Less than a day after Americans election their first African-American president, Barack Obama, investors took a cautious approach, taking recent profits and heading for the hills.
This day was by no means a referendum on Barack Obama. Stocks were stretched thin. As of Tuesday's close, the Dow was up a full 1450 points off the October 27 lows, just 6 short sessions ago. That's an 18% gain, hardly sustainable. A retest of the 8175 low must occur and will likely happen within the next three weeks. Stocks may actually take another hit in December, especially if retail sales slump at the start of the holiday shopping season.
Tax-related selling may also be an issue, though one cannot imagine much selling to lock in what are most assuredly losses at this juncture.
Wednesday's loss of 5.1% was the largest percentage drop on the day after a presidential election in Dow history. On Nov. 8, 1932, the day after FDR defeated Herbert Hoover for the presidency, the Dow fell 4.5%.
Dow 9,139.27 -486.01; NASDAQ 1,681.64 -98.48; S&P 500 952.77 -52.98; NYSE Composite 6,012.17 -332.92
Market internals struck a rather somber tone, with losers beating out gainers, 5037-1286. New lows were achieved by some 154 issues. Only 7 posted new highs. Volume was moderate.
NYSE Volume 5,524,001,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,201,961,000
Oil took another nose dive, losing $5.23, to $65.30. Gold lost $14.90, to $742.40, while silver gained 33 cents to $10.46.
One should refrain from reading too much into the figures over the next few days, as they are likely to be dreadful. More and more firms continue to release earnings reports and forward-looking guidance that is spooking some investors. Still others are in the process of announcing or executing job cuts. Preliminary reports say that Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report could be a stunner, showing a massive 200,000 jobs lost in October.
Beware. We are still in a falling stock zone. 8000 could easily be shattered on the downside in coming days and weeks.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Good, Bad and Ugly: Stocks Soar, Oil Up 10%, McCain Thinks He's a Winner
As Americans went to the polls in record numbers on this Election Day 2008, investors on Wall Street sent the Dow Jones Industrials to a 4-week high. Who knows why? Economic news isn't that good (in fact, it's all been bad lately), corporate earnings have been spotty, Circuit City is closing 155 stores and oil popped big time on Saudi production cuts.
Today's rally is probably a canard, or, at best, an indication that big money thinks any kind of change in Washington will be a good one. The heavy money's on a big Obama win, and with that, sweeping Democrats into a very strong majority in both houses of the congress.
In any case, Wall Street seemed a different place than it had been the past two months. Of course, we're down about 15% since the beginning of September and a bunch more from this time last year.
Dow 9,625.28 +305.45; NASDAQ 1,780.12 +53.79; S&P 500 1,005.75 +39.45; NYSE Composite 6,345.09 +290.11
Advancers led decliners, 4621-1773, while the gap between new lows and new highs remained in favor of the bottom feeders, 144-20. Volume was considerable, considering the focus on elections rather than money for a day, though most of the action was on the NASDAQ, bringing up a rather curious circumstance: Are investors looking more to small caps and technology rather than blue chip stocks in a potential Obama administration?
NYSE Volume 1,308,074,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,333,323,000
Oil jumped $6.62, to $70.53, on OPEC production cuts, though the figure is probably not sustainable despite the coming holidays and colder weather. Demand is slack, and output cuts aren't going to change the dynamic of conservation and penny-pinching at the pump. Gold was up $30.50, to $757.30, and silver gained 38 cents, to $10.13, reversing the predominant trend. The gains in the metals is another curiosity. Are gold-bugs preparing for trouble, like a long night of vote-counting, possible violence over rigged results, or are we reading into the figures too much?
We will know, soon, hopefully within hours. For election stories, check out our Live Blogging of the Election.
Today's rally is probably a canard, or, at best, an indication that big money thinks any kind of change in Washington will be a good one. The heavy money's on a big Obama win, and with that, sweeping Democrats into a very strong majority in both houses of the congress.
In any case, Wall Street seemed a different place than it had been the past two months. Of course, we're down about 15% since the beginning of September and a bunch more from this time last year.
Dow 9,625.28 +305.45; NASDAQ 1,780.12 +53.79; S&P 500 1,005.75 +39.45; NYSE Composite 6,345.09 +290.11
Advancers led decliners, 4621-1773, while the gap between new lows and new highs remained in favor of the bottom feeders, 144-20. Volume was considerable, considering the focus on elections rather than money for a day, though most of the action was on the NASDAQ, bringing up a rather curious circumstance: Are investors looking more to small caps and technology rather than blue chip stocks in a potential Obama administration?
NYSE Volume 1,308,074,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,333,323,000
Oil jumped $6.62, to $70.53, on OPEC production cuts, though the figure is probably not sustainable despite the coming holidays and colder weather. Demand is slack, and output cuts aren't going to change the dynamic of conservation and penny-pinching at the pump. Gold was up $30.50, to $757.30, and silver gained 38 cents, to $10.13, reversing the predominant trend. The gains in the metals is another curiosity. Are gold-bugs preparing for trouble, like a long night of vote-counting, possible violence over rigged results, or are we reading into the figures too much?
We will know, soon, hopefully within hours. For election stories, check out our Live Blogging of the Election.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Wall Street Takes a Break as Elections Loom
Investors were in a laid-back mood the day before America's critical presidential and congressional elections on Tuesday. With Barack Obama leading all of the major polls, there doesn't seem to be any sign of an exodus from stocks, as more than a few right-leaning pundits have suggested.
Rather, Wall Street spent most of Monday trading in a narrow range, sporting a wait-and-see attitude. Since election results won't be known until well after the close of trading on Tuesday, Election Day may turn look somewhat similar, with volume weak, the indices largely unchanged and trading limited to rounding out positions.
Dow 9,319.83 -5.18; NASDAQ 1,726.33 +5.38; S&P 500 966.30 -2.45; NYSE Composite 6,054.98 -6.11
Advancing issues beat decliners, 3563-2778. The gap between new lows and new highs continued to compress, down to 132 new lows to 21 new highs.
In economic news, which continues to be depressing, the ISM Manufacturing Index fell more than expected, to 38.9 in October, from 44.5 in September. This is really nothing new. The manufacturing sector hasn't been the beneficiary of good news in well over two years.
Much in the same vein, the three major US automakers - General Motors, Chrysler and Ford - saw their sales for October drop 45, 35 and 30%, respectively. They were not alone, however, as foreign automakers also saw sales slump. Toyota's sales fell 23%; Nissan's sales were down 33%. Honda was off 25%.
Normally, that kind of news would have sent stocks into a tailspin, but this was no ordinary day wrapped within an extraordinary two months on Wall Street. Bad news is now already discounted, and, to a large degree, ignored. Stocks are already at levels not seen in years, though a retesting of the lows will likely occur within weeks once the election passes by.
Oil for December delivery lighted up by $3.90, sending the price for a barrel of crude to $63.91. Gold gained $8.60, to $726.60, while silver added 2 cents to $9.75 per ounce.
Volume was very light, as expected.
NYSE Volume 1,017,059,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,808,486,000
Rather, Wall Street spent most of Monday trading in a narrow range, sporting a wait-and-see attitude. Since election results won't be known until well after the close of trading on Tuesday, Election Day may turn look somewhat similar, with volume weak, the indices largely unchanged and trading limited to rounding out positions.
Dow 9,319.83 -5.18; NASDAQ 1,726.33 +5.38; S&P 500 966.30 -2.45; NYSE Composite 6,054.98 -6.11
Advancing issues beat decliners, 3563-2778. The gap between new lows and new highs continued to compress, down to 132 new lows to 21 new highs.
In economic news, which continues to be depressing, the ISM Manufacturing Index fell more than expected, to 38.9 in October, from 44.5 in September. This is really nothing new. The manufacturing sector hasn't been the beneficiary of good news in well over two years.
Much in the same vein, the three major US automakers - General Motors, Chrysler and Ford - saw their sales for October drop 45, 35 and 30%, respectively. They were not alone, however, as foreign automakers also saw sales slump. Toyota's sales fell 23%; Nissan's sales were down 33%. Honda was off 25%.
Normally, that kind of news would have sent stocks into a tailspin, but this was no ordinary day wrapped within an extraordinary two months on Wall Street. Bad news is now already discounted, and, to a large degree, ignored. Stocks are already at levels not seen in years, though a retesting of the lows will likely occur within weeks once the election passes by.
Oil for December delivery lighted up by $3.90, sending the price for a barrel of crude to $63.91. Gold gained $8.60, to $726.60, while silver added 2 cents to $9.75 per ounce.
Volume was very light, as expected.
NYSE Volume 1,017,059,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,808,486,000
Friday, October 31, 2008
Markets Finish Stellar Week With Solid Gains
Wasn't it just a week or two ago that the world was about to end? Our global financial system was supposed to fall into some Keynesian Black Hole unless governments printed massive amounts of money and handed it over - pronto.
Well, that's what happened, kind of, and it worked, if you believe the whole story, from the blowup of Bear Stearns to the credit squeeze of September, to the "emergency" measures taken by the Fed, Treasury and the congress, whose members had that "deer in the headlights" blank stare throughout the whole process.
And glory be! Here we are with stocks around the world sporting gains like we cured the common cold, landed men on Mars and won the Triple Crown all in the same week.
The gains of the last week of October were nearly as robust as the losses earlier in the month, For the week just ended, the Dow Jones Industrials picked up 947 points; the NASDAQ ratcheted up 169 points; the S&P 500 got a 92-point boost and the NYSE Composite gained 674 points. Not bad, considering we were supposed to be facing down imminent economic collapse. Obviously, some people aren't buying the narrative.
Dow 9,325.01 +144.32; NASDAQ 1,720.95 +22.43; S&P 500 968.75 +14.66; NYSE Composite 6,061.09 +86.06
There are two dominant schools of thought at present. Both assume that the core of the crisis was a toxic combination of subprime mortgage loans, repackaged and sold as CDOs (collateralized debt obligations), plus bets against them in the form of credit default swaps and insurance on the bets (which is what AIG was holding when it blew up in their hands).
One school thinks the entire affair was above board and that the various government actions, including rate cuts, cash injections of billions of dollars, francs, yen and pounds into banks in developed countries, and a smattering of other "credit easing" measures were necessary and useful.
The more conspiratorial school believes the whole thing was cooked up by the banks and to varying extents, the governments involved, and that all the measures taken were just part of a high stakes con game in which Wall Street bankers stole billions.
How involved the two major political parties in America were involved is a matter of conjecture. Truth is that both were probably more deeply involved than we will ever know, but the end result is another free pass for the Bush thugs as they walk away with billions, and the ushering in of the Democratic party with full control and a somewhat busted budget.
If the crisis did anything, it assured the election of Barack Obama, which should have occurred any way, but also will help put a hard Democratic party majority in congress, to pass whatever legislation they see as suitable.
Whoever said, "fundamentals don't matter," hit it right on the nose for September and October of 2008. There was nothing fundamentally trackable throughout this entire episode. It was all political. Don't kid yourself.
On the day, the real fundamentals that mattered were very positive. Gainers outraced losers by a healthy margin, 4735-1640. New lows were once again far ahead of new lows, 205-18, though the number of both and the gap between them has stabilized into a range for now. Volume was moderate.
NYSE Volume 1,563,234,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,479,693,000
Commodities traded all over the board, but in the end, oil was up $1.85, to $67.81, gold lost another $20.30, to $718.20. Silver fell 6 cents to $9.73.
So, where are we now, and what's ahead? I thought you'd never ask. We have the federal funds rate at 1%, the Dow at 9300 and change and a recession that's probably already a year old. Oil is down, gold is moderating and $12 trillion dollars of wealth has just been whisked away, most of it into the ether. It's 2003 all over again! Time to start a war and buy some houses! And stocks are cheap, too! Break out the band, and have them play "Happy Days Are Here Again" until the horn section runs out of breath.
But wait, there are two big events next week. On Tuesday, we elect a new president, a whole new House of Representatives and a slew of Senators. On Friday, we get the Labor Department report on Nonfarm Payrolls from October. There will be a rally on Wednesday, for sure, and some give back on Friday, in all probability. But, not to worry, we're fine, just fine.
Have a pleasant weekend. Vote early and often.
Well, that's what happened, kind of, and it worked, if you believe the whole story, from the blowup of Bear Stearns to the credit squeeze of September, to the "emergency" measures taken by the Fed, Treasury and the congress, whose members had that "deer in the headlights" blank stare throughout the whole process.
And glory be! Here we are with stocks around the world sporting gains like we cured the common cold, landed men on Mars and won the Triple Crown all in the same week.
The gains of the last week of October were nearly as robust as the losses earlier in the month, For the week just ended, the Dow Jones Industrials picked up 947 points; the NASDAQ ratcheted up 169 points; the S&P 500 got a 92-point boost and the NYSE Composite gained 674 points. Not bad, considering we were supposed to be facing down imminent economic collapse. Obviously, some people aren't buying the narrative.
Dow 9,325.01 +144.32; NASDAQ 1,720.95 +22.43; S&P 500 968.75 +14.66; NYSE Composite 6,061.09 +86.06
There are two dominant schools of thought at present. Both assume that the core of the crisis was a toxic combination of subprime mortgage loans, repackaged and sold as CDOs (collateralized debt obligations), plus bets against them in the form of credit default swaps and insurance on the bets (which is what AIG was holding when it blew up in their hands).
One school thinks the entire affair was above board and that the various government actions, including rate cuts, cash injections of billions of dollars, francs, yen and pounds into banks in developed countries, and a smattering of other "credit easing" measures were necessary and useful.
The more conspiratorial school believes the whole thing was cooked up by the banks and to varying extents, the governments involved, and that all the measures taken were just part of a high stakes con game in which Wall Street bankers stole billions.
How involved the two major political parties in America were involved is a matter of conjecture. Truth is that both were probably more deeply involved than we will ever know, but the end result is another free pass for the Bush thugs as they walk away with billions, and the ushering in of the Democratic party with full control and a somewhat busted budget.
If the crisis did anything, it assured the election of Barack Obama, which should have occurred any way, but also will help put a hard Democratic party majority in congress, to pass whatever legislation they see as suitable.
Whoever said, "fundamentals don't matter," hit it right on the nose for September and October of 2008. There was nothing fundamentally trackable throughout this entire episode. It was all political. Don't kid yourself.
On the day, the real fundamentals that mattered were very positive. Gainers outraced losers by a healthy margin, 4735-1640. New lows were once again far ahead of new lows, 205-18, though the number of both and the gap between them has stabilized into a range for now. Volume was moderate.
NYSE Volume 1,563,234,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,479,693,000
Commodities traded all over the board, but in the end, oil was up $1.85, to $67.81, gold lost another $20.30, to $718.20. Silver fell 6 cents to $9.73.
So, where are we now, and what's ahead? I thought you'd never ask. We have the federal funds rate at 1%, the Dow at 9300 and change and a recession that's probably already a year old. Oil is down, gold is moderating and $12 trillion dollars of wealth has just been whisked away, most of it into the ether. It's 2003 all over again! Time to start a war and buy some houses! And stocks are cheap, too! Break out the band, and have them play "Happy Days Are Here Again" until the horn section runs out of breath.
But wait, there are two big events next week. On Tuesday, we elect a new president, a whole new House of Representatives and a slew of Senators. On Friday, we get the Labor Department report on Nonfarm Payrolls from October. There will be a rally on Wednesday, for sure, and some give back on Friday, in all probability. But, not to worry, we're fine, just fine.
Have a pleasant weekend. Vote early and often.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Contraction Confirmed; Stocks Jump
Wall Street is a strange and mystifying place. What often occurs on a given day often is the opposite of expectations. Thursday was one of those days.
The Commerce Department concluded, in their initial 3rd quarter estimate, that GDP contracted at an annual rate of 0.3%
Both the GDP report and the weekly initial unemployment claims figure of 475,000 were released an hour before markets opened, but investors seemingly have already discounted the news and were cheered that the GDP figure was less of a contraction than predicted.
With opinions on whether or not we're in a recession ranged from the taciturn and pedantic - recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction - to the ridiculous and sublime. Nouriel Robini, the economist from NYU who has been predicting a harsh recession for some time, testified at a congressional hearing, "if it walks and quacks like a recession duck, it is a recession duck and we are in a recession."
Dow 9,180.69 +189.73; NASDAQ 1,698.52 +41.31; S&P 500 954.09 +24.00; NYSE Composite 5,975.03 +200.14
Roubini, who made the same kind of quirky quack on his blog in July pointed out then that the recession may have begun in the 4th quarter of 2007.
Roubini is obviously on the right track. Considering how desperate Republicans were to steer clear of a recession with the all-important election coming up in 2008, it doesn't take such a leap of faith to believe that 2008 1st and 2nd quarter GDP figures were largely fudged to obfuscate the obvious and that we've been in the throes of a contracting economy for more than a year.
Why else would stocks take their cue and rise smartly on the news of a smallish contraction? Smart money on Wall Street is betting that the recession will be largely over by the 2nd quarter of 2009 at the latest, making it a rather long and deep one, but one which is now in its latter stages.
Also weighing into the equation no doubt it the upcoming election, in which almost all indications favor the election of Barack Obama as the nation's first black president and a powerful majority in congress for the Democrats. Investors seem to not mind at all that Obama is a Democrat or that both the executive and legislative branches of government will both be in Democratic Party control.
That big money interests would think along those lines also does not take much of an imagination. Apparently, not many in the financial and business realm are too worried that Obama is going to do anything that will significantly upset the economy. All through the long primary and election seasons, Obama has displayed a cool and calm demeanor - and business loves predictability and a sure hand.
Just watch over the next few months how the argument shifts away from the economy. The banking crisis is now becoming ancient history. The Fed and Treasury panicked and congress went along to give banks much more assurance than they ever needed. As the money is now rolling out of the government coffers and into the hands of the slimy, scheming bankers, they'll be sure to cooperate lest Mr. Obama and a forthright congress take away their fat bonuses. That cake - and the deal - has probably already been taken and eaten. With Nancy (off the table) Pelosi in the mix, there's probably no chance of prosecution of these conniving masters of shadow finance, either.
The trading on Wall Street also was much calmer than it has been lately, a sign that volatility is on the wane. The extremes seen over the past month are difficult to maintain for long. Eventually, everything returns to some semblance of sanity and normalcy, even Wall Street.
On the day, advancing issues galloped past decliners, 4866-1401. The gap between new lows and new highs also continued to compress. There were 244 new lows, and just 13 new highs, but the difference is much smaller than it was just a few days ago.
This could be setting up for an enduring bounce rally extending through election day, when there will finally be some assurance of a positive change of leadership in Washington.
Crude oil took another small step backwards, losing $1.54, to close at $65.96 on the December contract. Gold got back to losing value, dropping $15.50, to $738.50. Silver lost 2 cents to finish at $9.79.
Exchange volume was moderate.
NYSE Volume 1,375,164,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,591,070,000
The Commerce Department concluded, in their initial 3rd quarter estimate, that GDP contracted at an annual rate of 0.3%
Both the GDP report and the weekly initial unemployment claims figure of 475,000 were released an hour before markets opened, but investors seemingly have already discounted the news and were cheered that the GDP figure was less of a contraction than predicted.
With opinions on whether or not we're in a recession ranged from the taciturn and pedantic - recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction - to the ridiculous and sublime. Nouriel Robini, the economist from NYU who has been predicting a harsh recession for some time, testified at a congressional hearing, "if it walks and quacks like a recession duck, it is a recession duck and we are in a recession."
Dow 9,180.69 +189.73; NASDAQ 1,698.52 +41.31; S&P 500 954.09 +24.00; NYSE Composite 5,975.03 +200.14
Roubini, who made the same kind of quirky quack on his blog in July pointed out then that the recession may have begun in the 4th quarter of 2007.
Roubini is obviously on the right track. Considering how desperate Republicans were to steer clear of a recession with the all-important election coming up in 2008, it doesn't take such a leap of faith to believe that 2008 1st and 2nd quarter GDP figures were largely fudged to obfuscate the obvious and that we've been in the throes of a contracting economy for more than a year.
Why else would stocks take their cue and rise smartly on the news of a smallish contraction? Smart money on Wall Street is betting that the recession will be largely over by the 2nd quarter of 2009 at the latest, making it a rather long and deep one, but one which is now in its latter stages.
Also weighing into the equation no doubt it the upcoming election, in which almost all indications favor the election of Barack Obama as the nation's first black president and a powerful majority in congress for the Democrats. Investors seem to not mind at all that Obama is a Democrat or that both the executive and legislative branches of government will both be in Democratic Party control.
That big money interests would think along those lines also does not take much of an imagination. Apparently, not many in the financial and business realm are too worried that Obama is going to do anything that will significantly upset the economy. All through the long primary and election seasons, Obama has displayed a cool and calm demeanor - and business loves predictability and a sure hand.
Just watch over the next few months how the argument shifts away from the economy. The banking crisis is now becoming ancient history. The Fed and Treasury panicked and congress went along to give banks much more assurance than they ever needed. As the money is now rolling out of the government coffers and into the hands of the slimy, scheming bankers, they'll be sure to cooperate lest Mr. Obama and a forthright congress take away their fat bonuses. That cake - and the deal - has probably already been taken and eaten. With Nancy (off the table) Pelosi in the mix, there's probably no chance of prosecution of these conniving masters of shadow finance, either.
The trading on Wall Street also was much calmer than it has been lately, a sign that volatility is on the wane. The extremes seen over the past month are difficult to maintain for long. Eventually, everything returns to some semblance of sanity and normalcy, even Wall Street.
On the day, advancing issues galloped past decliners, 4866-1401. The gap between new lows and new highs also continued to compress. There were 244 new lows, and just 13 new highs, but the difference is much smaller than it was just a few days ago.
This could be setting up for an enduring bounce rally extending through election day, when there will finally be some assurance of a positive change of leadership in Washington.
Crude oil took another small step backwards, losing $1.54, to close at $65.96 on the December contract. Gold got back to losing value, dropping $15.50, to $738.50. Silver lost 2 cents to finish at $9.79.
Exchange volume was moderate.
NYSE Volume 1,375,164,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,591,070,000
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