On Getting What You Want, Part 1

Wall Street and the financial markets are odd and unpredictable. That's why some people win and some lose, and why the individual investor is at a disadvantage compared to those wizened professionals who ply their trade daily in stocks, bonds, et. al..

Because the whims of the market are so unpredictable and can turn on a dime on a news item, a press release, an event - economic, social or political - the average Jane and/or Joe is likely to suffer losses when pros have already gotten out ahead of the pack. The law of the jungle applies, and always has. The fittest get fatter; the weak are thrown to the wolves.

Noting that, the marketeers have finally gotten some news upon which they can act. Reported after the closing bell, Intel (INTC, 21.48) reported a fourth-quarter profit of $2.3 billion, or 40 cents a share, compared with a profit of $234 million, or 4 cents a share, for the year-earlier period. These numbers were well ahead of expectations. In fact the company delivered a 33% earnings surprise, good as gold in anybody's book.

Tomorrow ought to be a red-letter day for tech stocks, as one of the firebrands, Intel, has set some heat under upcoming earnings for the rest of the sector. Trouble is, as great a company as Intel is - and it's definitely top-shelf - the stocks was a loser for the entire 00s decade and seems to be permanently stuck in a range just above its historic lows, because it is already overvalued, by just about any measure.

Intel's price/earnings ratio, using trailing figures, is about 28. Even if the company has quarters equal to this one for the next three running and the stock doesn't go up, it will still be trading at more than 13 times earnings, meaning it would take 13 years of similar profitability just to get your money back. It does carry a dividend of 53 cents per share, but at the current price, that's a yield of less than 3%. It's a great company, all right, and it would be a buy at any price below 15. 12 would be a good starting point, but it will likely never go there. Since Intel isn't going to ever move, tech traders will begin looking elsewhere tomorrow. Don't be surprised if Intel trends lower over the coming weeks. It's a dog and the pros know it, even though it's a part of just about every fund portfolio.

Before that after-the-bell experience, stocks did what they've generally been doing for the past month. They rose slightly.

Dow 10,710.55, +29.78 (0.28%)
NASDAQ 2,316.74, +8.84 (0.38%)
S&P 500 1,148.46, +2.78 (0.24%)
NYSE Composite 7,448.52, +18.38 (0.25%)

Advancing issues were all over decliners, again, 3792-2662. New highs came in at a whopping 554; there were just 53 new lows. Volume remains subdued, which has become acceptable, but the only people trading are funds and pros. It's kind of a closed loop, but as long as nobody sell, stocks will just keep going up. That cannot happen indefinitely, however, and the longer the rise, usually the steeper the fall. The rally is now in its 11th month without a meaningful correction, a great time to SELL.

NYSE Volume 4,470,046,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,301,493,500

Hooray! Oil dipped 30 cents, to $79.35, and natural gas, after a big buildup on CNBC, saw its price shaved by 11 cents, to $5.57. Seems demand for the #1 energy product just hasn't been as great as those speculating for higher prices had hoped. Its already nearly doubled since just 8 months ago, and the US supply is still at 100 years or more. If supply and demand economics were truly in play (they're not, the price is manipulated by big energy firms - you know who they are), natural gas would be selling at wholesale for about $2/1000 btu, and your heating bill would be half of what it is now.

Unfortunately, most Americans who heat with natural gas are stuck with the absurdly high prices charged by local monopoly utilities. Thus, we overpay, and have been for years, especially since deregulation (thanks again, Ronald Reagan).

The stable commodities, the ones you should own, gold and silver, each registered solid gains. Gold added $7.10, to $1,144.00, while silver was up 9 cents, to $18.64. Both are on the verge of major breakouts, especially silver, but Wall Street hates these commodities because they compete with the electrons and protons and pieces of paper they like to peddle, stocks.

Were gold and silver allowed to rise to their actual inflation-adjusted levels, they might be double or triple where they are now. Even if the Wall Street shorts don't cover, they still should return better than stocks for years to come.

Getting What You Want, part 1

One often has to go to extreme measures in order to achieve goals. There are forces working against you, like headwinds keeping a kite grounded or a plane slowed. Sometimes, these headwinds are being blown by your trading partner, or, in layman's terms, your buyer, if you're a seller.

I recently completed a successful negotiation for some items priced about 3 times what I had originally expected to get for them. The negotiations consisted of me asking the prospect for an offer. When he refused and asked me to name my price, I used the first rule of haggling: go high and then add 20%. To my surprise, the prospect was agreeable to my price and terms, but, as I found out, was a chronic payment-delayer, continually adding a day and an excuse for when the transaction would be completed.

This activity continued over the course of 6 days, until I finally took action and laid it out in the simplest of terms, that the deal had to be done, or he should walk. After an abrupt retort, at which point the prospect was willing to walk away, I was forced to detail his abhorrent behavior in quite unsavory terms (in other words, I swore at him up and down, called him names and shamed him). I thought the deal was then kaput, but, to my surprise, the prospect actually was swayed and contacted me, explaining that he thought I was right. A few hours later, the deal was done, even though I called him names and told him I would have had sold to him for less had he made a reasonable offer in the first place, but instead decided to let me set the price (and, by that, the agenda).

So, the moral is that if a deal is breaking down, and you believe that the other party is stalling - for whatever reason, it's not important - put him or her on the spot very aggressively. Be the lion and you'll find many lambs upon which to feast.

That's one way of getting what you want, or, in this case, even more.

For those suckers in stocks, today was a good day. all of the major indices posted gains, with the Dow jones Industrials close to 52-week highs.

Gold and silver were also higher, but, if you had money in your pocket, your investment was safe and not exposed to any risk except that of somebody robbing you.

You must learn to love cash. It has no equal as far as liquidity is concerned, it takes up very little space, and can buy more things, especially things by which you can make more cash. It's tax-free once in your possession and nobody has to know how much or how little you have of it. With a little, you can buy a decent meal. With a lot, the world's your oyster.

Every minute of every waking day should be an effort to raise more cash. Even as I write this, tiny increments of cash are headed my way, in a never-ending flow (well, as long as the advertising market remains intact). I have various web sites and blogs which generate cash all day and all night. Over the past 5 years, it's been the most remarkable, reliable source of cash I have found. The best part of it is that I incrementally improve my earnings with more traffic. More eyeballs = more page views = more $$ for me and my partners.

If you don't have a stream of income like mine, you're going to be left to find other ways to make money, probably a job, the most degrading, insecure, life-cheating device ever invented. The job has enslaved millions and millions of people who could be otherwise leading normal, productive lives. If you have a job, I'm sorry. I your boss is an absolute ass, too bad. I've been there, many years ago. Didn't like it. Moved on.

Having a regular job is about the absolute worst way I can imagine going through life. The alarm clock, the traffic, the meetings, the BS, the commute home, are all so conducive to wasting one's life that I chose to avoid that path completely. Now, there are the benefits of a regular check, until you get laid off, that is, or fired, but how many of us use that money wisely to free ourselves from the mordant, the mundane, the mortal blows of employment?

You need to find a way out of the rat race. Here's my simple tip for the day: Sell something on ebay. Anything, one item a week at least. You can find something around the house that you don't use, want or need. Somebody will buy it. Put the money you make into a tin or bank or bottle, and leave it there. Keep adding every week. Just keep adding to it. You'll find the habit addictive and maybe, in 2 years or 10 years, you'll have enough to do whatever you want with your life. You'll have enough to quit your job and become a surfer, or a guitarist or something that doesn't involve checking in on a daily basis with a boss, who, by the way, could give a sh-t about you or your life.

Dow 10,680.77, +53.51 (0.50%)
NASDAQ 2,307.90, +25.59 (1.12%)
S&P 500 1,145.68, +9.46 (0.83%)
NYSE Composite 7,430.14, +59.69 (0.81%)

Advancers beat decliners, 4581-1924. New Highs: 405; New Lows: 55.

NYSE Volume 4,821,581,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,348,554,000

Oil, -$1.14, $79.65. Gold, +$8.60, $1,138.00. Silver, +$0.15, $18.40.

See ya.

Two-Cent Pennies

How did your stocks do today? Did they follow the general path lower, or were you one of the enlightened who was smart enough - or lucky enough - to buy the right stocks at the right time. From an investment point-of-view, today was a good day to buy. Always buy on down days and sell on up days, if you can.

That's how the stock market works - in reverse. You almost have to be counter-counter intuitive to make money trading stocks, although, if you have enough dough, like Warren Buffett, for instance, you buy whole companies, or at least significant enough stakes in those companies that you get a seat on the board and have a say in how the company is actually run.

Buffett's management style is pretty hands-off, unless the man wants something specific. He's a smart, seasoned buyer of companies, putting his money to work at firms which meet his strict criteria. Low profit margins? Out. Unproven technology? Out. Inexperienced management team? Out. We should all be so disciplined and successful, but we're not, mostly because we require more bang for our bucks. Trying to make money with a billion dollars is a lot easier than making good lettuce with $100,000.

Most people have some money in speculative ventures, more in "safe" investments, and probably very little in dividend-producing companies, which are usually the best of breed, by the way. Buffett's companies all return dividends. That used to be the mantra. Now it's "trading, playing and going all in." Wall Street has the little guy by the short hairs, but not old, wise Warren. That's why he's rich and you're not.

Anyway, stocks were off their gains today, putting to rest a swell winning streak on the S&P (5 days? 6? Who cares?)

Dow 10,626.43, -37.56 (0.35%)
NASDAQ 2,282.31, -30.10 (1.30%)
S&P 500 1,136.18, -10.80 (0.94%)
NYSE Composite 7,370.48, -78.57 (1.05%)

Losers beat winners, 4795-1728, almost 3:1, so if you're one of the regular folk, you probably got beaten down today. Doesn't feel very good, does it? If that money was in cash, you'd still have it all. But, you want to play the market, so speculate away and watch your kid's college fund or your own retirement saunter off further into the distance.

There were 299 new highs and just 36 new lows. I've been saying that the highs were close to topping out, and yesterday, they did, with over 900 issues making new tops. Looks like we're in for a downhill ride from here. Watch what happens this earnings season. Money will be heading out of stocks either just before they release their 4th quarter and full year data, or directly afterwards. Whether their reports are good or bad, big money will be looking to lock in profits. Stocks, over the next three weeks in particular, are not going to be good investments.

NYSE Volume 5,231,147,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,268,025,250

This is a great time to be in gold or silver, as is any time. Here's a question? How much of your portfolio is in actual gold or silver? Not an EFT - those are for suckers - but actual phycial gold and/or silver coins, bars, high-end jewelry that can be easily converted to cash at a moment's notice. 25%, 15%, 10%, none? Most people have less than 1% in physical precious metals, and that's a real shame, because, well, gold's up something like 400% in the past 6 years and silver has appreciated nicely as well.

There's a reason for that. It's because paper money and stocks are sometimes worth less today than yesterday. As far as commodities are concerned, gold fell $22.00, to $1,129.30, while silver dropped 34 cents, to $18.36. Oil slipped $1.73, to $80.79. It's still overpriced. But gold and silver just seem to keep going higher. If investors ever get a whiff of inflation (there isn't any, right now), silver is likely to double in two year's time. Gold will probably do as well if not better. People love gold, and there isn't much of it around.

Getting to the title of this post, when is a penny worth 2 cents?

The answer is pretty simple: When the penny in question was minted between 1909 and 1982 (with the exception of 1943, when steel was used in place of copper) and copper is priced above $3.10/pound (rough estimate). Right now, pennies from those dates (95% copper) are worth 2.2 cents in melt value. So, if you can find somebody who will pay you fair value, you can double your money on your old pennies. You can check on how much old pennies are worth here. And if your pennies happen to be from prior to 1959, they're called "wheaties" after the wheat stamping on the backs, before we started putting an image of the Lincoln Memorial on the back of pennies. They're worth even more, because people like and collect them.

You can get an idea of what "wheaties" are worth, here. Expect those prices to rise.

So, if somebody mentions the old adage, a penny saved is a penny earned, you can smile wryly, knowing that it's now 2 cents, and maybe more.

This is getting a little bit old, isn't it?

Stocks were generally up today, though the NASDAQ was down. So what? Are you richer, poorer, or just think you are?

I've been posting here almost every business day for more than 3 years and stocks have gone up, down and sideways without much to do with underlying fundamentals, or charts, or anything other than buyer and seller sentiment. I've come to some conclusions, most of which point up the futility of trading in stocks. After all, you are buying into something over which you have no control - unless you're on the BOD - and subject to the whims of the market, general sentiment, the perception of analysts and all sorts of other outside influences.

What are stocks, really? Just pieces of paper, as the renowned Jim Cramer might say. It's worse than that, really. They are electonic bits and bytes. The little numbers you see in your investment accounts are electrons, protons, neutrons. You really don't own anything. You just think you do.

From my perspective, there really isn't anything you should want to own other than hard assets - real estate, gold, silver, art, rarities, currency, automobiles, articles of known value and clothing. Everything else, unless it is being put to use as a business, is pretty much without much value.

Most people these days don't know a thing about money and how to use it properly. Many people actually believe in a system that works, with a government that cares about our well-being and proper values for everything. If the events of the past 24 months or thereabout have taught anybody anything, it should have been a lesson how the federal government and Wall Street are in cahoots to preserve each other's wealth and best interests, not those of the ordinary citizen, and, as such, neither should be trusted, and further, the stocks they are selling are not to be trusted as reliable investments, either.

The current economies of the nations - great and small - are such that they could be whisked away in an instant and entire peoples thrust into despair. Currencies fluctuate; stocks and bonds go up and down. Is this as it should be? I think not. There should be more stability in our economy, though despite the efforts of the investment world, the mainstream media and the federal government to have us believe that our system is sound, and stable, it is far from it.

I may go on posting every day, maybe even more often than just once a day, but I am not going to talk about stocks to any great extent in the future. Instead, I'll be focusing this blog on more practical applications of what to do with your money other than to buy and sell electronic representations of shares of company X, Y or Z. Your (and mine) financial future is at risk. It is up to all of us to devise a better system.

Dow 10,663.99, +45.80 (0.43%)
NASDAQ 2,312.41, -4.76 (0.21%)
S&P 500 1,146.98, +2.00 (0.17%)
NYSE Composite 7,449.05, +23.70 (0.32%)

Gold gained $12.80, to $1,151.70. Silver was up another 23 cents, to $18.70. Gold and silver are actual commodities you can own and keep. Their prices, and the way they've been rising over the past 10 years, is telling you something. Listen carefully and you can here them say, "we are safe. We are real money, not fiat paper."

NYSE Volume 4,741,295,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,088,954,250

Tomorrow, and in days ahead, we'll focus more on actual wealth and how to build it, rather than on the nuanced reproductions of it which Wall Street sells.

One last thought: Stock gains are taxable, and at varying rates. Ask yourself if that's right. When you make money with your money, you pay taxes on the gains. Should not the government give back when you lose?

It's a grand scam and ordinary people need not be involved in it.

Poor Employment Picture Doesn't Faze Wall Street

The highly-anticipated December Non-farms payroll report, issued by the Commerce Department prior to the opening bell, didn't have much of an effect on the overall tone of trading in the final day of the first week of 2010. The report showed a loss of 85,000 jobs for the month, far worse than expected, but traders seemed unmoved and the major indices, while trending lower most of the session, still managed to post small gains, primarily due to the weaker dollar.

As has been the case for the past 10 months, stocks just keep going up, no matter the news. Analysts and professionals seem to be able to twist any data into positive signs of recovery, just the kind of attitude tha leads to bubble-like markets, over-bought conditions and stock which have multiples that are based more on fiction than the reality of fundamental analysis.

Using the stock indices as yardsticks, one would believe that we're 60% better than we were a year ago. At the very least, that stocks are worth 60% more, or will be. One can only imagine the short positions being taken up by the truly savvy players in anticipation of what are likely to be shaky 4th quarter reports from a slew of companies over the next two to three weeks.

It should be a spectacle worth witnessing.

Dow 10,618.19, +11.33 (0.11%)
NASDAQ 2,317.17, +17.12 (0.74%)
S&P 500 1,144.98, +3.29 (0.29%)
NYSE Composite 7,425.35, +31.42 (0.42%)

Advancing issues led decliners, 4059-2409, the margin building through the week to its best level on Friday. New highs were achieved by 697 stocks, with only 80 making new lows. Volume moderated a bit from the previous two sessions, but remained solid. Those chasing performance may have taken a wait-and-see approach and an early exit for the weekend.

NYSE Volume 4,872,173,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,163,779,500

The commodity markets lollygagged through the day. Crude oil gained all of 9 cents, to $82.75 per barrel. With the weaker dollar underpinning trades, gold rose $5.50, to $1,139.20. Silver continued its ascent, gaining 12 cents, to $18.46. The speculation in natural gas seems to have gone to its limit, near term, with that commodity losing 5 cents, to $5.71/mmbtu.

For the week, stocks trended higher, though Friday's finish was suspect, with almost all of the action commencing in a frantic final half hour. Most of the progress for the week was made on Monday, when traders kicked off 2010 with the best gains.

Alcoa kicks off earnings season on Monday, though one company's results are unlikely to move markets dramatically.