I took this past weekend to catch up on some reading and focus my thoughts on the economy, the stock market and government.
Then I watched the Super Bowl, which worked out well enough for me. Though the Cardinals did not win, as I predicted, the Steelers did not cover the spread, which I also predicted, and, since covering the line is all that matters to gamblers, I retain my status as a near-genius football picker. Like anything else in our crazy world, we are judged most by our last effort. In the NFL prognostication business, that last effort each season happens to be the Super Bowl, so I'm good to go until August.
One final note on the game: Arizona nearly killed itself throughout the entire contest and, without the numerous mistakes and crippling penalties, they would have won easily. But, no excuses. All hail the Pittsburgh Steelers.
So, getting back to my laser-like focus on the economy, stock market and government, I can say one thing that applies to them all: They stink. Our economy is so deeply in debt that radical changes are needed for it to ever be fixed and workable. The government is simply too corrupt, too inept and too rooted in old, failed ideologies to make the necessary changes. As for the stock market, well, that's just a rigged craps table. You can place all the bets you like, but chances are you're going to lose because the game is rigged from the inside, for the insiders.
Monday was no exception to the rigging of Wall Street. At 3:00 pm, all indices were at or near the lows of the day. By the close, the losses were pared and the NASDAQ actually finished with a decent gain, that owing to the flawed thinking that tech firms would benefit from the new plans being shuffled about by the Obama administration and the Democratic congress.
Dow 7,936.75, -64.11 (0.80%)
NASDAQ 1,494.43, +18.01 (1.22%)
S&P 500 825.43, -0.45 (0.05%)
NYSE Composite 5,166.47, -29.32 (0.56%)
The pols, however, are a sideshow. Whatever they compose in "stimulus" legislation, it won't help stem the rising tide of defaults and bankruptcies (everything from individuals to banks, to cities, counties and states), nor will they correct the essential flaw in our system: government at all levels which is too corrupt, too large and too endeared to their own hold on power. Americans face some dim prospects in the near future. There is either going to be a prolonged economic disaster (caused by Wall Street and the federal government) or riots and overthrow of the government, or martial law.
None of those are palatable, but, believe it or not, the one in the middle (riots and revolution) is probably the best solution.
Clean slate. Put all the fraudsters and criminals from Wall Street to Washington behind bars or at least, out of positions of power. Being that the government has all the money and guns, it's probably going to be easier for most Americans to simply submit to martial law (this should occur by September) or leave the country (Get those passports now!).
The imbecility of the American public cannot be underestimated. They continue to elect leaders from the same two entrenched, powerful parties, and expect different results. When the newly-elected get to their appointed positions of power, they have become members of the club. They are no longer Democrats and Republicans, they are all elitists, taking their orders from the oligarchs (CEOs) behind the various Wall Street fraud schemes.
That the entire house of cards is collapsing upon them at once is a very large problem, one which neither the Wall Streeters or the federal (or state) government operatives seem to be able to right. They're screwed, and because of that, the American people is about to be screwed even more.
Already, Californians are getting IOUs instead of tax refund checks. The Governor and the legislature wants to raise taxes and fees to fill the burgeoning budget gap. Higher taxes and fees are also being bandied about in state houses from New York to Wisconsin, Florida to Arkansas, Massachusetts to Michigan. The states are facing monumental budget shortfalls and instead of cutting pay to overpaid civil servants, they're opting for more blood (tax revenue) from constituents.
From the federal level on down, government has the equation all wrong. They're facing shortfalls because there isn't enough revenue, because people are out of work, or out of their homes, or both. Raising taxes on the rest of the population isn't going to repair that condition. In fact, their higher tax solutions will only serve to infuriate the masses even more.
Backing up my contention that the market is rigged (a small loss today instead of a big one) are the internals, which worsened considerably today. Declining issues outnumbered advancers, 3408-3126. The number of new lows expanded to 357, while the new highs contracted to 17. These are unmistakable signs of a worsening condition. The indices are heading back to the November 20 lows, likely to exceed them by a long shot on the downside.
NYSE Volume 1,326,851,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,014,289,000
The commodity markets, much less prone to outright manipulation, showed continuing signs of deflationary strain. Oil futures fell $1.60, to $40.08. Gold was overtaken by profit-takers, losing $21.20, to $907.20. Silver also fell, by 15 cents, to $12.42.
Buy silver, food and bullets.
This morning, I undertook a small test of the value of stocks as investments. I'll spare you the math, but I decided to look at what a basket of 10 stocks, purchased in February, 1999, would look like today. My selections were household names, all of which paid dividends: Intel (INTC), IBM (IBM), General Electric (GE), ExxonMobil (XON), FedEx (FDX), Bank of America (BAC), Caterpillar (CAT), McDonald's (MCD), Wal-Mart (WMT) and Coca-Cola (KO). In my example, I purchased $10,000 of each stock, for a total investment of $100,000.
The results, considering that I didn't pick all outright losers (In fact, 6 of the 10 were higher today than in 1999.), was an eye-opener. Before all taxes and fees, the $100,000 invested in 1999 would have been worth just $2347 less today. Adding in dividends, that number became positive, to the tune of a total return of $27,953. Not bad. right?
Not good, is my response. A simple fixed investment retuning 4% annually would have produced a profit of $48,024 before tax considerations. My takeaway on this is simple: Wall Street is a major fraud, built on high risk. Your money would be much better off in a simple savings account with a fair rate of interest. Therein lies the major disconnect of our age: the difference between saving and investing. Most individuals are not investors, just as most investors are not savers. Over the last 40-50 years, we've been fed a steady diet that investing was the key to prosperity, when the truth - all along - was that saving was the real key.
Americans can now focus on saving, thrift and intelligent consumerism, rather than engage in the highly-leveraged, risk-ridden world of Wall Street. Let the rich take the risk. The rest of us can prosper well enough without them.
And for the government, how can be be confident in a leadership that allows tax cheats to take over some of the most critical and demanding jobs in government? I'm talking about Tim Geithner and Tom Daschle, each of whom evaded taxes knowingly and yet will be confirmed as Secretaries of Treasury and Health and Human Services, respectively. Geithner's already been seated. Daschle has widespread support, including President Obama himself.
Our institutions have been corrupted beyond any hope for a reasonable repair. Our economy is a black hole and Americans will need new leaders and renewed resolve to get through this period with our nation intact. God save us all.
Monday, February 2, 2009
Friday, January 30, 2009
January Barometer Predicts Down Year
For all of the optimism associated with a 3-or-4-day winning streak (depending on the index) and a big upside day on Wednesday, it may come as somewhat of a surprise to some that the major US equity indices all ended the week with losses.
The widely-watched Dow Jones Industrial Average tacked on more losses to Thursday's massive beat-down in Friday's one-sided trade, sending the index into negative ground, down 77 points for the week. The NASDAQ fared better, down less than a point since last Friday. The S&P 500 gave back 6 points, while the NYSE Composite finished higher by a slim 0.28 points.
Were the markets stabilizing? Hardly. Investors not only had to navigate through a slew of 4th quarter and full year 2008 earnings reports, but the stew of demoralizing economic reports continued in deluge fashion. There were some hopeful signs - like the government's initial estimate of 4th quarter '08 GDP posting a decline of 3.8% (better than estimates) - but not enough to keep serious money on the sidelines or increasingly heading toward bonds and precious metals.
Dow 8,000.86, -148.15 (1.82%)
NASDAQ 1,476.42, -31.42 (2.08%)
S&P 500 825.88, -19.26 (2.28%)
NYSE Composite 5,195.83, -105.07 (1.98%)
Also, the averages are not showing any signs of making upside progress. Since the fallout of November 20, they have recovered slightly, but mostly went sideways.
This being the final trading day of January, it should come as no comfort that the January Barometer is clearly indicating a down year for stocks in 2009, with all major indices closing the month anywhere from 7 to 9% lower than they had begun. Based on the adage "as goes January, so goes the year," the January Barometer has as solid a track record as any simple indicator, with accuracy in the range of upwards of 80%, depending on which sources are cited.
The day's internals were as unappealing as the headline numbers. Declining issues outflanked advancers, 4558-1903. There were more new lows than new highs, 253-12. This is the most troubling of all indicators, due entirely to its persistence. There have been only a handful of days where this condition did not persist - i.e., more new lows than highs in the daily data - since I have been tracking it since October 31, 2007. This is a 15-month, one-sided trend that has always declared general direction.
Of course, this was the natural conclusion of a 54 or 58-week bull market from 2003-2007 - one of the longest in history - built mostly on bad investments, incompetent fiscal policy, absence of regulations and general thievery. That's why the correction has been so severe. The foundation of the previous bull was built on sand.
Volume was as strong on Friday as it was on Tuesday's 200-point Dow rally, which also is not encouraging for stocks. Not to worry, the same kind of serious correction is occurring around the globe.
NYSE Volume 1,500,684,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,108,279,000
Commodities were the place to be. Crude oil was up 24 cents, to $41.68, though natural gas futures fell to $4.39, an obviator of oversupply. Gold zipped ahead $21.90, to $928.40, a multi-week high. Silver advanced 42 cents, to $12.57, making silver no longer a bargain and possibly short-term oversold, though it may be risky to rest on that assumption.
Employment and housing continue to be the main trouble spots in the economy, and those areas are likely to continue to deteriorate until there's some real relief for the middle class in government policy, namely, immediate tax relief via relaxed withholding, though our pals in Washington don't seem to like that idea. Since asking for a government wage and spending freeze would likely be too much, I won't bother to ask for actual spending cuts. The so-called "leaders" of our age are proving to be among the most incompetent bunch in history (unless you buy the conspiracy side of the argument for "big government"), unable to manage affairs of state effectively.
The world will wait while Washington winces, whines and wails. That's unfortunate because people must move on towards an improved existence. It is the history of civilization and should not be short-circuited by failures of financial creations.
To replace the broken models of the past, new ideas must be developed .
The widely-watched Dow Jones Industrial Average tacked on more losses to Thursday's massive beat-down in Friday's one-sided trade, sending the index into negative ground, down 77 points for the week. The NASDAQ fared better, down less than a point since last Friday. The S&P 500 gave back 6 points, while the NYSE Composite finished higher by a slim 0.28 points.
Were the markets stabilizing? Hardly. Investors not only had to navigate through a slew of 4th quarter and full year 2008 earnings reports, but the stew of demoralizing economic reports continued in deluge fashion. There were some hopeful signs - like the government's initial estimate of 4th quarter '08 GDP posting a decline of 3.8% (better than estimates) - but not enough to keep serious money on the sidelines or increasingly heading toward bonds and precious metals.
Dow 8,000.86, -148.15 (1.82%)
NASDAQ 1,476.42, -31.42 (2.08%)
S&P 500 825.88, -19.26 (2.28%)
NYSE Composite 5,195.83, -105.07 (1.98%)
Also, the averages are not showing any signs of making upside progress. Since the fallout of November 20, they have recovered slightly, but mostly went sideways.
This being the final trading day of January, it should come as no comfort that the January Barometer is clearly indicating a down year for stocks in 2009, with all major indices closing the month anywhere from 7 to 9% lower than they had begun. Based on the adage "as goes January, so goes the year," the January Barometer has as solid a track record as any simple indicator, with accuracy in the range of upwards of 80%, depending on which sources are cited.
The day's internals were as unappealing as the headline numbers. Declining issues outflanked advancers, 4558-1903. There were more new lows than new highs, 253-12. This is the most troubling of all indicators, due entirely to its persistence. There have been only a handful of days where this condition did not persist - i.e., more new lows than highs in the daily data - since I have been tracking it since October 31, 2007. This is a 15-month, one-sided trend that has always declared general direction.
Of course, this was the natural conclusion of a 54 or 58-week bull market from 2003-2007 - one of the longest in history - built mostly on bad investments, incompetent fiscal policy, absence of regulations and general thievery. That's why the correction has been so severe. The foundation of the previous bull was built on sand.
Volume was as strong on Friday as it was on Tuesday's 200-point Dow rally, which also is not encouraging for stocks. Not to worry, the same kind of serious correction is occurring around the globe.
NYSE Volume 1,500,684,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,108,279,000
Commodities were the place to be. Crude oil was up 24 cents, to $41.68, though natural gas futures fell to $4.39, an obviator of oversupply. Gold zipped ahead $21.90, to $928.40, a multi-week high. Silver advanced 42 cents, to $12.57, making silver no longer a bargain and possibly short-term oversold, though it may be risky to rest on that assumption.
Employment and housing continue to be the main trouble spots in the economy, and those areas are likely to continue to deteriorate until there's some real relief for the middle class in government policy, namely, immediate tax relief via relaxed withholding, though our pals in Washington don't seem to like that idea. Since asking for a government wage and spending freeze would likely be too much, I won't bother to ask for actual spending cuts. The so-called "leaders" of our age are proving to be among the most incompetent bunch in history (unless you buy the conspiracy side of the argument for "big government"), unable to manage affairs of state effectively.
The world will wait while Washington winces, whines and wails. That's unfortunate because people must move on towards an improved existence. It is the history of civilization and should not be short-circuited by failures of financial creations.
To replace the broken models of the past, new ideas must be developed .
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Investors Find No Easy Way Out
The stock market is a fickle beast.
No sooner than one believes one thing, conditions change to make the opposite true. That's why stocks go up and down. Yes, really.
After yesterday's rally on news that Tim Geithner was confirmed as Treasury Secretary and was boosting plans for a "bad bank" bailout for the endangered species that are large commercial banks, and the Obama administration was toasting with congressional cohorts their $800+ billion stimulus plan, news changed.
Starbucks plans to close more stores and lay off 7000 more employees. Ditto Boeing, ditto Kodak, and others. New home sales for 2008 sank to their lowest level in 26 years. There were record numbers of first-time unemployment claims filed last week. Durable goods orders fell another 2.6% in just one month. Pundits far and wide were assailing the stimulus plan as too little, too late. In the relatively short span between Wednesday's closing bell and Thursday's open (a scant 17 1/2 hours) the mood had changed.
But, if you're a chartist with keen observational skills, you already knew that stocks could not sustain any meaningful rally. As I mentioned just two days ago, in my post, Why Stocks Won't Move:
Well, on Wednesday, the Dow did gain 200 points. And on Thursday, it fell by 226, closing at 8149.01. Hmmm... seems somebody's a penny off. Close enough, though, because nobody's perfect. Since 4:00 pm this afternoon, however, I have been answering the phone with the salutation, "Hello, resident genius."
Dow 8,149.01, -226.44 (2.70%)
NASDAQ 1,507.84, -50.50 (3.24%)
S&P 500 845.14, -28.95 (3.31%)
NYSE Composite 5,300.77, -200.69 (3.65%)
The condition of the economy is decidedly poor. The politicos in Washington can try to spin in any way they like, but many Americans - squeezed by ridiculous utility bills, overtaxed to near-death, and now many of them out of work and soon to be out on the street - are not schmoozing with cocktails after work. Many are just lucky enough to be able to afford dinner and maybe a malt liquor or pale ale.
Once again, the big-wigs in DC are sending the same wrong message as the CEOs and top executives on Wall Street. The Wall Street crowd has been chided by the government, so it's the public's right to express anger at elected officials.
Shame on you, Mr. Obama, Ms. Pelosi, Mr. Reid, Mr. McConnell, Mr. Boehner. Having cocktails while people are hungry, homeless, jobless and yearning smacks of elitism. I voted for Mr. Obama. I'm sure he was a better choice than McCain, but I'll say this just once: "Bush wrecked the economy, now it's Obama's turn to make it worse." I hope I'm wrong.
On the day, declining issues overwhelmed advancers, 5200-1333. 176 stocks made new 52-week lows. Only 16 made new highs. Volume was uninspired.
NYSE Volume 1,435,231,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,939,281,000
Oil fell another 72 cents, to $41.44. Gold picked up the slack, gaining $16.50, to $906.50. Silver also was higher, up 18 cents, to $12.15. Lean hogs and live cattle were little changed, but they are much lower than at this time last year. Food and energy have fallen precipitously in the deflationary cycle, perhaps providing some little modicum of comfort in this era of widespread distress.
Tomorrow, the government releases preliminary data on 4th quarter GDP and it's expected to show a contraction of roughly 5%. While that news will be neither surprising nor conclusive, it will confirm that the economy is in the throes of a deep, dark, dismal retreat.
Sure, Senator, the Resident Genius would like a screaming orgasm and some of that pulled pork you're passing around, thank you.
No sooner than one believes one thing, conditions change to make the opposite true. That's why stocks go up and down. Yes, really.
After yesterday's rally on news that Tim Geithner was confirmed as Treasury Secretary and was boosting plans for a "bad bank" bailout for the endangered species that are large commercial banks, and the Obama administration was toasting with congressional cohorts their $800+ billion stimulus plan, news changed.
Starbucks plans to close more stores and lay off 7000 more employees. Ditto Boeing, ditto Kodak, and others. New home sales for 2008 sank to their lowest level in 26 years. There were record numbers of first-time unemployment claims filed last week. Durable goods orders fell another 2.6% in just one month. Pundits far and wide were assailing the stimulus plan as too little, too late. In the relatively short span between Wednesday's closing bell and Thursday's open (a scant 17 1/2 hours) the mood had changed.
But, if you're a chartist with keen observational skills, you already knew that stocks could not sustain any meaningful rally. As I mentioned just two days ago, in my post, Why Stocks Won't Move:
The US equity markets are so solidly stalled, constipated and intractable for one simple reason. They have yet to retest the November 20 lows. Until that task is accomplished, there will be no meaningful rally in stocks, as there is no chart confirmation and thus, no commitment.
This is not to say that the Dow cannot escape the clutches of 7500 and change, though the current battle line clearly has been set at the most reasonable level of 8149. Stocks could easily advance another couple hundred points without anyone questioning whether or not they're overbought.
Well, on Wednesday, the Dow did gain 200 points. And on Thursday, it fell by 226, closing at 8149.01. Hmmm... seems somebody's a penny off. Close enough, though, because nobody's perfect. Since 4:00 pm this afternoon, however, I have been answering the phone with the salutation, "Hello, resident genius."
Dow 8,149.01, -226.44 (2.70%)
NASDAQ 1,507.84, -50.50 (3.24%)
S&P 500 845.14, -28.95 (3.31%)
NYSE Composite 5,300.77, -200.69 (3.65%)
The condition of the economy is decidedly poor. The politicos in Washington can try to spin in any way they like, but many Americans - squeezed by ridiculous utility bills, overtaxed to near-death, and now many of them out of work and soon to be out on the street - are not schmoozing with cocktails after work. Many are just lucky enough to be able to afford dinner and maybe a malt liquor or pale ale.
Once again, the big-wigs in DC are sending the same wrong message as the CEOs and top executives on Wall Street. The Wall Street crowd has been chided by the government, so it's the public's right to express anger at elected officials.
Shame on you, Mr. Obama, Ms. Pelosi, Mr. Reid, Mr. McConnell, Mr. Boehner. Having cocktails while people are hungry, homeless, jobless and yearning smacks of elitism. I voted for Mr. Obama. I'm sure he was a better choice than McCain, but I'll say this just once: "Bush wrecked the economy, now it's Obama's turn to make it worse." I hope I'm wrong.
On the day, declining issues overwhelmed advancers, 5200-1333. 176 stocks made new 52-week lows. Only 16 made new highs. Volume was uninspired.
NYSE Volume 1,435,231,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,939,281,000
Oil fell another 72 cents, to $41.44. Gold picked up the slack, gaining $16.50, to $906.50. Silver also was higher, up 18 cents, to $12.15. Lean hogs and live cattle were little changed, but they are much lower than at this time last year. Food and energy have fallen precipitously in the deflationary cycle, perhaps providing some little modicum of comfort in this era of widespread distress.
Tomorrow, the government releases preliminary data on 4th quarter GDP and it's expected to show a contraction of roughly 5%. While that news will be neither surprising nor conclusive, it will confirm that the economy is in the throes of a deep, dark, dismal retreat.
Sure, Senator, the Resident Genius would like a screaming orgasm and some of that pulled pork you're passing around, thank you.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Fed Doublespeak, Bad Bank Idea Signal Bull Run
Forget the idea that earnings move the market. Most of the firms which reported 4Q and full year results between Tuesday and Wednesday's close actually showed negative comparisons to year-ago figures for both revenue and earnings. What mattered most today was that congress is about to pass a nearly $900 billion spending bill and Tim Geithner, the newly-confirmed Treasury Secretary, will go about buying up all of the bad assets on the books of the major banks, in effect, creating a "bad bank" for which to orderly dispose of those nasty ill-advised and now non-performing loans.
It's a great day for inflationists. Unfortunately, it's a bad day for the value of the dollar and not such a great day for anybody who recently lost his or her job. There's nothing in the bill which will actually create new, private sector jobs, which is what - long term - is needed to stabilize and grow the economy.
Never minding the inflationary implications of government boosterism, investors went absolutely ballistic, sending the US indices on a rocket ride higher.
Dow 8,375.45, +200.72 (2.46%)
NASDAQ 1,558.34, +53.44 (3.55%)
S&P 500 874.09, +28.38 (3.36%)
NYSE Composite 5,501.49, +186.05 (3.50%)
The measure passed in the House contains a hodge-podge of government spending and tax relief, though nothing which directly affects either housing or employment, currently the two keys to any kind of economic betterment. Much of the criticism being directed at the government stimulus plan is that it will not begin working soon enough to have a meaningful near-term impact.
The Fed, after meeting for two days, did exactly nothing more than snort out a few missives about how the economy continued to deteriorate and how they were prepared to engage in - though they are not currently - direct purchases of Treasury debt securities. Keeping the key rate at "Zero to 25 basis points" the Fed is effectively out of policy bullets. Clearly, from the release notes of their meeting, deflation is the enemy, though it is not mentioned by name. Included was this nugget, which underscores the Fed's inflation leaning:
Just how the Fed manages to justify the differences of "inflation" and "price stability" was not covered by the release because, of course, their position is impossible to attain.
Today's speculative fling was obviously based on false hopes in that the market "gapped up" at the opening bell. It's a sign that investor optimism has not been fully demolished by recent events. And it was just yesterday that I mentioned that stocks could only gain a few hundred points because they had yet to retest the lows. How prescient of the market... and me!
Markets hate gaps and always find ways to fill them. This market had been stuck between 8149 and 8200 on the Dow. Today, it simply ignored the level. Danger lurks in today's gaps, but the public is being prepared for another onslaught of negative news, most likely not until March, however. Clearly, stocks have further to fall from these levels.
Optimism was as naked today as a bull's backside as advancing issues trounced decliners, 5412-1178. Plenty of pent-up investor demand went to work. Volume was reasonable. New lows outpolled new highs, 111-15.
NYSE Volume 1,548,266,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,160,559,000
Speculators in commodity markets were less convinced. Oil gained a sparing 58 cents, to $42.16. Gold fell $11.40, to $890.00, while silver lost 21 cents, to $11.96. The unmistakable signal from commodities are bearish and deflationary, right in line with slack demand and tight credit markets.
After the bell, Starbucks reported earnings and revenue that missed estimates and says it will cut 6,700 jobs in '09.
Enjoy your latte. The government and Wall Street are supplying the froth.
It's a great day for inflationists. Unfortunately, it's a bad day for the value of the dollar and not such a great day for anybody who recently lost his or her job. There's nothing in the bill which will actually create new, private sector jobs, which is what - long term - is needed to stabilize and grow the economy.
Never minding the inflationary implications of government boosterism, investors went absolutely ballistic, sending the US indices on a rocket ride higher.
Dow 8,375.45, +200.72 (2.46%)
NASDAQ 1,558.34, +53.44 (3.55%)
S&P 500 874.09, +28.38 (3.36%)
NYSE Composite 5,501.49, +186.05 (3.50%)
The measure passed in the House contains a hodge-podge of government spending and tax relief, though nothing which directly affects either housing or employment, currently the two keys to any kind of economic betterment. Much of the criticism being directed at the government stimulus plan is that it will not begin working soon enough to have a meaningful near-term impact.
The Fed, after meeting for two days, did exactly nothing more than snort out a few missives about how the economy continued to deteriorate and how they were prepared to engage in - though they are not currently - direct purchases of Treasury debt securities. Keeping the key rate at "Zero to 25 basis points" the Fed is effectively out of policy bullets. Clearly, from the release notes of their meeting, deflation is the enemy, though it is not mentioned by name. Included was this nugget, which underscores the Fed's inflation leaning:
Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term.
Just how the Fed manages to justify the differences of "inflation" and "price stability" was not covered by the release because, of course, their position is impossible to attain.
Today's speculative fling was obviously based on false hopes in that the market "gapped up" at the opening bell. It's a sign that investor optimism has not been fully demolished by recent events. And it was just yesterday that I mentioned that stocks could only gain a few hundred points because they had yet to retest the lows. How prescient of the market... and me!
Markets hate gaps and always find ways to fill them. This market had been stuck between 8149 and 8200 on the Dow. Today, it simply ignored the level. Danger lurks in today's gaps, but the public is being prepared for another onslaught of negative news, most likely not until March, however. Clearly, stocks have further to fall from these levels.
Optimism was as naked today as a bull's backside as advancing issues trounced decliners, 5412-1178. Plenty of pent-up investor demand went to work. Volume was reasonable. New lows outpolled new highs, 111-15.
NYSE Volume 1,548,266,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,160,559,000
Speculators in commodity markets were less convinced. Oil gained a sparing 58 cents, to $42.16. Gold fell $11.40, to $890.00, while silver lost 21 cents, to $11.96. The unmistakable signal from commodities are bearish and deflationary, right in line with slack demand and tight credit markets.
After the bell, Starbucks reported earnings and revenue that missed estimates and says it will cut 6,700 jobs in '09.
Enjoy your latte. The government and Wall Street are supplying the froth.
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Why Stocks Won't Move
The US equity markets are so solidly stalled, constipated and intractable for one simple reason. They have yet to retest the November 20 lows. Until that task is accomplished, there will be no meaningful rally in stocks, as there is no chart confirmation and thus, no commitment.
This is not to say that the Dow cannot escape the clutches of 7500 and change, though the current battle line clearly has been set at the most reasonable level of 8149. Stocks could easily advance another couple hundred points without anyone questioning whether or not they're overbought.
Stocks look cheap if you're an optimist. They appear somewhat more ghastly if you are not so easily persuaded. Realists are somewhere in the middle and probably, because they generally prove to think with their heads, invested in gold. (For those of you who cannot afford much gold, there is always silver, just as good, and historically cheap by comparison.)
For purposes of clarification, the Dow closed above our magic number today, though the entire day's range was covered by yesterday's, so the import of Tuesday's tidy gain was minimal in the larger scheme.
Dow 8,174.73 Up 58.70 (0.72%)
NASDAQ 1,504.90 Up 15.44 (1.04%)
S&P 500 845.71 Up 9.14 (1.09%)
NYSE Compos 5,315.44 Up 70.83 (1.35%)
The usual spate of bad news helped keep investors in place on Tuesday, though there is still evidence that not everyone has been convinced that stocks are not where one should be putting his or her money.
More than 10,000 additional layoffs were announced on Tuesday, from companies as broad-based as Best Buy, Corning, IBM, Target, Baker Hughes and Avery Dennison. More than 70,000 corporate layoffs were announced on Monday.
NYSE Volume 1,171,004,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,819,427,000
The Conference Board also reported, earlier in the day, that their measure of consumer confidence had fallen to an all-time low of 37.7. The Case Shiller Home Price Index found that home prices had fallen by 18.18% in November from a year ago, the largest such decline in the history of the survey.
Advancing issues galloped ahead of decliners, 4253-2266. There were more new lows than new highs, 172-16. Volume was once again pathetic and indicative of a market with no conviction whatsoever.
And who can blame them? Layoffs continue to be announced daily, corporate profits, though many are beating expectations, are generally lower than for the same period last year. Many companies are showing significant strains and signs that business has slowed in an unprecedented manner.
Oil was also a victim of the deflationary environment, losing $4.15, to $41.58. Gold dipped $9.30, to $901.40. Silver bucked the trend, gaining 12 cents, to $12.18. Natural gas continued to wallow near lows, losing a penny to $4.44.
This is not to say that the Dow cannot escape the clutches of 7500 and change, though the current battle line clearly has been set at the most reasonable level of 8149. Stocks could easily advance another couple hundred points without anyone questioning whether or not they're overbought.
Stocks look cheap if you're an optimist. They appear somewhat more ghastly if you are not so easily persuaded. Realists are somewhere in the middle and probably, because they generally prove to think with their heads, invested in gold. (For those of you who cannot afford much gold, there is always silver, just as good, and historically cheap by comparison.)
For purposes of clarification, the Dow closed above our magic number today, though the entire day's range was covered by yesterday's, so the import of Tuesday's tidy gain was minimal in the larger scheme.
Dow 8,174.73 Up 58.70 (0.72%)
NASDAQ 1,504.90 Up 15.44 (1.04%)
S&P 500 845.71 Up 9.14 (1.09%)
NYSE Compos 5,315.44 Up 70.83 (1.35%)
The usual spate of bad news helped keep investors in place on Tuesday, though there is still evidence that not everyone has been convinced that stocks are not where one should be putting his or her money.
More than 10,000 additional layoffs were announced on Tuesday, from companies as broad-based as Best Buy, Corning, IBM, Target, Baker Hughes and Avery Dennison. More than 70,000 corporate layoffs were announced on Monday.
NYSE Volume 1,171,004,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,819,427,000
The Conference Board also reported, earlier in the day, that their measure of consumer confidence had fallen to an all-time low of 37.7. The Case Shiller Home Price Index found that home prices had fallen by 18.18% in November from a year ago, the largest such decline in the history of the survey.
Advancing issues galloped ahead of decliners, 4253-2266. There were more new lows than new highs, 172-16. Volume was once again pathetic and indicative of a market with no conviction whatsoever.
And who can blame them? Layoffs continue to be announced daily, corporate profits, though many are beating expectations, are generally lower than for the same period last year. Many companies are showing significant strains and signs that business has slowed in an unprecedented manner.
Oil was also a victim of the deflationary environment, losing $4.15, to $41.58. Gold dipped $9.30, to $901.40. Silver bucked the trend, gaining 12 cents, to $12.18. Natural gas continued to wallow near lows, losing a penny to $4.44.
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