Stocks Tack on Gains Ahead of Fed

US stock investors couldn't contain their enthusiasm on Monday, bidding up shares in just about every sector, despite revelations of further write downs in the unfolding subprime/credit/SIV spectacle. Overriding every bit of bad news is the hope of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve which will announce their decision Tuesday at 2:15 pm.

Prior to markets opening in the US, European giant UBS announced that it was taking one of their structured investment vehicles back onto their books, effectively resulting in a $10 billion loss, potentially wiping out all of the bank's 2007 profits.

Dow 13,727.03 +101.45; NASDAQ 2,718.95 +12.79; S&P 500 1,515.96 +11.30; NYSE Composite 10,104.42 +80.84

As the market opened, mortgage insurer MBIA (MBI) was halted with news pending. When the news broke, it was ugly: the company's losses for the 4th quarter would likely exceed those reported in the 3rd; but, there was rampant speculation that the company would received $1 billion in emergency funding from Warburg Pincus.

Interestingly, when the stock opened at 11:00 am, it was more than $6 higher than the Friday close (30.00), and traded as high as $38.19.

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UBS traded higher as well, as news that the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation would invest some $12 billion for a significant stake in the operations. Both stocks finished the day well into the green: UBS (UBS 51.66, +1.18), MBIA (MBI 33.95, +3.95).

The trade of late has to be either guided by the most ill-conceived investment strategy ever, or the big money is betting that all will be better soon. While the past few weeks have borne witness to principally bad news, stocks on the Dow have risen nearly 1000 points in just the past ten sessions since the bottom of 12,743.44 on November 26. More and more economists and analysts are predicting at least a mild recession in 2008, the housing solution provided by the White House is little more than a stalling effort, and over eight years there has been no progress in dealing with the twin giant deficits in import-export trade and the federal budget.

Still, investors continue to pour money into stocks. The current rally seems to be nothing more than a last-ditch effort to engender some kind of confidence in the mere fact that stocks are rising. If there ever was a condition of the tail wagging the dog, this is certainly it and, as with all efforts both desperate and foolhardy, this one will end badly as well.

Sadly, the US equity markets, once the proudest, strongest, best-managed and assiduously-regulated, have come to more resemble a bad poker room in an after-hours casino. What the banks, the media and the government aren't telling us is that these bad sub-prime mortgages and their attendant Structured Investment Vehicles (SIVs) and Special Purpose Entities (SPEs) are full of other bad and questionable debts as well.

If it is indeed the case that the bankers have blundered once again, then all of this mad buying begins to make sense. There's not only a credit crunch in which the banks are afraid to lend money to each other, much less private individuals and corporations, but the crisis of confidence is spreading into the stock markets as well.

Most of the money used to buoy stocks over the past ten sessions was more than likely their own, or that of the central bank, the Fed, or central banks worldwide. We are staring into the abyss of bad fiscal management, poor governing and lies, lies and more lies piled on top of lies, deception and at the bottom of it all, false, fiat currency.

What else would explain the recent meteoric rise of stocks or the gains today by UBS and MBIA? The entire market is being cooked to a hard-edged, crusty, inedible, well-done stick of jerky. It will be tough to chew on this and will likely take years to digest. The current genius is to keep the game going until the November elections and then dump the entire mess into the laps of unsuspecting Democrats who are sure to add the executive branch to their lock-up on the legislative. Joy to the world.

On the day, advancing issues once again raced ahead of decliners, by a 3822-2525 margin. New highs expanded their advantage over new lows, though not by much, 225-183.

The day's bright spot came surprisingly from the oil futures market, where the price continued to slide, down another 42 cents to $87.86. Gold soared another $13.30 to $813.50 and silver gained 35 cents to $14.85.

With tomorrow's expected Fed rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points the two-week-long party may be coming to an abrupt end. If the Fed decides on merely a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate, stocks should sell off through the end of the week and into the next. The only remaining driver for stocks for the rest of the year would then be retail sales, and unless they're surprisingly good, the final two weeks of 2007 could be an unwinding experience.

NYSE Volume 2,863,184,250
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The Party... and the Rally May be Over

Equity investors took an early exit on Friday after the government's non-farm payroll data failed to inspire any new-found confidence in the economy, nor in the prospect of a 50 basis point rate cut next week by the Fed.

The November labor data showed a gain of 94,000 new jobs, less than the break-even of roughly 150,000, but better than the estimate of 80,000. So, these numbers suggest that the economy is in OK shape, but that the job market may be shrinking a bit relative to natural population growth.

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The figures were good enough, however, to blunt any talk of a 50 basis point cut when the Fed meets on Tuesday next week. 25 basis points may be all they can muster, if that. Presumably, rate cuts mean the economy is weak, but to Wall Street it means more nearly-free money to toss around. When the Fed announces either no rate cut or just 25 BPs at exactly 2:15 on December 11, this current rally will be officially over and investors will resume worrying about the credit squeeze and subprime mortgage fallout.

It could happen sooner, on Monday, as savvy investors are wont to get out of the way when there's a rush for the exits. After a more than 800-point rally on the Dow and 100 on the S&P since November 26, the rally was a combination of hype and hope, and now the hope (rate cut) is gone. With more sorry numbers expected from the retail sector, the hype will also disappear soon. Happy Holidays.

Dow 13,625.58 +5.69; NASDAQ 2,706.16 -2.87; S&P 500 1,504.66 -2.68; NYSE Composite 10,023.58 -6.57

Trading was especially light for a Friday, as decliners took a razor-thin edge over advancers, 3187-3160, but new highs finally exceeded new lows, barely, 214-212. This marked the first win for new highs since October 31, a span of 25 trading sessions. After such a spectacular run-up, this distribution indicates there's either a load of undervalued stocks or we're still in the throes of a long-term bear market.

It's likely to be the latter. With the Dow just about 500 points from its all-time high, one would expect more new highs than what's being recorded. The new lows are likely to expand slightly for the remainder of the month, then really add to their ranks once earnings reports being to flow in January.

As if taking its queue from the stock market, oil went for a dive on Friday, dropping $1.95 to $88.28. Gold and silver followed suit, with gold down $6.90 to $800.20 and silver losing 12 cents to end the week at $14.51.

Some of the nations largest brokerages kick off earnings season a little early - next week - and the outlook is not very rosy. So, get those fingers warmed up to hit the sell button. Monday could be somewhat of an unwelcome surprise to a week that is fraught with potential pitfalls.

NYSE Volume 3,145,841,500
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Straight Up, Non-Stop Stock Buying

Since the ephemeral bottom of the market on November 26, the Dow has, like an old, single uncle gorging on multiple holiday repasts, put back on 876 points. In just eight short sessions, US blue chips have availed themselves an average of nearly 110 points per day.

What changed? Attitude, and little else.

While there were some remarkable productivity numbers thrown out on Wednesday (pretty much more fudged government numbers) and an early indication that November job growth was going to register as nothing short of spectacular, the market blithely overlooked November retail figures which showed a spotty and rather lackluster performance by some of the major participants.

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Instead, investors tripped over each other rushing to buy stocks, especially on Thursday, when the Bush administration announced its plan to help homeowners avoid foreclosure. The plan is fairly laughable, extending the payment period on the interest-only portion of option-ARM loans to five years, from the customary two. The plan merely delays the inevitable, allowing more time for people who shouldn't be living in overbuilt, expensive homes to remain in them.

But what the government plan really does is bail out the banks. They simply do not want all those toxic loans exploding all over the place. Bankers are obviously in a position in which they are willing to accept a little than lose a lot, and that's troubling. The weight of the sub-prime mess threatens the very lifeblood of the global financial system and the bankers have been scared to the point of renegotiation with what are basically nothing but deadbeat borrowers.

So, it's a little bit funny how investors react. It's almost like a self-fulfilling prophecy. If stocks are going up, everything must be A-OK, and they'll continue to go up. For the better part of the past two weeks, they have, and tomorrow's gently-massaged non-farms payroll report for November will indeed supply icing for the top of the cake. Or, if you so please, froth on the head of the elixir they're all drinking down at Wall St. and Broad.

Dow 13,619.89 +174.93; NASDAQ 2,709.03 +42.67; S&P 500 1,507.34 +22.33; NYSE Composite 10,030.15 +142.55

For the second straight session, advancing issue pummeled decliners, 4804-1513. New highs haven't yet gotten past new lows - an edge held by the lows since October 31 - but they're close. New lows carried the day, 260-214. With everything set up nicely for tomorrow's employment numbers, this indicator should turn over, vacillate for about a week, and then head back to dominance by the new lows.

As Christmas rallies go, this one is a little early, but don't be surprised if the Dow and other indices reach new highs within the month. January, however will be another story. The current uptrend is unsustainable, especially in light of the 4th quarter warnings already circulating from the Fed, individual companies and elsewhere.

While stocks were soaring again, the oil merchants figured to get in on the action, hoisting the price for a barrel of crude $2.74 to $90.23. Apparently, the oil futures traders figure that with all the extra money floating around this time of year, consumers might as well pay more for gas, home heating fuel, etc.

Gold gained $3.40 to $807.10. Silver added 17 cents to $14.63. Everything was up today. Doesn't that make you feel good? No need to feel any pain. It's the holiday season, after all. Deck the halls with ticker tape.

NYSE Volume 3,575,942,250
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Stocks Chilled by Resistance

Stocks fell broadly on Monday, the first day of trading in the final month of 2007. If this is any indication of how trade will behave in December, we may be looking forward to a somewhat unhappy New Year.

On the Dow, resistance levels at or around, 13,500, were tested on Friday and shied further away on Monday, towing all other indices along to the downside. Continued fears of a full-blown recession in 2008 contributed to a quiet continuation of the trend lower. Market sentiment is decidedly defensive, citing unwinding problems stemming from the sub-prime mortgage and associated credit crises.

Dow 13,314.57 -57.15; NASDAQ 2,637.13 -23.83; S&P 500 1,472.42 -8.72; NYSE Composite 9,811.86 -44.99

Overhanging everything, as it is the Christmas season, are concerns that holiday shopping may fall short of expectations. With an additional weekend of shopping time as compared to last year, retailers may be forced to pull the trigger on markdowns sooner rather than later this time around.

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Retailers are necessarily nervous, as data on consumer spending and incomes, released last week, was hardly encouraging. Shoppers may have less in their wallets than last year and may also be waiting for deals equal to or better than were available on Black Friday.

It bears watching the major retailers to see which of them, if any, begin discounting earlier in the season than normal. Later this week, on Thursday, Wal-Mart and Target release November same-store sales figures, which will give some indication of what December may bring, but already analysts are wondering whether last week's good news (sales up as much as 8% at major retailers against last year) was due more to price (and profit) slashing following the Thanksgiving feast.

Whatever the case, investors voted by sending shares lower in advance of the numbers. Declines outweighed advances on Monday, 4013-2391, while new lows maintained their long-standing edge over new highs, 313-134, with the margin increasing over Friday's figures.

Commodities gained on the day, with oil up 60 cents to $89.31, gold higher by $5.60 and silver up five cents. Oil traded as low as $87.15 during the day, but rose as traders saw a continuation of high demand through the holidays and the possibility of a production increase by OPEC nations about a 50/50 proposition.

It could turn out to be a slow week on Wall Street with the really important numbers coming out on Thursday and Friday, when the government reports non-farm payroll numbers.

Hurry up and wait.

NYSE Volume 3,293,912,500
NASDAQ Volume 1,994,717,625

Stocks Finish Week Higher on Bernanke Blather

Wall Street has become Disneyland.

Despite economic reports that generally signal a continued downturn through the 4th quarter and into 2008 - Personal Income was up just 0.2% while consumer spending increased by the same amount, but the core PCE deflator was also up 0.2%, with the year-over-year increase at 1.9%, within the Fed's "comfort zone."

Despite numbers begging to be interpreted as benign, the words "alert" and "flexible", when uttered yesterday by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, somehow signaled to investors that the Fed would cut rates again at their December 11 meeting.

Like I said, Disneyland. When you wish upon a star...

Dow 13,371.72 +59.99; NASDAQ 2,660.96 -7.17; S&P 500 1,481.14 +11.42; NYSE Composite 9,856.84 +83.27

Additionally, Construction Spending fell 0.8% in October, adding more impetus to the already dismal housing picture and indicating that economic woes are spreading into the commercial sector.

Advancing issues led decliners, 4054-2373, but new lows continued to hold sway over new highs, 239-172, though the gap has narrowed considerably over the past four sessions.

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Crude fell below the $90 mark, dropping $2.30 to $88.31. Precious metals continued to retreat from recent highs. Gold was down $13.20 to $789.10, while silver declined 28 cents to end the week at $14.17. The drops in commodities are beginning to make sense against the backdrop of a inadequately-growing US economy.

Slower growth, or even recession, here, is going to crimp demand for all raw materials. Forget inflation. We're staring straight at Japan-style deflation.

So, that makes stocks go up? The Dow registered a gain of 628 points over the past four sessions, mostly on speculation that the Fed would lower interest rates to avert a recession. And that, dear reader, is why they call trading equities "speculative." Sometimes, everybody's wrong. And this time, it sure looks like they are.

Pass the fairy dust, Tinkerbell. I'm ready for another ride on the Magic Mountain.

NYSE Volume 4,335,490,000
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