Dow Ends Higher; What Happened to the Crisis?

Well, the markets gave us all the answer we were seeking. There really wasn't a "severe financial crisis" such as was being peddled by Henry Paulson and the Bush administration. It was all scare tactics designed to steal $700 billion dollars from US taxpayers and give the Treasury Secretary unimpeachable powers.

They failed. Miserably.

The Dow finished up 118 points on Friday and is up a very healthy 550 points since the low last Wednesday of 10,609. Wasn't it supposed to crash? My point exactly. This whole sordid affair is a massive fraud perpetrated by the White House and Treasury. There's no chance of passage by congress of anything even remotely resembling Paulson's original 3-page draft proposal.

Wall Street, at this point, doesn't really care. They seem to have matters under control. The media, however, are very confused. While many outlets are saying that McCain blew up the meeting at the White House, some right-wing radio hosts, especially Rush Limbaugh, are blaming Obama for killing the deal.

The NY Times provides some background to suggest that neither had much to do with killing the proposal.

Whatever the case, the White House was generally thwarted by rank-and-file Republicans in the House and Democrats in both houses. By doing nothing, so far, congress has saved us $700 billion. Paulson's plan was panned by Senator Richard Shelby and 200 economists as unworkable.

If the US economy was in serious circumstances, we could surely count on the current cast running the federal government to make a mess of it by playing politics, as they do, all the time, non-stop.

The blame for this one, though, falls surely on the Republicans, specifically the White House, for proposing the bailout to being with.

There may be a deal tonight, tomorrow, Sunday, Monday or never. At some point all of the congresspeople will want to get out of town and back to their districts and states for a recess until the election. Many are in tight races which could help explain the Republican motives at the start. By keeping incumbents in D.C., the challengers of many first-term Democrats would have an edge.

That doesn't seem to have worked out, however. Congress will recess sometime next week, if not over the weekend. There's no crisis and no need to rush any legislation. Both the congress and president will be lame ducks in less than 40 days. It's time for them to go home.

Dow 11,143.13 +121.07; NASDAQ 2,183.34 -3.23; S&P 500 1,213.27 +4.09; NYSE Composite 7,890.46 -37.41

On the day, though, the indices were split, decliners were far ahead of advancing issues, 3977-2362. The Dow, in particular, was aided by AIG being replaced with Kraft (KFT). New lows soared beyond new highs, 484-20.

There's obviously still considerable weakness in the markets, but nothing of the scale the public has been told. Further declines are ahead, maybe on the order of 10-20%, and we're in a slight recession which is likely to get worse before it gets better.

The upshot of all this malaise and confusion is that Main Street is one heck of a lot healthier than Wall Street. Small business should thrive over the coming months and years. Stocks may be under pressure for some time to come.

Oil slipped $1.13, closing at $106.89. Gold gained $6.50, to $888.50. Silver ended at $13.50, up 23 cents.

Volume was moderate to light, very un-crash-like.

NYSE Volume 1,169,676,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,986,540,000

What? No Crash? And Why is This Man Laughing?

Overnight, while the politicians in Washington dreamt sweet dreams of re-election and $700 billion bailouts, the FDIC took over Washington Mutual, sold a portion of the assets to JP Morgan Chase (the rich really do get richer) for about $1.9 billion and maybe saved the economy.

Geez, regulators actually doing the right thing. What a concept.

In the nation's capitol, president Bush and his lackey, Treasury Secretary Henry (Hank) Paulson are watching in disbelief and horror that their "emergency" plan to save the economy from imminent financial "crisis" is going up in flames as members of their own party - House Republicans plus Senators Shelby and Bunning - are balking at the outlandish proposal.

And today... the stock market didn't crash. Well, at least not yet. The Dow is down about 60 points, but it's still a good 350 ahead of the closing low last Wednesday of 10,609, so, if there's going to be a sell-off because the bailout plan is not going to happen, it had better be a big one and it ought to happen soon.

Why? Because if the market doesn't crash today, it's not likely to any time soon. Meaning the beg scare the president and Paulson and Bernanke put on the American public was more or less a hoax. The world isn't ending, the financial underpinnings of the world economy are not crumbling (Weaker, sure. Crumbling, no.), and Wall Street doesn't need $700 billion of unfunded, must-be-borrowed taxpayer money to bail out about 3 or 4 already bankrupt big financial firms and another 12 to 20 smaller ones which are on the ropes, or, maybe it was just so they could hide all the lies and deceptions and outright theft that took place over the last 8 years.

That's probably already been handled. Goldman Sachs, in whose coffers most of the illegal money and wild derivatives rest, is now a bank holding company, a commercial bank, and the books will remain far from the peering eyes of bank regulators for the time being. Maybe the FBI will get a glimpse somewhere down the line, but probably not enough to indict anyone.

So, problem solved. Everybody have a nice weekend.

Wait a minute, you wonder. What about that screed of yesterday in which you basically outlined a doomsday scenario?

You ask. I answer.

At the time of that writing and all day Thursday, it looked very much like the congress was once again acceding to the wishes of the worst president in the history of the nation and was about to put American's further down the debt hole. I had wrapped up my writing for the day at about 5:00, before events at the White House changed the game.

The Wall Street Journal actually has a nice report on how things fell apart.

There is no deal. Not on Thursday and not today, anyhow. Lawmakers (I love how we give the slackers in congress such laudatory nicknames) say they will work over the weekend to hammer out a compromise, meaning that the Bush-Paulson plan is dead and US taxpayers won't be on the hook for a huge wad of money. There probably will be some kind of plan out of congress, but it will not be anywhere near the cost of $700. It's more likely that a phased-in plan could be worked out or that the whole thing gets put on hold until after the election and everyone in Washington goes back to their respective states and districts to resume campaigning, as was originally planned.

Additionally, the Jewish holiday of Rosh Hashanah is September 29 through October 1, beginning and ending at sundown on those dates, Monday and Wednesday of next week.

Not to sound racist or anti-semetic, because I know how comments such as this one can be misinterpreted, but the likelihood of a crash occurring on, during or just prior to Rosh Hashanah are slim because there are many Jewish people involved in the functioning of top trading and financial firms and they'll not be working those days. Many Jews are quite devout and take their holidays seriously. Volume on the stock markets is noticeably down on most important Jewish holidays, and Rosh Hashanah is New Year for Jews. Happy New Year! The market's not going to crash.

So, I'm fine.

Actually, I'm laughing at John McCain's grandstanding - "I'm going to Washington to save the economy, dammit. No debate. This is too important."

I will make an easy buck off of this. I bet my father a dollar that McCain would show up for the debate despite his earlier statements. Either way, he looks bad. First, canceling the debate (or at least trying to) was a bad idea. Besides, there are 535 congressmen and 99 other Senators working on the economy. I don't think they'd really miss Big Bad John much since he hasn't actually attended Congress in the past two years. Actually, ditto for Obama. They've both been busy campaigning.

I am also laughing at this whole bogus "crisis" which Bush and Paulson schemed up. Well, it's been a week now since Paulson put together his $700 billion bailout plan. It's not going anywhere and since last Wednesday, when the Dow hit 10,609, it's actually up about 350 points and only down 50 today. That could change, but with the failure of WaMu, the nation's largest bank failure ever, last night, the market kind of just yawned. If there was going to be a crash, it would have occurred this morning. Crashes don't happen in the middle of the day.

I've been saying for a week that congress should do NOTHING, which is something at which they have great expertise. Go on recess, go home and campaign, come back after the election. Maybe my message is getting through.

I'm also laughing at Nancy Pelosi. You have to understand the humor in hearing her say, "We're not passing anything until we know the rank and file REPUBLICANS are on board." Hilarious!

And, finally, I'm laughing at eBay. Not only is the company self-destructing, but I've now been prohibited from posting on their message boards for the 4th time in the last 4 months. I've had 2 7-day suspensions, a 30-day suspension and now another 30 days in the hole. Seems the message board moderators are a little peeved about what I have to say about politics mostly. There are a couple of ex-military right-wingers on the board and I have been somewhat outspoken (who me?) about what they and the radio talk show hosts say being untrue and generally supporting the liberal or progressive or, actually, the reasoned and intelligent viewpoint. Every now and then, I do call somebody a name or two, but in general, my suspensions have been largely politically-motivated. Remember, one of McCain's top advisors is Meg Whitman, former CEO of ebay. Old loyalties die hard, I guess.

Anyhow, there are 39 days until the election. Obama's lead continues to build. There are only 116 days until Bush and Cheney are officially out of office. Looks like we may avoid going to war with Iran and the president's final attempt to screw American taxpayers out of $700 billion MORE dollars is going down in flames.

A few closing salient points:

The WSJ points out that "Republican leadership aides said as few as 30 to 40 of the 199 House Republicans could end up supporting the Bush package."

And, on Monday, an agitated Henry Paulson, responding to questions about the enormous price tag of his proposal by members of congress on Tuesday, Paulson snarled, "Guess what? The taxpayers are already on the hook." Guess again, Hank. We stopped listening to you and your people a long time ago. Repudiation deluxe!

Paulson reportedly got down on one knee on Thursday and begged Democrats not to disrail the plan. Begging. How quaint! He'd be begging for a shorter prison term if I had my way.

Queue up "Happy Days are Here Again" or maybe "Dancin' In the Street," because right now, things are certainly looking up for us working folks.

God Bless America!

(I'll have a final post for the week after the markets close, around 6:00 pm ET.)

Joy Ride Up (and Down) Wall Street (Part 1)

Editor's Note: There is so much to be said here, I could write for days and not even begin to scratch the surface, so today's normal single post is being broken into two parts, but since this is a blog in reverse chronological order, I'm publishing this part last.

First, an overview of the day's events.

Basically, if you're not up to speed on the destruction of the American financial, legal and constitutional system. The administration and the congress - collectively the worst bunch of people ever elected to public office - have conspired to take $700 billion dollars of taxpayer money, ostensively to bail out Wall Street and foreign firms which are likely already insolvent, and buy up their unsalable bad paper.

There will, as usual, be cursory oversight and some lame, toothless provisions to limit executive pay for plan participants.

Stocks soared on reports suggesting swift passage of the legislation, with bipartisan agreement. President Bush met with Twiddle-Dee and Twiddle-Dum, otherwise known as candidates John McCain and Barack Obama, both of whom pledge change, but, when it really matters, simply go along with the status quo.

The Dow rallied nearly 200 points, though it was up over 300 at different points of the day.

Dow 11,022.06 +196.89; NASDAQ 2,186.57 +30.89; S&P 500 1,209.18 +23.31; NYSE Composite 7,927.87 +159.05

Advancers trampled decliners, 4205-2145, but check out the new highs (23) to new lows (277), 12-1, not very promising. I'd say, even with this artificial stimulus stocks still aren't going anywhere soon, except lower.

Oil gained $2.29, to $108.02. No surprise there, or in metals movement. Gold sank $13.00, to $882.00. Silver fell 17 cents to $13.28.

Continue to part 2...

Joy Ride Up (and Down) Wall Street (Part 2)

The government, which is supposedly under the purview of the "people" has run amuck. They are not responsive to the wishes of the people. Congressional aides said that calls were coming in to their offices yesterday 99-1 AGAINST any kind of bailout, yet the government presses ahead.

And, sure, we've had these kinds of things before, but this is very different. They are going to sweep away all the wrongdoing with what's likely to become $2 trillion before they're done, with absolutely no accountability.

If the government passes this legislation - and I'm pretty sure that they will - you can kiss this country good bye in less than 20 years. All of the baby boomer generation will have retired by then, most of them to a life of poverty and degradation as prices soar and social security is cut back.

I have three nieces whom I love. Their futures are being wasted by this insidious government only interested in winning the next election. Once any politician gets to Washington, they become part of one bigger party: the ruling class.

Whoever wins the election will do no better. I thought Obama was the agent of change. WELL, HE CAN START BY NOT GOING ALONG WITH THE STATUS QUO. HE'S JUST ANOTHER ONE OF THEM, AND SO IS MCCAIN. We will get no change, no matter who wins. Just more of the same. And slowly, slowly, our freedoms are eroded and the nation falls further and further into debt and the politicians and Wall Street do as they please while we struggle to get by.

Adieu, America. You are not the country I once knew. You are a perversion, a shadow, a shallow reflection of what once was great.

I am thoroughly disgusted and beyond enraged. I am now the opposition.

A message posted to a message board called the bailout plan, "...a fascist takeover hiding behind a cultivated emergency."

That language is completely appropriate.


How this affects you and me: a rough outline

Every taxpayer (different from every American, as it excludes children, retirees, those on welfare or other public assistance, etc.) will incur about $5000 of debt, maybe $10,000 when it's all over, to be paid by current and yes, future taxpayers. Plus interest.

You won't get a bill for it, but you will notice that the government, in its infinite wisdom will work out other "market mechanisms" to ratchet up the pressure on the American taxpayer.

Highway tolls, fees for licenses, excise taxes, property taxes, sales taxes, will all increase all the way down the food chain. Services from government will shrink in size and scope. Basic necessities will cost more: gas, food, heating oil. The government will impose more tariffs on foreign goods to help pay the bill. They don't care that you'll pay more for anything imported, and just about everything is.

The dollar will continue to sink in value. Corporations, most of which do business outside the US will prosper. Home values will decline or stagnate. Wages will stagnate while the govt. takes more out of your paycheck.

So, while there's no actual bill to pay, the money is coming out of your pocket in the form of increased fees, inflation, and a lower standard of living which has as an ultimate end, nothing but devastation and failure, because the bill never gets paid, never gets forgiven.

The bailout doesn't even begin to solve the problem, it exacerbates it, kicking the can down the road. Trouble is, the road is a dead end.

Our government lies, cheats and steals from the public on a daily basis. And it's time for Americans to do the same to them. Stop paying whatever taxes you can. The loopholes are out there. I urge everyone to file a dba and form a home business, take all the deductions and lose money. Stiff them right back. What are they going to do? Put us all in jail.

Don't laugh. They might. The greed and hubris of this government knows no bounds. The stupidity of their idealism is that eventually, there will be no one left from which to steal.

The truth of the matter - which they won't tell us, ergo, the bailout - is that half of the major banks and financial institutions are already insolvent and so is the government. After this and Fannie and Freddie, we'll be over $11,000,000,000,000 in debt. And that, my friends, is $36,700 for every man, woman and child in America owed to foreign governments and lien holders. Pay up!

Just Another $700,000,000,000 Day at the Office

The debate on Capitol (or should it be "Capital") Hill rages over whether to grant Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson a $700 billion check to ball out failing - or already failed - financial institutions.

On Tuesday, the Secretary and Fed head Ben Bernanke gave testimony and fielded questions from the Senate. Today, it was members of the House of Representatives who took turns poking and prodding the "Desperate Duo." The hue and cry for accountability, protection and limitations on executive pay could not have been louder.

On the last point, Paulson and Bernanke finally gave in, bowing to congress' demands that CEO and top executive pay be slashed for firms participating in the plan. Whatever they lawmakers come up with, it will likely be watered down, non-binding and easily skirted. With $700 billion floating around, who's going to miss a couple hundred million for Paulson's buddies here and there?

The debate also raged on message boards. A message I posted on one such board seemed to sum up the situation to the satisfaction of a number of participants. It follows, in part, below:

Fannie and Freddie, the guarantors of about 50% of all mortgage loans in the US have already been taken over by the govt. The "banks" who made the loans repackaged the mortgages and sold them to investors.

The stupidity of the top financial firms was in their greed, they kept a lot of these mortgage packages - officially off their books - but still there, and in some cases borrowed against those same, bad funds to leverage themselves even more, until it all began to unravel.

Instead of dispersing the risk, they kept much of the risk concentrated in their off-balance sheet transactions, a la Enron. There are numerous parties and counter parties, all leveraged out through derivatives which will cause unknown damage across the credit spectrum.

At this point in time, the $700 billion has little to do with mortgages, and much more to do with credit risk, leverage and derivative exposure by top financial firms. There's no regulation of this money and risk and it continues to flare up as companies are exposed. Some of it is criminal, some just bad judgment. These companies caused the problem by not diversifying risk like they were supposed to according to their models and were leveraged 35-1 in some cases. Now it is unwinding and the carnage could be great though there will be survivors.

It needs to be unwound without bailouts and tax money or else it will just continue and will result in a real catastrophe down the road. You can't just play games and never get caught. There are consequences and the bailout is designed to take the burden off the financial companies which will be harmed or are already insolvent.

That pretty much summarizes my position. Meanwhile, a number of developments overnight and during the day are worth noting.

The FBI has launched a preliminary fraud investigation into the workings of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Bros., and AIG, along with 22 other firms. The agency seeks information and background leading up to the various bailouts - all manufactured with close care by Paulson and Bernanke, I should add - and whether fraudulent practices were used in the lead-up to the eventual massive bailout proposal now under debate.

Goldman Sachs (Paulson's former firm) and Morgan Stanley were granted quick approval to change their designation from investment banks to holding - or, commercial - banks, in addition, they are seeking exemptions to retain their commodities and other businesses that normally don't fall under the rules. The speed at which these approvals were granted was breathtaking. No accounting, no review, no peering into the firms' practices. I suppose that when you're sweeping billions under the rug, you take care to do so quickly.

Dow 10,825.17 -29.00; NASDAQ 2,155.68 +2.35; S&P 500 1,185.87 -2.35; NYSE Composite 7,768.82 -16.45

President Bush will address the nation at 9:00 ET tonight on the airwaves. Hurrah!

In light of the confluence of events, the markets took a breather, trading in a narrow range. That still didn't prevent declining issues to outpace advancers, 3938-2363, or for new lows to overwhelm new highs, 294-19. Yes, 19.

Commodities were mixed, with oil falling 88 cents, to $105.73, gold up $3.80 to $895.00 and silver up 27 cents to $13.44.

John McCain could simply not resist the opportunity to grandstand, calling for cancellation of Friday's scheduled debate between him and Barack Obama, ostensibly to return to Washington to help get the legislation passed. He must be really worried about debating head-to-head with Obama.

What's sure to follow are calls that the Democrats are dragging their feet on this legislation. The administration surely wants to get its mitts on that bundle of cash and, as usual, they will hold a gun to the head of Democrats and the American public to get it.

What a day!

Volume was extremely light.

NYSE Volume 1,081,259,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,815,884,000