For weeks we've been hearing about how the economy is improving, though the data released hardly supported the theory.
Many economic numbers were slightly better than anticipated, and earnings for many companies beat watered-down expectations, but overall, evidence that the economy was actually on the mend was scant.
Today's release of retail sales figures for April sent investors scurrying to take profits and close down option positions en masse. Retail sales were off 0.4%, when expectations were a decline of just 0.2%. March figures were also revised lower. As those numbers hit the street prior to the market's opening, selling commenced right from the opening bell and didn't ease up much all day.
Separately, a report from Realty-Trac showed foreclosures hitting yet another record in April.
Dow 8,284.89, -184.22 (2.18%)
NASDAQ 1,664.19, -51.73 (3.01%)
S&P 500 883.92. -24.43 (2.69%)
NYSE Composite 5,666.47, -192.67 (3.29%)
The broad-based decline was confirmed by market internals. Decliners were handily ahead of advancing issues, 5602-936. The 6-1 ratio was the worst since the markets were bottoming out in early March. The steadfast new lows - new highs ratio remained stubbornly tilted downward, with 76 new lows to a mere 16 new highs, also a low number of new highs not evidenced since March. Volume was not fantastic, but solid and mostly on the sell side.
NYSE Volume 1,766,071,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,404,441,000
Crude oil fell 23 cents, to close at $57.79. Gold fluctuated, eventually finishing $2.00 higher, at $925.90. Silver took a breather after a more than $1.00 week-long run up, losing 20 cents, to $14.02.
The S&P fell for the third straight session, the longest such streak since a five-day losing skein February 24 - March 3. The consecutive declines are a strong signal of general weakness, as investors and working people struggle for clarity.
Just a week after the much-ballyhooed bank "stress tests" the markets seem to have soured, as rosy predictions of a quick turnaround have given way to more disciplined and rigorous outlooks that see the USA struggling for years to come. Government efforts to conceal bank losses have not be lost on average Americans, who feel short-changed, cheated and lied to by bankers and the political elite.
Investing over the past two months time has been an effort in near-total delusion. The US economy cannot be seen as improving when the Federal Reserve is monetizing Treasury debt as the federal government piles up mountains of unpayable notes overwhelming the public. Foreign investors have seriously curtailed Treasury purchases, especially China.
To make matters worse, the Obama administration seems hell-bent on socializing industry and demolishing what little is left of American entrepreneurism with odious taxes, regulations and heavy-handed wealth redistribution measures. Without a clear reversal of policy - from tax and spend to fiscal austerity - from government at all levels, the American public will continue to lose faith in government's promise to repair the private sector. Further Keynesian tinkering by the Fed and Treasury will only result in a deeper and longer lasting depression.
Make no doubt about it. We entered dangerous waters in 2007 and conditions have only worsened since. Government efforts to revive the economy with the magic bullet of increasing money supply and handouts have thus far only made the situation worse. Beware the summer months, but be even more attuned to the period between August and October. If real progress has not been made by then, expect living conditions in many US cities to deteriorate to near-third world status.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
No Stopping the Industrial Giants
The stock markets are rigged. There, I said it. somebody mentioned that Goldman Sachs handles 20% of all the trades on the NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges. I tend to believe that, especially considering how one-sided the markets have become over the past two months.
It's a one-way bet, just like it was during the post-9/11 era, or, actually, as soon as the Iraq war began. Everything just keeps going up.
Now, I have nothing against profitable trading, I just think profits should be made by investing in companies with good fundamentals, growing earnings, dividends, things like that. The biggest leaders of the recent climb have been banks, many of which were on the brink of failure just a few months back, and were saved by infusions of cash from taxpayers.
That's not what I call sustainable or sound business. Eventually, I will be found to have been right all along. It will become apparent that Citigroup and Bank of America are insolvent. That JP Morgan has too much derivative exposure that they don't like to talk about, and that Goldman Sachs does manipulate the market at the behest of the Federal Reserve, itself a chimera of an organization, one which creates currency out of thin air. How can that be a viable business?
Others agree with me that the "dead cat bounce" has been overdone. Here's one.
Then there's talk of Social Security and Medicare going belly-up before they're supposed to. Well, even the idea that they are going to go broke should be cause enough to reform or dispose of these awful entitlements which are bankrupting the country, turning productive people and resources into wards of the state and, though they provide capital into the system, are nothing more than the manifestation of the worst form of the welfare state.
Dow 8,469.11, +50.34 (0.60%)
NASDAQ 1,715.92, -15.32 (0.88%)
S&P 500 908.35, -0.89 (0.10%)
NYSE Composite 5,859.14, +9.84 (0.17%)
Yesterday, I was reporting how the NASDAQ stocks fared much better than their counterpart indices. Today the opposite is the case, with Dow stocks leading the way. So, which is it? Old, stodgy industrials or new-age tech companies at which we should be throwing our money? Neither is likely the case. Gold or silver will outperform them both, as they have for the past five years.
Just to confuse matters further on one of the more confounding sessions of late, declining issues dominated advancers, 3885-2650. New lows: 73; New highs: 38. Volume was light.
NYSE Volume 1,611,161,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,529,090,000
The government continues to borrow and spend at a record-shattering pace. Americans will be paying through their eyeteeth until their dying breath just for the money being wasted trying to prevent the economy falling into an orderly and well-deserved depression. All they're doing is delaying the inevitable and making matters worse. The luckiest people on the planet today are those who know they don't have long to live. They won't be around to witness or deal with the devastation.
Crude oil was up another 35 cents, to $58.69, but gold gained more, rising $10.40, to $923.90. Silver shot up another 31 cents, to $14.22. They're probably all overpriced, but especially oil. When PPI and CPI figures are released later this week, there's likely to be some pull-back in all commodity prices. The economy is still just puttering along at a snail's pace. Growth is more than 9 months away.
Bonds were unmoved and the dollar was descending last we noticed.
It's a one-way bet, just like it was during the post-9/11 era, or, actually, as soon as the Iraq war began. Everything just keeps going up.
Now, I have nothing against profitable trading, I just think profits should be made by investing in companies with good fundamentals, growing earnings, dividends, things like that. The biggest leaders of the recent climb have been banks, many of which were on the brink of failure just a few months back, and were saved by infusions of cash from taxpayers.
That's not what I call sustainable or sound business. Eventually, I will be found to have been right all along. It will become apparent that Citigroup and Bank of America are insolvent. That JP Morgan has too much derivative exposure that they don't like to talk about, and that Goldman Sachs does manipulate the market at the behest of the Federal Reserve, itself a chimera of an organization, one which creates currency out of thin air. How can that be a viable business?
Others agree with me that the "dead cat bounce" has been overdone. Here's one.
Then there's talk of Social Security and Medicare going belly-up before they're supposed to. Well, even the idea that they are going to go broke should be cause enough to reform or dispose of these awful entitlements which are bankrupting the country, turning productive people and resources into wards of the state and, though they provide capital into the system, are nothing more than the manifestation of the worst form of the welfare state.
Dow 8,469.11, +50.34 (0.60%)
NASDAQ 1,715.92, -15.32 (0.88%)
S&P 500 908.35, -0.89 (0.10%)
NYSE Composite 5,859.14, +9.84 (0.17%)
Yesterday, I was reporting how the NASDAQ stocks fared much better than their counterpart indices. Today the opposite is the case, with Dow stocks leading the way. So, which is it? Old, stodgy industrials or new-age tech companies at which we should be throwing our money? Neither is likely the case. Gold or silver will outperform them both, as they have for the past five years.
Just to confuse matters further on one of the more confounding sessions of late, declining issues dominated advancers, 3885-2650. New lows: 73; New highs: 38. Volume was light.
NYSE Volume 1,611,161,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,529,090,000
The government continues to borrow and spend at a record-shattering pace. Americans will be paying through their eyeteeth until their dying breath just for the money being wasted trying to prevent the economy falling into an orderly and well-deserved depression. All they're doing is delaying the inevitable and making matters worse. The luckiest people on the planet today are those who know they don't have long to live. They won't be around to witness or deal with the devastation.
Crude oil was up another 35 cents, to $58.69, but gold gained more, rising $10.40, to $923.90. Silver shot up another 31 cents, to $14.22. They're probably all overpriced, but especially oil. When PPI and CPI figures are released later this week, there's likely to be some pull-back in all commodity prices. The economy is still just puttering along at a snail's pace. Growth is more than 9 months away.
Bonds were unmoved and the dollar was descending last we noticed.
Monday, May 11, 2009
Profit Taking or Overdue Correction?
Stocks took a bit of a hit on Monday, though on closer inspection, sellers held onto most of their tech stocks. The Dow, S&P and NYSE Composite each took sizable hits, but the tech-laden NASDAQ was barely touched.
Dow 8,418.77, -155.88 (1.82%)
NASDAQ 1,731.24, -7.76 (0.45%)
S&P 500 909.24, -19.99 (2.15%)
NYSE Composite 5,849.30, -151.09 (2.52%)
There wasn't much in the way of economic news and 1st quarter earnings were scant as well, so investors had little on which to focus except the incredible rise in the indices over the past 9 weeks. Sensing that May and June will offer little in the way of a catalyst to move stocks even higher, profit-taking ruled the day. Many are already saying that this is now a stock-pickers market, and it will be best to focus on individual companies, or, at worst, sectors.
Obviously, the most beaten down are home builders and retailers, with financial stocks a close third, though the banks have had a nice run of late. Tech seems to be the favored place to be, as many smaller - and larger - tech companies are debt-free, a critical condition in the current environment.
The bigger question is whether investors will remain confident as economic figures trickle through the system. If the banks are allowed to continue their charades with mark-to-model (in other words, fantasy) valuations of the toxic MBSs, CDOs and credit derivatives still on their books, the markets could hold up fairly well, though everybody knows that further shocks to the financial system could be devastating. Unemployment numbers and various gauges such as the CPI, capacity utilization and home sales will be crucial going forward.
It also would be wise to keep an eye on the bond and Treasury markets. Bond prices have been hammered down of late, causing yields to rise, nearing a point of attractiveness to investors. 10-year notes recently popped above the 3% mark, along with longer-maturities (30-year) nudging past 4%. If the Fed is unable to keep rates from rising - which will take some doing - all bets on a recovery this year are off.
Also worth noting is how much Treasury debt the Fed has to purchase over coming months. Failure to attract foreign investors to Treasury auctions could prove devastating. The federal government has a record amount of debt to offer this year and the Fed has committed to buying up $300 billion of it. That number may not be enough, and if it isn't, look out for a devaluation of the dollar down the road. There are rumors already afoot that dollar devaluation may be unavoidable. Only time and the markets will tell.
On the day, declining issues overwhelmed advancers, 4318-2203. New lows continued their edge over new highs, 77-50. In recent weeks, the gap has narrowed, but never rolled over to favor new highs. If that occurs, it would signal another leg up in the markets. It's an indicator worth keeping on tab. Volume was down a bit from last week, and it seems like options players are already out of May long positions and looking to go further out, so average daily volume could slow down, as it usually does in warmer weather.
NYSE Volume 1,490,315,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,517,213,000
Commodities spent most of the day treading water in directionless trade. Oil lost 13 cents, to $58.50. Gold was off $1.40, to $913.50. Silver fell 5 cents to $13.91. There's nary a trend in commodities, though most seem to be consolidating after recent gains. The next move up or down will depend largely on supply issues and sentiment and both of those are in a state of flux.
There is a good deal of economic reports coming out this week, including CPI, PPI, inventories, retail sales, capacity utilization and industrial production. some stabilization in each of these indicators is expected, which should serve as good news for markets. However, since stocks have already seen an historic run, any further gains will be hard-earned.
Dow 8,418.77, -155.88 (1.82%)
NASDAQ 1,731.24, -7.76 (0.45%)
S&P 500 909.24, -19.99 (2.15%)
NYSE Composite 5,849.30, -151.09 (2.52%)
There wasn't much in the way of economic news and 1st quarter earnings were scant as well, so investors had little on which to focus except the incredible rise in the indices over the past 9 weeks. Sensing that May and June will offer little in the way of a catalyst to move stocks even higher, profit-taking ruled the day. Many are already saying that this is now a stock-pickers market, and it will be best to focus on individual companies, or, at worst, sectors.
Obviously, the most beaten down are home builders and retailers, with financial stocks a close third, though the banks have had a nice run of late. Tech seems to be the favored place to be, as many smaller - and larger - tech companies are debt-free, a critical condition in the current environment.
The bigger question is whether investors will remain confident as economic figures trickle through the system. If the banks are allowed to continue their charades with mark-to-model (in other words, fantasy) valuations of the toxic MBSs, CDOs and credit derivatives still on their books, the markets could hold up fairly well, though everybody knows that further shocks to the financial system could be devastating. Unemployment numbers and various gauges such as the CPI, capacity utilization and home sales will be crucial going forward.
It also would be wise to keep an eye on the bond and Treasury markets. Bond prices have been hammered down of late, causing yields to rise, nearing a point of attractiveness to investors. 10-year notes recently popped above the 3% mark, along with longer-maturities (30-year) nudging past 4%. If the Fed is unable to keep rates from rising - which will take some doing - all bets on a recovery this year are off.
Also worth noting is how much Treasury debt the Fed has to purchase over coming months. Failure to attract foreign investors to Treasury auctions could prove devastating. The federal government has a record amount of debt to offer this year and the Fed has committed to buying up $300 billion of it. That number may not be enough, and if it isn't, look out for a devaluation of the dollar down the road. There are rumors already afoot that dollar devaluation may be unavoidable. Only time and the markets will tell.
On the day, declining issues overwhelmed advancers, 4318-2203. New lows continued their edge over new highs, 77-50. In recent weeks, the gap has narrowed, but never rolled over to favor new highs. If that occurs, it would signal another leg up in the markets. It's an indicator worth keeping on tab. Volume was down a bit from last week, and it seems like options players are already out of May long positions and looking to go further out, so average daily volume could slow down, as it usually does in warmer weather.
NYSE Volume 1,490,315,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,517,213,000
Commodities spent most of the day treading water in directionless trade. Oil lost 13 cents, to $58.50. Gold was off $1.40, to $913.50. Silver fell 5 cents to $13.91. There's nary a trend in commodities, though most seem to be consolidating after recent gains. The next move up or down will depend largely on supply issues and sentiment and both of those are in a state of flux.
There is a good deal of economic reports coming out this week, including CPI, PPI, inventories, retail sales, capacity utilization and industrial production. some stabilization in each of these indicators is expected, which should serve as good news for markets. However, since stocks have already seen an historic run, any further gains will be hard-earned.
Friday, May 8, 2009
Phony Monetized Rally Rocks On
With the Fed monetizing the nation's debt and expanding its balance sheet faster than a Keynesian can say "Zimbabwe", the big bear rally from hell continued through its 9th week and there's no sign of it slowing down.
From what were the worst economic conditions in the first quarter of 2009, the latter part of March thereon has been nothing but a mindless joyride, or a joyless mind-ride, depending on your predisposition. Straight up from 12-year lows has been the order of the many days since March 9, so, with another week coming to an end, it's time to take account and see just how far the indices have advanced.
Following are the closing figures from the four main food groups, er, indices tracked here, with closing numbers from March 9 and May 8, with point and percentage gains:
Dow Jones Industrials: 6,547.05, 8,574.88, +2027.83, +31%
S&P 500: 676.53, 929.23, +252.70, +37%
NASDAQ: 1268.64, 1739.00, +470.36, +37%
NYSE Composite: 4226.31, 6000.39, +1774.08, +42%
WOW! I need say no more, but, due to the vastness of open space on the internet, I shall.
Stocks, of course, are prone to fluctuations. They are also prone to sentiment, manipulation and propaganda, such as has been devised by the Wall Street syndicate and government technocrats and tossed, chum-like, to the zombified public by the slavish mainstream and financial media, that we've turned a corner, the recession has bottomed out, etc., sounding so much like the Bush administration's assessments of progress in the Iraq war circa 2004-2008 that it's uncanny, even eerie.
Dow 8,574.65, +164.80 (1.96%)
NASDAQ 1,739.00, +22.76 (1.33%)
S&P 500 929.23, +21.84 (2.41%)
NYSE Composite 6,000.39, +200.30 (3.45%)
Advancing issues overwhelmed decliners, 5246-1335, though new lows outweighed new highs, 97-58. Volume was very high, just about the same as yesterday's level.
NYSE Volume 1,895,686,000
NASDAQ Volume 3,200,076,000
Oil went up another $1.92, to $58.56, a six-month high. Gold fell back 60 cents, to $914.90, as Central banks have begun paying agents to dump the yellow metal, as noted by negative real lease rates. Silver responded in sympathy, falling 8 cents to $13.96.
The official unemployment figure was boosted to 8.9%, while the real, unofficial unemployment figure - which includes people who have given up and those unwillingly working part-time - stands at 18%.
But, never mind those stats. Free money, dudes! Step up and make some dough!
That's all I've got this fine Friday afternoon. C YA!
From what were the worst economic conditions in the first quarter of 2009, the latter part of March thereon has been nothing but a mindless joyride, or a joyless mind-ride, depending on your predisposition. Straight up from 12-year lows has been the order of the many days since March 9, so, with another week coming to an end, it's time to take account and see just how far the indices have advanced.
Following are the closing figures from the four main food groups, er, indices tracked here, with closing numbers from March 9 and May 8, with point and percentage gains:
Dow Jones Industrials: 6,547.05, 8,574.88, +2027.83, +31%
S&P 500: 676.53, 929.23, +252.70, +37%
NASDAQ: 1268.64, 1739.00, +470.36, +37%
NYSE Composite: 4226.31, 6000.39, +1774.08, +42%
WOW! I need say no more, but, due to the vastness of open space on the internet, I shall.
Stocks, of course, are prone to fluctuations. They are also prone to sentiment, manipulation and propaganda, such as has been devised by the Wall Street syndicate and government technocrats and tossed, chum-like, to the zombified public by the slavish mainstream and financial media, that we've turned a corner, the recession has bottomed out, etc., sounding so much like the Bush administration's assessments of progress in the Iraq war circa 2004-2008 that it's uncanny, even eerie.
Dow 8,574.65, +164.80 (1.96%)
NASDAQ 1,739.00, +22.76 (1.33%)
S&P 500 929.23, +21.84 (2.41%)
NYSE Composite 6,000.39, +200.30 (3.45%)
Advancing issues overwhelmed decliners, 5246-1335, though new lows outweighed new highs, 97-58. Volume was very high, just about the same as yesterday's level.
NYSE Volume 1,895,686,000
NASDAQ Volume 3,200,076,000
Oil went up another $1.92, to $58.56, a six-month high. Gold fell back 60 cents, to $914.90, as Central banks have begun paying agents to dump the yellow metal, as noted by negative real lease rates. Silver responded in sympathy, falling 8 cents to $13.96.
The official unemployment figure was boosted to 8.9%, while the real, unofficial unemployment figure - which includes people who have given up and those unwillingly working part-time - stands at 18%.
But, never mind those stats. Free money, dudes! Step up and make some dough!
That's all I've got this fine Friday afternoon. C YA!
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Ponzi Would Be Proud On Stress Test Results
First, let's not confuse Charles Ponzi (that's him on the left) with Arthur Herbert Fonzarelli (otherwise known as actor Henry Winkler in the role of "Fonzie" or "the Fonz" on 70s hit TV show "Happy Days" - shown at right). Sure, the names sound familiar, but that's where such familiarity ends.Charles Ponzi was a swindler extraordinaire, who paid investors outlandish profits by continually bringing in fresh capital from other investors (or "suckers" as the case may be). Ponzi never actually invested any money in anything; he simply churned what seemed to be - at the time - a never-ending supply of money from pigeons to keep the appearance of a grand investment going. Thus, the term "Ponzi scheme" became popularized for this kind of endeavor, also known as a pyramid or airplane scheme.
Alfred Fonzarelli was a fictional character who exuded the hip and cool of a 50's greaser. His trademark leather jacket and slicked-back hair were elements of his persona. But Fonzie was honest, though arguably crude. Ponzi, a real person, was a cheat, and a great one. Some believe Bernie Madoff is the present-day embodiment of Charles Ponzi.
Now that we have the introductions out of the way, let's get to the core issue: that of the government's bank stress tests, which results are finally going to be released to the public, today, at 5:00 pm EDT. After months of nail-biting anticipation, it appears that 10 or 11 of the nation's largest 19 financial institutions are actually not in very good health. Here is a nice capsule of the results. Here is a NY Times article offering some rather scathing reviews on the entire stress test process from some very well-respected economic heavyweights.
Finally, here is a story and video from Yahoo! Tech Ticker which explains how Bank of America needs $34 billion of additional capital, and how they plan to get that by converting the TARP funds ostensibly "loaned" from the government (taxpayers) from preferred stock into common stock, resulting in a surplus of $11 billion with which they can then begin paying back the TARP funds. Yes, you read that right, BofA will use TARP funds to pay back TARP funds.
Only in America can bankers and politicians steal in such plain view from taxpayers. Certainly Charles Ponzi would be proud. Fonzie, for his part, might say, "Heeey, that's no way to treat people." Naturally, the truth-loving Fonzie is right. The US taxpayers are being taken to the cleaners on this one.
Maybe there's a silver lining in all of this hanky panky. Stocks were pounded down pretty well for most of today's session, on relatively strong volume. Could it be that some of the fund managers and top investors are seeing this for what it is - outright fraud - and calling an end to Wall Street's wild rally? Could be, but, considering the length and size of said recent rally, it's going to take more than a day or two of declines to straighten out the newest mess, that of stocks being wildly overvalued again.
As I've been saying all along (and I have plenty of company in my opinions, too), the banks aer not in good health. The stress tests were just a smoke screen, the PPIP is a bad joke at best, almost none of the various illiquid assets held by these banks have been disposed of, rather, they have been revalued using mark-to-model rather then the more accurate (and honest) mark-to-mark accounting, the Fed is now monetizing the national debt in addition to taking on all sorts of toxic waste, and, to top it all off, Thursday's Treasury auction of 30-year notes was a resounding failure, poorly received, with 30-year bond yields hitting 4.309%.
It's a mess of even more gigantic proportions that before the government began its meddling nearly eight months ago. Now, stocks will have to compete with higher bond yields, as will mortgage rates, which the government hoped to keep low, while the banks try to raise a cumulative $65 billion from private sources, in direct competition with the enormous Treasury sales to finance the burgeoning US debt, which will cost more and more to service if yields continue to climb.
So, a good number of investors took today's sloppy news flow and decided it was time to take some of their quick profits off the table. Not such a bad idea, despite the growing consensus that the economy is on the upswing (maybe, but probably not) with the Labor Dept. due to release nonfarm payroll data for April on Friday - tomorrow.
While the estimate is for job losses to total only 490-590,000, certainly less than March's 663,000, it's hardly cause for celebration, in light of the fact that the US economy needs to create 150,000 jobs per month just to keep pace with population increases and new entrants into the labor force. The calculations of the Labor Dept. also do not account for the 54,000 Chrysler employees being furloughed for 30 to 60 days, nor the 200,000 GM employees who will be idled for as many as 9 weeks this summer. Nor does the government count workers who have exhausted their unemployment insurance, those who are working part time instead of full time in their estimate of the unemployment rate of 8.9%. Others, including economists at the University of Maryland, put the figure at closer to 17%.
Add to the malaise that LA Dodger Manny Ramirez has been suspended by MLB for 50 games for violating their banned substance policy. He will not be paid roughly a third of his $25 million salary. So there's another $8.5 million not being spent into the economy right there! Yikes!
So, maybe today was a good time to get out of stocks. After all the major indices have risen by more than 30% over the past 8-9 weeks.
Dow 8,409.85, -102.43 (1.20%)
NASDAQ 1,716.24, -42.86 (2.44%)
S&P 500 907.39, -12.14 (1.32%)
NYSE Composite 5,800.15, -90.40 (1.53%)
Declining issues took the advantage over advancers, 4255-2281; new lows surpassed new highs once more, 95-52, and volume was stupendous, higher even than yesterday's. There certainly is no lack of trading going on as the economic wheels turn, or, grind, whichever case you prefer.
NYSE Volume 1,969,476,000
NASDAQ Volume 3,274,508,000
Commodities were bounced around by conflicting data, but oil managed a gain of 37 cents, to $56.39. Gold rose another $4.50, to $915.50, continuing the recent trend of gains, as did silver, which crossed the $13.80 threshold - the price at which melt value of US coins equals 10X their face value - with a rush, gaining 32 cents, to $14.03.
Most of the news flow for the week complete, investors will have until tomorrow morning's opening bell to weigh all the factors, including the nonfarm payroll figures, due out at 8:30 am. It's anyone's guess which way they'll turn, but one thing's for sure: the economy is not in as rosy shape as the news and pundits would have us believe. The recent bout of "green shoots" and "semi-positive" readings were more of the nature of falling at a less-pronounced pace than earlier this year or last fall. The US economy is still weakening, though not quite as quickly as before.
It's like saying a man clawed and chewed a lion only losing one arm and one leg is good news. He's still alive and he's got one of each type of limb left. Really, how many people would call that "good" news? Seriously, folks, it's not a matter of perception. The reality is not that the glass is half full or half empty, it's that the glass has a hole in the bottom.
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