What Are They Thinking: Mark Hulbert & Richard Russell Call Bull

Generally speaking I have great respect for Richard Russell, author of the Dow Theory Letters and a little less respect for analyst and financial newsletter critic Mark Hulbert. Both are probably right more than they are wrong, but I'm wondering what they're thinking after reading Hulbert's recent commentary on MarketWatch in which he spells out Russell's case that despite the recent downturn from August of last year to the present, we are still in a primary bull market.

Let's not forget that Russell called the turn from Primary Bull to Bear back in 2007, judging by the various slips and falls of the Dow from August through December, and he certainly looked correct when stocks slumped badly in January.

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But, in his most recent note, he repudiates that call and says that stocks have been in a primary bull market since the early '80s and that this recent pullback and the dotcom fade of 2000-2002 were "important corrections."

Hulbert, who apparently keeps a bull as a pet, seems to agree with him, though he's shady on the subject, which is why I have less respect for him - he seldom takes positions.

Of course, Russell's been wrong before, and he could be now, but betting against a recovery and new record highs on the Dow and other indices between now and 2010 smacks of good, old-fashioned American optimism. I side more with the Elliott Wave theorists, who keep reminding us of 17-year cycles. If we take the early 80s as the starting point of the bullish cycle, 17 years gets us to roughly 2000, the date of the dotcom implosion, and would put us presently near the middle of a bearish cycle.

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Evidence points in that direction, as even the gains from March 2003 to August 2007 can be viewed as merely an upturned pennant movement when measured in Euros rather than US Dollars. In other words, the Bear remained in place all through the last four years of bullishness.

The dueling theories are enough to make one want to give up trading altogether and take on some action at the race track. It's over quickly and the returns (and losses) are immediate and large.

Richard Russell and my respect for him aside, I still believe he was right on his initial call last November when he said a primary bear market had presented itself. The transports confirmed the fact and the January selloff bolstered the opinion. Recent movement suggests we're in a bit of a fix and resolution will not be quick nor complete.

Stocks remain at relatively high values, the dollar at the opposite, and gold's rise gives credence to the bear case. My own primary indicators tell me that the markets are about to roll over again, and, despite late-day tape-painting by the usual suspects (the Fed, PPT, Goldman Sachs, et. al.), they are rolling over to the negative, today marking the second consecutive down day for all four major indices.

Dow 12,527.26 -49.18; NASDAQ 2,322.12 -26.64; S&P 500 1,354.49 -11.05; NYSE Composite 9,074.82 -75.81

Declining issues took the prize over gainers by a much wider margin than the headline numbers indicate, 4497-1709, and the new highs-new lows indicator has rolled right over, as predicted, after just two days of more new highs than lows. On Wednesday, the new lows came out on top, 140-101. Volume was the best it has been in a week.

The Dow was hard hit on the day. Only 9 of the 30 components registered gains.

Two particular stocks grabbed attention on the day. Boeing (BA) announced further delays in the production of their 787 Dreamliner, though the company said it would not negatively affect 2008 earnings. Investors apparently threw caution to the wind, boosting the stock nearly 5%, up 3.58 to 78.60 at the close. A shorting opportunity if I ever saw one.

United Parcel Service (UPS), the world's largest shipping company, took a 3.74% hit after trimming its first quarter outlook, citing higher fuel costs and slack demand as the major culprits. Shares lost 2.74 to close at 70.57 on nearly triple the average volume.

Oil rose to a new all-time high of $112.20 before pulling back a bit, closing at $110.87, up $2.37. The metals continued their strong rebound, with gold up $20.00 to $938.00 and silver adding 48 cents to close at $18.20. Volatility, it appears, is not confined to just stocks. Prices are jumping around in commodities, bonds, and currencies as well. Nobody seems to have a grip on any market currently.

Once again, we're looking at tomorrow's same-store sales figures for insight into the plight of the consumer. The numbers should be telling and a couple of retailers could warn, possibly one highlighted in my Fearless Stocks and Options Advisory Newsletter.

NYSE Volume 3,475,696,500
NASDAQ Volume 1,922,355,500

Dull and Duller

The markets spent another day rolling over and hitting the snooze button in advance of the deluge of 1st quarter earnings reports due out beginning next week.

Adding to the market's slumbering condition is the general observation that it's currently overbought and hovering near recent highs though news flows continue to accentuate the negative.

Dow 12,576.44 -35.99; NASDAQ -16.07; S&P 500 1,365.54 -7.00; NYSE Composite 9,150.63 -4.09

Today's trading was somewhat of a turn, however, as all the major indices ended in the red for the first time since last Tuesday's general punch up. Declining issues held sway for a change over advancers, 3604-2613, and new lows regained the advantage over new highs, 112-75.

As noted here earlier this week, it was expected that new highs would not long outstrip new lows, and today the results point toward further deterioration. Any upward momentum is being met with massive resistance at various levels, and capitulation could occur at any moment, depending upon the severity of the news cycle. With earnings reports on the horizon, investors are showing extreme trepidation.

Alcoa (AA) officially kicked off earnings season, checking in with a quarter of .44 per share, four cents below expectations. The stock was left unpunished, losing only 0.26 to 37.18. More selling is likely as the week progresses and investors decide that there is no safe sector, not even in the relative stability of materials.

Thursday is likely the day of reckoning for the markets as retailers report March same-store sales. Until then, the paucity of news or economic reports is keeping traders on the sidelines and out of harm's way.

NYSE Volume 3,606,652,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,681,638,750

Consumer Credit Reading Stalls Market

Wall Street was giddy this morning after hearing the Washington Mutual, another beleaguered big-name bank, was about to receive a fresh $5 billion in equity funding from outside investors. The greed patrol on the street absolutely loves fresh cash. They seethe over it like wolves drooling over the blood of an exquisite kill.

With that, the Dow was quickly in the green and up by over 100 points before 1:00, taking the rest of the indices along for the ride. Hitting a wall of resistance in the 12,700-12,750 range, the markets cooled in the afternoon and really took a hit around 3:00 when news crossed the wires that February consumer credit fell to $5.2 billion from a prior reading of $10.3 billion. Expert economists expected a reading of $6.0 billion.

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Not only was consumer credit off dramatically, it was lower than even the more bearish forecasts, giving more credence to the argument that tight credit conditions are spilling over from banking and big business, all the way down to the basic consumer level. Banks aren't loaning money and consumers are loathe to borrow. Caught in the middle are businesses which need financing in order to expand, launch new products, and, in the worst of cases, meet payroll.

That last item - borrowing to meet payroll demands - is going to become a major worry over the next few months should the general credit conditions persist. Companies short on cash are going to be hard-pressed to find funding sufficient to meet current obligations. It's barely on the radar now, but watch for small firms laying off employees and some even shutting down, citing lack of capital or access to it as the main cause for failure.

In other business news, Yahoo head Jerry Yang and Microsoft CEO Steve Balmer spent the weekend tossing barbs back and forth about Microsoft's $31/share buyout offer. Yang insists he's open to negotiation, but at a higher price. Balmer believes Yahoo's value continues to deteriorate and says that if their original offer isn't met within three weeks, the company will embark upon a hostile takeover which would last months and could wreck Yahoo whether successful or not.

The general thinking among investors is that Yang is holding out against the odds, calling Balmer's bluff, and seeking somewhere in the range of $38-40 per share. Wishful thinking on Yang's part, likely, as Balmer and Microsoft have a cash hoard that's the envy of the world and with it could swallow Yahoo whole.

Time seems to be running out on Yang and Yahoo's Board of Directors along with Balmer's patience. A hostile bid would sink the stock into the low 20s and possibly lower. Yahoo ended the day down 66 cents at 27.70.

Dow 12,612.43 +3.01; NASDAQ 2,364.83 -6.15; S&P 500 1,372.54 +2.14; NYSE Composite 9,184.72 +27.19

Getting back to macroeconomic issues, volume on the major exchanges was dull for the third straight session due to a number of factors. First, the market has been witness to a remarkable gain of late and is technically overbought. Second and third, there are few economic reports on which to trade and corporate earnings are just around the corner. Investors are taking a wait-and-see approach as first quarter results dribble out this week and then explode over the next two.

Gainers showed a slight edge over losers on the day, with 3306 stocks advancing and 2986 losing value. New highs bettered new lows for the second straight session, 138-95, a two-day trend that's not likely to last through the week.

Oil gained again, adding $2.86 to close at $109.09. (Keep driving, Americans!) The metals seem to have caught lightning in a bottle again, as gold rose $13.60 to $926.80 and silver pushed ahead 37 cents to $18.12 the ounce.

It's been a very sluggish time over the past three sessions and a pervasive sense of foreboding is enveloping parts of the street. While few still doubt that the US is headed for recession if not already in one, investors are still wary of capital and credit markets which have completely seized up over the past six months.

With home equity largely tapped out, consumers turning to credit cards to meet general obligations is not a healthy sign. Slowing demand will kill corporate profits and stop the wheels of industry (what's left of them in the USA) from turning altogether.

The economy is still in a vulnerable position and signs of recovery remain an illusion. Sooner or later, investors will begin tapping out and the great deluge of selling which began last August and gained tempo in January will resume, resulting in a large thud as traders' jaws hit the floor simultaneously. Forewarned is forearmed.


NYSE Volume 3,700,481,750
NASDAQ Volume 1,778,706,250

Stocks in Limbo

With the release of the monthly non-farms payroll report for March on Friday morning, investors were struck with yet another sign of a failing US economy as US employers handed out 80,000 pink slips during the month.

It was the third consecutive monthly decline in the US labor force and solidifies the argument that the economy is already in a recession, the worst aspects of which have yet to be felt.

In response, stocks fell out of the gate, but recovered, and by midday were sporting a healthy gain. Late in the day, however, a reality check sent the Dow back below the break even line, though the other indices managed to carve out modest gains.

Dow 12,609.42 -16.61; NASDAQ 2,370.98 +7.68; S&P 500 1,370.40 +1.09; NYSE Composite 9,157.53 +16.89

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There was more evidence of a change in direction as advancers held a slim edge over declining issues, 3312-2862. And for the first time since early December, new highs edged new lows, 127-89. That is a significant change, but it's not likely to last. The last time there were more new highs than lows, it was for only two days before the markets beat a hasty retreat.

Considering the depth of the banking and housing crises and the unmistakable signs of recession, stocks have barely budged and are floating on rarefied air with unrealistic valuations.

Those seeking a quick turn-around for the US economy are in for a surprise. These job losses are spreading and are likely the tip of an unemployment iceberg that's about to bust a big hole in the titanic US revenue machine. The economy is stagnant at best and the solutions by the government are sorely lacking in scope and vision.

Oil priced another $2.40 higher, to close at $106.23, while gold tacked on $3.60 to $913.20 and silver added 28 cents to $17.76.

Wall Street and most investors are in serious denial. The market is sure to hand them some sad news shortly. Tax time looms, always a down period for the markets.

NYSE Volume 3,703,311,250
NASDAQ Volume 1,981,811,875

Stocks Poised for a Fall

The follow-up to Tuesday's massive rally has been less than impressive. For the past two days, stocks have wallowed around the flatline in anticipation of Friday's March non-farm payrolls report.

That report is due out prior to the opening of the markets and analysts are not very encouraged following Thursday's reading on initial jobless claims for the week ended March 29, which jumped to 407,000 from 369,000, and was the largest number of claims in 2 1/2 years.

Forecasts are for a loss of between anywhere from 50,000 to 70,000 jobs in the domestic workforce, and that comes on the heels of three consecutive months of similarly poor results. With the economy shedding jobs in such an expedient manner, the levitation act that the Fed has orchestrated on Wall Street is unlikely to last.

Dow 12,626.03 +20.20; NASDAQ 2,363.30 +1.90; S&P 500 1,369.31 +1.78; NYSE Composite 9,140.64 +36.18

Advancing issues edged decliners, 3348-2875, but new lows beat out new highs once again by a narrow margin, 119-85.

Oil backed off 98 cents to $103.85 per barrel, while gold gained $9.40 to $909.60. Silver tagged along, rising 30 cents to $17.48 per ounce.

There's plenty on the minds of investors right now and some of it will be revealed tomorrow at 8:30 am. The news is unlikely to be positive, but the market's response will be vitally important going forward into 1st quarter earnings season.