Bears Aren't Finished Yet.. Neither Are Bulls

A fascinating day a trading, which began in the red, finished there, lending support to the idea that the market had become overbought in the near term. All of the major indices gave back, led by the broadest measures, the NASDAQ and NYSE Composite.

I am having trouble with the interface. I cannot format properly, so I am going to try to keep this brief.

Dow 7,660.37, -115.49 (1.49%)
Nasdaq 1,518.63, -37.14 (2.39%)
S&P 500 806.36, -16.56 (2.01%)
NYSE Composite 5,064.33, -121.53 (2.34%)

Declining issues beat back advancers, 4466-2048. New lows continued their dominance over new highs, 122-30. Volume was lower than the past five to six sessions; not surprising considering the long run of gains over the past two weeks. While this rally may be essentially over for the time being, it could gain traction again at any time€.

NYSE Volume 1,645,186,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,033,304,000

Crude oil finished with a gain of 18 cents, at another high for the year of $53.98. Gold fell again, though it seems overdone, down $28.70, to $923.80. Silver slipped 50 cents, to $13.38.

There was little in the way of economic news, and all the indices finished near their session lows.

My apologies again for the brevity of today's post, but the interface has gone wacky. Hopefully, these matters will be cleared up before long and I'll be able to get back to more poignant posting.

Now THAT Was a Rally! Dow Up 497 Points

If there was any doubt that the biggest rallies occur during bear markets, today's stunning straight-up market move should certainly expunge those wayward thoughts.

The biggest problem (there are many) with this outsize Monday Melt-up is that it absolutely will not last. This was all about debasing the currency to pay off the criminals on Wall Street to keep the party going. If you were smart, you jumped in and grabbed your share of the loot. If you are dumb, like most investors, you sat back and watched. Maybe your 401k looks a little fatter today. Maybe you are thinking about investing a little more tomorrow, or next week, or next month. Maybe you've just given up and have doing the really smart thing and buying gold and silver, or just silver.

According to CNNMoney.com, whom I have no reason to doubt, today's gain on the Dow was the largest since November 21, 2008, meaning it was the best run of this year, and probably one of the top three or four days ever. Congratulations!

What CNNMoney is not reporting is that the November 21, 2008 move of 494.13 is that today's move was bigger (by 3 whole points) and certainly larger by percentage (the Dow was running between 7500 and 8000 then) and that November day followed two days in which the Dow dropped a cumulative 872 points. So, that was a snap-back rally (and a dumb one too), whereas today's was based on two specific news items: the administration's unveiling of their latest ploy to sop up bad bank assets - the Public Private Investment Partnership, or PPIP for short - and the number of existing home sales reported for February.

The new home sales showed a 5.1% increase over January sales, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), but noted that the figure (4.72 million units) is still 4.6% below February last year and that the median value of homes sold was 15.5% lower than last year. One actual bright sign was in California, of all places, where the median home price actually rose for the first time in three years.

As for the PPIP, I bow to Nobel Economist Paul Krugman, who sort of peed all over Geithner's plan in the New York Times Saturday morning, saying:

This plan will produce big gains for banks that didn’t actually need any help; it will, however, do little to reassure the public about banks that are seriously undercapitalized.

OUCH! I agree. Once one looks inside the details of the "partnership" one can only conclude that lending taxpayer money to investors (some of whom will probably be the original investors or toxic asset holders themselves) to buy up bad debt is not a productive idea. In fact, it's just a continuance of the same things that got us into this mess to begin with: paying too much for things nobody wants or understands.

The administration's answer to the banking crisis has always been short on substance and this is no different. It's a lot of smoke and mirrors, and won't do anything substantive to alleviate the financial conditions which prevail: high unemployment, lack of confidence, slack demand, deflation. It's just more taxpayer money down a rat hole, with Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup and AIG at the bottom, glomming up all the free money they can.

Somebody asked me today why the Dow was up almost 500 points. My answer was the same one I have been using for just about every huge market move: "If somebody hands you a trillion dollars, you're probably going to have a party. Wall Street partied today like it was 1999, or 2003, 2005, 2006. The greedy bastards just can't get enough, and, even then, with the most accommodative policies ever in which to operate, they lose their shirts, our shirts and the shirts, shorts and pants of the next three generations. Screw them. Jump in and out of this stupid market, which is telegraphing moves like a punch drunk boxer on wobbly legs, and take some of the money yourself.

Making today's huge gains look somewhat more absurd, the World Trade Organization (WTO) reported - around 3:00 pm - that global trade would decline by 9% in 2009. That's just fine, as Wall Street was too busy to notice, as they tacked on the last 125 points leading up to the historic close.


Dow 7,775.86, +497.48 (6.84%)
NASDAQ 1,555.77, +98.50 (6.76%)
S&P 500 822.92, +54.38 (7.08%)
NYSE Composite 5,185.86, +353.73 (7.32%)

Market internals were strong, with advances favored over declines, 5747-896, a ratio of more than 8-1. There were gains in the number of new highs reported today, but they still did not eclipse the new lows, which remained higher, 102-26. Volume was as good as any day of the past two weeks, still on the high side.

NYSE Volume 1,916,566,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,255,664,000

With Wall Street going bonkers, commodity traders were less impressed. Crude oil gained $1.73, to $53.80. another new high for the year. Gold lost $3.70, to $952.50, but silver tacked on 4 cents, to close in New York at $13.88.

The Dow is now up 1230 points in just two weeks, a nearly 19% gain. With little - if any - resistance up to 8000, odds are good that this rally will have legs, though taking economic news seriously, something Wall Street seldom does, could produce different outcomes.

In any case, that was one hall of a rally.

An Object Lesson in Options

Today being a triple (or, by some standards, a quadruple) witching day, in which stock options, futures and index options all expire, it was amusing and insightful to watch the activity of the markets and the money flows as the week progressed. Triple witching happens every quarter, in the final month of the quarter on the third Friday of the month. Usually markets are quite volatile leading up to the date, and when the expiration of options occurs in the middle of a rally or sell-off, the action can be wicked.

This week had a couple of added bonuses in the form of the AIG flap amid the continuing economic crisis and the regular FOMC meeting and their release on Wednesday. The overhang of AIG bonuses and revelations of just how much money the Fed funneled through the conduit to counterparties was fodder for Monday and Tuesday, a little early for the options players to make serious moves. In fact, most were holding or still buying, staking out positions for the kill later in the week.

On Wednesday, at 2:15 in the afternoon, the Fed announced that they would be buying up to $300 billion in Treasury Bills, in essence creating money out of thin air to buy bonds. It's a desperate strategy which has never resulted in anything other than rampant inflation. But the Fed and the government isn't worried about that now, they just want to prevent complete collapse (they don't know that they, by their very actions, are going to cause it) of the financial system.

Mind you, the financial system in this country is so horribly broken by decades of intrusion, intervention and manipulation, one can scarcely believe stock prices at any point. As they are chimeras by nature, stock prices can be moved around by people with lots and lots of money. People like the Federal Reserve, the government and major banking and trading operations on Wall Street.

So, when the Fed made their dramatic announcement on Wednesday, the traders (crooks or thieves, if you like) were at the ready, pushing the Dow Jones Industrials up 150 points in just 5 minutes time, added more after that and then sold off a bit into the close. I said, in that day's entry, that the smart money was already out and the trading rhythm of Thursday and Friday bore me out (I also made a few bucks on the moves).

On Thursday, the Dow gapped up at the open near the previous day's high, but immediately retreated and soon was touching down in negative territory, repeatedly bouncing off 7400, which developed into a serious support level for the full afternoon and into the next day. That it was plucked out by traders as a line to defend was plausible, since the high on Monday was 7428 and the close on Tuesday was 7395.

Perfectly and somewhat hauntingly, the average bounced off this level repeatedly from around 11:30 am on Thursday to just before 1:00 pm on Friday. Every time the market began to pull below that level, there was a wall of support to push prices back up. That was until just before 1:00 pm Friday, when people holding options contracts began worrying, because holding until expiration either means you get nothing or you have to buy or sell a specific equity at your strike price, so the action was just about done unwinding.

It was at that point that 7400 was breached completely in one death-dive. The Dow fell over 100 point in the next hour and change, and, after 2:00 began heading for 7250, at which point bottom fishers came in and short covering began in earnest. Eventually, however, the die had been cast. The options traders had made their money, trapped their counterparties and escaped, apparently off to enjoy the first weekend of Spring out at the Hamptons or up in Connecticut. The Dow closed, as did the other indices, close to its low of the day.

Dow 7,278.38, -122.42 (1.65%)
NASDAQ 1,457.27, -26.21 (1.77%)
S&P 500 768.54, -15.50 (1.98%)
NYSE Composite 4,832.13, -105.09 (2.13%)

For the session, internals were indicative of the general direction. Declining issues outpaced advancers, 4582-1821. New lows opened a bit more space between themselves and the paltry number of new highs, 79-10. The highs-lows are still in a range from which they can roll over, but as has been the case in the previous six or seven times its happened since October 2007, it will only be for a day or two before the bull reverts to a scared calf as ravenous bears threaten its life.

One caveat is that some stocks are looking at 52-week highs that aren't that high. The decline had already begun by this time last year, though not in great earnest. The bear market rally (whether we are still having one is now very much in doubt) could run for months, though I personally doubt that it will last even a couple more days and definitely not past mid-April. In any case, the daily new highs and new lows is a metric which has provided incredibly strong insight into market movement, at times even predicting major moves and always true.

Volume on Friday was very high, higher than even Wednesday and Thursday. Expect the trading activity to fall off somewhat over the next two weeks as traders will be listening for early signs from companies considering 1st quarter results. Of course, the severe crisis of confidence, credit and money will continue to reverberate through the canyons of Wall Street and beyond.

One note on today's volume. There were more trades on the NYSE than the NASDAQ, the first time that's happened in a very long time (2002 to the best of my recollection).

NYSE Volume 2,465,968,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,421,536,000

Commodities were subdued, relative to equities. Crude oil lost 55 cents, closing at 51.06. Gold was off $2.60, to $956.20. Silver tacked on another 30 cents to finish the week at $13.82. Long term holders of precious metals are sitting pretty.

As for whether the rally will resume on Monday, there's quite a bit of evidence that it will not. Stocks were boosted largely for traders to rack up profits in options, as expressed above, and the last two days of trading have both ended up losers. Since the indices had been pumped quite a bit higher in a relatively short period of time, there may be a lull in the action for the next 2-3 weeks, but then earnings and guidance will begin to dictate the direction and it's not likely to be very good. Also, there's surely going to be more money being thrown around, scandal, and other disruptions, so the mini-bull we've experienced over the past two weeks may fade fast.

Rally Takes a Breather; Congress Claws Back at AIG

Talk about choppy trading!

Today's action was a back-and-forth between the bulls and the bears, just one day removed from options expiration on a triple witching day. Stocks opened higher, but quickly fell into the red and stayed down the rest of the session, trading in tight ranges, with neither buyers not sellers gaining much of an upper hand.

With the Dow being defended at support right around the 7400 mark, the day finally belonged to the bears, which clawed the indices back near their lows of the day at the close. Considering that the close was right at the Maginot line of support, tomorrow could easily be a day for another bull run as investors take profits and stake out new positions.

The big news of the day was once again down in the Capitol, where the house voted overwhelmingly to tax the bonuses paid out to AIG employees - about $145 million of such - at a 90% tax rate, clearly crossing a constitutional line (which hasn't seemed to matter much in Washington for about 10 years now) which expressly forbids retroactive laws. In other words, with the passage of this tax, what's to prevent congress from saying anyone or everyone owes more in taxes from last year? Or the past three years?

Washington's shamefully inept management of the financial crisis is equalled only by the hubris of Wall Street executives and their business practices. In a separate hearing, it was discovered that 13 of 23 firms which received bailout money owed back taxes. Whether it matters or not, the point is that Washington seems perfectly at home with the concept of awarding not only failure at every turn, but outright tax avoidance. That's not surprising, since Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner was confirmed by the Senate with full knowledge that he had tax issues over multiple years.

Dow 7,400.80, -85.78 (1.15%)
NASDAQ 1,483.48, -7.74 (0.52%)
S&P 500 784.04, -10.31 (1.30%)
NYSE Composite 4,937.22, -38.08 (0.77%)

For the session, declining issues took back the momentum from advancers, 3281-3084. New lows remained ahead of new highs, though the margin has shrunk to a point at which it could roll over any day. There were 67 new lows and just 16 new highs.

Volume was very strong once again, with trading at a hectic pace throughout the session.

NYSE Volume 1,951,789,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,354,656,000

While investors were dithering over nickels and dimes in stocks, commodities staged a bull run of their own. Crude oil reached another high for the year, gaining $3.47, to $51.61. The precious metals had a memorable day (actually begun yesterday afternoon, following the Fed announcement that it would be buying Treasuries) with gold ahead an outlandish $69.70, to close at $958.80, and silver ahead by $1.59, to $13.52, a 13% gain. Obviously, gold bugs view all of the bailout money being thrown around as highly inflationary, and, of course, they are correct. It could take two years for the effects of the mountains of credit and cash created in the past six months - with more to come - but surely there will be an aftereffect which will send the cost of goods to the moon.

It hardly seems worthwhile to make investments at this juncture. The stock markets are stuck in a bear-edged range for the short term and have nowhere to go but down in the long run. It's a trader's market, which apparently pleases Wall Streeters and the Washington enablers just fine.

Banner Day for Wall Street Crooks

One would think that with the Fed having lowered interest rates to ZERO and keeping them there, that today's Federal Open Market Committee rate policy meeting would be pretty much a non-event, and you would be right.

The committee released a terse three paragraph statement today, did not raise rates, reiterated that the economy was in the dumper and then quietly mentioned that the Federal Reserve would purchase "up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months."

Wall Street was wowed! The Dow shot up 150 points in the ten minutes after the statement was released. And why not? The Fed already has the power to create money out of thin air, so why not help out the bankrupt US Treasury (currently $11.5 Trillion in debt and growing) by buying up their bonds with their worthless paper (or, in this case, worthless electrons on a computer spreadsheet somewhere in the bowels of the Federal Reserve bank).

Glorioski! These people are out of their minds! After the worst financial meltdown in global history, the Fed and he government intend to fix it by going further and further and further into debt. This is going to bankrupt the entire nation, which, of course, is already bankrupt. Well, I guess they'll just make it worse and have it happen sooner this way. Now, not only is your 401K taking a huge hit, but the money it is denominated in (US $$) will be worth less because they are flooding the system with cash. Hallelujah! The double whammy!

The committee also said that the Fed and Treasury will soon be doling out another $2 Trillion of risk-free securities to their favorite deadbeat bankers, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, et. al. - the usual crowd of corrupt failures. The government is guaranteeing these securities against default with taxpayer money. Now, not only does the US populace own 85% of AIG, but they now ARE AIG. Mike Whitney's article, Bernanke's Witness Protection Program, puts the TALF scam in perfect perspective.

Remember, the Fed is a private bank. (For more on why this is of vital importance read James Quinn's Grand Illusion - The Federal Reserve)They will be selling these new collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) to their members. This, in the parlance of old-school honest-to-goodness economics, is known as self-dealing. All of this $2 Trillion of ADDITIONAL stimulus will accomplish nothing except to put the entire financial system of government and über-banks at further risk.

And, to make matters even better - for the inside traders, no doubt - the rally was extended another day. The Dow is up more than 900 points since last Monday. Will the madness ever end? Probably tomorrow or Friday, as soon as the cheats clean up on their options bets, which expire on Friday. The really smart money is already out. The rest will be pulled tomorrow.

Dow 7,486.58, +90.88 (1.23%)
NASDAQ 1,491.22, +29.11 (1.99%)
S&P 500 794.34, +16.22 (2.08%)
NYSE Composite 4,975.33, +107.19 (2.20%)

So, with stocks soaring, the internals showed just how unbalanced the trading was (remember, stocks were down until the Fed announcement). Advancers led decliners, 4883-1639. New lows continued to lead over new highs, but the margin is shrinking, at 116-24 on the day.

Volume was absolutely off the charts, probably the heaviest trading day of 2009. This indicates the massive nature of the fraudulent bear rally. With options expiring Friday, the money was moving with great velocity today as insiders scrambled in and out of positions in the final hour and 45 minutes.

NYSE Volume 2,077,359,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,813,044,000

There was a little island of sanity in the commodities trading pits. Oil lost $1.12, to $48.14 and has further to fall. Gold sold off in a very dramatic way, losing $27.70, to $889.10. Silver was hammered lower, losing 74 cents, to $11.94, a super buying opportunity.

There is no way the American financial system will survive more than another year of the fraud, corruption, self-dealing, inflationary money-pumping we have seen since last September. The genie is out of the bottle and it will not be put back in. Gold and silver are being held down by central bank cartels, but sooner or later, that game will end, and, as so many respected authorities on the topic of economics have said, the US dollar will be trashed, inflation will reign and gold and silver will double or triple in value. That day may be a year, two years away, though it could occur within six months or six days. Nobody knows the future, but the only way to protect yourself is to own gold and your own home.