Something Is Amiss In the UK, USA

What happened to stocks today was truly unusual. Despite the Conference Board's Leading Indicators Index rising by 1.0% - the first gain in ten months - investors were not in the mood to continue the 9-week-long rally any further. This is what happens when markets are rigged, when large institutions control the government, the media and the majority of the trading. Stocks will not do what people think they will. It's why the rally came off the lows in March like an uncaged lion, never pulled back at any point and now is so completely overbought that there is no opportunity for buying anymore.

The lone indicator which remained constant throughout - new highs to new lows - got even on Tuesday and backed into the red - favoring new lows - Wednesday, and dipped further Thursday. It clearly has been the most accurate predictor of stock movements, having favored the new highs every day for the last 19 months except on 5 or 6 occasions. Clearly, stocks are headed lower, interest rates higher, and the US economy into the abyss.

The decline was broad and could have been more pronounced, but that is a story for another day, when there is actual news to send the market reeling and investors seeking safe havens (in bonds and gold). No, this decline, back to the March lows some 1800 points on the Dow down below, is going to be a long, slow grind which may take as long as 6 to 9 months to complete. Along the way will be fits and starts, but the end game gets closer and closer, somewhere around the summer of 2010 or spring of 2011. The US economy is dead, killed by the bankers, the Fed and the government morons who were supposed to be in charge but rather deserve nothing short of a hangman's noose.

Dow 8,292.13, -129.91 (1.54%)
NASDAQ 1,695.25, -32.59 (1.89%)
S&P 500 888.33, -15.14 (1.68%)
NYSE Composite 5,780.54, -89.85 (1.53%)

Declining issues overtook advancers, 4656-1778. New lows outpaced new highs, 59-33. Expect that gap to grow steadily over time. Volume was typical of the slower summer months.

NYSE Volume 1,437,849,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,252,413,000

Meanwhile, commodities showed their true colors. Oil fell 99 cents, to $61.05 per barrel. It is still overpriced by at least $10 per barrel. Gold gained $13.80, to $951.20 per ounce. It is headed back above $1000, probably by the middle of June, if not sooner. Silver gained again, up 17 cents, to $14.45 per ounce. Silver may be the very best investment of 2009. It could hit $30 by year's end.

Bonds were hammered, pushing yields higher, as the US dollar was knocked down in vicious trading on the Forex markets. The beginning of the end of the greenback as the world's reserve currency is at hand. Within the next two years at least a dozen municipalities will default on their debt and three or more states - New York, California, New Jersey and maybe more - will default for failure to make necessary cuts in spending and staffing.

The world has noticed that the US is full of crap, financially, politically, socially and morally. And the world is not going to take it lying down. Revenge, by the countries the US has abused, misused, bombed, threatened, and tortured, will be complete within years. If you are one of the people out there keeping your government job, hoping for the best, or, worse, not even thinking about the state of our nation, you will be caught by surprise.

Preparing for the end of the short reign of the USA as the world's superpower is serious business. And most of us are unprepared, unable to see the light, see the obvious signs and take action. Our government has been off the rails for most of the past decade, the corruption rampant and moral turpitude complete. It's not a matter of left or right, Democrat or Republican. It's all of them, together, who have misused their positions, abrogated their authority and ignored or disobeyed the laws of the land. We, the people, have allowed it, and we, the people, will pay a heavy price for allowing our government to run amok and afoul of the constitution.

The end is coming. There is little time to prepare.

Banks Raise Cash... Probably From Each Other

Even before the release of last month's Fed meeting minutes, stocks had been stumbling off earlier highs, but the word from the Fed did little to assuage fears that recovery may not be so swift or as robust as some had predicted.

After the 2:00 pm release of the Fed minutes, stocks vacillated before finally giving way in the final hour. Whether the decline has any meaning in the larger scheme of things remains to be seen. It was, however, the second straight losing day for the Dow, with Wednesday's loss larger than Tuesday's.

Two days do not make a trend, but there is evidence enough that stocks have reached at least a temporary apex, though that sentiment has been expressed - incorrectly - plenty of times during the course of this rally. Stocks could go anywhere, so long as the corrupted banksters are in charge. Having taken control of the federal government from the elected pols, the mighty of Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, et. al., have engineered the recent rally and have enough power to direct the stock market in any direction they choose.

The economy is a vastly different beast, controlled by real people in real cities and towns with real money, not the phony, borrowed, decrepit electronic dollars that populate the Wall Street world. That is why there has been such a dramatic disconnect between the stock market and the real economy. Wall Street has rallied 30% in recent months, while the economy continued to decline, or, at best, slowly deteriorate.

Stocks got something of a boost from news that Bank of America had raised some $13.5 billion over the past two weeks via sales of common stock. Naturally, selling 1.25 billion shares is going to be dilutive, so shares of BofA (BAC) have fallen from just over $15 per share to roughly $11.50 today. That part makes enough sense, but one really has to wonder just who it is buying all these shares. As with the TARP, TALF, and other government inspirations, word of self-dealing has never been raised, for obvious reasons. If Citi, BofA, Goldman, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan all need to raise capital, what's preventing them from buying each other's stocks? Nothing, exactly, nothing, and in this environment, one has to assume that's what's occurring. Time will tell.

Dow 8,422.04, -52.81 (0.62%)
NASDAQ 1,727.84, -6.70 (0.39%)
S&P 500 903.47, -4.66 (0.51%)
NYSE Composite 5,870.39, -1.83 (0.03%)

On the day, advancing issues beat decliners, 3296-3179. New lows beat new highs, 76-68. Volume was once again muted.

NYSE Volume 1,651,344,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,308,490,000

Oil jumped another $1.94, to $62.04. Gold gained $10.70, to $937.40. Silver was up 16 cents to $14.28. The commodity rally may be underway, but it also may be a bit premature. In the case of oil, that's more than likely a manipulated price, since the market is so heavily controlled by the five major oil companies.

Wilting Green Shoots: Housing Starts at Record Low

You are being led like sheep to the slaughter.

Every day, financial information is released, most of it bad, and every day, without fail, the financial press warps the news with unfounded optimism and wraps it in a garland of rosy future predictions.

Take, for instance, how briefing.com couches the low record-setting level of housing starts and construction permits in positive spin:

News that housing starts and building permits recently fell below expectations jostled participants in the early going and undermined what was a positive bias ahead of the opening bell. Housing starts during April came in at an annualized rate of 458,000, while building permits for April hit a rate of 494,000. Both marked record lows.

However, there is a silver lining to the report. Fewer housing starts and building permits means there will be fewer homes on the market, which should help clear the glut of existing homes and improve pricing.

Even Bloomberg plays the bad-news-is-good-news game. First, the Bloomberg story says, "Housing starts unexpectedly slid 13 percent..." and later offers the wisdom of Wachovia economist Adam York, who opines, “This continues to support the story that new construction probably bottoms by early summer...”

Let's take a look at these stories. First, in the briefing.com spin, they point out that the bad news on housing upset the market's positive bias and "jostled" participants. Their "silver lining" reference is pure hokum: It's akin to saying that not selling out a performance of a play was good because it meant more leg and arm room for those few in attendance.

As for Bloomberg, they begin with the "unexpected" line. This is a ploy used constantly by the media. Apparently, nobody in the world expects anything bad to occur. It's not true. A daily read of my blog and a perusal of writings of people like Nouriel Robini, Jim Willie CB, Rob Kirby, Pam Martens, James Quinn, J. R. Nyquist, Paul Nolte. Mike Whitney and many others who aren't pushing an agenda reveals that there is no consensus on recovery and no gilt-lined packaging on economic data. Those who see and believe the trends and figures for what they are - signs of further deterioration - base their opinions in reality, not the fantasy that has become so popular on Wall Street, CNBC and the mainstream media.

The truth - if you can handle it - is that the economy is busted, broken, defunct, defaulted and despoiled. Sure, there will be a bottom, but probably not until mid-2010 at the earliest, and, even then, any recovery is likely to be weak. As I've been saying for some time, the Us economy is in a long-term downtrend that will last anywhere from 6 to 12 years. Standards of living will continue to decline, or, at best, not improve. This is not to say that everyone will be devastated, though many will. Americans have to make adjustments in their expectations for everything, especially their finances. Sadly, the mainstream media, Wall St., and the federal government isn't preparing the populace for the inevitability of a long, sustained depression.

Dow 8,474.85, -29.23 (0.34%)
Nasdaq 1,734.54, +2.18 (0.13%)
S&P 500 908.13, -1.58 (0.17%)
NYSE Composite 5,872.22, +6.35 (0.11%)

Advancing issues outdid decliners, 3682-2760. New highs finally caught new lows, at 61 apiece, for only the sixth time in the past daily readings in 19 months. Volume was moderate. The rollover of new high-new lows is expected to be short-lived. The markets can only remain at these elevated levels for a short period before insider selling takes stocks back down to near March lows, and then, lower. While I don't possess a crystal ball, I do know that the new highs-lows has been a consistently reliable indicator and any push to the other side - with more new highs than new lows - for a prolonged period, would signal the beginning of a new bull market. Obviously, this is not the case, so the conclusion to be drawn is that this is a signal of the end of the 2 1/2-month rally, shortly.

NYSE Volume 6,693,324,500
Nasdaq Volume 2,128,807,750

Oil gained again, up 62 cents, to $59.65. Gold rebounded $5.00 higher, to $926.70, while silver added 30 cents, to $14.13.

You best investment choices continue to be undervalued real estate, especially foreclosures and raw, arable land, gold and, of course, silver, which is likely to at least double over the coming two years and appreciate further after that.

Who's Buying Bank Stocks?

Apparently, the very same banks that were bailed out by the TAXPAYERS over the last six months are now the hottest properties on the stock market. For those of you out there buying these broken-down businesses stuffed with toxic debt and run by managers who are part of a criminal syndicate, all the best.

To the rest of the investing crowd, there aren't a lot of good investments out there right now, since stocks have already made a 30% move off the lows experienced in March. So, how much higher can these pricey investments go? Remember, price-earnings ratios of 15-20 are for high-fliers, not run-of-the-mill companies, many of which are actually showing signs of slowing, rather than improving.

Today's big move was based on less than nothing. There were no revelations of fresh health for the US economy, which continues to sink further into a black hole of debt and job destruction. When a market watcher as astute as Bob Brinker, host of radio show "Money Talk," says that the US economy is a "fiscal train wreck" one can only assume that more trouble is dead ahead. The light at the end of the tunnel is not a sign of hope, but the oncoming engine of destruction known as quantitative easing and inflation.

Dow 8,504.08, +235.44 (2.85%)
NASDAQ 1,732.36, +52.22 (3.11%)
S&P 500 909.71, +26.83 (3.04%)
NYSE Composite 5,865.87. +202.98 (3.58%)

Advancing issues buried decliners, 5465-1096, a better than 5-1 ratio. Today was abnormal for many reasons, but surely one has to the the extreme disparity in the A-D line. Stocks were already near a recent peak, but this activity is just more piling on to a rally that should have run out of steam long ago. The market is being played higher by big money presently. As soon as enough small investors jump in, the money flow will reverse. New highs nearly surpassed new lows today, marking the closest margin between the two in many, many months. New lows continued to hold their advantage, as they have for 19 months, 68-57. Today's volume was rather squeamish, putting a somewhat questionable tone on the big advance. Were there an actual reason for stocks to be bid higher, volume would have been more pronounced.

NYSE Volume 1,423,339,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,002,612,000

Oil gained $2.69, to $59.03. Gold was lower by $3.20, to $918.50. Silver finished down 7 cents, to $13.76.

There's still a crowd talking about the economy "bottoming out" which has provided much of the fuel of recent sentiment. Actual evidence that the economy is improving is still rather difficult to find. There haven't been this many bulls roaming Wall Street since the area was a pasture. Beware you don't get trampled as they rush out at the next reality check.

Slow Death Torture for Investors

Another down day for stocks on Friday ends just the the first negative week in the last 10, but it's the beginning of a trend which investors would be prescient to note. Stocks, in the past 10 weeks, went from falling off a cliff to overvalued. They are reverting to something resembling fair value in an orderly fashion, though nobody really has a grip on what "fair value" really means today.

In more sensible times, fair value may have been something along the lines of a stock which returns a 4-5% dividend, a price-earnings ratio of anywhere from 6-12 and a reasonably good chance at appreciating in value over time. These, however, are anything but sensible times. The US economy is on its deathbed, being kept on life support by fresh injections of capital, government entitlements (welfare, social security, disability benefits, government and military pensions, unemployment insurance, etc.) and a steady infusion of fresh capital from the Federal Reserve.

There is very little left of the private sector, and even less opportunity for new business ventures. Taxes and regulations have crowded out innovation, and that condition will only worsen as the current crop of legislators in Washington work to codify everything from health care to working conditions in every business with more than five employees. More than half of the country's GDP is a product of government spending, much of it on borrowed money. And the money being borrowed is probably not going to be paid back.

As for the social programs - Social Security and Medicare - if you are under 50 years of age, you might as well kiss that money you contribute every week goodbye, because there is absolutely no way on earth that the government will be able to fulfill those obligations. As the economy shrinks, less tax revenue will be collected and these programs will be cut back severely. America is being purposely devolved into a third-world nation, complete with unpayable debts, widespread poverty and a gap between rich and poor wider than the Grand Canyon.

For those of you still investing in corporate America via stocks or mutual funds, we wish you only the best of luck. You would be better served playing the horses or betting on sporting events. At least there you have a fighting chance. Once the summer is over and it becomes clear that the economy is mired in a semi-permanent state of stagnation, the stock market will fall like dandruff from a bum's locks. After the slow decline back to the 6500 level on the Dow, the plunge to below 5000 will be swift and fatal.

Some companies will survive, but a wave of bankruptcies will make the current hilarity of GM and Chrysler look like a summertime picnic.

Dow 8,268.64, -62.68 (0.75%)
NASDAQ 1,680.14, -9.07 (0.54%)
S&P 500 882.88, -10.19 (1.14%)
NYSE Composite 5,662.89, -70.56 (1.23%)

On Friday, declining issues outnumbered advancing ones, 5017-2392. New lows: 65; New highs: 16. Volume was poor. Everybody wants to hold here, though some are taking profits. Faith in the markets is a very dangerous virtue.

NYSE Volume 1,480,708,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,214,244,000

Finally, the market is beginning to reawaken to the new reality of slack demand. Oil fell $2.28, to $56.34, which is still probably $10-20 higher than what the real price should be. Gold advanced again, gaining $2.90, to $931.30. Silver slipped a bit, down 3 cents, to $14.01. Most other energy and food commodities were lower on the day.

The feds offered more bailout money to a variety of insurance companies, though a few say they don't want the money. Still, how many more companies involved in the dirty money dealing is the government going to give taxpayer funds? The bill is already too high, but the feds seem to know no limit to America's largess. The absurdity continues to amaze fundamentalist economists.

To get a grip on where we're heading, one need look no further than April's CPI numbers, which fell by 0.7% year-over-year, the largest decline since the mid-50s. The deflationary spiral which began at least 18 months ago (don't believe the government numbers) is now gathering momentum. Pricing power for companies is kaput. Deflation, hated by the Fed, may be the only true salvation for the nation.

A sign of the times comes from the Buffalo News, in a story about billionaire Tom Golisano, who made his fortune by founding and running Rochester-based Paychex, Inc. (PAYX). Golisano, long a critic of NY politics and unions, announced that he was leaving the state and moving to Florida, saying he will save $13,000 a day in taxes. That amounts to a revenue loss of $4,745,000 over a year's time.

Golisano is not alone. Radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh has already stated that he too would leave the state. Truth of the matter for Mr. Limbaugh is that he spends little time in the state, but has various businesses registered there. With the exodus of rich folks from the state, one might as well throw budget estimates out the window.

Enjoy the Preakness tomorrow. That filly is a good one.