While investors were busy buying up stocks (the only plausible reason would be a combination of short-covering and year-end window dressing by funds), a couple of economic reports sent shudders through the remainder of humanity.
First, the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence sunk to an all-time low reading of 38 in December, from 44.7 in November. Somehow, the "experts" were expecting the reading to rise to 45. Apparently, the wizards of Wall Street weren't out shopping this Christmas season, or else they would have seen people shrugging off discounts of 50-60% or more and hanging on tightly to their purses and wallets.
The other report came in the housing arena, which hasn't had a dose of good news in well over a year now. The Case/Schiller 20-city index fell 18% in October, the worst decline since the index was launched in 2000. Prices are now said to be back to 2004 levels. While that may sound encouraging to some, anyone in the real estate business with half a brain realizes that prices began skyrocketing long before that, so there is likely to be a further decline ahead.
What most people fail to understand - beyond the government bailout money doing essentially nothing to alleviate the housing crisis - is that $2.2 trillion in ALT-A and ARM mortgages are due to re-set in 2009 and 2010. The number of foreclosures from this wave of defaults will extend the real estate and liquidity crisis to gigantic proportions. Subprime, in other words, was only the beginning.
But, stocks set sail higher from the outset and finished with strong gains.
Dow 8,668.39, +184.46 (2.17%)
NASDAQ 1,550.70, +40.38 (2.67%)
S&P 500 890.64, +21.22 (2.44%)
NYSE Composite 5,670.00, +135.36 (2.45%)
For the session (correction: tomorrow will be a full session, not a half session as I previously reported), advancers led decliners, 5134-1682, a very broad-based advance. New lows continued to dominate new highs, however, 240-25. Volume was light, and considerably better than Monday's pathetic no-show.
NYSE Volume 953,198,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,413,810,000
Crude oil futures for february took a 99-cent dip, closing at $39.03. Gold was also down slightly, losing $5.30, to $870.00. Silver (maybe the best investment of 2009) bucked the trend, gaining 17 cents, to $10.98.
Why silver for 2009? A couple of reasons are that all asset classes are going to get hit again in the coming year, but silver has already lost close to 50% from its high. There's also somewhat of a floor around $6, so prices, if they decline, should not go down much, whereas with gold, already inflated, could see $650. Also, silver is highly accessible to everybody. It's $10 or $11 per ounce, not $800. You can buy silver in multiple forms form multiple sources as well, so it may be the choice for small-time scroungers and fledgling investors, plus, it is readily liquidated. Those are some positive reasons beyond silver being well below the traditional gold-silver ratio.
If you can't buy gold, silver makes a nice substitute.
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Monday, December 29, 2008
Markets Creak, Don't Break
Monday's holiday hangover resulted in another poor performance for stocks, posting their 6th losing session of the last eight.
With little economic data due this final week of 2008, investors seem to be nitpicking over the remains of already-battered equities, sending the bulk lower and continuing the daily series of 150+ 52-week lows. Much of the focus was on Israel's full-on assault on the Gaza Strip, though that horrid little piece of Earth really has little to do with economics overall, it at least takes people's minds off the grotesque reality that is the global economy.
Dow 8,483.93, -31.62 (0.37%)
NASDAQ 1,510.32, -19.92 (1.30%)
S&P 500 869.42, -3.38 (0.39%)
NYSE Composite 5,534.64, -3.55 (0.06%)
Losers beat gainers, 4421-2303, and new lows expanded over new highs, 222-16. That ratio has been extremely stable over the past month, an indication that investors are playing a hybrid game of Chicken and Texas Hold 'em, with nobody seemingly capable of making the "all in" gambit. Slowly but surely, stocks keep descending in search of a bottom retracing, which apparently is going to occur next year rather than at the end of this one. Anyone who hasn't already done year-end tax selling is more than likely hoping for a rally in January, pinned on hopes that the Obama team can rescue the economy, or at least momentarily lift the spirits of market participants.
Volume was much less than ordinary, at roughly half that of a healthy day's figure.
NYSE Volume 877,202,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,182,510,000
Commodities finished higher, with oil posting a substantial $2.31 gain, closing at $40.02. Gold picked up $4.10, to finish at $875.30. Silver added 28 cents, to $10.81 the ounce.
As usual during the holidays, trading velocity was sluggish, at best. There is only one more full trading day (Tuesday; Wednesday the markets close at 1:00 pm) before investors gladly put 2008 behind them.
With little economic data due this final week of 2008, investors seem to be nitpicking over the remains of already-battered equities, sending the bulk lower and continuing the daily series of 150+ 52-week lows. Much of the focus was on Israel's full-on assault on the Gaza Strip, though that horrid little piece of Earth really has little to do with economics overall, it at least takes people's minds off the grotesque reality that is the global economy.
Dow 8,483.93, -31.62 (0.37%)
NASDAQ 1,510.32, -19.92 (1.30%)
S&P 500 869.42, -3.38 (0.39%)
NYSE Composite 5,534.64, -3.55 (0.06%)
Losers beat gainers, 4421-2303, and new lows expanded over new highs, 222-16. That ratio has been extremely stable over the past month, an indication that investors are playing a hybrid game of Chicken and Texas Hold 'em, with nobody seemingly capable of making the "all in" gambit. Slowly but surely, stocks keep descending in search of a bottom retracing, which apparently is going to occur next year rather than at the end of this one. Anyone who hasn't already done year-end tax selling is more than likely hoping for a rally in January, pinned on hopes that the Obama team can rescue the economy, or at least momentarily lift the spirits of market participants.
Volume was much less than ordinary, at roughly half that of a healthy day's figure.
NYSE Volume 877,202,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,182,510,000
Commodities finished higher, with oil posting a substantial $2.31 gain, closing at $40.02. Gold picked up $4.10, to finish at $875.30. Silver added 28 cents, to $10.81 the ounce.
As usual during the holidays, trading velocity was sluggish, at best. There is only one more full trading day (Tuesday; Wednesday the markets close at 1:00 pm) before investors gladly put 2008 behind them.
Friday, December 26, 2008
Stocks Gain Without Volume
To say that today's trading is insignificant would probably be a gross overstatement.
When two-thirds of the investment community is at Nordstrom's or J.C. Penny's returning unwanted Christmas gifts or trying to get cash back for credit purchases (a nifty trick, if only it could be done) we can fully appreciate the dysfunctional qualities of the decrepit financial system which has almost fully devolved over the past three months.
Actually, the deterioration took much longer, but it's only being understood for what it really is, now. The system, based on Wall Street's over-leveraged credit machine, is not only broken, it is defunct. There will need to be structural changes in finance unlike any we've ever before witnessed. Either the US Government will have to step to the plate to become the lender of last resort (which is happening now) along with the Fed, or the country is going to become more localized and fragmented - a lot less like Wal-Mart and a lot more like your local bagel shop.
As America wends through its second greatest depression (Americans love to organize things in grandiose terms), big companies are going to find it more difficult to borrow, raise capital via stock offerings and attract the best talent. In reality, Wall Street may think better of attracting the cream of the B-school breed as those same silver-spoon cretins are the ones who are primarily responsible for all the structured debt, risk management and business rationales that have produced the current big bust in all asset values.
Those companies which do find a way to borrow for capital projects will meet with less success on the other end of the ledger sheet. Their borrowing will be more costly, more scrutinized and their projects less successful. America is turning its back on the corporate culture, along with massive CEO salaries, income disparity and the relative virtue of greed in favor of a more basic, functional, and above-all local business climate. In coming years, you'll be more likely to find recent business school graduates managing community-based organizations than mingling with the corporate elite. In fact, being a member of the corporate elite is about to become so serially uncool that billionaires in bullet-proof limousines will become targets of ridicule and scorn. Some may have to fear for their very lives. Some, undeniably, will lose theirs, as already has been the case with Thierry de la Villehuchet, the French investor who apparently committed suicide last week. Some inner forces are telling me to not believe the "official" story as so often apparent suicide is merely a cover for a more grisly and gruesome crime.
Be that as it may, the investment world is turning a blind eye toward Wall Street as this worst year since the 30s comes crashing to conclusion. Wall Street's about to become a very lonely place, very soon.
Dow 8,515.55, +47.07 (0.56%)
NASDAQ 1,530.24, +5.34 (0.35%)
S&P 500 872.80, +7.38 (0.85%)
NYSE Composite 5,538.19, +50.86 (0.93%)
Advancing issues outweighed losers, 4442-2080, while new lows beat out new highs yet again, 167-17. Volume was the lightest of any full trading day this year.
NYSE Volume 516,782,000
NASDAQ Volume 595,498,000
Crude oil for February delivery gained $2.36, to $37.71. Gold caught a huge updraft, gaining $23.30, to $871.20. $900 seems like a watershed for gold, one which it cannot seem to overcome. Silver was likewise on the rise, up 18 cents, to $10.53, which oddly seems like a fair, albeit slightly undervalued, price.
With 2 1/2 days left in the 2008 market year, investors are hoarding cash and looking elsewhere for investment, or, alternatively, safe parking for the next 18-24 months. While treasuries may not offer the greatest of return (around 2.15% for 10-year notes), at least they seem safe.
Happy Holidays, again.
When two-thirds of the investment community is at Nordstrom's or J.C. Penny's returning unwanted Christmas gifts or trying to get cash back for credit purchases (a nifty trick, if only it could be done) we can fully appreciate the dysfunctional qualities of the decrepit financial system which has almost fully devolved over the past three months.
Actually, the deterioration took much longer, but it's only being understood for what it really is, now. The system, based on Wall Street's over-leveraged credit machine, is not only broken, it is defunct. There will need to be structural changes in finance unlike any we've ever before witnessed. Either the US Government will have to step to the plate to become the lender of last resort (which is happening now) along with the Fed, or the country is going to become more localized and fragmented - a lot less like Wal-Mart and a lot more like your local bagel shop.
As America wends through its second greatest depression (Americans love to organize things in grandiose terms), big companies are going to find it more difficult to borrow, raise capital via stock offerings and attract the best talent. In reality, Wall Street may think better of attracting the cream of the B-school breed as those same silver-spoon cretins are the ones who are primarily responsible for all the structured debt, risk management and business rationales that have produced the current big bust in all asset values.
Those companies which do find a way to borrow for capital projects will meet with less success on the other end of the ledger sheet. Their borrowing will be more costly, more scrutinized and their projects less successful. America is turning its back on the corporate culture, along with massive CEO salaries, income disparity and the relative virtue of greed in favor of a more basic, functional, and above-all local business climate. In coming years, you'll be more likely to find recent business school graduates managing community-based organizations than mingling with the corporate elite. In fact, being a member of the corporate elite is about to become so serially uncool that billionaires in bullet-proof limousines will become targets of ridicule and scorn. Some may have to fear for their very lives. Some, undeniably, will lose theirs, as already has been the case with Thierry de la Villehuchet, the French investor who apparently committed suicide last week. Some inner forces are telling me to not believe the "official" story as so often apparent suicide is merely a cover for a more grisly and gruesome crime.
Be that as it may, the investment world is turning a blind eye toward Wall Street as this worst year since the 30s comes crashing to conclusion. Wall Street's about to become a very lonely place, very soon.
Dow 8,515.55, +47.07 (0.56%)
NASDAQ 1,530.24, +5.34 (0.35%)
S&P 500 872.80, +7.38 (0.85%)
NYSE Composite 5,538.19, +50.86 (0.93%)
Advancing issues outweighed losers, 4442-2080, while new lows beat out new highs yet again, 167-17. Volume was the lightest of any full trading day this year.
NYSE Volume 516,782,000
NASDAQ Volume 595,498,000
Crude oil for February delivery gained $2.36, to $37.71. Gold caught a huge updraft, gaining $23.30, to $871.20. $900 seems like a watershed for gold, one which it cannot seem to overcome. Silver was likewise on the rise, up 18 cents, to $10.53, which oddly seems like a fair, albeit slightly undervalued, price.
With 2 1/2 days left in the 2008 market year, investors are hoarding cash and looking elsewhere for investment, or, alternatively, safe parking for the next 18-24 months. While treasuries may not offer the greatest of return (around 2.15% for 10-year notes), at least they seem safe.
Happy Holidays, again.
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Short Session, Small Gains
US equity markets closed early (1:00 pm), ahead of Christmas Eve, but investors took the opportunity to make some small purchases despite more gloomy economic news.
Dow 8,468.48, +48.99 (0.58%)
NASDAQ 1,524.90, +3.36 (0.22%)
S&P 500 865.42, +2.26 (0.26%)
NYSE Composite 5,487.33, +19.05 (0.35%)
New unemployment claims ratcheted higher in the most recent week, adding 586,000 to the roles of the unemployed. In a related note, much later in the day, Hilary Kramer predicted on PBS's Nightly Business Report that while government data would show unemployment at 10% in 2009, though the "real" unemployment - including discouraged workers the government does not count - may go as high as 20%.
Folks, those are near-depression numbers. during the Great Depression of the 1930s, unemployment was as high as 25% at some of the worst depths of the downturn. One of of five workers idled in today's economy is going to have a huge ripple effect, some of which we're seeing even now. With the official rate at 6.7% (a trifling) today, the "real" rate is likely closer to 13 or 14% already with no end in sight.
January should prove interesting in the least, when retailers add up their paltry results from the worst Christmas shopping season since 1968. There could be wholesale shuttering of stores across vast swaths of the retail landscape, leaving malls with gaping holes and no new tenants.
Other economic figures weren't spreading much holiday cheer. Personal spending slowed by 0.6% in November, and durable goods orders slipped 1.0%, though that number is seasonally-adjusted, and just plain missed the mark. The drop in durables was probably closer to 2.5-3%.
On the day, advancers beat back decliners, 3591-2773. New lows retained their advantage over new highs, 181-19. Volume was slim due to the 1:00 pm closure.
NYSE Volume 403,769,000
NASDAQ Volume 517,176,281
Oil slipped another $3.63, to $35.35. The metals improved, however. Gold was higher by $9.90, to $848.00. Silver added 9 cents, to $10.35.
That's a wrap. The Santa Claus rally seems to have fallen victim to deflation. Merry Christmas.
Dow 8,468.48, +48.99 (0.58%)
NASDAQ 1,524.90, +3.36 (0.22%)
S&P 500 865.42, +2.26 (0.26%)
NYSE Composite 5,487.33, +19.05 (0.35%)
New unemployment claims ratcheted higher in the most recent week, adding 586,000 to the roles of the unemployed. In a related note, much later in the day, Hilary Kramer predicted on PBS's Nightly Business Report that while government data would show unemployment at 10% in 2009, though the "real" unemployment - including discouraged workers the government does not count - may go as high as 20%.
Folks, those are near-depression numbers. during the Great Depression of the 1930s, unemployment was as high as 25% at some of the worst depths of the downturn. One of of five workers idled in today's economy is going to have a huge ripple effect, some of which we're seeing even now. With the official rate at 6.7% (a trifling) today, the "real" rate is likely closer to 13 or 14% already with no end in sight.
January should prove interesting in the least, when retailers add up their paltry results from the worst Christmas shopping season since 1968. There could be wholesale shuttering of stores across vast swaths of the retail landscape, leaving malls with gaping holes and no new tenants.
Other economic figures weren't spreading much holiday cheer. Personal spending slowed by 0.6% in November, and durable goods orders slipped 1.0%, though that number is seasonally-adjusted, and just plain missed the mark. The drop in durables was probably closer to 2.5-3%.
On the day, advancers beat back decliners, 3591-2773. New lows retained their advantage over new highs, 181-19. Volume was slim due to the 1:00 pm closure.
NYSE Volume 403,769,000
NASDAQ Volume 517,176,281
Oil slipped another $3.63, to $35.35. The metals improved, however. Gold was higher by $9.90, to $848.00. Silver added 9 cents, to $10.35.
That's a wrap. The Santa Claus rally seems to have fallen victim to deflation. Merry Christmas.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
The End is Here... and Now
American Express (AXP) has received preliminary approval for $3.39 billion in TARP funds along with CIT Group (CIT), which was also approved for $2.33 billion on Monday. Both companies have recently changed their status to bank holding companies, in order to qualify for the TARP money and other goodies from the Federal Reserve Bank and Treasury Department.
One wonders how the application-and-approval process actually works. Imagine a sleek CEO or CFO going to Paulson and Bernanke for money. Q: Are you and your firm both financially and morally bankrupt? A: Absolutely!
Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner!
Sadly, the entire US - and most of the world's - banking system is now defunct. Citigroup (C), Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) are all illiquid and have been for some time. Their status won't change. They all have to be broken up and sold off to healthier regional or local banks. Many of their "assets" will be liquidated, as the buyers will not want toxic structured financial instruments on their books. Buh, bye, bonuses!
On Friday, Treasury Secretary Paulson urged Congress to release the remaining $350 billion of TARP funds approved earlier this year. Today, the only independent voice in the Senate, Vermont's Bernie Sanders, urged congress to reject his request, saying, "It is inconceivable that we would provide another $350 billion to the banks – supposedly to ease credit – when they are refusing to tell us how they’re spending the money they’ve already received."
The latter portion of his comment was in reference to a Monday AP story describing how 21 recipients of TARP funds - all major banking or financial institutions - were unwilling or unable to answer questions on how the money already handed out was being used.
Essentially, the TARP, turned out to be a TRAP, like so many other government-sponsored programs under the Bush regime, essentially handing out taxpayer money (on loan) to the failed banking institutions. It has been more than two months since the bill passed congress, yet the economy has continued to worsen. What's becoming plain to all is that government is not going to save the average American from this maelstrom. We're all about to get sucked into the vortex of fraud, lies and deceit which ends in foreclosures, bankruptcies and discontent on a scale rivaling the Great Depression.
Getting to the title of this post, the end is here, and it is now. Americans will be facing some seriously ugly choices in the months ahead, and there's no guarantee that Mr. Obama's "infrastructure stimulus" package is going to produce anything more than make-work jobs in the construction trades. How that is supposed to revive an economy of which 70% of GDP comes from consumer spending remains a mystery.
It's apparent that there needs to be structural changes in almost every aspect of the American experience. The banking system is kaput, the government is corrupt, the taxes too high, yet they fail to meet budget demands year after year. Federal, state and local budgets need to be slashed now, not later, as does the budget of just about every household in the country.
A new way of finance and work ethic needs to be promoted, either from the bottom up or the top down. All the financial chicanery of the past 30 years has resulted in a near-death experience.
In response to the unfolding melodrama that is world socio-economic politics, investors took flight again on Tuesday, with markets sinking for the fifth straight day, and the eighth in the past eleven sessions. Some of the more oblivious in the financial media have been wishing for a "Santa Claus Rally" when the probability of such an event occurring is about the same as the Detroit Lions winning the Super Bowl. Personally, I'll be glad - along with about 10 million retail workers and countless investors - when this Christmas is over. It should rank as one of the most miserable ever.
Dow 8,419.49, -100.28 (1.18%)
NASDAQ 1,521.54, -10.81 (0.71%)
S&P 500 863.15, -8.48 (0.97%)
NYSE Composite 5,468.32, -52.50 (0.95%)
As expected, decliners led advancing issues, 4153-2549, while new lows continued to dominate new highs, 237-20, numbers that are becoming numbingly commonplace. Volume was again far below the norm, but the losses are so significant that volume isn't really part of the equation any more. So many hedge funds and individuals have already shut down for the holidays or longer that the remaining participants are being pushed by blind, naked fear, as that is the only emotion that hasn't already been fully drained, except possibly, desperation.
NYSE Volume 984,406,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,323,355,000
Oil slipped another $0.93, to $38.98. Gold fell $9.10, to $838.10. Silver slithered another sixty cents lower, closing at $10.26.
Underscoring the collapse of all asset values, the National Association of Realtors announced today that November existing home sales fell at a record pace of 8.6% and the median price of a home fell 13%, to $181,300 from $208,000 last year. The declines were the worst ever seen since the NAR began keeping records four decades ago.
At the peak of the housing market, in mid-2006, the median home price was $230,000. Since then, prices are off a shade more than 21%. In the short term, that's a large amount, though taking the longer view, there is surely more pain to come. Housing prices should fall another 25-40% over the next 3-5 years, and if that isn't the most pessimistic forecast you've ever heard, and are thinking I'm out of my mind, consider the following calculations.
Evan at the inflated value of 4 times annual pre-tax income, a person earning $40,000 a year could own a home worth $160,000. Now, let's do the new math: The average American will be (or already is) earning $35,000 or less in 2009, 2010, 2011 and beyond. At a more reasonable valuation of 3.5X annual income (and this is even pre-tax, assuming almost no income tax), that puts the "affordable" home at $122,500. That is 32.6% below today's median price. Of course, it could get worse, and probably will, since there aren't going to be that many banks willing to lend much of anything to anyone anytime soon.
Happy Holidays!
One wonders how the application-and-approval process actually works. Imagine a sleek CEO or CFO going to Paulson and Bernanke for money. Q: Are you and your firm both financially and morally bankrupt? A: Absolutely!
Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner!
Sadly, the entire US - and most of the world's - banking system is now defunct. Citigroup (C), Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) are all illiquid and have been for some time. Their status won't change. They all have to be broken up and sold off to healthier regional or local banks. Many of their "assets" will be liquidated, as the buyers will not want toxic structured financial instruments on their books. Buh, bye, bonuses!
On Friday, Treasury Secretary Paulson urged Congress to release the remaining $350 billion of TARP funds approved earlier this year. Today, the only independent voice in the Senate, Vermont's Bernie Sanders, urged congress to reject his request, saying, "It is inconceivable that we would provide another $350 billion to the banks – supposedly to ease credit – when they are refusing to tell us how they’re spending the money they’ve already received."
The latter portion of his comment was in reference to a Monday AP story describing how 21 recipients of TARP funds - all major banking or financial institutions - were unwilling or unable to answer questions on how the money already handed out was being used.
Essentially, the TARP, turned out to be a TRAP, like so many other government-sponsored programs under the Bush regime, essentially handing out taxpayer money (on loan) to the failed banking institutions. It has been more than two months since the bill passed congress, yet the economy has continued to worsen. What's becoming plain to all is that government is not going to save the average American from this maelstrom. We're all about to get sucked into the vortex of fraud, lies and deceit which ends in foreclosures, bankruptcies and discontent on a scale rivaling the Great Depression.
Getting to the title of this post, the end is here, and it is now. Americans will be facing some seriously ugly choices in the months ahead, and there's no guarantee that Mr. Obama's "infrastructure stimulus" package is going to produce anything more than make-work jobs in the construction trades. How that is supposed to revive an economy of which 70% of GDP comes from consumer spending remains a mystery.
It's apparent that there needs to be structural changes in almost every aspect of the American experience. The banking system is kaput, the government is corrupt, the taxes too high, yet they fail to meet budget demands year after year. Federal, state and local budgets need to be slashed now, not later, as does the budget of just about every household in the country.
A new way of finance and work ethic needs to be promoted, either from the bottom up or the top down. All the financial chicanery of the past 30 years has resulted in a near-death experience.
In response to the unfolding melodrama that is world socio-economic politics, investors took flight again on Tuesday, with markets sinking for the fifth straight day, and the eighth in the past eleven sessions. Some of the more oblivious in the financial media have been wishing for a "Santa Claus Rally" when the probability of such an event occurring is about the same as the Detroit Lions winning the Super Bowl. Personally, I'll be glad - along with about 10 million retail workers and countless investors - when this Christmas is over. It should rank as one of the most miserable ever.
Dow 8,419.49, -100.28 (1.18%)
NASDAQ 1,521.54, -10.81 (0.71%)
S&P 500 863.15, -8.48 (0.97%)
NYSE Composite 5,468.32, -52.50 (0.95%)
As expected, decliners led advancing issues, 4153-2549, while new lows continued to dominate new highs, 237-20, numbers that are becoming numbingly commonplace. Volume was again far below the norm, but the losses are so significant that volume isn't really part of the equation any more. So many hedge funds and individuals have already shut down for the holidays or longer that the remaining participants are being pushed by blind, naked fear, as that is the only emotion that hasn't already been fully drained, except possibly, desperation.
NYSE Volume 984,406,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,323,355,000
Oil slipped another $0.93, to $38.98. Gold fell $9.10, to $838.10. Silver slithered another sixty cents lower, closing at $10.26.
Underscoring the collapse of all asset values, the National Association of Realtors announced today that November existing home sales fell at a record pace of 8.6% and the median price of a home fell 13%, to $181,300 from $208,000 last year. The declines were the worst ever seen since the NAR began keeping records four decades ago.
At the peak of the housing market, in mid-2006, the median home price was $230,000. Since then, prices are off a shade more than 21%. In the short term, that's a large amount, though taking the longer view, there is surely more pain to come. Housing prices should fall another 25-40% over the next 3-5 years, and if that isn't the most pessimistic forecast you've ever heard, and are thinking I'm out of my mind, consider the following calculations.
Evan at the inflated value of 4 times annual pre-tax income, a person earning $40,000 a year could own a home worth $160,000. Now, let's do the new math: The average American will be (or already is) earning $35,000 or less in 2009, 2010, 2011 and beyond. At a more reasonable valuation of 3.5X annual income (and this is even pre-tax, assuming almost no income tax), that puts the "affordable" home at $122,500. That is 32.6% below today's median price. Of course, it could get worse, and probably will, since there aren't going to be that many banks willing to lend much of anything to anyone anytime soon.
Happy Holidays!
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