saw 1Q profits of $4.66 billion, or 1.35 per share. BP made $5.62 billion or 1.54 per share in the first quarter of 2006. There was nary a tear shed for the still-exceedingly profitable company.
Other commodities were effected as well, with gold and silver taking tumbles. Gold lost $6.50 while silver declined 27 cents. The metals have stymied investors with more than a year of rangebound trading. Both recently closed near benchmarks but failed to sustain the momentum and have pulled back considerably.
Declining issues once again surpassed advancers by a 5-4 margin, and there was a slight shift in the new high - new low ratio. A total of 373 issues recorded new highs while 97 (the most in more than a week) companies set new low marks. While the high-low mantra may be more tail wagging the dog than vice versa, the indicator could be signaling that the recent run-up in stocks has lost momentum and another correction mechanism is about to be put into play.
Stocks are, as it is, near record levels and the sustainability of high share prices is still in doubt in some circles. While the indices may not immediately react, especially in the middle of a pretty good earnings season, but within weeks (and possibly coinciding with the Fed meeting of May 9) there could be a pullback of some consequence.
Most of the movement will be a function of sentiment rather than fundamentals, however, as the market has shown great resiliency in the face of some troubling trends, most notably in the housing sector, which continues to suffer.
According to CNN.com, Sales of existing homes fell 8.4% to an annual rate of 6.12 million in March from February's 6.68 million rate, the National Association of Realtors said. It was the biggest one-month drop since January 1989.
Lower prices for homes may be a problem for sellers, but it has to be good news for buyers, though there aren't many out there. With banks tightening their qualifications, fewer Americans can afford to buy a home today than last year. The other side of the equation is that of forced selling at a price lower than one paid in the previous six boom years.
The entirety of the housing and finance sector may be somewhat of a conundrum for the Fed, alternatively weighing higher energy and food prices (inflation) with lower base housing costs (deflation). There may still be some pressure for the Fed to ease rates in order to spur the housing industry, though that kind of thinking is more wishful than practical.
Bernanke and friends will probably take the easy route of holding the course and keeping rates unchanged at the next meeting as hiking rates could send stocks into a tailspin. Of course, there are many who contend that the Fed is in denial over inflationary pressure and that a short series of rate hikes would be the best medicine.
In the meantime, corporate profits continue to pour in mostly on the positive side providing plenty of rationale for continuation of the rally.
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Monday, April 23, 2007
Manitoba Calling?
Wedged between the provinces of Ontario and Saskatchewan with a large Northern frontage on beautiful Hudson Bay, Manitoba is a naturalist's paradise. The province is the easternmost of Canada's three prairie provinces, replete with rolling hills, verdant forests and abundant wildlife.
Known as the land of 100,000 lakes, Lake Winnipeg, Lake Winnipegosis and Lake Manitoba are the three largest lakes. Forests of pine, hemlock and birch cover northern Manitoba with the Churchill, Nelson and Hayes Rivers flowing north into Hudson Bay.
All of these natural features make Manitoba one of Canada's most amenable vacation and getaway destinations. You can sell your Manitoba cottage free or find cottages and vacation homes for sale or rent, from high end, fully-featured second homes to condos, timeshares and mobile homes.
The name Manitoba comes from a Cree name meaning "the place where the spirit (manitou) speaks." At just over 250,000 square miles (a little larger than Texas and Oklahoma combined) a little more than 1 million people call Manitoba home, making it one of the more sparsely yet still habitable areas in the Northern Hemisphere.
The animal populace consists of large game, such as deer, elk, moose, caribou, black bear, and a wide variety of ducks, geese and other fowl. The lakes of Manitoba are world-renouned as some of the best fishing spots in the world.
For retirement or simply getting away from it all you can find the great properties - or sell yours. Maybe this custom built cottage on Lake Winnipeg is right for you.
Known as the land of 100,000 lakes, Lake Winnipeg, Lake Winnipegosis and Lake Manitoba are the three largest lakes. Forests of pine, hemlock and birch cover northern Manitoba with the Churchill, Nelson and Hayes Rivers flowing north into Hudson Bay.
All of these natural features make Manitoba one of Canada's most amenable vacation and getaway destinations. You can sell your Manitoba cottage free or find cottages and vacation homes for sale or rent, from high end, fully-featured second homes to condos, timeshares and mobile homes.The name Manitoba comes from a Cree name meaning "the place where the spirit (manitou) speaks." At just over 250,000 square miles (a little larger than Texas and Oklahoma combined) a little more than 1 million people call Manitoba home, making it one of the more sparsely yet still habitable areas in the Northern Hemisphere.
The animal populace consists of large game, such as deer, elk, moose, caribou, black bear, and a wide variety of ducks, geese and other fowl. The lakes of Manitoba are world-renouned as some of the best fishing spots in the world.
For retirement or simply getting away from it all you can find the great properties - or sell yours. Maybe this custom built cottage on Lake Winnipeg is right for you.
We Will Drown in Barrels of Oil
The Dow streak was halted after three days of record closes on Monday as oil and gas shock hit the markets. Even the most well-heeled brokers and traders on Wall Street don't like gas at $3.00 a gallon, and for good reason. The high price of petro-energy threatens everything. The US economy - and to a large extent that of much of the civilized world - depends on fuel, not only for cars, but shipping, heating, cooling, industrial production and as a base element in many products.
The price of a barrel of light sweet crude ran up $1.78 to close at $65.89. The average price of a gallon of regular gas in the US, according to the most recent Lundberg Survey reached $2.87, and it's going higher.
Dow 12,919.40 -42.58; NASDAQ 2,523.67 -2.72; S&P 500 1,480.93 -3.42; NYSE Composite 9,660.56 -36.78
The big oil companies will be out with first quarter earnings reports this week. British Petroleum reports tomorrow, ExxonMobil on Thursday, Chevron on Friday. Expect gasps from the public, groans and grumblings from the monied class, and, of course, not a peep of derision from the complaisant wastrels otherwise known as our representatives in the US Congress. Big oil takes from all, but only greases the palms of legislators and others in the governing caste.
Nothing good can come from higher fuel prices unless you have a vested interest in the procurement, production or sale of those commodities. If anything can derail the economy all by itself, it's high energy costs, which have been a noticeable drag for the past two years at least.
If you're smart, you've already sold the SUV. If you're really smart and have some semblance of an environmental conscience, you've taken to
It's all about the oil, the supposedly dwindling resource, even though almost nobody ever mentions the ongoing exploration, drilling and pipelining in North African nations by more than 70 companies. The Hubbard's Peak supply-demand scenario so frequently cited by the industry is a sham, an ersatz delusion perpetrated by the wealthy on the average and the poor. The more hand-wringing over global warming, the greater the demand for alternative fuels, the higher the price is likely to go. It's the unstoppable force of wealth, greed and power run amok.
To illustrate the illusory aspect of the oil scarcity argument, consider, on a day that oil rose nearly 3%, gold and silver - two elements which actually are scarce, barely budged. Silver rose 10 cents while gold lost $1.60 in value. Oil isn't scarce. The world is swimming in it and the oil barons are literally laughing all the way to the bank in armored limousines.
Volume on the exchanges today was close to average, with losers holding sway over winners by a slight margin of 5-4. New highs continue to flourish, with 474 of them as opposed to just 72 stocks making new lows. That imbalance is, and has been at the high range of historical charts.
If oil continues to rise in price, expect the market to react negatively, regardless of the quality of earnings being reported. Everyone and their brothers know that super high gas and oil prices are unsustainable in the long run and threaten to put an abrupt end to what has been a healthy run-up.
The price of a barrel of light sweet crude ran up $1.78 to close at $65.89. The average price of a gallon of regular gas in the US, according to the most recent Lundberg Survey reached $2.87, and it's going higher.
Dow 12,919.40 -42.58; NASDAQ 2,523.67 -2.72; S&P 500 1,480.93 -3.42; NYSE Composite 9,660.56 -36.78
The big oil companies will be out with first quarter earnings reports this week. British Petroleum reports tomorrow, ExxonMobil on Thursday, Chevron on Friday. Expect gasps from the public, groans and grumblings from the monied class, and, of course, not a peep of derision from the complaisant wastrels otherwise known as our representatives in the US Congress. Big oil takes from all, but only greases the palms of legislators and others in the governing caste.
Nothing good can come from higher fuel prices unless you have a vested interest in the procurement, production or sale of those commodities. If anything can derail the economy all by itself, it's high energy costs, which have been a noticeable drag for the past two years at least.
If you're smart, you've already sold the SUV. If you're really smart and have some semblance of an environmental conscience, you've taken to
OilVoice contains in depth profiles of 562 Oil and Gas Companies!.
walking or riding a bike - or motorized scooter - for short trips under one mile. Being that America has become the land of the fat, stupid and lazy, there aren't that many more bikes or scooters out there. We're doomed to drown either in debt, the cost of gas or from the coastal high tides of Global Warming.It's all about the oil, the supposedly dwindling resource, even though almost nobody ever mentions the ongoing exploration, drilling and pipelining in North African nations by more than 70 companies. The Hubbard's Peak supply-demand scenario so frequently cited by the industry is a sham, an ersatz delusion perpetrated by the wealthy on the average and the poor. The more hand-wringing over global warming, the greater the demand for alternative fuels, the higher the price is likely to go. It's the unstoppable force of wealth, greed and power run amok.
To illustrate the illusory aspect of the oil scarcity argument, consider, on a day that oil rose nearly 3%, gold and silver - two elements which actually are scarce, barely budged. Silver rose 10 cents while gold lost $1.60 in value. Oil isn't scarce. The world is swimming in it and the oil barons are literally laughing all the way to the bank in armored limousines.
Volume on the exchanges today was close to average, with losers holding sway over winners by a slight margin of 5-4. New highs continue to flourish, with 474 of them as opposed to just 72 stocks making new lows. That imbalance is, and has been at the high range of historical charts.
If oil continues to rise in price, expect the market to react negatively, regardless of the quality of earnings being reported. Everyone and their brothers know that super high gas and oil prices are unsustainable in the long run and threaten to put an abrupt end to what has been a healthy run-up.
Saturday, April 21, 2007
Dow Erupts to New Record; NASDAQ at 6-Year High
Up nearly 150 points within the first ten minutes of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average eclipsed yesterday's record by a staggering sum, closing within hailing distance of the 13,000 mark at 12,961.98, up 153.35 points at day's end.
Dow 12,961.98 +153.35; NASDAQ 2,526.39 +21.04; S&P 500 1,484.35 +13.62; NYSE Composite 9,697.34 +95.65
Trade was heavily unbalanced to the buy side. Advancing issues led decliners by nearly a 3-1 margin while new highs popped to 507 against merely 65 new lows.
Possible catalysts include Google's stellar earnings report, in which the search and online ad company blew away analyst estimates along with year-ago figures. It's no surprise that the nation's leading technology company would lead to a significant breakout in all sectors, though there have been solid earnings all around.
Friday morning could have been simply an expression of extreme amounts of money not willing to sit idle any longer. Volume was easily the heaviest of the week with heavy money entering right at the open.
The big moves in equities came despite a lack of cooperation from commodities. Oil continues to be a thorny issue, rising $1.55 to close at $63.38. Gold was up $7.50 to $695.80, and silver gained 22 cents to end at $13.96 per ounce.
Perhaps the stock gains and commodity motion were nothing more than adjustment to the value of the US currency, which continues to slide against most other world monies. The US$/Euro ratio is close to $1.36 with no pullback in sight under current policies. The Fed's reluctance to tighten the credit tap is making the currency worth less, so stocks continually have to gain just to keep pace. In the long run, it's a no win situation which needs to be rectified some time soon.
Dow 12,961.98 +153.35; NASDAQ 2,526.39 +21.04; S&P 500 1,484.35 +13.62; NYSE Composite 9,697.34 +95.65
Trade was heavily unbalanced to the buy side. Advancing issues led decliners by nearly a 3-1 margin while new highs popped to 507 against merely 65 new lows.
Possible catalysts include Google's stellar earnings report, in which the search and online ad company blew away analyst estimates along with year-ago figures. It's no surprise that the nation's leading technology company would lead to a significant breakout in all sectors, though there have been solid earnings all around.
Friday morning could have been simply an expression of extreme amounts of money not willing to sit idle any longer. Volume was easily the heaviest of the week with heavy money entering right at the open.
The big moves in equities came despite a lack of cooperation from commodities. Oil continues to be a thorny issue, rising $1.55 to close at $63.38. Gold was up $7.50 to $695.80, and silver gained 22 cents to end at $13.96 per ounce.
Perhaps the stock gains and commodity motion were nothing more than adjustment to the value of the US currency, which continues to slide against most other world monies. The US$/Euro ratio is close to $1.36 with no pullback in sight under current policies. The Fed's reluctance to tighten the credit tap is making the currency worth less, so stocks continually have to gain just to keep pace. In the long run, it's a no win situation which needs to be rectified some time soon.
Thursday, April 19, 2007
Dow Higher 6th Straight Session; Google Beats Street
The Dow stocks added nearly 5 points on top of yesterday's record close to set another all-time high, but the rest of the US indices moved in the opposite direction, once again indicating the thin nature of the current rally.
After the close, internet behemoth Google reported 1st quarter profit gains of 69% over the same period a year ago. The company posted net income of $3.18 a share, up from $1.95 a share in 2006, on sales of $2.53 billion, a cool billion more than in the first quarter last year.
Shares of Google were down 4.36 during the day, but after the announcement, shares soared more than 12 points in after-hours trading.
Dow 12,808.63 -4.79; NASDAQ 2,505.35 -5.15; S&P 500 1,470.73 -1.77; NYSE Composite 9,601.69 -33.18
The Dow stocks actually showed a slight bias to the buy side, with 17 up, 12 down and 1 (Disney) unchanged. All of the moves were fractional. Boeing was the biggest loser, -0.89, followed closely by Exxon-Mobil -0.74. Honeywell was the winner on the day, gaining 0.85.
As has been the case for the past two days, declining issues outnumbered advancers, with the margin widening today to a nearly 2-1 ratio. New highs continue to come down as well, at 287 today, versus a mere 84 new lows.
The conduct of the market is somewhat suspect, especially considering that volume was the best of the week. There just doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm in the trading even as oil took a large hit today, down 1.30 to close at $61.83 per barrel.
Gold and silver both fell, again tantalizingly close to break out levels. Gold lost $5.00 to 688.30, while silver dropped 24 cents to $13.74. The metals have been stuck in a range for well over a year after hitting significant tops in 2006. Only the aspect of serious inflation - which the financial press refuses to report - seems to be enough of a catalyst to move them higher.
As for stocks, the Dow may be serving as a last vestige of worn-out money. Investors seem to have weighed the risks and are neither sold on the robustness of the world economy nor the chance that the Fed will remain on hold much longer.
The sub-prime mortgage blow-up and declining house values nationwide are also a cause for concern in the bigger picture. But the canary in the mine shaft is still breathing, so stocks continue - without much direction - drift aimlessly. The Dow's recent comeback is probably more reaction than rally, as investors re-upped when shares were cheaper a few weeks ago.
Without a significant earnings surprise - positive or negative - this market has all the features of a ship adrift on calm seas. As any good sailor knows, however, optimal conditions don't last forever and storms may arrive without much warning. Caveat Emptor.
After the close, internet behemoth Google reported 1st quarter profit gains of 69% over the same period a year ago. The company posted net income of $3.18 a share, up from $1.95 a share in 2006, on sales of $2.53 billion, a cool billion more than in the first quarter last year.
Shares of Google were down 4.36 during the day, but after the announcement, shares soared more than 12 points in after-hours trading.
Dow 12,808.63 -4.79; NASDAQ 2,505.35 -5.15; S&P 500 1,470.73 -1.77; NYSE Composite 9,601.69 -33.18
The Dow stocks actually showed a slight bias to the buy side, with 17 up, 12 down and 1 (Disney) unchanged. All of the moves were fractional. Boeing was the biggest loser, -0.89, followed closely by Exxon-Mobil -0.74. Honeywell was the winner on the day, gaining 0.85.
As has been the case for the past two days, declining issues outnumbered advancers, with the margin widening today to a nearly 2-1 ratio. New highs continue to come down as well, at 287 today, versus a mere 84 new lows.
The conduct of the market is somewhat suspect, especially considering that volume was the best of the week. There just doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm in the trading even as oil took a large hit today, down 1.30 to close at $61.83 per barrel.
Gold and silver both fell, again tantalizingly close to break out levels. Gold lost $5.00 to 688.30, while silver dropped 24 cents to $13.74. The metals have been stuck in a range for well over a year after hitting significant tops in 2006. Only the aspect of serious inflation - which the financial press refuses to report - seems to be enough of a catalyst to move them higher.
As for stocks, the Dow may be serving as a last vestige of worn-out money. Investors seem to have weighed the risks and are neither sold on the robustness of the world economy nor the chance that the Fed will remain on hold much longer.
The sub-prime mortgage blow-up and declining house values nationwide are also a cause for concern in the bigger picture. But the canary in the mine shaft is still breathing, so stocks continue - without much direction - drift aimlessly. The Dow's recent comeback is probably more reaction than rally, as investors re-upped when shares were cheaper a few weeks ago.
Without a significant earnings surprise - positive or negative - this market has all the features of a ship adrift on calm seas. As any good sailor knows, however, optimal conditions don't last forever and storms may arrive without much warning. Caveat Emptor.
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