With US equity markets closed in observation of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, there was little to report except on select commodity markets.
In futures trading, oil for February delivery fell $2.84, to $33.67. The February contract closes on Tuesday, Jan. 20, and trading was thin as compared to the March contract.
Also feeling the impact of decreasing demand was natural gas, which is used to heat nearly 1/3 of all US households. The March contract fell 26 cents, to a seasonal low of $4.56.
Both prices reflect supply surpluses in US stocks and slack demand as the economy reels from deflationary pressures, job losses and the nation's worst recession since the 1930s.
Our regular report will be posted shortly after market close, later today, as Americans and the world will be focused on the historic inauguration of President Barack Obama.
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Friday, January 16, 2009
Inflation, Deflation and Financial Engineering
Stocks finished he week in fine fashion, ignoring the most obvious bad news: Bank of America needs another $20 billion and needs the Fed or Treasury to backstop even more huge potential losses; Citigroup is breaking up from the pressure of bad debts on its books; industrial production for December fell off another 2%, capacity utilization for the same period fell from 75.2% to 73.6%, and, deflation is alive and well, with the CPI dropping another 0.7% in December.
Noting that those aforementioned figures are supplied by corrupt, inept, spendthrift federal government agencies, the real condition is probably worse, though everybody loves the deflation idea. Everybody, that it, except the government and the Federal Reserve, both of whom are hell-bent on re-inflating the economy. They've been trying hard for months, however, to no avail, throwing money at banks and failing financial institutions, auto manufacturers, insurance companies and anybody else who seems in need of an additional $5 billion or more.
It's not working, and it won't. Here's why. Most of the money spent on bailing out banks and other businesses has been carefully squirreled away to enhance reserves, pay down some debt or other or fund continuing operations. For the money to actually result in inflation it needs to be put to new uses, or loaned, i.e., multiplied. Currently, the banks aren't interested in making new loans to anybody. They've been burned too badly by getting too close to that subprime fire, and now they're worried about other loans going bad, like credit cards, equity lines of credit, commercial real estate loans, to say nothing of the massive amounts (more than $2 trillion) of Alt-A and ARM mortgages due to reset in 2009-10.
The Fed, the government and Treasury, if they had an honest bone between them, would do what really would make the economy zip along: cut the payroll tax, institute usury laws (limiting the maximum interest rate chargeable by law) and let the failing banks (and other companies) be sold off in pieces and have new operators start over.
To get an idea of how one-sided and wrong the government help has been, consider that of the $350 billion already doled out via the TARP, all but $15 billion has gone to banks, financial firms and insurance companies (most of that to AIG). Today, electronics chain Circuit City announced that instead of reorganizing, it would liquidate, in effect, changing its bankruptcy status (filed in November) from Chapter 11 to Chapter 7, or, end of story for the company.
So, while the banks are "too big to fail," what about the 34,000 employees that Circuit City will furlough? And the leases that will not be paid on the huge space that each of the 571 stores it plans to close occupies? Those employees are out of work, the landlords are left with empty space. Too big to fail? Consider that at just an average of $23,000 (just a guess), those 34,000 out-of-work Circuit City employees will cause $782,000,000 in wages to go out of circulation over the course of the year. That's money that will not be spent in local economies, on rent, food, mortgages, utilities, gas, car payments, movie tickets, etc. The ripple effects from those 34,000 people being unemployed may be a lot worse than say, Citigroup going belly up, which, despite mountains of handouts from the feds, it did.
The bailouts are a bad idea made worse by the money going in the wrong places, to the wrong people. It's the working class that needs the money, that greases the wheels of the economy, that keeps America rolling. They've gotten nothing. Well, they'll get unemployment insurance (most of them), again, paid for with taxpayer dollars. If they had been bailed out and kept working, they'd be paying taxes, not draining the treasury.
Still, investors seemingly still believe in the big business that is Wall Street and the stock markets, which are dead, or at least dying. Looking over some charts of the Dow and S&P, in particular, there's a real possibility that stocks could decline much further from current levels. Try to wrap your mind around the Dow at 4000 and the S&P holding tight to a valuation of around 450.
The operative time period seems to be right around 1985, when Reagan tax policies began to take hold and the era of Wall Street greed took off in full flight. On January 2nd, 1985, the Dow opened at 1211.57, the S&P began the year trading at 167.20. At the peak in 2007, the dow was over 14,000, the S&P sailed as high as 1550.
Just a back-of-the-envelope calculation would conclude that the 30 stocks comprising the Dow increased in value over the 22+ years from 1985-2007 by a factor of 11.5. The more modest S&P companies only would have grown 9-fold in the same period. Are these companies worth 11 1/2 and 9 times what they were in 1985? Doubtful. Besides that, many of the losers have been taken out of the indices and replaced with more healthy firms. To get an idea, here are just some of the companies which were part of the Dow in 1985, and are no longer there: American Can, Bethlehem Steel, Eastman Kodak, General Foods, Goodyear, Inco, International Harvester, Owens-Illinois Glass, Sears Roebuck & Company, Westinghouse Electric, Woolworth. The entire index is periodically, carefully re-engineered to reflect a growing economy, when, in fact, companies coming into the index are growing by largely eating the remains of the companies being shown the door. Similar changes occur periodically in the S&P and other indices. It's all part of the Wall Street shell game.
So, even if these companies are worth 3-4 times what they were in 1985, which some may be, they are still, as a group, overvalued. Prior to August, 2007, they were massively overvalued. Today, they are only slightly overvalued, maybe by 35-60%. Still, as the year of 2009 drags onward and profits collapse, valuations will come back to reality.
The financial engineering which began in the Reagan years, took off during the Clinton era, soar and crashed in the Bush years, was a highly profitable venture for the insiders and those who traded smartly. Those still chasing profits today are, as they say, out of luck. The 9000 level on the Dow won't be seen again for another 3-5 years, at the earliest. By June, 8000 will look like a long way up. Stocks need to revert to reasonable, sustainable levels. And they will.
Nonetheless, investors saw to it to boost their fortunes (or bury them in more malinvestments) pumping stocks higher on Friday.
Dow 8,281.22, +68.73 (0.84%)
Nasdaq 1,529.33, +17.49 (1.16%)
S&P 500 850.12, +6.38 (0.76%)
NYSE Composite 5,387.50, +39.75 (0.74%)
On the day, advancers beat declining issues, 4020-2505. New lows were ahead of new highs, 163-20, which was less of a margin than yesterday. With no more trading prior to Inauguration Day (Monday is a holiday), stocks may get a temporary boost for a few days, though the news flows of poor corporate earnings are sure to keep any such Obama-rally brief.
Volume on Friday was the best seen in weeks, most likely tied to options expiry.
NYSE Volume 1,617,226,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,273,921,000
Commodity traders also got on the inflation fantasy train on Friday. Oil futures gained $1.11, to $35.97. Gold skyrocketed $33.60, to $839.90, while silver was also a star, gaining 78 cents, to $11.22. We knew silver was a good buy under $11, but we didn't think the payoff would come so soon. We'll be buying more at any price under $10.80, actually hoping it goes lower, because inflation is, at this juncture, a pipe dream.
Noting that those aforementioned figures are supplied by corrupt, inept, spendthrift federal government agencies, the real condition is probably worse, though everybody loves the deflation idea. Everybody, that it, except the government and the Federal Reserve, both of whom are hell-bent on re-inflating the economy. They've been trying hard for months, however, to no avail, throwing money at banks and failing financial institutions, auto manufacturers, insurance companies and anybody else who seems in need of an additional $5 billion or more.
It's not working, and it won't. Here's why. Most of the money spent on bailing out banks and other businesses has been carefully squirreled away to enhance reserves, pay down some debt or other or fund continuing operations. For the money to actually result in inflation it needs to be put to new uses, or loaned, i.e., multiplied. Currently, the banks aren't interested in making new loans to anybody. They've been burned too badly by getting too close to that subprime fire, and now they're worried about other loans going bad, like credit cards, equity lines of credit, commercial real estate loans, to say nothing of the massive amounts (more than $2 trillion) of Alt-A and ARM mortgages due to reset in 2009-10.
The Fed, the government and Treasury, if they had an honest bone between them, would do what really would make the economy zip along: cut the payroll tax, institute usury laws (limiting the maximum interest rate chargeable by law) and let the failing banks (and other companies) be sold off in pieces and have new operators start over.
To get an idea of how one-sided and wrong the government help has been, consider that of the $350 billion already doled out via the TARP, all but $15 billion has gone to banks, financial firms and insurance companies (most of that to AIG). Today, electronics chain Circuit City announced that instead of reorganizing, it would liquidate, in effect, changing its bankruptcy status (filed in November) from Chapter 11 to Chapter 7, or, end of story for the company.
So, while the banks are "too big to fail," what about the 34,000 employees that Circuit City will furlough? And the leases that will not be paid on the huge space that each of the 571 stores it plans to close occupies? Those employees are out of work, the landlords are left with empty space. Too big to fail? Consider that at just an average of $23,000 (just a guess), those 34,000 out-of-work Circuit City employees will cause $782,000,000 in wages to go out of circulation over the course of the year. That's money that will not be spent in local economies, on rent, food, mortgages, utilities, gas, car payments, movie tickets, etc. The ripple effects from those 34,000 people being unemployed may be a lot worse than say, Citigroup going belly up, which, despite mountains of handouts from the feds, it did.
The bailouts are a bad idea made worse by the money going in the wrong places, to the wrong people. It's the working class that needs the money, that greases the wheels of the economy, that keeps America rolling. They've gotten nothing. Well, they'll get unemployment insurance (most of them), again, paid for with taxpayer dollars. If they had been bailed out and kept working, they'd be paying taxes, not draining the treasury.
Still, investors seemingly still believe in the big business that is Wall Street and the stock markets, which are dead, or at least dying. Looking over some charts of the Dow and S&P, in particular, there's a real possibility that stocks could decline much further from current levels. Try to wrap your mind around the Dow at 4000 and the S&P holding tight to a valuation of around 450.
The operative time period seems to be right around 1985, when Reagan tax policies began to take hold and the era of Wall Street greed took off in full flight. On January 2nd, 1985, the Dow opened at 1211.57, the S&P began the year trading at 167.20. At the peak in 2007, the dow was over 14,000, the S&P sailed as high as 1550.
Just a back-of-the-envelope calculation would conclude that the 30 stocks comprising the Dow increased in value over the 22+ years from 1985-2007 by a factor of 11.5. The more modest S&P companies only would have grown 9-fold in the same period. Are these companies worth 11 1/2 and 9 times what they were in 1985? Doubtful. Besides that, many of the losers have been taken out of the indices and replaced with more healthy firms. To get an idea, here are just some of the companies which were part of the Dow in 1985, and are no longer there: American Can, Bethlehem Steel, Eastman Kodak, General Foods, Goodyear, Inco, International Harvester, Owens-Illinois Glass, Sears Roebuck & Company, Westinghouse Electric, Woolworth. The entire index is periodically, carefully re-engineered to reflect a growing economy, when, in fact, companies coming into the index are growing by largely eating the remains of the companies being shown the door. Similar changes occur periodically in the S&P and other indices. It's all part of the Wall Street shell game.
So, even if these companies are worth 3-4 times what they were in 1985, which some may be, they are still, as a group, overvalued. Prior to August, 2007, they were massively overvalued. Today, they are only slightly overvalued, maybe by 35-60%. Still, as the year of 2009 drags onward and profits collapse, valuations will come back to reality.
The financial engineering which began in the Reagan years, took off during the Clinton era, soar and crashed in the Bush years, was a highly profitable venture for the insiders and those who traded smartly. Those still chasing profits today are, as they say, out of luck. The 9000 level on the Dow won't be seen again for another 3-5 years, at the earliest. By June, 8000 will look like a long way up. Stocks need to revert to reasonable, sustainable levels. And they will.
Nonetheless, investors saw to it to boost their fortunes (or bury them in more malinvestments) pumping stocks higher on Friday.
Dow 8,281.22, +68.73 (0.84%)
Nasdaq 1,529.33, +17.49 (1.16%)
S&P 500 850.12, +6.38 (0.76%)
NYSE Composite 5,387.50, +39.75 (0.74%)
On the day, advancers beat declining issues, 4020-2505. New lows were ahead of new highs, 163-20, which was less of a margin than yesterday. With no more trading prior to Inauguration Day (Monday is a holiday), stocks may get a temporary boost for a few days, though the news flows of poor corporate earnings are sure to keep any such Obama-rally brief.
Volume on Friday was the best seen in weeks, most likely tied to options expiry.
NYSE Volume 1,617,226,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,273,921,000
Commodity traders also got on the inflation fantasy train on Friday. Oil futures gained $1.11, to $35.97. Gold skyrocketed $33.60, to $839.90, while silver was also a star, gaining 78 cents, to $11.22. We knew silver was a good buy under $11, but we didn't think the payoff would come so soon. We'll be buying more at any price under $10.80, actually hoping it goes lower, because inflation is, at this juncture, a pipe dream.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
A Brief Journey Into No-Man's Land
Stocks continued their race to the bottom today, before a combination of short covering, naked optimism and options expiration (tomorrow) brought stocks off their lows of the day to finish with marginal gains, snapping the 6-day losing streak for the Dow, but not before falling through an area of substantial support around 8150 on the Dow and spending much of the day in a no-man's land between the two most recent lows, 7552.29 on November 23 and 8149.09 on December 1 of last year.
Notably, the rally began precisely when the Dow touched down at the 8000 mark, likely due to program trading and internal meddling by government forces. There are still vested interests attempting to fool the public into thinking that recovery is "right around the corner."
Today, not unlike most other recent sessions, saw stocks plummeting at the opening bell. The culprits were the usual combination of bank bailouts, today's headliner being Bank of America (BOA), which is unsurprisingly in need of government money after taking on failed mortgage lender Countrywide and brokerage Merrill Lynch.
December PPI figures confirmed continued price support weakness and first time unemployment claims spiked once more. The usual stuff of a recession/deflation.
Dow 8,212.49, +12.35 (0.15%)
NASDAQ 1,511.84, +22.20 (1.49%)
S&P 500 843.74, +1.12 (0.13%)
NYSE Composite 5,347.75, +19.07 (0.36%)
While the headline numbers would suggest some calm, the exact opposite is what's occurred and will continue to occur until the absolute bottom is once more tested. That testing time is not far off. In fact, today's activity strongly indicates that a major sell off is imminent, within the next two to three weeks.
Advancing issues barely surpassed decliners, 3608-2970, but new lows expanded in both raw number and margin from new highs, 266-23. The trend line of new lows to new highs is clearly indicating severe weakness, though we hardly need internal indicators at this point. One look at any nightly newscast or government report tells us everything about the direction of the market and the mood of investors.
Volume was much higher than normal, due, no doubt to the aforementioned options play and short covering.
NYSE Volume 7,924,407,500
NASDAQ Volume 1,643,737,000
On the other side of the investing coin, commodities took another hit, with oil futures falling to a three-week low, down $1.88, to $34.67 at the close. Gold dropped $1.50, to $807.30. Silver lost 4 cents to $10.44.
Of interest to the many homeowners who heat with natural gas is the recent, continuing drop in the price of that commodity, settling at $4.89 today. The drubbing (a loss of over $1.00 in just the last week) is particularly interesting considering the record cold temperatures recorded this week across a wide swath of the country. Natural gas is still abundant and reserves are high. The wild cards are somewhat intertwined and interrelated: more vacant homes, lower productivity (fewer factories and businesses in operation, lower employment) and conservation by affected dwellers (lower thermostat levels, better insulation).
The low prices for energy are part of the good news. While not everyone is affected equally by the current quagmire, investors and free-spenders are going to be hurt the most. Also, keeping more than a nominal amount of cash in any major bank could result in unexpected inaccessibility of your funds, but that's been obvious for some time, hasn't it?
Notably, the rally began precisely when the Dow touched down at the 8000 mark, likely due to program trading and internal meddling by government forces. There are still vested interests attempting to fool the public into thinking that recovery is "right around the corner."
Today, not unlike most other recent sessions, saw stocks plummeting at the opening bell. The culprits were the usual combination of bank bailouts, today's headliner being Bank of America (BOA), which is unsurprisingly in need of government money after taking on failed mortgage lender Countrywide and brokerage Merrill Lynch.
December PPI figures confirmed continued price support weakness and first time unemployment claims spiked once more. The usual stuff of a recession/deflation.
Dow 8,212.49, +12.35 (0.15%)
NASDAQ 1,511.84, +22.20 (1.49%)
S&P 500 843.74, +1.12 (0.13%)
NYSE Composite 5,347.75, +19.07 (0.36%)
While the headline numbers would suggest some calm, the exact opposite is what's occurred and will continue to occur until the absolute bottom is once more tested. That testing time is not far off. In fact, today's activity strongly indicates that a major sell off is imminent, within the next two to three weeks.
Advancing issues barely surpassed decliners, 3608-2970, but new lows expanded in both raw number and margin from new highs, 266-23. The trend line of new lows to new highs is clearly indicating severe weakness, though we hardly need internal indicators at this point. One look at any nightly newscast or government report tells us everything about the direction of the market and the mood of investors.
Volume was much higher than normal, due, no doubt to the aforementioned options play and short covering.
NYSE Volume 7,924,407,500
NASDAQ Volume 1,643,737,000
On the other side of the investing coin, commodities took another hit, with oil futures falling to a three-week low, down $1.88, to $34.67 at the close. Gold dropped $1.50, to $807.30. Silver lost 4 cents to $10.44.
Of interest to the many homeowners who heat with natural gas is the recent, continuing drop in the price of that commodity, settling at $4.89 today. The drubbing (a loss of over $1.00 in just the last week) is particularly interesting considering the record cold temperatures recorded this week across a wide swath of the country. Natural gas is still abundant and reserves are high. The wild cards are somewhat intertwined and interrelated: more vacant homes, lower productivity (fewer factories and businesses in operation, lower employment) and conservation by affected dwellers (lower thermostat levels, better insulation).
The low prices for energy are part of the good news. While not everyone is affected equally by the current quagmire, investors and free-spenders are going to be hurt the most. Also, keeping more than a nominal amount of cash in any major bank could result in unexpected inaccessibility of your funds, but that's been obvious for some time, hasn't it?
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
It's Official: Economy Stinks; Wall Street is History
If you went to a restaurant for lunch five days a week, but every other time you went there, you either had a bad meal, poor service, the bill was too high or you noticed bugs in the place, how soon would you be looking for other places to eat, bringing your own lunch or skipping the meal altogether?
In many ways, recent experience in the US stock markets has been analogous to the restaurant scenario and many investors are pondering complete withdrawal. Many already have. Some, like fund managers, broker/dealers, traders and the like have no choice; their livelihoods depend on trading. Their ranks, too, have been recently thinned. After today's complete rout, even more will be hitting the streets.
Dow 8,200.14, -248.42 (2.94%)
NASDAQ 1,489.64, -56.82 (3.67%)
S&P 500 842.62, -29.17 (3.35%)
NYSE Composite 5,328.74, -210.10 (3.79%)
Driving the action today were a number of completely expected developments and economic news on retail trade that was absolutely off the chart.
The day began with those retail trade figures that showed December sales slowing by 2.7% from November (remember this was the height of Christmas season) and 9.8% from a year ago. Expect more store closures and retail bankruptcies to follow on soon.
Other news concerned more banking woes - no kidding! - as Deutsche Bank recorded losses of 4.8 billion Euros in the 4th quarter of '08 and British giant HSBC is reportedly in need of a $30 billion cash infusion. Meanwhile, Citigroup is about as dead as a bank can be, having sold off its brokerage unit, Smith Barney, to Morgan Stanley for a paltry amount between $2 and $3 billion. Inasmuch as Morgan Stanley is getting a horde of brokers and a complete trading operation, the price is indicative of just how deep problems in the financial arena are, that adding over a trillion dollars in active accounts is valued so cheaply.
The biggest banks have gone bust. That's now certain. More carnage will follow as the deflationary environment expands, assimilating every aspect of the world's economies.
Each of the Dow's 30 components suffered losses on Wednesday, led by Citigroup, which lost 23%, down 1.37 to 4.53, below the statutory level at which many funds can hold the security. More than half a billion shares of the financial behemoth changed hands during the session.
Falling issues overwhelmed those few rising, 5617-999. New lows expanded even more beyond new highs, 178-15. Volume continues to be subdued.
NYSE Volume 1,417,663,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,948,551,000
The commodity slump continues apace. Oil dropped another 50 cents, to $37.39. Gold hit a 1-month low, losing $11.90, to $808.80. Silver was down 21 cents, to $10.48.
There isn't likely to be a respite from the string of bad news and poor economic reports over the next few days. PPI and CPI are due out Thursday and Friday, and also on Friday, capacity utilization and industrial production figures are released. with only the inauguration of President Barack Obama to break the spell, corporate earnings will garner most of the headlines by the end of next week.
Through the first week of February, earnings will dominate the news and there's a very real chance of stocks breaking down below the November 20 lows. The Dow is within 750 points, other indices are in similar ranges.
Anyone for lunch?
In many ways, recent experience in the US stock markets has been analogous to the restaurant scenario and many investors are pondering complete withdrawal. Many already have. Some, like fund managers, broker/dealers, traders and the like have no choice; their livelihoods depend on trading. Their ranks, too, have been recently thinned. After today's complete rout, even more will be hitting the streets.
Dow 8,200.14, -248.42 (2.94%)
NASDAQ 1,489.64, -56.82 (3.67%)
S&P 500 842.62, -29.17 (3.35%)
NYSE Composite 5,328.74, -210.10 (3.79%)
Driving the action today were a number of completely expected developments and economic news on retail trade that was absolutely off the chart.
The day began with those retail trade figures that showed December sales slowing by 2.7% from November (remember this was the height of Christmas season) and 9.8% from a year ago. Expect more store closures and retail bankruptcies to follow on soon.
Other news concerned more banking woes - no kidding! - as Deutsche Bank recorded losses of 4.8 billion Euros in the 4th quarter of '08 and British giant HSBC is reportedly in need of a $30 billion cash infusion. Meanwhile, Citigroup is about as dead as a bank can be, having sold off its brokerage unit, Smith Barney, to Morgan Stanley for a paltry amount between $2 and $3 billion. Inasmuch as Morgan Stanley is getting a horde of brokers and a complete trading operation, the price is indicative of just how deep problems in the financial arena are, that adding over a trillion dollars in active accounts is valued so cheaply.
The biggest banks have gone bust. That's now certain. More carnage will follow as the deflationary environment expands, assimilating every aspect of the world's economies.
Each of the Dow's 30 components suffered losses on Wednesday, led by Citigroup, which lost 23%, down 1.37 to 4.53, below the statutory level at which many funds can hold the security. More than half a billion shares of the financial behemoth changed hands during the session.
Falling issues overwhelmed those few rising, 5617-999. New lows expanded even more beyond new highs, 178-15. Volume continues to be subdued.
NYSE Volume 1,417,663,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,948,551,000
The commodity slump continues apace. Oil dropped another 50 cents, to $37.39. Gold hit a 1-month low, losing $11.90, to $808.80. Silver was down 21 cents, to $10.48.
There isn't likely to be a respite from the string of bad news and poor economic reports over the next few days. PPI and CPI are due out Thursday and Friday, and also on Friday, capacity utilization and industrial production figures are released. with only the inauguration of President Barack Obama to break the spell, corporate earnings will garner most of the headlines by the end of next week.
Through the first week of February, earnings will dominate the news and there's a very real chance of stocks breaking down below the November 20 lows. The Dow is within 750 points, other indices are in similar ranges.
Anyone for lunch?
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Balance of Trade Improves; Bernanke on Idiot Tour
Tuesday's split decision (NASDAQ and S&P up; Dow and Comp. down) continued to prove that volatility - along with traders - has departed the scene. Along with the wild swings that typified trading during the height of the crisis (Sept.-Nov.), also gone from the market are (in no particular order): a bunch of banks and financial firms which were losing billions of dollars, trillions of dollars in general, numerous hedge funds, speculators, analysts, traders and a monstrous number of small investors which have fled from pension and retirement funds, 401k's and mutual funds in general.
It's kinda quiet on Wall Street these days, despite the headlines about stimulus, recession, Mad Money, Madoff Money, etc.
The NASDAQ traded in a 30-point range on Tuesday. The Dow's full range, top to bottom, was less than 150 points. Fear has succumbed to complacency, stagnation and apathy. Big money isn't chasing stocks any more. In fact, big money has become smaller and small investors have been removed from the equation. The stock markets have gone from free lunch to eating each other's lunch to no lunch and maybe no dinner either. It's the equivalent of Rosie O'Donnell morphing into Lindsay Lohan (pardon the unappealing mental imagery there).
Dow 8,448.56, -25.41 (0.30%)
NASDAQ 1,546.46, +7.67 (0.50%)
S&P 500 871.79, +1.53 (0.18%)
NYSE Composite 5,538.84, -12.19 (0.22%)
There was a little bit of stunningly good news today that barely received notice. It was that the US Balance of Trade - which has been out of balance for so long that people just expect it to stay that way - actually contracted in November, 2008, to -$40.4 billion.
Owing to the general slowdown in international trade, exports decreased, but so did imports, especially oil (mostly due to price reductions) and goods from China. Overall, the decline in the balance of trade was $16.3 billion from October to November. At that pace, which is likely to be unsustainable, but nice to think about anyway, the US could actually have a positive trade balance by the middle of February. Golly! Maybe this recession isn't such a bad thing after all.
Of course, leave it to Ben Bernanke to throw cold water on rutting hogs. In a speech at the London School of Economics (a place whose students and staff might know a little about economics, so why invite "Helicopter Ben" to speak? - Bernanke offered such nuggets of wisdom as the government and/or the Fed continuing to bail out financial firms with taxpayer money, to the disparagement of the rest of the economy, and having the Fed underwriting everything from student loans and auto loans to credit cards and loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administration.
This is indeed splendid news. The Fed is armed with cash and ready to cover all debts, inflating at will. Ben assured the questioners that the unwinding of the debt incurred by the Fed - obviously some length down the road - will be handled smoothly. Here's hoping that Bernanke's efforts to constrain inflation later on will be better than his panicked attitude on the way down.
For now, however, Ben is hell-bent on reflating the economy, despite the fact that most of the assets which have declined in value - from McMansions to stocks to college degrees - were over-inflated to begin with. Fear not. With people like Ben Bernanke at the helm, our economic ship is sure to continue sinking.
On the markets, advancing issues finished ahead of decliners by a slim margin, 3485-3071. However, new lows continued to expand their edge over new highs, to 118-12, suggesting that the mini-dip we've been in since the beginning of last week is not about to end soon. But, stocks should get a little bit of a boost from the Obama inauguration a week from today, and, being that there are only three trading days before that event (Martin Luther King, Jr. Day is Monday, Jan. 19 and the markets are closed), stocks may avoid falling off the cliff and into the abyss before then.
Volume was once more less than expected, though, as I mentioned yesterday, expectations should be lowered in our new environment.
NYSE Volume 5,623,885,500
NASDAQ Volume 1,965,575,750
Like stocks, commodities were little changed. Oil gained a mere 19 cents, closing at $37.78. Gold dropped 30 cents, to $820.70. Silver dipped 7 cents to $10.68 (buy some!), but the real news was in natural gas futures, which saw the March futures contract on the NYMEX fall to $5.13 per mmbtu., the lowest level in nearly a year. Though it may not be immediately reflected in prices paid by consumers in winter heating bills, the trend is no doubt a friend to anyone who uses natural gas for heat. Energy, including everything from heating oil to gas for cars and trucks, has been the sleeper winner of the recession.
People may lose their jobs and their homes, but at least they aren't likely to freeze to death - at least not in America. we should be happy that our natural gas supply is not under the thumb of the Russians, who have cut delivery through the Ukraine to a host of eastern European nations since last week.
It's kinda quiet on Wall Street these days, despite the headlines about stimulus, recession, Mad Money, Madoff Money, etc.
The NASDAQ traded in a 30-point range on Tuesday. The Dow's full range, top to bottom, was less than 150 points. Fear has succumbed to complacency, stagnation and apathy. Big money isn't chasing stocks any more. In fact, big money has become smaller and small investors have been removed from the equation. The stock markets have gone from free lunch to eating each other's lunch to no lunch and maybe no dinner either. It's the equivalent of Rosie O'Donnell morphing into Lindsay Lohan (pardon the unappealing mental imagery there).
Dow 8,448.56, -25.41 (0.30%)
NASDAQ 1,546.46, +7.67 (0.50%)
S&P 500 871.79, +1.53 (0.18%)
NYSE Composite 5,538.84, -12.19 (0.22%)
There was a little bit of stunningly good news today that barely received notice. It was that the US Balance of Trade - which has been out of balance for so long that people just expect it to stay that way - actually contracted in November, 2008, to -$40.4 billion.
Owing to the general slowdown in international trade, exports decreased, but so did imports, especially oil (mostly due to price reductions) and goods from China. Overall, the decline in the balance of trade was $16.3 billion from October to November. At that pace, which is likely to be unsustainable, but nice to think about anyway, the US could actually have a positive trade balance by the middle of February. Golly! Maybe this recession isn't such a bad thing after all.
Of course, leave it to Ben Bernanke to throw cold water on rutting hogs. In a speech at the London School of Economics (a place whose students and staff might know a little about economics, so why invite "Helicopter Ben" to speak? - Bernanke offered such nuggets of wisdom as the government and/or the Fed continuing to bail out financial firms with taxpayer money, to the disparagement of the rest of the economy, and having the Fed underwriting everything from student loans and auto loans to credit cards and loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administration.
This is indeed splendid news. The Fed is armed with cash and ready to cover all debts, inflating at will. Ben assured the questioners that the unwinding of the debt incurred by the Fed - obviously some length down the road - will be handled smoothly. Here's hoping that Bernanke's efforts to constrain inflation later on will be better than his panicked attitude on the way down.
For now, however, Ben is hell-bent on reflating the economy, despite the fact that most of the assets which have declined in value - from McMansions to stocks to college degrees - were over-inflated to begin with. Fear not. With people like Ben Bernanke at the helm, our economic ship is sure to continue sinking.
On the markets, advancing issues finished ahead of decliners by a slim margin, 3485-3071. However, new lows continued to expand their edge over new highs, to 118-12, suggesting that the mini-dip we've been in since the beginning of last week is not about to end soon. But, stocks should get a little bit of a boost from the Obama inauguration a week from today, and, being that there are only three trading days before that event (Martin Luther King, Jr. Day is Monday, Jan. 19 and the markets are closed), stocks may avoid falling off the cliff and into the abyss before then.
Volume was once more less than expected, though, as I mentioned yesterday, expectations should be lowered in our new environment.
NYSE Volume 5,623,885,500
NASDAQ Volume 1,965,575,750
Like stocks, commodities were little changed. Oil gained a mere 19 cents, closing at $37.78. Gold dropped 30 cents, to $820.70. Silver dipped 7 cents to $10.68 (buy some!), but the real news was in natural gas futures, which saw the March futures contract on the NYMEX fall to $5.13 per mmbtu., the lowest level in nearly a year. Though it may not be immediately reflected in prices paid by consumers in winter heating bills, the trend is no doubt a friend to anyone who uses natural gas for heat. Energy, including everything from heating oil to gas for cars and trucks, has been the sleeper winner of the recession.
People may lose their jobs and their homes, but at least they aren't likely to freeze to death - at least not in America. we should be happy that our natural gas supply is not under the thumb of the Russians, who have cut delivery through the Ukraine to a host of eastern European nations since last week.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
