Yesterday, I posited that stocks would trade sideways for the foreseeable future. What I failed to point out is that they have been doing so for the past two weeks.
Over the last nine trading sessions, the Dow has vacillated between 7800 and 8100, a fairly tight range. Today's trading took place between 7870 and 8000, excepting the final 10 minutes of trading. In fact, all of the gains on the Dow were accounted for in the final hour.
Dow 8,029.62, +109.44 (1.38%)
NASDAQ 1,626.80, +1.08 (0.07%)
S&P 500 852.06, +10.56 (1.25%)
NYSE Composite 5,384.97, +83.47 (1.57%)
It was an uneventful session, as advancing issues outnumbered decliners, 4305-2131. New lows outpaced new highs, 69-18. Volume was moderate, with a surge of trading into the close.
NYSE Volume 1,480,115,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,067,344,000
Commodity trading was equally sluggish, with oil falling 16 cents, to $49.25; gold higher by $1.50, to $893.50; and silver up 4 cents to $12.80.
As Americans officially met the deadline for filing taxes from 2008, the markets took a needed breather.
Capacity Utilization for March fell to 69.3%, from 70.3% in February. Likewise, Industrial Production was off 1.5% in March, rebuking the numerous predictions and proclamations that the worst of the recession was behind us. It appears that the economy is still sinking, as the Fed's Beige Book - released at 2:00 pm today - also suggested.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Earnings Season: Churn, Churn, Churn
Speaking to a fellow trader earlier today, I mentioned that I thought the overriding tone of trading during this earnings season would be that of selling upon announcement of earnings. To clarify, most stocks with any kind of momentum will gain prior to their earnings release date, and upon the announcement, traders would quickly scoop up profits, causing most stocks to fall.
In response, my friend said, "then you expect stocks to go down over the next few weeks."
I replied, "no, because while some stocks will be going down, others will be bid up in advance of earnings. I expect the market to go sideways."
Therein lies the rub. This is the classic trader's market, wherein quick reflexes and astute chart-monitoring will result in healthy gains for those who are eager to lock in profits. In a general sense, stocks are already somewhat overbought, though there could still be more to this rally, even though it may take weeks for it to make another forward move. The most likely outcome is that stocks will end up generally right where they are now, somewhere between (on the Dow) 7700 and 8100. The 8100 level has yet to be cracked, but there is plenty of room on the upside - all the way to 9000 - before violating the primary bearish trend.
Less seasoned investors will see any rally past 8200-8300 as signs of a new bull, but they will be sadly mistaken. The Dow in particular has plenty of room to roam before breaking into bullish ground, and the chances of that are, at this time, slim to none. Most analysts of any quality are now calling for recovery in the year 2010, so even a presaging move by the markets before July would be premature and likely to be killed off by a combination of profit-taking and outright selling.
There's almost surely to be another round of terror in the markets, caused by anything from a large company reporting truly ugly results, another nightmare from the banking sector, bad housing (or commercial property) news, more unemployment, and so on. There is truly no limit to the scenarios within which the Dow and associated markets could take another dive below 7000, the S&P back into the 750 range and so forth. Getting through April will look like a picnic in retrospect by the time June rolls around. There is still widespread uncertainty concerning everything from the government's budget deficits to bank solvency to a GM bankruptcy. Anything can happen, and it probably will.
The case today was cynical, on the whole. After Goldman Sachs (GS) announced their "outstanding" earnings a day early, the company came back with a stock offering at 123, sending shares lower at the open. It was something of an outlier and partially designed to cover the great deceit which GS played on investors. Their 1st quarter earnings covered the period of January through March, but since GS ad changed their accounting periods when they changed their designation from an investment bank to a commercial bank, they managed to leave out their $1 billion loss from December, 2008.
Seriously, it was just never reported, which is something of a first, and an evil ploy to hoodwink not only investors, but the financial media as well, who did little to uncover the fact.
In any case, Goldman set the tone out of the gate, sending the major indices out in the red, a place in which they remain until the closing bell.
Dow 7,920.18, -137.63 (1.71%)
NASDAQ 1,625.72, -27.59 (1.67%)
S&P 500 841.50, -17.23 (2.01%)
NYSE Composite 5,301.50, -108.78 (2.01%)
On the day, declining issues ran well ahead of advancing ones, 4403-2102. New lows remained in the dominant position over new highs, 76-19. Volume was better than it has been in days, owing to options expiration on Friday and a willingness, seemingly, to take profits in all quarters.
NYSE Volume 1,749,256,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,267,111,000
Over in the commodities arena, oil drooped 64 cents, hitting $49.41 at the close, the first close below $50 in over a week. Gold fell $3.80, to $892.00. Silver finished unchanged, at $12.77.
For all the excitement in the markets, it was a fairly quiet session, as stocks, once they bottomed out around the noon hour, traded in a fairly tight regimen the rest of the day. also weighing on investors were lower retail sales figures for March (-1.1%), and a sharp decline in the PPI, off 1.2% in March. Both readings were said - by the supine financial press - to be surprising, though one wonders just who was surprised that spending and prices were both dropping. It seemed to be not so much of a shock, but merely more evidence that the recession is deeper and longer than most people would like.
Speaking on the economy, both President Obama and Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, voiced concerns that while there have been signs of hope, the economic forces at work were nowhere near done doing their dirty work on the US economy. As per usual, both politicians spoke from both sides of their mouths simultaneously. One could take the entire volume of their words and just chuck it all in a waste bin, as all they do is mouth the same garbage all the time. Their speeches, and those of Treasury's Tim Geithner, are about as meaningful as seeing flowers bloom in Spring. Nothing new comes from anybody involved in the various government bailouts, rescues and assorted alphabet soup plots and plans, as they are mostly designed to cover up the most obvious bank insolvencies (B of A, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase) and will more than likely do more harm than good.
Of the few bright spots was Dow component, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), which reported earnings which were 0.04 ahead of Street expectations, at $1.26 per share. Other than that, of the 30 Dow components, only Citigroup (C), Intel (INTC) and General Motors (GM) finished the day with gains.
Don't look for any loud corporate noises on Wednesday, as there are no influential companies reporting. On Thursday, Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB), Google (GOOG), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Nokia (NOK) will add a degree of interest as they report 1st quarter results.
In response, my friend said, "then you expect stocks to go down over the next few weeks."
I replied, "no, because while some stocks will be going down, others will be bid up in advance of earnings. I expect the market to go sideways."
Therein lies the rub. This is the classic trader's market, wherein quick reflexes and astute chart-monitoring will result in healthy gains for those who are eager to lock in profits. In a general sense, stocks are already somewhat overbought, though there could still be more to this rally, even though it may take weeks for it to make another forward move. The most likely outcome is that stocks will end up generally right where they are now, somewhere between (on the Dow) 7700 and 8100. The 8100 level has yet to be cracked, but there is plenty of room on the upside - all the way to 9000 - before violating the primary bearish trend.
Less seasoned investors will see any rally past 8200-8300 as signs of a new bull, but they will be sadly mistaken. The Dow in particular has plenty of room to roam before breaking into bullish ground, and the chances of that are, at this time, slim to none. Most analysts of any quality are now calling for recovery in the year 2010, so even a presaging move by the markets before July would be premature and likely to be killed off by a combination of profit-taking and outright selling.
There's almost surely to be another round of terror in the markets, caused by anything from a large company reporting truly ugly results, another nightmare from the banking sector, bad housing (or commercial property) news, more unemployment, and so on. There is truly no limit to the scenarios within which the Dow and associated markets could take another dive below 7000, the S&P back into the 750 range and so forth. Getting through April will look like a picnic in retrospect by the time June rolls around. There is still widespread uncertainty concerning everything from the government's budget deficits to bank solvency to a GM bankruptcy. Anything can happen, and it probably will.
The case today was cynical, on the whole. After Goldman Sachs (GS) announced their "outstanding" earnings a day early, the company came back with a stock offering at 123, sending shares lower at the open. It was something of an outlier and partially designed to cover the great deceit which GS played on investors. Their 1st quarter earnings covered the period of January through March, but since GS ad changed their accounting periods when they changed their designation from an investment bank to a commercial bank, they managed to leave out their $1 billion loss from December, 2008.
Seriously, it was just never reported, which is something of a first, and an evil ploy to hoodwink not only investors, but the financial media as well, who did little to uncover the fact.
In any case, Goldman set the tone out of the gate, sending the major indices out in the red, a place in which they remain until the closing bell.
Dow 7,920.18, -137.63 (1.71%)
NASDAQ 1,625.72, -27.59 (1.67%)
S&P 500 841.50, -17.23 (2.01%)
NYSE Composite 5,301.50, -108.78 (2.01%)
On the day, declining issues ran well ahead of advancing ones, 4403-2102. New lows remained in the dominant position over new highs, 76-19. Volume was better than it has been in days, owing to options expiration on Friday and a willingness, seemingly, to take profits in all quarters.
NYSE Volume 1,749,256,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,267,111,000
Over in the commodities arena, oil drooped 64 cents, hitting $49.41 at the close, the first close below $50 in over a week. Gold fell $3.80, to $892.00. Silver finished unchanged, at $12.77.
For all the excitement in the markets, it was a fairly quiet session, as stocks, once they bottomed out around the noon hour, traded in a fairly tight regimen the rest of the day. also weighing on investors were lower retail sales figures for March (-1.1%), and a sharp decline in the PPI, off 1.2% in March. Both readings were said - by the supine financial press - to be surprising, though one wonders just who was surprised that spending and prices were both dropping. It seemed to be not so much of a shock, but merely more evidence that the recession is deeper and longer than most people would like.
Speaking on the economy, both President Obama and Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, voiced concerns that while there have been signs of hope, the economic forces at work were nowhere near done doing their dirty work on the US economy. As per usual, both politicians spoke from both sides of their mouths simultaneously. One could take the entire volume of their words and just chuck it all in a waste bin, as all they do is mouth the same garbage all the time. Their speeches, and those of Treasury's Tim Geithner, are about as meaningful as seeing flowers bloom in Spring. Nothing new comes from anybody involved in the various government bailouts, rescues and assorted alphabet soup plots and plans, as they are mostly designed to cover up the most obvious bank insolvencies (B of A, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase) and will more than likely do more harm than good.
Of the few bright spots was Dow component, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), which reported earnings which were 0.04 ahead of Street expectations, at $1.26 per share. Other than that, of the 30 Dow components, only Citigroup (C), Intel (INTC) and General Motors (GM) finished the day with gains.
Don't look for any loud corporate noises on Wednesday, as there are no influential companies reporting. On Thursday, Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB), Google (GOOG), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Nokia (NOK) will add a degree of interest as they report 1st quarter results.
Monday, April 13, 2009
Investors Play Waiting Game in Advance of Earnings
On the heels of a long holiday weekend, investors were met with a troubling scenario on Monday, as there was hardly a headline upon which to base trading. As such, stocks took an immediate dive to the negative at the opening bell and stayed down until momentum traders brought the major indices back to positive bearings after the noon hour. The Dow lagged the S&P and NYSE Composite, with the NASDAQ making a sharp turn at midday and closing close to unchanged.
Overall, there was little movement in anticipation of major earnings announcements which begin this week and will be the focus of trading through the end of the month. Of course, following the key Wells Fargo pre-announcement from Thursday, there's a good deal of excitement and anxiety building over first quarter earnings from major banks. The schedule for bank earnings goes as follows: Goldman Sachs (GS) on April 14, JP Morgan Chase (JPM) on April 16, Citigroup (C) on April 17, Bank of America (BAC) on April 20 and Wells Fargo (WFC) on April 22.
It is notable that Wells Fargo is the last to report, as their actual announcement will more than likely result in a sell-off, the company already having jumped the shark by leaking out their earnings news. The balance of this week, however, will be dominated by the three big banks reporting and it should be quite a show.
Dow 8,057.81, -25.57 (0.32%)
NASDAQ 1,653.31, +0.77 (0.05%)
S&P 500 858.73, +2.17 (0.25%)
NYSE Composite 5,410.28, +33.84 (0.63%)
As for today, it was just a low-volume grind in a fairly tight range. For the time being, volatility has been wrung out of the markets if only because stocks have once again topped out. The next move, whether to the upside or down, will be decisive though earnings reports from various companies over time could contribute to wide swings.
Advancing issues were 4644, to 2855 declining. New lows beat down new highs, 93-31, with the margin increasing again. Volume was on the low side.
NYSE Volume 1,481,100,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,832,720,000
What the market was waiting all day for - Talbot's earnings for the 4th quarter and full year of 2008 - finally appeared online after the close. If the market is seeking direction, take note: The company, trading under the symbol TLB, reported a 4th quarter adjusted net loss (period ended January 31, 2009) of $128.4 million or $2.40 per share compared to last year’s adjusted net loss of $7.1 million or $0.13 per share.
Talbot's operates more than 1000 retail apparel stores in the US, UK and Canada, so all this does is re-confirm that the retail sector is in deep trouble. Shares were down nearly 20% in after-hours trading.
Well, that's what we thought the market was awaiting. Instead, Goldman Sachs decided to report a day earlier, posting earnings of $3.39 per share, beating forecasts of $1.64 per share. Expect stocks to gap up at the open tomorrow on that surprise.
What is troubling about Goldman Sachs' earnings is that since changing their designation from an investment bank to a commercial bank, they also changed their reporting periods, which can be seen plainly in this report. [PDF]
The problem is that the company seems to have completely eviscerated the month of December, 2008, in which - according to unpublished reports - the company lost $1 billion, or $2.15 per share, which would have dramatically changed their results. Goldman's actual results - including the December loss - should have been $1.24 per share, well below the expectations. This is all just spin, and possibly accounting fraud, which, of course, will not be investigated. Shares of Goldman Sachs were lower in after-hours trading.
Oil closed down $2.19, at $50.05. Gold gained $12.50, to $895.80, while silver edged higher by 44 cents, to close at $12.77.
With companies - notably banks - jumping the gun on earnings announcements, the trading environment has gone from nearly impossible to "forget it" status. Nothing makes sense any more. Banks which needed billions of dollars just months ago are now reporting healthy profits. Is it all a sham, a grand design to raid the US treasury? We may never know, but all indications sure seem to be pointing that way.
Overall, there was little movement in anticipation of major earnings announcements which begin this week and will be the focus of trading through the end of the month. Of course, following the key Wells Fargo pre-announcement from Thursday, there's a good deal of excitement and anxiety building over first quarter earnings from major banks. The schedule for bank earnings goes as follows: Goldman Sachs (GS) on April 14, JP Morgan Chase (JPM) on April 16, Citigroup (C) on April 17, Bank of America (BAC) on April 20 and Wells Fargo (WFC) on April 22.
It is notable that Wells Fargo is the last to report, as their actual announcement will more than likely result in a sell-off, the company already having jumped the shark by leaking out their earnings news. The balance of this week, however, will be dominated by the three big banks reporting and it should be quite a show.
Dow 8,057.81, -25.57 (0.32%)
NASDAQ 1,653.31, +0.77 (0.05%)
S&P 500 858.73, +2.17 (0.25%)
NYSE Composite 5,410.28, +33.84 (0.63%)
As for today, it was just a low-volume grind in a fairly tight range. For the time being, volatility has been wrung out of the markets if only because stocks have once again topped out. The next move, whether to the upside or down, will be decisive though earnings reports from various companies over time could contribute to wide swings.
Advancing issues were 4644, to 2855 declining. New lows beat down new highs, 93-31, with the margin increasing again. Volume was on the low side.
NYSE Volume 1,481,100,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,832,720,000
What the market was waiting all day for - Talbot's earnings for the 4th quarter and full year of 2008 - finally appeared online after the close. If the market is seeking direction, take note: The company, trading under the symbol TLB, reported a 4th quarter adjusted net loss (period ended January 31, 2009) of $128.4 million or $2.40 per share compared to last year’s adjusted net loss of $7.1 million or $0.13 per share.
Talbot's operates more than 1000 retail apparel stores in the US, UK and Canada, so all this does is re-confirm that the retail sector is in deep trouble. Shares were down nearly 20% in after-hours trading.
Well, that's what we thought the market was awaiting. Instead, Goldman Sachs decided to report a day earlier, posting earnings of $3.39 per share, beating forecasts of $1.64 per share. Expect stocks to gap up at the open tomorrow on that surprise.
What is troubling about Goldman Sachs' earnings is that since changing their designation from an investment bank to a commercial bank, they also changed their reporting periods, which can be seen plainly in this report. [PDF]
The problem is that the company seems to have completely eviscerated the month of December, 2008, in which - according to unpublished reports - the company lost $1 billion, or $2.15 per share, which would have dramatically changed their results. Goldman's actual results - including the December loss - should have been $1.24 per share, well below the expectations. This is all just spin, and possibly accounting fraud, which, of course, will not be investigated. Shares of Goldman Sachs were lower in after-hours trading.
Oil closed down $2.19, at $50.05. Gold gained $12.50, to $895.80, while silver edged higher by 44 cents, to close at $12.77.
With companies - notably banks - jumping the gun on earnings announcements, the trading environment has gone from nearly impossible to "forget it" status. Nothing makes sense any more. Banks which needed billions of dollars just months ago are now reporting healthy profits. Is it all a sham, a grand design to raid the US treasury? We may never know, but all indications sure seem to be pointing that way.
Thursday, April 9, 2009
The Fantasy Economy of US Banking
I am not going to rant and rave about how the corrupt, insolvent banksters who are in control of our economy goosed the market today by having Wells Fargo (WFC) jump the gun and pre-announce their outstanding earnings - some $3 billion worth - less than 2 weeks before their actual earnings date.
The bank announced prior to the market opening, which jump-started the futures and set the tone for the trading, with all of the major indices gapping up more than 2$ at the open.
No, I'm not going to rant about how utterly without integrity are the leaders of our country and the business community. I'm just going to tell you that I closed all of my positions today and will be out of this market for the foreseeable future.
Dow 8,083.38, +246.27 (3.14%)
NASDAQ 1,652.54, +61.88 (3.89%)
S&P 500 856.56, +31.40 (3.81%)
NYSE Composite 5,376.44, +200.03 (3.86%)
It should be noted that while Wells Fargo was up 31%, they were outdone by Bank of America, which posted a 35% gain on the day. Other Dow components in the financial sector with outsize gains were American Express (AXP), up 20%, JP Morgan Chase, up 19%, and Citigroup, up a mere 12%. Bear in mind that all of these companies were the beneficiaries of taxpayer bailout money and other favorable loan terms from the Federal Reserve and Treasury. Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner are smiling with riches tonight. Welcome to the fantasy economy.
On the day, the spill-over from the banking boom sent advancers solidly ahead of declining issues, 5586-1033. However, new lows remained ahead of new highs, 80-38. Trading volume was quiet strong.
NYSE Volume 1,835,800,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,179,931,000
Over in the commodity pits, oil was up $2.86, to $52.24. Gold continued to stall, losing $2.60, to $883.30. Silver also fell, but only by a penny, to $12.33.
Tomorrow being Good Friday, the markets are taking the day off. While the government runs not only record deficits, but enormous ones, unemployment continues to rise unabated and the real estate market continues to struggle, all's well on Wall Street, where criminals run the banks and brokerages with money supplied by you and me.
Happy Easter. I hope you find some gold inside your eggs.
The bank announced prior to the market opening, which jump-started the futures and set the tone for the trading, with all of the major indices gapping up more than 2$ at the open.
No, I'm not going to rant about how utterly without integrity are the leaders of our country and the business community. I'm just going to tell you that I closed all of my positions today and will be out of this market for the foreseeable future.
Dow 8,083.38, +246.27 (3.14%)
NASDAQ 1,652.54, +61.88 (3.89%)
S&P 500 856.56, +31.40 (3.81%)
NYSE Composite 5,376.44, +200.03 (3.86%)
It should be noted that while Wells Fargo was up 31%, they were outdone by Bank of America, which posted a 35% gain on the day. Other Dow components in the financial sector with outsize gains were American Express (AXP), up 20%, JP Morgan Chase, up 19%, and Citigroup, up a mere 12%. Bear in mind that all of these companies were the beneficiaries of taxpayer bailout money and other favorable loan terms from the Federal Reserve and Treasury. Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner are smiling with riches tonight. Welcome to the fantasy economy.
On the day, the spill-over from the banking boom sent advancers solidly ahead of declining issues, 5586-1033. However, new lows remained ahead of new highs, 80-38. Trading volume was quiet strong.
NYSE Volume 1,835,800,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,179,931,000
Over in the commodity pits, oil was up $2.86, to $52.24. Gold continued to stall, losing $2.60, to $883.30. Silver also fell, but only by a penny, to $12.33.
Tomorrow being Good Friday, the markets are taking the day off. While the government runs not only record deficits, but enormous ones, unemployment continues to rise unabated and the real estate market continues to struggle, all's well on Wall Street, where criminals run the banks and brokerages with money supplied by you and me.
Happy Easter. I hope you find some gold inside your eggs.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Stocks Are Cheap, I Guess
According to the expert headline writers at Yahoo! Finance, "Insurance Companies and Homebuilders Sparked Wednesday's Rally."
Really! They said that, which doesn't adequately explain why the NASDAQ was sporting an 85-15% up to down volume bias, and probably wasn't the reason for any rally at all. Why stocks rallied today may have been hope for more crookedness, in the form of a relaxation of shorting rules proposed by the SEC, or maybe they were right in part, at least as far as concerns insurance companies, because the Treasury is rumored to be planning to include some life insurance companies under the bailout umbrella of TARP.
As for homebuilders, Pulte Homes (PHM) agreed to purchase Centex (CTX) for $1.3 billion in stock, which is amazing in that its hard to believe any homebuilder could even be worth $1.3 billion, let alone have that amount of stock available for the purchase of another homebuilder. Maybe they've been getting secret TARP funds from Tim Geithner.
In any case, the rally was not all that large as to get uptight about it, considering that it is occurring in the middle of the worst financial meltdown in the history of the world. Yes, you read that right. The worst EVER. Beating the tulip bust, the fall of Rome and even our very own Great Depression. Additionally, the rally fell apart precisely at 2:00 pm. So much for homebuilders and failed insurance providers.
Why is this the worst financial meltdown ever, you ask? Simple, because during the Great Depression the USA was a net exporter and routinely ran budget surpluses rather than deficits. We were on the gold standard then, as compared to the "thin air" standard we've been on since 1971, when the great (satire), late Richard Nixon repudiated our debts by refusing to honor the Bretton Woods agreements, thus taking our currency from one being backed by gold to one being backed by "the full faith and credit" of the United States of America, which is a very bad joke today because nobody has any faith in America anymore and we are a nation strung out on credit. The burgeoning national debt, now surging past $12 trillion, will never be repaid, ever, so, yes, this is the worst economic crisis and collapse in the history of the planet.
There are other reasons, such as the fact that we no longer have an industrial base, having shipped all of that to foreign countries, and the social safety net, which includes social security, welfare, and unemployment benefit recipients, were not even around during the Great Depression, though now they act only as an increase on GDP and a net productivity loss. Those people are freeloaders, producing nothing. So, those of you who believe the official government figure of 8.5% unemployment, start including retirees, welfare loafers and people supposedly seeking work, and you can just jump that number up to about 20-25% of the population, the same unemployment that we had during the 30s, but now we simply don't count those people as it might scare some other people.
America is collapsing quickly, so one naturally wonders why stocks are going up when all indications are that they should be going down. Maybe not you, but that's how I spend my idle hours, which are growing by the day due to my outstanding investment (make that trading) skills, thank you.
Apparently, today's little rally was short-circuited precisely at 2:00 pm because that's when the Fed minutes from the last FOMC meeting were released, and, of course, the Fed said that conditions sucked (they use bigger words) and the geniuses on Wall Street - who apparently were unaware of the horrible economic conditions - decided they should sell.
This market sucks, though. It has no direction except down. The rally of the last 4 weeks was a mirage, a total fraud. The economy sucks, your stocks suck, this country is headed straight into a black hole, and the worst part of it is that because of our corrupt politicians, bankers, CEOs and news media, the American public is largely unaware of the condition. That, however, is expected, as the majority of Americans have college degrees but are dumber than nails about anything that really matters, like the economy, the constitution, the rule of law, etc.
Dow 7,837.11, +47.55 (0.61%)
NASDAQ 1,590.66, +29.05 (1.86%)
S&P 500 825.15, +9.60 (1.18%)
NYSE Composite 5,176.48, +55.81 (1.09%)
On the day, advancing issues actually outdid decliners, 4628-1772, but the one true gauge which has remained constant throughout this episode, stretching back to October of 2007, new lows exceeded new highs, 69-10. Volume was weak, well off levels of just a week ago, another signal that nobody is buying except insiders with positions to protect.
NYSE Volume 1,314,803,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,851,850,000
Commodities also spent most of the day yo-yoing up and down, like there was something to decide as concerns the direction of prices. Oil was down, then up, then finished with a minuscule gain of 23 cents, at $49.38. Whoop-de-do! Gold gained $2.26, but remains at depressed levels, closing at $885.90. Silver also was up 13 cents, to $12.34.
Our fabulous Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, said that results of the bank stress tests will not be released until after earnings for the guilty parties are announced, a sure signal that all the books have been fully cooked. Geithner is an obvious obfuscator and a complete, incompetent liar.
The nation has been led by elite crooks and criminals and the American people are paying a huge price for allowing it. In the end, one can only hope that the politicians and bankers will receive the treatment they so richly deserve. While today's tidy gains may look positive to some, they were merely a means for the banksters to steal again from both sides, buyers and sellers.
Stocks were completely out of kilter. The NASDAQ gapped up and stayed up, the Dow underperformed, all manner of technical levels were violated, including the most important support at 7775 on the Dow, but none of that matters since fundamentals don't matter, nor does sentiment, economic reports, earnings or any other measure. The big money makes the markets dance and they are playing all the wrong tunes right now.
The move engulfed yesterday completely, marking the 4th straight day of lower highs and lower lows, leaving investors scratching their heads in search of direction. Don't be fooled. The fundamentals are horrid and the markets will continue to decline. It's just a matter of when and by how much. Dow 5500 is looking pretty good, but 4000 is certainly not out of the question.
Stocks really aren't cheap, considering that in the near future, say six to nine months, most of them will be bankrupt or close to it. Some already are.
Really! They said that, which doesn't adequately explain why the NASDAQ was sporting an 85-15% up to down volume bias, and probably wasn't the reason for any rally at all. Why stocks rallied today may have been hope for more crookedness, in the form of a relaxation of shorting rules proposed by the SEC, or maybe they were right in part, at least as far as concerns insurance companies, because the Treasury is rumored to be planning to include some life insurance companies under the bailout umbrella of TARP.
As for homebuilders, Pulte Homes (PHM) agreed to purchase Centex (CTX) for $1.3 billion in stock, which is amazing in that its hard to believe any homebuilder could even be worth $1.3 billion, let alone have that amount of stock available for the purchase of another homebuilder. Maybe they've been getting secret TARP funds from Tim Geithner.
In any case, the rally was not all that large as to get uptight about it, considering that it is occurring in the middle of the worst financial meltdown in the history of the world. Yes, you read that right. The worst EVER. Beating the tulip bust, the fall of Rome and even our very own Great Depression. Additionally, the rally fell apart precisely at 2:00 pm. So much for homebuilders and failed insurance providers.
Why is this the worst financial meltdown ever, you ask? Simple, because during the Great Depression the USA was a net exporter and routinely ran budget surpluses rather than deficits. We were on the gold standard then, as compared to the "thin air" standard we've been on since 1971, when the great (satire), late Richard Nixon repudiated our debts by refusing to honor the Bretton Woods agreements, thus taking our currency from one being backed by gold to one being backed by "the full faith and credit" of the United States of America, which is a very bad joke today because nobody has any faith in America anymore and we are a nation strung out on credit. The burgeoning national debt, now surging past $12 trillion, will never be repaid, ever, so, yes, this is the worst economic crisis and collapse in the history of the planet.
There are other reasons, such as the fact that we no longer have an industrial base, having shipped all of that to foreign countries, and the social safety net, which includes social security, welfare, and unemployment benefit recipients, were not even around during the Great Depression, though now they act only as an increase on GDP and a net productivity loss. Those people are freeloaders, producing nothing. So, those of you who believe the official government figure of 8.5% unemployment, start including retirees, welfare loafers and people supposedly seeking work, and you can just jump that number up to about 20-25% of the population, the same unemployment that we had during the 30s, but now we simply don't count those people as it might scare some other people.
America is collapsing quickly, so one naturally wonders why stocks are going up when all indications are that they should be going down. Maybe not you, but that's how I spend my idle hours, which are growing by the day due to my outstanding investment (make that trading) skills, thank you.
Apparently, today's little rally was short-circuited precisely at 2:00 pm because that's when the Fed minutes from the last FOMC meeting were released, and, of course, the Fed said that conditions sucked (they use bigger words) and the geniuses on Wall Street - who apparently were unaware of the horrible economic conditions - decided they should sell.
This market sucks, though. It has no direction except down. The rally of the last 4 weeks was a mirage, a total fraud. The economy sucks, your stocks suck, this country is headed straight into a black hole, and the worst part of it is that because of our corrupt politicians, bankers, CEOs and news media, the American public is largely unaware of the condition. That, however, is expected, as the majority of Americans have college degrees but are dumber than nails about anything that really matters, like the economy, the constitution, the rule of law, etc.
Dow 7,837.11, +47.55 (0.61%)
NASDAQ 1,590.66, +29.05 (1.86%)
S&P 500 825.15, +9.60 (1.18%)
NYSE Composite 5,176.48, +55.81 (1.09%)
On the day, advancing issues actually outdid decliners, 4628-1772, but the one true gauge which has remained constant throughout this episode, stretching back to October of 2007, new lows exceeded new highs, 69-10. Volume was weak, well off levels of just a week ago, another signal that nobody is buying except insiders with positions to protect.
NYSE Volume 1,314,803,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,851,850,000
Commodities also spent most of the day yo-yoing up and down, like there was something to decide as concerns the direction of prices. Oil was down, then up, then finished with a minuscule gain of 23 cents, at $49.38. Whoop-de-do! Gold gained $2.26, but remains at depressed levels, closing at $885.90. Silver also was up 13 cents, to $12.34.
Our fabulous Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, said that results of the bank stress tests will not be released until after earnings for the guilty parties are announced, a sure signal that all the books have been fully cooked. Geithner is an obvious obfuscator and a complete, incompetent liar.
The nation has been led by elite crooks and criminals and the American people are paying a huge price for allowing it. In the end, one can only hope that the politicians and bankers will receive the treatment they so richly deserve. While today's tidy gains may look positive to some, they were merely a means for the banksters to steal again from both sides, buyers and sellers.
Stocks were completely out of kilter. The NASDAQ gapped up and stayed up, the Dow underperformed, all manner of technical levels were violated, including the most important support at 7775 on the Dow, but none of that matters since fundamentals don't matter, nor does sentiment, economic reports, earnings or any other measure. The big money makes the markets dance and they are playing all the wrong tunes right now.
The move engulfed yesterday completely, marking the 4th straight day of lower highs and lower lows, leaving investors scratching their heads in search of direction. Don't be fooled. The fundamentals are horrid and the markets will continue to decline. It's just a matter of when and by how much. Dow 5500 is looking pretty good, but 4000 is certainly not out of the question.
Stocks really aren't cheap, considering that in the near future, say six to nine months, most of them will be bankrupt or close to it. Some already are.
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