Short Session, Big Losses on Dubai Debt

Friday's abbreviated session answered the question of why stocks did not advance much in Wednesday's pre-holiday trading, when all of the economic news was positive. Overhanging the market was word from Dubai - on Wednesday - that the government was requesting a six-month moratorium on interest payments, mostly from its major real estate developer, Dubai World.

While the news did not noticeably affect markets in the US, the news shook Asian and European markets violently on Thursday. US stock exchanges were closed for Thanksgiving.

Quoting the NY Times:

According to data from the Bank for International Settlements, foreign banks have $130 billion of exposure to the United Arab Emirates, with Britain having the largest exposure, $51 billion. Banks in the United States have debts of $13 billion.

At the open on Friday, stock futures were indicating a massive sell-off, with Dow futures down more than 200 points. After an initial selling spree which sent the Dow down more than 230 points, cooler heads prevailed for a time, bringing the indices back to some level of respectability and calm. By the close, however, fears of another round of banking crises had investors scurrying for the exits, not wanting to hold positions over a weekend in which many of these issues would be pondered.

Dow 10,309.92, -154.48 (1.48%)
NASDAQ 2,138.44, -37.61 (1.73%)
S&P 500 1,091.49, -19.14 (1.72%)
NYSE Composite 7,070.09, -162.03 (2.24%)

On the day, declining issues far outpaced advancers, 5211-1086. New highs held a slim edge over new lows, 98-85. Volume was only average, indicating a hope that markets would return to a more normal tone in days ahead. There was little panic to speak of, though every sector finished in the red.

NYSE Volume 2,846,343,000
NASDAQ Volume 972,038,750

Commodities took the bigger hit. Oil tumbled $3.06, to $74.90, its lowest close in months. Gold fell $12.60, to $1,176.00, though the price had fallen by as much as $30 during the day. Silver slipped 47 cents, holding at $18.34.

What Dubai means to US banking interests is a relatively small matter, as only Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) hold anything approaching what would be considered large obligations. The general fear - a holdover from last year's major meltdown - is a more severe liquidity issue, cascading across the financial landscape in unpaid loans and the roll-over of resultant guarantees (Credit Default Swaps) which would put more banks at risk.

While it is possible that another severe shock could ensue, it's more likely that central banks will intervene in the interest of the banks, propping them up with more guarantees and looser credit facilities, much like last year's rescue. Still, there are palpable fears out there, that the entire system is prone to disruptions like this as more emerging markets face similar issues.

Paper money rolling off printing presses at high speed can only delay the inevitable. Eventually, losses must be taken or parties made whole. The most probable outcome is continuation of the deflationary spiral, which the central bankers of the world wish to avoid.

The simplest way to understand the issue is in terms of mortgages. As more money is pumped into the system, chasing the bad, assets - everything from stocks to houses - become less valuable. The home purchased for $200,000 a year ago is only worth $160,000, an so on. Devaluing currencies to reflect lower asset values, a hard, painful choice, seems the proper medicine, but one which world banking and political leaders have yet refused to consider.

Wading Through Data, Stocks Up in Light Trading

For the second straight session, investors were met with a slew of economic reports prior to, and then, during the trading session which influenced decisions on stocks. However, with the Thanksgiving holiday on the horizon, volume was so light that no reasonable conclusions can be drawn from the day's results.

As it was, stocks returned modest gains which more than offset Tuesday's slim losses, though given the positive tone of the news, one would normally have expected much better.

Dow 10,464.40, +30.69 (0.29%)
NASDAQ 2,176.05, +6.87 (0.32%)
S&P 500 1,110.63, +4.98 (0.45%)
NYSE Composite 7,232.12, +61.86 (0.86%)

Advancing issues led decliners, 3849-2576, and new highs beat new lows by an impressive 332-66. Despite the horrendously low volume, sentiment, driven by some key numbers, was quite positive.

NYSE Volume 3,479,942,250
NASDAQ Volume 1,414,185,375

Among the data received in the morning was an unexpected drop in initial unemployment claims, down to 466,000, when expectations were for around 500,000. Also positive were the readings on personal income (up 0.2%) and personal spending (up 0.7%). The lone negative result was in durable orders, which showed a 0.6% decline for October, though most of the loss was based on lower defense spending, which, in the long term, is likely a positive. Having the government spending less on arms for war would likely rank high on the list wishes of most Americans.

After the session began, bew home sales also showed an unexpected uptick, to a seasonally-adjusted 430,000 units in October. Even with those solid numbers in place, stocks showed barely any upward interest, meandering along in a very narrow range throughout the day.

The US dollar show weakness once again, boosting gold prices to new records. Gold closed up $20.60, to $1,188.00. Silver gained 31 cents, to finish at $18.80. Oil, after a sluggish morning, was up $1.94, to $77.96.

Overall, there simply was not enough money going into stocks to create much of a stir. Despite the slow trade, however, the Dow and S&P managed to finish at 13-month highs.

Markets are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and re-open for a short session, from 9:30 am until 1:00 pm ET on Friday.

Stocks Slightly in Red Amidst Heavy Economic Data

With investors digesting an avalanche of economic data, stocks spent the entire session in the red, even though the major indices finished with modest losses by day's end.

The overall tone was set early on, when the government reported its first revision to 3rd quarter GDP, which came in exactly at the estimates, showing the economy grew at a 2.8% annualized pace. That seemingly wasn't good enough, as futures fell immediately after the reading.

At 9:00 am, the S&P/Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index showed a decline of 9.4% for September, slightly more than estimates. That reading didn't help matters, nor did a positive reading on consumer confidence - 49.5, up from 48.7 in October - at 10:00 am.

The negative tone was exacerbated by a stronger US Dollar, discouraging the normal risk trade. At 2:00 pm, minutes from the latest FOMC meeting of the Fed (Nov. 3-4) were released, and that seemed to calm some nerves into the close. What was revealed in the minutes was unsurprising, as the Fed saw industrial production improvements, slight increases in personal expenditures, low inflation risk and continuing high unemployment.

There was some actual discussion amongst the participants concerning the ever-decreasing value of the US Dollar, though overall the committee was unfazed by what they say as a natural, orderly unwinding of "safe-haven demand" as the economic conditions stabilized around the world. With that kind of language coming straight from the Fed, investors should be quite a bit less concerned that the dollar is going "off the deep end" in relation to other currencies, and about to lose its favored reserve status.

Dow 10,433.71, -17.24 (0.16%)
NASDAQ 2,169.18, -6.83 (0.31%)
S&P 500 1,105.65, -0.59 (0.05%)
NYSE Composite 7,170.26, -16.07 (0.22%)

On the day, simple indicators were in line with the headline numbers, with declining issues beating back advancers, 3658-2799. New highs exceeded new lows, 186-65, and volume continued to poke along at the new-normal pace.

NYSE Volume 4,345,491,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,873,632,375

Commodities were mixed, as they have been in recent days. Crude oil futures continued to slip, down $1.54, to $76.02, the lowest level in more than two months. Gold gained $1.90, to $1,166.60, though silver dropped 16 cents, to $18.49.

Tomorrow's trading will again be influenced by economic data, including readings on personal income, weekly unemployment claims, durable goods orders, another consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan, new home sales and crude inventories. With all that to consider throughout the day, traders will likely be giving thanks just to get away from the flurry of facts, numbers and statistics being thrown about.

After the one-day holiday on Thursday, markets will be open for a half-session, with everything shutting down at 1:00 pm on Black Friday. With retail's biggest one-day event as a backdrop, the focus will be turning from drab economic data to how robust or dull the holiday shopping season will be. Estimates have been somewhat tempered, with most calling for only slight improvement from last year, which was one of the worst on record.

Any anecdotal evidence from Black Friday will make for another spurt in the indices, which are close to a high point, even though the usual talk of the market being "tired" has not surfaced of late. There could be another 5-10% or more left to run before the year is out, as stocks do not seem to want to stay down for long, as has been the case since the beginning of the rally back in March.

Higher Finish for Stocks to Open Holiday Week

Encouraged by an impressive 10.1% monthly gain in existing home sales for October, to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.10 million units, investors piled into stocks with reckless abandon Monday morning. Once again, the risk trade provided additional lift, as the US Dollar fell against most major foreign currencies. Shortly after 10:00 am ET, the Dow Jones Industrials reached their highs of the day, up more than 175 points, with dead aim at 10,500.

Though stocks meandered throughout the remainder of the session and finished off their highs, it was still a robust trading day in New York, with renewed buying interest during the final half-hour. Stocks finished much closer to their high than the open, countering three straight days of losses and leaving the Dow at a closing high for the year.

The NASDAQ and S&P finished with healthy gains, retracing toward the highs set early last week. With markets closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and a half-day session on Friday, stocks are poised to finish November on a high note. The last day of trading for the month is a week away, on the 30th.

Dow 10,450.95, +132.79 (1.29%)
NASDAQ 2,176.01, +29.97 (1.40%)
S&P 500 1,106.24, +14.86 (1.36%)
NYSE Compos 7,186.33, +101.86 (1.44%)

Advancing issues outperformed decliners handily, 4845-1644, or roughly 3:1. New highs totaled 429, to just 69 new lows. Volume continued to be disappointing to many market observers, though by now the lower volume figures have to be accepted as the "new normal" as the recovery for stocks continues to stretch its gains. Those in the bearish camp cannot honestly espouse the thinking that this rally, devoid of heavy volume for the most part, is not the real deal. A nearly 4000 point rise in the Dow Jones Industrials has to be considered an exceptional rally, no matter the level of trading. Those who have missed one of the largest moves in the history of the market are only trying to salve the wounds received from non-participation.

NYSE Volume 4,468,339,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,859,754,500

Gold continued to be the story of the year, gaining another $18.00, to $1,164.80, another record close. Silver did its best to keep pace, picking up 18 cents, to $18.59. Oil was hardly affected, up just 9 cents, to $77.56.

Today's rather euphoric sentiment may not be long-lived, however, as more economic data will flow to the market prior to the opening bell on Tuesday. The second reading on GDP is expected to come in well short of the initial measure from last month of 3.5% growth. Experts are looking for a more temperate 2.8% read. At 9:00 am, the Case Shiller 20 City Index is released. Fed minutes from their November meeting are due out at 2:00 pm. The minutes are highly-anticipated. After keeping interest rates at the same level last month, analysts did not get any clue as to future Fed moves. There is hope in some camps that the central bank will offer more clarity about when it plans to tighten (raise) rates.

On the bullish side, the outlook is for the Fed to reveal little more than the normal shadowy wording that normally accompanies the initial release. Besides the US dollar trade set-up being currently positive for stocks, investors aren't really keen on the Fed making any premature moves, and, if history is any guide, they'll be in no hurry to take away the punch bowl, tightening only when inflation already has a firm grip. With Ben Bernanke - an inflation dove - at the helm, expect this Fed to keep rates low for much longer than necessary.

Those seeking some guidance from the wording of the minutes are those same bearish types who still have cash in money market funds, earning less than one percent. For them, the market gains are painful. For those in the game, it's been a delight.

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